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1.  A marginalized conditional linear model for longitudinal binary data when informative dropout occurs in continuous time 
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)  2011;13(2):355-368.
Within the pattern-mixture modeling framework for informative dropout, conditional linear models (CLMs) are a useful approach to deal with dropout that can occur at any point in continuous time (not just at observation times). However, in contrast with selection models, inferences about marginal covariate effects in CLMs are not readily available if nonidentity links are used in the mean structures. In this article, we propose a CLM for long series of longitudinal binary data with marginal covariate effects directly specified. The association between the binary responses and the dropout time is taken into account by modeling the conditional mean of the binary response as well as the dependence between the binary responses given the dropout time. Specifically, parameters in both the conditional mean and dependence models are assumed to be linear or quadratic functions of the dropout time; and the continuous dropout time distribution is left completely unspecified. Inference is fully Bayesian. We illustrate the proposed model using data from a longitudinal study of depression in HIV-infected women, where the strategy of sensitivity analysis based on the extrapolation method is also demonstrated.
doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxr041
PMCID: PMC3297830  PMID: 22133756
Bayesian analysis; HIV/AIDS; Marginal model; Missing data; Sensitivity analysis
2.  A multistate model for events defined by prolonged observation 
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)  2010;12(1):102-111.
Time-to-event and similar analyses can be problematic if the event of interest is operationally defined by some condition being true for a prolonged period of time. A particular example of this, remission in psoriatic arthritis, is considered in detail for illustration. A 3-state model is proposed for characterizing the transition rates into and out of remission. Remission is linked to an initial and subsequent state for the purpose of introducing the condition that remission must be of some duration to be clinically meaningful. The model is compared with alternative approaches that have been used in such situations. These involve 2-state models where the duration of remission is allowed for through different definitions for the time of entry into remission. Both definitions are linked to prolonged observation of a particular clinical state.
doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxq041
PMCID: PMC3006122  PMID: 20581216
Misclassification; Multistate models; Time to remission
3.  Varying-coefficient models for longitudinal processes with continuous-time informative dropout 
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)  2009;11(1):93-110.
Dropout is a common occurrence in longitudinal studies. Building upon the pattern-mixture modeling approach within the Bayesian paradigm, we propose a general framework of varying-coefficient models for longitudinal data with informative dropout, where measurement times can be irregular and dropout can occur at any point in continuous time (not just at observation times) together with administrative censoring. Specifically, we assume that the longitudinal outcome process depends on the dropout process through its model parameters. The unconditional distribution of the repeated measures is a mixture over the dropout (administrative censoring) time distribution, and the continuous dropout time distribution with administrative censoring is left completely unspecified. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from the posterior distribution of the repeated measures given the dropout (administrative censoring) times; Bayesian bootstrapping on the observed dropout (administrative censoring) times is carried out to obtain marginal covariate effects. We illustrate the proposed framework using data from a longitudinal study of depression in HIV-infected women; the strategy for sensitivity analysis on unverifiable assumption is also demonstrated.
doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxp040
PMCID: PMC2800163  PMID: 19837655
HIV/AIDS; Missing data; Nonparametric regression; Penalized splines
4.  Bias in 2-part mixed models for longitudinal semicontinuous data 
Biostatistics (Oxford, England)  2009;10(2):374-389.
Semicontinuous data in the form of a mixture of zeros and continuously distributed positive values frequently arise in biomedical research. Two-part mixed models with correlated random effects are an attractive approach to characterize the complex structure of longitudinal semicontinuous data. In practice, however, an independence assumption about random effects in these models may often be made for convenience and computational feasibility. In this article, we show that bias can be induced for regression coefficients when random effects are truly correlated but misspecified as independent in a 2-part mixed model. Paralleling work on bias under nonignorable missingness within a shared parameter model, we derive and investigate the asymptotic bias in selected settings for misspecified 2-part mixed models. The performance of these models in practice is further evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. Additionally, the potential bias is investigated when artificial zeros, due to left censoring from some detection or measuring limit, are incorporated. To illustrate, we fit different 2-part mixed models to the data from the University of Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Clinic, the aim being to examine whether there are differential effects of disease activity and damage on physical functioning as measured by the health assessment questionnaire scores over the course of psoriatic arthritis. Some practical issues on variance component estimation revealed through this data analysis are considered.
doi:10.1093/biostatistics/kxn044
PMCID: PMC2648907  PMID: 19136448
Correlated random effects; Excess zeros; Outcome-dependent sampling; Repeated measures

Results 1-4 (4)