Rationale: Bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BAL) from human lung allografts demonstrates the presence of a multipotent mesenchymal stromal cell population. However, the clinical relevance of this novel cellular component of BAL and its association with bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), a disease marked by progressive airflow limitation secondary to fibrotic obliteration of the small airways, remains to be determined.

Objectives: In this study we investigate the association of number of mesenchymal stromal cells in BAL with development of BOS in human lung transplant recipients.

Methods: Mesenchymal colony-forming units (CFUs) were quantitated in a cohort of 405 BAL samples obtained from 162 lung transplant recipients. Poisson generalized estimating equations were used to determine the predictors of BAL mesenchymal CFU count.

Measurements and Main Results: Higher CFU counts were noted early post-transplantation; time from transplant to BAL of greater than 3 months predicted 0.4-fold lower CFU counts (P = 0.0001). BOS diagnosis less than or equal to 365 days before BAL was associated with a 2.11-fold higher CFU count (P = 0.02). There were 2.62- and 2.70-fold higher CFU counts noted in the presence of histologic diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans (P = 0.05) and organizing pneumonia (0.0003), respectively. In BAL samples obtained from BOS-free patients greater than 6 months post-transplantation (n = 173), higher mesenchymal CFU counts (≥10) significantly predicted BOS onset in both univariate (hazard ratio, 5.61; 95% CI, 3.03–10.38; P < 0.0001) and multivariate (hazard ratio, 5.02; 95% CI, 2.40–10.51; P < 0.0001) Cox regression analysis.

Conclusions: Measurement of mesenchymal CFUs in the BAL provides predictive information regarding future BOS onset.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and other idiopathic interstitial pneumonias (IIPs) have similar clinical and radiographic features, but their histopathology, response to therapy, and natural history differ. A surgical lung biopsy is often required to distinguish between these entities.

Objectives: We sought to determine if clinical variables could predict a histopathologic diagnosis of IPF in patients without honeycomb change on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT).

Methods: Data from 97 patients with biopsy-proven IPF and 38 patients with other IIPs were examined. Logistic regression models were built to identify the clinical variables that predict histopathologic diagnosis of IPF.

Measurements and Main Results: Increasing age and average total HRCT interstitial score on HRCT scan of the chest may predict a biopsy confirmation of IPF. Sex, pulmonary function, presence of desaturation, or distance walked during a 6-minute walk test did not help discriminate pulmonary fibrosis from other IIPs.

Conclusions: Clinical data may be used to predict a diagnosis of IPF over other IIPs. Validation of these data with a prospective study is needed.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is characterized by progressive dyspnea, impaired gas exchange, and ultimate mortality.

Objectives: To test the hypothesis that maximal oxygen uptake during cardiopulmonary exercise testing at baseline and with short-term longitudinal measures would predict mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Methods: Data from 117 patients with IPF and longitudinal cardiopulmonary exercise tests were examined retrospectively. Survival was calculated from the date of the first cardiopulmonary exercise test.

Measurements and Main Results: Patients with baseline maximal oxygen uptake less than 8.3 ml/kg/min had an increased risk of death (n = 8; hazard ratio, 3.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.10–9.56; P = 0.03) after adjusting for age, gender, smoking status, baseline forced vital capacity, and baseline diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide. We were unable to define a unit change in maximal oxygen uptake that predicted survival in our cohort.

Conclusions: We conclude that a threshold maximal oxygen uptake of 8.3 ml/kg/min during cardiopulmonary exercise testing at baseline adds prognostic information for patients with IPF.

Rationale: The predictive value of longitudinal change in BODE (Body mass index, airflow Obstruction, Dyspnea, and Exercise capacity) index has received limited attention. We hypothesized that decrease in a modified BODE (mBODE) would predict survival in National Emphysema Treatment Trial (NETT) patients.

Objectives: To determine how the mBODE score changes in patients with lung volume reduction surgery versus medical therapy and correlations with survival.

Methods: Clinical data were recorded using standardized instruments. The mBODE was calculated and patient-specific mBODE trajectories during 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up were estimated using separate regressions for each patient. Patients were classified as having decreasing, stable, increasing, or missing mBODE based on their absolute change from baseline. The predictive ability of mBODE change on survival was assessed using multivariate Cox regression models. The index of concordance was used to directly compare the predictive ability of mBODE and its separate components.

Measurements and Main Results: The entire cohort (610 treated medically and 608 treated surgically) was characterized by severe airflow obstruction, moderate breathlessness, and increased mBODE at baseline. A wide distribution of change in mBODE was seen at follow-up. An increase in mBODE of more than 1 point was associated with increased mortality in surgically and medically treated patients. Surgically treated patients were less likely to experience death or an increase greater than 1 in mBODE. Indices of concordance showed that mBODE change predicted survival better than its separate components.

Conclusions: The mBODE demonstrates short- and intermediate-term responsiveness to intervention in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Increase in mBODE of more than 1 point from baseline to 6, 12, and 24 months of follow-up was predictive of subsequent mortality. Change in mBODE may prove a good surrogate measure of survival in therapeutic trials in severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 00000606).

Rationale: Limited data on sex differences in advanced COPD are available.

Objectives: To compare male and female emphysema patients with severe disease.

Methods: One thousand fifty-three patients (38.8% female) evaluated for lung volume reduction surgery as part of the National Emphysema Treatment Trial were analyzed.

Measurements and Main Results: Detailed clinical, physiological, and radiological assessment, including quantitation of emphysema severity and distribution from helical chest computed tomography, was completed. In a subgroup (n = 101), airway size and thickness was determined by histological analyses of resected tissue. Women were younger and exhibited a lower body mass index (BMI), shorter smoking history, less severe airflow obstruction, lower Dlco and arterial Po2, higher arterial Pco2, shorter six-minute walk distance, and lower maximal wattage during oxygen-supplemented cycle ergometry. For a given FEV1% predicted, age, number of pack-years, and proportion of emphysema, women experienced greater dyspnea, higher modified BODE, more depression, lower SF-36 mental component score, and lower quality of well-being. Overall emphysema was less severe in women, with the difference from men most evident in the outer peel of the lung. Females had thicker small airway walls relative to luminal perimeters.

Conclusions: In patients with severe COPD, women, relative to men, exhibit anatomically smaller airway lumens with disproportionately thicker airway walls, and emphysema that is less extensive and characterized by smaller hole size and less peripheral involvement.

Rationale: Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS), defined by loss of lung function, develops in the majority of lung transplant recipients. However, there is a paucity of information on the subsequent course of lung function in these patients.

Objectives: To characterize the course of FEV1 over time after development of BOS and to determine the predictors that influence the rate of functional decline of FEV1.

Methods: FEV1% predicted (FEV1%pred) trajectories were studied in 111 lung transplant recipients with BOS by multivariate, linear, mixed-effects statistical models.

Measurements and Main Results: FEV1%pred varied over time after BOS onset, with the steepest decline typically seen in the first 6 months (12% decline; p < 0.0001). Bilateral lung transplant recipients had significantly higher FEV1%pred at BOS diagnosis (71 vs. 47%; p < 0.0001) and at 24 months after BOS onset (58 vs. 41%; p = 0.0001). Female gender and pretransplant diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were associated with a steeper decline in FEV1%pred in the first 6 months after BOS diagnosis (p = 0.02 and 0.04, respectively). A fall in FEV1 greater than 20% in the 6 months preceding BOS (termed “rapid onset”) was associated with shorter time to BOS onset (p = 0.01), lower FEV1%pred at BOS onset (p < 0.0001), steeper decline in the first 6 months (p = 0.03), and lower FEV1%pred at 2 years after onset (p = 0.0002).

Conclusions: Rapid onset of BOS, female gender, pretransplant diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and single-lung transplantation are associated with worse pulmonary function after BOS onset.

Rationale: Treatment and prognoses of diffuse parenchymal lung diseases (DPLDs) varies by diagnosis. Obtaining a uniform diagnosis among observers is difficult.

Objectives: Evaluate diagnostic agreement between academic and community-based physicians for patients with DPLDs, and determine if an interactive approach between clinicians, radiologists, and pathologists improved diagnostic agreement in community and academic centers.

Methods: Retrospective review of 39 patients with DPLD. A total of 19 participants reviewed cases at 2 community locations and 1 academic location. Information from the history, physical examination, pulmonary function testing, high-resolution computed tomography, and surgical lung biopsy was collected. Data were presented in the same sequential fashion to three groups of physicians on separate days.

Measurements and Main Results: Each observer's diagnosis was coded into one of eight categories. A κ statistic allowing for multiple raters was used to assess agreement in diagnosis. Interactions between clinicians, radiologists, and pathologists improved interobserver agreement at both community and academic sites; however, final agreement was better within academic centers (κ = 0.55–0.71) than within community centers (κ = 0.32–0.44). Clinically significant disagreement was present between academic and community-based physicians (κ = 0.11–0.56). Community physicians were more likely to assign a final diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis compared with academic physicians.

Conclusions: Significant disagreement exists in the diagnosis of DPLD between physicians based in communities compared with those in academic centers. Wherever possible, patients should be referred to centers with expertise in diffuse parenchymal lung disorders to help clarify the diagnosis and provide suggestions regarding treatment options.

Rationale and Hypothesis: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis is a fatal disease with a variable rate of progression. We hypothesized that changes in distance walked and quantity of desaturation during a six-minute-walk test (6MWT) would add prognostic information to changes in FVC or diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide.

Methods: One hundred ninety-seven patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis were evaluated. Desaturation during the 6MWT was associated with increased mortality even if a threshold of 88% was not reached. Baseline walk distance predicted subsequent walk distance but was not a reliable predictor of subsequent mortality in multivariate survival models. The predictive ability of serial changes in physiology varied when patients were stratified by the presence/absence of desaturation ⩽ 88% during a baseline 6MWT. For patients with a baseline saturation ⩽ 88% during a 6MWT, the strongest observed predictor of mortality was serial change in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide. For patients with saturation > 88% during their baseline walk test, serial decreases in FVC and increases in desaturation area significantly predicted subsequent mortality, whereas decreases in walk distance and in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide displayed less consistent statistical evidence of increasing mortality in our patients.

Conclusion: These data highlight the importance of stratifying patients by degree of desaturation during a 6MWT before attributing prognostic value to serial changes in other physiologic variables.

Rationale: Early diagnosis of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) is critical in understanding pathogenesis and devising therapeutic trials. Although potential-BOS stage (BOS 0-p), encompassing early changes in FEV1 and forced expiratory flow, midexpiratory phase (FEF25–75%), has been proposed, there is a paucity of data validating its utility in single-lung transplantation. Objective: The aim of this study was to define the predictive ability of BOS 0-p in single-lung transplantation. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed spirometric data for 197 single-lung recipients. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of BOS 0-p were examined over time using Kaplan-Meier methodology. Results: BOS 0-p FEV1 was associated with higher sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value than the FEF25–75% criterion over different time periods investigated. The probability of testing positive for BOS 0-p FEV1 in patients with BOS (sensitivity) was 71% at 2 years before the onset of BOS. The probability of being free from development of BOS 0-p FEV1 in patients free of BOS at follow-up (specificity) was 93% within the last year. Of patients who met the BOS 0-p FEV1 criterion, 81% developed BOS or died within 3 years. The specificity and positive predictive value curves for the BOS 0-p FEV1 were significantly different between patients with underlying restrictive versus obstructive physiology (p = 0.05 and 0.01, respectively). Conclusion: The FEV1 criterion for BOS 0-p provides useful predictive information regarding the risk of development of BOS or death in single-lung recipients. The predictive value of this criterion is higher in patients with underlying restriction and is superior to the FEF25–75% criterion.