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1.  Factors that influence survival in a probable Alzheimer disease cohort 
Introduction
This longitudinal study examined multiple factors that influence survival in a cohort of Alzheimer patients followed over two decades.
Methods
Time to death after symptom onset was determined in 641 probable AD patients who were evaluated annually until death or loss to follow-up, and information was entered into a longitudinal database. Date of death was available for everyone including those eventually lost. Baseline variables included age, sex, race, disease severity, a calculated index of rate of initial cognitive decline from symptom onset to cohort entry (pre-progression rate or PPR), years of education, and medical comorbidities (diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, coronary disease, cerebrovascular disease). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to analyze the baseline and/or time dependent association in Mini-mental Status Exam (MMSE) severity, Physical Self Maintenance Scale (PSMS), Persistency Index (PI) of exposure to antipsychotic and antidementia drugs, and psychotic symptoms (hallucinations, delusions) with mortality.
Results
Baseline covariates significantly associated with increased survival were younger age (p = .0016), female sex (p = .0001), and a slower PPR (p < .0001). Overall disease severity at baseline, medical comorbidities, and education did not influence time to death. Time-dependent changes in antipsychotic drug use, development of psychotic symptoms, antidementia drug use, and observed MMSE change were not predictive. In the final model the only time-dependent covariate that significantly decreased survival was worsening of functional ability on the PSMS (hazard ratio = 1.10; CI: 1.07-1.11).
Conclusions
In this large AD cohort survival is influenced by age, sex, and the development of functional disability during follow-up. The most important predictor of mortality was a faster rate of cognitive decline at the initial patient visit (PPR). The currently available antidementia drugs do not prolong survival in Alzheimer patients.
doi:10.1186/alzrt119
PMCID: PMC3506931  PMID: 22594761
3.  Predicting progression of Alzheimer's disease 
Introduction
Clinicians need to predict prognosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD), and researchers need models of progression to develop biomarkers and clinical trials designs. We tested a calculated initial progression rate to see whether it predicted performance on cognition, function and behavior over time, and to see whether it predicted survival.
Methods
We used standardized approaches to assess baseline characteristics and to estimate disease duration, and calculated the initial (pre-progression) rate in 597 AD patients followed for up to 15 years. We designated slow, intermediate and rapidly progressing groups. Using mixed effects regression analysis, we examined the predictive value of a pre-progression group for longitudinal performance on standardized measures. We used Cox survival analysis to compare survival time by progression group.
Results
Patients in the slow and intermediate groups maintained better performance on the cognitive (ADAScog and VSAT), global (CDR-SB) and complex activities of daily living measures (IADL) (P values < 0.001 slow versus fast; P values < 0.003 to 0.03 intermediate versus fast). Interaction terms indicated that slopes of ADAScog and PSMS change for the slow group were smaller than for the fast group, and that rates of change on the ADAScog were also slower for the intermediate group, but that CDR-SB rates increased in this group relative to the fast group. Slow progressors survived longer than fast progressors (P = 0.024).
Conclusions
A simple, calculated progression rate at the initial visit gives reliable information regarding performance over time on cognition, global performance and activities of daily living. The slowest progression group also survives longer. This baseline measure should be considered in the design of long duration Alzheimer's disease clinical trials.
doi:10.1186/alzrt25
PMCID: PMC2874261  PMID: 20178566
4.  Persistent treatment with cholinesterase inhibitors and/or memantine slows clinical progression of Alzheimer disease 
Introduction
There are no empiric data to support guidelines for duration of therapy with antidementia drugs. This study examined whether persistent use of antidementia drugs slows clinical progression of Alzheimer disease (AD) assessed by repeated measures on serial tests of cognition and function.
Methods
Six hundred forty-one probable AD patients were followed prospectively at an academic center over 20 years. Cumulative drug exposure was expressed as a persistency index (PI) reflecting total years of drug use divided by total years of disease symptoms. Baseline and annual testing consisted of Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), Baylor Profound Mental Status Examination (BPMSE), Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB), Physical Self-Maintenance Scale (PSMS), and Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL). Annual change in slope of neuropsychological and functional tests as predicted by follow-up time, PI, and the interaction of these two variables was evaluated.
Results
PI was associated with significantly slower rates of decline (with, without adjustment for covariates) on MMSE (P < 0.0001), PSMS (P < 0.05), IADL (P < 0.0001), and CDR-SB (P < 0.001). There was an insignificant trend (P = 0.053) for the PI to be associated with slower rate of decline on BPMSE. The association of PI with ADAS-Cog followed a quadratic trend (P < 0.01). Analysis including both linear and quadratic terms suggests that PI slowed ADAS-Cog decline temporarily. The magnitude of the favorable effect of a rate change in PI was: MMSE 1 point per year, PSMS 0.4 points per year, IADL 1.4 points per year, and CDR-SB 0.6 points per year. The change in mean test scores is additive over the follow-up period (3 ┬▒ 1.94 years).
Conclusions
Persistent drug treatment had a positive impact on AD progression assessed by multiple cognitive, functional, and global outcome measures. The magnitude of the treatment effect was clinically significant. Positive treatment effects were even found in those with advanced disease.
doi:10.1186/alzrt7
PMCID: PMC2874259  PMID: 19845950

Results 1-4 (4)