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1.  Prediction of Diabetes Based on Baseline Metabolic Characteristics in Individuals at High Risk 
Diabetes Care  2013;36(11):3607-3612.
OBJECTIVE
Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DM versus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACT NOW and who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years.
RESULTS
In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, ∆G0–120 during OGTT, HbA1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln ∆I0–120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [∆I0–120/∆G0–120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [∆I0–120/∆G0–120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P < 0.0001) was the variable most closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes.
CONCLUSIONS
In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).
doi:10.2337/dc13-0520
PMCID: PMC3816921  PMID: 24062330
2.  Skeletal Muscle Insulin Resistance Is the Primary Defect in Type 2 Diabetes 
Diabetes Care  2009;32(Suppl 2):S157-S163.
doi:10.2337/dc09-S302
PMCID: PMC2811436  PMID: 19875544
3.  Circulating Fibroblast Growth Factor-21 Is Elevated in Impaired Glucose Tolerance and Type 2 Diabetes and Correlates With Muscle and Hepatic Insulin Resistance 
Diabetes Care  2009;32(8):1542-1546.
OBJECTIVE
Fibroblast growth factor (FGF)-21 is highly expressed in the liver and regulates hepatic glucose production and lipid metabolism in rodents. However, its role in the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes in humans remains to be defined. The aim of this study was to quantitate circulating plasma FGF-21 levels and examine their relationship with insulin sensitivity in subjects with varying degrees of obesity and glucose tolerance.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Forty-one subjects (8 lean with normal glucose tolerance [NGT], 9 obese with NGT, 12 with impaired fasting glucose [IFG]/impaired glucose tolerance [IGT], and 12 type 2 diabetic subjects) received an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and a hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp (80 mU/m2 per min) combined with 3-[3H] glucose infusion.
RESULTS
Subjects with type 2 diabetes, subjects with IGT, and obese subjects with NGT were insulin resistant compared with lean subjects with NGT. Plasma FGF-21 levels progressively increased from 3.9 ± 0.3 ng/ml in lean subjects with NGT to 4.9 ± 0.2 in obese subjects with NGT to 5.2 ± 0.2 in subjects with IGT and to 5.3 ± 0.2 in type 2 diabetic subjects. FGF-21 levels correlated inversely with whole-body (primarily reflects muscle) insulin sensitivity (r = −0.421, P = 0.007) and directly with the hepatic insulin resistance index (r = 0.344, P = 0.034). FGF-21 levels also correlated with measures of glycemia (fasting plasma glucose [r = 0.312, P = 0.05], 2-h plasma glucose [r = 0.414, P = 0.01], and A1C [r = 0.325, P = 0.04]).
CONCLUSIONS
Plasma FGF-21 levels are increased in insulin-resistant states and correlate with hepatic and whole-body (muscle) insulin resistance. FGF-21 may play a role in pathogenesis of hepatic and whole-body insulin resistance in type 2 diabetes.
doi:10.2337/dc09-0684
PMCID: PMC2713625  PMID: 19487637

Results 1-3 (3)