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1.  A Smoking-based Carcinogenesis Model for Lung Cancer Risk Prediction 
Lung cancer is the leading cancer killer for both men and women worldwide. Over 80% of lung cancers are attributed to smoking. In this analysis, the authors propose to use a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model to predict an individual’s lung cancer risk based on gender and smoking history. The TSCE model is traditionally fitted to prospective cohort data. Here, the authors describe a new method that allows for the reconstruction of cohort data from the combination of risk factor data obtained from a case-control study, and tabled incidence/mortality rate data, and discuss alternative approaches. The method is applied to fit a TSCE model based on smoking. The fitted model is validated against independent data from the control arm of a lung cancer chemoprevention trial, CARET, where it accurately predicted the number of lung cancer deaths observed.
doi:10.1002/ijc.25834
PMCID: PMC3116088  PMID: 21140453
TSCE model; lung cancer; risk prediction; smoking
2.  Dietary α-, β-, γ- and δ-tocopherols in lung cancer risk 
Studies of vitamin E and cancer have focused on the α-tocopherol form of the vitamin. However, other forms of vitamin E, in particular γ-tocopherol may have unique mechanistic characteristics relevant to lung cancer prevention. In an ongoing study of 1,088 incident lung cancer cases and 1,414 healthy matched controls, we studied the associations between 4 tocopherols (α-, β-, γ-, and δ-tocopherol) in the diet and lung cancer risk. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, the adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of lung cancer for increasing quartiles of dietary α-tocopherol intake were 1.0, 0.63 (0.50–0.79), 0.58 (0.44–0.76) and 0.39 (0.28–0.53), respectively (p-trend < 0.0001). For dietary intake of β-tocopherol, the OR and 95% CI for all subjects were: 1.0, 0.79 (0.63–0.98), 0.59 (0.45–0.78) and 0.56 (0.42–0.74), respectively (p-trend < 0.0001). Similar results for dietary γ-tocopherol intake were observed: 1.0, 0.84 (0.67–1.06), 0.76 (0.59–0.97) and 0.56 (0.42–0.75), respectively (p- trend = 0.0002). No significant association between δ-tocopherol intake and lung cancer risk was detected. When the 4 tocopherols were summed as total tocopherol intake, a monotonic risk reduction was also observed. When we entered the other tocopherols in our model, only the association with dietary α-tocopherol intake remained significant; i.e., increasing intake of dietary α-tocopherol accounted for 34–53% reductions in lung cancer risk. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the independent associations of the 4 forms of dietary tocopherol (α-, β-, γ- and δ-tocohperol) on lung cancer risk. Given the limitations with case-control studies, these findings need to be confirmed in further investigations.
doi:10.1002/ijc.23649
PMCID: PMC3380426  PMID: 18546288
dietary tocopherols; lung cancer risk; diet and lung cancer; vitamin E and lung cancer

Results 1-2 (2)