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1.  Attributable Causes of Esophageal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(8):e42281.
Background
To estimate the contribution of tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake to esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China.
Methodology/Principal Findings
We calculated the proportion of esophageal cancer attributable to four known modifiable risk factors [population attributable fraction (PAF)]. Exposure data was taken from meta-analyses and large-scale national surveys of representative samples of the Chinese population. Data on relative risks were also from meta-analyses and large-scale prospective studies. Esophageal cancer mortality and incidence came from the 3rd national death cause survey and population-based cancer registries in China. We estimated that 87,065 esophageal cancer deaths (men 67,686; women: 19,379) and 108,206 cases (men: 83,968, women: 24,238) were attributable to tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake in China in 2005. About 17.9% of esophageal cancer deaths among men and 1.9% among women were attributable to tobacco smoking. About 15.2% of esophageal cancer deaths in men and 1.3% in women were caused by alcohol drinking. Low vegetable intake was responsible for 4.3% esophageal cancer deaths in men and 4.1% in women. The fraction of esophageal cancer deaths attributable to low fruit intake was 27.1% in men and 28.0% in women. Overall, 46% of esophageal cancers (51% in men and 33% in women) were attributable to these four modifiable risk factors.
Conclusions/Significance
Tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, low vegetable intake and low fruit intake were responsible for 46% of esophageal cancer mortality and incidence in China in 2005. These findings provide useful data for developing guidelines for esophageal cancer prevention and control in China.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0042281
PMCID: PMC3410925  PMID: 22876312
2.  Serum pepsinogens and risk of gastric and esophageal cancers in the General Population Nutrition Intervention Trial cohort 
Gut  2009;58(5):636-642.
Objective
Low serum pepsinogen I (PGI) and low pepsinogen I/pepsinogen II ratio (PGI/II ratio) are markers of gastric fundic atrophy. We aimed to prospectively test the association between serum PGI/II ratio and risks of gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma, gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.
Design
Case-cohort study nested in a prospective cohort with over 15 years of follow-up.
Setting
Rural region of the People’s Republic of China.
Subjects
Men and women aged 40-69 at study baseline.
Main outcome measures
Adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between serum PGI/II ratio and caner risk
Results
Compared to subjects with PGI/II ratio of > 4, those with ≤4 had HRs (95%CIs) of 2.72 (1.77-4.20) and 2.12 (1.42-3.16) for noncardia and cardia gastric cancers, respectively. Risk of both cancers were also increased when other cut points ranging from 3 to 6, or when we used quartile models, or nonlinear continuous models. Risk of ESCC was marginally increased in those with PGI/II ratio ≤4, with HR (95% CI) of 1.56 (0.99-2.47), but quartile models and continuous models showed no increased risk. The nonlinear continuous models suggested that any single cut point collapsed subjects with dissimilar gastric cancer risks, and that using cut points was not an efficient use of data in evaluating these associations.
Conclusion
In this prospective study, we found similar and significantly increased risks of noncardia and cardia gastric adenocarcinomas in subjects with low PGI/II ratio, but little evidence for an association with ESCC risk.
doi:10.1136/gut.2008.168641
PMCID: PMC2792746  PMID: 19136509
Gastric cancer; Esophageal cancer; Pepsinogen; Case-cohort

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