Objectives

Assess population attributable fractions (PAFs) for late postnatal transmission (LPT) of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) in a cohort of HIV-1-exposed infants.

Methods

We used data established from a risk factor analysis of LPT (negative HIV-1 results through the 4-6 week visit, but positive assays thereafter through the 12-month visit) from a perinatal clinical trial conducted in three sub-Saharan countries. PAFs were calculated as the proportions of excess LPTs attributed to identified risk factors.

Results

For the cohort of 1317 infants, 206 (15.6%) had only low maternal CD4+ counts (< 200 cells/mm3), 332 (25.2%) had only high maternal plasma viral loads (VLs) (> 50 000 copies/mL), and 81 (6.2%) had both low CD4+ counts and high VLs. Their PAFs were 26.0% [95% confidence interval (CI), 12.0%-36.0%], 37.0% (95% CI, 22.0%-51.0%) and 16.0% (95% CI, 6.0%-25.0%), respectively.

Conclusions

Our PAF analysis illustrates the public health impact of the substantial proportion of LPTs accounted for by high-risk women with both low CD4+ counts and high VLs. In light of these results, access to and use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) by high-risk HIV-1-infected pregnant women is essential. Additional strategies to reduce LPT for those not meeting criteria for ART should be implemented.

Objectives

To determine the utility of Total Lymphocyte Count (TLC) in predicting the 12 month mortality in HIV infected Ugandan children; to correlate TLC and CD4 cell %.

Design

This is a retrospective data analysis of clinical and laboratory data collected prospectively on 128 HIV infected children in the HIVNET 012 trial.

Methods

TLC and CD4 cell % measurements were obtained at birth, 14 weeks and 12, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months of age and assessed with respect to risk of death within 12 months.

Results

Median TLC/ul (CD4 cell %) were 4150 (41%) at birth, 4900 (24%) at 12 months, 4300 (19%) at 24 months, 4150 (19 %) at 36 months, 4100 (18%) at 48 months and 3800 (20%) at 60 months. The highest risk of mortality within 12 months was 34–37% at birth and declined to 13–15% at 24 months regardless of TLC measurement. The correlation between CD4 cell % and TLC was extremely low overall (r = 0.01).

Conclusion

The TLC did not predict a risk of progression to death within 12 months and therefore TLC alone may not be a useful surrogate marker for determining those children in greatest need for antiretroviral therapy in HIV infected Ugandan children.