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1.  Genome-wide association analysis identifies six new loci associated with forced vital capacity 
Loth, Daan W. | Artigas, María Soler | Gharib, Sina A. | Wain, Louise V. | Franceschini, Nora | Koch, Beate | Pottinger, Tess | Smith, Albert Vernon | Duan, Qing | Oldmeadow, Chris | Lee, Mi Kyeong | Strachan, David P. | James, Alan L. | Huffman, Jennifer E. | Vitart, Veronique | Ramasamy, Adaikalavan | Wareham, Nicholas J. | Kaprio, Jaakko | Wang, Xin-Qun | Trochet, Holly | Kähönen, Mika | Flexeder, Claudia | Albrecht, Eva | Lopez, Lorna M. | de Jong, Kim | Thyagarajan, Bharat | Alves, Alexessander Couto | Enroth, Stefan | Omenaas, Ernst | Joshi, Peter K. | Fall, Tove | Viňuela, Ana | Launer, Lenore J. | Loehr, Laura R. | Fornage, Myriam | Li, Guo | Wilk, Jemma B. | Tang, Wenbo | Manichaikul, Ani | Lahousse, Lies | Harris, Tamara B. | North, Kari E. | Rudnicka, Alicja R. | Hui, Jennie | Gu, Xiangjun | Lumley, Thomas | Wright, Alan F. | Hastie, Nicholas D. | Campbell, Susan | Kumar, Rajesh | Pin, Isabelle | Scott, Robert A. | Pietiläinen, Kirsi H. | Surakka, Ida | Liu, Yongmei | Holliday, Elizabeth G. | Schulz, Holger | Heinrich, Joachim | Davies, Gail | Vonk, Judith M. | Wojczynski, Mary | Pouta, Anneli | Johansson, Åsa | Wild, Sarah H. | Ingelsson, Erik | Rivadeneira, Fernando | Völzke, Henry | Hysi, Pirro G. | Eiriksdottir, Gudny | Morrison, Alanna C. | Rotter, Jerome I. | Gao, Wei | Postma, Dirkje S. | White, Wendy B. | Rich, Stephen S. | Hofman, Albert | Aspelund, Thor | Couper, David | Smith, Lewis J. | Psaty, Bruce M. | Lohman, Kurt | Burchard, Esteban G. | Uitterlinden, André G. | Garcia, Melissa | Joubert, Bonnie R. | McArdle, Wendy L. | Musk, A. Bill | Hansel, Nadia | Heckbert, Susan R. | Zgaga, Lina | van Meurs, Joyce B.J. | Navarro, Pau | Rudan, Igor | Oh, Yeon-Mok | Redline, Susan | Jarvis, Deborah | Zhao, Jing Hua | Rantanen, Taina | O’Connor, George T. | Ripatti, Samuli | Scott, Rodney J. | Karrasch, Stefan | Grallert, Harald | Gaddis, Nathan C. | Starr, John M. | Wijmenga, Cisca | Minster, Ryan L. | Lederer, David J. | Pekkanen, Juha | Gyllensten, Ulf | Campbell, Harry | Morris, Andrew P. | Gläser, Sven | Hammond, Christopher J. | Burkart, Kristin M. | Beilby, John | Kritchevsky, Stephen B. | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Hancock, Dana B. | Williams, O. Dale | Polasek, Ozren | Zemunik, Tatijana | Kolcic, Ivana | Petrini, Marcy F. | Wjst, Matthias | Kim, Woo Jin | Porteous, David J. | Scotland, Generation | Smith, Blair H. | Viljanen, Anne | Heliövaara, Markku | Attia, John R. | Sayers, Ian | Hampel, Regina | Gieger, Christian | Deary, Ian J. | Boezen, H. Marike | Newman, Anne | Jarvelin, Marjo-Riitta | Wilson, James F. | Lind, Lars | Stricker, Bruno H. | Teumer, Alexander | Spector, Timothy D. | Melén, Erik | Peters, Marjolein J. | Lange, Leslie A. | Barr, R. Graham | Bracke, Ken R. | Verhamme, Fien M. | Sung, Joohon | Hiemstra, Pieter S. | Cassano, Patricia A. | Sood, Akshay | Hayward, Caroline | Dupuis, Josée | Hall, Ian P. | Brusselle, Guy G. | Tobin, Martin D. | London, Stephanie J.
Nature genetics  2014;46(7):669-677.
Forced vital capacity (FVC), a spirometric measure of pulmonary function, reflects lung volume and is used to diagnose and monitor lung diseases. We performed genome-wide association study meta-analysis of FVC in 52,253 individuals from 26 studies and followed up the top associations in 32,917 additional individuals of European ancestry. We found six new regions associated at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10−8) with FVC in or near EFEMP1, BMP6, MIR-129-2/HSD17B12, PRDM11, WWOX, and KCNJ2. Two (GSTCD and PTCH1) loci previously associated with spirometric measures were related to FVC. Newly implicated regions were followed-up in samples of African American, Korean, Chinese, and Hispanic individuals. We detected transcripts for all six newly implicated genes in human lung tissue. The new loci may inform mechanisms involved in lung development and pathogenesis of restrictive lung disease.
doi:10.1038/ng.3011
PMCID: PMC4140093  PMID: 24929828
2.  Mid-life physical activity preserves lower extremity function in older adults: Age Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES) - Reykjavik Study 
OBJECTIVES
To examine the long-term association between mid-life physical activity (PA) and lower extremity function (LEF) in late-life.
DESIGN
A longitudinal study with an average of 25 years of follow up.
PARTICIPANTS
A large community-based population of 4753 men and women (mean age 76±6 yrs) residing in Reykjavik, Iceland.
MEASUREMENTS
On the basis of weekly hours of regular PA reported at the mid-life examination, participants were classified as “Active” and “Inactive”. Measures of LEF in late-life included gait speed from 6m walk (meter per second, m/s), Timed Up and Go (TUG, second), and Knee Extension (KE) strength (kg) tests. Linear regression analysis was used to examine the association.
RESULTS
Participants who were active in mid-life had significantly better LEF (faster gait speed,, β = 0.05, p ≤ 0.001; faster TUG time, β = −0.53, p ≤ 0.001; stronger KE strength, β = 1.3, p ≤ 0.001) in late-life compared with those who were not active in mid-life, after adjusting for socio-demographic and cardiovascular risk factors. After adjustment for cognitive function in late life (speed of processing, memory, and executive function), participants who were active in mid-life still had significantly faster gait speed (β = 0.04, p ≤ 0.001), faster TUG time (β = −0.34, p ≤ 0.001), and greater KE strength (β = 0.87, p ≤ 0.001) in old age compared with those who were not active in mid-life.
CONCLUSION
Regular PA reported in mid-life is associated with better performance of LEF in later life, even after controlling for late life cognitive function.
doi:10.1111/jgs.12077
PMCID: PMC4205047  PMID: 23320618
mid-life physical activity; mobility; aging; cognitive function; lower extremity function
3.  Profile and health-related quality of life of Ghanaian stroke survivors 
Background
Stroke is a leading cause of mortality with a major effect on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). There are no previous studies exploring HRQoL among stroke survivors in Ghana, despite the increasing public health significance of the disease in this country. Here we describe the profile of and factors associated with HRQoL among stroke survivors in Ghana.
Methods
This was a cross-sectional study involving 156 stroke survivors and 156 age- and sex-matched, apparently healthy controls. A robust HRQoL questionnaire involving seven domains was used to collect data from the study participants. Clinical epidemiology data were also collected from stroke survivors on parameters such as stroke severity and risk factors. Statistical analyses were performed on the interrelationships among the study variables.
Results
The mean ages of the stroke survivors and healthy controls were 58.0 (standard deviation, 11.4) and 57.6 (standard deviation, 12.0) years, respectively. Fifty-three percent (86) of the stroke survivors had mild stroke and 35.3% (55) had moderate stroke, whereas 12.2% (19) had severe stroke. Ischemic infarction was the prevalent stroke subtype (78.1%). Hypertension was the most common risk factor (89%) among the stroke survivors, followed by diabetes (29%). HRQoL scores ranged from 57.7% (cognitive domain) to 80.0% (spirit domain) for stroke survivors, whereas HRQoL scores of the control group ranged from 65.6% (cognitive domain) to 85.2% (soul domain). For each HRQoL domain, significantly higher scores were observed for the control group compared with the stroke survivors, at P<0.05. Determinants of HRQoL of stroke survivors in multivariate analysis included age, stroke severity, poststroke duration, stroke recurrence, frequency of laughter, and negative emotions.
Conclusion
The most affected HRQoL domains are of the physical, psychoemotional, and cognitive domains. Rehabilitation of stroke patients in this region should include interventions targeted at these domains and modifying the statistical determinants of HRQoL where possible.
doi:10.2147/CIA.S62371
PMCID: PMC4199965  PMID: 25336935
quality of life; stroke; domain; Ghana
4.  Coronary artery calcium and physical performance as determinants of mortality in older age: the AGES-Reykjavik Study 
International journal of cardiology  2013;168(3):2094-2099.
Background
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and physical performance have been shown to be associated with mortality, but it is not clear whether one of them modifies the association. We investigated the association between the extent of CAC and physical performance among older individuals and explored these individual and combined effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) and non-CVD mortality.
Methods
We studied 4074 participants of the AGES-Reykjavik Study who were free from coronary heart disease, had a CAC score calculated from computed tomography scans and had data on mobility limitations and gait speed at baseline in 2002-2006 at a mean age of 76 years. Register-based mortality was available until 2009.
Results
Odds for mobility limitation and slow gait increased according to the extent of CAC. Altogether 645 persons died during the follow-up. High CAC, mobility limitation and slow gait were independent predictors of CVD and non-CVD mortality. The joint effect of CAC and gait speed on non-CVD mortality was synergistic, i.e. compared to those with low CAC and normal gait, the joint effect of high CAC and slow gait exceeded the additive effect of these individual exposures on non-CVD mortality. For CVD mortality, the effect was additive i.e. the joint effect of high CAC and slow gait did not exceed the sum of the individual exposures.
Conclusions
The extent of CAC and decreased physical performance were independent predictors of mortality and the joint presence of these risk factors increased the risk of non-CVD mortality above and beyond the individual effects.
doi:10.1016/j.ijcard.2013.01.067
PMCID: PMC3674198  PMID: 23414742
atherosclerosis; coronary artery calcification; cardiovascular disease risk factors; aging; mortality; epidemiology
5.  Similarities and differences between sexes in regional loss of cortical and trabecular bone in the mid-femoral neck: The AGES-Reykjavik Longitudinal Study 
The risk of hip fracture rises rapidly with age, and is notably higher in women. After falls and prior fragility fractures, the main clinically recognized risk factor for hip fracture is reduced bone density. To better understand the extent to which femoral neck density and structure change with age in each sex, we have carried out a longitudinal study in subjects not treated with agents known to influence bone mineral density to investigate changes in regional cortical thickness, as well as cortical and trabecular bone mineral density at the mid-femoral neck. Segmental QCT analysis was used to assess bone measurements in two anatomic sub-regions, the supero-lateral (superior) and infero-medial (inferior). A total of 400 older individuals (100 men and 300 women, aged 66–90 years) who were participants in the AGES-Reykjavik study, were studied. Participants had two QCT scans of the hip over a median follow-up of 5.1 yr. (mean baseline age 74 yr.). Changes in bone values during follow-up were estimated from mixed effects regression models. At baseline women had lower bone values in the superior region than men. At follow-up all bone values were lower in women, except cortical vBMD inferiorly. The relative losses in all bone values estimated in the superior region were substantially (about threefold) and significantly greater compared to those estimated in the inferior region in both sexes. Women lost cortical thickness and cortical vBMD more rapidly than men in both regions; and this was only weakly reflected in total femoral neck DXA-like results. The higher rate of bone loss in women at critical locations may contribute materially to the greater femoral neck fracture incidence among women than men.
doi:10.1002/jbmr.1960
PMCID: PMC3779495  PMID: 23609070
Cortical thickness; proximal end of femur; aging; longitudinal; QCT
6.  Prevalence and Prognosis of Unrecognized Myocardial Infarction Determined by Cardiac Magnetic Resonance in Older Adults 
Context
Unrecognized myocardial infarction (MI) is prognostically important but electrocardiography (ECG), the main epidemiology tool for detection, is insensitive to MI.
Objective
Determine prevalence and mortality risk for unrecognized MI (UMI) detected by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) or ECG.
Design
ICELAND MI is a cohort substudy of the Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility-Reykjavik Study (enrollment January 2004–January 2007) using ECG or CMR to detect UMI.
Setting
Community dwelling participants in Iceland over age 67.
Participants
936 participants (ages 67–93 years) including 670 who were randomly selected and 266 with diabetes.
Main Outcome Measures
MI prevalence and mortality through September 1, 2011. Results reported with 95% confidence limits and net reclassification improvement (NRI).
Results
Of 936 participants, 91 had recognized MI (RMI; 9.7% CI 8–12%), and 157 had UMI by CMR (17%; CI 14–19%) which was more prevalent than the 46 UMI by ECG (5%; CI 4–6%, p<0.001). Diabetic participants had more UMI by CMR than UMI by ECG (n=72; 21%; CI 17–26% vs. n=15; 4%; CI 2–7%, p<0.001). UMI by CMR was associated with atherosclerosis risk factors, coronary calcium, coronary revascularization, and peripheral vascular disease. Over a median of 6.4 years, 33% (CI 23–43%) of individuals with RMI died (30 of 91) and 28% (CI 21–35%) with UMI died (44 of 157), both higher rates than the 17% (CI 15–20%) with no MI that died (119 of 688). UMI by CMR improved risk stratification for mortality over RMI (NRI: 0.34; CI 0.16–0.53). Adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, and RMI, UMI by CMR remained associated with mortality (HR 1.45 CI 1.02–2.06, absolute risk increase (ARI) 8%) and significantly improved risk stratification for mortality, NRI 0.16 (CI 0.01–0.31)) but UMI by ECG did not (HR 0.88, CI 0.45–1.73 ARI −2%; NRI: −0.05; CI −0.17–0.05). Compared to those with RMI, participants with UMI by CMR used cardiac medications such as statins less often (36%; CI, 28–43% or 56/157 vs.73%; CI 63–82% or 66/91; p<0.001).
Conclusions
In a community-based cohort, the prevalence of UMI by CMR was higher than the prevalence of recognized MI or UMI by ECG, and was associated with increased mortality risk.
doi:10.1001/2012.jama.11089
PMCID: PMC4137910  PMID: 22948699
7.  Persistence of the effect of birth size on dysglycaemia and type 2 diabetes in old age: AGES-Reykjavik Study 
Age  2012;35(4):1401-1409.
We studied the effect of birth size on glucose and insulin metabolism among old non-diabetic individuals. We also explored the combined effect of birth size and midlife body mass index (BMI) on type 2 diabetes in old age. Our study comprised 1,682 Icelanders whose birth records included anthropometrical data. The same individuals had participated in the prospective population-based Reykjavik Study, where BMI was assessed at a mean age of 47 years, and in the AGES-Reykjavik Study during 2002 to 2006, where fasting glucose, insulin and HbA1c were measured and homeostasis model assessment for the degree of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) calculated at a mean age of 75.5 years. Type 2 diabetes was determined as having a history of diabetes, using glucose-modifying medication or fasting glucose of >7.0 mmol/l. Of the participants, 249 had prevalent type 2 diabetes in old age. Lower birth weight and body length were associated with higher fasting glucose, insulin, HOMA-IR and HbA1c among old non-diabetic individuals. Higher birth weight and ponderal index at birth decreased the risk for type 2 diabetes in old age, odds ratio (OR), 0.61 [95 % confidence interval (CI), 0.48–0.79] and 0.96 (95 % CI, 0.92–1.00), respectively. Compared with those with high birth weight and low BMI in midlife, the odds of diabetes was almost five-fold for individuals with low birth weight and high BMI (OR, 4.93; 95 % CI, 2.14–11.37). Excessive weight gain in adulthood might be particularly detrimental to the health of old individuals with low birth weight.
doi:10.1007/s11357-012-9427-5
PMCID: PMC3705119  PMID: 22588637
Aging; Birth size; Type 2 diabetes; Dysglycaemia; Birth weight; AGES-Reykjavik Study
8.  Migraine, depression, and brain volume 
Neurology  2013;80(23):2138-2144.
Objective:
To examine the joint association of migraine headache and major depressive disorder on brain volume in older persons without dementia.
Methods:
Participants (n = 4,296, 58% women) from the population-based Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility–Reykjavik Study were assessed for migraine headache in 1967–1991 (age 51 years [range 33–65]) according to modified International Classification of Headache Disorders–II criteria. In 2002–2006 (age 76 years [range 66–96]), lifetime history of major depressive disorder (depression) was diagnosed according to DSM-IV criteria, and full-brain MRI was acquired, which was computer postprocessed into total brain volume (TBV) (gray matter [GM], white matter [WM], white matter hyperintensities) and CSF volume for each study subject. We compared brain tissue volumes by headache categories with or without depression using linear regression, adjusting for intracranial volume and other factors.
Results:
Compared with the reference group (no headache, no depression) TBV and WM and GM volumes were smaller in those with both migraine and depression (TBV −19.2 mL, 95% confidence interval [CI] −35.3, −3.1, p = 0.02; WM −12.8 mL, CI −21.3, −4.3, p = 0.003; GM −13.0 mL, CI −26.0, 0.1, p = 0.05) but not for those with migraine alone (TBV 0.4 mL, WM 0.2 mL, GM 0.6 mL) or depression alone (TBV −3.9 mL, WM −0.9 mL, GM −2.9 mL).
Conclusions:
Reporting both migraine and major depressive disorder was associated with smaller brain tissue volumes than having one or neither of these conditions. Migraineurs with depression may represent a distinct clinical phenotype with different long-term sequelae. Nonetheless, the number of subjects in the current study is relatively small and these findings need to be confirmed in future studies.
doi:10.1212/WNL.0b013e318295d69e
PMCID: PMC3716352  PMID: 23700334
9.  Atrial fibrillation is associated with reduced brain volume and cognitive function independent of cerebral infarcts 
Background and Purpose
Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with cognitive decline independant of stroke, suggesting additional effects of AF on the brain. We aimed to assess the association between AF and brain function and structure in a general elderly population.
Methods
This is a cross-sectional analysis on 4251 non-demented participants (mean age 76 ± 5 years) in the population-based AGES-Reykjavik Study. Medical record data were collected on the presence, subtype and time from first diagnosis of AF; 330 participants had AF. Brain volume measurements, adjusted for intracranial volume, and presence of cerebral infarcts were determined with MRI. Memory, speed of processing and executive function composites were calculated from a cognitive test battery. In a multivariable linear regression model, adjustments were made for demographic, cardiovascular risk factors and cerebral infarcts.
Results
Participants with AF had lower total brain volume compared to those without AF (p<0.001). The association was stronger with persistent/permanent than paroxysmal AF and with increased time from the first diagnosis of the disease. Of the brain tissue volumes, AF was associated with lower volume of gray and white matter (p<0.001 and p=0.008 respectively) but not of white matter hyperintesities (p=0.49). Participants with AF scored lower on tests on memory.
Conclusions
AF is associated with smaller brain volume and the association is stronger with increasing burden of the arrhythmia. These findings suggest that AF has a cumulative negative effect on the brain independent of cerebral infarcts.
doi:10.1161/STROKEAHA.12.679381
PMCID: PMC3632359  PMID: 23444303
atrial fibrillation; brain imaging; cognition; cerebral infarct
10.  Community awareness of stroke in Accra, Ghana 
BMC Public Health  2014;14:196.
Background
Community awareness of stroke, especially the risk factors and warning signs is important in the control of the disease. In sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about community awareness of stroke though the brunt of stroke is currently borne in this region. The aim of the study was to evaluate stroke awareness in Accra (capital city of Ghana) particularly, the risk factors and warning signs.
Methods
This was a cross-sectional study involving systematic sampling of 63 households in each of the 11 sub metropolitan areas of Accra. A structured questionnaire was used to collect stroke awareness data from respondents randomly sampled in the selected households. Logistic regression analyses were done to identify predictors of the main outcome variables including recognition of stroke risk factors, stroke warning signs and the organ affected by stroke.
Results
Only 40% (n = 277) of the 693 respondents correctly identified the brain as the organ affected in stroke. Similarly, less than half of the respondents could recognize any of the established stroke risk factors as well as any of the established stroke warning signs. Over 70% (n > 485) of the respondents either believed that stroke is a preventable disease, or lifestyle alterations can be made to reduce the risk of stroke, or stroke requires emergency treatment. In multivariate analysis, predictors of stroke awareness were: age <50 years (OR = 0.56, CI = 0.35-0.92, p = 0.021), presence of a stroke risk factor (OR = 2.37, CI = 1.52-3.71, p < 0.001) and Christian Religion (OR = 14.86, CI = 1.37-161.01, p = 0.03).
Conclusion
Though stroke is perceived as a serious and preventable disease in Accra, community awareness of the risk factors and warning signs is sub-optimal. This indicates that community-based education programs to increase public awareness of stroke could contribute to decreasing the risk of stroke and to increasing the speed of hospital presentation after stroke onset.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-196
PMCID: PMC3943505  PMID: 24559414
Stroke; Risk factors; Warning signs; Brain; Accra
11.  Population Assessment of Future Trajectories in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(1):e85800.
Background
Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality rates have been decreasing in Iceland since the 1980s, largely reflecting improvements in cardiovascular risk factors. The purpose of this study was to predict future CHD mortality in Iceland based on potential risk factor trends.
Methods and findings
The previously validated IMPACT model was used to predict changes in CHD mortality between 2010 and 2040 among the projected population of Iceland aged 25–74. Calculations were based on combining: i) data on population numbers and projections (Statistics Iceland), ii) population risk factor levels and projections (Refine Reykjavik study), and iii) effectiveness of specific risk factor reductions (published meta-analyses). Projections for three contrasting scenarios were compared: 1) If the historical risk factor trends of past 30 years were to continue, the declining death rates of past decades would level off, reflecting population ageing. 2) If recent trends in risk factors (past 5 years) continue, this would result in a death rate increasing from 49 to 70 per 100,000. This would reflect a recent plateau in previously falling cholesterol levels and recent rapid increases in obesity and diabetes prevalence. 3) Assuming that in 2040 the entire population enjoys optimal risk factor levels observed in low risk cohorts, this would prevent almost all premature CHD deaths before 2040.
Conclusions
The potential increase in CHD deaths with recent trends in risk factor levels is alarming both for Iceland and probably for comparable Western populations. However, our results show considerable room for reducing CHD mortality. Achieving the best case scenario could eradicate premature CHD deaths by 2040. Public health policy interventions based on these predictions may provide a cost effective means of reducing CHD mortality in the future.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0085800
PMCID: PMC3897505  PMID: 24465713
12.  Pulmonary Function Impairment May be An Early Risk Factor for Late-Life Cognitive Impairment 
Background
Low pulmonary function (PF) is associated with poor cognitive function and dementia. There are few studies of change in PF in mid-life and late-life cognitive status.
Design and Participants
We studied this is 3,665 subjects from AGES-Reykjavik Study who had at least one measure of forced expiratory volume/ 1 sec (FEV1) and were cognitively tested on average 23 years later. A subset of 1,281 subjects had two or three measures of FEV1 acquired over a 7.8 year period. PF was estimated as FEV1/Height2. Rate of PF decline was estimated as the slope of decline over time. Cognitive status was measured with continuous scores of memory, speed of processing, and executive function, and as the dichotomous outcomes of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia.
Results
Lower PF measured in mid-life predicted lower memory, speed of processing, executive function, and higher likelihood of MCI and dementia 23 years later. Decrease of PF over a 7.8-year period in mid-life was not associated with lower cognitive function or dementia.
Conclusion
Reduced PF measured in mid-life may be an early marker of later cognitive problems. Additional studies characterizing early and late PF changes are needed.
doi:10.1111/jgs.12069
PMCID: PMC3545414  PMID: 23311554
Cognition; Dementia; Forced Expiratory Volume; Longitudinal Cohort Studies
13.  Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies 
Pennells, Lisa | Kaptoge, Stephen | White, Ian R. | Thompson, Simon G. | Wood, Angela M. | Tipping, Robert W. | Folsom, Aaron R. | Couper, David J. | Ballantyne, Christie M. | Coresh, Josef | Goya Wannamethee, S. | Morris, Richard W. | Kiechl, Stefan | Willeit, Johann | Willeit, Peter | Schett, Georg | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A. | Yarnell, John W. | Gallacher, John | Cushman, Mary | Psaty, Bruce M. | Tracy, Russ | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Price, Jackie F. | Lee, Amanda J. | McLachlan, Stela | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J. | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Wennberg, Patrik | Salomaa, Veikko | Harald, Kennet | Jousilahti, Pekka | Vartiainen, Erkki | Woodward, Mark | D'Agostino, Ralph B. | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Dekker, Jacqueline M. | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen D. A. | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T. | Meade, Tom W. | Cooper, Jackie A. | Cushman, Mary | Folsom, Aaron R. | Psaty, Bruce M. | Shea, Steven | Döring, Angela | Kuller, Lewis H. | Grandits, Greg | Gillum, Richard F. | Mussolino, Michael | Rimm, Eric B. | Hankinson, Sue E. | Manson, JoAnn E. | Pai, Jennifer K. | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A. | Shimbo, Daichi | Bakker, Stephan J. L. | Gansevoort, Ron T. | Hillege, Hans L. | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Evans, Alun | Ferrières, Jean | Sattar, Naveed | Westendorp, Rudi G. | Buckley, Brendan M. | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Wingard, Deborah L. | Bettencourt, Richele | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Kavousi, Maryam | Witteman, Jacqueline C. | Hofman, Albert | Franco, Oscar H. | Howard, Barbara V. | Zhang, Ying | Best, Lyle | Umans, Jason G. | Onat, Altan | Sundström, Johan | Michael Gaziano, J. | Stampfer, Meir | Ridker, Paul M. | Michael Gaziano, J. | Ridker, Paul M. | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Collins, Rory | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimäki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M. | Buring, Julie | Cook, Nancy | Ford, Ian | Shepherd, James | Cobbe, Stuart M. | Robertson, Michele | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S. | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Gao, Pei | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Pennells, Lisa | Thompson, Simon G. | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R. | Wood, Angela M. | Wormser, David | Danesh, John
American Journal of Epidemiology  2013;179(5):621-632.
Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.
doi:10.1093/aje/kwt298
PMCID: PMC3927974  PMID: 24366051
C index; coronary heart disease; D measure; individual participant data; inverse variance; meta-analysis; risk prediction; weighting
14.  Integration of genome-wide association studies with biological knowledge identifies six novel genes related to kidney function 
Chasman, Daniel I. | Fuchsberger, Christian | Pattaro, Cristian | Teumer, Alexander | Böger, Carsten A. | Endlich, Karlhans | Olden, Matthias | Chen, Ming-Huei | Tin, Adrienne | Taliun, Daniel | Li, Man | Gao, Xiaoyi | Gorski, Mathias | Yang, Qiong | Hundertmark, Claudia | Foster, Meredith C. | O'Seaghdha, Conall M. | Glazer, Nicole | Isaacs, Aaron | Liu, Ching-Ti | Smith, Albert V. | O'Connell, Jeffrey R. | Struchalin, Maksim | Tanaka, Toshiko | Li, Guo | Johnson, Andrew D. | Gierman, Hinco J. | Feitosa, Mary F. | Hwang, Shih-Jen | Atkinson, Elizabeth J. | Lohman, Kurt | Cornelis, Marilyn C. | Johansson, Åsa | Tönjes, Anke | Dehghan, Abbas | Lambert, Jean-Charles | Holliday, Elizabeth G. | Sorice, Rossella | Kutalik, Zoltan | Lehtimäki, Terho | Esko, Tõnu | Deshmukh, Harshal | Ulivi, Sheila | Chu, Audrey Y. | Murgia, Federico | Trompet, Stella | Imboden, Medea | Coassin, Stefan | Pistis, Giorgio | Harris, Tamara B. | Launer, Lenore J. | Aspelund, Thor | Eiriksdottir, Gudny | Mitchell, Braxton D. | Boerwinkle, Eric | Schmidt, Helena | Cavalieri, Margherita | Rao, Madhumathi | Hu, Frank | Demirkan, Ayse | Oostra, Ben A. | de Andrade, Mariza | Turner, Stephen T. | Ding, Jingzhong | Andrews, Jeanette S. | Freedman, Barry I. | Giulianini, Franco | Koenig, Wolfgang | Illig, Thomas | Meisinger, Christa | Gieger, Christian | Zgaga, Lina | Zemunik, Tatijana | Boban, Mladen | Minelli, Cosetta | Wheeler, Heather E. | Igl, Wilmar | Zaboli, Ghazal | Wild, Sarah H. | Wright, Alan F. | Campbell, Harry | Ellinghaus, David | Nöthlings, Ute | Jacobs, Gunnar | Biffar, Reiner | Ernst, Florian | Homuth, Georg | Kroemer, Heyo K. | Nauck, Matthias | Stracke, Sylvia | Völker, Uwe | Völzke, Henry | Kovacs, Peter | Stumvoll, Michael | Mägi, Reedik | Hofman, Albert | Uitterlinden, Andre G. | Rivadeneira, Fernando | Aulchenko, Yurii S. | Polasek, Ozren | Hastie, Nick | Vitart, Veronique | Helmer, Catherine | Wang, Jie Jin | Stengel, Bénédicte | Ruggiero, Daniela | Bergmann, Sven | Kähönen, Mika | Viikari, Jorma | Nikopensius, Tiit | Province, Michael | Ketkar, Shamika | Colhoun, Helen | Doney, Alex | Robino, Antonietta | Krämer, Bernhard K. | Portas, Laura | Ford, Ian | Buckley, Brendan M. | Adam, Martin | Thun, Gian-Andri | Paulweber, Bernhard | Haun, Margot | Sala, Cinzia | Mitchell, Paul | Ciullo, Marina | Kim, Stuart K. | Vollenweider, Peter | Raitakari, Olli | Metspalu, Andres | Palmer, Colin | Gasparini, Paolo | Pirastu, Mario | Jukema, J. Wouter | Probst-Hensch, Nicole M. | Kronenberg, Florian | Toniolo, Daniela | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Shuldiner, Alan R. | Coresh, Josef | Schmidt, Reinhold | Ferrucci, Luigi | Siscovick, David S. | van Duijn, Cornelia M. | Borecki, Ingrid B. | Kardia, Sharon L.R. | Liu, Yongmei | Curhan, Gary C. | Rudan, Igor | Gyllensten, Ulf | Wilson, James F. | Franke, Andre | Pramstaller, Peter P. | Rettig, Rainer | Prokopenko, Inga | Witteman, Jacqueline | Hayward, Caroline | Ridker, Paul M | Parsa, Afshin | Bochud, Murielle | Heid, Iris M. | Kao, W.H. Linda | Fox, Caroline S. | Köttgen, Anna
Human Molecular Genetics  2012;21(24):5329-5343.
In conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS), analytical approaches leveraging biological information may further understanding of the pathophysiology of clinical traits. To discover novel associations with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), a measure of kidney function, we developed a strategy for integrating prior biological knowledge into the existing GWAS data for eGFR from the CKDGen Consortium. Our strategy focuses on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) in genes that are connected by functional evidence, determined by literature mining and gene ontology (GO) hierarchies, to genes near previously validated eGFR associations. It then requires association thresholds consistent with multiple testing, and finally evaluates novel candidates by independent replication. Among the samples of European ancestry, we identified a genome-wide significant SNP in FBXL20 (P = 5.6 × 10−9) in meta-analysis of all available data, and additional SNPs at the INHBC, LRP2, PLEKHA1, SLC3A2 and SLC7A6 genes meeting multiple-testing corrected significance for replication and overall P-values of 4.5 × 10−4–2.2 × 10−7. Neither the novel PLEKHA1 nor FBXL20 associations, both further supported by association with eGFR among African Americans and with transcript abundance, would have been implicated by eGFR candidate gene approaches. LRP2, encoding the megalin receptor, was identified through connection with the previously known eGFR gene DAB2 and extends understanding of the megalin system in kidney function. These findings highlight integration of existing genome-wide association data with independent biological knowledge to uncover novel candidate eGFR associations, including candidates lacking known connections to kidney-specific pathways. The strategy may also be applicable to other clinical phenotypes, although more testing will be needed to assess its potential for discovery in general.
doi:10.1093/hmg/dds369
PMCID: PMC3607468  PMID: 22962313
15.  Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis 
Wormser, David | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Kaptoge, Stephen | Wood, Angela M | Gao, Pei | Sun, Qi | Walldius, Göran | Selmer, Randi | Verschuren, WM Monique | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Engström, Gunnar | Ridker, Paul M | Njølstad, Inger | Iso, Hiroyasu | Holme, Ingar | Giampaoli, Simona | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Gaziano, J Michael | Brunner, Eric | Kee, Frank | Tosetto, Alberto | Meisinger, Christa | Brenner, Hermann | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Whincup, Peter H | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Ian | Cremer, Peter | Hofman, Albert | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Clarke, Robert | de Boer, Ian H | Jukema, J Wouter | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Lawlor, Debbie A | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Casiglia, Edoardo | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Simons, Leon A | Nietert, Paul J | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Björkelund, Cecilia | Strandberg, Timo E | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Blazer, Dan G | Meade, Tom W | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Woodward, Mark | Nissinen, Aulikki | Kromhout, Daan | Jørgensen, Torben | Tilvis, Reijo S | Guralnik, Jack M | Rosengren, Annika | Taylor, James O | Kiechl, Stefan | Dagenais, Gilles R | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Wallace, Robert B | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Visser, Marjolein | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Kitamura, Akihiko | Sundström, Johan | Wennberg, Patrik | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Daimon, Makoto | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Cooper, Jackie A | Onat, Altan | Devereux, Richard | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Dankner, Rachel | Knuiman, Matthew W | Crespo, Carlos J | Gansevoort, Ron T | Goldbourt, Uri | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Shaw, Jonathan E | Mussolino, Michael | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Fletcher, Astrid | Kuller, Lewis H | Gillum, Richard F | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Assmann, Gerd | Wald, Nicholas | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Greenland, Philip | Trevisan, Maurizio | Ulmer, Hanno | Butterworth, Adam S | Folsom, Aaron R | Davey-Smith, George | Hu, Frank B | Danesh, John | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Charles E | Simpson, Lara M | Walldius, Göran | Jungner, Ingmar | Folsom, Aaron R | Demerath, Ellen W | Franceschini, Nora | Lutsey, Pamela L | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Pitsavos, Christos | Chrysohoou, Christina | Stefanadis, Christodoulos | Shaw, Jonathan E | Atkins, Robert | Zimmet, Paul Z | Barr, Elizabeth LM | Knuiman, Matthew W | Whincup, Peter H | Wannamethee, S Goya | Morris, Richard W | Willeit, Johann | Kiechl, Stefan | Weger, Siegfried | Oberhollenzer, Friedrich | Wald, Nicholas | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Yarnell, John WG | Casiglia, Edoardo | Tikhonoff, Valérie | Greenland, Philip | Shay, Christina M | Garside, Daniel B | Nietert, Paul J | Sutherland, Susan E | Bachman, David L | Keil, Julian E | de Boer, Ian H | Kizer, Jorge R | Psaty, Bruce M | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Jensen, Gorm B | Schnohr, Peter | Giampaoli, Simona | Palmieri, Luigi | Panico, Salvatore | Pilotto, Lorenza | Vanuzzo, Diego | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Simons, Leon A | Simons, Judith | McCallum, John | Friedlander, Yechiel | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Price, Jackie F | Lee, Amanda J | Taylor, James O | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Wallace, Robert B | Kohout, Frank J | Cornoni-Huntley, Joan C | Guralnik, Jack M | Blazer, Dan G | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Phillips, Caroline L | Guralnik, Jack M | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Rothenbacher, Dietrich | Wennberg, Patrik | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Nissinen, Aulikki | Donfrancesco, Chiara | Giampaoli, Simona | Woodward, Mark | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Vasan, Ramachandran S | Fox, Caroline S | Pencina, Michael J | Daimon, Makoto | Oizumi, Toshihide | Kayama, Takamasa | Kato, Takeo | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Møller, Lars | Jespersen, Jørgen | Dankner, Rachel | Chetrit, Angela | Lubin, Flora | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Welin, Lennart | Lappas, Georgios | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Lappas, Georgios | Bengtsson, Calle | Lissner, Lauren | Björkelund, Cecilia | Cremer, Peter | Nagel, Dorothea | Strandberg, Timo E | Salomaa, Veikko | Tilvis, Reijo S | Miettinen, Tatu A | Tilvis, Reijo S | Strandberg, Timo E | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Dekker, Jacqueline M | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Rimm, Eric B | Willett, Walter C | Iso, Hiroyasu | Kitamura, Akihiko | Yamagishi, Kazumasa | Noda, Hiroyuki | Goldbourt, Uri | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Kurl, Sudhir | Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka | Poppelaars, Jan L | Deeg, Dorly JH | Visser, Marjolein | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Hedblad, Bo | Nilsson, Peter | Engström, Gunnar | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | de Boer, Ian H | Shea, Steven J | Meisinger, Christa | Thorand, Barbara | Koenig, Wolfgang | Döring, Angela | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Fletcher, Astrid | Nitsch, Dorothea | Kuller, Lewis H | Grandits, Greg | Tverdal, Aage | Selmer, Randi | Nystad, Wenche | Mussolino, Michael | Gillum, Richard F | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Manson, JoAnn E | Rimm, Eric B | Hankinson, Susan E | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Cooper, Jackie A | Bauer, Kenneth A | Davidson, Karina W | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Shimbo, Daichi | Kitamura, Akihiko | Iso, Hiroyasu | Sato, Shinichi | Holme, Ingar | Selmer, Randi | Tverdal, Aage | Nystad, Wenche | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Miura, Katsuyuki | Sakurai, Masaru | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Jouven, Xavier | Bakker, Stephan JL | Gansevoort, Ron T | van der Harst, Pim | Hillege, Hans L | Crespo, Carlos J | Garcia-Palmieri, Mario R | Kee, Frank | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Ferrières, Jean | Schulte, Helmut | Assmann, Gerd | Jukema, J Wouter | de Craen, Anton JM | Sattar, Naveed | Stott, David J | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Després, Jean-Pierre | Dagenais, Gilles R | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Bergstrom, Jaclyn | Bettencourt, Richele R | Buisson, Catherine | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Trevisan, Maurizio | Hofman, Albert | Ikram, M Arfan | Tiemeier, Henning | Witteman, Jacqueline CM | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Tavendale, Roger | Lowe, Gordon DO | Woodward, Mark | Devereux, Richard | Yeh, Jeun-Liang | Ali, Tauqeer | Calhoun, Darren | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Davey-Smith, George | Onat, Altan | Can, Günay | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Sakurai, Masaru | Nakamura, Koshi | Morikawa, Yuko | Njølstad, Inger | Mathiesen, Ellisiv B | Løchen, Maja-Lisa | Wilsgaard, Tom | Sundström, Johan | Ingelsson, Erik | Michaëlsson, Karl | Cederholm, Tommy | Gaziano, J Michael | Buring, Julie | Ridker, Paul M | Gaziano, J Michael | Ridker, Paul M | Ulmer, Hanno | Diem, Günter | Concin, Hans | Rodeghiero, Francesco | Tosetto, Alberto | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Manson, JoAnn E | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimaki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M | Buring, Julie | Ford, Ian | Robertson, Michele | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Feskens, Edith | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Kromhout, Daan | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Franco, Oscar H | Gao, Pei | Gobin, Reeta | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Seshasai, Sreenivasa R Kondapally | Lewington, Sarah | Pennells, Lisa | Rapsomaniki, Eleni | Sarwar, Nadeem | Thompson, Alexander | Thompson, Simon G | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R | Wood, Angela M | Wormser, David | Zhao, Xiaohui | Danesh, John
Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.
Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual–participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.
Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5–1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96–0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93–0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03–1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90–0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12–1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80–0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.
Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
doi:10.1093/ije/dys086
PMCID: PMC3465767  PMID: 22825588
Height; cardiovascular disease; cancer; cause-specific mortality; epidemiological study; meta-analysis
16.  Derivation and assessment of risk prediction models using case-cohort data 
Background
Case-cohort studies are increasingly used to quantify the association of novel factors with disease risk. Conventional measures of predictive ability need modification for this design. We show how Harrell’s C-index, Royston’s D, and the category-based and continuous versions of the net reclassification index (NRI) can be adapted.
Methods
We simulated full cohort and case-cohort data, with sampling fractions ranging from 1% to 90%, using covariates from a cohort study of coronary heart disease, and two incidence rates. We then compared the accuracy and precision of the proposed risk prediction metrics.
Results
The C-index and D must be weighted in order to obtain unbiased results. The NRI does not need modification, provided that the relevant non-subcohort cases are excluded from the calculation. The empirical standard errors across simulations were consistent with analytical standard errors for the C-index and D but not for the NRI. Good relative efficiency of the prediction metrics was observed in our examples, provided the sampling fraction was above 40% for the C-index, 60% for D, or 30% for the NRI. Stata code is made available.
Conclusions
Case-cohort designs can be used to provide unbiased estimates of the C-index, D measure and NRI.
doi:10.1186/1471-2288-13-113
PMCID: PMC3848813  PMID: 24034146
Case-cohort; Risk prediction; Discrimination; Reclassification; Cardiovascular disease
17.  Genetic Associations with Valvular Calcification and Aortic Stenosis 
The New England journal of medicine  2013;368(6):503-512.
BACKGROUND
Limited information is available regarding genetic contributions to valvular calcification, which is an important precursor of clinical valve disease.
METHODS
We determined genomewide associations with the presence of aorticvalve calcification (among 6942 participants) and mitral annular calcification (among 3795 participants), as detected by computed tomographic (CT) scanning; the study population for this analysis included persons of white European ancestry from three cohorts participating in the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium (discovery population). Findings were replicated in independent cohorts of persons with either CT-detected valvular calcification or clinical aortic stenosis.
RESULTS
One SNP in the lipoprotein(a) (LPA) locus (rs10455872) reached genomewide significance for the presence of aorticvalve calcification (odds ratio per allele, 2.05; P = 9.0×10−10), a finding that was replicated in additional white European, African-American, and Hispanic-American cohorts (P<0.05 for all comparisons). Genetically determined Lp(a) levels, as predicted by LPA genotype, were also associated with aorticvalve calcification, supporting a causal role for Lp(a). In prospective analyses, LPA genotype was associated with incident aortic stenosis (hazard ratio per allele, 1.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.32 to 2.15) and aortic-valve replacement (hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.27) in a large Swedish cohort; the association with incident aortic stenosis was also replicated in an independent Danish cohort. Two SNPs (rs17659543 and rs13415097) near the proinflammatory gene IL1F9 achieved genomewide significance for mitral annular calcification (P = 1.5×10−8 and P = 1.8×10−8, respectively), but the findings were not replicated consistently.
CONCLUSIONS
Genetic variation in the LPA locus, mediated by Lp(a) levels, is associated with aorticvalve calcification across multiple ethnic groups and with incident clinical aortic stenosis. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and others.)
doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1109034
PMCID: PMC3766627  PMID: 23388002
18.  Coronary artery calcium distributions in older persons in the AGES-Reykjavik study 
European journal of epidemiology  2012;27(9):673-687.
Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) is a sign of advanced atherosclerosis and an independent risk factor for cardiac events. Here, we describe CAC-distributions in an unselected aged population and compare modelling methods to characterize CAC-distribution. CAC is difficult to model because it has a skewed and zero inflated distribution with over-dispersion. Data are from the AGES-Reykjavik sample, a large population based study [2002-2006] in Iceland of 5,764 persons aged 66-96 years.
Linear regressions using logarithmic- and Box-Cox transformations on CAC+1, quantile regression and a Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial model (ZINB) were applied. Methods were compared visually and with the PRESS-statistic, R2 and number of detected associations with concurrently measured variables.
There were pronounced differences in CAC according to sex, age, history of coronary events and presence of plaque in the carotid artery. Associations with conventional coronary artery disease (CAD) risk factors varied between the sexes.
The ZINB model provided the best results with respect to the PRESS-statistic, R2, and predicted proportion of zero scores. The ZINB model detected similar numbers of associations as the linear regression on ln(CAC+1) and usually with the same risk factors.
doi:10.1007/s10654-012-9730-6
PMCID: PMC3746182  PMID: 22990371
Coronary artery calcium; epidemiology; older persons; skewed distribution; ZINB; statistical modelling
19.  Genetic Loci for Retinal Arteriolar Microcirculation 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(6):e65804.
Narrow arterioles in the retina have been shown to predict hypertension as well as other vascular diseases, likely through an increase in the peripheral resistance of the microcirculatory flow. In this study, we performed a genome-wide association study in 18,722 unrelated individuals of European ancestry from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium and the Blue Mountain Eye Study, to identify genetic determinants associated with variations in retinal arteriolar caliber. Retinal vascular calibers were measured on digitized retinal photographs using a standardized protocol. One variant (rs2194025 on chromosome 5q14 near the myocyte enhancer factor 2C MEF2C gene) was associated with retinal arteriolar caliber in the meta-analysis of the discovery cohorts at genome-wide significance of P-value <5×10−8. This variant was replicated in an additional 3,939 individuals of European ancestry from the Australian Twins Study and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (rs2194025, P-value = 2.11×10−12 in combined meta-analysis of discovery and replication cohorts). In independent studies of modest sample sizes, no significant association was found between this variant and clinical outcomes including coronary artery disease, stroke, myocardial infarction or hypertension. In conclusion, we found one novel loci which underlie genetic variation in microvasculature which may be relevant to vascular disease. The relevance of these findings to clinical outcomes remains to be determined.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0065804
PMCID: PMC3680438  PMID: 23776548
20.  Effect of rheumatoid factor on mortality and coronary heart disease 
Annals of the rheumatic diseases  2009;69(9):1649-1654.
Objective
An association between rheumatoid factor (RF) and increased mortality has been described in individuals with rheumatoid arthritis. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of RF on mortality and coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population.
Methods
Subjects were participants in a population-based study focused on cardiovascular disease who attended for a study visit during the years 1974–84. RF was measured and information obtained on cardiovascular risk factors, joint symptoms and erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR). The subjects were followed with respect to mortality and incident CHD through 2005. Adjusted comparison of overall survival and CHD event-free survival in RF-positive versus RF-negative subjects was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression models.
Results
Of 11 872 subjects, 140 had positive RF. At baseline RF was associated with diabetes mellitus and smoking and inversely associated with serum cholesterol. RF-positive subjects had increased all-cause mortality (HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.80) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.14) after adjusting for age and sex. Further adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and ESR only modestly attenuated this effect. An increase in CHD among the RF-positive subjects did not reach statistical significance (HR 1.32, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.81, adjusted for age and sex). Subjects with RF but without joint symptoms also had increased overall mortality and cardiovascular mortality (HR for overall mortality 1.33, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.74, after adjustment).
Conclusion
In a general population cohort, RF was associated with increased all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, even in subjects without joint symptoms.
doi:10.1136/ard.2009.110536
PMCID: PMC3653630  PMID: 19628821
21.  Effect of vertebral fractures on function, quality of life and hospitalisation the AGES-Reykjavik study 
Age and Ageing  2012;41(3):351-357.
Background: understanding the determinants of health burden after a fracture in ageing populations is important.
Objective: assess the effect of clinical vertebral and other osteoporotic fractures on function and the subsequent risk of hospitalisation.
Design: individuals from the prospective population-based cohort study Age, Gene/Environment Susceptibility (AGES)-Reykjavik study were examined between 2002 and 2006 and followed up for 5.4 years.
Subjects: a total of 5,764 individuals, 57.7% women, born 1907–35, mean age 77.
Method: four groups with a verified fracture status were used; vertebral fractures, other osteoporotic fractures excluding vertebral, non-osteoporotic fractures and not-fractured were compared and analysed for the effect on mobility, strength, QoL, ADL, co-morbidity and hospitalisation.
Results: worst performance on functional tests was in the vertebral fracture group for women (P < 0.0001) and the other osteoporotic fractures group for men (P < 0.05). Both vertebral and other osteoporotic fractures, showed an increased risk of hospitalisation, HR = 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3–1.7) and 1.2 (95% CI: 1.1–1.2) respectively (P < 0.0001). Individuals with vertebral fractures had 50% (P < 0.0001) longer hospitalisation than not-fractured and 33% (P < 0.002) longer than the other osteoporotic fractures group.
Conclusion: individuals with a history of clinical vertebral fracture seem to carry the greatest health burden compared with other fracture groups, emphasising the attention which should be given to those individuals.
doi:10.1093/ageing/afs003
PMCID: PMC3335370  PMID: 22367357
vertebral fracture; health burden; osteoporotic fracture; strength; ADL; quality of life; mobility; elderly
22.  Consumption of Fish Products across the Lifespan and Prostate Cancer Risk 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(4):e59799.
Objective
To examine whether fish and fish oil consumption across the lifespan is associated with a lower risk of prostate cancer.
Design
The study was nested among 2268 men aged 67–96 years in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort study. In 2002 to 2006, dietary habits were assessed, for early life, midlife and later life using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Participants were followed for prostate cancer diagnosis and mortality through 2009 via linkage to nationwide cancer- and mortality registers. Adjusting for potential confounders, we used regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for prostate cancer according to fish and fish oil consumption.
Results
Among the 2268 men, we ascertained 214 prevalent and 133 incident prostate cancer cases, of which 63 had advanced disease. High fish consumption in early- and midlife was not associated with overall or advanced prostate cancer. High intake of salted or smoked fish was associated with a 2-fold increased risk of advanced prostate cancer both in early life (95% CI: 1.08, 3.62) and in later life (95% CI: 1.04, 5.00). Men consuming fish oil in later life had a lower risk of advanced prostate cancer [HR (95%CI): 0.43 (0.19, 0.95)], no association was found for early life or midlife consumption.
Conclusions
Salted or smoked fish may increase risk of advanced prostate cancer, whereas fish oil consumption may be protective against progression of prostate cancer in elderly men. In a setting with very high fish consumption, no association was found between overall fish consumption in early or midlife and prostate cancer risk.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0059799
PMCID: PMC3629172  PMID: 23613715
23.  A genome-wide approach accounting for body mass index identifies genetic variants influencing fasting glycemic traits and insulin resistance 
Manning, Alisa K. | Hivert, Marie-France | Scott, Robert A. | Grimsby, Jonna L. | Bouatia-Naji, Nabila | Chen, Han | Rybin, Denis | Liu, Ching-Ti | Bielak, Lawrence F. | Prokopenko, Inga | Amin, Najaf | Barnes, Daniel | Cadby, Gemma | Hottenga, Jouke-Jan | Ingelsson, Erik | Jackson, Anne U. | Johnson, Toby | Kanoni, Stavroula | Ladenvall, Claes | Lagou, Vasiliki | Lahti, Jari | Lecoeur, Cecile | Liu, Yongmei | Martinez-Larrad, Maria Teresa | Montasser, May E. | Navarro, Pau | Perry, John R. B. | Rasmussen-Torvik, Laura J. | Salo, Perttu | Sattar, Naveed | Shungin, Dmitry | Strawbridge, Rona J. | Tanaka, Toshiko | van Duijn, Cornelia M. | An, Ping | de Andrade, Mariza | Andrews, Jeanette S. | Aspelund, Thor | Atalay, Mustafa | Aulchenko, Yurii | Balkau, Beverley | Bandinelli, Stefania | Beckmann, Jacques S. | Beilby, John P. | Bellis, Claire | Bergman, Richard N. | Blangero, John | Boban, Mladen | Boehnke, Michael | Boerwinkle, Eric | Bonnycastle, Lori L. | Boomsma, Dorret I. | Borecki, Ingrid B. | Böttcher, Yvonne | Bouchard, Claude | Brunner, Eric | Budimir, Danijela | Campbell, Harry | Carlson, Olga | Chines, Peter S. | Clarke, Robert | Collins, Francis S. | Corbatón-Anchuelo, Arturo | Couper, David | de Faire, Ulf | Dedoussis, George V | Deloukas, Panos | Dimitriou, Maria | Egan, Josephine M | Eiriksdottir, Gudny | Erdos, Michael R. | Eriksson, Johan G. | Eury, Elodie | Ferrucci, Luigi | Ford, Ian | Forouhi, Nita G. | Fox, Caroline S | Franzosi, Maria Grazia | Franks, Paul W | Frayling, Timothy M | Froguel, Philippe | Galan, Pilar | de Geus, Eco | Gigante, Bruna | Glazer, Nicole L. | Goel, Anuj | Groop, Leif | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Hallmans, Göran | Hamsten, Anders | Hansson, Ola | Harris, Tamara B. | Hayward, Caroline | Heath, Simon | Hercberg, Serge | Hicks, Andrew A. | Hingorani, Aroon | Hofman, Albert | Hui, Jennie | Hung, Joseph | Jarvelin, Marjo Riitta | Jhun, Min A. | Johnson, Paul C.D. | Jukema, J Wouter | Jula, Antti | Kao, W.H. | Kaprio, Jaakko | Kardia, Sharon L. R. | Keinanen-Kiukaanniemi, Sirkka | Kivimaki, Mika | Kolcic, Ivana | Kovacs, Peter | Kumari, Meena | Kuusisto, Johanna | Kyvik, Kirsten Ohm | Laakso, Markku | Lakka, Timo | Lannfelt, Lars | Lathrop, G Mark | Launer, Lenore J. | Leander, Karin | Li, Guo | Lind, Lars | Lindstrom, Jaana | Lobbens, Stéphane | Loos, Ruth J. F. | Luan, Jian’an | Lyssenko, Valeriya | Mägi, Reedik | Magnusson, Patrik K. E. | Marmot, Michael | Meneton, Pierre | Mohlke, Karen L. | Mooser, Vincent | Morken, Mario A. | Miljkovic, Iva | Narisu, Narisu | O’Connell, Jeff | Ong, Ken K. | Oostra, Ben A. | Palmer, Lyle J. | Palotie, Aarno | Pankow, James S. | Peden, John F. | Pedersen, Nancy L. | Pehlic, Marina | Peltonen, Leena | Penninx, Brenda | Pericic, Marijana | Perola, Markus | Perusse, Louis | Peyser, Patricia A | Polasek, Ozren | Pramstaller, Peter P. | Province, Michael A. | Räikkönen, Katri | Rauramaa, Rainer | Rehnberg, Emil | Rice, Ken | Rotter, Jerome I. | Rudan, Igor | Ruokonen, Aimo | Saaristo, Timo | Sabater-Lleal, Maria | Salomaa, Veikko | Savage, David B. | Saxena, Richa | Schwarz, Peter | Seedorf, Udo | Sennblad, Bengt | Serrano-Rios, Manuel | Shuldiner, Alan R. | Sijbrands, Eric J.G. | Siscovick, David S. | Smit, Johannes H. | Small, Kerrin S. | Smith, Nicholas L. | Smith, Albert Vernon | Stančáková, Alena | Stirrups, Kathleen | Stumvoll, Michael | Sun, Yan V. | Swift, Amy J. | Tönjes, Anke | Tuomilehto, Jaakko | Trompet, Stella | Uitterlinden, Andre G. | Uusitupa, Matti | Vikström, Max | Vitart, Veronique | Vohl, Marie-Claude | Voight, Benjamin F. | Vollenweider, Peter | Waeber, Gerard | Waterworth, Dawn M | Watkins, Hugh | Wheeler, Eleanor | Widen, Elisabeth | Wild, Sarah H. | Willems, Sara M. | Willemsen, Gonneke | Wilson, James F. | Witteman, Jacqueline C.M. | Wright, Alan F. | Yaghootkar, Hanieh | Zelenika, Diana | Zemunik, Tatijana | Zgaga, Lina | Wareham, Nicholas J. | McCarthy, Mark I. | Barroso, Ines | Watanabe, Richard M. | Florez, Jose C. | Dupuis, Josée | Meigs, James B. | Langenberg, Claudia
Nature genetics  2012;44(6):659-669.
Recent genome-wide association studies have described many loci implicated in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathophysiology and beta-cell dysfunction, but contributed little to our understanding of the genetic basis of insulin resistance. We hypothesized that genes implicated in insulin resistance pathways may be uncovered by accounting for differences in body mass index (BMI) and potential interaction between BMI and genetic variants. We applied a novel joint meta-analytical approach to test associations with fasting insulin (FI) and glucose (FG) on a genome-wide scale. We present six previously unknown FI loci at P<5×10−8 in combined discovery and follow-up analyses of 52 studies comprising up to 96,496non-diabetic individuals. Risk variants were associated with higher triglyceride and lower HDL cholesterol levels, suggestive of a role for these FI loci in insulin resistance pathways. The localization of these additional loci will aid further characterization of the role of insulin resistance in T2D pathophysiology.
doi:10.1038/ng.2274
PMCID: PMC3613127  PMID: 22581228
24.  Type 3 finger length pattern is associated with total knee replacements due to osteoarthritis but not with hip replacements or hand osteoarthritis in the elderly: The AGES-Reykjavik study 
Background
Recent case–control studies have shown an association between type 3 finger length pattern (longer ring finger than index finger) and knee osteoarthritis. This large cross-sectional study tests the hypothesis that the type 3 pattern is associated with total joint replacements due to osteoarthritis in a large population based study.
Methods
Finger length ratios were assessed visually on 5170 hand photographs (2975 females, 2195 males, mean age 76). In this population-based multidisciplinary study of aging in Reykjavik, Iceland, the prevalence of osteoarthritis associated total knee replacements was 223(4.3%) and total hip replacements 316(6.1%). We then performed a binary logistic regression analysis for total knee replacements and total hip replacements, including finger length patterns, osteoarthritis at other sites and other variables with possible association to osteoarthritis such as age, BMI and bone mineral density of the spine.
Results
The prevalence of the type 3 pattern was 50% (43% in females, 58% in males). The regression analysis revealed an odds ratio for total knee replacements of 1.65 (1.24-2.2) p = 0.0007, in the type 3 finger pattern group, similar in both genders. This association was independent of the associations we have previously reported between total knee replacements and BMI and the presence of hand osteoarthritis. No association was seen between finger length patterns and total hip replacements.
Conclusion
Finger length patterns read from digital photographs in this large study confirm previous radiographic observations with significant associations between the type 3 pattern and total knee replacements but not total hip replacements in both genders in this elderly group.
doi:10.1186/1471-2474-14-112
PMCID: PMC3626925  PMID: 23530906
Osteoarthritis; Finger length ratio; Epidemiology
25.  Rye Bread Consumption in Early Life and Reduced Risk of Advanced Prostate Cancer 
Cancer causes & control : CCC  2012;23(6):941-950.
Objective
To determine whether consumption of whole-grain; rye bread, oatmeal, and whole-wheat bread, during different periods of life, is associated with risk of prostate cancer (PCa).
Methods
In 2002 to 2006, 2,268 men, aged 67-96 years, reported their dietary habits in the AGES-Reykjavik cohort study. Dietary habits were assessed for early-, mid- , and current life using a validated food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Through linkage to cancer- and mortality registers, we retrieved information on PCa diagnosis and mortality through 2009. We used regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for PCa according to whole grain consumption, adjusted for possible confounding factors including fish-, fish liver oil-, meat-, and milk intake.
Results
Of the 2,268 men, 347 had or were diagnosed with PCa during follow-up, 63 with advanced disease (stage 3+ or died of PCa). Daily rye bread consumption in adolescence (vs. less than daily) was associated with a decreased risk of PCa diagnosis (OR = 0.76, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.59-0.98), and of advanced PCa (OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.27-0.84). High intake of oatmeal in adolescence (≥5 vs. ≤4 times/ week) was not significantly associated with risk of PCa diagnosis (OR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.77-1.27) nor advanced PCa (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 0.37-1.20). Mid-, and late life consumption of rye bread, oatmeal, or whole-wheat bread was not associated with PCa risk.
Conclusion
Our results suggest that rye bread consumption in adolescence may be associated with reduced risk of PCa, particularly advanced disease.
doi:10.1007/s10552-012-9965-2
PMCID: PMC3568695  PMID: 22527172
adolescent; diet; epidemiology; rye bread; prostatic neoplasms; whole-grain; AGES Reykjavik study

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