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1.  MultiComponent Exercise and theRApeutic lifeStyle (CERgAS) intervention to improve physical performance and maintain independent living among urban poor older people - a cluster randomised controlled trial 
BMC Geriatrics  2015;15:8.
Background
The ability of older people to function independently is crucial as physical disability and functional limitation have profound impacts on health. Interventions that either delay the onset of frailty or attenuate its severity potentially have cascading benefits for older people, their families and society. This study aims to develop and evaluate the effectiveness of a multiComponent Exercise and theRApeutic lifeStyle (CERgAS) intervention program targeted at improving physical performance and maintaining independent living as compared to general health education among older people in an urban poor setting in Malaysia.
Methods
This cluster randomised controlled trial will be a 6-week community-based intervention programme for older people aged 60 years and above from urban poor settings. A minimum of 164 eligible participants will be recruited from 8 clusters (low-cost public subsidised flats) and randomised to the intervention and control arm. This study will be underpinned by the Health Belief Model with an emphasis towards self-efficacy. The intervention will comprise multicomponent group exercise sessions, nutrition education, oral care education and on-going support and counselling. These will be complemented with a kit containing practical tips on exercise, nutrition and oral care after each session. Data will be collected over four time points; at baseline, immediately post-intervention, 3-months and 6-months follow-up.
Discussion
Findings from this trial will potentially provide valuable evidence to improve physical function and maintain independence among older people from low-resource settings. This will inform health policies and identify locally acceptable strategies to promote healthy aging, prevent and delay functional decline among older Malaysian adults.
Trial registration
ISRCTN22749696.
doi:10.1186/s12877-015-0002-7
PMCID: PMC4334409
Elderly; Exercise; Physical function; Frailty; Randomised controlled trial; Lifestyle
2.  Total hospital stay for hip fracture: measuring the variations due to pre-fracture residence, rehabilitation, complications and comorbidities 
Background
Hospital treatment for hip fracture is complex, often involving sequential episodes for acute orthopaedics, rehabilitation and care of contingent conditions. Most reports of hospital length of stay (LOS) address only the acute phase of care. This study identifies the frequency and mean duration of the component episodes within total hospital stay, and measures the impacts of patient-level and clinical service variables upon both acute phase and total LOS.
Methods
Administrative datasets for 2552 subjects hospitalised between 1 July 2008 and 30 June 2009 were linked. Associations between LOS, pre-fracture accommodation status, age, sex, fracture type, hospital separation codes, selected comorbidities and complications were examined in regression models for acute phase and total LOS for patients from residential aged care (RAC) and from the community.
Results
Mean total LOS was 30.8 days, with 43 per cent attributable to acute fracture management, 37 per cent to rehabilitation and 20 per cent to management of contingent conditions. Community patients had unadjusted total LOS of 35.4 days compared with 18.8 days for RAC patients (p <0.001). The proportion of transfers into rehabilitation (57 per cent vs 17 per cent, p <0.001) was the major determinant for this difference. In multivariate analyses, new RAC placement, discharge to other facilities, and complications of pressure ulcer, urinary or surgical site infections increased LOS by at least four days in one or more phases of hospital stay.
Conclusion
Pre-fracture residence, selection for rehabilitation, discharge destination and specific complications are key determinants for acute phase and total LOS. Calculating the dimensions of specific determinants for LOS may identify potential efficiencies from targeted interventions such as orthogeriatric care models.
doi:10.1186/s12913-015-0697-3
PMCID: PMC4308914  PMID: 25609030
Hip fracture; Length of stay; Complications; Residential aged care; Rehabilitation
3.  A Post-Hospital Home Exercise Program Improved Mobility but Increased Falls in Older People: A Randomised Controlled Trial 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(9):e104412.
Background
Home exercise can prevent falls in the general older community but its impact in people recently discharged from hospital is not known. The study aimed to investigate the effects of a home-based exercise program on falls and mobility among people recently discharged from hospital.
Methods and Findings
This randomised controlled trial (ACTRN12607000563460) was conducted among 340 older people. Intervention group participants (n = 171) were asked to exercise at home for 15–20 minutes up to 6 times weekly for 12 months. The control group (n = 169) received usual care. Primary outcomes were rate of falls (assessed over 12 months using monthly calendars), performance-based mobility (Lower Extremity Summary Performance Score, range 0–3, at baseline and 12 months, assessor unaware of group allocation) and self-reported ease of mobility task performance (range 0–40, assessed with 12 monthly questionaries). Participants had an average age of 81.2 years (SD 8.0) and 70% had fallen in the past year. Complete primary outcome data were obtained for at least 92% of randomised participants. Participants in the intervention group reported more falls than the control group (177 falls versus 123 falls) during the 12-month study period and this difference was statistically significant (incidence rate ratio 1.43, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.93, p = 0.017). At 12-months, performance-based mobility had improved significantly more in the intervention group than in the control group (between-group difference adjusted for baseline performance 0.13, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.21, p = 0.004). Self-reported ease in undertaking mobility tasks over the 12-month period was not significantly different between the groups (0.49, 95% CI −0.91 to 1.90, p = 0.488).
Conclusions
An individualised home exercise prescription significantly improved performance-based mobility but significantly increased the rate of falls in older people recently discharged from hospital.
Trial Registration
Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000563460
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0104412
PMCID: PMC4152130  PMID: 25180702
4.  Statin use and clinical outcomes in older men: a prospective population-based study 
BMJ Open  2013;3(3):e002333.
Objective
The aim of this analysis was to investigate the relationship of statins with institutionalisation and death in older men living in the community, accounting for frailty.
Design
Prospective cohort study.
Setting
Community-dwelling men participating in the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, Sydney, Australia.
Participants
Men aged ≥70 years (n=1665).
Measurements
Data collected during baseline assessments and follow-up (maximum of 6.79 years) were obtained. Information regarding statin use was captured at baseline, between 2005 and 2007. Proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to estimate the risk of institutionalisation and death according to statin use (exposure, duration and dose) and frailty status, with adjustment for sociodemographics, medical diagnosis and other clinically relevant factors. A secondary analysis used propensity score matching to replicate covariate adjustment in regression models.
Results
At baseline, 43% of participants reported taking statins. Over 6.79 years of follow-up, 132 (7.9%) participants were institutionalised and 358 (21.5%) participants had died. In the adjusted models, baseline statin use was not statistically associated with increased risk of institutionalisation (HR=1.60; 95% CI 0.98 to 2.63) or death (HR=0.88; 95% CI 0.66 to 1.18). There was no significant association between duration and dose of statins used with either outcome. Propensity scoring yielded similar findings. Compared with non-frail participants not prescribed statins, the adjusted HR for institutionalisation for non-frail participants prescribed statins was 1.43 (95% CI 0.81 to 2.51); for frail participants not prescribed statins, it was 2.07 (95% CI 1.11 to 3.86) and for frail participants prescribed statins, it was 4.34 (95% CI 2.02 to 9.33).
Conclusions
These data suggest a lack of significant association between statin use and institutionalisation or death in older men. These findings call for real-world trials specifically designed for frail older people to examine the impact of statins on clinical outcomes.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002333
PMCID: PMC3612783  PMID: 23474793
Clinical Pharmacology; Geriatric Medicine
5.  The study design and methodology for the ARCHER study - adolescent rural cohort study of hormones, health, education, environments and relationships 
BMC Pediatrics  2012;12:143.
Background
Adolescence is characterized by marked psychosocial, behavioural and biological changes and represents a critical life transition through which adult health and well-being are established. Substantial research confirms the role of psycho-social and environmental influences on this transition, but objective research examining the role of puberty hormones, testosterone in males and oestradiol in females (as biomarkers of puberty) on adolescent events is lacking. Neither has the tempo of puberty, the time from onset to completion of puberty within an individual been studied, nor the interaction between age of onset and tempo. This study has been designed to provide evidence on the relationship between reproductive hormones and the tempo of their rise to adult levels, and adolescent behaviour, health and wellbeing.
Methods/Design
The ARCHER study is a multidisciplinary, prospective, longitudinal cohort study in 400 adolescents to be conducted in two centres in regional Australia in the State of New South Wales. The overall aim is to determine how changes over time in puberty hormones independently affect the study endpoints which describe universal and risk behaviours, mental health and physical status in adolescents. Recruitment will commence in school grades 5, 6 and 7 (10–12 years of age). Data collection includes participant and parent questionnaires, anthropometry, blood and urine collection and geocoding. Data analysis will include testing the reliability and validity of the chosen measures of puberty for subsequent statistical modeling to assess the impact over time of tempo and onset of puberty (and their interaction) and mean-level repeated measures analyses to explore for significant upward and downward shifts on target outcomes as a function of main effects.
Discussion
The strengths of this study include enrollment starting in the earliest stages of puberty, the use of frequent urine samples in addition to annual blood samples to measure puberty hormones, and the simultaneous use of parental questionnaires.
doi:10.1186/1471-2431-12-143
PMCID: PMC3496596  PMID: 22950846
Puberty; Hormones; Adolescent; Cohort studies; Rural health; Behaviour; Wellbeing; Public health; Protocol; Paediatrics
6.  Determinants of Serum-Induced SIRT1 Expression in Older Men: The CHAMP Study 
Circulating factors that have an effect on SIRT1 expression are influenced by caloric restriction. To determine the association between frailty and such circulating factors, we measured serum-induced SIRT1 expression from a nested cohort of frail (n = 77) and robust (n = 82) participants from Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project, a population-based study of community-dwelling men older than 70 years. Serum-induced SIRT1 expression was not different between frail and robust men (103.1 ± 17.0 versus 100.4 ± 19.3 μg/L). However, subsequent analyses showed that men with the lowest values (first quartile) were less likely to be frail (odds ratio = 0.5, 95% confidence interval = 0.2–1.0, p = .04) and had higher total body lean mass (p = .001) than the other participants. Serum-induced SIRT1 expression did not correlate with age, diseases, medications, albumin, fasting glucose, or lipids. Overall, there was no association between frailty and serum-induced SIRT1 expression; however, post hoc analysis suggested that there might be a paradoxical association between low serum-induced SIRT1 expression and robustness.
doi:10.1093/gerona/glq158
PMCID: PMC4007825  PMID: 20819794
SIRT1 expression; Frailty
7.  Anti-Retroviral Treatment Outcomes among Older Adults in Zomba District, Malawi 
PLoS ONE  2011;6(10):e26546.
Background
There are approximately 3 million people aged 50 and older in sub-Saharan Africa who are HIV-positive. Despite this, little is known about the characteristics of older adults who are on treatment and their treatment outcomes.
Methods
A retrospective cohort analysis was performed using routinely collected data with Malawi Ministry of Health monitoring tools from facilities providing antiretroviral therapy services in Zomba district. Patients aged 25 years and older initiated on treatment from July 2005 to June 2010 were included. Differences in survival, by age group, were determined using Kaplan–Meier survival plots and Cox proportional hazards regression models.
Results
There were 10,888 patients aged 25 and older. Patients aged 50 and older (N = 1419) were more likely to be male (P<0.0001) and located in rural areas (P = 0.003) than those aged 25–49. Crude survival estimates among those aged 50–59 were not statistically different from those aged 25–49 (P = 0.925). However, survival among those aged 60 and older (N = 345) was worse (P = 0.019) than among those 25–59. In the proportional hazards model, after controlling for sex and stage at initiation, survival in those aged 50–59 did not differ significantly from those aged 25–49 (hazard ratio 1.00 (95% CI: 0.79 to 1.27; P = 0.998) but the hazard ratio was 1.46 (95% CI: 1.03 to 2.06; P = 0.032) for those aged 60 and older compared to those aged 25–49.
Conclusions
Treatment outcomes of those aged 50–59 are similar to those aged 25–49. A better understanding of how older adults present for and respond to treatment is critical to improving HIV services.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0026546
PMCID: PMC3198738  PMID: 22031839
8.  The Association of Alanine Transaminase With Aging, Frailty, and Mortality 
The relationships between blood tests of liver function and injury (alanine transaminase [ALT], gamma-glutamyl transferase, bilirubin, and albumin) with age, frailty, and survival were investigated in 1,673 community-dwelling men aged 70 years or older. ALT was lower in older participants. Those participants with ALT below the median at baseline had reduced survival (hazard ratio 2.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53–2.87) up to 4.9 years. Older age, frailty, low albumin, low body mass index, and alcohol abstinence also were associated with reduced survival, with age and frailty being the most powerful predictors. Low ALT was associated with frailty (odds ratio 3.54, 95% CI 2.45–5.11), and the relationship between ALT and survival disappeared once frailty and age were included in the survival analysis. Low ALT activity is a predictor of reduced survival; however, this seems to be mediated by its association with frailty and increasing age. ALT has potential value as a novel biomarker of aging.
doi:10.1093/gerona/glq082
PMCID: PMC4085878  PMID: 20498223
Alanine transaminase; Aging; Biomarker of aging; Frailty; Liver; Mortality
11.  Prevalence and correlates of physical disability and functional limitation among community dwelling older people in rural Malaysia, a middle income country 
BMC Public Health  2010;10:492.
Background
The prevalence and correlates of physical disability and functional limitation among older people have been studied in many developed countries but not in a middle income country such as Malaysia. The present study investigated the epidemiology of physical disability and functional limitation among older people in Malaysia and compares findings to other countries.
Methods
A population-based cross sectional study was conducted in Alor Gajah, Malacca. Seven hundred and sixty five older people aged 60 years and above underwent tests of functional limitation (Tinetti Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment Tool). Data were also collected for self reported activities of daily living (ADL) using the Barthel Index (ten items). To compare prevalence with other studies, ADL disability was also defined using six basic ADL's (eating, bathing, dressing, transferring, toileting and walking) and five basic ADL's (eating, bathing, dressing, transferring and toileting).
Results
Ten, six and five basic ADL disability was reported by 24.7% (95% CI 21.6-27.9), 14.4% (95% CI 11.9-17.2) and 10.6% (95% CI 8.5-13.1), respectively. Functional limitation was found in 19.5% (95% CI 16.8-22.5) of participants. Variables independently associated with 10 item ADL disability physical disability, were advanced age (≥ 75 years: prevalence ratio (PR) 7.9; 95% CI 4.8-12.9), presence of diabetes (PR 1.8; 95% CI 1.4-2.3), stroke (PR 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.2), depressive symptomology (PR 1.3; 95% CI 1.1-1.8) and visual impairment (blind: PR 2.0; 95% CI 1.1-3.6). Advancing age (≥ 75 years: PR 3.0; 95% CI 1.7-5.2) being female (PR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2-6.1), presence of arthritis (PR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.1) and depressive symptomology (PR 2.0; 95% CI 1.5-2.7) were significantly associated with functional limitation.
Conclusions
The prevalence of physical disability and functional limitation among older Malaysians appears to be much higher than in developed countries but is comparable to developing countries. Associations with socio-demographic and other health related variables were consistent with other studies.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-10-492
PMCID: PMC2933720  PMID: 20716377
12.  Exercise intervention to prevent falls and enhance mobility in community dwellers after stroke: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial 
BMC Neurology  2009;9:38.
Background
Stroke is the most common disabling neurological condition in adults. Falls and poor mobility are major contributors to stroke-related disability. Falls are more frequent and more likely to result in injury among stroke survivors than among the general older population. Currently there is good evidence that exercise can enhance mobility after stroke, yet ongoing exercise programs for general community-based stroke survivors are not routinely available. This randomised controlled trial will investigate whether exercise can reduce fall rates and increase mobility and physical activity levels in stroke survivors.
Methods and design
Three hundred and fifty community dwelling stroke survivors will be recruited. Participants will have no medical contradictions to exercise and be cognitively and physically able to complete the assessments and exercise program. After the completion of the pre-test assessment, participants will be randomly allocated to one of two intervention groups. Both intervention groups will participate in weekly group-based exercises and a home program for twelve months. In the lower limb intervention group, individualised programs of weight-bearing balance and strengthening exercises will be prescribed. The upper limb/cognition group will receive exercises aimed at management and improvement of function of the affected upper limb and cognition carried out in the seated position. The primary outcome measures will be falls (measured with 12 month calendars) and mobility. Secondary outcome measures will be risk of falling, physical activity levels, community participation, quality of life, health service utilisation, upper limb function and cognition.
Discussion
This study aims to establish and evaluate community-based sustainable exercise programs for stroke survivors. We will determine the effects of the exercise programs in preventing falls and enhancing mobility among people following stroke. This program, if found to be effective, has the potential to be implemented within existing community services.
Trial registration
The protocol for this study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12606000479505).
doi:10.1186/1471-2377-9-38
PMCID: PMC2719587  PMID: 19624858
13.  Minimising disability and falls in older people through a post-hospital exercise program: a protocol for a randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation 
BMC Geriatrics  2009;9:8.
Background
Disability and falls are particularly common among older people who have recently been hospitalised. There is evidence that disability severity and fall rates can be reduced by well-designed exercise interventions. However, the potential for exercise to have these benefits in older people who have spent time in hospital has not been established.
This randomised controlled trial will investigate the effects of a home-based exercise program on disability and falls among people who have had recent hospital stays. The cost-effectiveness of the exercise program from the health and community service provider's perspective will be established. In addition, predictors for adherence with the exercise program will be determined.
Methods and design
Three hundred and fifty older people who have recently had hospital stays will participate in the study. Participants will have no medical contraindications to exercise and will be cognitively and physically able to complete the assessments and exercise program.
The primary outcome measures will be mobility-related disability (measured with 12 monthly questionnaires and the Short Physical Performance Battery) and falls (measured with 12 monthly calendars). Secondary measures will be tests of risk of falling, additional measures of mobility, strength and flexibility, quality of life, fall-related self efficacy, health-system and community-service contact, assistance from others, difficulty with daily tasks, physical activity levels and adverse events.
After discharge from hospital and completion of all hospital-related treatments, participants will be randomly allocated to an intervention group or usual-care control group. For the intervention group, an individualised home exercise program will be established and progressed during ten home visits from a physiotherapist. Participants will be asked to exercise at home up to 6 times per week for the 12-month study period.
Discussion
The study will determine the impact of this exercise intervention on mobility-related disability and falls in older people who have been in hospital as well as cost-effectiveness and predictors of adherence to the program. Thus, the results will have direct implications for the design and implementation of interventions for this high-risk group of older people.
Trial Registration
The protocol for this study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12607000563460.
doi:10.1186/1471-2318-9-8
PMCID: PMC2660334  PMID: 19245697
14.  Prognosis in patients with recent onset low back pain in Australian primary care: inception cohort study 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  2008;337(7662):154-157.
Objective To estimate the one year prognosis and identify prognostic factors in cases of recent onset low back pain managed in primary care.
Design Cohort study with one year follow-up.
Setting Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia.
Participants An inception cohort of 973 consecutive primary care patients (mean age 43.3, 54.8% men) with non-specific low back pain of less than two weeks’ duration recruited from the clinics of 170 general practitioners, physiotherapists, and chiropractors.
Main outcome measures Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and were contacted six weeks, three months, and 12 months after the initial consultation. Recovery was assessed in terms of return to work, return to function, and resolution of pain. The association between potential prognostic factors and time to recovery was modelled with Cox regression.
Results The follow-up rate over the 12 months was more than 97%. Half of those who reduced their work status at baseline had returned to previous work status within 14 days (95% confidence interval 11 to 17 days) and 83% had returned to previous work status by three months. Disability (median recovery time 31 days, 25 to 37 days) and pain (median 58 days, 52 to 63 days) took much longer to resolve. Only 72% of participants had completely recovered 12 months after the baseline consultation. Older age, compensation cases, higher pain intensity, longer duration of low back pain before consultation, more days of reduced activity because of lower back pain before consultation, feelings of depression, and a perceived risk of persistence were each associated with a longer time to recovery.
Conclusions In this cohort of patients with acute low back pain in primary care, prognosis was not as favourable as claimed in clinical practice guidelines. Recovery was slow for most patients. Nearly a third of patients did not recover from the presenting episode within a year.
doi:10.1136/bmj.a171
PMCID: PMC2483884  PMID: 18614473
15.  Cluster randomised trial of a targeted multifactorial intervention to prevent falls among older people in hospital 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  2008;336(7647):758-760.
Objective To determine the efficacy of a targeted multifactorial falls prevention programme in elderly care wards with relatively short lengths of stay.
Design Cluster randomised trial.
Setting 24 elderly care wards in 12 hospitals in Sydney, Australia.
Participants 3999 patients, mean age 79 years, with a median hospital stay of seven days.
Interventions A nurse and physiotherapist each worked for 25 hours a week for three months in all intervention wards. They provided a targeted multifactorial intervention that included a risk assessment of falls, staff and patient education, drug review, modification of bedside and ward environments, an exercise programme, and alarms for selected patients.
Main outcome measure Falls during hospital stay.
Results Intervention and control wards were similar at baseline for previous rates of falls and individual patient characteristics. Overall, 381 falls occurred during the study. No difference was found in fall rates during follow-up between intervention and control wards: respectively, 9.26 falls per 1000 bed days and 9.20 falls per 1000 bed days (P=0.96). The incidence rate ratio adjusted for individual lengths of stay and previous fall rates in the ward was 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.28).
Conclusion A targeted multifactorial falls prevention programme was not effective among older people in hospital wards with relatively short lengths of stay.
Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRNO 12605000467639.
doi:10.1136/bmj.39499.546030.BE
PMCID: PMC2287238  PMID: 18332052
16.  Prognosis in patients with recent onset low back pain in Australian primary care: inception cohort study 
Objective To estimate the one year prognosis and identify prognostic factors in cases of recent onset low back pain managed in primary care.
Design Cohort study with one year follow-up.
Setting Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia.
Participants An inception cohort of 973 consecutive primary care patients (mean age 43.3, 54.8% men) with non-specific low back pain of less than two weeks’ duration recruited from the clinics of 170 general practitioners, physiotherapists, and chiropractors.
Main outcome measures Participants completed a baseline questionnaire and were contacted six weeks, three months, and 12 months after the initial consultation. Recovery was assessed in terms of return to work, return to function, and resolution of pain. The association between potential prognostic factors and time to recovery was modelled with Cox regression.
Results The follow-up rate over the 12 months was more than 97%. Half of those who reduced their work status at baseline had returned to previous work status within 14 days (95% confidence interval 11 to 17 days) and 83% had returned to previous work status by three months. Disability (median recovery time 31 days, 25 to 37 days) and pain (median 58 days, 52 to 63 days) took much longer to resolve. Only 72% of participants had completely recovered 12 months after the baseline consultation. Older age, compensation cases, higher pain intensity, longer duration of low back pain before consultation, more days of reduced activity because of lower back pain before consultation, feelings of depression, and a perceived risk of persistence were each associated with a longer time to recovery.
Conclusions In this cohort of patients with acute low back pain in primary care, prognosis was not as favourable as claimed in clinical practice guidelines. Recovery was slow for most patients. Nearly a third of patients did not recover from the presenting episode within a year.
doi:10.1136/bmj.a171
PMCID: PMC2483884  PMID: 18614473
17.  Prognosis of acute low back pain: design of a prospective inception cohort study 
Background
Clinical guidelines generally portray acute low back pain as a benign and self-limiting condition. However, evidence about the clinical course of acute low back pain is contradictory and the risk of subsequently developing chronic low back pain remains uncertain. There are few high quality prognosis studies and none that have measured pain, disability and return to work over a 12 month period. This study aims to provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain (pain of less than 2 weeks duration) in patients consulting primary care practitioners. A secondary aim is to identify factors that are associated with the prognosis of low back pain.
Methods/Design
The study is a prospective inception cohort study. Consecutive patients consulting general medical practitioners, physiotherapists and chiropractors in the Sydney metropolitan region will complete a baseline questionnaire regarding their back pain. Subsequently these patients will be followed up by telephone 6 weeks, 3 months and 12 months after the initial consultation. Patients will be considered to have recovered from the episode of back pain if they have no pain and no limitation of activity, and have returned to pre-injury work status. Life tables will be generated to determine the one year prognosis of acute low back pain. Prognostic factors will be assessed using Cox regression.
Discussion
This study will provide the first estimates of the one year prognosis of acute low back pain in a representative sample of primary care patients.
doi:10.1186/1471-2474-7-54
PMCID: PMC1543628  PMID: 16790069
18.  How fast does the Grim Reaper walk? Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis in healthy men aged 70 and over  
Objective To determine the speed at which the Grim Reaper (or Death) walks.
Design Population based prospective study.
Setting Older community dwelling men living in Sydney, Australia.
Participants 1705 men aged 70 or more participating in CHAMP (Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project).
Main outcome measures Walking speed (m/s) and mortality. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis was used to calculate the area under the curve for walking speed and determine the walking speed of the Grim Reaper. The optimal walking speed was estimated using the Youden index (sensitivity+specificity−1), a common summary measure of the receiver operating characteristics curve, and represents the maximum potential effectiveness of a marker.
Results The mean walking speed was 0.88 (range 0.15-1.60) m/s. The highest Youden index (0.293) was observed at a walking speed of 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour), corresponding to a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 70% for mortality. Survival analysis showed that older men who walked faster than 0.82 m/s were 1.23 times less likely to die (95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.37) than those who walked slower (P=0.0003). A sensitivity of 1.0 was obtained when a walking speed of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater was used, indicating that no men with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s or greater had contact with Death.
Conclusion The Grim Reaper’s preferred walking speed is 0.82 m/s (2 miles (about 3 km) per hour) under working conditions. As none of the men in the study with walking speeds of 1.36 m/s (3 miles (about 5 km) per hour) or greater had contact with Death, this seems to be the Grim Reaper’s most likely maximum speed; for those wishing to avoid their allotted fate, this would be the advised walking speed.
doi:10.1136/bmj.d7679
PMCID: PMC3240682  PMID: 22174324
19.  Integration of balance and strength training into daily life activity to reduce rate of falls in older people (the LiFE study): randomised parallel trial 
Objectives To determine whether a lifestyle integrated approach to balance and strength training is effective in reducing the rate of falls in older, high risk people living at home.
Design Three arm, randomised parallel trial; assessments at baseline and after six and 12 months. Randomisation done by computer generated random blocks, stratified by sex and fall history and concealed by an independent secure website.
Setting Residents in metropolitan Sydney, Australia.
Participants Participants aged 70 years or older who had two or more falls or one injurious fall in past 12 months, recruited from Veteran’s Affairs databases and general practice databases. Exclusion criteria were moderate to severe cognitive problems, inability to ambulate independently, neurological conditions that severely influenced gait and mobility, resident in a nursing home or hostel, or any unstable or terminal illness that would affect ability to do exercises.
Interventions Three home based interventions: Lifestyle integrated Functional Exercise (LiFE) approach (n=107; taught principles of balance and strength training and integrated selected activities into everyday routines), structured programme (n=105; exercises for balance and lower limb strength, done three times a week), sham control programme (n=105; gentle exercise). LiFE and structured groups received five sessions with two booster visits and two phone calls; controls received three home visits and six phone calls. Assessments made at baseline and after six and 12 months.
Main outcome measures Primary measure: rate of falls over 12 months, collected by self report. Secondary measures: static and dynamic balance; ankle, knee and hip strength; balance self efficacy; daily living activities; participation; habitual physical activity; quality of life; energy expenditure; body mass index; and fat free mass.
Results After 12 months’ follow-up, we recorded 172, 193, and 224 falls in the LiFE, structured exercise, and control groups, respectively. The overall incidence of falls in the LiFE programme was 1.66 per person years, compared with 1.90 in the structured programme and 2.28 in the control group. We saw a significant reduction of 31% in the rate of falls for the LiFE programme compared with controls (incidence rate ratio 0.69 (95% confidence interval 0.48 to 0.99)); the corresponding difference between the structured group and controls was non-significant (0.81 (0.56 to 1.17)). Static balance on an eight level hierarchy scale, ankle strength, function, and participation were significantly better in the LiFE group than in controls. LiFE and structured groups had a significant and moderate improvement in dynamic balance, compared with controls.
Conclusions The LiFE programme provides an alternative to traditional exercise to consider for fall prevention. Functional based exercise should be a focus for interventions to protect older, high risk people from falling and to improve and maintain functional capacity.
Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry 12606000025538.
doi:10.1136/bmj.e4547
PMCID: PMC3413733  PMID: 22872695

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