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1.  Web-based tool for dynamic functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke and comparison with existing models 
BMC Neurology  2014;14(1):214.
Background
Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is one of the leading causes of death and adult disability worldwide. In the present study, we aimed to develop a web-based risk model for predicting dynamic functional status at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after acute ischemic stroke (Dynamic Functional Status after Acute Ischemic Stroke, DFS-AIS).
Methods
The DFS-AIS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR), in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Good functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score ≤ 2 at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS, respectively. Independent predictors of each outcome measure were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and plot of observed and predicted risk were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.
Results
A total of 12,026 patients were included and the median age was 67 (interquartile range: 57–75). The proportion of patients with good functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS was 67.9%, 66.5%, 66.9% and 66.9%, respectively. Age, gender, medical history of diabetes mellitus, stroke or transient ischemic attack, current smoking and atrial fibrillation, pre-stroke dependence, pre-stroke statins using, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score, admission blood glucose were identified as independent predictors of functional outcome at different time points after AIS. The DFS-AIS was developed from sets of predictors of mRS ≤ 2 at different time points following AIS. The DFS-AIS demonstrated good discrimination in the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.837-0.845). Plots of observed versus predicted likelihood showed excellent calibration in the derivation and validation cohorts (all r = 0.99, P < 0.001). When compared to 8 existing models, the DFS-AIS showed significantly better discrimination for good functional outcome and mortality at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS (all P < 0.0001).
Conclusion
The DFS-AIS is a valid risk model to predict functional outcome at discharge, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year after AIS.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12883-014-0214-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
doi:10.1186/s12883-014-0214-z
PMCID: PMC4255632
Acute ischemic stroke; Prognosis; Risk model
2.  Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke 
BMC Gastroenterology  2014;14:130.
Background
Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke.
Methods
The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively.
Results
A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts. The AIS-GIB score was well calibrated in the derivation (P = 0.42), internal (P = 0.45) and external (P = 0.86) validation cohorts.
Conclusion
The AIS-GIB score is a valid clinical grading scale to predict in-hospital GIB after AIS. Further studies on the effect of the AIS-GIB score on reducing GIB and improving outcome after AIS are warranted.
doi:10.1186/1471-230X-14-130
PMCID: PMC4120715  PMID: 25059927
3.  A novel risk score to predict 1-year functional outcome after intracerebral hemorrhage and comparison with existing scores 
Critical Care  2013;17(6):R275.
Introduction
Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is one of leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide. Several predictive models have been developed for ICH; however, none of them have been consistently used in routine clinical practice or clinical research. In the study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting 1-year functional outcome after ICH (ICH Functional Outcome Score, ICH-FOS). Furthermore, we compared discrimination of the ICH-FOS and 8 existing ICH scores with regard to 30-day, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH.
Methods
The ICH-FOS was developed based on the China National Stroke Registry, in which eligible patients were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. Poor functional outcome was defined as modified Rankin Scale score (mRS) ≥3 at 1 year after ICH. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to determine independent predictors, and β-coefficients were used to generate scoring system of the ICH-FOS. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.
Results
The overall 1-year poor functional outcome (mRS ≥ 3) was 46.7% and 44.9% in the derivation (n = 1,953) and validation (n = 1,302) cohorts, respectively. A 16-point ICH-FOS was developed from the set of independent predictors of 1-year poor functional outcome after ICH including age (P < 0.001), admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (P < 0.001), Glasgow Coma Scale score (P < 0.001), blood glucose (P = 0.002), ICH location (P < 0.001), hematoma volume (P < 0.001), and intraventricular extension (P < 0.001). The ICH-FOS showed good discrimination (AUROC) in the derivation (0.836, 95% CI: 0.819-0.854) and validation (0.830, 95% CI: 0.808-0.852) cohorts. The ICH-FOS was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test) in the derivation (P = 0.42) and validation (P = 0.39) cohort. When compared to 8 prior ICH scores, the ICH-FOS showed significantly better discrimination with regard to 1-year functional outcome and mortality after ICH (all P < 0.0001). Meanwhile, the ICH-FOS also demonstrated either comparable or significantly better discrimination for poor functional outcome and mortality at 30-day, 3-month, and 6-month after ICH.
Conclusion
The ICH-FOS is a valid clinical grading scale for 1-year functional outcome after ICH. Further validation of the ICH-FOS in different populations is needed.
doi:10.1186/cc13130
PMCID: PMC4056008  PMID: 24289116
4.  Rationale and design of a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of nimodipine in preventing cognitive impairment in ischemic cerebrovascular events (NICE) 
BMC Neurology  2012;12:88.
Background
Stroke is the second most common cause of mortality and the leading cause of neurological disability, cognitive impairment and dementia worldwide. Nimodipine is a dihydropyridinic calcium antagonist with a role in neuroprotection, making it a promising therapy for vascular cognitive impairment and dementia.
Methods/design
The NICE study is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study being carried out in 23 centers in China. The study population includes patients aged 30–80 who have suffered an ischemic stroke (≤7 days). Participants are randomly allocated to nimodipine (90 mg/d) or placebo (90 mg/d). The primary efficacy is to evaluate the level of mild cognitive impairment following treatment of an ischemic stroke with nimodipine or placebo for 6 months. Safety is being assessed by observing side effects of nimodipine. Assuming a relative risk reduction of 22%, at least 656 patients are required in this study to obtain statistical power of 90%. The first patient was recruited in November 2010.
Discussion
Previous studies suggested that nimodipine could improve cognitive function in vascular dementia and Alzheimer’s disease dementia. It is unclear that at which time-point intervention with nimodipine should occur. Therefore, the NICE study is designed to evaluate the benefits and safety of nimodipine, which was adminstered within seven days, in preventing/treating mild cognitive impairment following ischemic stroke.
doi:10.1186/1471-2377-12-88
PMCID: PMC3488311  PMID: 22950711

Results 1-4 (4)