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1.  Increasing incidence of hypotension in the emergency department; a 12 year population-based cohort study 
The epidemiology of hypotension as presenting symptom among patients in the Emergency Department (ED) is not clarified. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence, etiology, and overall mortality of hypotensive patients in the ED.
Population-based cohort study at an University Hospital ED in Denmark from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2011. Patients aged ≥18 years living in the hospital catchment area with a first time presentation to the ED with hypotension (systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≤100 mm Hg) were included.
Outcomes were annual incidence rates (IRs) per 100,000 person years at risk (pyar) and etiological characteristics by means of the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10), as well as 7-day, 30-day, and 90-day all-cause mortality.
We identified 3,268 of 438,198 (1 %) cases with a mean overall IR of 125/100,000 pyar (95 % CI: 121–130). The IR increased 28 % during the period (from 113 to 152 cases per 100,000 pyar). Patients ≥65 years had the highest IR compared to age <65 years (rate ratio for men 6.3 (95 % CI: 5.6-7.1) and for women 4.2 (95 % CI: 3.6-4.9)). The etiology was highly diversified with trauma (17 %) and cardiovascular diseases (15 %) as the most common. The overall 7-day, 30-day and 90-day mortality rates were 15 % (95 % CI: 14–16), 22 % (95 % CI: 21–24) and 28 % (95 % CI: 27–30) respectively.
During 2000–2011 the overall incidence of ED hypotension increased and remained highest among the elderly with a diversified etiology and a 90-day all-cause mortality of 28 %.
PMCID: PMC4776382  PMID: 26936190
Hypotension; Epidemiology; Incidence; Etiology; Mortality; Emergency department
2.  Short interferon and ribavirin treatment for HCV genotype 2 or 3 infection: NORDynamIC trial and real-life experience 
Objective: Interferon-free therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is costly, and therefore patients with advanced fibrosis are prioritized. Although coupled with considerable side effects, a large proportion of genotype 2/3 infected patients achieve a sustained virological response (SVR) following interferon-based therapy. The present study evaluates experimental clinical trial and verifying real-life data with the aim of identifying patients with a high likelihood of favorable outcome following short interferon-based treatment. Material and methods: The impact of established response predictors, e.g. age, ITPA and IL28B genetic variants, IP-10, liver histopathology and early viral kinetics on outcome was evaluated among HCV genotype 2/3 infected patients enrolled in the NORDynamIC trial. Similarly outcome was evaluated among Finnish and Swedish real-life genotype 2/3 infected patients treated for 12–16 weeks in accordance with national guidelines. Results: In the NORDynamIC trial, age <40 years or achieving HCV RNA <1000 IU/mL day 7 were highly predictive of favorable outcome following 12 weeks therapy. Among 255 Finnish real-life patients below the age of 40 years treated for 12 weeks with interferon and ribavirin, 87% of HCV genotype 2 and 79% of genotype 3 infected patients achieved SVR, and among 117 Swedish real-life patients treated for 12–16 weeks, 97% of HCV genotype 2 and 94% of genotype 3 infected achieved SVR. Conclusions: Short interferon-based therapy offers a high likelihood of achieving SVR for selected HCV genotype 2/3 infected patients, and is an acceptable option given that a thorough discussion of the side effects is provided prior to initiation.
PMCID: PMC4732462  PMID: 26418670
genotype 2; genotype 3; hepatitis C virus; inosine triphosphate pyrophosphatase; interferon; ITPA; ribavirin
3.  HIV-Specific Antibody-Dependent Cellular Cytotoxicity (ADCC) -Mediating Antibodies Decline while NK Cell Function Increases during Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(12):e0145249.
Understanding alterations in HIV-specific immune responses during antiretroviral therapy (ART), such as antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), is important in the development of novel strategies to control HIV-1 infection. This study included 53 HIV-1 positive individuals. We evaluated the ability of effector cells and antibodies to mediate ADCC separately and in combination using the ADCC-PanToxiLux assay. The ability of the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) to mediate ADCC was significantly higher in individuals who had been treated with ART before seroconversion, compared to the individuals initiating ART at a low CD4+ T cell count (<350 cells/μl blood) and the ART-naïve individuals. The frequency of CD16 expressing natural killer (NK) cells correlated with both the duration of ART and Granzyme B (GzB) activity. In contrast, the plasma titer of antibodies mediating ADCC declined during ART. These findings suggest improved cytotoxic function of the NK cells if initiating ART early during infection, while the levels of ADCC mediating antibodies declined during ART.
PMCID: PMC4692281  PMID: 26696395
4.  Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) at Different Stages of HIV-1 Disease Is Not Associated with the Proportion of Exhausted CD8+ T Cells 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(10):e0139573.
CD8+ T cell-restricted immunity is important in the control of HIV-1 infection, but continued immune activation results in CD8+ T cell dysfunction. Early initiation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and the duration of ART have been associated with immune reconstitution. Here, we evaluated whether restoration of CD8+ T cell function in HIV-1-infected individuals was dependent on early initiation of ART. HIV-specific CD107a, IFNγ, IL-2, TNFα and MIP-1β expression by CD8+ T cells and the frequency of CD8+ T cells expressing PD-1, 2B4 and CD160 were measured by flow cytometry. The frequency of CD8+ T cells expressing the inhibitory markers PD-1, 2B4 and CD160 was lower in ART-treated individuals compared with ART-naïve individuals and similar to the frequency in HIV-uninfected controls. The expression of the three markers was similarly independent of when therapy was initiated. Individuals treated before seroconversion displayed an HIV-specific CD8+ T cell response that included all five functional markers; this was not observed in individuals treated after seroconversion or in ART-naïve individuals. In summary, ART appears to restore the total CD8+ T cell population to a less exhausted phenotype, independent of the time point of initiation. However, to preserve multifunctional, HIV-1-specific CD8+ T cells, ART might have to be initiated before seroconversion.
PMCID: PMC4591005  PMID: 26426913
5.  Smoking and renal function in people living with human immunodeficiency virus: a Danish nationwide cohort study 
Clinical Epidemiology  2015;7:391-399.
Smoking is a main risk factor for morbidity and mortality in people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV), but its potential association with renal impairment remains to be established.
We did a nationwide population-based cohort study in Danish PLHIV to evaluate the association between smoking status and 1) overall renal function and risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD), 2) risk of any renal replacement therapy (aRRT), and 3) mortality following aRRT. We calculated estimated creatinine clearance using the Cockcroft–Gault equation (CG-CrCl), and evaluated renal function graphically. We calculated cumulative incidence of CKD (defined as two consecutive CG-CrCls of ≤60 mL/min, ≥3 months apart) and aRRT and used Cox regression models to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for risk of CKD, aRRT, and mortality rate ratios (MRRs) following aRRT.
From the Danish HIV Cohort Study, we identified 1,475 never smokers, 768 previous smokers, and 2,272 current smokers. During study period, we observed no association of smoking status with overall renal function. Previous and current smoking was not associated with increased risk of CKD (adjusted IRR: 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.7–1.7; adjusted IRR: 1.3, 95% CI: 0.9–1.8) or aRRT (adjusted IRR: 0.8, 95% CI: 0.4–1.7; adjusted IRR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.5–1.7). Mortality following aRRT was high in PLHIV and increased in smokers vs never smokers (adjusted MRR: 3.8, 95% CI: 1.3–11.2).
In Danish PLHIV, we observed no strong association between smoking status and renal function, risk of CKD, or risk of aRRT, but mortality was increased in smokers following aRRT.
PMCID: PMC4559253  PMID: 26357490
chronic kidney disease; renal replacement therapy; mortality; creatinine clearance; incidence rate ratio; mortality rate ratio
7.  Low Completeness of Bacteraemia Registration in the Danish National Patient Registry 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(6):e0131682.
Bacteraemia is associated with significant morbidity and mortality and timely access to relia-ble information is essential for health care administrators. Therefore, we investigated the complete-ness of bacteraemia registration in the Danish National Patient Registry (DNPR) containing hospital discharge diagnoses and surgical procedures for all non-psychiatric patients. As gold standard we identified bacteraemia patients in three defined areas of Denmark (~2.3 million inhabitants) from 2000 through 2011 by use of blood culture data retrieved from electronic microbiology databases. Diagnoses coded according to the International Classification of Diseases, version 10, and surgical procedure codes were retrieved from the DNPR. The codes were categorized into seven groups, ranked a priori according to the likelihood of bacteraemia. Completeness was analysed by contin-gency tables, for all patients and subgroups. We identified 58,139 bacteraemic episodes in 48,450 patients; 37,740 episodes (64.9%) were covered by one or more discharge diagnoses within the sev-en diagnosis/surgery groups and 18,786 episodes (32.3%) had a code within the highest priority group. Completeness varied substantially according to speciality (from 17.9% for surgical to 36.4% for medical), place of acquisition (from 26.0% for nosocomial to 36.2% for community), and mi-croorganism (from 19.5% for anaerobic Gram-negative bacteria to 36.8% for haemolytic strepto-cocci). The completeness increased from 25.1% in 2000 to 35.1% in 2011. In conclusion, one third of the bacteraemic episodes did not have a relevant diagnosis in the Danish administrative registry recording all non-psychiatric contacts. This source of information should be used cautiously to iden-tify patients with bacteraemia.
PMCID: PMC4488274  PMID: 26121584
8.  Risk Factors for Hospitalization Due to Community-Acquired Sepsis – A Population-Based Case-Control Study 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(4):e0124838.
The aim of the study was to estimate risk factors for hospitalization due to sepsis and to determine whether these risk factors vary by age and gender.
We performed a population-based case-control study of all adult patients admitted to a medical ED from September 2010 to August 2011. Controls were sampled within the hospital catchment-area. All potential cases were manually validated using a structured protocol. Vital signs and laboratory values measured at arrival were registered to define systemic inflammatory response syndrome and organ dysfunction. Multivariable logistic regression was used to elucidate which predefined risk factors were associated with an increased or decreased risk hospitalization due to sepsis.
A total of 1713 patients were admitted with sepsis of any severity. The median age was 72 years (interquartile range: 57–81 years) and 793 (46.3%) were male. 621 (36.3%) patients were admitted with sepsis, 1071 (62.5%) with severe sepsis and 21 (1.2%) with septic shock. Episodes with sepsis of any severity were associated with older age (85+ years adjusted OR 6.02 [95%CI: 5.09–7.12]), immunosuppression (4.41 [3.83–5.09]), alcoholism-related conditions (2.90 [2.41–3.50]), and certain comorbidities: psychotic disorder (1.90 [1.58–2.27]), neurological (1.98 [1.73–2.26]), respiratory (3.58 [3.16–4.06]), cardiovascular (1.62 [1.41–1.85]), diabetes (1.82 [1.57–2.12]), cancer (1.44 [1.22–1.68]), gastrointestinal (1.71 [1.44–2.05]) and renal (1.46 [1.13–1.89]). The strength of the observed associations for comorbid factors was strongest among younger individuals.
Hospitalization due to sepsis of any severity was associated with several independent risk factors, including age and comorbid factors.
PMCID: PMC4405362  PMID: 25898024
9.  Nontraumatic Hypotension and Shock in the Emergency Department and the Prehospital setting, Prevalence, Etiology, and Mortality: A Systematic Review 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(3):e0119331.
Acute patients presenting with hypotension in the prehospital or emergency department (ED) setting are in need of focused management and knowledge of the epidemiology characteristics might help the clinician. The aim of this review was to address prevalence, etiology and mortality of nontraumatic hypotension (SBP ≤ 90 mmHg) with or without the presence of shock in the prehospital and ED setting.
We performed a systematic literature search up to August 2013, using Medline, Embase, Cinahl, Dare and The Cochrane Library. The analysis and eligibility criteria were documented according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA-guidelines) and The Cochrane Collaboration. No restrictions on language, publication date, or status were imposed. We used the Newcastle-Ottawa quality assessment scale (NOS-scale) and the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational studies in Epidemiology (STROBE-statement) to assess the quality.
Six observational studies were considered eligible for analysis based on the evaluation of 11,880 identified papers. Prehospital prevalence of hypotension was 19.5/1000 emergency medicine service (EMS) contacts, and the prevalence of hypotensive shock was 9.5-19/1000 EMS contacts with an inhospital mortality of shock between 33 to 52%. ED prevalence of hypotension was 4-13/1000 contacts with a mortality of 12%. Information on mortality, prevalence and etiology of shock in the ED was limited. A meta-analysis was not feasible due to substantial heterogeneity between studies.
There is inadequate evidence to establish concise estimates of the characteristics of nontraumatic hypotension and shock in the ED or in the prehospital setting. The available studies suggest that 2% of EMS contacts present with nontraumatic hypotension while 1-2% present with shock. The inhospital mortality of prehospital shock is 33-52%. Prevalence of hypotension in the ED is 1% with an inhospital mortality of 12%. Prevalence, etiology and mortality of shock in the ED are not well described.
PMCID: PMC4366173  PMID: 25789927
10.  Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, calprotectin and YKL-40 in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: correlations and 5-year mortality – a cohort study 
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by chronic inflammation and progressive decline in pulmonary function. Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), YKL-40 and calprotectin are biomarkers of inflammation and predict mortality in patients with different inflammatory diseases. We aimed to investigate the correlation between levels of these three biomarkers and neutrophil granulocyte and lymphocyte count in patients with moderate to very severe COPD stratified by use of systemic glucocorticoids. Furthermore, we studied the ability of these biomarkers to predict all-cause mortality.
386 patients with moderate to very severe COPD were followed prospectively for 10 years. Patients were divided into two groups according to systemic glucocorticoid use at baseline. Correlations between biomarkers were assessed by Spearman’s Rho, and mortality was evaluated in uni- and multivariate Cox regression analyses with hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).
Plasma calprotectin was positively correlated with neutrophil granulocyte count and NLR. No significant association was found between plasma YKL-40 and the cellular biomarkers, irrespective of glucocorticoid treatment. In the group not treated with systemic glucocorticoids, plasma calprotectin [HR 1.002 (95% CI 1.000 – 1.004)], NLR [HR 1.090 (1.036 – 1.148)] and lymphocyte count [HR 0.667 (0.522 – 0.851)] were significantly associated with higher mortality. In the group treated with systemic glucocorticoids, higher plasma YKL-40 was significantly associated with mortality in univariate Cox regression analysis [HR 1.006 (1.003 – 1.008)].
Calprotectin was related to neutrophil granulocyte count and NLR in patients with moderate to very severe COPD in stable phase and not in treatment with systemic glucocorticoids. Lymphopenia, higher plasma calprotectin and higher NLR were independent predictors of increased all-cause mortality in this group. Our data also suggests that treatment with systemic glucocorticoids has a significant impact on the ability of inflammatory biomarkers to predict all-cause mortality.
Trial registration NCT00132860.
PMCID: PMC4407303  PMID: 25908927
COPD; Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio; Calprotectin; YKL-40; Lymphopenia; Mortality; Glucocorticoids; Prognosis
11.  Liver Stiffness Measurement among Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B and C: Results from a 5-Year Prospective Study 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(11):e111912.
Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is widely used to evaluate liver fibrosis, but longitudinal studies are rare. The current study was aimed to monitor LSM during follow-up, and to evaluate the association of LSM data with mortality and liver-related outcomes. We included all patients with chronic viral hepatitis and valid LSM using Fibroscan. Information about liver biopsy, antiviral treatment, and clinical outcome was obtained from medical records and national registers. The study included 845 patients: 597 (71%) with hepatitis C virus (HCV), 235 (28%) with hepatitis B virus (HBV) and 13 (2%) with dual infection. The initial LSM distribution (<7/7–9.9/10–16.9/≥17 kPa) was 58%/16%/14%/12%. Among patients with initial LSM values of 7–9.9 kPa, 60% of HCV patients and 83% of HBV patients showed LSM values of <7 kPa at the latest follow-up. Progression rates (defined as >20% and >2 kPa increase, with one measure >7 kPa) were 3.4/100 person years (PY) for HCV and 1.5/100 PY for HBV infected patients. Patients with LSM values of ≥17 kPa had the same liver-related complication incidence as patients with biopsy-proven cirrhosis (11.1 versus 12.1/100 PY). Thirteen liver-related deaths occurred among HCV patients (0.6/100 PY), but none among HBV patients. Among patients who died of liver-related causes, all but one had baseline LSM values of ≥17 kPa. Overall, patients with LSM values <17 kPa were not associated with adverse outcomes. In contrast, LSM values ≥17 kPa were associated with significant risk of liver-related problems. The results of the current study suggest that clinical decisions should not be taken based on a single LSM measurement.
PMCID: PMC4219798  PMID: 25369038
12.  Long term effectiveness of once-daily unboosted atazanavir plus abacavir/lamivudine as a switch strategy in subjects with virological suppression 
Journal of the International AIDS Society  2014;17(4Suppl 3):19810.
Use of unboosted atazanavir (ATV400) is approved in the US but not in Europe [1]. Due to pharmacokinetic interactions it should not be used with tenofovir but can be used with abacavir/lamivudine (ABC/3TC) [1, 2,3]. Effectiveness data of ATV400+ABC/3TC as a switch strategy in clinical routine however are scant.
We evaluated treatment outcomes of ATV400+ABC/3TC in pre-treated subjects in the EuroSIDA cohort with undetectable HIV-1 RNA, and previous ABC experience or assumed previous HLA B57*01 testing. We performed a time to loss of virologic response (TLOVR below 50 c/mL) and a snapshot analysis at 48, 96 and 144 weeks. Virological failure (VF) was defined as a confirmed plasma HIV-1 RNA >50 c/mL.
We included 258 subjects: 176 (68%) male, median age 46 (IQR 41, 53) y, 225 (87.2%) white, hepatitis virus co-infection 36%, median baseline CD4 at switch 540 cells (360, 700), time with VL≤ 50 c/mL 45 (24, 69) months. The median calendar year of switching was 2008 (2006, 2010). The 3rd drug in previous regimen was ATV/r in 70 (27.1%), other PI/r in 25 (9.7%), and other 163 (63.2%); 85 (32.9%) had previously failed with a PI. The virological response at 48/96/144 weeks was, respectively, 89.5 [95% CI 85.1, 92.9]/88 [83.4, 91.7]/86.3% [81.6, 90.4] (TLOVR, composite endpoint failure or stop for any reason) and the risk of VF was 8.3/7.6/7.6%. In the snapshot analysis HIV-RNA was below 50 c/mL in 72.5/65.9/51.6%, respectively, and >50 c/mL in 6.6/5.4/4.3%. Only 0.8/1.9/3.5% discontinued due to adverse events. There was a high rate of discontinuations due to other reasons or with VL missing in window. In a multivariate adjusted analysis, we observed an association between VF and nadir CD4 count (RH 0.60 [0.39, 0.93] per 100 cells higher), time with VL≤50 c/mL (RH 0.89 [0.81, 0.98] per 6 months longer) and previous failure with a PI (3.04 [1.36, 6.80]). There was no association with gender, age, hepatitis virus co-infection, CD4 count at time of switching or third drug used in the previous regimen.
A switch to ATV400+ABC/3TC in selected subjects with HIV-RNA below 50 c/mL is associated with relatively low rates of VF and discontinuation due to adverse events. Use might be considered in those with long-term suppression and without prior PI failure. Larger cohorts are required to further define the appropriate selection criteria.
PMCID: PMC4225315  PMID: 25397554
13.  How do bacteraemic patients present to the emergency department and what is the diagnostic validity of the clinical parameters; temperature, C-reactive protein and systemic inflammatory response syndrome? 
Although blood cultures are often ordered based on the presence of fever, it is a clinical challenge to identify patients eligible for blood cultures. Our aim was to evaluate the diagnostic value of temperature, C-reactive-protein (CRP), and Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) to identify bacteraemic patients in the Medical Emergency Department (MED).
A population-based cohort study including all adult patients at the MED at Odense University Hospital between August 1st 2009 - August 31st 2011.
11,988 patients were admitted to the MED within the study period. Blood cultures were performed on 5,499 (45.9%) patients within 2 days of arrival, of which 418 (7.6%) patients were diagnosed with bacteraemia. This corresponded to 3.5% of all patients. 34.1% of the bacteraemic patients had a normal rectal temperature (36.0°–38.0°C) recorded at arrival, 32.6% had a CRP < 100 mg/L and 28.0% did not fulfil the SIRS criteria.
For a temperature cut-point of >38.0°C sensitivity was 0.64 (95% CI 0.59–0.69) and specificity was 0.81 (0.80–0.82) to identify bacteraemic patients.
One third of the acute medical bacteraemic patients had a normal temperature at arrival to the MED. A normal temperature combined with a CRP < 100 mg/L and no SIRS criteria, ruled out bacteraemia.
PMCID: PMC4107625  PMID: 25027551
Bacteraemia; Emergency medicine; C-reactive protein; Temperature; Systemic inflammatory response syndrome
14.  Drug resistance in HIV patients with virological failure or slow virological response to antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia 
BMC Infectious Diseases  2014;14:181.
The ongoing scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has prompted the interest in surveillance of transmitted and acquired HIV drug resistance. Resistance data on virological failure and mutations in HIV infected populations initiating treatment in sub-Saharan Africa is sparse.
HIV viral load (VL) and resistance mutations pre-ART and after 6 months were determined in a prospective cohort study of ART-naïve HIV patients initiating first-line therapy in Jimma, Ethiopia. VL measurements were done at baseline and after 3 and 6 months. Genotypic HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) was performed on patients exhibiting virological failure (>1000 copies/mL at 6 months) or slow virological response (>5000 copies/mL at 3 months and <1000 copies/mL at 6 months).
Two hundred sixty five patients had VL data available at baseline and at 6 months. Virological failure was observed among 14 (5.3%) participants out of 265 patients. Twelve samples were genotyped and six had HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) mutations at baseline. Among virological failures, 9/11 (81.8%) harbored one or more HIVDR mutations at 6 months. The most frequent mutations were K103N and M184VI.
Our data confirm that the currently recommended first-line ART regimen is efficient in the vast majority of individuals initiating therapy in Jimma, Ethiopia eight years after the introduction of ART. However, the documented occurrence of transmitted resistance and accumulation of acquired HIVDR mutations among failing patients justify increased vigilance by improving the availability and systematic use of VL testing to monitor ART response, and underlines the need for rapid, inexpensive tests to identify the most common drug resistance mutations.
PMCID: PMC4234735  PMID: 24708645
15.  A Novel Fibrosis Index Comprising a Non-Cholesterol Sterol Accurately Predicts HCV-Related Liver Cirrhosis 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(4):e93601.
Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5–6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI) in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis) = −12.17+ (age×0.11) + (BMI (kg/m2)×0.23) + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol)×(−0.013)) + (Platelet count (x109/L)×(−0.018)) + (Prothrombin-INR×3.69). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86–0.96). The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82–0.98). In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.
PMCID: PMC3974766  PMID: 24699777
16.  How Well Do Discharge Diagnoses Identify Hospitalised Patients with Community-Acquired Infections? – A Validation Study 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(3):e92891.
Credible measures of disease incidence, trends and mortality can be obtained through surveillance using manual chart review, but this is both time-consuming and expensive. ICD-10 discharge diagnoses are used as surrogate markers of infection, but knowledge on the validity of infections in general is sparse. The aim of the study was to determine how well ICD-10 discharge diagnoses identify patients with community-acquired infections in a medical emergency department (ED), overall and related to sites of infection and patient characteristics.
We manually reviewed 5977 patients admitted to a medical ED in a one-year period (September 2010-August 2011), to establish if they were hospitalised with community-acquired infection. Using the manual review as gold standard, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios of discharge diagnoses indicating infection.
Two thousand five hundred eleven patients were identified with community-acquired infection according to chart review (42.0%, 95% confidence interval [95%CI]: 40.8–43.3%) compared to 2550 patients identified by ICD-10 diagnoses (42.8%, 95%CI: 41.6–44.1%). Sensitivity of the ICD-10 diagnoses was 79.9% (95%CI: 78.1–81.3%), specificity 83.9% (95%CI: 82.6–85.1%), positive likelihood ratio 4.95 (95%CI: 4.58–5.36) and negative likelihood ratio 0.24 (95%CI: 0.22–0.26). The two most common sites of infection, the lower respiratory tract and urinary tract, had positive likelihood ratios of 8.3 (95%CI: 7.5–9.2) and 11.3 (95%CI: 10.2–12.9) respectively. We identified significant variation in diagnostic validity related to age, comorbidity and disease severity.
ICD-10 discharge diagnoses identify specific sites of infection with a high degree of validity, but only a moderate degree when identifying infections in general.
PMCID: PMC3963967  PMID: 24663388
17.  Plasma YKL-40 and all-cause mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is hallmarked by inflammatory processes and a progressive decline of lung function. YKL-40 is a potential biomarker of inflammation and mortality in patients suffering from inflammatory lung disease, but its prognostic value in patients with COPD remains unknown. We investigated whether high plasma YKL-40 was associated with increased mortality in patients with moderate to very severe COPD.
Four hundred and ninety-three patients with moderate to very severe COPD were followed prospectively for up to 10 years. Patients were divided into two groups according to plasma YKL-40: concentration higher than the 75th percentile for age-matched healthy subjects (i.e. high levels) and normal levels. Outcome was overall survival (OS) and was evaluated in uni- and multivariate proportional hazards Cox regression analyses and adjusted for factors affecting mortality.
Median plasma YKL-40 was increased in patients with COPD (81 ng/ml, p < 0.001) compared to healthy subjects (40 ng/ml). Patients with high plasma YKL-40 had a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.15–1.75, p = 0.001) for all-cause mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that YKL-40 (HR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.11–1.72, p = 0.004), age (HR 1.05; 95% CI: 1.03–1.06, p < 0.0001), Severe COPD (HR 1.35; 95 CI: 1.03-1.76, p = 0.03) very severe COPD (HR 2.19; 95% CI: 1.60 - 2.99 < 0.0001), neutrophil granulocyte count (HR 1.05; 95% CI: 1.01-1.08, p = 0.01), and a smoking history of > 40 years (HR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.11-1.71, p = 0.003) were independent prognostic markers of OS.
High plasmaYKL-40 is associated with increased mortality in patients with moderate to very severe COPD, suggesting a role for YKL-40 as a potential biomarker of mortality in this patient group.
Trial registration NCT00132860.
PMCID: PMC3890498  PMID: 24373580
COPD; Inflammation; Mortality; Prognosis; YKL-40
19.  Statin Therapy and Mortality in HIV-Infected Individuals; A Danish Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(3):e52828.
Recent studies have suggested that statins possess diverse immune modulatory and anti-inflammatory properties. As statins might attenuate inflammation, statin therapy has been hypothesized to reduce mortality in HIV-infected individuals. We therefore used a Danish nationwide cohort of HIV-infected individuals to estimate the impact of statin use on mortality before and after a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease or diabetes.
We identified all Danish HIV-infected individuals (1,738) who initiated HAART after 1 January 1998, and achieved virological suppression within 180 days. Date of first redemption of a prescription of statin was obtained from the Danish National Prescription Registry. We used Poisson regression analysis to assess adjusted mortality rate ratios (aMRR). First, time was censored at date of virological failure (VL >500 copies/ml). Second, time was not censored at virological failure. All analyses were adjusted for potential confounders.
In the analyses confined to observation time without virological failure (+ censoring) statin therapy was associated with a non-statistically significant reduced rate of death (aMRR 0.75; 95% CI: 0.33–1.68). No difference was observed in the analysis with no censoring (aMRR 1.17; 95% CI: 0.66–2.07). Use of statin seemed to reduce mortality in individuals after a diagnosis of comorbidity {(+ censoring: aMRR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.11–1.04), (−censoring: aMRR: 0.64; 95% CI: 0.32–1.29)}. No difference in rate of death could be detected before first date of diagnosis of comorbidity {(+ censoring: aMRR: 1.12; 95% CI: 0.34–3.62), (−censoring: aMRR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.28–2.88)}.
Statin therapy might reduce all-cause mortality in HIV-infected individuals, but the impact on individuals with no comorbidity seems small or absent. An unambiguous proof of a causal relation can only be obtained in a randomized controlled trial, but the sample size predicted may be prohibitive for its conduct.
PMCID: PMC3587599  PMID: 23469159
20.  PNPLA 3 I148M genetic variant associates with insulin resistance and baseline viral load in HCV genotype 2 but not in genotype 3 infection 
BMC Medical Genetics  2012;13:82.
Hepatic steatosis in HCV patients has been postulated as a risk factor associated with a higher frequency of fibrosis and cirrhosis. A single genetic variant, PNPLA3 I148M, has been widely associated with increased hepatic steatosis. Previous studies of the PNPLA3 I148M sequence variant in HCV infected individuals have reported an association between this variant and prevalence of steatosis, fibrosis, and cirrhosis. To evaluate the impact of PNPLA3 I148M variant on metabolic traits and treatment response in HCV genotype 2 and 3 infected patients.
Three hundred and eighty-two treatment naïve HCV genotype 2 or 3 infected patients were included in a phase III, open label, randomized, multicenter, investigator-initiated trial (the NORDynamIC study), in which pretreatment liver biopsies were mandatory. PNPLA3I148M genotyping was performed in a total of 359 Caucasian patients.
In HCV genotype 2 infected patients carrying the PNPLA3 148M allele, there was significantly increased insulin resistance (P = 0.023) and lower viral load (P = 0.005) at baseline as well as the first seven days of antiviral treatment. These results were not observed in HCV genotype 3 infected patients.
Our results suggest a possible association between the PNPLA3 148M allele and insulin resistance as well as baseline viral load in HCV genotype 2, but not in genotype 3.
PMCID: PMC3495049  PMID: 22978414
Hepatitis C; PNPLA 3; Insulin resistance; Viral load
21.  Risk of Diabetes Mellitus in Persons with and without HIV: A Danish Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(9):e44575.
In a nationwide, population-based cohort study we assessed the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) in HIV-infected individuals compared with the general population, and evaluated the impact of risk factors for DM in HIV-infected individuals.
We identified 4,984 Danish-born HIV-infected individuals from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and a Danish born population-based age- and gender-matched comparison cohort of 19,936 individuals (study period: 1996–2009). Data on DM was obtained from the Danish National Hospital Registry and the Danish National Prescription Registry. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) and impact of risk factors including exposure to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) and antiretroviral drugs were estimated by Poisson regression analyses.
In the period 1996–1999 risk of DM was higher in HIV-infected individuals compared to the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR: 2.83; 95%CI: 1.57–5.09), both before (adjusted IRR: 2.40; 95%CI: 1.03–5.62) and after HAART initiation (adjusted IRR: 3.24; 95% CI: 1.42–7.39). In the period 1999–2010 the risk of DM in HIV-infected individuals did not differ from that of the comparison cohort (adjusted IRR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.72–1.13), although the risk was decreased before HAART-initiation (adjusted IRR: 0.45; 95%CI: 0.21–0.96). Increasing age, BMI and the presence of lipoatrophy increased the risk of DM, as did exposure to indinavir, saquinavir, stavudine and didanosine.
Native HIV–infected individuals do not have an increased risk of developing DM compared to a native background population after year 1998. Some antiretroviral drugs, not used in modern antiretroviral treatment, seem to increase the risk of DM.
PMCID: PMC3440341  PMID: 22984529
22.  Plasma HIV Viral Rebound following Protocol-Indicated Cessation of ART Commenced in Primary and Chronic HIV Infection 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(8):e43754.
The magnitude of HIV viral rebound following ART cessation has consequences for clinical outcome and onward transmission. We compared plasma viral load (pVL) rebound after stopping ART initiated in primary (PHI) and chronic HIV infection (CHI).
Two populations with protocol-indicated ART cessation from SPARTAC (PHI, n = 182) and SMART (CHI, n = 1450) trials.
Time for pVL to reach pre-ART levels after stopping ART was assessed in PHI using survival analysis. Differences in pVL between PHI and CHI populations 4 weeks after stopping ART were examined using linear and logistic regression. Differences in pVL slopes up to 48 weeks were examined using linear mixed models and viral burden was estimated through a time-averaged area-under-pVL curve. CHI participants were categorised by nadir CD4 at ART stop.
Of 171 PHI participants, 71 (41.5%) rebounded to pre-ART pVL levels, at a median of 50 (95% CI 48–51) weeks after stopping ART. Four weeks after stopping treatment, although the proportion with pVL≥400 copies/ml was similar (78% PHI versus 79% CHI), levels were 0.45 (95% CI 0.26–0.64) log10 copies/ml lower for PHI versus CHI, and remained lower up to 48 weeks. Lower CD4 nadir in CHI was associated with higher pVL after ART stop. Rebound for CHI participants with CD4 nadir >500 cells/mm3 was comparable to that experienced by PHI participants.
Stopping ART initiated in PHI and CHI was associated with viral rebound to levels conferring increased transmission risk, although the level of rebound was significantly lower and sustained in PHI compared to CHI.
PMCID: PMC3432055  PMID: 22952756
23.  Adherence to national guidelines for initiation of antiretroviral regimens in HIV patients: a Danish nationwide study 
To determine the adherence to the national guidelines for start of highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) in HIV infected patients.
We used a Danish nationwide cohort of HIV infected patients to calculate the fraction of patients who in the period 1997–2006 started HAART according to the guidelines from The Danish Society of Infectious Diseases. We used Kaplan-Meier tables to estimate time from fulfilling the criteria for start of HAART to initiation of the treatment. Cox regression and logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for delayed initiation of treatment and chance of being included in clinical trials.
The study included 3223 patients, 74% of whom initiated HAART in the study period. Ninety-four% fulfilled the criteria for start of HAART, with minor differences over calendar periods. Ninety-four% initiated a recommended regimen or were included in a clinical trial. Intravenous drug use predicted initiation of a non-recommended regimen and delay in start of HAART, while non-Caucasians were less likely to be included in clinical trials.
In a Western world setting, the adherence to national guidelines for start of HAART can be high. We suggest that simplicity of the guidelines, centralization of treatment and involvement of local clinicians in the development of guidelines are of major importance for high adherence to treatment guidelines.
PMCID: PMC3141193  PMID: 21306418
antiretroviral therapy; guideline adherence; HIV
24.  Impact of Obesity on the Bioavailability of Peginterferon-α2a and Ribavirin and Treatment Outcome for Chronic Hepatitis C Genotype 2 or 3 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(5):e37521.
Background and Aims
Having a body mass index above or equal to 30 kg/m2 in conjunction with chronic hepatitis C virus infection is associated with non-responsiveness to treatment with interferon and ribavirin, but details regarding the mechanisms whereby obesity reduces the efficacy of therapy remain unclear.
This study evaluated impact of obesity on outcome as well as interferon and ribavirin concentrations following standard-of-care fixed dosing with peginterferon-α2a 180 µg once weekly and ribavirin 800 mg daily among 303 HCV genotype 2/3-infected patients enrolled in the per-protocol analysis of a recently completed phase III trial (NORDynamIC).
Patients with BMI ≥30 kg/m2 showed poorer outcome following 24 weeks of therapy (SVR 62% vs. 89% for BMI ≥30 vs. <30; P = 0.006) along with significantly higher steatosis grade (P = 0.002), HOMA-IR (P<0.0001), triglyceride levels (P = 0.0002), and baseline viral load (P = 0.028). Obesity was also significantly associated with lower plasma interferon concentrations on days 3, 7, and 29 (P = 0.02, P = 0.0017, and P<0.0001, respectively) and lower plasma ribavirin concentrations day 29 (P = 0.025), and lower concentration of interferon in turn was associated with a poorer first phase reduction in HCV RNA (P<0.0001). In multivariate analysis, ribavirin concentrations week 12, interferon concentrations day 29, and baseline HCV RNA levels were independent predictors of achieving SVR among patients treated for 24 weeks (n = 140).
Reduced bioavailability of interferon and ribavirin along with higher baseline viral load are dominant risk factors for treatment failure in obese patients with chronic hepatitis C.
PMCID: PMC3360051  PMID: 22655053

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