Family studies suggest a genetic component to the etiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end stage renal disease (ESRD). Previously, we identified 16 loci for eGFR in genome-wide association studies, but the associations of these single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for incident CKD or ESRD are unknown. We thus investigated the association of these loci with incident CKD in 26,308 individuals of European ancestry free of CKD at baseline drawn from eight population-based cohorts followed for a median of 7.2 years (including 2,122 incident CKD cases defined as eGFR <60ml/min/1.73m2 at follow-up) and with ESRD in four case-control studies in subjects of European ancestry (3,775 cases, 4,577 controls). SNPs at 11 of the 16 loci (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, SHROOM3, DACH1, STC1, SLC34A1, ALMS1/NAT8, UBE2Q2, and GCKR) were associated with incident CKD; p-values ranged from p = 4.1e-9 in UMOD to p = 0.03 in GCKR. After adjusting for baseline eGFR, six of these loci remained significantly associated with incident CKD (UMOD, PRKAG2, ANXA9, DAB2, DACH1, and STC1). SNPs in UMOD (OR = 0.92, p = 0.04) and GCKR (OR = 0.93, p = 0.03) were nominally associated with ESRD. In summary, the majority of eGFR-related loci are either associated or show a strong trend towards association with incident CKD, but have modest associations with ESRD in individuals of European descent. Additional work is required to characterize the association of genetic determinants of CKD and ESRD at different stages of disease progression.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects about 6%–11% of the general population, and progression to end stage renal disease (ESRD) has a significant public health impact. Family studies suggest that the risk for CKD and ESRD is heritable. Unraveling the genetic underpinning of risk for these diseases may lead to the identification of novel mechanisms and thus diagnostic and therapeutic tools. We have previously identified 16 genetic markers in association with kidney function and prevalent CKD in general population studies. However, little is known about the relevance of these SNPs to the initial development of CKD or to ESRD risk. Therefore, we have now analyzed the association of these markers with the initiation of CKD in more than 26,000 individuals from the general population using serial estimations of kidney function, and with ESRD in four case-control studies in subjects of European ancestry (3,775 cases, 4,577 controls). We show that many of the 16 markers are also associated or show a strong trend towards association with initiation of CKD, while only 2 markers are nominally associated with ESRD. Further work is required to characterize the association of genetic determinants of different stages of CKD progression.