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1.  Cost-Effectiveness of Tdap Vaccination of Adults Aged ≥65 Years in the Prevention of Pertussis in the US: A Dynamic Model of Disease Transmission 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(1):e72723.
In February 2012, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) advised that all adults aged ≥65 years receive a single dose of reduced-antigen-content tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), expanding on a 2010 recommendation for adults >65 that was limited to those with close contact with infants. We evaluated clinical and economic outcomes of adding Tdap booster of adults aged ≥65 to “baseline” practice [full-strength DTaP administered from 2 months to 4–6 years, and one dose of Tdap at 11–64 years replacing decennial Td booster], using a dynamic model.
We constructed a population-level disease transmission model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of supplementing baseline practice by vaccinating 10% of eligible adults aged ≥65 with Tdap replacing the decennial Td booster. US population effects, including indirect benefits accrued by unvaccinated persons, were estimated during a 1-year period after disease incidence reached a new steady state, with consequences of deaths and long-term pertussis sequelae projected over remaining lifetimes. Model outputs include: cases by severity, encephalopathy, deaths, costs (of vaccination and pertussis care) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) associated with each strategy. Results in terms of incremental cost/QALY gained are presented from payer and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses vary key parameters within plausible ranges.
For the US population, the intervention is expected to prevent >97,000 cases (>4,000 severe and >5,000 among infants) of pertussis annually at steady state. Additional vaccination costs are $4.7 million. Net cost savings, including vaccination costs, are $47.7 million (societal perspective) and $44.8 million (payer perspective). From both perspectives, the intervention strategy is dominant (less costly, and more effective by >3,000 QALYs) versus baseline. Results are robust to sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios.
Immunization of eligible adults aged ≥65, consistent with the current ACIP recommendation, is cost saving from both payer and societal perspectives.
PMCID: PMC3886978  PMID: 24416118
2.  Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Tdap in the Prevention of Pertussis in the Elderly 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(9):e67260.
Health benefits and costs of combined reduced-antigen-content tetanus, diphtheria, and pertussis (Tdap) immunization among adults ≥65 years have not been evaluated. In February 2012, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended expanding Tdap vaccination (one single dose) to include adults ≥65 years not previously vaccinated with Tdap. Our study estimated the health and economic outcomes of one-time replacement of the decennial tetanus and diphtheria (Td) booster with Tdap in the 10% of individuals aged 65 years assumed eligible each year compared with a baseline scenario of continued Td vaccination.
We constructed a model evaluating the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating a cohort of adults aged 65 with Tdap, by calculating pertussis cases averted due to direct vaccine effects only. Results are presented from societal and payer perspectives for a range of pertussis incidences (25–200 cases per 100,000), due to the uncertainty in estimating true annual incidence. Cases averted were accrued throughout the patient 's lifetime, and a probability tree used to estimate the clinical outcomes and costs (US$ 2010) for each case. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost to acute disease were calculated by multiplying cases of mild/moderate/severe pertussis by the associated health-state disutility; QALY losses due to death and long-term sequelae were also considered. Incremental costs and QALYs were summed over the cohort to derive incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Scenario analyses evaluated the effect of alternative plausible parameter estimates on results.
At incidence levels of 25, 100, 200 cases/100,000, vaccinating adults aged 65 years costs an additional $336,000, $63,000 and $17,000/QALY gained, respectively. Vaccination has a cost-effectiveness ratio less than $50,000/QALY if pertussis incidence is >116 cases/100,000 from societal and payer perspectives. Results were robust to scenario analyses.
Tdap immunization of adults aged 65 years according to current ACIP recommendations is a cost-effective health-care intervention at plausible incidence assumptions.
PMCID: PMC3760878  PMID: 24019859
3.  Impact of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in a pandemic similar to the 2009 H1N1 in the United States 
BMC Infectious Diseases  2013;13:229.
High rates of bacterial coinfection in autopsy data from the 2009 H1N1 influenza (“flu”) pandemic suggest synergies between flu and pneumococcal disease (PD) during pandemic conditions, and highlight the importance of interventions like the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic.
We used a decision-analytic model, estimated from published sources, to assess the impact of pediatric vaccination with PCV13 versus the 7-valent vaccine (PCV7) on PD incidence and mortality in a normal flu season (10% flu incidence) and in a pandemic similar to 2009-2010 H1N1 (20% flu incidence, mild virulence, high impact in children). Both direct and indirect (herd) effects against PD were considered. Effectiveness of PCV13 was extrapolated from observed PCV7 data, using assumptions of serotype prevalence and PCV13 protection against the 6 serotypes not in PCV7. To simulate 2009–2010 H1N1, autopsy data were used to estimate the overall proportion of flu deaths with bacterial coinfections. By assuming that increased risk of death during the pandemic occurred among those with comorbidity (using obesity as proxy) and bacterial coinfections primarily due to S. pneumoniae or S. aureus, we estimated the proportion co-infected among all (fatal and non-fatal) flu cases (7.6% co-infected with any organism; 2.2% with S. pneumoniae). PD incidence, mortality, and total healthcare costs were evaluated over a 1-year horizon.
In a normal flu season, compared to PCV7, PCV13 is expected to prevent an additional 13,400 invasive PD (IPD) cases, 399,000 pneumonia cases, and 2,900 deaths, leading to cost savings of $472 M. In a pandemic similar to 2009–2010 H1N1, PCV13 would prevent 22,800 IPD cases, 872,000 pneumonia cases, and 3,700 deaths, resulting in cost savings of $1.0 B compared to PCV7.
In a flu pandemic similar to the 2009–2010 H1N1, protection against the 6 additional serotypes in PCV13 would likely be effective in preventing pandemic-related PD cases, mortality, and associated costs.
PMCID: PMC3668995  PMID: 23687999
Pneumococcal disease; Influenza; H1N1 pandemic
4.  Modeling the impact of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotype catch-up program using United States claims data 
BMC Infectious Diseases  2012;12:175.
Analysis of US claims data from April 2010 to June 2011 estimated that 39% of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) catch-up eligible cohort would ever receive the catch-up vaccination; a previous analysis assumed 87%.
This updated figure was applied to a previously published 10-year Markov model while holding all other inputs constant.
Our model estimated that the catch-up program as currently implemented is estimated to prevent an additional 1.7 million cases of disease in children aged ≤59 months over a 10-year period, compared with routine PCV13 vaccination with no catch-up program.
Because 39% catch-up uptake is less than the level of completion of the 4-dose primary PCV13 series, vaccine-preventable cases of pneumococcal disease and related deaths could be decreased further with additional uptake of catch-up vaccination in the catch-up eligible cohort.
PMCID: PMC3426485  PMID: 22863074
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Catch-up vaccination; Pneumococcal; PCV13; 13-valent
5.  Public health and economic impact of vaccination with 7-valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV7) in the context of the annual influenza epidemic and a severe influenza pandemic 
Influenza pandemic outbreaks occurred in the US in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Historical evidence suggests that the majority of influenza-related deaths during the 1918 US pandemic were attributable to bacterial pneumococcal infections. The 2009 novel influenza A (H1N1) outbreak highlights the importance of interventions that may mitigate the impact of a pandemic.
A decision-analytic model was constructed to evaluate the impact of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) on pneumococcal disease incidence and mortality during a typical influenza season (13/100) and a severe influenza pandemic (30/100). Outcomes were compared for current PCV7 vaccination practices vs. no vaccination. The model was estimated using published sources and includes indirect (herd) protection of non-vaccinated persons.
The model predicts that PCV7 vaccination in the US is cost saving for a normal influenza season, reducing pneumococcal-related costs by $1.6 billion. In a severe influenza pandemic, vaccination would save $7.3 billion in costs and prevent 512,000 cases of IPD, 719,000 cases of pneumonia, 62,000 IPD deaths, and 47,000 pneumonia deaths; 84% of deaths are prevented due to indirect (herd) protection in the unvaccinated.
PCV7 vaccination is highly effective and cost saving in both normal and severe pandemic influenza seasons. Current infant vaccination practices may prevent >1 million pneumococcal-related deaths in a severe influenza pandemic, primarily due to herd protection.
PMCID: PMC2823614  PMID: 20092638
6.  Outcomes of thromboprophylaxis with enoxaparin vs. unfractionated heparin in medical inpatients 
Thrombosis Journal  2006;4:17.
Clinical trials have shown low-molecular weight heparin (LMWH) to be at least as safe and efficacious as unfractionated heparin (UFH) for preventing venous thromboembolism (VTE) in acutely-ill medical inpatients.
To compare clinical and economic outcomes among acutely-ill medical inpatients receiving the LMWH enoxaparin versus UFH prophylaxis in clinical practice.
Using a large, multi-hospital, US database, we identified persons aged ≥40 years hospitalized for ≥6 days for an acute medical condition (including circulatory disorders, respiratory disorders, infectious diseases, or neoplasms) from Q4 1999 to Q1 2002. From these patients, those who received thromboprophylaxis with either enoxaparin or UFH were identified. Surgical patients and those requiring or ineligible for anticoagulation were excluded. We compared the incidence of deep-vein thrombosis (DVT), pulmonary embolism (PE), and all VTE (i.e., DVT and/or PE). Secondary outcomes were occurrence of side-effects, length of hospital stay and total costs. RESULTS: 479 patients received enoxaparin prophylaxis and 2,837 received UFH. The incidence of VTE was 1.7% with enoxaparin prophylaxis versus 6.3% with UFH (RR = 0.26; p < 0.001). Occurrence of side effects, length of stay (10.00 days with enoxaparin vs. 10.26 days with UFH; p = 0.348) and total costs ($18,777 vs. $17,602; p = 0.463) were similar in the 2 groups.
We observed a 74% lower risk of VTE among patients receiving enoxaparin prophylaxis versus UFH prophylaxis. There was no significant difference in side effects or economic outcomes. These results provide evidence that the LMWH enoxaparin is more effective than UFH in reducing the risk of VTE in current clinical practice.
PMCID: PMC1624807  PMID: 17005045

Results 1-6 (6)