Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Background

Innovative models of care are required to cope with the ever-increasing number of patients on antiretroviral therapy in the most affected countries. This study, in Khayelitsha, South Africa, evaluates the effectiveness of a group-based model of care run predominantly by non-clinical staff in retaining patients in care and maintaining adherence.

Methods and Findings

Participation in “adherence clubs” was offered to adults who had been on ART for at least 18 months, had a current CD4 count >200 cells/ml and were virologically suppressed. Embedded in an ongoing cohort study, we compared loss to care and virologic rebound in patients receiving the intervention with patients attending routine nurse-led care from November 2007 to February 2011. We used inverse probability weighting to estimate the intention-to-treat effect of adherence club participation, adjusted for measured baseline and time-varying confounders. The principal outcome was the combination of death or loss to follow-up. The secondary outcome was virologic rebound in patients who were virologically suppressed at study entry. Of 2829 patients on ART for >18 months with a CD4 count above 200 cells/µl, 502 accepted club participation. At the end of the study, 97% of club patients remained in care compared with 85% of other patients. In adjusted analyses club participation reduced loss-to-care by 57% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.43, 95% CI = 0.21–0.91) and virologic rebound in patients who were initially suppressed by 67% (HR 0.33, 95% CI = 0.16–0.67).

Discussion

Patient adherence groups were found to be an effective model for improving retention and documented virologic suppression for stable patients in long term ART care. Out-of-clinic group-based models facilitated by non-clinical staff are a promising approach to assist in the long-term management of people on ART in high burden low or middle-income settings.

Background

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) options for young children co-infected with HIV and tuberculosis are limited in resource-poor settings due to limited data on the use of efavirenz (EFV). Using available pharmacokinetic data, an EFV dosing schedule was developed for young co-infected children and implemented as the standard of care at Macha Hospital in Southern Province, Zambia. Treatment outcomes inchildren younger than 3 years of age or weighing less than 10 kg receiving either EFV-based ART plus anti-tuberculous treatment or nevirapine-based (NVP) ART were compared.

Methods

Treatment outcomes were measured in a cohort of HIV-infected children seeking care at Macha Hospital in rural Zambia from 2007 to 2010. Informationon the diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis was abstracted from medical records.

Results

Forty-five children treated for tuberculosis initiated an EFV-based regimen and 69 children initiated a NVP-based regimen, 7 of whom also were treated for tuberculosis. Children receiving both regimens were comparable in age, but children receiving EFV started ART with a lower CD4+ T-cell percentage and weight-for-age z-score. Children receiving EFV experienced increases in both CD4+ T-cell percentage and weight-for-age z-score during follow-up, such that levels were comparable to children receiving NVP after two years of ART. Cumulative survival after 12 months of ART did not differ between groups (NVP:87%;EFV:80%;p = 0.25). Eleven children experienced virologic failure during follow-up.The adjusted hazard ratio of virologic failure comparing EFV to NVP was 0.25 (95% CI:0.05,1.24) and 0.13 (95% CI:0.03,0.62) using thresholds of 5000 and 400 copies/mL, respectively.Five children receiving EFV were reported to have had convulsions after ART initiation compared to only one child receiving NVP (p = 0.04).

Conclusions

Despite poorer health at ART initiation, children treated for tuberculosis and receiving EFV-based regimens showed significant improvements comparable to children receiving NVP-based regimens. EFV-based regimens should be considered for young HIV-infected children co-infected with tuberculosis in resource-limited settings.

Background

Studies have shown that early ART initiation in TB/HIV co-infected patients lowers mortality. One way to implement earlier ART commencement could be through integration of TB and HIV services, a more efficient model of care than separate, vertical programs. We present a model of full TB/HIV integration and estimate its effect on time to initiation of ART.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We retrospectively reviewed TB registers and clinical notes of 209 TB/HIV co-infected adults with a CD4 count <250 cells/µl and registered for TB treatment at one primary care clinic in a South African township between June 2008 and May 2009. Using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analysis, we compared time between initiation of TB treatment and ART for the periods before and after full, “one-stop shop” integration of TB and HIV services (in December 2009). Potential confounders were determined a priori through directed acyclic graphs. Robustness of assumptions was investigated by sensitivity analyses. The analysis included 188 patients (100 pre- and 88 post-integration), yielding 56 person-years of observation. Baseline characteristics of the two groups were similar. Median time to ART initiation decreased from 147 days (95% confidence interval [CI] 85–188) before integration of services to 75 days (95% CI 52–119) post-integration. In adjusted analyses, patients attending the clinic post-integration were 1.60 times (95% CI 1.11–2.29) more likely to have started ART relative to the pre-integration period. Sensitivity analyses supported these findings.

Conclusions/Significance

Full TB/HIV care integration is feasible and led to a 60% increased chance of co-infected patients starting ART, while reducing time to ART initiation by an average of 72 days. Although these estimates should be confirmed through larger studies, they suggest that scale-up of full TB/HIV service integration in high TB/HIV prevalence settings may shorten time to ART initiation, which might reduce excess mortality and morbidity.

Background

In most of the world, microbiologic diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) is limited to microscopy. Recent guidelines recommend culture-based diagnosis where feasible.

Methods

In order to evaluate the relative and absolute incremental diagnostic yield of culture-based diagnosis in a high-incidence community in Cape Town, South Africa, subjects evaluated for suspected TB had their samples processed for microscopy and culture over a 21 month period.

Results

For 2537 suspect episodes with 2 smears and 2 cultures done, 20.0% (508) had at least one positive smear and 29.9% (760) had at least one positive culture. One culture yielded 1.8 times more cases as 1 smear (relative yield), or an increase of 12.0% (absolute yield). Based on the latter value, the number of cultures needed to diagnose (NND) one extra case of TB was 8, compared to 19 if second specimens were submitted for microscopy.

Conclusion

In a high-burden setting, the introduction of culture can markedly increase TB diagnosis over microscopy. The concept of number needed to diagnose can help in comparing incremental yield of diagnosis methods. Although new promising diagnostic molecular methods are being implemented, TB culture is still the gold standard.

Summary

Background

Robust evidence of the effectiveness of task shifting of antiretroviral therapy (ART) from doctors to other health workers is scarce. We aimed to assess the effects on mortality, viral suppression, and other health outcomes and quality indicators of the Streamlining Tasks and Roles to Expand Treatment and Care for HIV (STRETCH) programme, which provides educational outreach training of nurses to initiate and represcribe ART, and to decentralise care.

Methods

We undertook a pragmatic, parallel, cluster-randomised trial in South Africa between Jan 28, 2008, and June 30, 2010. We randomly assigned 31 primary-care ART clinics to implement the STRETCH programme (intervention group) or to continue with standard care (control group). The ratio of randomisation depended on how many clinics were in each of nine strata. Two cohorts were enrolled: eligible patients in cohort 1 were adults (aged ≥16 years) with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less who were not receiving ART; those in cohort 2 were adults who had already received ART for at least 6 months and were being treated at enrolment. The primary outcome in cohort 1 was time to death (superiority analysis). The primary outcome in cohort 2 was the proportion with undetectable viral loads (<400 copies per mL) 12 months after enrolment (equivalence analysis, prespecified difference <6%). Patients and clinicians could not be masked to group assignment. The interim analysis was blind, but data analysts were not masked after the database was locked for final analysis. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN46836853.

Findings

5390 patients in cohort 1 and 3029 in cohort 2 were in the intervention group, and 3862 in cohort 1 and 3202 in cohort 2 were in the control group. Median follow-up was 16·3 months (IQR 12·2–18·0) in cohort 1 and 18·0 months (18·0–18·0) in cohort 2. In cohort 1, 997 (20%) of 4943 patients analysed in the intervention group and 747 (19%) of 3862 in the control group with known vital status at the end of the trial had died. Time to death did not differ (hazard ratio [HR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·76–1·15). In a preplanned subgroup analysis of patients with baseline CD4 counts of 201–350 cells per μL, mortality was slightly lower in the intervention group than in the control group (0·73, 0·54–1.00; p=0·052), but it did not differ between groups in patients with baseline CD4 of 200 cells per μL or less (0·94, 0·76–1·15; p=0·577). In cohort 2, viral load suppression 12 months after enrolment was equivalent in intervention (2156 [71%] of 3029 patients) and control groups (2230 [70%] of 3202; risk difference 1·1%, 95% CI −2·4 to 4·6).

Interpretation

Expansion of primary-care nurses' roles to include ART initiation and represcription can be done safely, and improve health outcomes and quality of care, but might not reduce time to ART or mortality.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, Development Cooperation Ireland, and Canadian International Development Agency.

Morna Cornell and colleagues investigate differences in mortality for HIV-positive men and women on antiretroviral therapy in South Africa.

Background

Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART.

Methods and Findings

Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population.

Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22–1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located.

Conclusions

HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Editors' Summary

Background

About 34 million people (most living in low- and middle-income countries) are currently infected with HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. HIV destroys CD4 lymphocytes and other immune system cells, leaving infected individuals susceptible to other infections. Early in the AIDS epidemic, most HIV-infected people died within 10 years of becoming infected. Then, in 1996, antiretroviral therapy (ART)—cocktails of drugs that keep HIV in check—became available. For people living in affluent countries, HIV/AIDS became a chronic condition. However, ART was expensive and, for people living in poorer countries, HIV/AIDS remained a fatal illness. In 2003, this situation was declared a global emergency, and governments and international agencies began to implement plans to increase ART coverage in resource-limited countries. Since then, ART programs in these countries have grown rapidly. In South Africa, for example, about 52% of the 3.14 million adults in need of ART were receiving an ART regimen recommended by the World Health Organization by the end of 2010.

Why Was This Study Done?

The outcomes of ART programs in resource-limited countries need to be evaluated thoroughly so that these programs can be optimized. One area of concern to ART providers is that of gender differences in survival among patients receiving treatment. In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, men are more likely to die than women while receiving ART. This gender difference in mortality may arise because men initiating ART in many African ART programs have more advanced HIV disease than women (early ART initiation is associated with better outcomes than late initiation) or because men are more likely to be lost to follow-up than women (failure to continue treatment is associated with death). Other possible explanations for gender differentials in mortality on ART include gender differences in immunologic and virologic responses to treatment (increased numbers of immune system cells and reduced amounts of virus in the blood, respectively). In this multicenter cohort study, the researchers examine the size of, and risk factors for, gender differences in mortality on ART in South Africa by examining data collected from adults starting ART at International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS South Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration sites.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

The researchers analyzed data collected from 46,201 ART-naïve adults who started ART between 2002 and 2009 in eight IeDEA-SA ART programs. At ART initiation, men had a lower CD4 count on average and were more likely to have advanced HIV disease than women. During the study, after allowing for factors likely to affect mortality such as HIV disease stage at initiation, men on ART had a 31% higher risk of dying than women. Men were more likely to be lost to follow-up than women, but men and women who were lost to follow-up were equally likely to die. Women had a slightly better immunological response to ART than men but virologic suppression was similar in both genders. Importantly, in analyses of mortality limited to individuals who were virologically suppressed at 12 months and to patients who had a good immunological response to ART, men still had a higher risk of death than women. However, the gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than the gender differences in age-standardized mortality in the HIV-negative South African population.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These analyses show that among South African patients initiating ART between 2002 and 2009, men were more likely to die than women but that this gender difference in mortality on ART cannot be completely explained by gender differences in baseline characteristics, loss to follow-up, or virologic and/or immunologic responses. Instead, the observed gender differences in mortality can best be explained by background gender differences in mortality in the whole South African population. Because substantial amounts of data were missing in this study (for example, HIV disease stage was not available for all the patients), these findings need to be interpreted cautiously. Moreover, similar studies need to be done in other settings to investigate whether they are generalizable to the South African national ART program and to other countries. If confirmed, however, these findings suggest that the root causes of gender differences in mortality on ART may be unrelated to HIV/AIDS or to the characteristics of ART programs.

Additional Information

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001304.

Information is available from the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on HIV infection and AIDS

Information on the treatment of HIV/AIDS in South Africa is available from the Southern African HIV Clinicians Society

NAM/aidsmap provides basic information about HIV/AIDS and summaries of recent research findings on HIV care and treatment

Information is available from Avert, an international AIDS charity on many aspects of HIV/AIDS, including information on HIV/AIDS treatment and care, and on HIV/AIDS in South Africa (in English and Spanish)

WHO provides information about universal access to AIDS treatment (in several languages); its 2010 ART guidelines can be downloaded

Information about the IeDEA-SA collaboration is available

The Treatment Action Campaign provides information on antiretroviral therapy and South African HIV statistics

Patient stories about living with HIV/AIDS are available through Avert; the nonprofit website Healthtalkonline also provides personal stories about living with HIV, including stories about taking anti-HIV drugs and the challenges of anti-HIV drugs

Background

Changes in CD4 cell counts are poorly documented in individuals with low or moderate-level viremia while on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in resource-limited settings. We assessed the impact of on-going HIV-RNA replication on CD4 cell count slopes in patients treated with a first-line combination ART.

Method

Naïve patients on a first-line ART regimen with at least two measures of HIV-RNA available after ART initiation were included in the study. The relationships between mean CD4 cell count change and HIV-RNA at 6 and 12 months after ART initiation (M6 and M12) were assessed by linear mixed models adjusted for gender, age, clinical stage and year of starting ART.

Results

3,338 patients were included (14 cohorts, 64% female) and the group had the following characteristics: a median follow-up time of 1.6 years, a median age of 34 years, and a median CD4 cell count at ART initiation of 107 cells/μL. All patients with suppressed HIV-RNA at M12 had a continuous increase in CD4 cell count up to 18 months after treatment initiation. By contrast, any degree of HIV-RNA replication both at M6 and M12 was associated with a flat or a decreasing CD4 cell count slope. Multivariable analysis using HIV-RNA thresholds of 10,000 and 5,000 copies confirmed the significant effect of HIV-RNA on CD4 cell counts both at M6 and M12.

Conclusion

In routinely monitored patients on an NNRTI-based first-line ART, on-going low-level HIV-RNA replication was associated with a poor immune outcome in patients who had detectable levels of the virus after one year of ART.

Background

In highly populated African urban areas where access to clean water is a challenge, water source contamination is one of the most cited risk factors in a cholera epidemic. During the rainy season, where there is either no sewage disposal or working sewer system, runoff of rains follows the slopes and gets into the lower parts of towns where shallow wells could easily become contaminated by excretes. In cholera endemic areas, spatial information about topographical elevation could help to guide preventive interventions. This study aims to analyze the association between topographic elevation and the distribution of cholera cases in Harare during the cholera epidemic in 2008 and 2009.

Methods

We developed an ecological study using secondary data. First, we described attack rates by suburb and then calculated rate ratios using whole Harare as reference. We illustrated the average elevation and cholera cases by suburbs using geographical information. Finally, we estimated a generalized linear mixed model (under the assumption of a Poisson distribution) with an Empirical Bayesian approach to model the relation between the risk of cholera and the elevation in meters in Harare. We used a random intercept to allow for spatial correlation of neighboring suburbs.

Results

This study identifies a spatial pattern of the distribution of cholera cases in the Harare epidemic, characterized by a lower cholera risk in the highest elevation suburbs of Harare. The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each 100 meters of increase in the topographical elevation, the cholera risk was 30% lower with a rate ratio of 0.70 (95% confidence interval=0.66-0.76). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the risk reduction with an overall estimate of the rate ratio between 20% and 40%.

Conclusion

This study highlights the importance of considering topographical elevation as a geographical and environmental risk factor in order to plan cholera preventive activities linked with water and sanitation in endemic areas. Furthermore, elevation information, among other risk factors, could help to spatially orientate cholera control interventions during an epidemic.

SUMMARY

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a common diagnosis in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Objective

To describe TB-related practices in ART programmes in lower-income countries and identify risk factors for TB in the first year of ART.

Methods

Programme characteristics were assessed by standardized electronic questionnaire. Patient data from 2003-2008 were analyzed and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) calculated using Poisson regression models.

Results

Fifteen ART programmes in 12 countries in Africa, South America and Asia were included. Chest X-ray, sputum microscopy and culture were available free of charge in 13 (86.7%), 14 (93.3%) and eight (53.3%) programmes, respectively. Eight sites (53.3%) used directly observed therapy and five (33.3%) routinely administered isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT). A total of 19,413 patients aged ≥16 years contributed 13,227 person-years of follow-up; 1,081 new TB events were diagnosed. Risk factors included CD4 cell count (adjusted IRR comparing >350 cells/μL with <25 cells/μL 0.46, 95% CI 0.33-0.64, P<0.0001), gender (adjusted IRR comparing women with men 0.77, 0.68-0.88, P=0.0001) and use of IPT (IRR 0.24, 95% CI 0.19-0.31, p<0.0001).

Conclusions

Diagnostic capacity and practices vary widely across ART programmes. IPT prevented TB but was used in few programmes. More efforts are needed to reduce the burden of TB in HIV co-infected patients in lower income countries.

Background

The clinical and scientific usage of patient-reported outcome measures is increasing in the health services. Often paper forms are used. Manual double entry of data is defined as the definitive gold standard for transferring data to an electronic format, but the process is laborious. Automated forms processing may be an alternative, but further validation is warranted.

Methods

200 patients were randomly selected from a cohort of 5777 patients who had previously answered two different questionnaires. The questionnaires were scanned using an automated forms processing technique, as well as processed by single and double manual data entry, using the EpiData Entry data entry program. The main outcome measure was the proportion of correctly entered numbers at question, form and study level.

Results

Manual double-key data entry (error proportion per 1000 fields = 0.046 (95% CI: 0.001–0.258)) performed better than single-key data entry (error proportion per 1000 fields = 0.370 (95% CI: 0.160–0.729), (p = 0.020)). There was no statistical difference between Optical Mark Recognition (error proportion per 1000 fields = 0.046 (95% CI: 0.001–0.258)) and double-key data entry (p = 1.000). With the Intelligent Character Recognition method, there was no statistical difference compared to single-key data entry (error proportion per 1000 fields = 6.734 (95% CI: 0.817–24.113), (p = 0.656)), as well as double-key data entry (error proportion per 1000 fields = 3.367 (95% CI: 0.085–18.616)), (p = 0.319)).

Conclusions

Automated forms processing is a valid alternative to double manual data entry for highly structured forms containing only check boxes, numerical codes and no dates. Automated forms processing can be superior to single manual data entry through a data entry program, depending on the method chosen.

Background

With expanding pediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) access, children will begin to experience treatment failure and require second-line therapy. We evaluated the probability and determinants of virologic failure and switching in children in South Africa.

Methods

Pooled analysis of routine individual data from children who initiated ART in 7 South African treatment programs with 6-monthly viral load and CD4 monitoring produced Kaplan-Meier estimates of probability of virologic failure (two consecutive unsuppressed viral loads with the second being >1,000 copies/ml, after ≥24 weeks of therapy) and switch to second-line. Cox proportional hazards models stratified by program were used to determine predictors of these outcomes.

Results

The 3-year probability of virologic failure among 5485 children was 19.3% (95%CI: 17.6–21.1). Use of nevirapine or ritonavir alone in the initial regimen (compared to efavirenz), and exposure to prevention of mother to child transmission regimens were independently associated with failure (adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI): 1.77(1.11–2.83), 2.39(1.57–3.64) and 1.40(1.02–1.92) respectively). Among 252 children with ≥1 year follow-up after failure, 38% were switched to second-line. Median (IQR) months between failure and switch was 5.7(2.9–11.0).

Conclusion

Triple ART based on nevirapine or ritonavir as a single protease inhibitor appears to be associated with a higher risk of virologic failure. A low proportion of virologically failing children were switched.

Background

The objective was to examine the short-term risk and predictors of anaemia following initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in HIV-infected patients from the Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Central Africa, Asian-Pacific, and Caribbean and Central and South America regions of the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration.

Methods

Anaemia was defined as haemoglobin of < 10 g/dL. Patients were included if they started cART with three or more drugs, had prior haemoglobin of > = 10 g/dL, and had one or more follow-up haemoglobin tests. Factors associated with anaemia up to 12 months were examined using Cox proportional hazards models and stratified by IeDEA region.

Results

Between 1998 and 2008, 19,947 patients initiated cART with baseline and follow-up haemoglobin tests (7358, 7289, 2853, 471, 1550 and 426 in the Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Central Africa, Asian-Pacific, and Caribbean and Central and South America regions, respectively). At initiation, anaemia was found in 45% of Western Africa patients, 29% of Eastern Africa patients, 21% of Southern Africa patients, 36% of Central Africa patients, 15% of patients in Asian-Pacific and 14% of patients in Caribbean and Central and South America. Among patients with haemoglobin of > = 10 g/dL at baseline (13,445), the risks of anaemia were 18.2, 6.6, 9.7, 22.9, 11.8 and 19.5 per 100 person-years in the Western Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, Central Africa, Asian, and Caribbean and Central and South America regions, respectively. Factors associated with anaemia were female sex, low baseline haemoglobin level, low baseline CD4 count, more advanced disease stage, and initial cART containing zidovudine.

Conclusions

In data from 34 cohorts of HIV-infected patients from sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South America, and Asia, the risk of anaemia within 12 months of initiating cART was moderate. Routine haemoglobin monitoring was recommended in patients at risk of developing anaemia following cART initiation.

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland.

Methods and Findings

HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up.

Conclusions

In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Background

Prognostic models have been developed for HIV-1 infected patients who start combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in high-income countries, but not for patients treated in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We included 10,331 adult patients who started ART between 2004 and 2007 in ART scale-up programmes in Côte d’Ivoire, South Africa and Malawi. Data were analysed by intention-to-continue-treatment, ignoring treatment changes and interruptions. We used Weibull survival models to construct two prognostic models: one that included baseline CD4 count and one that did not, since in many African settings CD4 count is not routinely measured.

Findings

During the first year after starting ART, 912 (8.2%) patients died. Baseline CD4 cell count (adjusted hazard ratio 0.21 [95% CI 0.17–0.27] comparing ≥200 with <25 cells/μL), WHO clinical stage (3.45 [2.43–4.90] comparing stages III/IV with I/II), body weight (0.23 [0.18–0.30] comparing ≥60 with <45kg) and anaemia (0.27 [0.20–0.36] comparing none with severe) were strongly associated with mortality. Other independent risk factors were low total lymphocyte count, advanced age and male sex. The CD4 model included CD4 count, clinical stage, body weight, age and sex (160 risk strata). In the alternative model CD4 count was replaced by total lymphocyte count and degree of anaemia (288 risk strata). With the CD4 model the probability of death ranged from 0.9% (95% CI 0.6–1.4) in patients in the lowest risk stratum to 53% (44–62) in patients in the highest risk stratum. The corresponding probabilities for the total lymphocyte/haemoglobin model were 0.9% (0.5–1.4) and 60% (48–71).

Interpretation

Prognostic models based on the CD4 cell count, or total lymphocytes and haemoglobin provide similarly strong discrimination in predicting early mortality in patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa. These models are useful for counselling patients, planning health services and predicting outcomes at the population level.

Objective

To describe the spectrum of central nervous system (CNS) disease during the first year of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and to determine the contribution of neurological immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS).

Design

A prospective observational cohort study conducted over a 12-month period at a public sector referral hospital in South Africa.

Methods

HIV seropositive patients who developed new or recurrent neurological or psychiatric symptom(s) or sign(s) within the first year of starting ART were enrolled. We used the number of patients starting ART in the referral area in the preceding year as the denominator to calculate the incidence of referral for neurological deterioration. Patients with delirium and peripheral neuropathy were excluded. Outcome at six months was recorded.

Results

Seventy-five patients were enrolled. The median nadir CD4+ count was 64 cells/μL. 59% of patients were receiving antituberculosis treatment. The incidence of referral for CNS deterioration in the first year of ART was 23.3 cases (95% CI, 18.3–29.2) per 1000 patient years at risk. CNS tuberculosis (n=27, 36%), cryptococcal meningitis (n=18, 24%), intracerebral space occupying lesions (other than tuberculoma) (n=10, 13%) and psychosis (n=9, 12%) were the most frequent diagnoses. Paradoxical neurological IRIS was diagnosed in 21 patients (28%), related to tuberculosis in 16 and cryptococcosis in 5. At 6 months, 23% of patients had died and 20% were lost to follow-up.

Conclusion

Opportunistic infections, notably tuberculosis and cryptococcosis, were the most frequent causes for neurological deterioration after starting ART. Neurological IRIS occurred in over a quarter of patients.

Background

Loss to follow-up (LTF) challenges the reporting of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes, since it encompasses patients alive but lost to programme and deaths misclassified as LTF. We describe LTF before and after correction for mortality in a primary care ART programme with linkages to the national vital registration system.

Methods and Findings

We included 6411 patients enrolled on ART between March 2001 and June 2007. Patients LTF with available civil identification numbers were matched with the national vital registration system to ascertain vital status. Corrected mortality and true LTF were determined by weighting these patients to represent all patients LTF. We used Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox regression to describe LTF, mortality among those LTF, and true LTF. Of 627 patients LTF, 85 (28.8%) had died within 3 months after their last clinic visits. Respective estimates of LTF before and after correction for mortality were 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.2–7.6) and 4.3% (95% CI 3.5–5.3) at one year on ART, and 23.9% (95% CI 21.0–27.2) and 19.7% (95% CI 16.1–23.7) at 5 years. After correction for mortality, the hazard of LTF was reversed from decreasing to increasing with time on ART. Younger age, higher baseline CD4 count, pregnancy and increasing calendar year were associated with higher true LTF. Mortality of patients LTF at 1, 12 and 24 months after their last visits was respectively 23.1%, 30.9% and 43.8%; 78.0% of deaths occurred during the first 3 months after last visit and 45.0% in patients on ART for 0 to 3 months.

Conclusions

Mortality of patients LTF was high and occurred early after last clinic visit, especially in patients recently started on ART. Correction for these misclassified deaths revealed that the risk of true LTF increased over time. Research targeting groups at higher risk of LTF (youth, pregnant women and patients with higher CD4 counts) is needed.

Summary

Objective

To assess the outcome of patients who experienced treatment failure with anti-retrovirals in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Analysis of 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. World Health Organization (WHO) criteria were used to define treatment failure. All ART-naïve patients aged >16 years who started with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based regimen and had at least six months of follow-up were eligible. For each patient who switched to a second-line regimen, 10 matched patients who remained on a non-failing first-line regimen were selected. Time was measured from the time of switching, from the corresponding time in matched patients, or from the time of treatment failure in patients who remained on a failing regimen. Mortality was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier curves and random-effects Cox models.

Results

Of 16,591 adult patients starting ART, 382 patients (2.3%) switched to a second-line regimen. Another 323 patients (1.9%) did not switch despite developing immunological or virological failure. Cumulative mortality at one year was 4.2% (95% CI 2.2-7.8%) in patients who switched to a second-line regimen and 11.7% (7.3%-18.5%) in patients who remained on a failing first-line regimen, compared to 2.2% (1.6-3.0%) in patients on a non-failing first-line regimen (p<0.0001). Differences in mortality were not explained by nadir CD4 cell count, age or differential loss to follow-up.

Conclusions

Many patients who meet criteria for treatment failure do not switch to a second-line regimen and die. There is an urgent need to clarify the reasons why in sub-Saharan Africa many patients remain on failing first-line ART.

Background

Evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult because many patients are lost to follow-up. Outcomes in these patients are generally unknown but studies tracing patients have shown mortality to be high. We adjusted programme-level mortality in the first year of antiretroviral treatment (ART) for excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up.

Methods and Findings

Treatment-naïve patients starting combination ART in five programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Malawi and South Africa were eligible. Patients whose last visit was at least nine months before the closure of the database were considered lost to follow-up. We filled missing survival times in these patients by multiple imputation, using estimates of mortality from studies that traced patients lost to follow-up. Data were analyzed using Weibull models, adjusting for age, sex, ART regimen, CD4 cell count, clinical stage and treatment programme. A total of 15,915 HIV-infected patients (median CD4 cell count 110 cells/µL, median age 35 years, 68% female) were included; 1,001 (6.3%) were known to have died and 1,285 (14.3%) were lost to follow-up in the first year of ART. Crude estimates of mortality at one year ranged from 5.7% (95% CI 4.9–6.5%) to 10.9% (9.6–12.4%) across the five programmes. Estimated mortality hazard ratios comparing patients lost to follow-up with those remaining in care ranged from 6 to 23. Adjusted estimates based on these hazard ratios ranged from 10.2% (8.9–11.6%) to 16.9% (15.0–19.1%), with relative increases in mortality ranging from 27% to 73% across programmes.

Conclusions

Naïve survival analysis ignoring excess mortality in patients lost to follow-up may greatly underestimate overall mortality, and bias ART programme evaluations. Adjusted mortality estimates can be obtained based on excess mortality rates in patients lost to follow-up.

Knowledge of the experience and outcomes of current paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes in sub-Saharan Africa can inform new programmes in the region as well as enhance existing ones. This is urgently needed to facilitate the scale-up of treatment, which is needed to address the burden of paediatric HIV cases on the continent. We reviewed the characteristics and outcomes of programmes with clinical paediatric ART studies published prior to 1 January 2008. The outcomes of the studies were comparable to similar ones from developed countries; however, the duration of follow-up was relatively limited in almost all the studies reviewed. One-year survival probability was between 84% and 91%, and considerable improvement in the clinical, immunologic and viral status of the paediatric patients was generally recorded. Loss to follow-up was less than 10% in all but two studies. Adherence to treatment was good and few adverse events were reported. This is despite the fact that many programmes were subject to enormous constraints in terms of health services, and despite widespread use of adult fixed-dose combinations for paediatric patients, including young infants. While the majority of children commencing ART were severely ill, most children were old (median age > 5 years for almost all studies) with relatively few infants and young children (age < 2 years) receiving treatment. This is in contrast to knowledge of rapid disease progression in the majority of HIV-infected infants and despite the World Health Organization’s recent recommendations to commence ART in all HIV-infected infants less than one year old. There is an urgent need to address barriers to ART for infants. Studies of the outcomes of programmes treating infants as well as those with longer-term follow-up are also needed.

Background

In high-income countries viral load (VL) is routinely measured to detect failure of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and guide switching to second-line ART. VL monitoring is not generally available in resource-limited settings. We examined switching from non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-based first-line regimens to protease inhibitor (PI)-based regimens in Africa, South America and Asia.

Design and methods

Multi-cohort study of 17 ART programmes. All sites monitored CD4 counts and had access to second-line ART, 10 sites monitored VL. We compared times to switching, CD4 counts at switching and obtained adjusted hazard ratios for switching (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) from random-effects Weibull models.

Results

A total of 20,113 patients, including 6,369 (31.7%) patients from 10 programmes with access to VL monitoring were analysed; 576 patients (2.9%) switched. Low CD4 counts at ART initiation were associated with switching in all programmes. Median time to switching was 16.3 months (interquartile range [IQR] 10.1–26.6) in programmes with VL and 21.8 months (IQR 14.0–21.8) in programmes without VL monitoring (p<0.001). Median CD4 cell counts at switching were 161 cells/μl (IQR 77–265) and 102 cells/μl (44–181), respectively (p<0.001). Switching was more common in programmes with VL monitoring during months 7–18 after starting ART (aHR 1.38; 95% CI 0.97–1.98), similar during months 19–30 (aHR 0.97; 0.58–1.60) and less common during months 31–42 (aHR 0.29; 0.11–0.79).

Conclusions

In resource-limited settings switching to second-line regimens tends to occur earlier and at higher CD4 cell counts in ART programmes with VL monitoring compared to programmes without VL monitoring.

Objectives

To introduce the combined South African cohorts of the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS Southern Africa (IeDEA-SA) collaboration as reflecting the South African national antiretroviral treatment (ART) programme; to characterise patients accessing these services; and to describe changes in services and patients from 2003 to 2007.

Design and setting

Multi-cohort study of 11 ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape, Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.

Subjects

Adults and children (<16 years old) who initiated ART with ≥3 antiretroviral drugs before 2008.

Results

Most sites were offering free treatment to adults and children in the public sector, ranging from 264 to 17 835 patients per site. Among 45 383 adults and 6 198 children combined, median age (interquartile range) was 35.0 years (29.8 – 41.4) and 42.5 months (14.7 – 82.5), respectively. Of adults, 68% were female. The median CD4 cell count was 102 cells/µl (44 – 164) and was lower among males than females (86, 34 – 150 v. 110, 50 – 169, p<0.001). Median CD4% among children was 12% (7 – 17.7). Between 2003 and 2007, enrolment increased 11-fold in adults and 3-fold in children. Median CD4 count at enrolment increased for all adults (67 – 111 cells/µl, p<0.001) and for those in stage IV (39 – 89 cells/µl, p<0.001). Among children <5 years, baseline CD4% increased over time (11.5 – 16.0%, p<0.001).

Conclusions

IeDEA-SA provides a unique opportunity to report on the national ART programme. The study describes dramatically increased enrolment over time. Late diagnosis and ART initiation, especially of men and children, need attention. Investment in sentinel sites will ensure good individual-level data while freeing most sites to continue with simplified reporting.

Objectives

To assess paediatric antiretroviral treatment (ART) outcomes and their associations from a collaborative cohort representing 20% of the South African national treatment programme.

Design and setting

Multi-cohort study of 7 public sector paediatric ART programmes in Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal provinces.

Subjects

ART-naïve children (≤16 years) who commenced treatment with ≥3 antiretroviral drugs before March 2008.

Outcome measures

Time to death or loss to follow-up were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Associations between baseline characteristics and mortality were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models stratified by site. Immune status, virological suppression and growth were described in relation to duration of ART.

Results

The median (interquartile range) age of 6 078 children with 9 368 child-years of follow-up was 43 (15 - 83) months, with 29% being <18 months. Most were severely ill at ART initiation. More than 75% of children were appropriately monitored at 6-monthly intervals with viral load suppression (<400 copies/ml) being 80% or above throughout 36 months of treatment. Mortality and retention in care at 3 years were 7.7% (95% confidence interval 7.0 - 8.6%) and 81.4% (80.1 -82.6%), respectively. Together with young age, all markers of disease severity (low weight-for-age z-score, high viral load, severe immune suppression, stage 3/4 disease and anaemia) were independently associated with mortality.

Conclusions

Dramatic clinical benefit for children accessing the national ART programme is demonstrated. Higher mortality in infants and those with advanced disease highlights the need for early diagnosis of HIV infection and commencement of ART.

Background

AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma is an important, life-threatening opportunistic infection among people living with HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings. In western countries, the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) and new chemotherapeutic agents has resulted in decreased incidence and improved prognosis of AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. In African cohorts, however, mortality remains high. In this study, we describe disease characteristics and risk factors for mortality in a public sector HIV programme in South Africa.

Methods

We analysed data from an observational cohort study of HIV-infected adults with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma, enrolled between May 2001 and January 2007 in three primary care clinics. Paper records from primary care and tertiary hospital oncology clinics were reviewed to determine the site of Kaposi's sarcoma lesions, immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome stage, and treatment. Baseline characteristics, cART use and survival outcomes were extracted from an electronic database maintained for routine monitoring and evaluation. Cox regression was used to model associations with mortality.

Results

Of 6292 patients, 215 (3.4%) had AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. Lesions were most commonly oral (65%) and on the lower extremities (56%). One quarter of patients did not receive cART. The mortality and lost-to-follow-up rates were, respectively, 25 (95% CI 19-32) and eight (95% CI 5-13) per 100 person years for patients who received cART, and 70 (95% CI 42-117) and 119 (80-176) per 100 person years for patients who did not receive cART. Advanced T stage (adjusted HR, AHR = 5.3, p < 0.001), advanced S stage (AHR = 5.1, p = 0.008), and absence of chemotherapy (AHR = 2.4, p = 0.012) were associated with mortality.

Patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma presented with advanced disease and high rates of mortality and loss to follow up. Risk factors for mortality included advanced Kaposi's sarcoma disease and lack of chemotherapy use. Contributing factors to the high mortality for patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma likely included late diagnosis of HIV disease, late accessibility to cART, and sub-optimal treatment of advanced Kaposi's sarcoma.

Conclusions

These findings confirm the importance of early access to both cART and chemotherapy for patients with AIDS-associated Kaposi's sarcoma. Early diagnosis and improved treatment protocols in resource-poor settings are essential.