Charles Wolfe and colleagues collected data from the South London Stroke Register
on 3,373 first strokes registered between 1995 and 2006 and showed that between
20% and 30% of survivors have poor outcomes up to 10 years after
stroke.
Background
Although stroke is acknowledged as a long-term condition, population
estimates of outcomes longer term are lacking. Such estimates would be
useful for planning health services and developing research that might
ultimately improve outcomes. This burden of disease study provides
population-based estimates of outcomes with a focus on disability,
cognition, and psychological outcomes up to 10 y after initial stroke event
in a multi-ethnic European population.
Methods and Findings
Data were collected from the population-based South London Stroke Register, a
prospective population-based register documenting all first in a lifetime
strokes since 1 January 1995 in a multi-ethnic inner city population. The
outcomes assessed are reported as estimates of need and included disability
(Barthel Index <15), inactivity (Frenchay Activities Index <15),
cognitive impairment (Abbreviated Mental Test < 8 or Mini-Mental State
Exam <24), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale
>10), and mental and physical domain scores of the Medical Outcomes Study
12-item short form (SF-12) health survey. Estimates were stratified by age,
gender, and ethnicity, and age-adjusted using the standard European
population. Plots of outcome estimates over time were constructed to examine
temporal trends and sociodemographic differences. Between 1995 and 2006,
3,373 first-ever strokes were registered: 20%–30% of
survivors had a poor outcome over 10 y of follow-up. The highest rate of
disability was observed 7 d after stroke and remained at around 110 per
1,000 stroke survivors from 3 mo to 10 y. Rates of inactivity and cognitive
impairment both declined up to 1 y (280/1,000 and 180/1,000 survivors,
respectively); thereafter rates of inactivity remained stable till year
eight, then increased, whereas rates of cognitive impairment fluctuated till
year eight, then increased. Anxiety and depression showed some fluctuation
over time, with a rate of 350 and 310 per 1,000 stroke survivors,
respectively. SF-12 scores showed little variation from 3 mo to 10 y after
stroke. Inactivity was higher in males at all time points, and in white
compared to black stroke survivors, although black survivors reported better
outcomes in the SF-12 physical domain. No other major differences were
observed by gender or ethnicity. Increased age was associated with higher
rates of disability, inactivity, and cognitive impairment.
Conclusions
Between 20% and 30% of stroke survivors have a poor range of
outcomes up to 10 y after stroke. Such epidemiological data demonstrate the
sociodemographic groups that are most affected longer term and should be
used to develop longer term management strategies that reduce the
significant poor outcomes of this group, for whom effective interventions
are currently elusive.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Every year, 15 million people have a stroke. About 5 million of these people
die within a few days, and another 5 million are left disabled. Stroke
occurs when the brain's blood supply is suddenly interrupted by a blood
clot blocking a blood vessel in the brain (ischemic stroke, the commonest
type of stroke) or by a blood vessel in the brain bursting (hemorrhagic
stroke). Deprived of the oxygen normally carried to them by the blood, the
brain cells near the blockage die. The symptoms of stroke depend on which
part of the brain is damaged but include sudden weakness or paralysis along
one side of the body, vision loss in one or both eyes, and confusion or
trouble speaking or understanding speech. Anyone experiencing these symptoms
should seek immediate medical attention because prompt treatment can limit
the damage to the brain. Risk factors for stroke include age (three-quarters
of strokes occur in people over 65 years old), high blood pressure, and
heart disease.
Why Was This Study Done?
Post-stroke rehabilitation can help individuals overcome the physical
disabilities caused by stroke, and drugs and behavioral counseling can
reduce the risk of a second stroke. However, people can also have problems
with cognition (thinking, awareness, attention, learning, judgment, and
memory) after a stroke, and they can become depressed or anxious. These
“outcomes” can persist for many years, but although stroke is
acknowledged as a long-term condition, most existing data on stroke outcomes
are limited to a year after the stroke and often focus on disability alone.
Longer term, more extensive information is needed to help plan services and
to help develop research to improve outcomes. In this burden of disease
analysis, the researchers use follow-up data collected by the prospective
South London Stroke Register (SLSR) to provide long-term population-based
estimates of disability, cognition, and psychological outcomes after a first
stroke. The SLSR has recorded and followed all patients of all ages in an
inner area of South London after their first-ever stroke since 1995.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
Between 1995 and 2006, the SLSR recorded 3,373 first-ever strokes. Patients
were examined within 48 hours of referral to SLSR, their stroke diagnosis
was verified, and their sociodemographic characteristics (including age,
gender, and ethnic origin) were recorded. Study nurses and fieldworkers then
assessed the patients at three months and annually after the stroke for
disability (using the Barthel Index, which measures the ability to, for
example, eat unaided), inactivity (using the Frenchay Activities Index,
which measures participation in social activities), and cognitive impairment
(using the Abbreviated Mental Test or the Mini-Mental State Exam). Anxiety
and depression and the patients' perceptions of their mental and
physical capabilities were also assessed. Using preset cut-offs for each
outcome, 20%–30% of stroke survivors had a poor outcome
over ten years of follow-up. So, for example, 110 individuals per 1,000
population were judged disabled from three months to ten years, rates of
inactivity remained constant from year one to year eight, at 280 affected
individuals per 1,000 survivors, and rates of anxiety and depression
fluctuated over time but affected about a third of the population. Notably,
levels of inactivity were higher among men than women at all time points and
were higher in white than in black stroke survivors. Finally, increased age
was associated with higher rates of disability, inactivity, and cognitive
impairment.
What Do These Findings Mean?
Although the accuracy of these findings may be affected by the loss of some
patients to follow-up, these population-based estimates of outcome measures
for survivors of a first-ever stroke for up to ten years after the event
provide concrete evidence that stroke is a lifelong condition with ongoing
poor outcomes. They also identify the sociodemographic groups of patients
that are most affected in the longer term. Importantly, most of the measured
outcomes remain relatively constant (and worse than outcomes in an
age-matched non-stroke-affected population) after 3–12 months, a
result that needs to be considered when planning services for stroke
survivors. In other words, these findings highlight the need for health and
social services to provide long-term, ongoing assessment and rehabilitation
for patients for many years after a stroke.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001033.
The US National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke
provides information about all aspects of stroke (in English and Spanish); the US National
Institute of Health SeniorHealth Web site has additional information about stroke
The Internet Stroke Center provides detailed information about
stroke
for patients, families, and health professionals (in English and
Spanish)
The UK National Health Service Choices Web site also provides
information about stroke for patients and their families
MedlinePlus has links to additional resources about stroke (in English and Spanish)
More information about the South London Stroke Register is available