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1.  Interaction of Vaccination and Reduction of Antibiotic Use Drives Unexpected Increase of Pneumococcal Meningitis 
Scientific Reports  2015;5:11293.
Antibiotic-use policies may affect pneumococcal conjugate-vaccine effectiveness. The reported increase of pneumococcal meningitis from 2001 to 2009 in France, where a national campaign to reduce antibiotic use was implemented in parallel to the introduction of the 7-valent conjugate vaccine, provides unique data to assess these effects. We constructed a mechanistic pneumococcal transmission model and used likelihood to assess the ability of competing hypotheses to explain that increase. We find that a model integrating a fitness cost of penicillin resistance successfully explains the overall and age-stratified pattern of serotype replacement. By simulating counterfactual scenarios of public health interventions in France, we propose that this fitness cost caused a gradual and pernicious interaction between the two interventions by increasing the spread of nonvaccine, penicillin-susceptible strains. More generally, our results indicate that reductions of antibiotic use may counteract the benefits of conjugate vaccines introduced into countries with low vaccine-serotype coverages and high-resistance frequencies. Our findings highlight the key role of antibiotic use in vaccine-induced serotype replacement and suggest the need for more integrated approaches to control pneumococcal infections.
PMCID: PMC4462765  PMID: 26063589
2.  Insights into Persistence Mechanisms of a Zoonotic Virus in Bat Colonies Using a Multispecies Metapopulation Model 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(4):e95610.
Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1−transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995–2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol's method revealed that following the rate of autumn−winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii's incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.
PMCID: PMC3995755  PMID: 24755619
3.  Modeling tree crown dynamics with 3D partial differential equations 
We characterize a tree's spatial foliage distribution by the local leaf area density. Considering this spatially continuous variable allows to describe the spatiotemporal evolution of the tree crown by means of 3D partial differential equations. These offer a framework to rigorously take locally and adaptively acting effects into account, notably the growth toward light. Biomass production through photosynthesis and the allocation to foliage and wood are readily included in this model framework. The system of equations stands out due to its inherent dynamic property of self-organization and spontaneous adaptation, generating complex behavior from even only a few parameters. The density-based approach yields spatially structured tree crowns without relying on detailed geometry. We present the methodological fundamentals of such a modeling approach and discuss further prospects and applications.
PMCID: PMC4104424  PMID: 25101095
leaf area density; continuity equation; functional-structural plant model; crown plasticity; competition for light; Beer-Lambert's law
4.  Automated Cell Tracking and Analysis in Phase-Contrast Videos (iTrack4U): Development of Java Software Based on Combined Mean-Shift Processes 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(11):e81266.
Cell migration is a key biological process with a role in both physiological and pathological conditions. Locomotion of cells during embryonic development is essential for their correct positioning in the organism; immune cells have to migrate and circulate in response to injury. Failure of cells to migrate or an inappropriate acquisition of migratory capacities can result in severe defects such as altered pigmentation, skull and limb abnormalities during development, and defective wound repair, immunosuppression or tumor dissemination. The ability to accurately analyze and quantify cell migration is important for our understanding of development, homeostasis and disease. In vitro cell tracking experiments, using primary or established cell cultures, are often used to study migration as cells can quickly and easily be genetically or chemically manipulated. Images of the cells are acquired at regular time intervals over several hours using microscopes equipped with CCD camera. The locations (x,y,t) of each cell on the recorded sequence of frames then need to be tracked. Manual computer-assisted tracking is the traditional method for analyzing the migratory behavior of cells. However, this processing is extremely tedious and time-consuming. Most existing tracking algorithms require experience in programming languages that are unfamiliar to most biologists. We therefore developed an automated cell tracking program, written in Java, which uses a mean-shift algorithm and ImageJ as a library. iTrack4U is a user-friendly software. Compared to manual tracking, it saves considerable amount of time to generate and analyze the variables characterizing cell migration, since they are automatically computed with iTrack4U. Another major interest of iTrack4U is the standardization and the lack of inter-experimenter differences. Finally, iTrack4U is adapted for phase contrast and fluorescent cells.
PMCID: PMC3842324  PMID: 24312283
5.  A Functional and Structural Mongolian Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) Model Integrating Architecture, Biomass and Effects of Precipitation 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(8):e43531.
Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) is one of the principal tree species in the network of Three-North Shelterbelt for windbreak and sand stabilisation in China. The functions of shelterbelts are highly correlated with the architecture and eco-physiological processes of individual tree. Thus, model-assisted analysis of canopy architecture and function dynamic in Mongolian Scots pine is of value for better understanding its role and behaviour within shelterbelt ecosystems in these arid and semiarid regions. We present here a single-tree functional and structural model, derived from the GreenLab model, which is adapted for young Mongolian Scots pines by incorporation of plant biomass production, allocation, allometric rules and soil water dynamics. The model is calibrated and validated based on experimental measurements taken on Mongolian Scots pines in 2007 and 2006 under local meteorological conditions. Measurements include plant biomass, topology and geometry, as well as soil attributes and standard meteorological data. After calibration, the model allows reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) canopy architecture and biomass dynamics for trees from one- to six-year-old at the same site using meteorological data for the six years from 2001 to 2006. Sensitivity analysis indicates that rainfall variation has more influence on biomass increment than on architecture, and the internode and needle compartments and the aboveground biomass respond linearly to increases in precipitation. Sensitivity analysis also shows that the balance between internode and needle growth varies only slightly within the range of precipitations considered here. The model is expected to be used to investigate the growth of Mongolian Scots pines in other regions with different soils and climates.
PMCID: PMC3425476  PMID: 22927982
6.  A stochastic model of tree architecture and biomass partitioning: application to Mongolian Scots pines 
Annals of Botany  2010;107(5):781-792.
Background and Aims
Mongolian Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica) is one of the principal species used for windbreak and sand stabilization in arid and semi-arid areas in northern China. A model-assisted analysis of its canopy architectural development and functions is valuable for better understanding its behaviour and roles in fragile ecosystems. However, due to the intrinsic complexity and variability of trees, the parametric identification of such models is currently a major obstacle to their evaluation and their validation with respect to real data. The aim of this paper was to present the mathematical framework of a stochastic functional–structural model (GL2) and its parameterization for Mongolian Scots pines, taking into account inter-plant variability in terms of topological development and biomass partitioning.
In GL2, plant organogenesis is determined by the realization of random variables representing the behaviour of axillary or apical buds. The associated probabilities are calibrated for Mongolian Scots pines using experimental data including means and variances of the numbers of organs per plant in each order-based class. The functional part of the model relies on the principles of source–sink regulation and is parameterized by direct observations of living trees and the inversion method using measured data for organ mass and dimensions.
Key Results
The final calibration accuracy satisfies both organogenetic and morphogenetic processes. Our hypothesis for the number of organs following a binomial distribution is found to be consistent with the real data. Based on the calibrated parameters, stochastic simulations of the growth of Mongolian Scots pines in plantations are generated by the Monte Carlo method, allowing analysis of the inter-individual variability of the number of organs and biomass partitioning. Three-dimensional (3D) architectures of young Mongolian Scots pines were simulated for 4-, 6- and 8-year-old trees.
This work provides a new method for characterizing tree structures and biomass allocation that can be used to build a 3D virtual Mongolian Scots pine forest. The work paves the way for bridging the gap between a single-plant model and a stand model.
PMCID: PMC3077980  PMID: 21062760
Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica; functional–structural plant model; canopy architecture; three-dimensional; forest canopy; virtual plant; GreenLab, parameterization
7.  Quantitative Genetics and Functional–Structural Plant Growth Models: Simulation of Quantitative Trait Loci Detection for Model Parameters and Application to Potential Yield Optimization 
Annals of Botany  2007;101(8):1243-1254.
Background and Aims
Prediction of phenotypic traits from new genotypes under untested environmental conditions is crucial to build simulations of breeding strategies to improve target traits. Although the plant response to environmental stresses is characterized by both architectural and functional plasticity, recent attempts to integrate biological knowledge into genetics models have mainly concerned specific physiological processes or crop models without architecture, and thus may prove limited when studying genotype × environment interactions. Consequently, this paper presents a simulation study introducing genetics into a functional–structural growth model, which gives access to more fundamental traits for quantitative trait loci (QTL) detection and thus to promising tools for yield optimization.
The GREENLAB model was selected as a reasonable choice to link growth model parameters to QTL. Virtual genes and virtual chromosomes were defined to build a simple genetic model that drove the settings of the species-specific parameters of the model. The QTL Cartographer software was used to study QTL detection of simulated plant traits. A genetic algorithm was implemented to define the ideotype for yield maximization based on the model parameters and the associated allelic combination.
Key Results and Conclusions
By keeping the environmental factors constant and using a virtual population with a large number of individuals generated by a Mendelian genetic model, results for an ideal case could be simulated. Virtual QTL detection was compared in the case of phenotypic traits – such as cob weight – and when traits were model parameters, and was found to be more accurate in the latter case. The practical interest of this approach is illustrated by calculating the parameters (and the corresponding genotype) associated with yield optimization of a GREENLAB maize model. The paper discusses the potentials of GREENLAB to represent environment × genotype interactions, in particular through its main state variable, the ratio of biomass supply over demand.
PMCID: PMC2710265  PMID: 17766844
Plant growth model; GREENLAB; genetics; QTL; breeding; yield optimization; genetic algorithm; Zea mays

Results 1-7 (7)