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1.  Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Kassebaum, Nicholas J | Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia | Coggeshall, Megan S | Shackelford, Katya A | Steiner, Caitlyn | Heuton, Kyle R | Gonzalez-Medina, Diego | Barber, Ryan | Huynh, Chantal | Dicker, Daniel | Templin, Tara | Wolock, Timothy M | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abd-Allah, Foad | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie E | Akena, Dickens | Alasfoor, Deena | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alla, François | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad A | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Antonio, Carl A T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asad, Majed Masoud | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Basu, Arindam | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku J | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Breitborde, Nicholas | Cárdenas, Rosario | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Chang, Jung-Chen | Che, Xuan | Christophi, Costas A | Chugh, Sumeet S | Cirillo, Massimo | Colquhoun, Samantha M | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | da Costa Leite, Iuri | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Degenhardt, Louisa | De Leo, Diego | del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Dessalegn, Muluken | deVeber, Gabrielle A | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Dorrington, Rob E | Driscoll, Tim R | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Felicio, Manuela Mendonca | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | França, Elisabeth B | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gambashidze, Ketevan | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gibney, Katherine B | Giroud, Maurice | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | González-Castell, Dinorah | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Gupta, Rajeev | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Heredia Pi, Ileana B | Hoek, Hans W | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Husseini, Abdullatif | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Inoue, Manami | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jahangir, Eiman | Jee, Sun Ha | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kan, Haidong | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazanjan, Konstantin | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kwan, Gene | Lai, Taavi | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lam, Hilton | Lansingh, Van C | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Xiaohong | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | Liang, Juan | Liang, Xiaofeng | Lim, Stephen S | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | London, Stephanie J | Lotufo, Paulo A | Ma, Jixiang | Ma, Stefan | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Mainoo, Nana Kwaku | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan | Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez | Moore, Ami R | Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar | Mori, Rintaro | Mueller, Ulrich O | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Nand, Devina | Nangia, Vinay | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Park, Jae-Hyun | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Poenaru, Dan | Polanczyk, Guilherme V | Polinder, Suzanne | Pope, Dan | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Refaat, Amany | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sánchez Pimienta, Tania Georgina | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Sayinzoga, Felix | Schneider, Ione J C | Schumacher, Austin | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Shakh-Nazarova, Marina | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Sturua, Lela | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tan, Feng | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Tirschwell, David L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Tran, Bach X | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Undurraga, Eduardo A | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | van Gool, Coen H | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vavilala, Monica S | Venketasubramanian, N | Villalpando, Salvador | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wang, Haidong | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa Z | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El SayedZaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Naghavi, Mohsen | Murray, Christopher J L | Lozano, Rafael
Lancet  2014;384(9947):980-1004.
Summary
Background
The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.
Methods
We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
Findings
292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (−1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (−3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland.
Interpretation
Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6
PMCID: PMC4255481  PMID: 24797575
2.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | Lotufo, Paulo A | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Maclachlan, Jennifer H | Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Masci, Joseph R | Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mayosi, Bongani M | Mazorodze, Tasara T | Mckay, Abigail Cecilia | Meaney, Peter A | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Melaku, Yohannes Adama | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | Montico, Marcella | Moore, Ami R | Mori, Rintaro | Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Murthy, Kinnari S | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Naldi, Luigi | Nangia, Vinay | Narayan, K M Venkat | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nowaseb, Vincent | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pervaiz, Aslam | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quezada, Amado D | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad Ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Razavi, Homie | Reilly, Robert Quentin | Remuzzi, Giuseppe | Richardus, Jan Hendrik | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sabin, Nsanzimana | Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Samonte, Genesis May J | Sawhney, Monika | Schneider, Ione J C | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Shivakoti, Rupak | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Simard, Edgar P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soneji, Samir | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Swaminathan, Soumya | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thomson, Alan J | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Traebert, Jefferson | Tran, Bach X | Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | Vasankari, Tommi J | Venketasubramanian, N | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vollset, Stein Emil | Waller, Stephen | Wallin, Mitchell T | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | White, Richard A | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Thomas Neil | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Vos, Theo
Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
Summary
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Findings
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Interpretation
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949
3.  ABCC8 R1420H Loss-of-Function Variant in a Southwest American Indian Community: Association With Increased Birth Weight and Doubled Risk of Type 2 Diabetes 
Diabetes  2015;64(12):4322-4332.
Missense variants in KCNJ11 and ABCC8, which encode the KIR6.2 and SUR1 subunits of the β-cell KATP channel, have previously been implicated in type 2 diabetes, neonatal diabetes, and hyperinsulinemic hypoglycemia of infancy (HHI). To determine whether variation in these genes affects risk for type 2 diabetes or increased birth weight as a consequence of fetal hyperinsulinemia in Pima Indians, missense and common noncoding variants were analyzed in individuals living in the Gila River Indian Community. A R1420H variant in SUR1 (ABCC8) was identified in 3.3% of the population (N = 7,710). R1420H carriers had higher mean birth weights and a twofold increased risk for type 2 diabetes with a 7-year earlier onset age despite being leaner than noncarriers. One individual homozygous for R1420H was identified; retrospective review of his medical records was consistent with HHI and a diagnosis of diabetes at age 3.5 years. In vitro studies showed that the R1420H substitution decreases KATP channel activity. Identification of this loss-of-function variant in ABCC8 with a carrier frequency of 3.3% affects clinical care as homozygous inheritance and potential HHI will occur in 1/3,600 births in this American Indian population.
doi:10.2337/db15-0459
PMCID: PMC4657583  PMID: 26246406
4.  Effect of Geography on the Analysis of Coccidioidomycosis-Associated Deaths, United States 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2016;22(10):1821-1823.
Because coccidioidomycosis death rates vary by region, we reanalyzed coccidioidomycosis-associated mortality in the United States by race/ethnicity, then limited analysis to Arizona and California. Coccidioidomycosis-associated deaths were shown to increase among African-Americans but decrease among Native Americans and Hispanics. Separately, in a Native American cohort, diabetes co-varied with coccidioidomycosis-associated death.
doi:10.3201/eid2210.160696
PMCID: PMC5038404  PMID: 27649029
Coccidioides; coccidioidomycosis; diabetes mellitus; endemic diseases; African Americans; Arizona; California; Hispanic Americans; Native Americans; North America; risk factors; southwestern United States; spores; fungi
5.  Tissue-specific metabolic reprogramming drives nutrient flux in diabetic complications 
JCI Insight  null;1(15):e86976.
Diabetes is associated with altered cellular metabolism, but how altered metabolism contributes to the development of diabetic complications is unknown. We used the BKS db/db diabetic mouse model to investigate changes in carbohydrate and lipid metabolism in kidney cortex, peripheral nerve, and retina. A systems approach using transcriptomics, metabolomics, and metabolic flux analysis identified tissue-specific differences, with increased glucose and fatty acid metabolism in the kidney, a moderate increase in the retina, and a decrease in the nerve. In the kidney, increased metabolism was associated with enhanced protein acetylation and mitochondrial dysfunction. To confirm these findings in human disease, we analyzed diabetic kidney transcriptomic data and urinary metabolites from a cohort of Southwestern American Indians. The urinary findings were replicated in 2 independent patient cohorts, the Finnish Diabetic Nephropathy and the Family Investigation of Nephropathy and Diabetes studies. Increased concentrations of TCA cycle metabolites in urine, but not in plasma, predicted progression of diabetic kidney disease, and there was an enrichment of pathways involved in glycolysis and fatty acid and amino acid metabolism. Our findings highlight tissue-specific changes in metabolism in complication-prone tissues in diabetes and suggest that urinary TCA cycle intermediates are potential prognostic biomarkers of diabetic kidney disease progression.
Increased urinary TCA cycle intermediates are potential prognostic biomarkers of diabetic kidney disease progression.
doi:10.1172/jci.insight.86976
PMCID: PMC5033761  PMID: 27699244
6.  Tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 are associated with early glomerular lesions in type 2 diabetes 
Kidney international  2016;89(1):226-234.
Elevated serum tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (TNFR1) and 2 (TNFR2) concentrations are strongly associated with increased risk of end-stage renal disease in type 2 diabetes. However, little is known about the early glomerular structural lesions that develop in patients when these markers are elevated. Here we examined the relationships between TNFRs and glomerular structure in 83 American Indians with type 2 diabetes. Serum TNFRs and glomerular filtration rates (GFR, iothalamate) were measured during a research exam performed within a median of 0.9 months from a percutaneous kidney biopsy. Associations of TNFRs with glomerular structural variables were quantified by Spearman's correlations and by multivariable linear regression after adjustment for age, gender, diabetes duration, hemoglobin A1c, body mass index, and mean arterial pressure. The baseline mean age was 46 years, median GFR 130 ml/min, median albumin/creatinine ratio 26 mg/g, median TNFR1 1500 pg/ml, and median TNFR2 3284 pg/ml. After multivariable adjustment, TNFR1 and TNFR2 significantly correlated inversely with the percentage of endothelial cell fenestration and the total filtration surface per glomerulus. There were significant positive correlations with mesangial fractional volume glomerular basement membrane width, podocyte foot process width, and percent of global glomerular sclerosis. Thus, TNFRs may be involved in the pathogenesis of early glomerular lesions in diabetic nephropathy.
doi:10.1038/ki.2015.278
PMCID: PMC4805514  PMID: 26398493
diabetic nephropathy; endothelium; kidney biopsy
7.  Filtration Markers as Predictors of ESRD and Mortality in Southwestern American Indians With Type 2 Diabetes 
Background
A growing number of serum filtration markers are associated with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in adults. Whether β-trace protein (BTP) and β2-microglobulin (B2M) are associated with these outcomes in adults with type 2 diabetes is not known.
Study Design
Longitudinal cohort study.
Setting & Participants
250 Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes (69% women; mean age, 42 years; mean diabetes duration, 11 years).
Predictors
Serum BTP, B2M, and glomerular filtration rate measured by iothalamate clearance (mGFR) or estimated using creatinine (eGFRcr) or cystatin C (eGFRcys).
Outcomes & Measurements
Incident ESRD and all-cause mortality through December 2013. HRs were reported per interquartile range decrease of the inverse of BTP and B2M (1/BTP and 1/B2M) using Cox regression. Improvement in risk prediction with the addition of BTP or B2M to established markers (eGFRcys with mGFR or eGFRcr) was evaluated using C-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI).
Results
During median follow-up of 14 years, 69 participants developed ESRD and 95 died. Both novel markers were associated with ESRD in multivariable models. BTP remained statistically significant after further adjustment for mGFR (1/BTP, 1.53 [95% CI, 1.01-2.30]; 1/B2M, 1.54 [95% CI, 0.98-2.42]). B2M was associated with mortality in multivariable models and after further adjustment for mGFR (HR, 2.12; 95% CI, 1.38-3.26). The addition of B2M to established markers increased the C statistic for mortality but only weakly when assessed by either continuous NRI or rIDI; none were improved for ESRD by the addition of these markers.
Limitations
Small sample size, single measures of markers.
Conclusions
In Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes, BTP, and to a lesser extent B2M, was associated with ESRD. B2M was associated with mortality after adjustment for traditional risk factors and established filtration markers. Further studies are warranted to confirm whether inclusion of B2M in a multi-marker approach leads to improved risk prediction for mortality in this population..
doi:10.1053/j.ajkd.2015.01.013
PMCID: PMC4485524  PMID: 25773485
Beta-trace protein (BTP); beta-2 microglobulin (B2M); end-stage renal disease (ESRD); type 2 diabetes mellitus; diabetic kidney failure; mortality; filtration markers; glomerular filtration rate (GFR); kidney function; Pima Indians; CKD Biomarkers Consortium
8.  Update on Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Light of Recent Evidence: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association and the American Diabetes Association 
Diabetes Care  2015;38(9):1777-1803.
Cardiovascular disease risk factor control as primary prevention in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus has changed substantially in the past few years. The purpose of this scientific statement is to review the current literature and key clinical trials pertaining to blood pressure and blood glucose control, cholesterol management, aspirin therapy, and lifestyle modification. We present a synthesis of the recent literature, new guidelines, and clinical targets, including screening for kidney and subclinical cardiovascular disease for the contemporary management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.
doi:10.2337/dci15-0012
PMCID: PMC4876675  PMID: 26246459
9.  Role of Established Type 2 Diabetes–Susceptibility Genetic Variants in a High Prevalence American Indian Population 
Diabetes  2015;64(7):2646-2657.
Several single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been identified, but there is little information on their role in populations at high risk for T2DM. We genotyped SNPs at 63 T2DM loci in 3,421 individuals from a high-risk American Indian population. Nominally significant (P < 0.05) associations were observed at nine SNPs in a direction consistent with the established association. A genetic risk score derived from all loci was strongly associated with T2DM (odds ratio 1.05 per risk allele, P = 6.2 × 10−6) and, in 292 nondiabetic individuals, with lower insulin secretion (by 4% per copy, P = 4.1 × 10−6). Genetic distances between American Indians and HapMap populations at T2DM markers did not differ significantly from genomic expectations. Analysis of U.S. national survey data suggested that 66% of the difference in T2DM prevalence between African Americans and European Americans, but none of the difference between American Indians and European Americans, was attributable to allele frequency differences at these loci. These analyses suggest that, in general, established T2DM loci influence T2DM in American Indians and that risk is mediated in part through an effect on insulin secretion. However, differences in allele frequencies do not account for the high population prevalence of T2DM.
doi:10.2337/db14-1715
PMCID: PMC4477349  PMID: 25667308
10.  A cis-eQTL in PFKFB2 is associated with diabetic nephropathy, adiposity and insulin secretion in American Indians 
Human Molecular Genetics  2015;24(10):2985-2996.
A prior genome-wide association study (GWAS) in Pima Indians identified a variant within PFKFB2 (rs17258746) associated with body mass index (BMI). PFKFB2 encodes 6-phosphofructo-2-kinase/fructose 2,6-bisphosphatase isoform 2, which plays a role in glucose metabolism. To follow-up on the GWAS, tag SNPs across PFKFB2 were genotyped in American Indians (AI) who had longitudinal data on BMI (n = 6839), type 2 diabetes (T2D; n = 7710), diabetic nephropathy (DN; n = 2452), % body fat (n = 555) and insulin secretion (n = 298). Two SNPs were further genotyped in urban AI to assess replication for DN (n = 864). PFKFB2 expression was measured in 201 adipose biopsies using real-time RT-PCR and 61 kidney biopsies using the Affymetrix U133 array. Two SNPs (rs17258746 and rs11120137), which capture the same signal, were associated with maximum BMI in adulthood (β = 1.02 per risk allele, P = 7.3 × 10−4), maximum BMI z-score in childhood (β = 0.079, P = 0.03) and % body fat in adulthood (β = 3.4%, P = 3 × 10−7). The adiposity-increasing allele correlated with lower PFKFB2 adipose expression (β = 0.81, P = 9.4 × 10−4). Lower expression of PFKFB2 further correlated with higher % body fat (r = −0.16, P = 0.02) and BMI (r = −0.17, P = 0.02). This allele was also associated with increased risk for DN in both cohorts of AI [odds ratio = 1.64 (1.32–2.02), P = 5.8 × 10−6], and similarly correlated with lower PFKFB2 expression in kidney glomeruli (β = 0.87, P = 0.03). The same allele was also associated with lower insulin secretion assessed by acute insulin response (β = 0.78, P = 0.03) and 30-min plasma insulin concentrations (β = 0.78, P = 1.1 × 10−4). Variation in PFKFB2 appears to reduce PFKFB2 expression in adipose and kidney tissues, and thereby increase risk for adiposity and DN.
doi:10.1093/hmg/ddv040
PMCID: PMC4416128  PMID: 25662186
11.  Selecting SNPs informative for African, American Indian and European Ancestry: application to the Family Investigation of Nephropathy and Diabetes (FIND) 
BMC Genomics  2016;17:325.
Background
The presence of population structure in a sample may confound the search for important genetic loci associated with disease. Our four samples in the Family Investigation of Nephropathy and Diabetes (FIND), European Americans, Mexican Americans, African Americans, and American Indians are part of a genome- wide association study in which population structure might be particularly important. We therefore decided to study in detail one component of this, individual genetic ancestry (IGA). From SNPs present on the Affymetrix 6.0 Human SNP array, we identified 3 sets of ancestry informative markers (AIMs), each maximized for the information in one the three contrasts among ancestral populations: Europeans (HAPMAP, CEU), Africans (HAPMAP, YRI and LWK), and Native Americans (full heritage Pima Indians). We estimate IGA and present an algorithm for their standard errors, compare IGA to principal components, emphasize the importance of balancing information in the ancestry informative markers (AIMs), and test the association of IGA with diabetic nephropathy in the combined sample.
Results
A fixed parental allele maximum likelihood algorithm was applied to the FIND to estimate IGA in four samples: 869 American Indians; 1385 African Americans; 1451 Mexican Americans; and 826 European Americans. When the information in the AIMs is unbalanced, the estimates are incorrect with large error. Individual genetic admixture is highly correlated with principle components for capturing population structure. It takes ~700 SNPs to reduce the average standard error of individual admixture below 0.01. When the samples are combined, the resulting population structure creates associations between IGA and diabetic nephropathy.
Conclusions
The identified set of AIMs, which include American Indian parental allele frequencies, may be particularly useful for estimating genetic admixture in populations from the Americas. Failure to balance information in maximum likelihood, poly-ancestry models creates biased estimates of individual admixture with large error. This also occurs when estimating IGA using the Bayesian clustering method as implemented in the program STRUCTURE. Odds ratios for the associations of IGA with disease are consistent with what is known about the incidence and prevalence of diabetic nephropathy in these populations.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12864-016-2654-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
doi:10.1186/s12864-016-2654-x
PMCID: PMC4855449  PMID: 27142425
Individual genetic ancestry; Population structure; SNP; Diabetic nephropathy
12.  Urinary monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and hepcidin and early diabetic nephropathy lesions in type 1 diabetes mellitus 
…the residual risk of renal disease progression in patients with diabetic nephropathy is still extremely high despite current optimal treatment; innate immunity, MCP-1 and macrophage tissue infiltration seem very promising targets for future treatment of diabetic nephropathy on top of the standard of care with RAAS inhibition.
Background
Urinary monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) and hepcidin are potential biomarkers of renal inflammation. We examined their association with development of diabetic nephropathy (DN) lesions in normotensive normoalbuminuric subjects with type 1 diabetes (T1D) from the Renin-Angiotensin System Study.
Methods
Biomarker concentrations were measured in baseline urine samples from 224 subjects who underwent kidney biopsies at baseline and after 5 years. Fifty-eight urine samples below the limit of quantitation (LOQ, 28.8 pg/mL) of the MCP-1 assay were assigned concentrations of LOQ/√2 for analysis. Relationships between ln(MCP-1/Cr) or ln(hepcidin/Cr) and morphometric variables were assessed by sex using multiple linear regression after adjustment for age, T1D duration, HbA1c, mean arterial pressure, albumin excretion rate (AER) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR). In models that examined changes in morphometric variables, the baseline morphometric value was also included.
Results
Baseline mean age was 24.6 years, mean duration of T1D 11.2 years, median AER 6.4 µg/min and mean iohexol GFR 129 mL/min/1.73 m2. No associations were found between hepcidin/Cr and morphometric variables. Higher MCP-1/Cr was associated with higher interstitial fractional volume at baseline and after 5 years in women (baseline partial r = 0.244, P = 0.024; 5-year partial r = 0.299, P = 0.005), but not in men (baseline partial r = −0.049, P = 0.678; 5-year partial r = 0.026, P = 0.830). MCP-1 was not associated with glomerular lesions in either sex.
Conclusions
Elevated urinary MCP-1 concentration measured before clinical findings of DN in women with T1D was associated with changes in kidney interstitial volume, suggesting that inflammatory processes may be involved in the pathogenesis of early interstitial changes in DN.
doi:10.1093/ndt/gfv012
PMCID: PMC4402379  PMID: 25648911
biomarkers; diabetic nephropathy; hepcidin; interstitial fibrosis; monocyte chemoattractant protein-1
13.  Elevation of circulating TNF receptors 1 and 2 increases the risk of end-stage renal disease in American Indians with type 2 diabetes 
Kidney international  2014;87(4):812-819.
In Caucasians with type 2 diabetes, circulating TNF receptors 1 (TNFR1) and 2 (TNFR2) predict end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Here we examined this relationship in a longitudinal cohort study of American Indians with type 2 diabetes with measured glomerular filtration rate (mGFR, iothalamate) and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio. ESRD was defined as dialysis, kidney transplant, or death attributed to diabetic kidney disease. Age-gender-adjusted incidence rates and incidence rate ratios of ESRD were computed by Mantel-Haenszel stratification. The hazard ratio of ESRD was assessed per interquartile range increase in the distribution of each TNFR after adjusting for baseline age, gender, mean blood pressure, HbA1c, albumin-to-creatinine ratio, and mGFR. Among the 193 participants, 62 developed ESRD and 25 died without ESRD during a median follow-up of 9.5 years. The age-gender-adjusted incidence rate ratio of ESRD was higher among participants in the highest vs. lowest quartile for TNFR1 (6.6, 95% CI 3.3–13.3) or TNFR2 (8.8, 95% CI 4.3–18.0). In the fully adjusted model, the risk of ESRD per interquartile range increase was 1.6 times (95% CI 1.1–2.2) as high for TNFR1 and 1.7 times (95% CI 1.2–2.3) as high for TNFR2. Thus, elevated serum concentrations of TNFR1 or TNFR2 are associated with increased risk of ESRD in American Indians with type 2 diabetes after accounting for traditional risk factors including albumin-to-creatinine ratio and mGFR
doi:10.1038/ki.2014.330
PMCID: PMC4382420  PMID: 25272234
15.  Association of urinary KIM-1, L-FABP, NAG and NGAL with incident end-stage renal disease and mortality in American Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus 
Diabetologia  2014;58(1):188-198.
Aims/hypothesis
Kidney injury molecule 1 (KIM-1), liver fatty acid-binding protein (L-FABP), N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase (NAG) and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) are urinary biomarkers of renal tubular injury. We examined their association with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality in American Indians with type 2 diabetes.
Methods
Biomarker concentrations were measured in baseline urine samples in 260 Pima Indians who were followed for a median of 14 years. HRs were reported per SD of creatinine (Cr)-normalised log-transformed KIM-1, NAG and NGAL, and for three categories of L-FABP.
Results
During follow-up, 74 participants developed ESRD and 101 died. Median concentrations of KIM-1/Cr, NAG/Cr and NGAL/Cr and the proportion of detectable L-FABP were highest in those with macroalbuminuria (p < 0.001 for KIM-1/Cr, NAG/Cr and L-FABP; p = 0.006 for NGAL/Cr). After multivariable adjustment, NGAL/Cr was positively associated with ESRD (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.20, 2.11) and mortality (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.06, 1.82); L-FABP/Cr was inversely associated with ESRD (HR [for highest vs lowest tertile] 0.40, 95% CI 0.19, 0.83). Addition of NGAL/Cr to models that included albuminuria and glomerular filtration rate increased the c-statistic for predicting ESRD from 0.828 to 0.833 (p = 0.001) and for death from 0.710 to 0.722 (p = 0.018). Addition of L-FABP/Cr increased the c-statistic for ESRD from 0.828 to 0.832 (p = 0.042).
Conclusions/interpretation
In Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes, urinary concentrations of NGAL and L-FABP are associated with important health outcomes, but they are unlikely to add to risk prediction with standard markers in a clinically meaningful way given the small increase in the c-statistic.
doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3389-3
PMCID: PMC4258130  PMID: 25316431
Biomarkers; End-stage renal disease; Mortality; Type 2 diabetes
16.  Genome-Wide Association and Trans-ethnic Meta-Analysis for Advanced Diabetic Kidney Disease: Family Investigation of Nephropathy and Diabetes (FIND) 
PLoS Genetics  2015;11(8):e1005352.
Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is the most common etiology of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the industrialized world and accounts for much of the excess mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus. Approximately 45% of U.S. patients with incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) have DKD. Independent of glycemic control, DKD aggregates in families and has higher incidence rates in African, Mexican, and American Indian ancestral groups relative to European populations. The Family Investigation of Nephropathy and Diabetes (FIND) performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) contrasting 6,197 unrelated individuals with advanced DKD with healthy and diabetic individuals lacking nephropathy of European American, African American, Mexican American, or American Indian ancestry. A large-scale replication and trans-ethnic meta-analysis included 7,539 additional European American, African American and American Indian DKD cases and non-nephropathy controls. Within ethnic group meta-analysis of discovery GWAS and replication set results identified genome-wide significant evidence for association between DKD and rs12523822 on chromosome 6q25.2 in American Indians (P = 5.74x10-9). The strongest signal of association in the trans-ethnic meta-analysis was with a SNP in strong linkage disequilibrium with rs12523822 (rs955333; P = 1.31x10-8), with directionally consistent results across ethnic groups. These 6q25.2 SNPs are located between the SCAF8 and CNKSR3 genes, a region with DKD relevant changes in gene expression and an eQTL with IPCEF1, a gene co-translated with CNKSR3. Several other SNPs demonstrated suggestive evidence of association with DKD, within and across populations. These data identify a novel DKD susceptibility locus with consistent directions of effect across diverse ancestral groups and provide insight into the genetic architecture of DKD.
Author Summary
Type 2 diabetes is the most common cause of severe kidney disease worldwide and diabetic kidney disease (DKD) associates with premature death. Individuals of non-European ancestry have the highest burden of type 2 DKD; hence understanding the causes of DKD remains critical to reducing health disparities. Family studies demonstrate that genes regulate the onset and progression of DKD; however, identifying these genes has proven to be challenging. The Family Investigation of Diabetes and Nephropathy consortium (FIND) recruited a large multi-ethnic collection of individuals with type 2 diabetes with and without kidney disease in order to detect genes associated with DKD. FIND discovered and replicated a DKD-associated genetic locus on human chromosome 6q25.2 (rs955333) between the SCAF8 and CNKSR genes. Findings were supported by significantly different expression of genes in this region from kidney tissue of subjects with, versus without DKD. The present findings identify a novel kidney disease susceptibility locus in individuals with type 2 diabetes which is consistent across subjects of differing ancestries. In addition, FIND results provide a rich catalogue of genetic variation in DKD patients for future research on the genetic architecture regulating this common and devastating disease.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1005352
PMCID: PMC4549309  PMID: 26305897
17.  A Family History of Diabetes Modifies the Association between Elevated Urine Albumin Concentration and Hyperglycemia in Nondiabetic Mexican Adolescents 
Journal of Diabetes Research  2015;2015:437079.
We examined the frequency of elevated urine albumin concentration (UAC) and its association with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and metabolic markers in 515 nondiabetic Mexican adolescents stratified by family history of diabetes (FHD). UAC was measured in a first morning urine sample and considered elevated when excretion was ≥20 mg/mL. MetS was defined using International Diabetes Federation criteria. Fasting insulin, insulin resistance, and lipids were evaluated. Multivariate logistic regression was performed. Elevated UAC was present in 12.4% and MetS was present in 8.9% of the adolescents. No association was found between elevated UAC and MetS. Among adolescents with FHD, 18.4% were overweight and 20.7% were obese, whereas, among those without a FHD, 15.9% were overweight and 7.5% were obese. Hyperglycemia was higher in those with elevated UAC than in those without (44.4% versus 5.1%, p = 0.003). Hyperglycemia (OR = 9.8, 95% CI 1.6–59.4) and number of MetS components (OR = 4.5, 95% CI 1.5–13.3) were independently associated with elevated UAC. Among female participants, abdominal obesity was associated with elevated UAC (OR = 4.5, 95% CI 1.2–16.9). Conclusion. Elevated UAC was associated neither with MetS nor with any metabolic markers in nondiabetic adolescents. However, FHD modified the association of elevated UAC with hyperglycemia and the number of MetS components.
doi:10.1155/2015/437079
PMCID: PMC4548133  PMID: 26347891
18.  Diabetic Kidney Disease– A clinical update from Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) 
Kidney international  2014;87(1):20-30.
The incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) continue to grow dramatically throughout the world, due primarily to the increase in type 2 DM (T2DM). Although improvements in DM and hypertension management have reduced the proportion of diabetic individuals who develop chronic kidney disease (CKD) and progress to end-stage renal disease (ESRD), the sheer increase in people developing DM will have a major impact on dialysis and transplant needs. This KDIGO conference addressed a number of controversial areas in the management of DM patients with CKD, including aspects of screening for CKD with measurements of albuminuria and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR); defining treatment outcomes; glycemic management in both those developing CKD and those with ESRD; hypertension goals and management, including blockers of the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system; and lipid management.
doi:10.1038/ki.2014.128
PMCID: PMC4214898  PMID: 24786708
Albuminuria; blood pressure; diabetic kidney disease; glycemic control; lipid management
19.  Effect of Losartan on Prevention and Progression of Early Diabetic Nephropathy in American Indians With Type 2 Diabetes 
Diabetes  2013;62(9):3224-3231.
Angiotensin receptor blockers are renoprotective in hypertensive azotemic patients with type 2 diabetes, but their efficacy in early diabetic kidney disease is uncertain. We performed a 6-year randomized clinical trial in 169 American Indians with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria (albumin/creatinine ratio [ACR] <30 mg/g; n = 91) or microalbuminuria (ACR 30–299 mg/g; n = 78) at baseline. The primary outcome was decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) to ≤60 mL/min or to half the baseline value in subjects who entered with GFR <120 mL/min. Another outcome was differences in glomerular structure at end of treatment. Subjects received 100 mg losartan or placebo daily. GFR was measured annually; 111 subjects underwent kidney biopsies. Only nine subjects reached the GFR outcome, and the unadjusted hazard ratio (losartan vs. placebo) was 0.50 (95% CI, 0.12–1.99). Differences in mesangial fractional volume were not estimated in the combined albuminuria groups because of an interaction with treatment assignment. In separate analyses, mesangial fractional volume was lower in subjects treated with losartan in the microalbuminuria group (18.8 vs. 25.6%; P = 0.02), but not in the normoalbuminuria group (19.6 vs. 17.8%; P = 0.86). Treatment with losartan may preserve some features of kidney structure in American Indians with type 2 diabetes and microalbuminuria.
doi:10.2337/db12-1512
PMCID: PMC3749332  PMID: 23545707
20.  Comparison of Serum Cystatin C, Serum Creatinine, Measured GFR, and Estimated GFR to Assess the Risk of Kidney Failure in American Indians With Diabetic Nephropathy 
Background
We compared values of baseline serum cystatin C (SCysC), serum creatinine (SCr), and measured GFR (mGFR) for predicting end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated albuminuria.
Study Design
Observational longitudinal study.
Setting & Participants
Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes and elevated albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR ≥ 30 mg/g).
Predictors
Baseline SCysC, SCr, and mGFR.
Outcomes & Measurements
Individuals were followed from their first diabetic examination with ACR ≥ 30 mg/g until December 2010, onset of ESRD, or death, whichever came first. Incidence rates adjusted for age, and sex were computed by Mantel-Haenszel stratification. The abilities of SCysC, SCr, and mGFR to predict ESRD were compared with receiver operating characteristic curves.
Results
Of 234 Pima Indians with a mean age of 42.8 years who were followed for a median of 10.7 (range, 0.6–21.3) years, 68 (29%) developed ESRD. The incidence of ESRD was significantly higher among patients in the lowest vs. highest tertile of 1/SCysC (incidence rate ratio, 2.43; 95%CI, 1.31–4.50). By contrast, mGFR and 1/SCr had J-shaped associations with ESRD. In unadjusted analyses, 1/SCysC had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC; 0.719±0.035) and mGFR the lowest (0.585±0.042; P<0.001); the AUROC for 1/SCr was intermediate (0.672±0.040; P of 0.1 and 0.03 vs 1/SCysC and mGFR, respectively). In analyses adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration, height, weight, hemoglobin A1c, and ACR, 1/SCysC had the highest AUROC (0.845±0.026). Models with mGFR or 1/SCr alone had similar AUROCs (0.815±0.028) and both were lower than the model with 1/SCysC alone (P=0.02 and P=0.03, respectively).
Limitations
The predictive values of the filtration markers are limited to the extent that their precision is based on a single measurement.
Conclusions
SCysC was a better predictor of ESRD than mGFR or SCr in Pima Indians with type 2 diabetes and elevated albuminuria.
doi:10.1053/j.ajkd.2012.11.044
PMCID: PMC3664248  PMID: 23347458
22.  Arsenic Exposure and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Southwestern American Indians 
American Journal of Epidemiology  2013;177(9):962-969.
Association of urinary arsenic concentration with incident diabetes was examined in American Indians from Arizona who have a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes and were screened for diabetes between 1982 and 2007. The population resides where drinking water contains arsenic at concentrations above federally recommended limits. A total of 150 nondiabetic subjects aged ≥25 years who subsequently developed type 2 diabetes were matched by year of examination and sex to 150 controls who remained nondiabetic for ≥10 years. Total urinary arsenic concentration, adjusted for urinary creatinine level, ranged from 6.6 µg/L to 123.1 µg/L, and inorganic arsenic concentration ranged from 0.1 µg/L to 36.0 µg/L. In logistic regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and urinary creatinine level, the odds ratios for incident diabetes were 1.11 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.79, 1.57) and 1.16 (95% CI: 0.89, 1.53) for a 2-fold increase in total arsenic and inorganic arsenic, respectively. Categorical analyses suggested a positive relationship between quartiles of inorganic arsenic and incident diabetes (P = 0.056); post-hoc comparison of quartiles 2–4 with quartile 1 revealed 2-fold higher odds of diabetes in the upper quartiles (OR = 2.14, 95% CI: 1.19, 3.85). Modestly elevated exposure to inorganic arsenic may predict type 2 diabetes in American Indians. Larger studies that include measures of speciated arsenic are required for confirmation.
doi:10.1093/aje/kws329
PMCID: PMC4023294  PMID: 23504692
arsenic; diabetes mellitus, type 2; incidence; Indians, North American; nested case-control studies
23.  A Genome-Wide Association Study in American Indians Implicates DNER as a Susceptibility Locus for Type 2 Diabetes 
Diabetes  2013;63(1):369-376.
Most genetic variants associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) have been identified through genome-wide association studies (GWASs) in Europeans. The current study reports a GWAS for young-onset T2DM in American Indians. Participants were selected from a longitudinal study conducted in Pima Indians and included 278 cases with diabetes with onset before 25 years of age, 295 nondiabetic controls ≥45 years of age, and 267 siblings of cases or controls. Individuals were genotyped on a ∼1M single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array, resulting in 453,654 SNPs with minor allele frequency >0.05. SNPs were analyzed for association in cases and controls, and a family-based association test was conducted. Tag SNPs (n = 311) were selected for 499 SNPs associated with diabetes (P < 0.0005 in case-control analyses or P < 0.0003 in family-based analyses), and these SNPs were genotyped in up to 6,834 additional Pima Indians to assess replication. Rs1861612 in DNER was associated with T2DM (odds ratio = 1.29 per copy of the T allele; P = 6.6 × 10−8, which represents genome-wide significance accounting for the number of effectively independent SNPs analyzed). Transfection studies in murine pancreatic β-cells suggested that DNER regulates expression of notch signaling pathway genes. These studies implicate DNER as a susceptibility gene for T2DM in American Indians.
doi:10.2337/db13-0416
PMCID: PMC3868048  PMID: 24101674
24.  Evaluation of the CKD-EPI Equation in Multiple Races and Ethnicities 
Kidney international  2010;79(5):555-562.
Background
The CKD-EPI equation reduces bias and improves accuracy for GFR estimation compared to the MDRD Study equation. Creatinine generation differs among racial-ethnic groups but both equations only consider Blacks vs other. We developed and validated a GFR-estimating equation that includes a 4-level race variable.
Methods
Equations were developed in pooled data from 10 studies (N=8254) and validated in 17 additional studies from the US and Europe [CKD-EPI validation database (N=4014)], and in studies from China (N=675), Japan (N=248) and South Africa (N=99). Race was defined as a 2-level variable (Black vs other) and a 4-level variable (Black, Asian, Native American and Hispanic vs other).
Results
Coefficients for Black, Asian and Native American and Hispanic resulted in 15%, 5% and 1% higherlevels of estimated GFR, respectively, compared to others. The 2-level race equation had minimal bias in Blacks, Native Americans, Hispanics and others [−0.8 (−2.0,0.6), 2.3 (−2.1,5.1), and 2.8 (2.4,3.2) ml/min/1.73 m2, respectively) in the CKD-EPI validation database. The 4-level race equation improved bias in CKD-EPI Asians (0.8 (−2.2,2.6) vs 2.1 (0.3,4.4) ml/min/1.73 m2) and in Chinese (1.3 (0.6,2.2) vs 2.7 (1.9,3.7) ml/min/1.73 m2). Both equations had a large bias in Japanese [−17.8 (−0.1,−14.7) and −21.4 (−23.2,−18.2) ml/min/1.73 m2)] and South Africans [−12.4 (−18.3,−7.6) and −12.5 (−18.3,−7.6) ml/min/1.73 m2.
Conclusions
A multilevel variable for race developed in one geographic region may not be applicable in other regions. The 2-level race variable in the CKD-EPI equation can be used for all racial-ethnic groups in the US and Europe.
doi:10.1038/ki.2010.462
PMCID: PMC4220293  PMID: 21107446
25.  Cyclodextrin Protects Podocytes in Diabetic Kidney Disease 
Diabetes  2013;62(11):3817-3827.
Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) remains the most common cause of end-stage kidney disease despite multifactorial intervention. We demonstrated that increased cholesterol in association with downregulation of ATP-binding cassette transporter ABCA1 occurs in normal human podocytes exposed to the sera of patients with type 1 diabetes and albuminuria (DKD+) when compared with diabetic patients with normoalbuminuria (DKD−) and similar duration of diabetes and lipid profile. Glomerular downregulation of ABCA1 was confirmed in biopsies from patients with early DKD (n = 70) when compared with normal living donors (n = 32). Induction of cholesterol efflux with cyclodextrin (CD) but not inhibition of cholesterol synthesis with simvastatin prevented podocyte injury observed in vitro after exposure to patient sera. Subcutaneous administration of CD to diabetic BTBR (black and tan, brachiuric) ob/ob mice was safe and reduced albuminuria, mesangial expansion, kidney weight, and cortical cholesterol content. This was followed by an improvement of fasting insulin, blood glucose, body weight, and glucose tolerance in vivo and improved glucose-stimulated insulin release in human islets in vitro. Our data suggest that impaired reverse cholesterol transport characterizes clinical and experimental DKD and negatively influences podocyte function. Treatment with CD is safe and effective in preserving podocyte function in vitro and in vivo and may improve the metabolic control of diabetes.
doi:10.2337/db13-0399
PMCID: PMC3806621  PMID: 23835338

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