Background

Large-scale forest conservation projects are underway in the Brazilian Amazon but little is known regarding their public health impact. Current literature emphasizes how land clearing increases malaria incidence, leading to the conclusion that forest conservation decreases malaria burden. Yet, there is also evidence that proximity to forest fringes increases malaria incidence, which implies the opposite relationship between forest conservation and malaria. We compare the effect of these environmental factors on malaria and explore its implications.

Methods and Findings

Using a large malaria dataset (∼1,300,000 positive malaria tests collected over ∼4.5 million km2), satellite imagery, permutation tests, and hierarchical Bayesian regressions, we show that greater forest cover (as a proxy for proximity to forest fringes) tends to be associated with higher malaria incidence, and that forest cover effect was 25 times greater than the land clearing effect, the often cited culprit of malaria in the region. These findings have important implications for land use/land cover (LULC) policies in the region. We find that cities close to protected areas (PA’s) tend to have higher malaria incidence than cities far from PA’s. Using future LULC scenarios, we show that avoiding 10% of deforestation through better governance might result in an average 2-fold increase in malaria incidence by 2050 in urban health posts.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that cost analysis of reduced carbon emissions from conservation efforts in the region should account for increased malaria morbidity, and that conservation initiatives should consider adopting malaria mitigation strategies. Coordinated actions from disparate science fields, government ministries, and global initiatives (e.g., Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation; Millenium Development Goals; Roll Back Malaria; and Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria), will be required to decrease malaria toll in the region while preserving these important ecosystems.

Objectives

This study was conducted to evaluate the performance of World Health Organisation (WHO) verbal autopsy tool in determining major causes of neonatal deaths.

Methods

From a tertiary care hospital and a government multispecialty hospital, the attending paediatricians ascertained a clinical cause of death for 371 neonatal deaths. Trained field workers conducted verbal autopsy (VA) interviews. Two independent paediatricians, who had no access to the clinical information, assigned cause of death as per verbal autopsy. Analysis was based on 313 cases in which both clinical diagnosis and VA diagnosis was obtained.

Findings

As per the clinical diagnosis, four most common causes of neonatal deaths were sepsis (29.1%), preterm birth (27.8%), birth asphyxia (27.2%), and congenital anomalies (11.5%). Cause specific mortality fractions by VA diagnosis were statistically similar to those obtained by clinical diagnosis except for birth asphyxia (16.3%). Diagnostic accuracy of verbal autopsy diagnosis against clinical diagnosis ranged from 78% to 92% in ascertaining different underlying causes of death. Area under the Receiver-Operator Characteristics curve (95% confidence interval) was 0.75 (0.69–0.80) for sepsis, 0.74 (0.68–0.80) for preterm birth, 0.73 (0.65–0.82) for congenital anomaly and 0.70 (0.64–0.75) for birth asphyxia. Kappa for all four causes was moderate (0.46–0.55).

Interpretation

The WHO verbal autopsy tools can provide reasonably good estimates of predominant causes of neonatal deaths in countries where neonatal mortality is high. Caution is required to interpret cause specific mortality fraction (CSMF) for birth asphyxia by VA because it is likely to be an underestimate.

Background

Malaria remains the leading communicable disease in Ethiopia, with around one million clinical cases of malaria reported annually. The country currently has plans for elimination for specific geographic areas of the country. Human movement may lead to the maintenance of reservoirs of infection, complicating attempts to eliminate malaria.

Methods

An unmatched case–control study was conducted with 560 adult patients at a Health Centre in central Ethiopia. Patients who received a malaria test were interviewed regarding their recent travel histories. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to determine if reported travel outside of the home village within the last month was related to malaria infection status.

Results

After adjusting for several known confounding factors, travel away from the home village in the last 30 days was a statistically significant risk factor for infection with Plasmodium falciparum (AOR 1.76; p=0.03) but not for infection with Plasmodium vivax (AOR 1.17; p=0.62). Male sex was strongly associated with any malaria infection (AOR 2.00; p=0.001).

Conclusions

Given the importance of identifying reservoir infections, consideration of human movement patterns should factor into decisions regarding elimination and disease prevention, especially when targeted areas are limited to regions within a country.

Background

Health facility stock-outs of life saving malaria medicines are common across Africa. Innovative ways of addressing this problem are urgently required. We evaluated whether SMS based reporting of stocks of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) can result in reduction of stock-outs at peripheral facilities in Kenya.

Methods/Findings

All 87 public health facilities in five Kenyan districts were included in a 26 week project. Weekly facility stock counts of four AL packs and RDTs were sent via structured incentivized SMS communication process from health workers’ personal mobile phones to a web-based system accessed by district managers. The mean health facility response rate was 97% with a mean formatting error rate of 3%. Accuracy of stock count reports was 79% while accuracy of stock-out reports was 93%. District managers accessed the system 1,037 times at an average of eight times per week. The system was accessed in 82% of the study weeks. Comparing weeks 1 and 26, stock-out of one or more AL packs declined by 38 percentage-points. Total AL stock-out declined by 5 percentage-points and was eliminated by the end of the project. Stock-out declines of individual AL packs ranged from 14 to 32 percentage-points while decline in RDT stock-outs was 24 percentage-points. District managers responded to 44% of AL and 73% of RDT stock-out signals by redistributing commodities between facilities. In comparison with national trends, stock-out declines in study areas were greater, sharper and more sustained.

Conclusions

Use of simple SMS technology ensured high reporting rates of reasonably accurate, real-time facility stock data that were used by district managers to undertake corrective actions to reduce stock-outs. Future work on stock monitoring via SMS should focus on assessing response rates without use of incentives and demonstrating effectiveness of such interventions on a larger scale.

Background

Increasing the distribution and use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in Sub-Saharan Africa has made controlling malaria with ITNs more practical. We evaluated community effects induced by ITNs, specifically long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), under ordinary conditions in an endemic malaria area of Western Kenya.

Methods

Using the database from Mbita Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), children younger than 5 years old were assessed over four survey periods. We analyzed the effect of bed net usage, LLIN density and population density of young people around a child on all-cause child mortality (ACCM) rates using Cox PH models.

Results

During the study, 14,554 children were followed and 250 deaths were recorded. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for LLIN usage compared with no net usage were not significant among the models: 1.08 (95%CI 0.76–1.52), 1.19 (95%CI 0.69–2.08) and 0.92 (95%CI 0.42–2.02) for LLIN users, untreated net users, and any net users, respectively. A significant increasing linear trend in risk across LLIN density quartiles (HR = 1.25; 95%CI 1.03–1.51) and a decreasing linear trend in risk across young population density quartiles among non-net user children (HR = 0.77; 95%CI 0.63–0.94) were observed.

Conclusions

Although our data showed that current LLIN coverage level (about 35%) could induce a community effect to protect children sleeping without bed nets even in a malaria-endemic area, it appears that a better system is needed to monitor the current malaria situation globally in order to optimize malaria control programs with limited resources.

Background

Diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity among children under 5 years of age in low- and middle-income countries yet the additional effects and sequelae, such as cognitive impairment associated with diarrhea, have not been quantified.

Methods

We quantified the association between diarrhea prevalence and cognitive outcomes while controlling for linear growth in 4 study populations. Cognition was assessed using different methods across sites and was expressed in standardized units. We built linear regression models for each study with standardized cognitive score as the outcome and diarrhea prevalence as the main predictor variable. We then conducted meta-analyses of the regression coefficients to generate pooled estimates of the association between diarrhea prevalence and cognition whilst controlling for anthropometric status and other covariates.

Results

Diarrhea was not a significant predictor of cognitive score in any site in the regression models or in the meta-analyses (Coefficient = 0.07; 95% CI: −0.1, 0.2). The length for age Z- score was negatively related to cognition in all sites (0.18; 95% CI: 0.14, 0.21), with coefficients remarkably similar across sites (Coefficient Range: 0.168–0.186).

Conclusions

We did not demonstrate an association between diarrhea and cognition with stunting included in the model. The links between diarrhea, stunting, and cognition provide additional rationale for accelerating interventions to reduce diarrhea.

Production of official statistics frequently requires expert judgement to evaluate and reconcile data of unknown and varying quality from multiple and potentially conflicting sources. Moreover, exceptional events may be difficult to incorporate in modelled estimates. Computational logic provides a methodology and tools for incorporating analyst's judgement, integrating multiple data sources and modelling methods, ensuring transparency and replicability, and making documentation computationally accessible. Representations using computational logic can be implemented in a variety of computer-based languages for automated production. Computational logic complements standard mathematical and statistical techniques and extends the flexibility of mathematical and statistical modelling. A basic overview of computational logic is presented and its application to official statistics is illustrated with the WHO & UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage.

We analyzed the business reopening process in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, which hit the region on August 29, 2005, to better understand what the major predictors were and how their impacts changed through time. A telephone survey of businesses in New Orleans was conducted in October 2007, 26 months after Hurricane Katrina. The data were analyzed using a modified spatial probit regression model to evaluate the importance of each predictor variable through time. The results suggest that the two most important reopening predictors throughout all time periods were the flood depth at the business location and business size as represented by its wages in a logarithmic form. Flood depth was a significant negative predictor and had the largest marginal effects on the reopening probabilities. Smaller businesses had lower reopening probabilities than larger ones. However, the nonlinear response of business size to the reopening probability suggests that recovery aid would be most effective for smaller businesses than for larger ones. The spatial spillovers effect was a significant positive predictor but only for the first nine months. The findings show clearly that flood protection is the overarching issue for New Orleans. A flood protection plan that reduces the vulnerability and length of flooding would be the first and foremost step to mitigate the negative effects from climate-related hazards and enable speedy recovery. The findings cast doubt on the current coastal protection efforts and add to the current debate of whether coastal Louisiana will be sustainable or too costly to protect from further land loss and flooding given the threat of sea-level rise. Finally, a plan to help small businesses to return would also be an effective strategy for recovery, and the temporal window of opportunity that generates the greatest impacts would be the first 6∼9 months after the disaster.

Background

Health communication campaigns – involving mass media and interpersonal communication - have long been utilized by national family planning programs to create awareness about contraceptive methods, to shift social norms related to fertility control, and to promote specific behaviors, such as the use of condoms, injectable methods or permanent sterilization. However, demonstrating the effectiveness of these campaigns is often complicated because the infeasibility of experimental designs generally yields statistically non-equivalent samples of campaign-exposed and unexposed individuals.

Methods

Using data from a panel survey of reproductive age women in Egypt, we estimate the effects of the multimedia health communication campaign “Your Health, Your Wealth” (“Sahatek Sarwetek”) on precursors to contraceptive use (e.g., spousal communication, birth spacing attitudes) and on modern contraceptive use. Difference-in-differences and fixed effects estimators that exploit the panel nature of the data are employed to control for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in the sample of women who self-report recall of the messages, thereby potentially improving upon methods that make no such controls or that rely solely on cross-sectional data.

Findings

All of the estimators find positive effects of the “Your Health, Your Wealth” campaign on reproductive health outcomes, though the magnitudes of those effects diverge, often considerably. Difference-in-differences estimators find that exposure to the campaign increases the likelihood of spousal discussions by 14.4 percentage points (pp.) (SE = .039, p<0.001) but has no effect on contraceptive use. In contrast, the fixed effects, instrumental variables estimator, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, finds a large, statistically significant effect on modern contraceptive use (27.4 pp., SE = 0.135, p = 0.043).

Conclusions

The difficulties of evaluating family planning communication programs may be surmountable using panel data and analytic methods that address both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in exposure. Not controlling for such effects may lead to substantial underestimates of the effectiveness of such campaigns.

Human antibody (Ab) response to Anopheles whole saliva, used as biomarker of Anopheles exposure, was investigated over a period of two years (2008–2009), in children between 2 to 9 years old, before and after the introduction of three different malaria vector control methods; deltamethrin treated long lasting impregnated nets (LLIN) and insecticide treated plastic sheeting (ITPS) - Zero Fly®) (ITPS-ZF), deltamethrin impregnated Durable (Wall) Lining (ITPS-DL – Zerovector®) alone, and indoor residual spraying (IRS) with lambdacyhalothrin alone. These different vector control methods resulted in considerable decreases in all three entomological (82.4%), parasitological (54.8%) and immunological criteria analyzed. The highest reductions in the number of Anopheles collected and number of positive blood smears, respectively 82.1% and 58.3%, were found in Capango and Canjala where LLIN and ITPS-ZF were implemented. The immunological data based on the level of anti-saliva IgG Ab in children of all villages dropped significantly from 2008 to 2009, except in Chissequele. These results indicated that these three vector control methods significantly reduced malaria infections amongst the children studied and IRS significantly reduced the human-Anopheles contact. The number of Anopheles, positive blood smears, and the levels of anti-saliva IgG Ab were most reduced when LLIN and ITPS-ZF were used in combination, compared to the use of one vector control method alone, either ITPS-DL or IRS. Therefore, as a combination of two vector control methods is significantly more effective than one control method only, this control strategy should be further developed at a more global scale.

Background

Patent medicine vendors (PMV) provide antimalarial treatment and care throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, and can play an important role in the fight against malaria. Their close-to-client infrastructure could enable lifesaving artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) to reach patients in time. However, systematic assessments of drug sellers’ performance quality are crucial if their role is to be managed within the health system. Lot quality assurance sampling (LQAS) could be an efficient method to monitor and evaluate PMV practice, but has so far never been used for this purpose.

Methods

In support of the Nigeria Malaria Booster Program we assessed PMV practices in three Senatorial Districts (SDs) of Jigawa, Nigeria. A two-stage LQAS assessed whether at least 80% of PMV stores in SDs used national treatment guidelines. Acceptable sampling errors were set in consultation with government officials (alpha and beta <0.10). The hypergeometric formula determined sample sizes and cut-off values for SDs. A structured assessment tool identified high and low performing SDs for quality of care indicators.

Findings

Drug vendors performed poorly in all SDs of Jigawa for all indicators. For example, all SDs failed for stocking and selling first-line antimalarials. PMV sold no longer recommended antimalarials, such as Chloroquine, Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine and oral Artesunate monotherapy. Most PMV were ignorant of and lacked training about new treatment guidelines that had endorsed ACTs as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria.

Conclusion

There is urgent need to regularly monitor and improve the availability and quality of malaria treatment provided by medicine sellers in Nigeria; the irrational use of antimalarials in the ACT era revealed in this study bears a high risk of economic loss, death and development of drug resistance. LQAS has been shown to be a suitable method for monitoring malaria-related indicators among PMV, and should be applied in Nigeria and elsewhere to improve service delivery.

Background

This paper presents results from an evaluation of the effect of a community health worker (CHW) –based, interpersonal communication campaign (IPC) for increasing insecticide-treated mosquito net (ITN) use among children in Luangwa District, Zambia, an area with near universal coverage of ITNs and moderate to low malaria parasite prevalence.

Methods

A quasi-experimental community randomized control trial was conducted from 2008 to 2010. CHWs were the unit of randomization. Cross-sectional data were collected from houses in both 2008 and 2010 using simple random sampling of a complete household enumeration of the district. A difference-in -differences approach was used to analyse the data.

Results

ITN use among children <5 years old in households with ≥1 ITN increased overall from 54% in 2008 to 81% in 2010 (χ2 = 96.3, p <0.01); however, there was no difference in increase between the treatment and control arms in 2010 (p >0.05). ITN use also increased among children five to 14 years old from 37% in 2008 to 68% in 2010. There was no indication that the CHW-based intervention activities had a significant effect on increasing ITN use in this context, over and above what is already being done to disseminate information on the importance of using an ITN to prevent malaria infection.

Discussion

ITN use increased dramatically in the district between 2008 and 2010. It is likely that IPC activities in general may have contributed to the observed increase in ITN use, as the increased observed in this study was far higher than the increase observed between 2008 and 2010 malaria indicator survey (MIS) estimates. Contamination across control communities, coupled with linear settlement patterns and subsequent behavioural norms related to communication in the area, likely contributed to the observed increase in net use and null effect in this study.

The National Malaria Control Center of Zambia introduced rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) to detect Plasmodium falciparum as a pilot in some districts in 2005 and 2006; scale up at a national level was achieved in 2009. Data on RDT use, drug consumption, and diagnostic results were collected in three Zambian health districts to determine the impact RDTs had on malaria case management over the period 2004–2009. Reductions were seen in malaria diagnosis and antimalarial drug prescription (66.1 treatments per facility-month (95% confidence interval [CI] = 44.7–87.4) versus 26.6 treatments per facility-month (95% CI = 11.8–41.4)) pre- and post-RDT introduction. Results varied between districts, with significant reductions in low transmission areas but none in high areas. Rapid diagnostic tests may contribute to rationalization of treatment of febrile illness and reduce antimalarial drug consumption in Africa; however, their impact may be greater in lower transmission areas. National scale data will be necessary to confirm these findings.

Background

Early access to tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment remains a challenge in developing countries. General use of informal providers such as storekeepers is common. The aim of this study was to determine the effectiveness and acceptability of a storekeeper-based referral system for TB suspects in urban settings of Lilongwe, Malawi.

Methods

The referral system intervention was implemented in two sub-districts. This was evaluated using a pre and post comparison as well as comparison with a third sub-district designated as the control. The intervention included training of storekeepers to detect and refer clients with chronic cough using predesigned referral letters along with monitoring and supervision. Data from a community based chronic cough survey and an audit of health centre records were used to measure its effectiveness. Focus group discussions and in-depth interviews were carried out to document acceptability of the intervention with the different stakeholders.

Results

Following the intervention, the mean patient delay appeared lower in the intervention than comparison areas (2.14 weeks (SD 5.8) vs 8.8 weeks (SD 15.1)). However, after adjusting for confounding variables this difference was not significant (p = 0.07). After the intervention the proportion of the population diagnosed with smear positive TB in the intervention sites (1.2 per 1000) was significantly higher than in the comparison area (0.6 per 1000, p<0.01) even after adjusting for sex and age. Qualitative findings suggested that (a) the referral letters triggered health workers to ask patients to submit sputum for TB diagnosis (b) the approach may be sustainable as the referral role was linked to the livelihood of the storekeepers.

Conclusion

The study suggests that the referral system with storekeepers is sustainable and effective in increasing smear positive TB case notification. Studies that assess this approach for control of other diseases along with collection of specimens by storekeepers or similar providers are needed.

As some malaria control programs shift focus from disease control to transmission reduction, there is a need for transmission data to monitor progress. At lower levels of transmission, it becomes increasingly more difficult to measure precisely, for example through entomological studies. Many programs conduct regular cross sectional parasite prevalence surveys, and have access to malaria treatment data routinely collected by ministries of health, often in health management information systems. However, by themselves, these data are poor measures of transmission. In this paper, we propose an approach for combining annual parasite incidence and treatment data with cross-sectional parasite prevalence and treatment seeking survey data to estimate the incidence of new infections in the human population, also known as the force of infection. The approach is based on extension of a reversible catalytic model. The accuracy of the estimates from this model appears to be highly dependent on levels of detectability and treatment in the community, indicating the importance of information on private sector treatment seeking and access to effective and appropriate treatment.

Background

Longitudinal studies of HIV-1-infected individuals or those at risk of infection are subject to missed study visits that may have negative consequences on the care of participants and can jeopardize study validity due to bias and loss of statistical power. Distance between participant residence and study clinic, as well as other socioeconomic and demographic factors, may contribute to interruptions in patient follow-up.

Methods

HIV-1-serodiscordant couples were enrolled between May 2007 and October 2009 and followed for two years in Nairobi, Kenya. At baseline, demographic and home location information was collected and linear distance from each participant’s home to the study clinic was determined. Participants were asked to return to the study clinic for quarterly visits, with follow-up interruptions (FUI) defined as missing two consecutive visits. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess crude and adjusted associations between FUI and home-to-clinic distance, and other baseline characteristics.

Results

Of 469 enrolled couples, 64% had a female HIV-1-infected partner. Overall incidence of FUI was 13.4 per 100 person-years (PY), with lower incidence of FUI in HIV-1-infected (10.8 per 100 PY) versus -uninfected individuals (16.1 per 100 PY) (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.50, 0.88). Among HIV-1-infected participants, those living between 5 and 10 kilometers (km) from the study clinic had a two-fold increased rate of FUI compared to those living <5 km away (HR = 2.17; 95% CI: 1.09, 4.34). Other factors associated with FUI included paying higher rent (HR = 1.67; 95% CI: 1.05, 2.65), having at least primary school education (HR = 1.96; 95% CI: 1.02, 3.70), and increased HIV-1 viral load (HR = 1.23 per log10 increase; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.51).

Conclusions

Home-to-clinic distance, indicators of socioeconomic status, and markers of disease progression may affect compliance with study follow-up schedules. Retention strategies should focus on participants at greatest risk of FUI to ensure study validity.

The aminopeptidase P (PepP, EC 3.4.11.9) gene from Lactococcus lactis ssp. lactis DSM 20481 was cloned, sequenced and expressed recombinantly in E. coli BL21 (DE3) for the first time. PepP is involved in the hydrolysis of proline-rich proteins and, thus, is important for the debittering of protein hydrolysates. For accurate determination of PepP activity, a novel gas chromatographic assay was established. The release of L-leucine during the hydrolysis of L-leucine-L-proline-L-proline (LPP) was examined for determination of PepP activity. Sufficient recombinant PepP production was achieved via bioreactor cultivation at 16 °C, resulting in PepP activity of 90 μkatLPP Lculture-1. After automated chromatographic purification by His-tag affinity chromatography followed by desalting, PepP activity of 73.8 μkatLPP Lculture-1 was achieved. This was approximately 700-fold higher compared to the purified native PepP produced by Lactococcus lactis ssp. lactis NCDO 763 as described in literature. The molecular weight of PepP was estimated to be ~ 40 kDa via native-PAGE together with a newly developed activity staining method and by SDS-PAGE. Furthermore, the kinetic parameters Km and Vmax were determined for PepP using three different tripeptide substrates. The purified enzyme showed a pH optimum between 7.0 and 7.5, was most active between 50°C and 60°C and exhibited reasonable stability at 0°C, 20°C and 37°C over 15 days. PepP activity could be increased 6-fold using 8.92 mM MnCl2 and was inhibited by 1,10-phenanthroline and EDTA.

Objective

To evaluate the association between proximity to a health center and early childhood mortality in Madagascar, and to assess the influence of household wealth, maternal educational attainment, and maternal health on the effects of distance.

Methods

From birth records of subjects in the Demographic and Health Survey, we identified 12565 singleton births from January 2004 to August 2009. After excluding 220 births that lacked global positioning system information for exposure assessment, odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for neonatal mortality and infant mortality were estimated using multilevel logistic regression models, with 12345 subjects (level 1), nested within 584 village locations (level 2), and in turn nested within 22 regions (level 3). We additionally stratified the subjects by the birth order. We estimated predicted probabilities of each outcome by a three-level model including cross-level interactions between proximity to a health center and household wealth, maternal educational attainment, and maternal anemia.

Results

Compared with those who lived >1.5–3.0 km from a health center, the risks for neonatal mortality and infant mortality tended to increase among those who lived further than 5.0 km from a health center; the adjusted ORs for neonatal mortality and infant mortality for those who lived >5.0–10.0 km away from a health center were 1.36 (95% CI: 0.92–2.01) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.06–1.90), respectively. The positive associations were more pronounced among the second or later child. The distance effects were not modified by household wealth status, maternal educational attainment, or maternal health status.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that distance from a health center is a risk factor for early childhood mortality (primarily, infant mortality) in Madagascar by using a large-scale nationally representative dataset. The accessibility to health care in remote areas would be a key factor to achieve better infant health.

Background

In November 2010, Sierra Leone distributed over three million long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) with the objective of providing protection from malaria to individuals in all households in the country.

Methods

We conducted a nationally representative survey six months after the mass distribution campaign to evaluate its impact on household insecticide-treated net (ITN) ownership and use. We examined factors associated with household ITN possession and use with logistic regression models.

Results

The survey included 4,620 households with equal representation in each of the 14 districts. Six months after the campaign, 87.6% of households own at least one ITN, which represents an increase of 137% over the most recent estimate of 37% in 2008. Thirty-six percent of households possess at least one ITN per two household members; rural households were more likely than urban households to have ≥1∶2 ITN to household members, but there was no difference by socio-economic status or household head education. Among individuals in households possessing ≥1 ITN, 76.5% slept under an ITN the night preceding the survey. Individuals in households where the household head had heard malaria messaging, had correct knowledge of malaria transmission, and where at least one ITN was hanging, were more likely to have slept under an ITN.

Conclusions

The mass distribution campaign was effective at achieving high coverage levels across the population, notably so among rural households where the malaria burden is higher. These important gains in equitable access to malaria prevention will need to be maintained to produce long-term reductions in the malaria burden.

Background

Multiple interventions have been launched to improve the quality, access, and utilization of primary health care in rural, low-income settings; however, the success of these interventions varies substantially, even within single studies where the measured impact of interventions differs across sites, centers, and regions. Accordingly, we sought to examine the variation in impact of a health systems strengthening intervention and understand factors that might explain the variation in impact across primary health care units.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a mixed methods positive deviance study of 20 Primary Health Care Units (PHCUs) in rural Ethiopia. Using longitudinal data from the Ethiopia Millennium Rural Initiative (EMRI), we identified PHCUs with consistently higher performance (n = 2), most improved performance (n = 3), or consistently lower performance (n = 2) in the provision of antenatal care, HIV testing in antenatal care, and skilled birth attendance rates. Using data from site visits and in-depth interviews (n = 51), we applied the constant comparative method of qualitative data analysis to identify key themes that distinguished PHCUs with different performance trajectories. Key themes that distinguished PHCUs were 1) managerial problem solving capacity, 2) relationship with the woreda (district) health office, and 3) community engagement. In higher performing PHCUs and those with the greatest improvement after the EMRI intervention, health center and health post staff were more able to solve day-to-day problems, staff had better relationships with the woreda health official, and PHCU communities' leadership, particularly religious leadership, were strongly engaged with the health improvement effort. Distance from the nearest city, quality of roads and transportation, and cultural norms did not differ substantially among PHCUs.

Conclusions/Significance

Effective health strengthening efforts may require intensive development of managerial problem solving skills, strong relationships with government offices that oversee front-line providers, and committed community leadership to succeed.

Background

Funding from external agencies for malaria control in Africa has increased dramatically over the past decade resulting in substantial increases in population coverage by effective malaria prevention interventions. This unprecedented effort to scale-up malaria interventions is likely improving child survival and will likely contribute to meeting Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to reduce the < 5 mortality rate by two thirds between 1990 and 2015.

Methods

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was used to quantify the likely impact that malaria prevention intervention scale-up has had on malaria mortality over the past decade (2001-2010) across 43 malaria endemic countries in sub-Saharan African. The likely impact of ITNs and malaria prevention interventions in pregnancy (intermittent preventive treatment [IPTp] and ITNs used during pregnancy) over this period was assessed.

Results

The LiST model conservatively estimates that malaria prevention intervention scale-up over the past decade has prevented 842,800 (uncertainty: 562,800-1,364,645) child deaths due to malaria across 43 malaria-endemic countries in Africa, compared to a baseline of the year 2000. Over the entire decade, this represents an 8.2% decrease in the number of malaria-caused child deaths that would have occurred over this period had malaria prevention coverage remained unchanged since 2000. The biggest impact occurred in 2010 with a 24.4% decrease in malaria-caused child deaths compared to what would have happened had malaria prevention interventions not been scaled-up beyond 2000 coverage levels. ITNs accounted for 99% of the lives saved.

Conclusions

The results suggest that funding for malaria prevention in Africa over the past decade has had a substantial impact on decreasing child deaths due to malaria. Rapidly achieving and then maintaining universal coverage of these interventions should be an urgent priority for malaria control programmes in the future. Successful scale-up in many African countries will likely contribute substantially to meeting MDG 4, as well as succeed in meeting MDG 6 (Target 1) to halt and reverse malaria incidence by 2015.

Thomas Eisele and Richard Steketee discuss new research in PLoS Medicine by Stephen Lim and colleagues that examined the association of insecticide-treated nets with the reduction of P. falciparum prevalence in children under 5 and all-cause post-neonatal mortality.

Background

The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model was developed to estimate the impact of the scale-up of child survival interventions on child mortality. New advances in antimalarials have improved their efficacy of treating uncomplicated and severe malaria. Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria and parenteral or rectal artemisinin or quinine for severe malaria syndromes have been shown to be very effective for the treatment of malaria in children. These interventions are now being considered for inclusion in the LiST model. However, for obvious ethical reasons, their protective efficacy (PE) compared to placebo is unknown and their impact on reducing malaria-attributable mortality has not been quantified.

Methods

We performed systematic literature reviews of published studies in P. falciparum endemic settings to determine the protective efficacy (PE) of ACT treatment against malaria deaths among children with uncomplicated malaria, as well as the PE of effective case management including parenteral quinine against malaria deaths among all hospitalized children. As no randomized placebo-controlled trials of malaria treatment have been conducted, we used multiple data sources to ascertain estimates of PE, including a previously performed Delphi estimate for treatment of uncomplicated malaria.

Results

Based on multiple data sources, we estimate the PE of ACT treatment of uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria on reducing malaria mortality in children 1–23 months to be 99% (range: 94-100%), and in children 24-59 months to be 97% (range: 86-99%). We estimate the PE of treatment of severe P. falciparum malaria with effective case management including intravenous quinine on reducing malaria mortality in children 1-59 months to be 82% (range: 63-94%) compared to no treatment.

Conclusions

This systematic review quantifies the PE of ACT used for treating uncomplicated malaria and effective case management including parenteral quinine for treating severe P. falciparum malaria for preventing malaria mortality in children <5. These data will be used in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model for estimating the impact of scaling-up these interventions against malaria. However, in order to estimate the reduction in child mortality due to scale-up of these interventions, it is imperative to develop standardized indicators to measure population coverage of these interventions.

Background

Zinc deficiency is commonly prevalent in children in developing countries and plays a role in decreased immunity and increased risk of infection. Preventive zinc supplementation in healthy children can reduce mortality due to common causes like diarrhea, pneumonia and malaria. The main objective was to determine all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in children under five in developing countries for preventive zinc supplementation.

Data sources/ review methods

A literature search was carried out on PubMed, the Cochrane Library and the WHO regional databases to identify RCTs on zinc supplementation for greater than 3 months in children less than 5 years of age in developing countries and its effect on mortality was analyzed.

Results

The effect of preventive zinc supplementation on mortality was given in eight trials, while cause specific mortality data was given in five of these eight trials. Zinc supplementation alone was associated with a statistically insignificant 9% (RR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.82, 1.01) reduction in all cause mortality in the intervention group as compared to controls using a random effect model. The impact on diarrhea-specific mortality of zinc alone was a non-significant 18% reduction (RR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.64, 1.05) and 15% for pneumonia-specific mortality (RR = 0.85; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.11). The incidence of diarrhea showed a 13% reduction with preventive zinc supplementation (RR = 0.87; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.94) and a 19% reduction in pneumonia morbidity (RR = 0.81; 95% CI: 0.73, 0.90). Keeping in mind the direction of effect of zinc supplementation in reducing diarrhea and pneumonia related morbidity and mortality; we considered all the outcomes for selection of effectiveness estimate for inclusion in the LiST model. After application of the CHERG rules with consideration to quality of evidence and rule # 6, we used the most conservative estimates as a surrogate for mortality. We, therefore, conclude that zinc supplementation in children is associated with a reduction in diarrhea mortality of 13% and pneumonia mortality of 15% for inclusion in the LiST tool. Preventive zinc supplementation had no effect on malaria specific mortality (RR = 0.90; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.06) or incidence of malaria (RR=0.92; 95 % CI 0.82-1.04)

Conclusion

Zinc supplementation results in reductions in diarrhea and pneumonia mortality.

Background

Infection is a well acknowledged cause of stillbirths and may account for about half of all perinatal deaths today, especially in developing countries. This review presents the impact of interventions targeting various important infections during pregnancy on stillbirth or perinatal mortality.

Methods

We undertook a systematic review including all relevant literature on interventions dealing with infections during pregnancy for assessment of effects on stillbirths or perinatal mortality. The quality of the evidence was assessed using the adapted Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach by Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG). For the outcome of interest, namely stillbirth, we applied the rules developed by CHERG to recommend a final estimate for reduction in stillbirth for input to the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) model.

Results

A total of 25 studies were included in the review. A random-effects meta-analysis of observational studies of detection and treatment of syphilis during pregnancy showed a significant 80% reduction in stillbirths [Relative risk (RR) = 0.20; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.12 - 0.34) that is recommended for inclusion in the LiST model. Our meta-analysis showed the malaria prevention interventions i.e. intermittent preventive treatment (IPTp) and insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) can reduce stillbirths by 22%, however results were not statistically significant (RR = 0.78; 95% CI: 0.59 – 1.03). For human immunodeficiency virus infection, a pooled analysis of 6 radomized controlled trials (RCTs) failed to show a statistically significant reduction in stillbirth with the use of antiretroviral in pregnancy compared to placebo (RR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.45 – 1.92). Similarly, pooled analysis combining four studies for the treatment of bacterial vaginosis (3 for oral and 1 for vaginal antibiotic) failed to yield a significant impact on perinatal mortality (OR = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.50 – 1.55).

Conclusions

The clearest evidence of impact in stillbirth reduction was found for adequate prevention and treatment of syphilis infection and possibly malaria. At present, large gaps exist in the growing list of stillbirth risk factors, especially those that are infection related. Potential causes of stillbirths including HIV and TORCH infections need to be investigated further to help establish the role of prevention/treatment and its subsequent impact on stillbirth reduction.