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1.  Epidemiology of vaccine hesitancy in the United States 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2013;9(12):2643-2648.
Vaccines are among the most effective public health interventions against infectious diseases. However, there is evidence in the United States for parents either delaying or refusing recommended childhood vaccination. Exemptions to school immunization laws and use of alternative schedule from those recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and the American Academy of Pediatrics cannot only increase the risk of children contracting vaccine-preventable diseases but also increases the risk of infecting others who are either too young to be vaccinated, cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons or did not develop a sufficient immunological response to the vaccine. Healthcare providers are cited as the most influential source by parents on vaccine decision-making. Vaccine hesitancy needs to be addressed by healthcare providers and the scientific community by listening to the parental concerns and discussing risks associated with either delaying or refusing vaccines.
doi:10.4161/hv.27243
PMCID: PMC4162046  PMID: 24247148
vaccines; vaccine hesitancy; immunizations; exemptions; parent beliefs; attitudes
2.  Comparison of impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus supplementary and routine immunization in a complex humanitarian emergency, Somali case study 
Background
A humanitarian emergency involves a complete breakdown of authority that often disrupts routine health care delivery, including immunization. Diarrheal diseases are a principal cause of morbidity and mortality among children during humanitarian emergencies. The objective of this study was to assess if vaccination against rotavirus, the most common cause of severe diarrhea among children, either as an addition to routine immunization program (RI) or supplemental immunization activity (SIA) would be cost-effective during a humanitarian emergency to decrease diarrhea morbidity and mortality, using Somalia as a case study.
Methods
An impact and cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing no vaccine; two-dose rotavirus SIA and two-dose of RI for the 424,592 births in the 2012 Somali cohort. The main summary measure was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Univariate sensitivity analysis examined the extent to which the uncertainty in the variables affected estimates.
Results
If introduced in Somalia, a full-series rotavirus RI and SIA would save 908 and 359 lives, respectively, and save US$63,793 and US$25,246 in direct medical costs, respectively. The cost of a RI strategy would be US$309,458. Because of the high operational costs, a SIA strategy would cost US$715,713. US$5.30 per DALY would be averted for RI and US$37.62 per DALY averted for SIA. Variables that most substantially influenced the cost-effectiveness for both RI and SIA were vaccine program costs, mortality rate, and vaccine effectiveness against death.
Conclusions
Based on our model, rotavirus vaccination appears to be a cost-effective intervention as either RI or SIA, as defined by the World Health Organization as one to three times the per capita Gross Domestic Product (Somalia $112 in 2011). RI would have greater health impact and is more cost effective than SIA, assuming feasibility of reaching the target population. However, given the lack of infrastructure, whether RI is realistic in this setting remains unanswered, and alternative approaches like SIA should be further examined.
doi:10.1186/s13031-015-0032-y
PMCID: PMC4331177
Rotavirus vaccine; Humanitarian emergency; Somalia; Cost-effectiveness; Routine immunization
3.  Changes in Immunization Program Managers' Perceptions of Programs' Functional Capabilities During and After Vaccine Shortages and pH1N1 
Public Health Reports  2014;129(Suppl 4):42-48.
Objectives
We surveyed U.S. immunization program managers (IPMs) as part of a project to improve public health preparedness against future emergencies by leveraging the immunization system. We examined immunization program policy and Immunization Information System (IIS) functionality changes as a result of the Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) vaccine shortage and pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1). Evaluating changes in immunization program functionalities and policies following emergency response situations will assist in planning for future vaccine-related emergencies.
Methods
We administered three consecutive surveys to IPMs from 64 state, city, and territorial jurisdictions in 2009, 2010, and 2012. We compared IPMs' responses across either two or three years (e.g., changes in response or consistent responses across years) using McNemar's test.
Results
Immunization programs maintained increases in functionality related to communication systems with health-care providers during this period. Immunization programs often did not maintain changes to IIS functionalities made from 2009 to 2010 (e.g., identifying high-risk and priority populations, tracking adverse events, and mapping disease risk) in the post-pandemic period (2010–2012). About half of IPMs reporting additional IIS functionality in identifying high-risk populations from 2009 to 2010 reported no longer having this function in 2012. There was an 18% decline in respondents reporting geographic information systems risk-mapping capability in IIS from 2010 to 2012.
Conclusions
Because of the Hib vaccine shortage and pH1N1, immunization program needs and efforts changed to address evolving situations. The lack of sustained increases in resources or system functions after the pandemic highlights the need for comprehensive, sustainable public health emergency preparedness systems and related resources.
PMCID: PMC4187306  PMID: 25355974
4.  Perspectives of Immunization Program Managers on 2009-10 H1N1 Vaccination in the United States: A National Survey 
Abstract
In June and July 2010, we conducted a national internet-based survey of 64 city, state, and territorial immunization program managers (IPMs) to assess their experiences in managing the 2009-10 H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign. Fifty-four (84%) of the managers or individuals responsible for an immunization program responded to the survey. To manage the campaign, 76% indicated their health department activated an incident command system (ICS) and 49% used an emergency operations center (EOC). Forty percent indicated they shared the leadership of the campaign with their state-level emergency preparedness program. The managers' perceptions of the helpfulness of the emergency preparedness staff was higher when they had collaborated with the emergency preparedness program on actual or simulated mass vaccination events within the previous 2 years. Fifty-seven percent found their pandemic influenza plan helpful, and those programs that mandated that vaccine providers enter data into their jurisdiction's immunization information system (IIS) were more likely than those who did not mandate data entry to rate their IIS as valuable for facilitating registration of nontraditional providers (42% vs. 25%, p<0.05) and tracking recalled influenza vaccine (50% vs. 38%, p<0.05). Results suggest that ICS and EOC structures, pandemic influenza plans, collaborations with emergency preparedness partners during nonemergencies, and expanded use of IIS can enhance immunization programs' ability to successfully manage a large-scale vaccination campaign. Maintaining the close working relationships developed between state-level immunization and emergency preparedness programs during the H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign will be especially important as states prepare for budget cuts in the coming years.
The authors conducted a study of state and local immunization program managers to assess their experiences in managing the 2009-10 H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign. Results suggest that incident command and emergency operations center structures, pandemic influenza plans, collaborations with emergency preparedness partners during nonemergencies, and expanded use of immunization information systems are important in successfully managing a large-scale vaccination campaign.
doi:10.1089/bsp.2011.0077
PMCID: PMC3316479  PMID: 22360580
5.  Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Kassebaum, Nicholas J | Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia | Coggeshall, Megan S | Shackelford, Katya A | Steiner, Caitlyn | Heuton, Kyle R | Gonzalez-Medina, Diego | Barber, Ryan | Huynh, Chantal | Dicker, Daniel | Templin, Tara | Wolock, Timothy M | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abd-Allah, Foad | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie E | Akena, Dickens | Alasfoor, Deena | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alla, François | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad A | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Antonio, Carl A T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asad, Majed Masoud | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Basu, Arindam | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku J | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Breitborde, Nicholas | Cárdenas, Rosario | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Chang, Jung-Chen | Che, Xuan | Christophi, Costas A | Chugh, Sumeet S | Cirillo, Massimo | Colquhoun, Samantha M | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | da Costa Leite, Iuri | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Degenhardt, Louisa | De Leo, Diego | del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Dessalegn, Muluken | deVeber, Gabrielle A | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Dorrington, Rob E | Driscoll, Tim R | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Felicio, Manuela Mendonca | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | França, Elisabeth B | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gambashidze, Ketevan | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gibney, Katherine B | Giroud, Maurice | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | González-Castell, Dinorah | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Gupta, Rajeev | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Heredia Pi, Ileana B | Hoek, Hans W | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Husseini, Abdullatif | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Inoue, Manami | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jahangir, Eiman | Jee, Sun Ha | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kan, Haidong | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazanjan, Konstantin | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kwan, Gene | Lai, Taavi | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lam, Hilton | Lansingh, Van C | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Xiaohong | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | Liang, Juan | Liang, Xiaofeng | Lim, Stephen S | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | London, Stephanie J | Lotufo, Paulo A | Ma, Jixiang | Ma, Stefan | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Mainoo, Nana Kwaku | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan | Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez | Moore, Ami R | Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar | Mori, Rintaro | Mueller, Ulrich O | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Nand, Devina | Nangia, Vinay | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Park, Jae-Hyun | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Poenaru, Dan | Polanczyk, Guilherme V | Polinder, Suzanne | Pope, Dan | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Refaat, Amany | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sánchez Pimienta, Tania Georgina | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Sayinzoga, Felix | Schneider, Ione J C | Schumacher, Austin | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Shakh-Nazarova, Marina | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Sturua, Lela | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tan, Feng | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Tirschwell, David L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Tran, Bach X | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Undurraga, Eduardo A | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | van Gool, Coen H | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vavilala, Monica S | Venketasubramanian, N | Villalpando, Salvador | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wang, Haidong | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa Z | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El SayedZaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Naghavi, Mohsen | Murray, Christopher J L | Lozano, Rafael
Lancet  2014;384(9947):980-1004.
Summary
Background
The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.
Methods
We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
Findings
292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (−1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (−3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland.
Interpretation
Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6
PMCID: PMC4255481  PMID: 24797575
6.  Influenza vaccination acceptance among diverse pregnant women and its impact on infant immunization 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2013;9(12):2591-2602.
Objective: We examined pregnant women’s likelihood of vaccinating their infants against seasonal influenza via a randomized message framing study. Using Prospect Theory, we tested gain- and loss-frame message effects and demographic and psychosocial correlates of influenza immunization intention. We also explored interactions among pregnant women who viewed “Contagion” to understand cultural influences on message perception.
Methods: Pregnant women ages 18–50 participated in a randomized message framing study from September 2011 through May 2012 that included exposure to intervention or control messages, coupled with questionnaire completion. Venue-based sampling was used to recruit racial and ethnic minority female participants at locations throughout Atlanta, Georgia. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate key outcomes.
Results: The study population (n = 261) included many lower income (≤ $20 000/yearly household earnings) pregnant participants (69.2%, n = 171) inclusive of Black/African Americans (88.5%, n = 230), Hispanic/Latinas (7.3%, n = 19), and Other/Multicultural women (4.2%, n = 11). Both gain [OR = 2.13, 90% CI: (1.120, 4.048)] and loss-frame messages [OR = 2.02, 90% CI: (1.083, 3.787)] were significantly associated with infant influenza vaccination intention compared with the control condition. Intention to immunize against influenza during pregnancy had a strong effect on intent to immunize infants [OR = 10.83, 90%CI: (4.923, 23.825)]. Those who had seen the feature film “Contagion” (n = 54, 20.69%) viewed gain- and loss-framed messages as appealing (x2 = 6.03, p = 0.05), novel (x2 = 6.24, p = 0.03), and easy to remember (x2 = 16.33, P = 0.0003).
Conclusions: In this population, both gain- and loss-framed messages were positively associated with increased maternal intent to immunize infants against influenza. Message resonance was enhanced among those who saw the film “Contagion.” Additionally, history of immunization was strongly associated with infant immunization intention.
doi:10.4161/hv.26993
PMCID: PMC4162045  PMID: 24172064
message framing; prospect theory; influenza vaccination; immunization coverage; pregnant women; racial/ethnic minorities; contagion
7.  Parents' Source of Vaccine Information and Impact on Vaccine Attitudes, Beliefs, and Nonmedical Exemptions 
In recent years, use of the Internet to obtain vaccine information has increased. Historical data are necessary to evaluate current vaccine information seeking trends in context. Between 2002 and 2003, surveys were mailed to 1,630 parents of fully vaccinated children and 815 parents of children with at least one vaccine exemption; 56.1% responded. Respondents were asked about their vaccine information sources, perceptions of these sources accuracy, and their beliefs about vaccination. Parents who did not view their child's healthcare provider as a reliable vaccine information source were more likely to obtain vaccine information using the Internet. Parents who were younger, more highly educated, and opposed to school immunization requirements were more likely than their counterparts to use the Internet for vaccine information. Compared to parents who did not use the Internet for vaccine information, those who sought vaccine information on the Internet were more likely to have lower perceptions of vaccine safety (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18–2.35), vaccine effectiveness (aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.32–2.53), and disease susceptibility (aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.49–2.90) and were more likely to have a child with a nonmedical exemption (aOR 3.53, 95% CI, 2.61–4.76). These findings provide context to interpret recent vaccine information seeking research.
doi:10.1155/2012/932741
PMCID: PMC3469070  PMID: 23082253
8.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | Lotufo, Paulo A | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Maclachlan, Jennifer H | Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Masci, Joseph R | Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mayosi, Bongani M | Mazorodze, Tasara T | Mckay, Abigail Cecilia | Meaney, Peter A | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Melaku, Yohannes Adama | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | Montico, Marcella | Moore, Ami R | Mori, Rintaro | Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Murthy, Kinnari S | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Naldi, Luigi | Nangia, Vinay | Narayan, K M Venkat | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nowaseb, Vincent | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pervaiz, Aslam | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quezada, Amado D | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad Ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Razavi, Homie | Reilly, Robert Quentin | Remuzzi, Giuseppe | Richardus, Jan Hendrik | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sabin, Nsanzimana | Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Samonte, Genesis May J | Sawhney, Monika | Schneider, Ione J C | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Shivakoti, Rupak | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Simard, Edgar P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soneji, Samir | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Swaminathan, Soumya | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thomson, Alan J | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Traebert, Jefferson | Tran, Bach X | Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | Vasankari, Tommi J | Venketasubramanian, N | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vollset, Stein Emil | Waller, Stephen | Wallin, Mitchell T | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | White, Richard A | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Thomas Neil | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Vos, Theo
Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
Summary
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Findings
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Interpretation
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949
9.  Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Wang, Haidong | Liddell, Chelsea A | Coates, Matthew M | Mooney, Meghan D | Levitz, Carly E | Schumacher, Austin E | Apfel, Henry | Iannarone, Marissa | Phillips, Bryan | Lofgren, Katherine T | Sandar, Logan | Dorrington, Rob E | Rakovac, Ivo | Jacobs, Troy A | Liang, Xiaofeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Yang, Gonghuan | Wang, Yanping | Liu, Shiwei | Li, Yichong | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad AbdulAziz | Alvarez, Elena | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Ammar, Walid | Anwari, Palwasha | Cunningham, Solveig Argeseanu | Asad, Majed Masoud | Assadi, Reza | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Blore, Jed | Basara, Berrak Bora | Boufous, Soufiane | Breitborde, Nicholas | Bruce, Nigel G | Bui, Linh Ngoc | Carapetis, Jonathan R | Cárdenas, Rosario | Carpenter, David O | Caso, Valeria | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-Lopéz, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Che, Xuan | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chowdhury, Rajiv | Christophi, Costas A | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Cirillo, Massimo | Leite, Iuri da Costa | Courville, Karen J | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Deribe, Kebede | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dherani, Mukesh K | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Edmond, Karen M | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Foigt, Nataliya | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Green, Mark A | Greenwell, Karen Fern | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Harb, Hilda L | Hay, Simon | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Idrisov, Bulat T | Islami, Farhad | Ismayilova, Samaya | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khang, Young-Ho | Kim, Daniel | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Lai, Taavi | Lan, Qing | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leinsalu, Mall | Lim, Stephen S | Lipshultz, Steven E | Logroscino, Giancarlo | Lotufo, Paulo A | Lunevicius, Raimundas | Lyons, Ronan Anthony | Ma, Stefan | Mahdi, Abbas Ali | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq | Mazorodze, Tasara T | McGrath, John J | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Mensah, George A | Meretoja, Atte | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin | Mokdad, Ali H | Monasta, Lorenzo | Montico, Marcella | Moore, Ami R | Moschandreas, Joanna | Msemburi, William T | Mueller, Ulrich O | Muszynska, Magdalena M | Naghavi, Mohsen | Naidoo, Kovin S | Narayan, KM Venkat | Nejjari, Chakib | Ng, Marie | Ngirabega, Jean de Dieu | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Omer, Saad B | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Wyk, Victoria Pillay-van | Pope, Dan | Prabhakaran, Dorairaj | Rahman, Sajjad UR | Rana, Saleem M | Reilly, Robert Quentin | Rojas-Rueda, David | Ronfani, Luca | Rushton, Lesley | Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya | Salomon, Joshua | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Schmidt, Jürgen C | Nazarova, Marina Shakh | She, Jun | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shishani, Kawkab | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thomson, Alan J | Lyman, Andrew L Thorne | Toyoshima, Hideaki | Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala | Uwaliraye, Parfait | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vollset, Stein Emil | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wan, Xia | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Hywel C | Yang, Yang C | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Younis, Mustafa | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | Zaki, Maysaa El Sayed | Zhu, Shankuan | Lopez, Alan D | Murray, Christopher J L
Lancet  2014;384(9947):957-979.
Summary
Background
Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.
Methods
We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0–6 days), late neonatal (7–28 days), postneonatal (29–364 days), childhood (1–4 years), and under-5 (0–4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.
Findings
We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0–6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1–18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6–177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8–2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000–13 than during 1990–2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.
Interpretation
Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9
PMCID: PMC4165626  PMID: 24797572
10.  A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 
Lim, Stephen S | Vos, Theo | Flaxman, Abraham D | Danaei, Goodarz | Shibuya, Kenji | Adair-Rohani, Heather | Amann, Markus | Anderson, H Ross | Andrews, Kathryn G | Aryee, Martin | Atkinson, Charles | Bacchus, Loraine J | Bahalim, Adil N | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Balmes, John | Barker-Collo, Suzanne | Baxter, Amanda | Bell, Michelle L | Blore, Jed D | Blyth, Fiona | Bonner, Carissa | Borges, Guilherme | Bourne, Rupert | Boussinesq, Michel | Brauer, Michael | Brooks, Peter | Bruce, Nigel G | Brunekreef, Bert | Bryan-Hancock, Claire | Bucello, Chiara | Buchbinder, Rachelle | Bull, Fiona | Burnett, Richard T | Byers, Tim E | Calabria, Bianca | Carapetis, Jonathan | Carnahan, Emily | Chafe, Zoe | Charlson, Fiona | Chen, Honglei | Chen, Jian Shen | Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann | Child, Jennifer Christine | Cohen, Aaron | Colson, K Ellicott | Cowie, Benjamin C | Darby, Sarah | Darling, Susan | Davis, Adrian | Degenhardt, Louisa | Dentener, Frank | Des Jarlais, Don C | Devries, Karen | Dherani, Mukesh | Ding, Eric L | Dorsey, E Ray | Driscoll, Tim | Edmond, Karen | Ali, Suad Eltahir | Engell, Rebecca E | Erwin, Patricia J | Fahimi, Saman | Falder, Gail | Farzadfar, Farshad | Ferrari, Alize | Finucane, Mariel M | Flaxman, Seth | Fowkes, Francis Gerry R | Freedman, Greg | Freeman, Michael K | Gakidou, Emmanuela | Ghosh, Santu | Giovannucci, Edward | Gmel, Gerhard | Graham, Kathryn | Grainger, Rebecca | Grant, Bridget | Gunnell, David | Gutierrez, Hialy R | Hall, Wayne | Hoek, Hans W | Hogan, Anthony | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian | Hu, Howard | Hubbell, Bryan J | Hutchings, Sally J | Ibeanusi, Sydney E | Jacklyn, Gemma L | Jasrasaria, Rashmi | Jonas, Jost B | Kan, Haidong | Kanis, John A | Kassebaum, Nicholas | Kawakami, Norito | Khang, Young-Ho | Khatibzadeh, Shahab | Khoo, Jon-Paul | Kok, Cindy | Laden, Francine | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lan, Qing | Lathlean, Tim | Leasher, Janet L | Leigh, James | Li, Yang | Lin, John Kent | Lipshultz, Steven E | London, Stephanie | Lozano, Rafael | Lu, Yuan | Mak, Joelle | Malekzadeh, Reza | Mallinger, Leslie | Marcenes, Wagner | March, Lyn | Marks, Robin | Martin, Randall | McGale, Paul | McGrath, John | Mehta, Sumi | Mensah, George A | Merriman, Tony R | Micha, Renata | Michaud, Catherine | Mishra, Vinod | Hanafiah, Khayriyyah Mohd | Mokdad, Ali A | Morawska, Lidia | Mozaff arian, Dariush | Murphy, Tasha | Naghavi, Mohsen | Neal, Bruce | Nelson, Paul K | Nolla, Joan Miquel | Norman, Rosana | Olives, Casey | Omer, Saad B | Orchard, Jessica | Osborne, Richard | Ostro, Bart | Page, Andrew | Pandey, Kiran D | Parry, Charles D H | Passmore, Erin | Patra, Jayadeep | Pearce, Neil | Pelizzari, Pamela M | Petzold, Max | Phillips, Michael R | Pope, Dan | Pope III, C Arden | Powles, John | Rao, Mayuree | Razavi, Homie | Rehfuess, Eva A | Rehm, Jürgen T | Ritz, Beate | Rivara, Frederick P | Roberts, Thomas | Robinson, Carolyn | Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A | Romieu, Isabelle | Room, Robin | Rosenfeld, Lisa C | Roy, Ananya | Rushton, Lesley | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Sanchez-Riera, Lidia | Sanman, Ella | Sapkota, Amir | Seedat, Soraya | Shi, Peilin | Shield, Kevin | Shivakoti, Rupak | Singh, Gitanjali M | Sleet, David A | Smith, Emma | Smith, Kirk R | Stapelberg, Nicolas J C | Steenland, Kyle | Stöckl, Heidi | Stovner, Lars Jacob | Straif, Kurt | Straney, Lahn | Thurston, George D | Tran, Jimmy H | Van Dingenen, Rita | van Donkelaar, Aaron | Veerman, J Lennert | Vijayakumar, Lakshmi | Weintraub, Robert | Weissman, Myrna M | White, Richard A | Whiteford, Harvey | Wiersma, Steven T | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Hywel C | Williams, Warwick | Wilson, Nicholas | Woolf, Anthony D | Yip, Paul | Zielinski, Jan M | Lopez, Alan D | Murray, Christopher J L | Ezzati, Majid
Lancet  2012;380(9859):2224-2260.
Summary
Background
Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
Methods
We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.
Findings
In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.
Interpretation
Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8
PMCID: PMC4156511  PMID: 23245609
11.  Pediatricians' perceptions of vaccine effectiveness and safety are significant predictors of vaccine administration in India 
International Health  2013;5(3):205-210.
Background
New vaccine introduction is important to decrease morbidity and mortality in India. The goal of this study was to identify perceptions that are associated with administration of four selected vaccines for prevention of Japanese encephalitis (JE), typhoid fever, influenza and human papillomavirus (HPV) infection.
Methods
A random sample of 785 pediatricians from a national list of Indian Academy of Pediatrics members was selected for a survey to assess perceptions of vaccine effectiveness and safety, and vaccine administration practices. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with selective or routine use.
Results
Pediatricians reported administering typhoid (91.6%), influenza (60.1%), HPV (46.0%) and JE (41.9%) vaccines selectively or routinely. Pediatricians who perceived the vaccine to be safe were significantly more likely to report administration of JE (OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.3), influenza (OR 4.3, 95% CI 2.0 to 9.6) and HPV vaccine (OR 6.2, 95% CI 3.1 to 12.7). Pediatricians who perceived the vaccine to be effective were significantly more likely to report administration of JE (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.6 to 6.5), influenza (OR 7.7, 95% CI 2.5 to 23.1) and HPV vaccine (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.6 to 6.4)
Conclusion
Understanding the role perceptions play provides an opportunity to design strategies to build support for vaccine use.
doi:10.1093/inthealth/iht018
PMCID: PMC4100938  PMID: 24030271
India; Japanese encephalitis vaccine; Typhoid vaccine; Influenza vaccine; Human papillomavirus vaccine
12.  Antibody persistence in mothers one year after pneumococcal immunization in pregnancy 
Vaccine  2012;30(34):5063-5066.
Background
Pneumococcal infections are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, and young infants are particularly vulnerable to infection. Maternal immunization can protect infants, but there are limited data on the duration of pneumococcal vaccine antibody in pregnant women. We report on maternal antibody concentrations one year after immunization with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide (23vPPS) vaccine.
Method
The Mother's Gift study randomly assigned 340 pregnant Bangladeshi mothers between ages 18 and 36 to receive either inactivated influenza vaccine (Fluarix®) or the 23vPPS vaccine (Pneumovax®) during the third trimester. Sera were collected before immunization, at delivery, and at one year post-delivery. We determined anti-capsular IgG antibody to 9 pneumococcal serotypes by a multiplex Luminex ELISA. We report antibody geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) for 9 serotypes, 12 month/delivery geometric mean ratios (GMRs) and proportions seroprotected (>0.35 mcg/mL) in 23vPPS vaccine recipients and controls at delivery and at 12 months.
Results
Among pneumococcal vaccinees, GMCs remained stable, with an overall 12 month/delivery GMR of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.75–0.92). In the control group, GMCs increased with a mean ratio of 1.98 (95% CI, 1.81–2.17; P < 0.0001). GMCs in these vaccinees did not decline significantly in the 12 months after antenatal immunization.
Conclusion
GMCs in these adult vaccinees and controls did not decline significantly in the 12 months after antenatal immunization. Interestingly, mothers who did not receive 23vPPS in pregnancy show a substantial increase of GMC for most serotypes in the first year after immunization. Further studies are needed to determine the need for repeat doses of 23vPPS vaccine in subsequent pregnancies more than a year later.
doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.06.003
PMCID: PMC4133759  PMID: 22709949
Pneumococcal vaccine; Maternal immunization; Antibody titers
13.  Vaccine refusal and the endgame: walking the last mile first 
As multiple papers within this special issue illustrate, the dynamics of disease eradication are different from disease control. When it comes to disease eradication, ‘the last mile is longest’. For social and ecological reasons such as vaccine refusal, further ending incidence of a disease when it has reached low levels is frequently complex. Issues of non-compliance within a target population often influence the outcome of disease eradication efforts. Past eradication efforts confronted such obstacles towards the tail end of the campaign, when disease incidence was lowest. This article provides a comparison of non-compliance within polio, measles and smallpox campaigns, demonstrating the tendency of vaccine refusal to rise as disease incidence falls. In order to overcome one of the most intractable challenges to eradication, future disease eradication efforts must prioritize vaccine refusal from the start, i.e. ‘walk the last mile first’.
doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0148
PMCID: PMC3720046  PMID: 23798696
disease eradication; vaccine refusal; polio; measles
14.  Evaluation of the frequency of immunization information system use for public health research 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2013;9(6):1346-1350.
Immunization information systems (IIS) have been useful for consolidating immunization data and increasing coverage, and have the potential to be a valuable resource for immunization research, but the extent which IIS data are used for research purposes has not been evaluated. We reviewed studies conducted using data from federally supported state and city immunization program IIS, and categorized research type based on study objectives to evaluate patterns in the types of research conducted. Research papers using IIS data published between 1999 and July 3, 2012 were identified by searching the CDC IIS publication database and PubMed. These searches produced 304 and 884 papers, respectively, 44 of which were eligible to be included in this evaluation. The most common research category was evaluation of factors associated with vaccine coverage and vaccine coverage estimates (n = 20). This study shows that IIS may not be used to their full potential with regards to research. Further research is needed to determine barriers to using IIS data for research purposes.
doi:10.4161/hv.24033
PMCID: PMC3901828  PMID: 23422024
immunization information systems; research; review; registry; functionality
15.  A Systematic Analytic Approach to Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning 
PLoS Medicine  2005;2(12):e359.
The World Health Organization warns that a flu pandemic is inevitable, and possibly imminent. Barnett and colleagues discuss a tool called the Haddon Matrix that could help in pandemic influenza planning.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0020359
PMCID: PMC1274283  PMID: 16255619
16.  Partners in Immunization: 2010 Survey Examining Differences Among H1N1 Vaccine Providers in Washington State 
Public Health Reports  2013;128(3):198-211.
Objectives
Emergency response involving mass vaccination requires the involvement of traditional vaccine providers as well as other health-care providers, including pharmacists, obstetricians, and health-care providers at correctional facilities. We explored differences in provider experiences administering pandemic vaccine during a public health emergency.
Methods
We conducted a cross-sectional survey of H1N1 vaccine providers in Washington State, examining topics regarding pandemic vaccine administration, participation in preparedness activities, and communication with public health agencies. We also examined differences among provider types in responses received (n=619, 80.9% response rate).
Results
Compared with other types of vaccine providers (e.g., family practitioners, obstetricians, and specialists), pharmacists reported higher patient volumes as well as higher patient-to-practitioner ratios, indicating a broad capacity for community reach. Pharmacists and correctional health-care providers reported lower staff coverage with seasonal and H1N1 vaccines. Compared with other vaccine providers, pharmacists were also more likely to report relying on public health information from federal sources. They were less likely to report relying on local health departments (LHDs) for pandemic-related information, but indicated a desire to be included in LHD communications and plans. While all provider types indicated a high willingness to respond to a public health emergency, pharmacists were less likely to have participated in training, actual emergency response, or surge capacity initiatives. No obstetricians reported participating in surge capacity initiatives.
Conclusions
Results from this survey suggest that efforts to increase communication and interaction between public health agencies and pharmacy, obstetric, and correctional health-care vaccine providers may improve future preparedness and emergency response capability and reach.
PMCID: PMC3610072  PMID: 23633735
17.  Pooled Individual Data Analysis of 5 Randomized Trials of Infant Nevirapine Prophylaxis to Prevent Breast-Milk HIV-1 Transmission 
A pooled analysis of individual data from >5000 human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)–infected mothers and their infants from Africa and India who participated in 5 randomized trials shows that extended prophylaxis with nevirapine or with nevirapine and zidovudine significantly reduces postnatal HIV-1 infection.
Background. In resource-limited settings, mothers infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) face a difficult choice: breastfeed their infants but risk transmitting HIV-1 or not breastfeed their infants and risk the infants dying of other infectious diseases or malnutrition. Recent results from observational studies and randomized clinical trials indicate daily administration of nevirapine to the infant can prevent breast-milk HIV-1 transmission.
Methods. Data from 5396 mother-infant pairs who participated in 5 randomized trials where the infant was HIV-1 negative at birth were pooled to estimate the efficacy of infant nevirapine prophylaxis to prevent breast-milk HIV-1 transmission. Four daily regimens were compared: nevirapine for 6 weeks, 14 weeks, or 28 weeks, or nevirapine plus zidovudine for 14 weeks.
Results. The estimated 28-week risk of HIV-1 transmission was 5.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.3%–7.9%) for the 6-week nevirapine regimen, 3.7% (95% CI, 2.5%–5.4%) for the 14-week nevirapine regimen, 4.8% (95% CI, 3.5%–6.7%) for the 14-week nevirapine plus zidovudine regimen, and 1.8% (95% CI, 1.0%–3.1%) for the 28-week nevirapine regimen (log-rank test for trend, P < .001). Cox regression models with nevirapine as a time-varying covariate, stratified by trial site and adjusted for maternal CD4 cell count and infant birth weight, indicated that nevirapine reduces the rate of HIV-1 infection by 71% (95% CI, 58%–80%; P < .001) and reduces the rate of HIV infection or death by 58% (95% CI, 45%–69%; P < .001).
Conclusions. Extended prophylaxis with nevirapine or with nevirapine and zidovudine significantly reduces postnatal HIV-1 infection. Longer duration of prophylaxis results in a greater reduction in the risk of infection.
doi:10.1093/cid/cis808
PMCID: PMC3518881  PMID: 22997212
breast milk; HIV; nevirapine
18.  IgA and Neutralizing Antibodies to Influenza A Virus in Human Milk: A Randomized Trial of Antenatal Influenza Immunization 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(8):e70867.
Background
Antenatal immunization of mothers with influenza vaccine increases serum antibodies and reduces the rates of influenza illness in mothers and their infants. We report the effect of antenatal immunization on the levels of specific anti-influenza IgA levels in human breast milk. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00142389; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00142389).
Methods and Findings
The Mother's Gift study was a prospective, blinded, randomized controlled trial that assigned 340 pregnant Bangladeshi mothers to receive either trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine, or 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine during the third trimester. We evaluated breast milk at birth, 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months, and serum at 10 weeks and 12 months. Milk and serum specimens from 57 subjects were assayed for specific IgA antibody to influenza A/New Caledonia (H1N1) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and a virus neutralization assay, and for total IgA using ELISA. Influenza-specific IgA levels in breast milk were significantly higher in influenza vaccinees than in pneumococcal controls for at least 6 months postpartum (p = 0.04). Geometric mean concentrations ranged from 8.0 to 91.1 ELISA units/ml in vaccinees, versus 2.3 to 13.7 ELISA units/mL in controls. Virus neutralization titers in milk were 1.2 to 3 fold greater in vaccinees, and correlated with influenza-specific IgA levels (r = 0.86). Greater exclusivity of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life significantly decreased the expected number of respiratory illness with fever episodes in infants of influenza-vaccinated mothers (p = 0.0042) but not in infants of pneumococcal-vaccinated mothers (p = 0.4154).
Conclusions
The sustained high levels of actively produced anti-influenza IgA in breast milk and the decreased infant episodes of respiratory illness with fever suggest that breastfeeding may provide local mucosal protection for the infant for at least 6 months. Studies are needed to determine the cellular and immunologic mechanisms of breast milk-mediated protection after antepartum immunization.
Trial Registration
ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00142389
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0070867
PMCID: PMC3743877  PMID: 23967126
19.  Guillain-Barré Syndrome, Influenza Vaccination, and Antecedent Respiratory and Gastrointestinal Infections: A Case-Centered Analysis in the Vaccine Safety Datalink, 2009–2011 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(6):e67185.
Background
Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can be triggered by gastrointestinal or respiratory infections, including influenza. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, monovalent inactivated influenza vaccine (MIV) availability coincided with high rates of wildtype influenza infections. Several prior studies suggested an elevated GBS risk following MIV, but adjustment for antecedent infection was limited.
Methods
We identified patients enrolled in health plans participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink and diagnosed with GBS from July 2009 through June 2011. Medical records of GBS cases with 2009–10 MIV, 2010–11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), and/or a medically-attended respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the 1 through 141 days prior to GBS diagnosis were reviewed and classified according to Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Using a case-centered design, logistic regression models adjusted for patient-level time-varying sources of confounding, including seasonal vaccinations and infections in GBS cases and population-level controls.
Results
Eighteen confirmed GBS cases received vaccination in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 1.27 million 2009–10 MIV recipients and 2.80 million 2010–11 TIV recipients. Forty-four confirmed GBS cases had infection in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 3.77 million patients diagnosed with medically-attended infection. The observed-versus-expected odds that 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV was received in the 6 weeks preceding GBS onset was odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59–3.99; risk difference = 0.93 per million doses, 95% CI, −0.71–5.16. The association between GBS and medically-attended infection was: odds ratio = 7.73, 95% CI, 3.60–16.61; risk difference = 11.62 per million infected patients, 95% CI, 4.49–26.94. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative infection definitions and risk intervals for prior vaccination shorter than 6 weeks.
Conclusions
After adjusting for antecedent infections, we found no evidence for an elevated GBS risk following 2009–10 MIV/2010–11 TIV influenza vaccines. However, the association between GBS and antecedent infection was strongly elevated.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0067185
PMCID: PMC3694016  PMID: 23840621
20.  Factors Mediating Seasonal and Influenza A (H1N1) Vaccine Acceptance among Ethnically Diverse Populations in the Urban South 
Vaccine  2012;30(28):4200-4208.
Objective
We examined the acceptability of the influenza A (H1N1) and seasonal vaccinations immediately following government manufacture approval to gauge potential product uptake in minority communities. We studied correlates of vaccine acceptance including attitudes, beliefs, perceptions, and influenza immunization experiences, and sought to identify communication approaches to increase influenza vaccine coverage in community settings.
Methods
Adults ≥ 18 years participated in a cross-sectional survey from September through December 2009. Venue-based sampling was used to recruit participants of racial and ethnic minorities.
Results
The sample (N=503) included mostly lower income (81.9%, n=412) participants and African Americans (79.3%, n=399). Respondents expressed greater acceptability of the H1N1 vaccination compared to seasonal flu immunization (t=2.86, p=0.005) although H1N1 vaccine acceptability was moderately low (38%, n=191). Factors associated with acceptance of the H1N1 vaccine included positive attitudes about immunizations [OR=0.23, CI (0.16, 0.33)], community perceptions of H1N1 [OR=2.15, CI (1.57, 2.95)], and having had a flu shot in the past 5 years [OR=2.50, CI (1.52, 4.10). The factors associated with acceptance of the seasonal flu vaccine included positive attitudes about immunization [OR=0.43, CI (0.32, 0.59)], community perceptions of H1N1 [OR=1.53, CI (1.16, 2.01)], and having had the flu shot in the past 5 years [OR=3.53, CI (2.16, 5.78)]. Participants were most likely to be influenced to take a flu shot by physicians [OR=1.94, CI (1.31, 2.86)]. Persons who obtained influenza vaccinations indicated that Facebook (χ2=11.7, p=.02) and Twitter (χ2=18.1, p=.001) could be useful vaccine communication channels and that churches (χ2=21.5, p<.001) and grocery stores (χ2=21.5, p<.001) would be effective “flu shot stops” in their communities.
Conclusions
In this population, positive vaccine attitudes and community perceptions, along with previous flu vaccination, were associated with H1N1 and seasonal influenza vaccine acceptance. Increased immunization coverage in this community may be achieved through physician communication to dispel vaccine conspiracy beliefs and discussion about vaccine protection via social media and in other community venues.
doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.04.053
PMCID: PMC3522428  PMID: 22537991
H1N1 Vaccine; Acceptability; Vaccine Refusal; Immunization Coverage; Minorities
21.  Safety and Efficacy of HIV Hyperimmune Globulin (HIVIGLOB) for Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in HIV-1 infected Pregnant Women and their Infants in Kampala, Uganda (HIVIGLOB/NVP STUDY) 
Background
This phase III randomized clinical trial compared single dose nevirapine (sdNVP) plus HIV immunoglobulin (HIVIGLOB) to sdNVP alone for preventing maternal-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV.
Primary objectives were to determine rates of HIV infection among infants, and to assess the safety of HIVIGLOB in combination with sdNVP in HIV-infected Ugandan pregnant women and their infants.
Methods
Mother-infant pairs were randomized to receive 200mg of NVP to women in labor and 2mg/kg NVP to newborns within 72 hours after birth (sdNVP arm) or to receive sdNVP plus a single intravenous 240ml dose of HIVIGLOB given to women at 36-38 weeks gestation and a single intravenous 24ml dose to newborns within 18 hours of birth (HIVIGLOB/sdNVP arm). Risk of HIV infection was determined using Kaplan-Meier and risk ratio estimates at birth, 2, 6, 14 weeks, 6 and 12 months of age.
Results
Intent-to-treat analysis included 198 HIVIGLOB/sdNVP and 294 sdNVP mother-infant pairs. At 6 months of age, the primary endpoint, there was no statistically significant difference in HIV transmission in the HIVIGLOB/sdNVP arm versus the sdNVP arm (18.7% vs.15.0%; RR =1.240 [95% CI: 0.833-1.846]; p= 0.290). Similarly, the proportion of serious adverse events in the HIVIGLOB/sdNVP and sdNVP arms, respectively for mothers (18.9% vs. 19.3%; p= 0.91) and infants (62.6% vs. 59.5%; p=0.51), were not significantly different.
Conclusion
Giving mother-infant pairs an infusion of peripartum HIV hyperimmunoglobulin in addition to sdNVP for PMTCT was as safe as sdNVP alone, but was no more effective than sdNVP alone in preventing HIV transmission.
doi:10.1097/QAI.0b013e31822f8914
PMCID: PMC3204156  PMID: 21826009
HIV; HIVIGLOB; sdNVP; breastfeeding; PMTCT; Uganda
22.  Slower Clearance of Nevirapine Resistant Virus in Infants Failing Extended Nevirapine Prophylaxis for Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission 
Abstract
Nevirapine resistance mutations arise commonly following single or extended-dose nevirapine (ED-NVP) prophylaxis to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but decay within 6–12 months of single-dose exposure. Use of ED-NVP prophylaxis in infants is expected to rise, but data on decay of nevirapine resistance mutations in infants in whom ED-NVP failed remain limited. We assessed, in Ethiopian infants participating in the Six-Week Extended Nevirapine (SWEN) Trial, the prevalence and persistence of nevirapine resistance mutations at 6 and 12 months following single-dose or up to 6 weeks of ED-NVP, and correlated their presence with the timing of infection and the type of resistance mutations. Standard population genotyping followed by high-throughput cloning were done on dried blood spot samples collected during the trial. More infants who received ED-NVP had nevirapine resistance detected by standard population genotyping (high frequencies) at age 6 months compared with those who received single-dose nevirapine (SD-NVP) (58% of 24 vs. 26% of 19, respectively; p = 0.06). Moreover, 56% of ED-NVP-exposed infants with nevirapine resistance at age 6 months still had nevirapine resistance mutations present at high frequencies at age 1 year. Infants infected before 6 weeks of age who received either SD- or ED-NVP were more likely to have Y181C or K103N; these mutations were also more likely to persist at high frequencies through 1 year of age. HIV-infected infants in whom ED-NVP prophylaxis fails are likely to experience delayed clearance of nevirapine-resistant virus in the first year of life, which in turn places them at risk for early selection of multidrug-resistant HIV after initial therapy with nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens.
doi:10.1089/aid.2010.0346
PMCID: PMC3149453  PMID: 21241214
23.  Neonatal outcomes after influenza immunization during pregnancy: a randomized controlled trial 
Background:
There are limited data about the effect of maternal influenza infection on fetuses and newborns. We performed a secondary analysis of data from the Mother’s Gift project, a randomized study designed to test the effectiveness of inactivated influenza and pneumococcal vaccines during pregnancy.
Methods:
In the Mother’s Gift project, 340 pregnant women in Bangladesh received either inactivated influenza vaccine or 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (control). This study was performed from August 2004 through December 2005. We performed a secondary analysis of outcomes following maternal influenza immunization during two periods: when influenza virus was not circulating (September 2004 through January 2005) and when influenza virus was circulating (February through October 2005). We assessed gestational age, mean birth weight and the proportion of infants who were small for gestational age.
Results:
During the period with no circulating influenza virus, there were no differences in the incidence of respiratory illness with fever per 100 person-months among mothers and infants in the two groups (influenza vaccine: 3.9; control: 4.0; p > 0.9). The proportion of infants who were small for gestational age and the mean birth weight were similar between groups (small for gestational age: influenza vaccine 29.1%, control 34.3%; mean birth weight: influenza vaccine 3083 g, control 3053 g). During the period with circulating influenza virus, there was a substantial reduction in the incidence per 100 person-months of respiratory illness with fever among the mothers and infants who had received the influenza vaccine (influenza vaccine: 3.7; control: 7.2; p = 0.0003). During this period, the proportion of infants who were small for gestational age was lower in the influenza vaccine group than in the control group (25.9% v. 44.8%; p = 0.03). The mean birth weight was higher among infants whose mothers received the influenza vaccine than among those who received the control vaccine during this period (3178 g v. 2978 g; p = 0.02).
Interpretation:
During the period with circulating influenza virus, maternal immunization during pregnancy was associated with a lower proportion of infants who were small for gestational age and an increase in mean birth weight. These data need confirmation but suggest that prevention of influenza infection in pregnancy can influence intrauterine growth.
Trial Registration:
ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT 00142389
doi:10.1503/cmaj.110754
PMCID: PMC3314035  PMID: 22353593
24.  Spatial Clustering of HIV Prevalence in Atlanta, Georgia and Population Characteristics Associated with Case Concentrations 
We assessed prevalent HIV cases in Atlanta to examine case distribution trends and population characteristics at the census tract level that may be associated with clustering effects. We calculated cluster characteristics (area and internal HIV prevalence) via Kuldorff's spatial scan method. Subsequent logistic regression analyses were performed to analyze sociodemographics associated with inclusion in a cluster. Organizations offering voluntary HIV testing and counseling services were identified and we assessed average travel time to access these services. One large cluster centralized in downtown Atlanta was identified that contains 60% of prevalent HIV cases. The prevalence rate within the cluster was 1.34% compared to 0.32% outside the cluster. Clustered tracts were associated with higher levels of poverty (OR = 1.19), lower density of multi-racial residents (OR = 1.85), injection drug use (OR = 1.99), men having sex with men (OR = 3.01), and men having sex with men and IV drug use (OR = 1.6). Forty-two percent (N = 11) of identified HIV service providers in Atlanta are located in the cluster with an average travel time of 13 minutes via car to access these services (SD = 9.24). The HIV epidemic in Atlanta is concentrated in one large cluster characterized by poverty, men who have sex with men (MSM), and IV drug usage. Prevention efforts targeted to the population living in this area as well as efforts to address the specific needs of these populations may be most beneficial in curtailing the epidemic within the identified cluster.
doi:10.1007/s11524-010-9510-0
PMCID: PMC3042078  PMID: 21249526
HIV/AIDS; HIV prevalence; Spatial cluster detection; Geographic mapping
25.  Gift Card Incentives and Non-Response Bias in a Survey of Vaccine Providers: The Role of Geographic and Demographic Factors 
PLoS ONE  2011;6(11):e28108.
This study investigates the effects of non-response bias in a 2010 postal survey assessing experiences with H1N1 influenza vaccine administration among a diverse sample of providers (N = 765) in Washington state. Though we garnered a high response rate (80.9%) by using evidence-based survey design elements, including intensive follow-up and a gift card incentive from Target, non-response bias could exist if there were differences between respondents and non-respondents. We investigated differences between the two groups for seven variables: road distance to the nearest Target store, practice type, previous administration of vaccines, region, urbanicity, size of practice, and Vaccines for Children (VFC) program enrollment. We also examined the effect of non-response bias on survey estimates. Statistically significant differences between respondents and non-respondents were found for four variables: miles to the nearest Target store, type of medical practice, whether the practice routinely administered additional vaccines besides H1N1, and urbanicity. Practices were more likely to respond if they were from a small town or rural area (OR = 7.68, 95% CI = 1.44−40.88), were a non-traditional vaccine provider type (OR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.06−4.08) or a pediatric provider type (OR = 4.03, 95% CI = 1.36−11.96), or administered additional vaccines besides H1N1 (OR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.03−3.15). Of particular interest, for each ten mile increase in road distance from the nearest Target store, the likelihood of provider response decreased (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.60−0.89). Of those variables associated with response, only small town or rural practice location was associated with a survey estimate of interest, suggesting that non-response bias had a minimal effect on survey estimates. These findings show that gift card incentives alongside survey design elements and follow-up can achieve high response rates. However, there is evidence that practices farther from the nearest place to redeem gift cards may be less likely to respond to the survey.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0028108
PMCID: PMC3223226  PMID: 22132224

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