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1.  Maternal Influenza Immunization and Adverse Birth Outcomes: Using Data and Practice to Inform Theory and Research Design 
American Journal of Epidemiology  2016;184(11):789-792.
Maternal influenza immunization can reduce influenza-attributable morbidity and mortality among pregnant women and infants who are too young to be vaccinated. Data from empirical studies also support the hypothesis that immunization can protect the fetus against adverse outcomes if the mother is exposed to influenza. In their theoretical analysis in the Journal, Hutcheon et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;184(3):227–232) critiqued the existing evidence of the fetal benefits of maternal influenza immunization by calculating the sample sizes needed to demonstrate hypothetical reductions in risk and concluded that the benefits observed in empirical studies are likely implausible. However, in their analysis, they did not take into account multiple fundamental characteristics of influenza epidemiology, including the time-variable effects of influenza illness and vaccination during pregnancy, or well-known differences in disease epidemiology between seasons, populations, and geographic regions. Although these and other factors might affect the magnitude of fetal benefit conferred by maternal influenza immunization, studies in which investigators have accounted for influenza circulation have demonstrated a consistent protective effect against a variety of adverse birth outcomes; those studies include the only randomized controlled trial designed a priori and adequately powered to do so. Only a comprehensive and nuanced assessment of the evidence base will allow for effective translation of these data into a global immunization policy.
PMCID: PMC5152664  PMID: 27784657
birth outcome; birthweight; influenza; maternal immunization; pregnancy; preterm birth
2.  Association Between Vaccine Refusal and Vaccine-Preventable Diseases in the United States 
JAMA  2016;315(11):1149-1158.
Parents hesitant to vaccinate their children may delay routine immunizations or seek exemptions from state vaccine mandates. Recent outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases in the United States have drawn attention to this phenomenon. Improved understanding of the association between vaccine refusal and the epidemiology of these diseases is needed.
To review the published literature to evaluate the association between vaccine delay, refusal, or exemption and the epidemiology of measles and pertussis, 2 vaccine-preventable diseases with recent US outbreaks.
Search of PubMed through November 30, 2015, for reports of US measles outbreaks that have occurred since measles was declared eliminated in the United States (after January 1, 2000), endemic and epidemic pertussis since the lowest point in US pertussis incidence (after January 1, 1977), and for studies that assessed disease risk in the context of vaccine delay or exemption.
We identified 18 published measles studies (9 annual summaries and 9 outbreak reports), which described 1416 measles cases (individual age range, 2 weeks-84 years; 178 cases younger than 12 months) and more than half (56.8%) had no history of measles vaccination. Of the 970 measles cases with detailed vaccination data, 574 cases were unvaccinated despite being vaccine eligible and 405 (70.6%) of these had nonmedical exemptions (eg, exemptions for religious or philosophical reasons, as opposed to medical contraindications; 41.8%of total). Among 32 reports of pertussis outbreaks, which included 10 609 individuals for whom vaccination status was reported (age range, 10 days-87 years), the 5 largest statewide epidemics had substantial proportions (range, 24%–45%) of unvaccinated or undervaccinated individuals. However, several pertussis outbreaks also occurred in highly vaccinated populations, indicating waning immunity. Nine reports (describing 12 outbreaks) provided detailed vaccination data on unimmunized cases; among 8 of these outbreaks from 59%through 93%of unvaccinated individuals were intentionally unvaccinated.
A substantial proportion of the US measles cases in the era after elimination were intentionally unvaccinated. The phenomenon of vaccine refusal was associated with an increased risk for measles among people who refuse vaccines and among fully vaccinated individuals. Although pertussis resurgence has been attributed to waning immunity and other factors, vaccine refusal was still associated with an increased risk for pertussis in some populations.
PMCID: PMC5007135  PMID: 26978210
3.  Using the Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding Method (BISG) to Create a Working Classification of Race and Ethnicity in a Diverse Managed Care Population: A Validation Study 
Health Services Research  2013;49(1):268-283.
ObjectiveTo validate classification of race/ethnicity based on the Bayesian Improved Surname Geocoding method (BISG) and assess variations in validity by gender and age.
Data Sources/Study SettingSecondary data on members of Kaiser Permanente Georgia, an integrated managed care organization, through 2010.
Study DesignFor 191,494 members with self-reported race/ethnicity, probabilities for belonging to each of six race/ethnicity categories predicted from the BISG algorithm were used to assign individuals to a race/ethnicity category over a range of cutoffs greater than a probability of 0.50. Overall as well as gender-and age-stratified sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated and used to identify optimal cutoffs for race/ethnicity assignment.
Principal FindingsThe overall cutoffs for assignment that optimized sensitivity and specificity ranged from 0.50 to 0.57 for the four main racial/ethnic categories (White, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic). Corresponding sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV ranged from 64.4 to 81.4 percent, 80.8 to 99.7 percent, 75.0 to 91.6 percent, and 79.4 to 98.0 percent, respectively. Accuracy of assignment was better among males and individuals of 65 years or older.
ConclusionsBISG may be useful for classifying race/ethnicity of health plan members when needed for health care studies.
PMCID: PMC3922477  PMID: 23855558
Race/ethnicity; imputation and indirect estimation; geocoding; surname analysis; health plans
4.  MMR vaccination status of children exempted from school-entry immunization mandates 
Vaccine  2015;33(46):6250-6256.
Child immunizations are one of the most successful public health interventions of the past century. Still, parental vaccine hesitancy is widespread and increasing. One manifestation of this are rising rates of nonmedical or “personal beliefs” exemptions (PBEs) from school-entry immunization mandates. Exemptions have been shown to be associated with increased risk of disease outbreak, but the strength of this association depends critically on the true vaccination status of exempted children, which has not been assessed.
To estimate the true measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination status of children with PBEs.
We use administrative data collected by the California Department of Public Health in 2009 and imputation to estimate the MMR vaccination status of children with PBEs under varying scenarios.
Results from 2009 surveillance data indicate MMR1/MMR2 coverage of 18–47% among children with PBEs at typical schools and 11–34% among children with PBEs at schools with high PBE rates. Imputation scenarios point to much higher coverage (64–92% for MMR1 and 25–58% for MMR2 at typical schools; 49–90% for MMR1 and 16–63% for MMR2 at high PBE schools) but still below levels needed to maintain herd immunity against measles.
These coverage estimates suggest that prior analyses of the relative risk of measles associated with vaccine refusal underestimate that risk by an order of magnitude of 2–10 times.
PMCID: PMC4644479  PMID: 26431991
Immunization; Imputation; Measles; Measles Mumps Rubella Vaccine; Primary Schools; Vaccination
5.  Epidemiology of Pertussis Among Young Pakistani Infants: A Community-Based Prospective Surveillance Study 
Background. Pertussis remains a cause of morbidity and mortality among young infants. There are limited data on the pertussis disease burden in this age group from low- and lower-middle-income countries, including in South Asia.
Methods. We conducted an active community-based surveillance study from February 2015 to April 2016 among 2 cohorts of young infants in 4 low-income settlements in Karachi, Pakistan. Infants were enrolled either at birth (closed cohort) or at ages up to 10 weeks (open cohort) and followed until 18 weeks of age. Nasopharyngeal swab specimens were obtained from infants who met a standardized syndromic case definition and tested for Bordetella pertussis using real-time polymerase chain reaction. We determined the incidence of pertussis using a protocol-defined case definition, as well as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) definitions for confirmed and probable pertussis.
Results. Of 2021 infants enrolled into the study, 8 infants met the protocol-defined pertussis case definition, for an incidence of 3.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.84–7.50) cases per 1000 infants. Seven of the pertussis cases met the CDC pertussis case definition (5 confirmed, 2 probable), for incidences of CDC-defined confirmed pertussis of 2.47 (95% CI, .90–5.48) cases per 1000 infants, and probable pertussis of 0.99 (95% CI, .17–3.27) cases per 1000 infants. Three of the pertussis cases were severe according to the Modified Preziosi Scale score.
Conclusions. In one of the first prospective surveillance studies of infant pertussis in a developing country, we identified a moderate burden of pertussis disease in early infancy in Pakistan.
PMCID: PMC5106628  PMID: 27838667
pertussis; maternal vaccine; Tdap; Pakistan; surveillance
6.  Safety of Tetanus, Diphtheria, and Acellular Pertussis and Influenza Vaccinations in Pregnancy 
Obstetrics and gynecology  2015;126(5):1069-1074.
To evaluate the safety of co-administering tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis (Tdap) and influenza vaccines during pregnancy by comparing adverse events after concomitant and sequential vaccination.
We conducted a retrospective cohort study of pregnant women aged 14–49 years in the Vaccine Safety Datalink from January 1, 2007 to November 15, 2013. We compared medically attended acute events (fever, any acute reaction) and adverse birth outcomes (preterm delivery, low birth weight, small for gestational age) in women receiving concomitant Tdap and influenza vaccination and women receiving sequential vaccination.
Among 36,844 pregnancies in which Tdap and influenza vaccines were administered, the vaccines were administered concomitantly in 8,464 (23%) pregnancies, and sequentially in 28,380 (77%) pregnancies. Acute adverse events after vaccination were rare. We found no statistically significant increased risk of fever or any medically attended acute adverse event in pregnant women vaccinated concomitantly compared to sequentially. When analyzing women at 20 weeks of gestation or greater during periods of influenza vaccine administration, there were no differences in preterm delivery, low birth weight or small-for-gestational-age infants between women vaccinated concomitantly compared with sequentially in pregnancy.
Concomitant administration of Tdap and influenza vaccines during pregnancy was not associated with a higher risk of medically attended adverse acute outcomes or birth outcomes compared to sequential vaccination.
PMCID: PMC4618722  PMID: 26444109
7.  The Effect of Influenza Vaccination on Birth Outcomes in a Cohort of Pregnant Women in Lao PDR, 2014–2015 
Some studies suggest that maternal influenza vaccination can improve birth outcomes. However, there are limited data from tropical settings, particularly Southeast Asia. We conducted an observational study in Laos to assess the effect of influenza vaccination in pregnant women on birth outcomes.
We consented and enrolled a cohort of pregnant woman who delivered babies at 3 hospitals during April 2014–February 2015. We collected demographic and clinical information on mother and child. Influenza vaccination status was ascertained by vaccine card. Primary outcomes were the proportion of live births born small for gestational age (SGA) or preterm and mean birth weight. Multivariate models controlled for differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated women and influenza virus circulation.
We enrolled 5103 women (2172 [43%] were vaccinated). Among the 4854 who had a live birth, vaccinated women were statistically significantly less likely than unvaccinated women to have an infant born preterm during the period of high influenza virus circulation (risk ratio [RR] = 0.56, 95% confidence interval [CI], .45–.70), and the effect remained after adjusting for covariates (adjusted RR, 0.69; 95% CI, .55–.87). There was no effect of vaccine on SGA or mean birth weight. The population-prevented fraction was 18.0%.
In this observational study, we found indirect evidence of influenza vaccine safety during pregnancy, and women who received vaccine had a reduced risk of delivering a preterm infant during times of high influenza virus circulation. Vaccination may prevent 1 in 5 preterm births that occur during periods of high influenza circulation.
PMCID: PMC4970914  PMID: 27143672
influenza vaccine; pregnant woman; preterm birth; small for gestational age; Laos
8.  Pneumonia hospitalisations in Scotland following the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in young children 
BMC Infectious Diseases  2016;16:390.
Scotland introduced PCV7 and PCV13 immunisation in young children in 2006 and 2010 respectively. One recent study from the United States reported a decrease in hospitalisation rates for all-cause pneumonia most notably in adults older than 75 years of age following PCV7 introduction in the US child population. We aimed to examine the effect of PCV7 and PCV13 on hospitalisation rates for all-cause pneumonia across all age groups in Scotland.
We linked hospital records and death certification datasets for the entire Scottish population for the period 2000 to 2012. We included all cases where the primary / secondary diagnosis was pneumonia. Differences in hospital admission rates for pneumonia by age group were calculated using the difference in average annual rates for each period.
We estimated that all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation rates in children <2 years decreased by about 30 % in the post-PCV-13 period compared with the pre-PCV period. However, in adults aged 75–84 years and ≥85 years, all-cause pneumonia hospitalisation rates increased by 63 and 46 % respectively in the post-PCV 13 period compared to the pre-PCV period. This resulted in an additional 7000 hospitalisations across all age groups in Scotland in 2012 about half of which were in adults >75 years. At the same time, the median length of hospital stay decreased by a third in children <2 years and by about 20 % in adults >75 years in the post-PCV13 period compared to the pre-PCV period. Additionally, there was an 11 % reduction in deaths due to all-cause pneumonia, and 30 % reduction in pneumococcal hospitalisations across all age groups in the post-PCV13 period compared with pre-PCV period.
The modest and sustained decline in the rates of hospitalisation for all-cause pneumonia in children and the reduction in proportion of pneumonia hospitalisations in children coded as pneumococcal disease in the post-PCV period should alleviate concerns that pneumococcal serotype replacement may have resulted in an increased pneumonia burden in this age group. The indirect impact of child PCV immunisation in those not vaccinated (in terms of reduction in all-cause pneumonia hospitalisations in the elderly) has not been seen in Scotland. Our results are likely to be confounded by changes in clinical coding and healthcare practices over the same period.
Our results illustrate that health care planners cannot, with confidence, predict indirect PCV vaccine impacts on hospitalisations. IPD surveillance across all age groups is needed to assess the indirect effects of PCV in the community.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1693-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
PMCID: PMC4977871  PMID: 27506837
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine; Indirect effects; All-cause pneumonia hospitalisations; Pneumococcal hospitalisations; Pneumonia mortality
9.  Delivering a “Dose of Hope”: A Faith-Based Program to Increase Older African Americans’ Participation in Clinical Trials 
JMIR Research Protocols  2015;4(2):e64.
Underrepresentation of older-age racial and ethnic minorities in clinical research is a significant barrier to health in the United States, as it impedes medical research advancement of effective preventive and therapeutic strategies.
The objective of the study was to develop and test the feasibility of a community-developed faith-based intervention and evaluate its potential to increase the number of older African Americans in clinical research.
Using a cluster-randomized design, we worked with six matched churches to enroll at least 210 persons. We provided those in the intervention group churches with three educational sessions on the role of clinical trials in addressing health disparity topics, and those in the comparison group completed surveys at the same timepoints. All persons enrolled in the study received ongoing information via newsletters and direct outreach on an array of clinical studies seeking participants. We evaluated the short-, mid-, and longer-term effects of the interventional program on clinical trial-related outcomes (ie, screening and enrollment).
From 2012 to 2013, we enrolled a balanced cohort of 221 persons in the program. At a 3-month follow-up, mean intention to seek information about clinical trials was higher than baseline in both treatment (mu=7.5/10; sigma=3.1) and control arms (mu=6.6/10; sigma=3.3), with the difference more pronounced in the treatment arm. The program demonstrated strong retention at 3-month (95.4%, 211/221) and 6-month timepoints (94.1%, 208/221).
The “Dose of Hope” program addressed an unmet need to reach an often overlooked audience of older African Americans who are members of churches and stimulate their interest in clinical trial participation. The program demonstrated its appeal in the delivery of effective messages and information about health disparities, and the role of clinical research in addressing these challenges.
PMCID: PMC4526899  PMID: 26036841
health disparities; clinical trials; churches; study recruitment; African Americans
10.  Epidemiology of vaccine hesitancy in the United States 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2013;9(12):2643-2648.
Vaccines are among the most effective public health interventions against infectious diseases. However, there is evidence in the United States for parents either delaying or refusing recommended childhood vaccination. Exemptions to school immunization laws and use of alternative schedule from those recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and the American Academy of Pediatrics cannot only increase the risk of children contracting vaccine-preventable diseases but also increases the risk of infecting others who are either too young to be vaccinated, cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons or did not develop a sufficient immunological response to the vaccine. Healthcare providers are cited as the most influential source by parents on vaccine decision-making. Vaccine hesitancy needs to be addressed by healthcare providers and the scientific community by listening to the parental concerns and discussing risks associated with either delaying or refusing vaccines.
PMCID: PMC4162046  PMID: 24247148
vaccines; vaccine hesitancy; immunizations; exemptions; parent beliefs; attitudes
11.  A systematic review of ethical issues in vaccine studies involving pregnant women 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2016;12(8):1952-1959.
Background: Immunization during pregnancy can provide protection for mother and child. However, there have been only a limited number of studies documenting the efficacy and safety of this strategy. Aims: To determine the extent and nature of subject matter related to ethics in maternal immunization by systematically documenting the spectrum of ethical issues in vaccine studies involving pregnant women. Method: We conducted a systematic literature review of published works pertaining to vaccine and therapeutic studies involving pregnant women through searches of PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Database, and We selected literature meeting the inclusion criteria published between 1988 and June 2014. We systematically abstracted subject matter pertaining to ethical issues in immunization studies during pregnancy. Immunization-specific ethical issues were matched and grouped into major categories and subcategories. Results: Seventy-seven published articles met the inclusion criteria. Published articles reported findings on data that had been collected in 26 countries, the majority of which were classified as high-income or upper-middle-income nations according to World Bank criteria. Review of these publications produced 60 immunization-specific ethical issues, grouped into six major categories. Notably, many studies demonstrated limited acknowledgment of key ethical issues including the rights and welfare of participants. Additionally, there was no discussion pertaining to the ethics of program implementation, including integration of maternal immunization programs into existing routine immunization programs. Conclusion: This review of ethical issues in immunization studies of pregnant women can be used to help inform future vaccine trials in this important population. Consistent documentation of these ethical issues by investigators will facilitate a broader and more nuanced discussion of ethics in immunization of pregnant women – offering new and valuable insights for programs developed to prevent disease in newborn children in low- and middle-income countries.
PMCID: PMC4994733  PMID: 27246403
ethics; maternal immunization; vaccinology
12.  Neonatal Outcomes After Antenatal Influenza Immunization During the 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic: Impact on Preterm Birth, Birth Weight, and Small for Gestational Age Birth 
During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, infants of H1N1-vaccinated mothers had 38% lower odds of being born preterm, and were 45.0 g heavier, on average, than infants of unvaccinated mothers.
Background. Influenza infection during pregnancy is associated with adverse fetal outcomes such as preterm birth and small for gestational age (SGA). Maternal influenza immunization may prevent these adverse infant outcomes during periods of influenza circulation.
Methods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of live births within Kaiser Permanente (KP) Georgia and Mid-Atlantic States (n = 3327) during the period of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus circulation. Primary outcomes were third-trimester preterm birth (27–36 weeks), birth weight, low birth weight (LBW, <2500 g), and SGA.
Results. There were 327 (9.8%) preterm, 236 (7.4%) LBW, and 267 (8.4%) SGA births. Among H1N1-vaccinated mothers (n = 1125), there were 86 (7.6%) preterm, 68 (6.4%) LBW, and 99 (9.3%) SGA births, and the mean birth weight was 3308.5 g (95% confidence interval [CI], 3276.6–3340.4). Among unvaccinated mothers (n = 1581), there were 191 (12.1%) preterm, 132 (8.8%) LBW, and 123 (8.2%) SGA births, and the mean birth weight was 3245.3 g (95% CI, 3216.5–3274.2). Infants of H1N1-vaccinated mothers had 37% lower odds of being born preterm than infants of unvaccinated mothers (adjusted odds ratio, 0.63 [95% CI, .47–.84]). The mean birth weight difference between infants of H1N1-vaccinated mothers and infants of unvaccinated mothers was 45.1 g (95% CI, 1.8–88.3). There was no significant association between maternal H1N1 influenza immunization and LBW or SGA.
Conclusions. Pregnant women who received H1N1 influenza vaccine were less likely to give birth preterm, and gave birth to heavier infants. The findings support US vaccine policy choices to prioritize pregnant women during the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic.
PMCID: PMC4357807  PMID: 23378281
maternal immunization; influenza vaccine; prematurity; pandemic influenza; infants
13.  Perspectives of Immunization Program Managers on 2009-10 H1N1 Vaccination in the United States: A National Survey 
In June and July 2010, we conducted a national internet-based survey of 64 city, state, and territorial immunization program managers (IPMs) to assess their experiences in managing the 2009-10 H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign. Fifty-four (84%) of the managers or individuals responsible for an immunization program responded to the survey. To manage the campaign, 76% indicated their health department activated an incident command system (ICS) and 49% used an emergency operations center (EOC). Forty percent indicated they shared the leadership of the campaign with their state-level emergency preparedness program. The managers' perceptions of the helpfulness of the emergency preparedness staff was higher when they had collaborated with the emergency preparedness program on actual or simulated mass vaccination events within the previous 2 years. Fifty-seven percent found their pandemic influenza plan helpful, and those programs that mandated that vaccine providers enter data into their jurisdiction's immunization information system (IIS) were more likely than those who did not mandate data entry to rate their IIS as valuable for facilitating registration of nontraditional providers (42% vs. 25%, p<0.05) and tracking recalled influenza vaccine (50% vs. 38%, p<0.05). Results suggest that ICS and EOC structures, pandemic influenza plans, collaborations with emergency preparedness partners during nonemergencies, and expanded use of IIS can enhance immunization programs' ability to successfully manage a large-scale vaccination campaign. Maintaining the close working relationships developed between state-level immunization and emergency preparedness programs during the H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign will be especially important as states prepare for budget cuts in the coming years.
The authors conducted a study of state and local immunization program managers to assess their experiences in managing the 2009-10 H1N1 influenza vaccination campaign. Results suggest that incident command and emergency operations center structures, pandemic influenza plans, collaborations with emergency preparedness partners during nonemergencies, and expanded use of immunization information systems are important in successfully managing a large-scale vaccination campaign.
PMCID: PMC3316479  PMID: 22360580
14.  Parents' Source of Vaccine Information and Impact on Vaccine Attitudes, Beliefs, and Nonmedical Exemptions 
In recent years, use of the Internet to obtain vaccine information has increased. Historical data are necessary to evaluate current vaccine information seeking trends in context. Between 2002 and 2003, surveys were mailed to 1,630 parents of fully vaccinated children and 815 parents of children with at least one vaccine exemption; 56.1% responded. Respondents were asked about their vaccine information sources, perceptions of these sources accuracy, and their beliefs about vaccination. Parents who did not view their child's healthcare provider as a reliable vaccine information source were more likely to obtain vaccine information using the Internet. Parents who were younger, more highly educated, and opposed to school immunization requirements were more likely than their counterparts to use the Internet for vaccine information. Compared to parents who did not use the Internet for vaccine information, those who sought vaccine information on the Internet were more likely to have lower perceptions of vaccine safety (adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18–2.35), vaccine effectiveness (aOR, 1.83; 95% CI, 1.32–2.53), and disease susceptibility (aOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.49–2.90) and were more likely to have a child with a nonmedical exemption (aOR 3.53, 95% CI, 2.61–4.76). These findings provide context to interpret recent vaccine information seeking research.
PMCID: PMC3469070  PMID: 23082253
15.  Active Surveillance for Adverse Events After a Mass Vaccination Campaign With a Group A Meningococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PsA-TT) in Mali 
Background. The monovalent meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT, MenAfriVac) was developed for use in the “meningitis belt” of sub-Saharan Africa. Mali was 1 of 3 countries selected for early introduction. As this is a new vaccine, postlicensure surveillance is particularly important to identify and characterize possible safety issues.
Methods. The national vaccination campaign was phased from September 2010 to November 2011. We conducted postlicensure safety surveillance for PsA-TT in 40 government clinics from southern Mali serving approximately 400 000 people 1–29 years of age. We conducted analyses with individual-level data and population-level data, and we calculated rates of adverse events using the conditional exact test, a modified vaccine cohort risk interval method, and a modified self-controlled case series method for each outcome of interest, including 18 prespecified adverse events and 18 syndromic categories.
Results. An increased rate of clinic visits for fever within 3 days after vaccination was found using multiple methods for all age groups. Although other signals were found with some methods, complete assessment of all other prespecified outcomes and syndromic categories did not reveal that PsA-TT was consistently associated with any other health problem.
Conclusions. No new safety concerns were identified in this study. These results are consistent with prelicensure data and other studies indicating that PsA-TT is safe. The approach presented could serve as a model for future active postlicensure vaccine safety monitoring associated with large-scale immunization campaigns in low-income countries.
PMCID: PMC4639483  PMID: 26553680
vaccine safety; PsA-TT; MenAfriVac; meningitis belt; meningococcal vaccine
16.  Factors associated with maternal influenza immunization decision-making 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2014;10(9):2576-2583.
Objective: We examined pregnant women's intention to obtain the seasonal influenza vaccine via a randomized controlled study examining the effects of immunization history, message exposure, and sociodemographic correlates.
Methods: Pregnant women ages 18–50 participated in a randomized message framing study from September 2011 through May 2012. Venue-based sampling was used to recruit racial and ethnic minority women throughout Atlanta, Georgia. Key outcomes were evaluated using bivariate and multivariate analyses.
Results: History of influenza immunization was positively associated with intent to immunize during pregnancy [OR = 2.31, 90%CI: (1.06, 5.00)]. Significant correlates of intention to immunize included perceived susceptibility to influenza during pregnancy [OR = 3.8, 90% CI: (1.75, 8.36)] and vaccine efficacy [OR = 10.53, 90% CI: (4.34, 25.50)]. Single message exposure did not influence a woman's intent to vaccinate.
Conclusions: Prior immunization, perceived flu susceptibility and perceived vaccine effectiveness promoted immunization intent among this population of pregnant minority women. Vaccine efficacy and disease susceptibility are critical to promoting immunization among women with no history of seasonal influenza immunization, while those who received the vaccine are likely to do so again. These findings provide evidence for the promotion of repeated exposure to vaccine messages emphasizing vaccine efficacy, normative support, and susceptibility to influenza.
PMCID: PMC4977431  PMID: 25483468
influenza vaccination; message framing; immunization coverage; pregnant women; racial/ethnic minorities
17.  A Systematic Analytic Approach to Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning 
PLoS Medicine  2005;2(12):e359.
The World Health Organization warns that a flu pandemic is inevitable, and possibly imminent. Barnett and colleagues discuss a tool called the Haddon Matrix that could help in pandemic influenza planning.
PMCID: PMC1274283  PMID: 16255619
18.  Measles, Mandates, and Making Vaccination the Default Option 
JAMA pediatrics  2015;169(4):303-304.
PMCID: PMC4388794  PMID: 25671505
19.  Factors Associated with Intention to Receive Influenza and Tetanus, Diphtheria, and Acellular Pertussis (Tdap) Vaccines during Pregnancy: A Focus on Vaccine Hesitancy and Perceptions of Disease Severity and Vaccine Safety 
PLoS Currents  2015;7:ecurrents.outbreaks.d37b61bceebae5a7a06d40a301cfa819.
BACKGROUND: Improving influenza and tetanus, diphtheria and acellular pertussis (Tdap) vaccine coverage among pregnant women is needed. PURPOSE: To assess factors associated with intention to receive influenza and/or Tdap vaccinations during pregnancy with a focus on perceptions of influenza and pertussis disease severity and influenza vaccine safety. METHODS: Participants were 325 pregnant women in Georgia recruited from December 2012 – April 2013 who had not yet received a 2012/2013 influenza vaccine or a Tdap vaccine while pregnant. Women completed a survey assessing influenza vaccination history, likelihood of receiving antenatal influenza and/or Tdap vaccines, and knowledge, attitudes and beliefs about influenza, pertussis, and their associated vaccines. RESULTS: Seventy-three percent and 81% of women believed influenza and pertussis, respectively, would be serious during pregnancy while 87% and 92% believed influenza and pertussis, respectively, would be serious to their infants. Perception of pertussis severity for their infant was strongly associated with an intention to receive a Tdap vaccine before delivery (p=0.004). Despite perceptions of disease severity for themselves and their infants, only 34% and 44% intended to receive antenatal influenza and Tdap vaccines, respectively. Forty-six percent had low perceptions of safety regarding the influenza vaccine during pregnancy, and compared to women who perceived the influenza vaccine as safe, women who perceived the vaccine as unsafe were less likely to intend to receive antenatal influenza (48% vs. 20%; p < 0.001) or Tdap (53% vs. 33%; p < 0.001) vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this baseline survey suggest that while pregnant women who remain unvaccinated against influenza within the first three months of the putative influenza season may be aware of the risks influenza and pertussis pose to themselves and their infants, many remain reluctant to receive influenza and Tdap vaccines antenatally. To improve vaccine uptake in the obstetric setting, our findings support development of evidence-based vaccine promotion interventions which emphasize vaccine safety during pregnancy and mention disease severity in infancy.
PMCID: PMC4353696  PMID: 25789203
Influenza; maternal vaccination; pertussis; vaccination; vaccine hesitancy
20.  Comparison of impact and cost-effectiveness of rotavirus supplementary and routine immunization in a complex humanitarian emergency, Somali case study 
A humanitarian emergency involves a complete breakdown of authority that often disrupts routine health care delivery, including immunization. Diarrheal diseases are a principal cause of morbidity and mortality among children during humanitarian emergencies. The objective of this study was to assess if vaccination against rotavirus, the most common cause of severe diarrhea among children, either as an addition to routine immunization program (RI) or supplemental immunization activity (SIA) would be cost-effective during a humanitarian emergency to decrease diarrhea morbidity and mortality, using Somalia as a case study.
An impact and cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing no vaccine; two-dose rotavirus SIA and two-dose of RI for the 424,592 births in the 2012 Somali cohort. The main summary measure was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. Univariate sensitivity analysis examined the extent to which the uncertainty in the variables affected estimates.
If introduced in Somalia, a full-series rotavirus RI and SIA would save 908 and 359 lives, respectively, and save US$63,793 and US$25,246 in direct medical costs, respectively. The cost of a RI strategy would be US$309,458. Because of the high operational costs, a SIA strategy would cost US$715,713. US$5.30 per DALY would be averted for RI and US$37.62 per DALY averted for SIA. Variables that most substantially influenced the cost-effectiveness for both RI and SIA were vaccine program costs, mortality rate, and vaccine effectiveness against death.
Based on our model, rotavirus vaccination appears to be a cost-effective intervention as either RI or SIA, as defined by the World Health Organization as one to three times the per capita Gross Domestic Product (Somalia $112 in 2011). RI would have greater health impact and is more cost effective than SIA, assuming feasibility of reaching the target population. However, given the lack of infrastructure, whether RI is realistic in this setting remains unanswered, and alternative approaches like SIA should be further examined.
PMCID: PMC4331177  PMID: 25691915
Rotavirus vaccine; Humanitarian emergency; Somalia; Cost-effectiveness; Routine immunization
21.  Changes in Immunization Program Managers' Perceptions of Programs' Functional Capabilities During and After Vaccine Shortages and pH1N1 
Public Health Reports  2014;129(Suppl 4):42-48.
We surveyed U.S. immunization program managers (IPMs) as part of a project to improve public health preparedness against future emergencies by leveraging the immunization system. We examined immunization program policy and Immunization Information System (IIS) functionality changes as a result of the Haemophilus influenzae type B (Hib) vaccine shortage and pandemic influenza A(H1N1) (pH1N1). Evaluating changes in immunization program functionalities and policies following emergency response situations will assist in planning for future vaccine-related emergencies.
We administered three consecutive surveys to IPMs from 64 state, city, and territorial jurisdictions in 2009, 2010, and 2012. We compared IPMs' responses across either two or three years (e.g., changes in response or consistent responses across years) using McNemar's test.
Immunization programs maintained increases in functionality related to communication systems with health-care providers during this period. Immunization programs often did not maintain changes to IIS functionalities made from 2009 to 2010 (e.g., identifying high-risk and priority populations, tracking adverse events, and mapping disease risk) in the post-pandemic period (2010–2012). About half of IPMs reporting additional IIS functionality in identifying high-risk populations from 2009 to 2010 reported no longer having this function in 2012. There was an 18% decline in respondents reporting geographic information systems risk-mapping capability in IIS from 2010 to 2012.
Because of the Hib vaccine shortage and pH1N1, immunization program needs and efforts changed to address evolving situations. The lack of sustained increases in resources or system functions after the pandemic highlights the need for comprehensive, sustainable public health emergency preparedness systems and related resources.
PMCID: PMC4187306  PMID: 25355974
22.  Vaccine Providers’ Perspectives on Impact, Challenges, and Response during the California 2010 Pertussis Outbreak 
Introduction: California has experienced its worst outbreak of pertussis in 50 y. In preparing for such outbreaks of pertussis, vaccine providers in the state play a key role in educating patients about the public health implications of vaccination, explaining the benefits to immunization, and facilitating patients' receipt of recommended immunizations.
Methods: We conducted a survey of 800 California vaccine providers to investigate provider level response to recent pertussis outbreaks and regulation by provider type and geography.
Results: Sixty-nine percent (533/777) of vaccine providers within the state of California responded to the survey. Fifty-three percent (278/527) of vaccine providers indicated that it was part of standard care at their practice or pharmacy location to ask adult patients about pertussis vaccine (Table 1) and this varied across practice types (P < 0.0001). Fifty-seven percent of providers (270/476) indicated that the information they received from the state about pertussis during the 2010 California pertussis outbreak was very useful or useful, while 52% of providers indicated this information was neutral, not useful, not at all useful. Vaccine administration, patient groups seen, and challenges varied by provider type however meaningful differences among subpopulations to which the vaccine was administered were found between provider types (P < 0.001, Table 2).
Conclusion: The 2010 pertussis outbreak in California challenged vaccine providers in a way that changed the preparation, promotion, and planning for future outbreaks and emergency situations. Adaptability to the new state law and increased awareness of pertussis in the physician community were important in the number of patients receiving the vaccine. Also, forming partnerships with schools and health agencies were important in facilitating and promoting wide spread vaccination.
PMCID: PMC4181007  PMID: 24045304
pertussis; vaccine providers; preparedness; California
23.  Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Kassebaum, Nicholas J | Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia | Coggeshall, Megan S | Shackelford, Katya A | Steiner, Caitlyn | Heuton, Kyle R | Gonzalez-Medina, Diego | Barber, Ryan | Huynh, Chantal | Dicker, Daniel | Templin, Tara | Wolock, Timothy M | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abd-Allah, Foad | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie E | Akena, Dickens | Alasfoor, Deena | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alla, François | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad A | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Antonio, Carl A T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asad, Majed Masoud | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Basu, Arindam | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku J | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Breitborde, Nicholas | Cárdenas, Rosario | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Chang, Jung-Chen | Che, Xuan | Christophi, Costas A | Chugh, Sumeet S | Cirillo, Massimo | Colquhoun, Samantha M | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | da Costa Leite, Iuri | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Degenhardt, Louisa | De Leo, Diego | del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Dessalegn, Muluken | deVeber, Gabrielle A | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Dorrington, Rob E | Driscoll, Tim R | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Felicio, Manuela Mendonca | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | França, Elisabeth B | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gambashidze, Ketevan | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gibney, Katherine B | Giroud, Maurice | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | González-Castell, Dinorah | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Gupta, Rajeev | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Heredia Pi, Ileana B | Hoek, Hans W | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Husseini, Abdullatif | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Inoue, Manami | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jahangir, Eiman | Jee, Sun Ha | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kan, Haidong | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazanjan, Konstantin | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kwan, Gene | Lai, Taavi | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lam, Hilton | Lansingh, Van C | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Xiaohong | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | Liang, Juan | Liang, Xiaofeng | Lim, Stephen S | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | London, Stephanie J | Lotufo, Paulo A | Ma, Jixiang | Ma, Stefan | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Mainoo, Nana Kwaku | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan | Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez | Moore, Ami R | Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar | Mori, Rintaro | Mueller, Ulrich O | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Nand, Devina | Nangia, Vinay | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Park, Jae-Hyun | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Poenaru, Dan | Polanczyk, Guilherme V | Polinder, Suzanne | Pope, Dan | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Refaat, Amany | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sánchez Pimienta, Tania Georgina | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Sayinzoga, Felix | Schneider, Ione J C | Schumacher, Austin | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Shakh-Nazarova, Marina | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Sturua, Lela | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tan, Feng | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Tirschwell, David L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Tran, Bach X | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Undurraga, Eduardo A | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | van Gool, Coen H | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vavilala, Monica S | Venketasubramanian, N | Villalpando, Salvador | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wang, Haidong | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa Z | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El SayedZaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Naghavi, Mohsen | Murray, Christopher J L | Lozano, Rafael
Lancet  2014;384(9947):980-1004.
The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.
We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (−1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (−3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland.
Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMCID: PMC4255481  PMID: 24797575
24.  Influenza vaccination acceptance among diverse pregnant women and its impact on infant immunization 
Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics  2013;9(12):2591-2602.
Objective: We examined pregnant women’s likelihood of vaccinating their infants against seasonal influenza via a randomized message framing study. Using Prospect Theory, we tested gain- and loss-frame message effects and demographic and psychosocial correlates of influenza immunization intention. We also explored interactions among pregnant women who viewed “Contagion” to understand cultural influences on message perception.
Methods: Pregnant women ages 18–50 participated in a randomized message framing study from September 2011 through May 2012 that included exposure to intervention or control messages, coupled with questionnaire completion. Venue-based sampling was used to recruit racial and ethnic minority female participants at locations throughout Atlanta, Georgia. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate key outcomes.
Results: The study population (n = 261) included many lower income (≤ $20 000/yearly household earnings) pregnant participants (69.2%, n = 171) inclusive of Black/African Americans (88.5%, n = 230), Hispanic/Latinas (7.3%, n = 19), and Other/Multicultural women (4.2%, n = 11). Both gain [OR = 2.13, 90% CI: (1.120, 4.048)] and loss-frame messages [OR = 2.02, 90% CI: (1.083, 3.787)] were significantly associated with infant influenza vaccination intention compared with the control condition. Intention to immunize against influenza during pregnancy had a strong effect on intent to immunize infants [OR = 10.83, 90%CI: (4.923, 23.825)]. Those who had seen the feature film “Contagion” (n = 54, 20.69%) viewed gain- and loss-framed messages as appealing (x2 = 6.03, p = 0.05), novel (x2 = 6.24, p = 0.03), and easy to remember (x2 = 16.33, P = 0.0003).
Conclusions: In this population, both gain- and loss-framed messages were positively associated with increased maternal intent to immunize infants against influenza. Message resonance was enhanced among those who saw the film “Contagion.” Additionally, history of immunization was strongly associated with infant immunization intention.
PMCID: PMC4162045  PMID: 24172064
message framing; prospect theory; influenza vaccination; immunization coverage; pregnant women; racial/ethnic minorities; contagion
25.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda 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Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949

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