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1.  Full-term newborns with normal birth weight requiring special care in a resource-constrained setting 
Introduction
The level of clinical care and facilities to support the often more viable full-term newborns with normal birth weight compared with preterm/low birth weight newborns that require special care at birth are likely to be attainable in many resource-poor settings. However, the nature of the required care is not evident in current literature. This study therefore set out to determine maternal and perinatal profile of surviving full-term newborns with normal birth weight in a poorly-resourced setting.
Methods
A retrospective cohort study of newborns with gestational age ≥37 weeks and birth weight ≥2500g recruited in an inner-city maternity hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Primary factors/outcomes were determined by multivariate logistic regression analyses and population attributable risk (PAR).
Results
Of the 2687 full-term newborns with normal birth weight studied, 242 (9.0%) were admitted into special care baby unit (SCBU) representing 53.6% of all SCBU admissions. Fetal distress, low 5-minute Apgar scores, neonatal sepsis and hyperbilirubinemia as well as maternal factors such as primiparity, type of employment, lack of antenatal care and emergency cesarean delivery were predictive of SCBU admission. The leading contributors to SCBU admission were neonatal sepsis (PAR=96.8%), and hyperbilirubinemia (PAR=58.7%).
Conclusion
A significant proportion of newborns requiring special care are full-term with normal birth weight and are associated with modifiable risk factors that can be effectively addressed at appropriately equipped secondary-level hospitals. Prenatal maternal education on avoidable risk factors is warranted.
doi:10.11604/pamj.2013.15.36.576
PMCID: PMC3779460  PMID: 24062865
antenatal care; developing country; emergency cesarean delivery; hyperbilirubinemia; neonatal intensive care; special baby care
2.  “The Right Stuff”: The Global Burden of Disease 
PLoS Medicine  2007;4(2):e84.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040084
PMCID: PMC1808104  PMID: 17326716
3.  Maternal antecedents of infants with abnormal head sizes in southwest Nigeria: A community-based study 
Objective:
To identify the socio-demographic antecedents and pregnancy-related history of infants with abnormal head sizes in a developing country.
Materials and Methods:
An observational study of mother-infant pairs attending routine immunization clinics in an inner-city community in Lagos, Nigeria. Age and gender-specific head circumference was determined with the current Child Growth Standards of the World Health Organization (WHO). Factors independently associated with any abnormal head size (z-score < - 2SD or > 2SD), based on the adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI), were explored with multiple logistic regression analyses.
Results:
Of the 5731 mothers studied, 730 (12.7%) had an offspring with an abnormal head size. In the final regression model, teenage mothers (OR:1.86; CI:1.26 – 2.75), mothers with primary or no education (OR:1.65; P = 0.007), multiple pregnancies (OR:3.88; CI:2.53 – 5.95), and delivery in either private hospitals (OR:1.54; CI:1.22 – 1.95) or residential homes (OR:1.50; CI:1.05 – 2.14), compared to government hospitals, were significantly more likely to have offsprings with abnormal head sizes.
Conclusions:
Community-oriented public health education, targeting prospective mothers with multiple pregnancies, teenage girls, and women with little or no formal education on the potential risk of delivery outside public hospitals, may curtail the burden of abnormal head size of their offspring and reduce the pressure on the already overstretched rehabilitation services in resource-poor countries.
doi:10.4103/2230-8229.98298
PMCID: PMC3410174  PMID: 22870415
Developing country; early detection; growth monitoring; head circumference; WHO growth standard
4.  Perinatal Outcomes of Multiple Births in Southwest Nigeria 
Compared to singletons, multiple births are associated with a substantially-higher risk of maternal and perinatal mortality worldwide. However, little evidence exists on the perinatal profile and risk of neurodevelopmental disabilities among the survivors, especially in developing countries. This cross-sectional study, therefore, set out to determine the adverse perinatal outcomes that are potential markers for neurodevelopmental disabilities in infants with multiple gestations in a developing country. In total, 4,573 mothers, and their 4,718 surviving offspring in an inner-city maternity hospital in Lagos, Nigeria, from May 2005 to December 2007, were recruited. Comparisons of maternal and infant outcomes between single and multiple births were performed using multivariable logistic regression and generalized estimation equation analyses. Odds ratio (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) for each marker were estimated. Of the 4,573 deliveries, there were 4,416 (96.6%) singletons and 157 (3.4%) multiples, comprising 296 twins and six triplets together (6.4% of all live 4,718 infants). After adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity, occupation, parity, and antenatal care, multiple gestations were associated with increased risks of hypertensive disorders and caesarean delivery. Similarly, after adjusting for potential maternal confounders, multiple births were associated with low five-minute Apgar score (OR: 1.47, 95% CI 1.13-1.93), neonatal sepsis (OR: 2.16, 95% CI 1.28-3.65), severe hyperbilirubinaemia (OR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.00-2.56), and admission to a special-care baby unit (OR: 1.56, 95% CI 1.12-2.17) underpinned by preterm delivery before 34 weeks (OR: 1.91, 95% CI 1.14-3.19), birthweight of less than 2,500 g (OR: 6.45, 95% CI 4.80-8.66), and intrauterine growth restriction (OR: 9.04, 95% CI 6.62-12.34). Overall, the results suggest that, in resource-poor settings, infants of multiple gestations are associated with a significantly-elevated risk of adverse perinatal outcomes. Since these perinatal outcomes are related to the increased risk of later neurodevelopmental disabilities, multiple-birth infants merit close developmental surveillance for timely intervention.
PMCID: PMC3259727  PMID: 22283038
Cross-sectional studies; Multiple gestations; Perinatal outcomes; Retrospective studies; Twins; Nigeria
5.  Addressing the Global Neglect of Childhood Hearing Impairment in Developing Countries 
PLoS Medicine  2007;4(4):e74.
The number of children worldwide with hearing impairment is increasing, and these children face a number of social and educational obstacles.
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0040074
PMCID: PMC1831717  PMID: 17407384
6.  Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Kassebaum, Nicholas J | Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia | Coggeshall, Megan S | Shackelford, Katya A | Steiner, Caitlyn | Heuton, Kyle R | Gonzalez-Medina, Diego | Barber, Ryan | Huynh, Chantal | Dicker, Daniel | Templin, Tara | Wolock, Timothy M | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abd-Allah, Foad | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie E | Akena, Dickens | Alasfoor, Deena | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alla, François | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad A | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Antonio, Carl A T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asad, Majed Masoud | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Basu, Arindam | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku J | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Breitborde, Nicholas | Cárdenas, Rosario | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Chang, Jung-Chen | Che, Xuan | Christophi, Costas A | Chugh, Sumeet S | Cirillo, Massimo | Colquhoun, Samantha M | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | da Costa Leite, Iuri | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Degenhardt, Louisa | De Leo, Diego | del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Dessalegn, Muluken | deVeber, Gabrielle A | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Dorrington, Rob E | Driscoll, Tim R | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Felicio, Manuela Mendonca | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | França, Elisabeth B | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gambashidze, Ketevan | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gibney, Katherine B | Giroud, Maurice | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | González-Castell, Dinorah | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Gupta, Rajeev | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Heredia Pi, Ileana B | Hoek, Hans W | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Husseini, Abdullatif | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Inoue, Manami | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jahangir, Eiman | Jee, Sun Ha | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kan, Haidong | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazanjan, Konstantin | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kwan, Gene | Lai, Taavi | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lam, Hilton | Lansingh, Van C | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Xiaohong | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | Liang, Juan | Liang, Xiaofeng | Lim, Stephen S | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | London, Stephanie J | Lotufo, Paulo A | Ma, Jixiang | Ma, Stefan | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Mainoo, Nana Kwaku | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan | Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez | Moore, Ami R | Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar | Mori, Rintaro | Mueller, Ulrich O | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Nand, Devina | Nangia, Vinay | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Park, Jae-Hyun | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Poenaru, Dan | Polanczyk, Guilherme V | Polinder, Suzanne | Pope, Dan | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Refaat, Amany | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sánchez Pimienta, Tania Georgina | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Sayinzoga, Felix | Schneider, Ione J C | Schumacher, Austin | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Shakh-Nazarova, Marina | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Sturua, Lela | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tan, Feng | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Tirschwell, David L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Tran, Bach X | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Undurraga, Eduardo A | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | van Gool, Coen H | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vavilala, Monica S | Venketasubramanian, N | Villalpando, Salvador | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wang, Haidong | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa Z | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El SayedZaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Naghavi, Mohsen | Murray, Christopher J L | Lozano, Rafael
Lancet  2014;384(9947):980-1004.
Summary
Background
The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.
Methods
We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
Findings
292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (−1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (−3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland.
Interpretation
Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6
PMCID: PMC4255481  PMID: 24797575
7.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda 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Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
Summary
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Findings
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Interpretation
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949
8.  Maternal satisfaction with a novel filtered-sunlight phototherapy for newborn jaundice in Southwest Nigeria 
BMC Pediatrics  2014;14:180.
Background
In many resource-limited settings, the availability of effective phototherapy for jaundiced infants is frequently hampered by lack of, or inadequate resources to acquire and maintain conventional electric-powered phototherapy devices. This study set out to ascertain maternal experience and satisfaction with a novel treatment of infants with significant hyperbilirubinemia using filtered sunlight phototherapy (FSPT) in a tropical setting with irregular access to effective conventional phototherapy.
Methods
A cross-sectional satisfaction survey was conducted among mothers of jaundiced infants treated with FSPT in an inner-city maternity hospital in Lagos, Nigeria from November 2013 to March 2014. Mothers’ experience during treatment was elicited with a pretested questionnaire consisting of closed and open-ended items. Satisfaction was rated on a five-point Likert scale. Correlates of overall maternal satisfaction were explored with descriptive and inferential non-parametric statistics.
Results
A total of 191 mothers were surveyed, 77 (40%) of whom had no prior knowledge of neonatal jaundice. Maternal satisfaction was highest for quality of nursing care received (mean: 4.72 ± 0.55, median: 5[IQR: 5–5]) and lowest for physical state of the test environment (mean: 3.85 ± 0.74, median: 4[IQR: 3–4]). The overall rating (mean: 4.17 ± 0.58, median: 4[IQR: 4–5]) and the observed effect of FSPT on the babies (mean: 4.34 ± 0.58, 4[IQR: 4–5]) were quite satisfactory. FSPT experience was significantly correlated with the adequacy of information received (p < 0.0005), test environment (p = 0.002) and the observed effect of FSPT on the child (p < 0.0005). Almost all mothers (98.4%) indicated willingness to use FSPT in future or recommend it to others, although some (30 or 15.7%) disliked the idea of exposing newborns to sunlight.
Conclusions
Mothers of jaundiced newborns in this population are likely to be satisfied with FSPT where it is inevitable as an alternative to conventional electric-powered phototherapy. Adequate information, good test environment and friendly nursing care must be ensured for satisfactory maternal experience.
doi:10.1186/1471-2431-14-180
PMCID: PMC4099408  PMID: 25012576
Neonatal jaundice; Newborn care; Sunlight exposure; Patient satisfaction; Phototherapy; Developing country
9.  Pattern and predictors of maternal care-seeking practices for severe neonatal jaundice in Nigeria: a multi-centre survey 
Background
Nigeria is frequently associated with disproportionately high rates of severe neonatal jaundice (NNJ) underpinned by widespread Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency. Timely and appropriate treatment of NNJ is crucial for preventing the associated morbidity and neuro-developmental sequelae. Since mothers are likely to be the first mostly to observe the onset of severe illness in their newborns, we set out to identify the pattern and predictors of maternal care-seeking practices for NNJ in three culturally-distinct settings in Nigeria.
Methods
A multi-centre study was conducted among women attending antenatal clinics in Abuja, Lagos and Port Harcourt from October 2011 to April 2012 using a pretested questionnaire. Predictors of awareness of NNJ, accurate recognition of NNJ, use of potentially harmful therapies and preference for future hospital treatment were determined with multivariate logistic regressions.
Results
Of the 488 participants drawn from the three locations, 431 (88.3%) reported awareness of NNJ, predominantly (57.8%) attributable to professional health workers. A total of 309 (63.3%) mothers with prior knowledge of NNJ claimed they could recognise NNJ, but 270 (87.4%) from this group accurately identified the features of NNJ. Multiparous mothers (Adjusted odds ratio, AOR:4.05; 95% CI:1.75-9.36), those with tertiary education (AOR:1.91; CI:1.01-3.61), and those residing in Lagos (AOR:2.96; CI:1.10-7.97) were more likely to have had prior knowledge of NNJ. Similarly, multiparous mothers (AOR:2.38; CI:1.27-4.46) and those with tertiary education (AOR:1.92; CI:1.21-3.05) were more likely to recognise an infant with jaundice accurately. Mothers educated by health workers were 40% less likely to resort to potentially harmful treatment for NNJ (AOR:0.60; CI:0.39-0.92) but more likely to seek hospital treatment in future for an infant suspected with jaundice (AOR:1.88; CI:1.20-2.95).
Conclusions
Women with tertiary education and multiparous mothers who attend routine antenatal clinics are more likely than less educated women, to be associated with appropriate care-seeking practices for infants with NNJ regardless of the socio-cultural setting. Systematic efforts by professional health workers are warranted, as part of routine antenatal care, to engage other groups of mothers especially those likely to indulge in self-use of potentially harmful therapies.
doi:10.1186/1472-6963-14-192
PMCID: PMC4032169  PMID: 24774506
Neonatal jaundice; Newborn care; Health-seeking behaviour; Health promotion; Haemolytic agents; Self-medication; Developing countries
10.  Treatment of neonatal jaundice with filtered sunlight in Nigerian neonates: study protocol of a non-inferiority, randomized controlled trial 
Trials  2013;14:446.
Background
Severe neonatal jaundice and its progression to kernicterus is a leading cause of death and disability among newborns in poorly-resourced countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. The standard treatment for jaundice using conventional phototherapy (CPT) with electric artificial blue light sources is often hampered by the lack of (functional) CPT devices due either to financial constraints or erratic electrical power. In an attempt to make phototherapy (PT) more readily available for the treatment of pathologic jaundice in underserved tropical regions, we set out to test the hypothesis that filtered sunlight phototherapy (FS-PT), in which potentially harmful ultraviolet and infrared rays are appropriately screened, will be as efficacious as CPT.
Methods/design
This prospective, non-blinded randomized controlled non-inferiority trial seeks to enroll infants with elevated total serum/plasma bilirubin (TSB, defined as 3 mg/dl below the level recommended by the American Academy of Pediatrics for high-risk infants requiring PT) who will be randomly and equally assigned to receive FS-PT or CPT for a total of 616 days at an inner-city maternity hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Two FS-PT canopies with pre-tested films will be used. One canopy with a film that transmits roughly 33% blue light (wavelength range: 400 to 520 nm) will be used during sunny periods of a day. Another canopy with a film that transmits about 79% blue light will be used during overcast periods of the day. The infants will be moved from one canopy to the other as needed during the day with the goal of keeping the blue light irradiance level above 8 μW/cm2/nm.
Primary outcome: FS-PT will be as efficacious as CPT in reducing the rate of rise in bilirubin levels. Secondary outcome: The number of infants requiring exchange transfusion under FS-PT will not be more than those under CPT.
Conclusion
This novel study offers the prospect of an effective treatment for infants at risk of severe neonatal jaundice and avoidable exchange transfusion in poorly-resourced settings without access to (reliable) CPT in the tropics.
Trial registration
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01434810
doi:10.1186/1745-6215-14-446
PMCID: PMC3879162  PMID: 24373547
Filtered sunlight phototherapy; Hyperbilirubinemia; Developing country; Low-cost technologies; Irradiance; Africa
11.  Permanent Hearing Loss among Professional Spice Grinders in an Urban Community in Southwest Nigeria 
This study set out to determine the pattern and predictors of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) among small-scale and self-employed chili pepper grinders in Lagos, Southwest Nigeria. Audiological evaluation was conducted for all participants after noise level measurement. Of 136 studied, 85 (62.5%) were confirmed with slight-to-moderate NIHL. Mean age was 40.2 years, mean years spent as grinders was 9.3 years and mean hours spent daily at work was 13.3 hours. The mean age of those with NIHL was significantly higher than those without. Spending over 10 years in commercial grinding and working ≤12 hours daily were predictive of NIHL. Questionnaire-based screening using symptoms of NIHL was associated with a sensitivity of 44.7%, specificity of 62.7%, and positive predictive value of 66.7%. In conclusion, pepper grinding is associated with high/excessive noise levels and NIHL. Hearing conservation program incorporating engineering modification of locally fabricated grinders is warranted in this and similar populations in developing countries.
doi:10.1007/s11524-011-9634-x
PMCID: PMC3284590  PMID: 22173475
Developing country; Informal sector; Noise-induced hearing loss; Occupational noise; Urbanization
12.  Paediatricians’ perspectives on global health priorities for newborn care in a developing country: a national survey from Nigeria 
Background
An understanding of the perception of paediatricians as key stakeholders in child healthcare delivery and the degree of congruence with current investment priorities is crucial in accelerating progress towards the attainment of global targets for child survival and overall health in developing countries. This study therefore elicited the views of paediatricians on current global priorities for newborn health in Nigeria as possible guide for policy makers.
Methods
Paediatric consultants and residents in the country were surveyed nationally between February and March 2011 using a questionnaire requiring the ranking of nine prominent and other neonatal conditions based separately on hospital admissions, mortality, morbidity and disability as well as based on all health indices in order of importance or disease burden. Responses were analysed with Friedman test and differences between subgroups of respondents with Mann-Whitney U test.
Results
Valid responses were received from 152 (65.8%) of 231 eligible physicians. Preterm birth/low birthweight ranked highest by all measures except for birth asphyxia which ranked highest for disability. Neonatal jaundice ranked next to sepsis by all measures except for disability and above tetanus except mortality. Preterm birth/low birthweight, birth asphyxia, sepsis, jaundice and meningitis ranked highest by composite measures while jaundice had comparable rating with sepsis. Birth trauma was most frequently cited under other unspecified conditions. There were no significant differences in ranking between consultants and residents except for birth asphyxia in relation to hospital admissions and morbidity as well as sepsis and tetanus in relation to mortality.
Conclusions
Current global priorities for neonatal survival in Nigeria largely accord with paediatricians’ views except for neonatal jaundice which is commonly subsumed under “other“ or "miscellaneous" neonatal conditions. While the importance of these priority conditions extends beyond mortality thus suggesting the need for a broader conceptualisation of newborn health to reflect the current realities, paediatricians should be actively engaged in advancing the attainment of global priorities for child survival and health in this population.
doi:10.1186/1472-698X-12-9
PMCID: PMC3519520  PMID: 22748076
Newborn health; Global health; Developing country; Health priorities
13.  Pattern and determinants of BCG immunisation delays in a sub-Saharan African community 
Background
Childhood immunisation is recognised worldwide as an essential component of health systems and an indispensable indicator of quality of care for vaccine-preventable diseases. While performance of immunisation programmes is more commonly measured by coverage, ensuring that every child is immunised at the earliest/appropriate age is an important public health goal. This study therefore set out to determine the pattern and predictors of Bacille de Calmette-Guérin (BCG) immunisation delays in the first three months of life in a Sub-Saharan African community where BCG is scheduled at birth in order to facilitate necessary changes in current policy and practices for improved services.
Methods
A cross-sectional study in which immunisation delays among infants aged 0-3 months attending community-based BCG clinics in Lagos, Nigeria over a 2-year period from July 2005 to June 2007 were assessed by survival analysis and associated factors determined by multivariable logistic regression. Population attributable risk (PAR) was computed for the predictors of delays.
Results
BCG was delayed beyond three months in 31.6% of all eligible infants. Of 5171 infants enrolled, 3380 (65.4%) were immunised within two weeks and a further 1265 (24.5%) by six weeks. A significantly higher proportion of infants born in hospitals were vaccinated in the first six weeks compared to those born outside hospitals. Undernourishment was predictive of delays beyond 2 and 6 weeks while treated hyperbilirubinaemia was associated with decreased odds for any delays. Lack of antenatal care and multiple gestations were also predictive of delays beyond 6 weeks. Undernourishment was associated with the highest PAR for delays beyond 2 weeks (18.7%) and 6 weeks (20.8%).
Conclusions
BCG immunisation is associated with significant delays in this setting and infants at increased risk of delays can be identified and supported early possibly through improved maternal uptake of antenatal care. Combining BCG with subsequent immunisation(s) at 6 weeks for infants who missed the BCG may be considered.
doi:10.1186/1478-4505-8-1
PMCID: PMC2821326  PMID: 20157426
14.  Maternal and neonatal factors associated with mode of delivery under a universal newborn hearing screening programme in Lagos, Nigeria 
Background
Emerging evidence from a recent pilot universal newborn hearing screening (UNHS) programme suggests that the burden of obstetric complications associated with mode of delivery is not limited to maternal and perinatal mortality but may also include outcomes that undermine optimal early childhood development of the surviving newborns. However, the potential pathways for this association have not been reported particularly in the context of a resource-poor setting. This study therefore set out to establish the pattern of delivery and the associated neonatal outcomes under a UNHS programme.
Methods
A cross-sectional study in which all consenting mothers who delivered in an inner-city tertiary maternity hospital in Lagos, Nigeria from May 2005 to December 2007 were enrolled during the UNHS programme. Socio-demographic, obstetric and neonatal factors independently associated with vaginal, elective and emergency caesarean deliveries were determined using multinomial logistic regression analyses.
Results
Of the 4615 mothers enrolled, 2584 (56.0%) deliveries were vaginal, 1590 (34.4%) emergency caesarean and 441 (9.6%) elective caesarean section. Maternal age, parity, social class and all obstetric factors including lack of antenatal care, maternal HIV and multiple gestations were associated with increased risk of emergency caesarean delivery compared with vaginal delivery. Only parity, lack of antenatal care and prolonged/obstructed labour were associated with increased risk of emergency compared with elective caesarean delivery. Infants delivered by vaginal method or by emergency caesarean section were more likely to be associated with the risk of sensorineural hearing loss but less likely to be associated with hyperbilirubinaemia compared with infants delivered by elective caesarean section. Emergency caesarean delivery was also associated with male gender, low five-minute Apgar scores and admission into special care baby unit compared with vaginal or elective caesarean delivery.
Conclusions
The vast majority of caesarean delivery in this population occur as emergencies and are associated with socio-demographic factors as well as several obstetric complications. Mode of delivery is also associated with the risk of sensorineural hearing loss and other adverse birth outcomes that lie on the causal pathways for potential developmental deficits.
doi:10.1186/1471-2393-9-41
PMCID: PMC2749799  PMID: 19732443
15.  Community-based infant hearing screening in a developing country: parental uptake of follow-up services 
BMC Public Health  2009;9:66.
Background
Universal newborn hearing screening is now considered an essential public health care for the early detection of disabling life-long childhood hearing impairment globally. However, like any health interventions in early childhood, parental support and participation is essential for achieving satisfactory uptake of services. This study set out to determine maternal/infant socio-demographic factors associated with follow-up compliance in community-based infant hearing screening programmes in a developing country.
Methods
After health educational/counselling sessions, infants attending routine childhood immunisation clinics at four primary care centres were enrolled into a two-stage infant hearing screening programme consisting of a first-stage screening with transient-evoked otoacoustic emissions and second-stage screening with automated auditory brainstem response. Infants referred after the second-stage screening were scheduled for diagnostic evaluation within three months. Maternal and infant factors associated with completion of the hearing screening protocol were determined with multivariable logistic regression analysis.
Results
No mother declined participation during the study period. A total of 285 out of 2,003 eligible infants were referred after the first-stage screening out of which 148 (51.9%) did not return for the second-stage, while 32 (39.0%) of the 82 infants scheduled for diagnostic evaluation defaulted. Mothers who delivered outside hospitals were significantly more likely to return for follow-up screening than those who delivered in hospitals (Odds ratio: 1.62; 95% confidence intervals: 0.98 – 2.70; p = 0.062). No other factors correlated with follow-up compliance for screening and diagnostic services.
Conclusion
Place of delivery was the only factor that correlated albeit marginally with infant hearing screening compliance in this population. The likely influence of issues such as the number of return visits for follow-up services, ineffective tracking system and the prevailing unfavourable cultural perception towards childhood deafness on non-compliance independently or through these factors warrant further investigation.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-9-66
PMCID: PMC2656536  PMID: 19236718
17.  Progress towards early detection services for infants with hearing loss in developing countries 
Background
Early detection of infants with permanent hearing loss through infant hearing screening is recognised and routinely offered as a vital component of early childhood care in developed countries. This article investigates the initiatives and progress towards early detection of infants with hearing loss in developing countries against the backdrop of the dearth of epidemiological data from this region.
Methods
A cross-sectional, descriptive study based on responses to a structured questionnaire eliciting information on the nature and scope of early hearing detection services; strategies for financing services; parental and professional attitudes towards screening; and the performance of screening programmes. Responses were complemented with relevant data from the internet and PubMed/Medline.
Results
Pilot projects using objective screening tests are on-going in a growing number of countries. Screening services are provided at public/private hospitals and/or community health centres and at no charge only in a few countries. Attitudes amongst parents and health care workers are typically positive towards such programmes. Screening efficiency, as measured by referral rate at discharge, was generally found to be lower than desired but several programmes achieved other international benchmarks. Coverage is generally above 90% but poor follow-up rates remain a challenge in some countries. The mean age of diagnosis is usually less than six months, even for community-based programmes.
Conclusion
Lack of adequate resources by many governments may limit rapid nationwide introduction of services for early hearing detection and intervention, but may not deter such services altogether. Parents may be required to pay for services in some settings in line with the existing practice where healthcare services are predominantly financed by out-of-pocket spending rather than public funding. However, governments and their international development partners need to complement current voluntary initiatives through systematic scaling-up of public awareness and requisite manpower development towards sustainable service capacities at all levels of healthcare delivery.
doi:10.1186/1472-6963-7-14
PMCID: PMC1802737  PMID: 17266763
19.  Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia and Rhesus disease of the newborn: incidence and impairment estimates for 2010 at regional and global levels 
Pediatric Research  2013;74(Suppl 1):86-100.
Background:
Rhesus (Rh) disease and extreme hyperbilirubinemia (EHB) result in neonatal mortality and long-term neurodevelopmental impairment, yet there are no estimates of their burden.
Methods:
Systematic reviews and meta-analyses were undertaken of national prevalence, mortality, and kernicterus due to Rh disease and EHB. We applied a compartmental model to estimate neonatal survivors and impairment cases for 2010.
Results:
Twenty-four million (18% of 134 million live births ≥32 wk gestational age from 184 countries; uncertainty range: 23–26 million) were at risk for neonatal hyperbilirubinemia-related adverse outcomes. Of these, 480,700 (0.36%) had either Rh disease (373,300; uncertainty range: 271,800–477,500) or developed EHB from other causes (107,400; uncertainty range: 57,000–131,000), with a 24% risk for death (114,100; uncertainty range: 59,700–172,000), 13% for kernicterus (75,400), and 11% for stillbirths. Three-quarters of mortality occurred in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Kernicterus with Rh disease ranged from 38, 28, 28, and 25/100,000 live births for Eastern Europe/Central Asian, sub-Saharan African, South Asian, and Latin American regions, respectively. More than 83% of survivors with kernicterus had one or more impairments.
Conclusion:
Failure to prevent Rh sensitization and manage neonatal hyperbilirubinemia results in 114,100 avoidable neonatal deaths and many children grow up with disabilities. Proven solutions remain underused, especially in low-income countries.
doi:10.1038/pr.2013.208
PMCID: PMC3873706  PMID: 24366465

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