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1.  Risk Factors for Hospital and Long-Term Mortality of Critically Ill Elderly Patients Admitted to an Intensive Care Unit 
BioMed Research International  2014;2014:960575.
Background. Data on long-term outcomes of elderly (≥65 years) patients in ICU are sparse. Materials and Methods. Adult patients (n = 1563, 45.4% elderly) admitted over 28 months were analyzed by competing risks regression model to determine independent factors related to in-hospital and long-term mortality. Results. 414 (26.5%) and 337 (21.6%) patients died in-hospital and during the 52 months following discharge, respectively; the elderly group had higher mortality during both periods. After discharge, elderly patients had 2.3 times higher mortality compared to the general population of the same age-group. In-hospital mortality was independently associated with mechanical ventilation (subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) 2.74), vasopressors (SHR 2.56), neurological disease (SHR 1.77), and Mortality Prediction Model II score (SHR 1.01) regardless of age and with malignancy (SHR, hematological 3.65, nonhematological 3.4) and prior renal replacement therapy (RRT, SHR 2.21) only in the elderly. Long-term mortality was associated with low hemoglobin concentration (SHR 0.94), airway disease (SHR 2.23), and malignancy (SHR hematological 1.11, nonhematological 2.31) regardless of age and with comorbidities especially among the nonelderly. Conclusions. Following discharge, elderly ICU patients have higher mortality compared to the nonelderly and general population. In the elderly group, prior RRT and malignancy contribute additionally to in-hospital mortality risk. In the long-term, comorbidities (age-related), anemia, airway disease, and malignancy were significantly associated with mortality.
PMCID: PMC4280808  PMID: 25580439
2.  Prognostic significance of thymidylate synthase, dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase and thymidine phosphorylase protein expression in colorectal cancer patients treated with or without 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy 
Low tumour expression levels of thymidylate synthase (TS), dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) and thymidine phosphorylase (TP) have been linked with improved outcome for colorectal cancer (CRC) patients treated with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU). It is unclear whether this occurs because such tumours have better prognosis or they are more sensitive to 5-FU treatment.
Patients and methods
Associations between TS, DPD and TP levels, determined by tissue microarrays and immunohistochemistry, and survival was evaluated in 945 CRC patients according to treatment status.
Low TS and DPD expression associated with worse prognosis in stage II [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) (1.09–2.63) and HR = 1.92 (95% CI 1.23–2.94), respectively] and stage III CRC patients treated by surgery alone [HR = 1.39 (95% CI 0.92–2.13) and HR = 1.49 (95% CI 1.02–2.17), respectively]. Low TS, DPD and TP associated with trends for better outcome in stage III patients treated with 5-FU [HR = 0.81 (95% CI 0.49–1.33), HR = 0.70 (95% CI 0.42–1.15) and HR = 0.66 (95% CI 0.39–1.12), respectively].
Low TS and DPD expression are prognostic for worse outcome in CRC patients treated by surgery alone, whereas low TS, DPD and TP expression are prognostic for better outcome in patients treated with 5-FU chemotherapy. These results provide indirect evidence that low TS, DPD and TP protein expression are predictive of good response to 5-FU chemotherapy.
PMCID: PMC2931808  PMID: 18245778
colorectal cancer; fluorouracil; predictive; prognostic; thymidylate synthase
4.  Surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy vs concurrent chemoradiotherapy in stage III/IV nonmetastatic squamous cell head and neck cancer: a randomised comparison 
British Journal of Cancer  2005;93(3):279-286.
We compared concurrent combination chemotherapy and radiotherapy with surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy in patients with stage III/IV nonmetastatic squamous cell head and neck cancer. Patients with non-nasopharyngeal and nonsalivary resectable squamous cell head and neck cancer were randomised to receive either surgery followed by adjuvant radiotherapy (60 Gy over 30 fractions) or concurrent combination chemotherapy and radiotherapy (66 Gy in 33 fractions). Combination chemotherapy comprised two cycles of i.v. cisplatin 20 mg m− 2 day− 1 and i.v. 5-fluorouracil 1000 mg m− 2 day− 1, both to run over 96 h given on days 1 and 28 of the radiotherapy. A total of 119 patients were randomised. At a median follow-up of 6 years, there was no significant difference in the 3-year disease-free survival rate between the surgery and concurrent chemoradiotherapy (50 vs 40% respectively). The overall organ preservation rate or avoidance of surgery to primary site was 45%. Those with laryngeal/hypopharyngeal disease subsite had a higher organ-preservation rate than the rest (68 vs 30%). Combination chemotherapy and concurrent irradiation with salvage surgery was not superior to conventional surgery and postoperative radiotherapy for resectable advanced squamous cell head and neck cancer. However, this form of treatment schedule with a view to organ-preservation can be attempted especially for those with laryngeal/hypopharyngeal and possibly oropharyngeal disease subsites.
PMCID: PMC2361563  PMID: 16012523
randomised; squamous cell head and neck cancer; chemotherapy
5.  A Bayesian re-assessment of two Phase II trials of gemcitabine in metastatic nasopharyngeal cancer 
British Journal of Cancer  2002;86(6):843-850.
The Simon two-stage minimax design is a popular statistical design used in Phase II clinical trials. The analysis of the data arising from the design typically involves the use of frequentist statistics. This paper presents an alternative, Bayesian, approach to the design and analysis of Phase II clinical trials. In particular, we consider how a Bayesian approach could have affected the design, analysis and interpretation of two parallel Phase II trials of the National Cancer Centre Singapore, on the activity of gemcitabine in chemotherapy-naïve and in previously treated patients with metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. We begin by explaining the Bayesian methodology and contrasting it with the frequentist approach. We then carry out a Bayesian analysis of the trial results. The conclusions drawn using the Bayesian approach were in general agreement with those obtained from the frequentist analysis. However they had the advantage of allowing for different and potentially more useful interpretations to be made regarding the trial results, as well as for the incorporation of external sources of information. In particular, using a Bayesian trial design, we were able to take into account the results of the parallel trial results when deciding whether to continue each trial beyond the interim stage.
British Journal of Cancer (2002) 86, 843–850. DOI: 10.1038/sj/bjc/6600199
© 2002 Cancer Research UK
PMCID: PMC2364147  PMID: 11953813
Bayesian; Phase II clinical trial; gemcitabine; nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Results 1-5 (5)