Background

Patient survival following severe burn injury is largely determined by burn size. Modern developments in burn care have tremendously improved survival and outcomes. However, no large analysis on outcomes in pediatric burn patients with current treatment regimen exists. This study was designed to identify the burn size presently associated with significant increases in morbidity and mortality in pediatric burn patients.

Methods

Single center prospective observational cohort study utilizing the clinical data of severely burned pediatric patients admitted between 1998 and 2009. This study included 952 severely burned pediatric patients with burns over at least 30% of their total body surface area (TBSA). Patients were stratified by burn size in 10% increments, ranging from 30 to 100%, with a secondary assignment made according to the outcome of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Statistical analysis was performed using Student’s t-test, χ2 test, logistic regression and ROC analysis, as appropriate, with significance set at p<0.05.

Findings

All groups were comparable in age (age in years: 30–39: 6.1±5.1, 40–49: 7.1±5.2, 50–59: 7.6±5.1, 60–69: 7.2±5.1, 70–79: 8.3±5.9, 80–89: 8.4±5.6, 90–100: 9.6±5.4), and gender distribution (male: 30–39: 68%, 40–49: 64%, 50–59: 65%, 60–69: 59%, 70–79: 71%, 80–89: 62%, 90–100: 82%). Mortality (30–39: 3%, 40–49: 3%, 50–59: 7%, 60–69: 16%, 70–79: 22%, 80–89: 35%, 90–100: 55%), multi-organ failure (30–39: 6%, 40–49: 6%, 50–59: 12%, 60–69: 27%, 70–79: 29%, 80–89: 44%, 90–100: 45%), and sepsis (30–39: 2%, 40–49: 5%, 50–59: 6%, 60–69: 15%, 70–79: 13%, 80–89: 22%, 90–100: 26%), increased significantly (p<0.001) among the groups and at a threshold of 62% TBSA. Comparison of patients with burns larger than 62% with those smaller showed significant differences in inflammatory (Cytokines), acute phase (CRP) and hypermetabolic responses (REE), as well as organ function (p<0.05).

Interpretation

We established that in a modern pediatric burn care setting, a burn size of approximately 60% TBSA represents a crucial threshold for post-burn morbidity and mortality. Based on these findings, we recommend that pediatric burn patients over 60% TBSA burn should be immediately transferred to a specialized burn center. Furthermore, at the burn center patients should be treated with increased vigilance and enhanced therapies recognizing the increased risk for poor outcome associated with this burn size.

Summary

Background

For women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive early breast cancer, treatment with tamoxifen for 5 years substantially reduces the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the first 15 years after diagnosis. We aimed to assess the further effects of continuing tamoxifen to 10 years instead of stopping at 5 years.

Methods

In the worldwide Adjuvant Tamoxifen: Longer Against Shorter (ATLAS) trial, 12 894 women with early breast cancer who had completed 5 years of treatment with tamoxifen were randomly allocated to continue tamoxifen to 10 years or stop at 5 years (open control). Allocation (1:1) was by central computer, using minimisation. After entry (between 1996 and 2005), yearly follow-up forms recorded any recurrence, second cancer, hospital admission, or death. We report effects on breast cancer outcomes among the 6846 women with ER-positive disease, and side-effects among all women (with positive, negative, or unknown ER status). Long-term follow-up still continues. This study is registered, number ISRCTN19652633.

Findings

Among women with ER-positive disease, allocation to continue tamoxifen reduced the risk of breast cancer recurrence (617 recurrences in 3428 women allocated to continue vs 711 in 3418 controls, p=0·002), reduced breast cancer mortality (331 deaths vs 397 deaths, p=0·01), and reduced overall mortality (639 deaths vs 722 deaths, p=0·01). The reductions in adverse breast cancer outcomes appeared to be less extreme before than after year 10 (recurrence rate ratio [RR] 0·90 [95% CI 0·79–1·02] during years 5–9 and 0·75 [0·62–0·90] in later years; breast cancer mortality RR 0·97 [0·79–1·18] during years 5–9 and 0·71 [0·58–0·88] in later years). The cumulative risk of recurrence during years 5–14 was 21·4% for women allocated to continue versus 25·1% for controls; breast cancer mortality during years 5–14 was 12·2% for women allocated to continue versus 15·0% for controls (absolute mortality reduction 2·8%). Treatment allocation seemed to have no effect on breast cancer outcome among 1248 women with ER-negative disease, and an intermediate effect among 4800 women with unknown ER status. Among all 12 894 women, mortality without recurrence from causes other than breast cancer was little affected (691 deaths without recurrence in 6454 women allocated to continue versus 679 deaths in 6440 controls; RR 0·99 [0·89–1·10]; p=0·84). For the incidence (hospitalisation or death) rates of specific diseases, RRs were as follows: pulmonary embolus 1·87 (95% CI 1·13–3·07, p=0·01 [including 0·2% mortality in both treatment groups]), stroke 1·06 (0·83–1·36), ischaemic heart disease 0·76 (0·60–0·95, p=0·02), and endometrial cancer 1·74 (1·30–2·34, p=0·0002). The cumulative risk of endometrial cancer during years 5–14 was 3·1% (mortality 0·4%) for women allocated to continue versus 1·6% (mortality 0·2%) for controls (absolute mortality increase 0·2%).

Interpretation

For women with ER-positive disease, continuing tamoxifen to 10 years rather than stopping at 5 years produces a further reduction in recurrence and mortality, particularly after year 10. These results, taken together with results from previous trials of 5 years of tamoxifen treatment versus none, suggest that 10 years of tamoxifen treatment can approximately halve breast cancer mortality during the second decade after diagnosis.

Funding

Cancer Research UK, UK Medical Research Council, AstraZeneca UK, US Army, EU-Biomed.

Summary

Background

Membranous nephropathy leads to end-stage renal disease in more than 20% of patients. Although immunosuppressive therapy benefits some patients, trial evidence for the subset of patients with declining renal function is not available. We aimed to assess whether immunosuppression preserves renal function in patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy with declining renal function.

Methods

This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in 37 renal units across the UK. We recruited patients (18–75 years) with biopsy-proven idiopathic membranous nephropathy, a plasma creatinine concentration of less than 300 μmol/L, and at least a 20% decline in excretory renal function measured in the 2 years before study entry, based on at least three measurements over a period of 3 months or longer. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) by a random number table to receive supportive treatment only, supportive treatment plus 6 months of alternating cycles of prednisolone and chlorambucil, or supportive treatment plus 12 months of ciclosporin. The primary outcome was a further 20% decline in renal function from baseline, analysed by intention to treat. The trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number 99959692.

Findings

We randomly assigned 108 patients, 33 of whom received prednisolone and chlorambucil, 37 ciclosporin, and 38 supportive therapy alone. Two patients (one who received ciclosporin and one who received supportive therapy) were ineligible, so were not included in the intention-to-treat analysis, and 45 patients deviated from protocol before study end, mostly as a result of minor dose adjustments. Follow up was until primary endpoint or for minimum of 3 years if primary endpoint was not reached. Risk of further 20% decline in renal function was significantly lower in the prednisolone and chlorambucil group than in the supportive care group (19 [58%] of 33 patients reached endpoint vs 31 [84%] of 37, hazard ratio [HR] 0·44 [95% CI 0·24–0·78]; p=0·0042); risk did not differ between the ciclosporin (29 [81%] of 36) and supportive treatment only groups (HR 1·17 [0·70–1·95]; p=0·54), but did differ significantly across all three groups (p=0·003). Serious adverse events were frequent in all three groups but were higher in the prednisolone and chlorambucil group than in the supportive care only group (56 events vs 24 events; p=0·048).

Interpretation

For the subset of patients with idiopathic membranous nephropathy and deteriorating excretory renal function, 6 months' therapy with prednisolone and chlorambucil is the treatment approach best supported by our evidence. Ciclosporin should be avoided in this subset.

Funding

Medical Research Council, Novartis, Renal Association, Kidney Research UK.

Background

Type 1 diabetes (T1DM) is an autoimmune disease leading to destruction of insulin producing beta cells and life-long requirement for insulin therapy. Glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) is a major target of this immune response. Studies in animal models of autoimmunity have shown that treatment with a target antigen can modulate aggressive autoimmunity. We evaluated immunization with GAD formulated in aluminum hydroxide (alum) as an adjuvant in recent onset T1DM.

Methods

In this multicentre, double-masked, randomised controlled trial, 145 subjects (ages 3-45) with T1DM for less than 3 months received 3 injections of 20 μg GAD-alum (48 subjects), 2 injections of GAD-alum and one of alum alone (49 subjects) or 3 injections of alum (48 subjects) subcutaneously at baseline, 4 weeks later and 8 weeks after the second injection. Primary outcome was baseline-adjusted geometric mean 2-hour area under the curve (AUC) serum C-peptide following a mixed meal tolerance test at one year. Secondary outcomes included changes in HbA1c and insulin dose, and safety. This trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00529399).

Findings

The ratio (experimental to control) of the adjusted population mean of C-peptide for the GAD-alum ×3 and GAD-alum ×2/alum ×1 groups is 0.998 (95% CI: [0.779, 1.22], p = 0.98) and 0.926 (95% CI: [0.720, 1.13], p = 0.50), respectively. HbA1c and insulin use did not differ between groups. There was no difference in rate or severity of adverse events between groups.

Interpretation

Antigen-based immunotherapy therapy using GAD-alum given subcutaneously in two or three doses over 4 to 12 weeks does not alter the course of loss of insulin secretion over one year in subjects with recently diagnosed T1DM. While antigen-based therapy is a highly desireable treatment and is effective in animal models, translation to human autoimmune disease remains a challenge.

Funding

National Institutes of Health.

Summary

Osteoporosis is a common disease characterised by a systemic impairment of bone mass and microarchitecture that results in fragility fractures. With an ageing population, the medical and socioeconomic impact of osteoporosis in general and postmenopausal osteoporosis in particular, will increase further. A detailed knowledge of bone biology with molecular insights into the communication between bone-forming osteoblasts and bone-resorbing osteoclasts and the orchestrating signalling network has led to the identification of novel therapeutic targets. Based on this, therapeutic strategies have been developed aimed at (I) inhibiting excessive bone resorption and by (II) increasing bone formation. The most promising novel treatments include denosumab, a monoclonal antibody against receptor activator of NF-κB ligand, a key osteoclast cytokine, odanacatib, a specific inhibitor of the osteoclast protease cathepsin K, and antibodies against the proteins sclerostin and dickkopf-1, two endogenous inhibitors of bone formation. This review provides an overview on these novel therapies and explains their underlying physiology.

Summary

Background

Women born around 1940 in countries such as the UK and USA were the first generation in which many smoked substantial numbers of cigarettes throughout adult life. Hence, only in the 21st century can we observe directly the full effects of prolonged smoking, and of prolonged cessation, on mortality among women in the UK.

Methods

For this prospective study, 1·3 million UK women were recruited in 1996–2001 and resurveyed postally about 3 and 8 years later. All were followed to Jan 1, 2011, through national mortality records (mean 12 woman-years, SD 2). Participants were asked at entry whether they were current or ex-smokers, and how many cigarettes they currently smoked. Those who were ex-smokers at both entry and the 3-year resurvey and had stopped before the age of 55 years were categorised by the age they had stopped smoking. We used Cox regression models to obtain adjusted relative risks that compared categories of smokers or ex-smokers with otherwise similar never-smokers.

Findings

After excluding 0·1 million women with previous disease, 1·2 million women remained, with median birth year 1943 (IQR 1938–46) and age 55 years (IQR 52–60). Overall, 6% (66 489/1 180 652) died, at mean age 65 years (SD 6). At baseline, 20% (232 461) were current smokers, 28% (328 417) were ex-smokers, and 52% (619 774) were never-smokers. For 12-year mortality, those smoking at baseline had a mortality rate ratio of 2·76 (95% CI 2·71–2·81) compared with never-smokers, even though 44% (37 240/85 256) of the baseline smokers who responded to the 8-year resurvey had by then stopped smoking. Mortality was tripled, largely irrespective of age, in those still smoking at the 3-year resurvey (rate ratio 2·97, 2·88–3·07). Even for women smoking fewer than ten cigarettes per day at baseline, 12-year mortality was doubled (rate ratio 1·98, 1·91–2·04). Of the 30 most common causes of death, 23 were increased significantly in smokers; for lung cancer, the rate ratio was 21·4 (19·7–23·2). The excess mortality among smokers (in comparison with never-smokers) was mainly from diseases that, like lung cancer, can be caused by smoking. Among ex-smokers who had stopped permanently at ages 25–34 years or at ages 35–44 years, the respective relative risks were 1·05 (95% CI 1·00–1·11) and 1·20 (1·14–1·26) for all-cause mortality and 1·84 (1·45–2·34) and 3·34 (2·76–4·03) for lung cancer mortality. Thus, although some excess mortality remains among these long-term ex-smokers, it is only 3% and 10% of the excess mortality among continuing smokers. If combined with 2010 UK national death rates, tripled mortality rates among smokers indicate 53% of smokers and 22% of never-smokers dying before age 80 years, and an 11-year lifespan difference.

Interpretation

Among UK women, two-thirds of all deaths of smokers in their 50s, 60s, and 70s are caused by smoking; smokers lose at least 10 years of lifespan. Although the hazards of smoking until age 40 years and then stopping are substantial, the hazards of continuing are ten times greater. Stopping before age 40 years (and preferably well before age 40 years) avoids more than 90% of the excess mortality caused by continuing smoking; stopping before age 30 years avoids more than 97% of it.

Funding

Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council.

Summary

Background

Reliable estimates of populations affected by diseases are necessary to guide efficient allocation of public health resources. Sickle haemoglobin (HbS) is the most common and clinically significant haemoglobin structural variant, but no contemporary estimates exist of the global populations affected. Moreover, the precision of available national estimates of heterozygous (AS) and homozygous (SS) neonates is unknown. We aimed to provide evidence-based estimates at various scales, with uncertainty measures.

Methods

Using a database of sickle haemoglobin surveys, we created a contemporary global map of HbS allele frequency distribution within a Bayesian geostatistical model. The pairing of this map with demographic data enabled calculation of global, regional, and national estimates of the annual number of AS and SS neonates. Subnational estimates were also calculated in data-rich areas.

Findings

Our map shows subnational spatial heterogeneities and high allele frequencies across most of sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and India, as well as gene flow following migrations to western Europe and the eastern coast of the Americas. Accounting for local heterogeneities and demographic factors, we estimated that the global number of neonates affected by HbS in 2010 included 5 476 000 (IQR 5 291 000–5 679 000) AS neonates and 312 000 (294 000–330 000) SS neonates. These global estimates are higher than previous conservative estimates. Important differences predicted at the national level are discussed.

Interpretation

HbS will have an increasing effect on public health systems. Our estimates can help countries and the international community gauge the need for appropriate diagnoses and genetic counselling to reduce the number of neonates affected. Similar mapping and modelling methods could be used for other inherited disorders.

Funding

The Wellcome Trust.

Summary

Background

Nevirapine given once-daily for the first 6, 14, or 28 weeks of life to infants exposed to HIV-1via breastfeeding reduces transmission through this route compared with single-dose nevirapine at birth or neonatally. We aimed to assess incremental safety and efficacy of extension of such prophylaxis to 6 months.

Methods

In our phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled HPTN 046 trial, we assessed the incremental benefit of extension of once-daily infant nevirapine from age 6 weeks to 6 months. We enrolled breastfeeding infants born to mothers with HIV-1 in four African countries within 7 days of birth. Following receipt of nevirapine from birth to 6 weeks, infants without HIV infection were randomly allocated (by use of a computer-generated permuted block algorithm with random block sizes and stratified by site and maternal antiretroviral treatment status) to receive extended nevirapine prophylaxis or placebo until 6 months or until breastfeeding cessation, whichever came first. The primaryefficacy endpoint was HIV-1 infection in infants at 6 months and safety endpoints were adverse reactions in both groups. We used Kaplan-Meier analyses to compare differences in the primary outcome between groups. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00074412.

Findings

Between June 19, 2008, and March 12, 2010, we randomly allocated 1527 infants (762 nevirapine and 765 placebo); five of whom had HIV-1 infection at randomisation and were excluded from the primary analyses. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, 1.1% (95% CI 0.3–1.8) of infants who received extended nevirapine developed HIV-1 between 6 weeks and 6 months compared with 2.4% (1.3–3.6) of controls (difference 1.3%, 95% CI 0–2.6), equating to a 54% reduction in transmission (p=0.049). However, mortality (1.2% for nevirapine vs 1.1% for placebo; p=0.81) and combined HIV infection and mortality rates (2.3% vs 3.2%; p=0.27) did not differ between groups at 6 months. 125 (16%) of 758 infants given extended nevirapine and 116 (15%) of 761 controls had serious adverse events, but frequency of adverse events, serious adverse events, and deaths did not differ significantly between treatment groups.

Interpretation

Nevirapine prophylaxis can safely be used to provide protection from mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 via breastfeeding for infants up to 6 months of age.

Funding

US National Institutes of Health.

Summary

Background

Falls in elderly people are a major health burden, especially in the long-term care environment. Yet little objective evidence is available for how and why falls occur in this population. We aimed to provide such evidence by analysing real-life falls in long-term care captured on video.

Methods

We did this observational study between April 20, 2007, and June 23, 2010, in two long-term care facilities in British Columbia, Canada. Digital video cameras were installed in common areas (dining rooms, lounges, hallways). When a fall occurred, facility staff completed an incident report and contacted our teams so that we could collect video footage. A team reviewed each fall video with a validated questionnaire that probed the cause of imbalance and activity at the time of falling. We then tested whether differences existed in the proportion of participants falling due to the various causes, and while engaging in various activities, with generalised linear models, repeated measures logistic regression, and log-linear Poisson regression.

Findings

We captured 227 falls from 130 individuals (mean age 78 years, SD 10). The most frequent cause of falling was incorrect weight shifting, which accounted for 41% (93 of 227) of falls, followed by trip or stumble (48, 21%), hit or bump (25, 11%), loss of support (25, 11%), and collapse (24, 11%). Slipping accounted for only 3% (six) of falls. The three activities associated with the highest proportion of falls were forward walking (54 of 227 falls, 24%), standing quietly (29 falls, 13%), and sitting down (28 falls, 12%). Compared with previous reports from the long-term care setting, we identified a higher occurrence of falls during standing and transferring, a lower occurrence during walking, and a larger proportion due to centre-of-mass perturbations than base-of-support perturbations.

Interpretation

By providing insight into the sequences of events that most commonly lead to falls, our results should lead to more valid and effective approaches for balance assessment and fall prevention in long-term care.

Background

We aimed to identify novel genetic variants affecting asthma risk, since these might provide novel insights into molecular mechanisms underlying asthma.

Methods

We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2,669 physician-diagnosed asthmatics and 4,528 controls from Australia. Seven loci were prioritised for replication after combining our results with those from the GABRIEL consortium (n=26,475), and these were tested in an additional 25,358 independent samples from four in-silico cohorts. Quantitative multi-SNP scores of genetic load were constructed on the basis of results from the GABRIEL study and tested for association with asthma in our Australian GWAS dataset.

Findings

Two loci were confirmed to associate with asthma risk in the replication cohorts and reached genome-wide significance in the combined analysis of all available studies (n=57,800): rs4129267 (OR=1.09, combined P=2.4×10−8) in the interleukin-6 receptor gene (IL6R) and rs7130588 (OR=1.09, P=1.8×10−8) on chromosome 11q13.5 near the leucine-rich repeat containing 32 gene (LRRC32, also known as GARP). The 11q13.5 locus was significantly associated with atopic status among asthmatics (OR = 1.33, P = 7×10−4), suggesting that it is a risk factor for allergic but not non-allergic asthma. Multi-SNP association results are consistent with a highly polygenic contribution to asthma risk, including loci with weak effects that may be shared with other immune-related diseases, such as NDFIP1, HLA-B, LPP and BACH2.

Interpretation

The IL6R association further supports the hypothesis that cytokine signalling dysregulation affects asthma risk, and raises the possibility that an IL6R antagonist (tocilizumab) may be effective to treat the disease, perhaps in a genotype-dependent manner. Results for the 11q13.5 locus suggest that it directly increases the risk of allergic sensitisation which, in turn, increases the risk of subsequent development of asthma. Larger or more functionally focused studies are needed to characterise the many loci with modest effects that remain to be identified for asthma.

Funding

A full list of funding sources appears at the end of the paper.

Vaccination with the protein-polysaccharide conjugate vaccine, PCV7, has significantly reduced the burden of pneumococcal disease in populations where it is in widespread use and has had an important public health benefit. This vaccine targets only 7 of the more than 92 pneumococcal serotypes, and there have been concerns that the non-vaccine serotypes (NVTs) could increase in prevalence and reduce the benefits of vaccination. Indeed, among asymptomatic carriers, the prevalence of NVTs has increased substantially, and as a result, there has been little or no net change in the carriage prevalence of the bacteria. In many populations, there has been an increase in pneumococcal disease caused by NVT, but in most cases this increase in NVT disease has been less than the increase in NVT carriage. In this article, we review the evidence for serotype replacement in carriage and disease and address the surveillance biases that might affect these findings. We then discuss possible reasons for the discrepancy between near-complete replacement in carriage and partial replacement for disease, and address the possibility that differences in invasiveness between vaccine serotypes and those causing replacement could contribute to this difference. We contend that the magnitude of serotype replacement in disease can be attributed, in part, to a combination of lower invasiveness of the replacing serotypes, biases in the pre-vaccine carriage data (unmasking), and biases in the disease surveillance systems that could underestimate the true amount of replacement. We conclude by discussing the potential for serotype replacement in disease in the future and the need for ongoing surveillance.

Summary

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is endemic in hospitals worldwide and a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. Healthcare-associated MRSA infections occur in individuals with predisposing risk factors for disease, such as surgery or presence of an indwelling medical device. By contrast, community-associated MRSA (CA-MRSA) infections often occur in otherwise healthy individuals who lack such risk factors. In addition, CA-MRSA infections are epidemic in some countries. These observations suggest that CA-MRSA strains are more virulent and transmissible than traditional hospital-associated MRSA strains. Relatively limited treatment options for CA-MRSA infections compound the problem of enhanced virulence and transmission. Although progress has been made toward understanding emergence of CA-MRSA, virulence, and treatment of infections, our knowledge in these areas remains incomplete. Here were review the most current knowledge in these areas and provide perspective on future outlook for prophylaxis and/or new therapies for CA-MRSA infections.

Unipolar depressive disorder in adolescence is common worldwide but often unrecognised. The incidence, notably in girls, rises sharply after puberty and, by the end of adolescence, the 1 year prevalence rate exceeds 4%. The burden is highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Depression is associated with sub stantial present and future morbidity, and heightens suicide risk. The strongest risk factors for depression in adolescents are a family history of depression and exposure to psychosocial stress. Inherited risks, developmental factors, sex hormones, and psychosocial adversity interact to increase risk through hormonal factors and associated perturbed neural pathways. Although many similarities between depression in adolescence and depression in adulthood exist, in adolescents the use of antidepressants is of concern and opinions about clinical management are divided. Effective treatments are available, but choices are dependent on depression severity and available resources. Prevention strategies targeted at high-risk groups are promising.

Children who are referred to specialist care with asthma that does not respond to treatment (problematic severe asthma) are a heterogeneous group, with substantial morbidity. The evidence base for management is sparse, and is mostly based on data from studies in children with mild and moderate asthma and on extrapolation of data from studies in adults with severe asthma. In many children with severe asthma, the diagnosis is wrong or adherence to treatment is poor. The first step is a detailed diagnostic assessment to exclude an alternative diagnosis (“not asthma at all”), followed by a multidisciplinary approach to exclude comorbidities (“asthma plus”) and to assess whether the child has difficult asthma (improves when the basic management needs, such as adherence and inhaler technique, are corrected) or true, therapy-resistant asthma (still symptomatic even when the basic management needs are resolved). In particular, environmental causes of secondary steroid resistance should be identified. An individualised treatment plan should be devised depending on the clinical and pathophysiological characterisation. Licensed therapeutic approaches include high-dose inhaled steroids, the Symbicort maintenance and reliever (SMART) regimen (with budesonide and formoterol fumarate), and anti-IgE therapy. Unlicensed treatments include methotrexate, azathioprine, ciclosporin, and subcutaneous terbutaline infusions. Paediatric data are needed on cytokine-specific monoclonal antibody therapies and bronchial thermoplasty. However, despite the interest in innovative approaches, getting the basics right in children with apparently severe asthma will remain the foundation of management for the foreseeable future.

Background

The immunopathogenesis of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) is associated with T-lymphocyte autoimmunity. To be fully active, immune T-lymphocytes require a co-stimulatory signal in addition to the main antigen driven signal. Abatacept modulates co-stimulation andprevents full T-lymphocyte activation. We evaluated the effect of abatacept in recent-onset T1DM.

Methods

In this multicentre, double-masked, randomised controlled trial, 112 subjects (ages 6–36) recently diagnosed with T1DM; 77 received abatacept (10 mg/kg, maximum 1000 mg/dose) and 35 received placebo infusions intravenously on days 1, 14, 28, and monthly for a total of 27 infusions over two years. Primary outcome was baseline-adjusted geometric mean 2-hour area under the curve (AUC) serum C-peptide following a mixed meal tolerance test at two years. Secondary outcomes include difference between groups in incidence of loss of peak C-peptide to < 0·2 pmol/ml, slope of C-peptide over time, changes in HbA1c and insulin dose, and safety. This trial is registered in ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00505375).

Findings

Adjusted C-peptide AUC was 59% (95% CI: 6·1%, 112%) higher at two years with abatacept (0·378 pmol/ml) versus placebo (0·238 pmol/ml) (p=0·0029). The difference between groups was present throughout the trial, with an estimated 9·6 months’ delay in decline with abatacept. There was lower HbA1c (p<0·002) but similar insulin use. There were few, clinically not significant infusion related adverse events and minimal overall adverse events. There was no increase in infections or neutropenia.

Interpretation

Co-stimulation modulation with abatacept slowed decline of beta cell function over two years. The beneficial effect suggests that T-lymphocyte activation still occurs around the time of clinical diagnosis of T1DM. Yet, despite continued administration of abatacept over 24 months, the decline in beta cell function with abatacept was parallel to that with placebo after six months of treatment, causing us to speculate that T-lymphocyte activation may lessen with time. Further observation will determine whether the beneficial effect continues after cessation of abatacept infusions.

Funding

National Institutes of Health.

Summary

Background

Published work assessing psychosocial stress (job strain) as a risk factor for coronary heart disease is inconsistent and subject to publication bias and reverse causation bias. We analysed the relation between job strain and coronary heart disease with a meta-analysis of published and unpublished studies.

Methods

We used individual records from 13 European cohort studies (1985–2006) of men and women without coronary heart disease who were employed at time of baseline assessment. We measured job strain with questions from validated job-content and demand-control questionnaires. We extracted data in two stages such that acquisition and harmonisation of job strain measure and covariables occurred before linkage to records for coronary heart disease. We defined incident coronary heart disease as the first non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death.

Findings

30 214 (15%) of 197 473 participants reported job strain. In 1·49 million person-years at risk (mean follow-up 7·5 years [SD 1·7]), we recorded 2358 events of incident coronary heart disease. After adjustment for sex and age, the hazard ratio for job strain versus no job strain was 1·23 (95% CI 1·10–1·37). This effect estimate was higher in published (1·43, 1·15–1·77) than unpublished (1·16, 1·02–1·32) studies. Hazard ratios were likewise raised in analyses addressing reverse causality by exclusion of events of coronary heart disease that occurred in the first 3 years (1·31, 1·15–1·48) and 5 years (1·30, 1·13–1·50) of follow-up. We noted an association between job strain and coronary heart disease for sex, age groups, socioeconomic strata, and region, and after adjustments for socioeconomic status, and lifestyle and conventional risk factors. The population attributable risk for job strain was 3·4%.

Interpretation

Our findings suggest that prevention of workplace stress might decrease disease incidence; however, this strategy would have a much smaller effect than would tackling of standard risk factors, such as smoking.

Funding

Finnish Work Environment Fund, the Academy of Finland, the Swedish Research Council for Working Life and Social Research, the German Social Accident Insurance, the Danish National Research Centre for the Working Environment, the BUPA Foundation, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, the Medical Research Council, the Wellcome Trust, and the US National Institutes of Health.

Summary

Background

Clinical outcomes after major surgery are poorly described at the national level. Evidence of heterogeneity between hospitals and health-care systems suggests potential to improve care for patients but this potential remains unconfirmed. The European Surgical Outcomes Study was an international study designed to assess outcomes after non-cardiac surgery in Europe.

Methods

We did this 7 day cohort study between April 4 and April 11, 2011. We collected data describing consecutive patients aged 16 years and older undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery in 498 hospitals across 28 European nations. Patients were followed up for a maximum of 60 days. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcome measures were duration of hospital stay and admission to critical care. We used χ2 and Fisher's exact tests to compare categorical variables and the t test or the Mann-Whitney U test to compare continuous variables. Significance was set at p<0·05. We constructed multilevel logistic regression models to adjust for the differences in mortality rates between countries.

Findings

We included 46 539 patients, of whom 1855 (4%) died before hospital discharge. 3599 (8%) patients were admitted to critical care after surgery with a median length of stay of 1·2 days (IQR 0·9–3·6). 1358 (73%) patients who died were not admitted to critical care at any stage after surgery. Crude mortality rates varied widely between countries (from 1·2% [95% CI 0·0–3·0] for Iceland to 21·5% [16·9–26·2] for Latvia). After adjustment for confounding variables, important differences remained between countries when compared with the UK, the country with the largest dataset (OR range from 0·44 [95% CI 0·19–1·05; p=0·06] for Finland to 6·92 [2·37–20·27; p=0·0004] for Poland).

Interpretation

The mortality rate for patients undergoing inpatient non-cardiac surgery was higher than anticipated. Variations in mortality between countries suggest the need for national and international strategies to improve care for this group of patients.

Funding

European Society of Intensive Care Medicine, European Society of Anaesthesiology.

Summary

Background

Robust evidence of the effectiveness of task shifting of antiretroviral therapy (ART) from doctors to other health workers is scarce. We aimed to assess the effects on mortality, viral suppression, and other health outcomes and quality indicators of the Streamlining Tasks and Roles to Expand Treatment and Care for HIV (STRETCH) programme, which provides educational outreach training of nurses to initiate and represcribe ART, and to decentralise care.

Methods

We undertook a pragmatic, parallel, cluster-randomised trial in South Africa between Jan 28, 2008, and June 30, 2010. We randomly assigned 31 primary-care ART clinics to implement the STRETCH programme (intervention group) or to continue with standard care (control group). The ratio of randomisation depended on how many clinics were in each of nine strata. Two cohorts were enrolled: eligible patients in cohort 1 were adults (aged ≥16 years) with CD4 counts of 350 cells per μL or less who were not receiving ART; those in cohort 2 were adults who had already received ART for at least 6 months and were being treated at enrolment. The primary outcome in cohort 1 was time to death (superiority analysis). The primary outcome in cohort 2 was the proportion with undetectable viral loads (<400 copies per mL) 12 months after enrolment (equivalence analysis, prespecified difference <6%). Patients and clinicians could not be masked to group assignment. The interim analysis was blind, but data analysts were not masked after the database was locked for final analysis. Analyses were done by intention to treat. This trial is registered, number ISRCTN46836853.

Findings

5390 patients in cohort 1 and 3029 in cohort 2 were in the intervention group, and 3862 in cohort 1 and 3202 in cohort 2 were in the control group. Median follow-up was 16·3 months (IQR 12·2–18·0) in cohort 1 and 18·0 months (18·0–18·0) in cohort 2. In cohort 1, 997 (20%) of 4943 patients analysed in the intervention group and 747 (19%) of 3862 in the control group with known vital status at the end of the trial had died. Time to death did not differ (hazard ratio [HR] 0·94, 95% CI 0·76–1·15). In a preplanned subgroup analysis of patients with baseline CD4 counts of 201–350 cells per μL, mortality was slightly lower in the intervention group than in the control group (0·73, 0·54–1.00; p=0·052), but it did not differ between groups in patients with baseline CD4 of 200 cells per μL or less (0·94, 0·76–1·15; p=0·577). In cohort 2, viral load suppression 12 months after enrolment was equivalent in intervention (2156 [71%] of 3029 patients) and control groups (2230 [70%] of 3202; risk difference 1·1%, 95% CI −2·4 to 4·6).

Interpretation

Expansion of primary-care nurses' roles to include ART initiation and represcription can be done safely, and improve health outcomes and quality of care, but might not reduce time to ART or mortality.

Funding

UK Medical Research Council, Development Cooperation Ireland, and Canadian International Development Agency.

Summary

Background

Osteoarthritis is the most common form of arthritis worldwide and is a major cause of pain and disability in elderly people. The health economic burden of osteoarthritis is increasing commensurate with obesity prevalence and longevity. Osteoarthritis has a strong genetic component but the success of previous genetic studies has been restricted due to insufficient sample sizes and phenotype heterogeneity.

Methods

We undertook a large genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 7410 unrelated and retrospectively and prospectively selected patients with severe osteoarthritis in the arcOGEN study, 80% of whom had undergone total joint replacement, and 11 009 unrelated controls from the UK. We replicated the most promising signals in an independent set of up to 7473 cases and 42 938 controls, from studies in Iceland, Estonia, the Netherlands, and the UK. All patients and controls were of European descent.

Findings

We identified five genome-wide significant loci (binomial test p≤5·0×10−8) for association with osteoarthritis and three loci just below this threshold. The strongest association was on chromosome 3 with rs6976 (odds ratio 1·12 [95% CI 1·08–1·16]; p=7·24×10−11), which is in perfect linkage disequilibrium with rs11177. This SNP encodes a missense polymorphism within the nucleostemin-encoding gene GNL3. Levels of nucleostemin were raised in chondrocytes from patients with osteoarthritis in functional studies. Other significant loci were on chromosome 9 close to ASTN2, chromosome 6 between FILIP1 and SENP6, chromosome 12 close to KLHDC5 and PTHLH, and in another region of chromosome 12 close to CHST11. One of the signals close to genome-wide significance was within the FTO gene, which is involved in regulation of bodyweight—a strong risk factor for osteoarthritis. All risk variants were common in frequency and exerted small effects.

Interpretation

Our findings provide insight into the genetics of arthritis and identify new pathways that might be amenable to future therapeutic intervention.

Funding

arcOGEN was funded by a special purpose grant from Arthritis Research UK.

Summary

Background

There is little information on country trends in the complete distributions of children's anthropometric status, which are needed to assess all levels of mild to severe undernutrition. We aimed to estimate trends in the distributions of children's anthropometric status and assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 1 (MDG 1) target of halving the prevalence of weight-for-age Z score (WAZ) below −2 between 1990 and 2015 or reaching a prevalence of 2·3% or lower.

Methods

We collated population-representative data on height-for-age Z score (HAZ) and WAZ calculated with the 2006 WHO child growth standards. Our data sources were health and nutrition surveys, summary statistics from the WHO Global Database on Child Growth and Malnutrition, and summary statistics from reports of other national and international agencies. We used a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to estimate Z-score distributions. We quantified the uncertainty of our estimates, assessed their validity, compared their performance to alternative models, and assessed sensitivity to key modelling choices.

Findings

In developing countries, mean HAZ improved from −1·86 (95% uncertainty interval −2·01 to −1·72) in 1985 to −1·16 (–1·29 to −1·04) in 2011; mean WAZ improved from −1·31 (–1·41 to −1·20) to −0·84 (–0·93 to −0·74). Over this period, prevalences of moderate-and-severe stunting declined from 47·2% (44·0 to 50·3) to 29·9% (27·1 to 32·9) and underweight from 30·1% (26·7 to 33·3) to 19·4% (16·5 to 22·2). The largest absolute improvements were in Asia and the largest relative reductions in prevalence in southern and tropical Latin America. Anthropometric status worsened in sub-Saharan Africa until the late 1990s and improved thereafter. In 2011, 314 (296 to 331) million children younger than 5 years were mildly, moderately, or severely stunted and 258 (240 to 274) million were mildly, moderately, or severely underweight. Developing countries as a whole have less than a 5% chance of meeting the MDG 1 target; but 61 of these 141 countries have a 50–100% chance.

Interpretation

Macroeconomic shocks, structural adjustment, and trade policy reforms in the 1980s and 1990s might have been responsible for worsening child nutritional status in sub-Saharan Africa. Further progress in the improvement of children's growth and nutrition needs equitable economic growth and investment in pro-poor food and primary care programmes, especially relevant in the context of the global economic crisis.

Funding

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Medical Research Council.