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1.  A Central Role for GRB10 in Regulation of Islet Function in Man 
PLoS Genetics  2014;10(4):e1004235.
Variants in the growth factor receptor-bound protein 10 (GRB10) gene were in a GWAS meta-analysis associated with reduced glucose-stimulated insulin secretion and increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) if inherited from the father, but inexplicably reduced fasting glucose when inherited from the mother. GRB10 is a negative regulator of insulin signaling and imprinted in a parent-of-origin fashion in different tissues. GRB10 knock-down in human pancreatic islets showed reduced insulin and glucagon secretion, which together with changes in insulin sensitivity may explain the paradoxical reduction of glucose despite a decrease in insulin secretion. Together, these findings suggest that tissue-specific methylation and possibly imprinting of GRB10 can influence glucose metabolism and contribute to T2D pathogenesis. The data also emphasize the need in genetic studies to consider whether risk alleles are inherited from the mother or the father.
Author Summary
In this paper, we report the first large genome-wide association study in man for glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) indices during an oral glucose tolerance test. We identify seven genetic loci and provide effects on GSIS for all previously reported glycemic traits and obesity genetic loci in a large-scale sample. We observe paradoxical effects of genetic variants in the growth factor receptor-bound protein 10 (GRB10) gene yielding both reduced GSIS and reduced fasting plasma glucose concentrations, specifically showing a parent-of-origin effect of GRB10 on lower fasting plasma glucose and enhanced insulin sensitivity for maternal and elevated glucose and decreased insulin sensitivity for paternal transmissions of the risk allele. We also observe tissue-specific differences in DNA methylation and allelic imbalance in expression of GRB10 in human pancreatic islets. We further disrupt GRB10 by shRNA in human islets, showing reduction of both insulin and glucagon expression and secretion. In conclusion, we provide evidence for complex regulation of GRB10 in human islets. Our data suggest that tissue-specific methylation and imprinting of GRB10 can influence glucose metabolism and contribute to T2D pathogenesis. The data also emphasize the need in genetic studies to consider whether risk alleles are inherited from the mother or the father.
PMCID: PMC3974640  PMID: 24699409
2.  Age at Menopause, Reproductive Life Span, and Type 2 Diabetes Risk 
Diabetes Care  2013;36(4):1012-1019.
Age at menopause is an important determinant of future health outcomes, but little is known about its relationship with type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of menopausal age and reproductive life span (menopausal age minus menarcheal age) with diabetes risk.
Data were obtained from the InterAct study, a prospective case-cohort study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. A total of 3,691 postmenopausal type 2 diabetic case subjects and 4,408 subcohort members were included in the analysis, with a median follow-up of 11 years. Prentice weighted Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age, known risk factors for diabetes, and reproductive factors, and effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, and smoking was studied.
Mean (SD) age of the subcohort was 59.2 (5.8) years. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios (HRs) of type 2 diabetes were 1.32 (95% CI 1.04–1.69), 1.09 (0.90–1.31), 0.97 (0.86–1.10), and 0.85 (0.70–1.03) for women with menopause at ages <40, 40–44, 45–49, and ≥55 years, respectively, relative to those with menopause at age 50–54 years. The HR per SD younger age at menopause was 1.08 (1.02–1.14). Similarly, a shorter reproductive life span was associated with a higher diabetes risk (HR per SD lower reproductive life span 1.06 [1.01–1.12]). No effect modification by BMI, waist circumference, or smoking was observed (P interaction all > 0.05).
Early menopause is associated with a greater risk of type 2 diabetes.
PMCID: PMC3609516  PMID: 23230098
3.  Hemodynamic Aging as the Consequence of Structural Changes Associated with Early Vascular Aging (EVA) 
Aging and Disease  2014;5(2):109-113.
An increase in peripheral vascular resistance at rest is not routinely observed in healthy older persons, but often associated with increased stiffness of central elastic arteries, as hallmarks of aging effects on the vasculature, referred to as early vascular aging (EVA). In clinical practice, the increased arterial stiffness translates into increased brachial and central systolic blood pressure and corresponding pulse pressure in subjects above 50 years of age, as well as increased carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (c-f PWV), a marker of arterial stiffness. A c-f PWV value ≥ 10 m/s is currently defined as a threshold for increased cardiovascular risk, based on consensus statement from 2012. Prevention and treatment strategies include a healthy lifestyle and the control of risk factors via appropriate drug therapy to achieve vascular protection related to EVA. New drugs are under development for vascular protection, for example the selective Angiotensin II (AT2) receptor agonist called compound 21. One target group for early intervention could be members of risk families including subjects with early onset cardiovascular disease.
PMCID: PMC3966669
aging; arterial stiffness; cardiac; blood pressure; haemodynamic; vasculature
4.  KDOQI US Commentary on the 2012 KDIGO Clinical Practice Guideline for Management of Blood Pressure in CKD 
In response to the 2012 KDIGO (Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes) guideline for blood pressure management in patients with chronic kidney disease not on dialysis, the National Kidney Foundation organized a group of US experts in hypertension and transplant nephrology to review the recommendations and comment on their relevancy in the context of current US clinical practice and concerns. The overriding message was the dearth of clinical trial evidence to provide strong evidence-based recommendations. For patients with CKD with normal to mildly increased albuminuria, goal blood pressure has been relaxed to ≤140/90 mm Hg for both diabetic and nondiabetic patients. In contrast, KDIGO continues to recommend goal blood pressure ≤130/80 mm Hg for patients with chronic kidney disease with moderately or severely increased albuminuria and for all renal transplant recipients regardless of the presence of proteinuria, without supporting data. The expert panel thought the KDIGO recommendations were generally reasonable but lacking in sufficient evidence support and that additional studies are greatly needed.
PMCID: PMC3929429  PMID: 23684145
Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO); guideline; blood pressure
5.  Atrial Natriuretic Peptide and Type 2 Diabetes Development – Biomarker and Genotype Association Study 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(2):e89201.
We have recently shown that low plasma levels of mid-regional atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-ANP) predict development of diabetes and glucose progression over time, independently of known risk factors for diabetes development. However, since MR-ANP levels might be influenced by unknown factors causing diabetes, we cannot rule out that such relationship might be confounded. Previous studies have shown an association of a single nucleotide polymorphism rs5068 on the natriuretic peptide precursor A (NPPA) locus gene with higher levels of circulating ANP. Since gene variants are inherited randomly and not subject to confounding, we aimed to investigate whether the variant rs5068 within the NPPA locus is associated with incident type 2 diabetes.
We genotyped the variant rs5068 within the NPPA locus in 27,307 individuals without known diabetes from the Malmö Diet Cancer Study. Incident diabetes was retrieved through national and regional registers (median follow-up time of 14 years, 2,823 incident diabetes cases).
In Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, sex and BMI, we found that the carriers of at least one copy of the G allele of rs5068 had lower likelihood of incident diabetes within 14 years (HR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.78–0.99, p = 0.037).
Our results indicate a role of the ANP system in the etiology of type 2 diabetes and might help provide insight in the metabolic actions of natriuretic peptides and the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.
PMCID: PMC3929630  PMID: 24586593
6.  Dietary Intakes of Individual Flavanols and Flavonols Are Inversely Associated with Incident Type 2 Diabetes in European Populations123 
The Journal of Nutrition  2013;144(3):335-343.
Dietary flavanols and flavonols, flavonoid subclasses, have been recently associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Europe. Even within the same subclass, flavonoids may differ considerably in bioavailability and bioactivity. We aimed to examine the association between individual flavanol and flavonol intakes and risk of developing T2D across European countries. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–InterAct case-cohort study was conducted in 8 European countries across 26 study centers with 340,234 participants contributing 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, among whom 12,403 incident T2D cases were ascertained and a center-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals was defined. We estimated flavonoid intake at baseline from validated dietary questionnaires using a database developed from Phenol-Explorer and USDA databases. We used country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and random-effects meta-analysis methods to estimate HRs. Among the flavanol subclass, we observed significant inverse trends between intakes of all individual flavan-3-ol monomers and risk of T2D in multivariable models (all P-trend < 0.05). We also observed significant trends for the intakes of proanthocyanidin dimers (HR for the highest vs. the lowest quintile: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.92; P-trend = 0.003) and trimers (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.80, 1.04; P-trend = 0.07) but not for proanthocyanidins with a greater polymerization degree. Among the flavonol subclass, myricetin (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.93; P-trend = 0.001) was associated with a lower incidence of T2D. This large and heterogeneous European study showed inverse associations between all individual flavan-3-ol monomers, proanthocyanidins with a low polymerization degree, and the flavonol myricetin and incident T2D. These results suggest that individual flavonoids have different roles in the etiology of T2D.
PMCID: PMC3927546  PMID: 24368432
7.  Identification of Candidate Serum Proteins for Classifying Well-Differentiated Small Intestinal Neuroendocrine Tumors 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(11):e81712.
Patients with well-differentiated small intestine neuroendocrine tumors (WD-SI-NETs) are most often diagnosed at a metastatic stage of disease, which reduces possibilities for a curative treatment. Thus new approaches for earlier detection and improved monitoring of the disease are required.
Materials and Methods
Suspension bead arrays targeting 124 unique proteins with antibodies from the Human Protein Atlas were used to profile biotinylated serum samples. Discoveries from a cohort of 77 individuals were followed up in a cohort of 132 individuals both including healthy controls as well as patients with untreated primary WD-SI-NETs, lymph node metastases and liver metastases.
A set of 20 antibodies suggested promising proteins for further verification based on technically verified statistical significance. Proceeding, we assessed the classification performance in an independent cohort of patient serum, achieving, classification accuracy of up to 85% with different subsets of antibodies in respective pairwise group comparisons. The protein profiles of nine targets, namely IGFBP2, IGF1, SHKBP1, ETS1, IL1α, STX2, MAML3, EGR3 and XIAP were verified as significant contributors to tumor classification.
We propose new potential protein biomarker candidates for classifying WD-SI-NETs at different stage of disease. Further evaluation of these proteins in larger sample sets and with alternative approaches is needed in order to further improve our understanding of their functional relation to WD-SI-NETs and their eventual use in diagnostics.
PMCID: PMC3839889  PMID: 24282616
8.  Vascular Contributions to Cognitive Impairment and Dementia 
Background and Purpose
This scientific statement provides an overview of the evidence on vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia. Vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia of later life are common. Definitions of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI), neuropathology, basic science and pathophysiological aspects, role of neuroimaging and vascular and other associated risk factors, and potential opportunities for prevention and treatment are reviewed. This statement serves as an overall guide for practitioners to gain a better understanding of VCI and dementia, prevention, and treatment.
Writing group members were nominated by the writing group co-chairs on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association Stroke Council Scientific Statement Oversight Committee, the Council on Epidemiology and Prevention, and the Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writing group used systematic literature reviews (primarily covering publications from 1990 to May 1, 2010), previously published guidelines, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize existing evidence, indicate gaps in current knowledge, and, when appropriate, formulate recommendations using standard American Heart Association criteria. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment on the recommendations and approved the final version of this document. After peer review by the American Heart Association, as well as review by the Stroke Council leadership, Council on Epidemiology and Prevention Council, and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee, the statement was approved by the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee.
The construct of VCI has been introduced to capture the entire spectrum of cognitive disorders associated with all forms of cerebral vascular brain injury—not solely stroke—ranging from mild cognitive impairment through fully developed dementia. Dysfunction of the neurovascular unit and mechanisms regulating cerebral blood flow are likely to be important components of the pathophysiological processes underlying VCI. Cerebral amyloid angiopathy is emerging as an important marker of risk for Alzheimer disease, microinfarction, microhemorrhage and macrohemorrhage of the brain, and VCI. The neuropathology of cognitive impairment in later life is often a mixture of Alzheimer disease and microvascular brain damage, which may overlap and synergize to heighten the risk of cognitive impairment. In this regard, magnetic resonance imaging and other neuroimaging techniques play an important role in the definition and detection of VCI and provide evidence that subcortical forms of VCI with white matter hyperintensities and small deep infarcts are common. In many cases, risk markers for VCI are the same as traditional risk factors for stroke. These risks may include but are not limited to atrial fibrillation, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hypercholesterolemia. Furthermore, these same vascular risk factors may be risk markers for Alzheimer disease. Carotid intimal-medial thickness and arterial stiffness are emerging as markers of arterial aging and may serve as risk markers for VCI. Currently, no specific treatments for VCI have been approved by the US Food and Drug Administration. However, detection and control of the traditional risk factors for stroke and cardiovascular disease may be effective in the prevention of VCI, even in older people.
Vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia are important. Understanding of VCI has evolved substantially in recent years, based on preclinical, neuropathologic, neuroimaging, physiological, and epidemiological studies. Transdisciplinary, translational, and transactional approaches are recommended to further our understanding of this entity and to better characterize its neuropsychological profile. There is a need for prospective, quantitative, clinical-pathological-neuroimaging studies to improve knowledge of the pathological basis of neuroimaging change and the complex interplay between vascular and Alzheimer disease pathologies in the evolution of clinical VCI and Alzheimer disease. Long-term vascular risk marker interventional studies beginning as early as midlife may be required to prevent or postpone the onset of VCI and Alzheimer disease. Studies of intensive reduction of vascular risk factors in high-risk groups are another important avenue of research.
PMCID: PMC3778669  PMID: 21778438
AHA Scientific Statements; vascular dementia; Alzheimer disease; risk factors; prevention; treatment
9.  Plasma copeptin and the risk of diabetes mellitus 
Circulation  2010;121(19):2102-2108.
Animal studies suggest that the arginine vasopressin (AVP) system may play a role in glucose metabolism, but data from humans are limited.
Methods and Results
We analysed plasma copeptin (copeptin), a stable C-terminal fragment of the AVP pro-hormone. Using baseline and longitudinal data from a Swedish population-based sample (n=4742, mean age 58 years, 60% women), we examined the association of increasing quartiles of copeptin (lowest quartile as reference) with prevalent diabetes at baseline, insulin resistance (top quartile of fasting plasma insulin among non-diabetic subjects), and incident diabetes on long-term follow up using multivariable logistic regression. New-onset diabetes was ascertained through 3 national and regional registers. All models were adjusted for clinical and anthropometric risk factors, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein. In cross-sectional analyses, increasing copeptin was associated with prevalent diabetes (P=0.04) and insulin resistance (P<0.001). During 12.6 years of follow up 174 subjects (4%) developed new-onset diabetes. The odds of developing diabetes increased across increasing quartiles of copeptin, even after additional adjustment for baseline fasting glucose and insulin (adjusted odds ratios 1.0, 1.37, 1.79, and 2.09; P for trend =0.004). The association with incident diabetes remained significant in analyses restricted to subjects with fasting whole blood glucose <5.4 mmol/L at baseline (adjusted odds ratios 1.0, 1.80, 1.92, and 3.48; P=0.001).
Elevated copeptin predicts increased risk for diabetes, independent of established clinical risk factors, including fasting glucose and insulin. These findings could have implications for risk assessment, novel anti-diabetic treatments, and metabolic side effects from AVP system modulation.
PMCID: PMC3763235  PMID: 20439785
arginine vasopressin; copeptin; diabetes mellitus; risk factors; epidemiology
10.  A common variant in the melatonin receptor gene (MTNR1B) is associated with increased risk of future type 2 diabetes and impaired early insulin secretion 
Nature genetics  2008;41(1):82-88.
Genome wide association studies revealed that variation in the Melatonin Receptor 1B gene (MTNR1B) is associated with insulin and glucose concentrations. Here we show that the risk genotype of this SNP predicts future type 2 diabetes (T2D) in two large prospective studies. Specifically, the risk genotype was associated with impairment of early insulin response to both oral and intravenous glucose and with faster deterioration of insulin secretion over time. We also show that the Melatonin Receptor 1B mRNA is expressed in human islets, and immunocytochemistry confirms that it is primarily localized in β-cells in islets. Non-diabetic individuals carrying the risk allele and patients with T2D showed increased expression of the receptor in islets. Insulin release from clonal β-cells in response to glucose was inhibited in the presence of melatonin. These data suggest that the circulating hormone melatonin, which is predominantly released from the pineal gland in the brain, is involved in the pathogenesis of T2D. Given the increased expression of Melatonin Receptor 1B in individuals at risk of T2D, the pathogenic effects are likely exerted via a direct inhibitory effect on β-cells. In view of these results, blocking the melatonin ligand-receptor system could be a therapeutic avenue in T2D.
PMCID: PMC3725650  PMID: 19060908
11.  A genetic variant of the atrial natriuretic peptide gene is associated with left ventricular hypertrophy in a non-diabetic population – the Malmö preventive project study 
BMC Medical Genetics  2013;14:64.
Epidemiological studies have shown considerable heritability of blood pressure, thus suggesting a role for genetic factors. Previous studies have shown an association of a single nucleotide polymorphism rs5068 in the NPPA locus gene with higher levels of circulating atrial natriuretic peptide as well as with lower intra individual blood pressure, but up to date, no association between rs5068 and cardiac organ damage, i.e. left ventricular hypertrophy, has been accounted for in humans. We sought to explore if rs5068 is associated with left ventricular hypertrophy as measured by echocardiographic examination in a non-diabetic population.
968 non-diabetic individuals from the Malmö Preventive Project (mean age 67 years; 31% women) were genotyped and examined with echocardiography. Logistic regression was used to adjust for covariates.
The minor allele of rs5068 was associated with decreased prevalence of left ventricular hypertrophy (p = 0.021) after adjustment for sex and age. In the multivariate logistic analysis including; age, sex, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive and/or cardioprotective treatment, body mass index and fasting plasma glucose, the association of rs5068 with left ventricular hypertrophy was, as expected, attenuated (p = 0.061).
In a non-diabetic population, the minor allele of rs5068 was associated with lower left ventricular mass. These findings suggest that rs5068, or genetic variants in linkage disequilibrium, might affect susceptibility to left ventricular hypertrophy and support the possible protective role of natriuretic peptides.
PMCID: PMC3704942  PMID: 23799939
12.  Autoantibody Profiling in Multiple Sclerosis Using Arrays of Human Protein Fragments* 
Profiling the autoantibody repertoire with large antigen collections is emerging as a powerful tool for the identification of biomarkers for autoimmune diseases. Here, a systematic and undirected approach was taken to screen for profiles of IgG in human plasma from 90 individuals with multiple sclerosis related diagnoses. Reactivity pattern of 11,520 protein fragments (representing ∼38% of all human protein encoding genes) were generated on planar protein microarrays built within the Human Protein Atlas. For more than 2,000 antigens IgG reactivity was observed, among which 64% were found only in single individuals. We used reactivity distributions among multiple sclerosis subgroups to select 384 antigens, which were then re-evaluated on planar microarrays, corroborated with suspension bead arrays in a larger cohort (n = 376) and confirmed for specificity in inhibition assays. Among the heterogeneous pattern within and across multiple sclerosis subtypes, differences in recognition frequencies were found for 51 antigens, which were enriched for proteins of transcriptional regulation. In conclusion, using protein fragments and complementary high-throughput protein array platforms facilitated an alternative route to discovery and verification of potentially disease-associated autoimmunity signatures, that are now proposed as additional antigens for large-scale validation studies across multiple sclerosis biobanks.
PMCID: PMC3769337  PMID: 23732997
13.  The prospective association between total and type of fish intake and type 2 diabetes in 8 European countries: EPIC-InterAct Study123 
Background: Epidemiologic evidence of an association between fish intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) is inconsistent and unresolved.
Objective: The objective was to examine the association between total and type of fish intake and T2D in 8 European countries.
Design: This was a case-cohort study, nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up, 12,403 incident diabetes cases, and a random subcohort of 16,835 individuals from 8 European countries. Habitual fish intake (lean fish, fatty fish, total fish, shellfish, and combined fish and shellfish) was assessed by country-specific dietary questionnaires. HRs were estimated in each country by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled by using a random-effects meta-analysis.
Results: No overall association was found between combined fish and shellfish intake and incident T2D per quartile (adjusted HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.06; P-trend = 0.99). Total fish, lean fish, and shellfish intakes separately were also not associated with T2D, but fatty fish intake was weakly inversely associated with T2D: adjusted HR per quartile 0.97 (0.94, 1.00), with an HR of 0.84 (0.70, 1.01), 0.85 (0.76, 0.95), and 0.87 (0.78, 0.97) for a comparison of the second, third, and fourth quartiles with the lowest quartile of intake, respectively (P-trend = 0.06).
Conclusions: These findings suggest that lean fish, total fish, and shellfish intakes are not associated with incident diabetes but that fatty fish intake may be weakly inversely associated. Replication of these findings in other populations and investigation of the mechanisms underlying these associations are warranted. Meanwhile, current public health recommendations on fish intake should remain unchanged.
PMCID: PMC3623039  PMID: 22572642
14.  Fruit and vegetable intake and type 2 diabetes: EPIC-InterAct prospective study and meta-analysis 
European journal of clinical nutrition  2012;66(10):1082-1092.
Fruit and vegetable intake (FVI) may reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the epidemiological evidence is inconclusive. The aim of this study is to examine the prospective association of FVI with T2D and conduct an updated meta-analysis.
In the EPIC-InterAct (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer-InterAct) prospective case-cohort study nested within eight European countries, a representative sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of T2D were identified from 340 234 individuals with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. For the meta-analysis we identified prospective studies on FVI and T2D risk by systematic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE until April 2011.
In EPIC-InterAct, estimated FVI by dietary questionnaires varied more than two-fold between countries. In adjusted analyses the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) comparing the highest with lowest quartile of reported intake was 0.90 (0.80-1.01) for FVI; 0.89 (0.76-1.04) for fruit, and 0.94 (0.84-1.05) for vegetables. Among FV sub-types, only root vegetables were inversely associated with diabetes 0.87 (0.77-0.99). In meta-analysis using pooled data from five studies including EPIC-InterAct, comparing the highest with lowest category for FVI was associated with a lower relative risk of diabetes (0.93 (0.87-1.00)). Fruit or vegetables separately were not associated with diabetes. Among FV sub-types, only green leafy vegetable intake (RR: 0.84 (0.74-0.94)) was inversely associated with diabetes.
Sub-types of vegetables, such as root vegetables or green leafy vegetables may be beneficial for the prevention of diabetes, while total FVI may exert a weaker overall effect.
PMCID: PMC3652306  PMID: 22854878
Fruit; vegetables; type 2 diabetes mellitus; epidemiology; meta-analysis; review
15.  Towards Renewed Health Economic Simulation of Type 2 Diabetes: Risk Equations for First and Second Cardiovascular Events from Swedish Register Data 
PLoS ONE  2013;8(5):e62650.
Predicting the risk of future events is an essential part of health economic simulation models. In pursuit of this goal, the current study aims to predict the risk of developing first and second acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, non-acute ischaemic heart disease, and stroke after diagnosis in patients with type 2 diabetes, using data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register.
Material and Methods
Register data on 29,034 patients with type 2 diabetes were analysed over five years of follow up (baseline 2003). To develop and validate the risk equations, the sample was randomly divided into training (75%) and test (25%) subsamples. The Weibull proportional hazard model was used to estimate the coefficients of the risk equations, and these were validated in both the training and the test samples.
In total, 4,547 first and 2,418 second events were observed during the five years of follow up. Experiencing a first event substantially elevated the risk of subsequent events. There were heterogeneities in the effects of covariates within as well as between events; for example, while for females the hazard ratio of having a first acute myocardial infarction was 0.79 (0.70–0.90), the hazard ratio of a second was 1.21 (0.98–1.48). The hazards of second events decreased as the time since first events elapsed. The equations showed adequate calibration and discrimination (C statistics range: 0.70–0.84 in test samples).
The accuracy of health economic simulation models of type 2 diabetes can be improved by ensuring that they account for the heterogeneous effects of covariates on the risk of first and second cardiovascular events. Thus it is important to extend such models by including risk equations for second cardiovascular events.
PMCID: PMC3650043  PMID: 23671618
16.  Meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies confirms a susceptibility locus for knee osteoarthritis on chromosome 7q22 
Evangelou, Evangelos | Valdes, Ana M. | Kerkhof, Hanneke J.M | Styrkarsdottir, Unnur | Zhu, YanYan | Meulenbelt, Ingrid | Lories, Rik J. | Karassa, Fotini B. | Tylzanowski, Przemko | Bos, Steffan D. | Akune, Toru | Arden, Nigel K. | Carr, Andrew | Chapman, Kay | Cupples, L. Adrienne | Dai, Jin | Deloukas, Panos | Doherty, Michael | Doherty, Sally | Engstrom, Gunnar | Gonzalez, Antonio | Halldorsson, Bjarni V. | Hammond, Christina L. | Hart, Deborah J. | Helgadottir, Hafdis | Hofman, Albert | Ikegawa, Shiro | Ingvarsson, Thorvaldur | Jiang, Qing | Jonsson, Helgi | Kaprio, Jaakko | Kawaguchi, Hiroshi | Kisand, Kalle | Kloppenburg, Margreet | Kujala, Urho M. | Lohmander, L. Stefan | Loughlin, John | Luyten, Frank P. | Mabuchi, Akihiko | McCaskie, Andrew | Nakajima, Masahiro | Nilsson, Peter M. | Nishida, Nao | Ollier, William E.R. | Panoutsopoulou, Kalliope | van de Putte, Tom | Ralston, Stuart H. | Rivadeneira, Fernado | Saarela, Janna | Schulte-Merker, Stefan | Slagboom, P. Eline | Sudo, Akihiro | Tamm, Agu | Tamm, Ann | Thorleifsson, Gudmar | Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur | Tsezou, Aspasia | Wallis, Gillian A. | Wilkinson, J. Mark | Yoshimura, Noriko | Zeggini, Eleftheria | Zhai, Guangju | Zhang, Feng | Jonsdottir, Ingileif | Uitterlinden, Andre G. | Felson, David T | van Meurs, Joyce B. | Stefansson, Kari | Ioannidis, John P.A. | Spector, Timothy D.
Annals of the rheumatic diseases  2010;70(2):349-355.
Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most prevalent form of arthritis and accounts for substantial morbidity and disability, particularly in the elderly. It is characterized by changes in joint structure including degeneration of the articular cartilage and its etiology is multifactorial with a strong postulated genetic component. We performed a meta-analysis of four genome-wide association (GWA) studies of 2,371 knee OA cases and 35,909 controls in Caucasian populations. Replication of the top hits was attempted with data from additional ten replication datasets. With a cumulative sample size of 6,709 cases and 44,439 controls, we identified one genome-wide significant locus on chromosome 7q22 for knee OA (rs4730250, p-value=9.2×10−9), thereby confirming its role as a susceptibility locus for OA. The associated signal is located within a large (500kb) linkage disequilibrium (LD) block that contains six genes; PRKAR2B (protein kinase, cAMP-dependent, regulatory, type II, beta), HPB1 (HMG-box transcription factor 1), COG5 (component of oligomeric golgi complex 5), GPR22 (G protein-coupled receptor 22), DUS4L (dihydrouridine synthase 4-like), and BCAP29 (the B-cell receptor-associated protein 29). Gene expression analyses of the (six) genes in primary cells derived from different joint tissues confirmed expression of all the genes in the joint environment.
PMCID: PMC3615180  PMID: 21068099
17.  Predicting Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetes in the Post-UKPDS Era: Longitudinal Analysis of the Swedish National Diabetes Register 
Journal of Diabetes Research  2013;2013:241347.
The aim of the current study was to provide updated time-path equations for risk factors of type-2-diabetes-related cardiovascular complications for application in risk calculators and health economic models. Observational data from the Swedish National Diabetes Register were analysed using Generalized Method of Moments estimation for dynamic panel models (N = 5,043, aged 25–70 years at diagnosis in 2001–2004). Validation was performed using persons diagnosed in 2005 (n = 414). Results were compared with the UKPDS outcome model. The value of the risk factor in the previous year was the main predictor of the current value of the risk factor. People with high (low) values of risk factor in the year of diagnosis experienced a decreasing (increasing) trend over time. BMI was associated with elevations in all risk factors, while older age at diagnosis and being female generally corresponded to lower levels of risk factors. Updated time-path equations predicted risk factors more precisely than UKPDS outcome model equations in a Swedish population. Findings indicate new time paths for cardiovascular risk factors in the post-UKPDS era. The validation analysis confirmed the importance of updating the equations as new data become available; otherwise, the results of health economic analyses may be biased.
PMCID: PMC3647571  PMID: 23671860
18.  Bomb-pulse 14C analysis combined with 13C and 15N measurements in blood serum from residents of Malmö, Sweden 
The 14C content of 60 human blood serum samples from residents of Malmö (Sweden) in 1978, obtained from a biobank, has been measured to estimate the accuracy of 14C bomb-pulse dating. The difference between the date estimated using the Calibomb software and sampling date varied between −3 ± 0.4 and +0.2 ± 0.5 years. The average age deviation of all samples was −1.5 ± 0.7 years, with the delay between production and consumption of foodstuffs being probably the dominating cause. The potential influence of food habits on the 14C date has been evaluated using stable isotope δ13C and δ15N analysis and information about the dietary habits of the investigated individuals. Although the group consisting of lacto-ovo vegetarians and vegans (pooled group) was not completely separated from the omnivores in a stable isotopic trophic level diagram, this analysis proved to add valuable information on probable dietary habits. The age deviation of the sampling date from the respective Calibomb date was found strongly correlated with the δ13C values, probably due to influence from marine diet components. For the omnivore individuals, there were indications of seasonal effects on δ13C and the age deviation. No significant correlation was found between the age deviation and the δ15N values of any dietary group. No influence of sex or year of birth was found on neither the 14C nor the δ13C and δ15N values of the serum samples. The data were also divided into two groups (omnivores and pooled group), based on the level of δ15N in the samples. The consumption of high δ15N-valued fish and birds can be responsible for this clustering.
PMCID: PMC3677238  PMID: 23358598
Serum; Bomb-pulse dating; Stable isotopes
19.  Association of common variants in NPPA and NPPB with circulating natriuretic peptides and blood pressure 
Nature genetics  2009;41(3):348-353.
We examined the association of common variants at the NPPA-NPPB locus with circulating concentrations of the natriuretic peptides, which have blood pressure–lowering properties. We genotyped SNPs at the NPPA-NPPB locus in 14,743 individuals of European ancestry, and identified associations of plasma atrial natriuretic peptide with rs5068 (P = 8 × 10−70), rs198358 (P = 8 × 10−30) and rs632793 (P = 2 × 10−10), and of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide with rs5068 (P = 3 × 10−12), rs198358 (P = 1 × 10−25) and rs632793 (P = 2 × 10−68). In 29,717 individuals, the alleles of rs5068 and rs198358 that showed association with increased circulating natriuretic peptide concentrations were also found to be associated with lower systolic (P = 2 × 10−6 and 6 × 10−5, respectively) and diastolic blood pressure (P = 1 × 10−6 and 5 × 10−5), as well as reduced odds of hypertension (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79–0.92, P = 4 × 10−5; OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.85–0.95, P = 2 × 10−4, respectively). Common genetic variants at the NPPA-NPPB locus found to be associated with circulating natriuretic peptide concentrations contribute to interindividual variation in blood pressure and hypertension.
PMCID: PMC2664511  PMID: 19219041
20.  High-resolution Mapping of Linear Antibody Epitopes Using Ultrahigh-density Peptide Microarrays*  
Molecular & Cellular Proteomics : MCP  2012;11(12):1790-1800.
Antibodies empower numerous important scientific, clinical, diagnostic, and industrial applications. Ideally, the epitope(s) targeted by an antibody should be identified and characterized, thereby establishing antibody reactivity, highlighting possible cross-reactivities, and perhaps even warning against unwanted (e.g. autoimmune) reactivities. Antibodies target proteins as either conformational or linear epitopes. The latter are typically probed with peptides, but the cost of peptide screening programs tends to prohibit comprehensive specificity analysis. To perform high-throughput, high-resolution mapping of linear antibody epitopes, we have used ultrahigh-density peptide microarrays generating several hundred thousand different peptides per array. Using exhaustive length and substitution analysis, we have successfully examined the specificity of a panel of polyclonal antibodies raised against linear epitopes of the human proteome and obtained very detailed descriptions of the involved specificities. The epitopes identified ranged from 4 to 12 amino acids in size. In general, the antibodies were of exquisite specificity, frequently disallowing even single conservative substitutions. In several cases, multiple distinct epitopes could be identified for the same target protein, suggesting an efficient approach to the generation of paired antibodies. Two alternative epitope mapping approaches identified similar, although not necessarily identical, epitopes. These results show that ultrahigh-density peptide microarrays can be used for linear epitope mapping. With an upper theoretical limit of 2,000,000 individual peptides per array, these peptide microarrays may even be used for a systematic validation of antibodies at the proteomic level.
PMCID: PMC3518105  PMID: 22984286
21.  Pleiotropic Effects of GIP on Islet Function Involve Osteopontin 
Diabetes  2011;60(9):2424-2433.
The incretin hormone GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide) promotes pancreatic β-cell function by potentiating insulin secretion and β-cell proliferation. Recently, a combined analysis of several genome-wide association studies (Meta-analysis of Glucose and Insulin-Related Traits Consortium [MAGIC]) showed association to postprandial insulin at the GIP receptor (GIPR) locus. Here we explored mechanisms that could explain the protective effects of GIP on islet function.
Associations of GIPR rs10423928 with metabolic and anthropometric phenotypes in both nondiabetic (N = 53,730) and type 2 diabetic individuals (N = 2,731) were explored by combining data from 11 studies. Insulin secretion was measured both in vivo in nondiabetic subjects and in vitro in islets from cadaver donors. Insulin secretion was also measured in response to exogenous GIP. The in vitro measurements included protein and gene expression as well as measurements of β-cell viability and proliferation.
The A allele of GIPR rs10423928 was associated with impaired glucose- and GIP-stimulated insulin secretion and a decrease in BMI, lean body mass, and waist circumference. The decrease in BMI almost completely neutralized the effect of impaired insulin secretion on risk of type 2 diabetes. Expression of GIPR mRNA was decreased in human islets from carriers of the A allele or patients with type 2 diabetes. GIP stimulated osteopontin (OPN) mRNA and protein expression. OPN expression was lower in carriers of the A allele. Both GIP and OPN prevented cytokine-induced reduction in cell viability (apoptosis). In addition, OPN stimulated cell proliferation in insulin-secreting cells.
These findings support β-cell proliferative and antiapoptotic roles for GIP in addition to its action as an incretin hormone. Identification of a link between GIP and OPN may shed new light on the role of GIP in preservation of functional β-cell mass in humans.
PMCID: PMC3161325  PMID: 21810601
22.  Dietary Fiber, Carbohydrate Quality and Quantity, and Mortality Risk of Individuals with Diabetes Mellitus 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(8):e43127.
Dietary fiber, carbohydrate quality and quantity are associated with mortality risk in the general population. Whether this is also the case among diabetes patients is unknown.
To assess the associations of dietary fiber, glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, and starch intake with mortality risk in individuals with diabetes.
This study was a prospective cohort study among 6,192 individuals with confirmed diabetes mellitus (mean age of 57.4 years, and median diabetes duration of 4.4 years at baseline) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline (1992–2000) with validated dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, while adjusting for CVD-related, diabetes-related, and nutritional factors.
During a median follow-up of 9.2 y, 791 deaths were recorded, 306 due to CVD. Dietary fiber was inversely associated with all-cause mortality risk (adjusted HR per SD increase, 0.83 [95% CI, 0.75–0.91]) and CVD mortality risk (0.76[0.64–0.89]). No significant associations were observed for glycemic load, glycemic index, carbohydrate, sugar, or starch. Glycemic load (1.42[1.07–1.88]), carbohydrate (1.67[1.18–2.37]) and sugar intake (1.53[1.12–2.09]) were associated with an increased total mortality risk among normal weight individuals (BMI≤25 kg/m2; 22% of study population) but not among overweight individuals (P interaction≤0.04). These associations became stronger after exclusion of energy misreporters.
High fiber intake was associated with a decreased mortality risk. High glycemic load, carbohydrate and sugar intake were associated with an increased mortality risk in normal weight individuals with diabetes.
PMCID: PMC3426551  PMID: 22927948
23.  Prediction of significant prostate cancer diagnosed 20 to 30 years later with a single measure of prostate-specific antigen at or before age 50 
Cancer  2010;117(6):1210-1219.
We previously reported that a single prostate-specific antigen (PSA) measured at age 44–50 was highly predictive of subsequent prostate cancer diagnosis in an unscreened population. Here we report an additional seven years of follow-up. This provides a replication on an independent data set, and allows estimates of the association between early PSA and subsequent advanced cancer (clinical stage ≥T3 or metastases at diagnosis).
Blood was collected from 21,277 men in a Swedish city (74% participation rate) during 1974–1986 at age 33–50. Through 2006, prostate cancer was diagnosed in 1408 participants; we measured PSA in archived plasma for 1312 (93%) of these cases and for 3728 controls.
At a median follow-up of 23 years, baseline PSA was strongly associated with subsequent prostate cancer (area-under-the-curve 0.72; 95% CI 0.70, 0.74; for advanced cancer 0.75; 95% CI 0.72, 0.78). Associations between PSA and prostate cancer were virtually identical for the initial and replication data sets with 81% (95% CI 77%, 86%) of advanced cases found in men with PSA above the median (0.63 ng/ml at age 44 – 50).
A single PSA at or before age 50 predicts advanced prostate cancer diagnosed up to 30 years later. Use of early PSA to stratify risk would allow a large group of men to be screened less often but increase frequency of testing on a more limited number of high-risk men. This is likely to improve the ratio of benefits to harms for screening.
PMCID: PMC3412541  PMID: 20960520
prostate cancer; prostate-specific antigen; human kallikrein 2; risk factors; case-control study
24.  HbA1c Measured in Stored Erythrocytes Is Positively Linearly Associated with Mortality in Individuals with Diabetes Mellitus 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(6):e38877.
Observational studies have shown that glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) is related to mortality, but the shape of the association is less clear. Furthermore, disease duration and medication may modify this association. This observational study explored the association between HbA1c measured in stored erythrocytes and mortality. Secondly, it was assessed whether disease duration and medication use influenced the estimates or were independently associated with mortality.
Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition a cohort was analysed of 4,345 individuals with a confirmed diagnosis of diabetes at enrolment. HbA1c was measured in blood samples stored up to 19 years. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models for all-cause mortality investigated HbA1c in quartiles as well as per 1% increment, diabetes medication in seven categories of insulin and oral hypoglycaemic agents, and disease duration in quartiles.
After a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 460 participants died. Higher HbA1c was associated with higher mortality: Hazard Ratio for 1%-increase was 1.11 (95% CI 1.06, 1.17). This association was linear (P-nonlinearity =0.15) and persistent across categories of medication use, disease duration, and co-morbidities. Compared with metformin, other medication types were not associated with mortality. Longer disease duration was associated with mortality, but not after adjustment for HbA1c and medication.
This prospective study showed that persons with lower HbA1c had better survival than those with higher HbA1c. The association was linear and independent of disease duration, type of medication use, and presence of co-morbidities. Any improvement of HbA1c appears to be associated with reduced mortality risk.
PMCID: PMC3374773  PMID: 22719972
25.  Oxidative Heck Reactions using Aryltrifluoroborates and Aryl N-Methyliminodiacetic Acid (MIDA) Boronates 
ChemistryOpen  2012;1(3):140-146.
PMCID: PMC3922452  PMID: 24551502
Heck reactions; N-methyliminodiacetic acid (MIDA); oxidative reactions; palladium complexes; trifluoroborates

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