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1.  Outcome Trajectories in Extremely Preterm Infants 
Pediatrics  2012;130(1):e115-e125.
OBJECTIVE:
Methods are required to predict prognosis with changes in clinical course. Death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature neonates can be predicted at birth/admission to the ICU by considering gender, antenatal steroids, multiple birth, birth weight, and gestational age. Predictions may be improved by using additional information available later during the clinical course. Our objective was to develop serial predictions of outcome by using prognostic factors available over the course of NICU hospitalization.
METHODS:
Data on infants with birth weight ≤1.0 kg admitted to 18 large academic tertiary NICUs during 1998–2005 were used to develop multivariable regression models following stepwise variable selection. Models were developed by using all survivors at specific times during hospitalization (in delivery room [n = 8713], 7-day [n = 6996], 28-day [n = 6241], and 36-week postmenstrual age [n = 5118]) to predict death or death/neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 22 months.
RESULTS:
Prediction of death or neurodevelopmental impairment in extremely premature infants is improved by using information available later during the clinical course. The importance of birth weight declines, whereas the importance of respiratory illness severity increases with advancing postnatal age. The c-statistic in validation models ranged from 0.74 to 0.80 with misclassification rates ranging from 0.28 to 0.30.
CONCLUSIONS:
Dynamic models of the changing probability of individual outcome can improve outcome predictions in preterm infants. Various current and future scenarios can be modeled by input of different clinical possibilities to develop individual “outcome trajectories” and evaluate impact of possible morbidities on outcome.
doi:10.1542/peds.2011-3693
PMCID: PMC3382921  PMID: 22689874
logistic models; premature infant; predictive value of tests; prognosis
2.  Prediction of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia by Postnatal Age in Extremely Premature Infants 
Rationale: Benefits of identifying risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely premature infants include providing prognostic information, identifying infants likely to benefit from preventive strategies, and stratifying infants for clinical trial enrollment.
Objectives: To identify risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and the competing outcome of death, by postnatal day; to identify which risk factors improve prediction; and to develop a Web-based estimator using readily available clinical information to predict risk of bronchopulmonary dysplasia or death.
Methods: We assessed infants of 23–30 weeks' gestation born in 17 centers of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network and enrolled in the Neonatal Research Network Benchmarking Trial from 2000–2004.
Measurements and Main Results: Bronchopulmonary dysplasia was defined as a categorical variable (none, mild, moderate, or severe). We developed and validated models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia risk at six postnatal ages using gestational age, birth weight, race and ethnicity, sex, respiratory support, and FiO2, and examined the models using a C statistic (area under the curve). A total of 3,636 infants were eligible for this study. Prediction improved with advancing postnatal age, increasing from a C statistic of 0.793 on Day 1 to a maximum of 0.854 on Day 28. On Postnatal Days 1 and 3, gestational age best improved outcome prediction; on Postnatal Days 7, 14, 21, and 28, type of respiratory support did so. A Web-based model providing predicted estimates for bronchopulmonary dysplasia by postnatal day is available at https://neonatal.rti.org.
Conclusions: The probability of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in extremely premature infants can be determined accurately using a limited amount of readily available clinical information.
doi:10.1164/rccm.201101-0055OC
PMCID: PMC3136997  PMID: 21471086
bronchopulmonary dysplasia; prematurity; low-birth-weight infant
3.  Hypocarbia and Adverse Outcome in Neonatal Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy 
The Journal of pediatrics  2010;158(5):752-758.e1.
Objective
To evaluate the association between early hypocarbia and 18-22 month outcome among neonates with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (HIE).
Study design
Data from the NICHD NRN randomized controlled trial of whole body hypothermia for neonatal HIE were used for this secondary observational study. Infants (n=204) had multiple blood gases recorded from birth-12h of study intervention (hypothermia vs. intensive care alone). The relationship between hypocarbia and outcome (death/disability at 18-22 months) was evaluated by unadjusted and adjusted analyses examining minimum PCO2 and cumulative exposure to PCO2 <35 mmHg. The relationship between cumulative PCO2 <35 mmHg (calculated as the difference between 35mmHg and the sampled PCO2 multiplied by the duration of time spent <35 mmHg) and outcome was evaluated by level of exposure (none-high) using a multiple logistic regression analysis with adjustments for pH, level of encephalopathy, treatment group (± hypothermia), time to spontaneous respiration and ventilator days; results were expressed as OR and 95% confidence intervals. Alternative models of CO2 concentration were explored to account for fluctuations in CO2.
Results
Both minimum PCO2 and cumulative PCO2 <35mmHg were associated with poor outcome (P<0.05). Moreover, death/disability increased with greater cumulative exposure to PCO2 <35mmHg.
Conclusion
Hypocarbia is associated with poor outcome following HIE.
doi:10.1016/j.jpeds.2010.10.019
PMCID: PMC3229432  PMID: 21146184
hypocarbia; hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy; whole body hypothermia; outcome; neurodevelopmental impairment
4.  Impact of Postnatal Corticosteroid (PNS) Use on Neurodevelopment at 18-22 Months Adjusted Age: Effects of Dose, Timing and Risk of Bronchopulmonary Dysplasia in Extremely Low Birthweight Infants (ELBW) 
Pediatrics  2009;123(3):e430-e437.
Objective:
Postnatal steroid use in bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) decreases lung inflammation but increases impairment (NDI). We hypothesized that increased dose is associated with increased NDI, lower postmenstrual age (PMA) at exposure increases NDI and risk of BPD modifies the effect of PNS.
Methods:
Steroid dose and timing of exposure beyond 7 days was assessed among 2358 ELBW nested in a prospective trial, with 1667 (84%) survivors examined at 18-22 months PMA. Logistic regression tested the relationship between NDI (Bayley MDI/PDI < 70, disabling cerebral palsy (CP) or sensory impairment), total dose (tertiles < 0.9, 0.9-1.9, ≥ 1.9 mg/kg) and PMA at first dose. Separate logistic regression tested effect modification by BPD severity (Romagnoli Risk > 0.5 as high risk, n=2336 (99%) for days of life 4-7).
Results:
366 neonates (16%) were steroid treated (94% dexamethasone). Treated neonates were smaller and less mature. 72% of those treated were high risk for BPD. PNS exposure was associated with NDI/death (61 vs. 44%, p < 0.001). NDI increased with higher dose; 71% dead or impaired at highest dose tertile. Each 1 mg/kg was associated with a 2.0 point reduction in MDI and a 40% risk increase in disabling CP. (OR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.2-1.6). Older PMA did not mitigate the harm. Treatment after 33 weeks PMA was associated with greatest harm (NDI/death OR 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1-5.5) despite not receiving highest dose. The relationship of PNS to NDI was modified by BPD risk, (High risk OR 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4-2.6; Low risk OR 2.9, 95% CI: 1.8-4.8) with those at highest risk experiencing less harm.
Conclusion:
Higher PNS dose was associated with increased NDI. There is no “safe” window for PNS use in ELBWs. Neonates with low BPD risk should not be exposed. A randomized trial of PNS for infants at highest risk is warranted.
doi:10.1542/peds.2008-1928
PMCID: PMC2846831  PMID: 19204058
postnatal corticosteroids; neurodevelopmental impairment; extremely low birth weight infants

Results 1-4 (4)