Background

Individual exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is challenging to measure, particularly for diseases with substantial latency periods between first exposure and diagnosis of outcome, such as cancer. To guide the choice of surrogates for long-term UVR exposure in epidemiologic studies, we assessed how well stable sun-related individual characteristics and environmental/meteorological factors predicted daily personal UVR exposure measurements.

Methods

We evaluated 123 United States Radiologic Technologists subjects who wore personal UVR dosimeters for 8 hours daily for up to 7 days (N = 837 days). Potential predictors of personal UVR derived from a self-administered questionnaire, and public databases that provided daily estimates of ambient UVR and weather conditions. Factors potentially related to personal UVR exposure were tested individually and in a model including all significant variables.

Results

The strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure in the full model were ambient UVR, latitude, daily rainfall, and skin reaction to prolonged sunlight (R2 = 0.30). In a model containing only environmental and meteorological variables, ambient UVR, latitude, and daily rainfall were the strongest predictors of daily personal UVR exposure (R2 = 0.25).

Conclusions

In the absence of feasible measures of individual longitudinal sun exposure history, stable personal characteristics, ambient UVR, and weather parameters may help estimate long-term personal UVR exposure.

The development of a microneedle-based biosensor array for multiplexed in situ detection of exercise-induced metabolic acidosis, tumor microenvironment, and other variations in tissue chemistry is described. Simultaneous and selective amperometric detection of pH, glucose, and lactate over a range of physiologically-relevant concentrations in complex media is demonstrated. Furthermore, materials modified with a cell-resistant (Lipidure®) coating were shown to inhibit macrophage adhesion; no signs of coating delamination were noted over a 48-hour period.

Purpose

To characterize tumor growth and metastatic potential in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) cell lines in an orthotopic murine model of oral tongue cancer, and to correlate TP53 mutation status with these findings.

Experimental Design

Cells from each of 48 HNSCC cell lines were orthotopically injected into the oral tongues of nude mice. Tumor volume, cervical lymph node metastasis, and mouse survival were recorded. Direct sequencing of the TP53 gene and western blot analysis for the p53 protein after induction with 5-fluorouracil was performed. Cell lines were categorized as either mutant TP53 or wild-type TP53, and lines with TP53 mutation were further categorized on the basis of type of mutation (disruptive or non-disruptive), and level of p53 protein expression. The behavior of tumors in these different groups was compared.

Results

The 48 HNSCC cell lines showed a wide range of behavior from highly aggressive and metastatic to no tumor formation. Mice injected with cells harboring disruptive TP53 mutations had faster tumor growth, greater incidence of cervical lymph node metastasis, and shorter survival than mice injected with cells lacking these mutations.

Conclusions

HNSCC cell lines display a wide spectrum of behavior in an orthotopic model of oral cancer. Cell lines with disruptive TP53 mutations are more aggressive in this system, corroborating clinical reports that have linked these mutations to poor patient outcome.

Ion channel mutations are an important cause of rare Mendelian disorders affecting brain, heart, and other tissues. We performed parallel exome sequencing of 237 channel genes in a well characterized human sample, comparing variant profiles of unaffected individuals to those with the most common neuronal excitability disorder, sporadic idiopathic epilepsy. Rare missense variation in known Mendelian disease genes is prevalent in both groups at similar complexity, revealing that even deleterious ion channel mutations confer uncertain risk to an individual depending on the other variants with which they are combined. Our findings indicate that variant discovery via large scale sequencing efforts is only a first step in illuminating the complex allelic architecture underlying personal disease risk. We propose that in silico modeling of channel variation in realistic cell and network models will be crucial to future strategies assessing mutation profile pathogenicity and drug response in individuals with a broad spectrum of excitability disorders.

Background

The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) Network recently comprehensively catalogued the molecular aberrations in 487 high-grade serous ovarian cancers, with much remaining to be elucidated regarding the microRNAs (miRNAs). Here, using TCGA ovarian data, we surveyed the miRNAs, in the context of their predicted gene targets.

Methods and Results

Integration of miRNA and gene patterns yielded evidence that proximal pairs of miRNAs are processed from polycistronic primary transcripts, and that intronic miRNAs and their host gene mRNAs derive from common transcripts. Patterns of miRNA expression revealed multiple tumor subtypes and a set of 34 miRNAs predictive of overall patient survival. In a global analysis, miRNA:mRNA pairs anti-correlated in expression across tumors showed a higher frequency of in silico predicted target sites in the mRNA 3′-untranslated region (with less frequency observed for coding sequence and 5′-untranslated regions). The miR-29 family and predicted target genes were among the most strongly anti-correlated miRNA:mRNA pairs; over-expression of miR-29a in vitro repressed several anti-correlated genes (including DNMT3A and DNMT3B) and substantially decreased ovarian cancer cell viability.

Conclusions

This study establishes miRNAs as having a widespread impact on gene expression programs in ovarian cancer, further strengthening our understanding of miRNA biology as it applies to human cancer. As with gene transcripts, miRNAs exhibit high diversity reflecting the genomic heterogeneity within a clinically homogeneous disease population. Putative miRNA:mRNA interactions, as identified using integrative analysis, can be validated. TCGA data are a valuable resource for the identification of novel tumor suppressive miRNAs in ovarian as well as other cancers.

Aims. (1) To assess the efficacy and safety of pediatric office-based sedation for ophthalmologic procedures using a pediatric sedation service model. (2) To assess the reduction in hospital charges of this model of care delivery compared to the operating room (OR) setting for similar procedures. Background. Sedation is used to facilitate pediatric procedures and to immobilize patients for imaging and examination. We believe that the pediatric sedation service model can be used to facilitate office-based deep sedation for brief ophthalmologic procedures and examinations. Methods. After IRB approval, all children who underwent office-based ophthalmologic procedures at our institution between January 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 were identified using the sedation service database and the electronic health record. A comparison of hospital charges between similar procedures in the operating room was performed. Results. A total of 855 procedures were reviewed. Procedure completion rate was 100% (C.I. 99.62–100). There were no serious complications or unanticipated admissions. Our analysis showed a significant reduction in hospital charges (average of $1287 per patient) as a result of absent OR and recovery unit charges. Conclusions. Pediatric ophthalmologic minor procedures can be performed using a sedation service model with significant reductions in hospital charges.

Phenotypic analysis of defects caused by RNA mediated interference (RNAi) in Caenorhabditis elegans has proven to be a powerful tool for determining gene function. In this study we investigated the effectiveness of RNAi in four non-model grassland soil nematodes, Oscheius sp FVV-2., Rhabditis sp, Mesorhabditis sp., and Acrobeloides sp. In contrast to reference experiments performed using C. elegans and Caenorhabditis briggsae, feeding bacteria expressing dsRNA and injecting dsRNA into the gonad did not produce the expected RNAi knockdown phenotypes in any of the grassland nematodes. Quantitative reverse-transcribed PCR (qRT-PCR) assays did not detect a statistically significant reduction in the mRNA levels of endogenous genes targeted by RNAi in Oscheius sp., and Mesorhabditis sp. From these studies we conclude that due to low effectiveness and inconsistent reproducibility, RNAi knockdown phenotypes in non-Caenorhabditis nematodes should be interpreted cautiously.

Personalized genomic medicine and surgery (PGMS) represents a new approach to health care that customizes patients’ medical treatment according to their own genetic information. This new approach is the result of increased knowledge of the human genome and ways this information can be applied by physicians in the medical and surgical management of their patients. A patient’s genotype can yield important information concerning disease susceptibility and the effectiveness of medications, therefore guiding specific, targeted imaging and treatment therapies. This review summarizes major achievements of human genomic studies and applications of genomics in health care. Five years ago we developed a model for the development of PGMS in which genomic profile guides choice of therapy. In this article we discussed our progress, including an updating of the model, and a future vision of PGMS.

Clinical cancer genetic susceptibility analysis typically proceeds sequentially beginning with the most likely causative gene. The process is time consuming and the yield is low particularly for families with unusual patterns of cancer. We determined the results of in parallel mutation analysis of a large cancer-associated gene panel. We performed deletion analysis and sequenced the coding regions of 45 genes (8 oncogenes and 37 tumor suppressor or DNA repair genes) in 48 childhood cancer patients who also (1) were diagnosed with a second malignancy under age 30, (2) have a sibling diagnosed with cancer under age 30 and/or (3) have a major congenital anomaly or developmental delay. Deleterious mutations were identified in 6 of 48 (13%) families, 4 of which met the sibling criteria. Mutations were identified in genes previously implicated in both dominant and recessive childhood syndromes including SMARCB1, PMS2, and TP53. No pathogenic deletions were identified. This approach has provided efficient identification of childhood cancer susceptibility mutations and will have greater utility as additional cancer susceptibility genes are identified. Integrating parallel analysis of large gene panels into clinical testing will speed results and increase diagnostic yield. The failure to detect mutations in 87% of families highlights that a number of childhood cancer susceptibility genes remain to be discovered.

Generation of cAMP by G protein–coupled receptors (GPCRs) and its termination is currently thought to occur exclusively at the plasma membrane of cells. Under existing models of receptor regulation, this signal is primarily restricted by desensitizationof the receptors through their binding to β-arrestins. However, this paradigm is not consistent with recent observations that the parathyroid hormone receptor type 1 (PTHR) continues to stimulate cAMP production even after receptor internalization, as β-arrestins are known to rapidly bind and internalize activated PTHR. Here we show that β-arrestin1 binding prolongs rather than terminates cAMP generation by PTHR, and that cAMP generation correlates with the persistence of arrestin-receptor complexes on endosomes. We found that PTHR signaling is instead turned-off by the retromer complex, which regulates traffic of internalized receptor from endosomes to the Golgi apparatus. Thus, binding by the retromer complex regulates sustained cAMP generation triggered by an internalized GPCR.

Ciliary dysfunction leads to a broad range of overlapping phenotypes, termed collectively as ciliopathies. This grouping is underscored by genetic overlap, where causal genes can also contribute modifying alleles to clinically distinct disorders. Here we show that mutations in TTC21B/IFT139, encoding a retrograde intraflagellar transport (IFT) protein, cause both isolated nephronophthisis (NPHP) and syndromic Jeune Asphyxiating Thoracic Dystrophy (JATD). Moreover, although systematic medical resequencing of a large, clinically diverse ciliopathy cohort and matched controls showed a similar frequency of rare changes, in vivo and in vitro evaluations unmasked a significant enrichment of pathogenic alleles in cases, suggesting that TTC21B contributes pathogenic alleles to ∼5% of ciliopathy patients. Our data illustrate how genetic lesions can be both causally associated with diverse ciliopathies, as well as interact in trans with other disease-causing genes, and highlight how saturated resequencing followed by functional analysis of all variants informs the genetic architecture of disorders.

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is the sixth most common cancer worldwide. To explore the genetic origins of this cancer, we used whole exome sequencing and gene copy number analyses to study 32 primary tumors. Tumors from patients with a history of tobacco use had more mutations than did tumors from patients who did not use tobacco, and tumors that were negative for human papilloma virus (HPV) had more mutations than did HPV-positive tumors. Six of the genes that were mutated in multiple tumors were assessed in up to 88 additional HNSCCs. In addition to previously described mutations in TP53, CDKN2A, PIK3CA and HRAS, we identified mutations in FBXW7 and NOTCH1. Interestingly, nearly 40% of the 28 mutations identified in NOTCH1 were predicted to truncate the gene product, suggesting that NOTCH1 may function as a tumor suppressor gene rather than an oncogene in this tumor type.

While Wnt-Frizzled (Fzd) signaling is critical in the pathophysiology of carcinomas, its role in human breast cancer has been difficult to establish. We show here that the adaptor protein Na+/H+ Exchange Regulatory Factor1 (NHERF1), a protein abundantly expressed in normal mammary epithelium, regulates Wnt signaling, maintaining low levels of β-catenin activation. NHERF1’s effects are mediated by direct interactions between one of its PSD-95/Drosophila discs large/ZO-1 domains (PDZ domains) and the C-terminus of a subset of Fzd receptors. Loss of NHERF1 in breast cancer cell lines enhances canonical Wnt signaling and Wnt-dependent cell proliferation. Furthermore, the mammary glands of NHERF1 knockout mice exhibit increased mammary duct density accompanied by increased proliferation and β-catenin activity. Finally, we demonstrate a negative correlation between NHERF1 expression and nuclear β-catenin in human breast carcinomas. Taken together, these results provide novel insight into the regulation of Wnt signaling in normal and neoplastic breast tissues, and identify NHERF1 as an important regulator of the pathogenesis of breast tumors.

Background

Exploring spatial-temporal patterns of disease incidence through cluster analysis identifies areas of significantly elevated or decreased risk, providing potential clues about disease risk factors. Little is known about the etiology of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), or the latency period that might be relevant for environmental exposures, and there are no published spatial-temporal cluster studies of NHL.

Methods

We conducted a population-based case-control study of NHL in four National Cancer Institute (NCI)-Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) centers: Detroit, Iowa, Los Angeles, and Seattle during 1998-2000. Using 20-year residential histories, we used generalized additive models adjusted for known risk factors to model spatially the probability that an individual had NHL and to identify clusters of elevated or decreased NHL risk. We evaluated models at five different time periods to explore the presence of clusters in a time frame of etiologic relevance.

Results

The best model fit was for residential locations 20 years prior to diagnosis in Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles. We found statistically significant areas of elevated risk of NHL in three of the four study areas (Detroit, Iowa, and Los Angeles) at a lag time of 20 years. The two areas of significantly elevated risk in the Los Angeles study area were detected only at a time lag of 20 years. Clusters in Detroit and Iowa were detected at several time points.

Conclusions

We found significant spatial clusters of NHL after allowing for disease latency and residential mobility. Our results show the importance of evaluating residential histories when studying spatial patterns of cancer.

Background

Rhesus macaques are the most widely utilized nonhuman primate model in biomedical research. Previous efforts have validated fewer than 900 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in this species, which limits opportunities for genetic studies related to health and disease. Extensive information about SNPs and other genetic variation in rhesus macaques would facilitate valuable genetic analyses, as well as provide markers for genome-wide linkage analysis and the genetic management of captive breeding colonies.

Results

We used the available rhesus macaque draft genome sequence, new sequence data from unrelated individuals and existing published sequence data to create a genome-wide SNP resource for Indian-origin rhesus monkeys. The original reference animal and two additional Indian-origin individuals were resequenced to low coverage using SOLiD™ sequencing. We then used three strategies to validate SNPs: comparison of potential SNPs found in the same individual using two different sequencing chemistries, and comparison of potential SNPs in different individuals identified with either the same or different sequencing chemistries. Our approach validated approximately 3 million SNPs distributed across the genome. Preliminary analysis of SNP annotations suggests that a substantial number of these macaque SNPs may have functional effects. More than 700 non-synonymous SNPs were scored by Polyphen-2 as either possibly or probably damaging to protein function and these variants now constitute potential models for studying functional genetic variation relevant to human physiology and disease.

Conclusions

Resequencing of a small number of animals identified greater than 3 million SNPs. This provides a significant new information resource for rhesus macaques, an important research animal. The data also suggests that overall genetic variation is high in this species. We identified many potentially damaging non-synonymous coding SNPs, providing new opportunities to identify rhesus models for human disease.

Summary

Background

Lowering LDL cholesterol with statin regimens reduces the risk of myocardial infarction, ischaemic stroke, and the need for coronary revascularisation in people without kidney disease, but its effects in people with moderate-to-severe kidney disease are uncertain. The SHARP trial aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of the combination of simvastatin plus ezetimibe in such patients.

Methods

This randomised double-blind trial included 9270 patients with chronic kidney disease (3023 on dialysis and 6247 not) with no known history of myocardial infarction or coronary revascularisation. Patients were randomly assigned to simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily versus matching placebo. The key prespecified outcome was first major atherosclerotic event (non-fatal myocardial infarction or coronary death, non-haemorrhagic stroke, or any arterial revascularisation procedure). All analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00125593, and ISRCTN54137607.

Findings

4650 patients were assigned to receive simvastatin plus ezetimibe and 4620 to placebo. Allocation to simvastatin plus ezetimibe yielded an average LDL cholesterol difference of 0·85 mmol/L (SE 0·02; with about two-thirds compliance) during a median follow-up of 4·9 years and produced a 17% proportional reduction in major atherosclerotic events (526 [11·3%] simvastatin plus ezetimibe vs 619 [13·4%] placebo; rate ratio [RR] 0·83, 95% CI 0·74–0·94; log-rank p=0·0021). Non-significantly fewer patients allocated to simvastatin plus ezetimibe had a non-fatal myocardial infarction or died from coronary heart disease (213 [4·6%] vs 230 [5·0%]; RR 0·92, 95% CI 0·76–1·11; p=0·37) and there were significant reductions in non-haemorrhagic stroke (131 [2·8%] vs 174 [3·8%]; RR 0·75, 95% CI 0·60–0·94; p=0·01) and arterial revascularisation procedures (284 [6·1%] vs 352 [7·6%]; RR 0·79, 95% CI 0·68–0·93; p=0·0036). After weighting for subgroup-specific reductions in LDL cholesterol, there was no good evidence that the proportional effects on major atherosclerotic events differed from the summary rate ratio in any subgroup examined, and, in particular, they were similar in patients on dialysis and those who were not. The excess risk of myopathy was only two per 10 000 patients per year of treatment with this combination (9 [0·2%] vs 5 [0·1%]). There was no evidence of excess risks of hepatitis (21 [0·5%] vs 18 [0·4%]), gallstones (106 [2·3%] vs 106 [2·3%]), or cancer (438 [9·4%] vs 439 [9·5%], p=0·89) and there was no significant excess of death from any non-vascular cause (668 [14·4%] vs 612 [13·2%], p=0·13).

Interpretation

Reduction of LDL cholesterol with simvastatin 20 mg plus ezetimibe 10 mg daily safely reduced the incidence of major atherosclerotic events in a wide range of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease.

Funding

Merck/Schering-Plough Pharmaceuticals; Australian National Health and Medical Research Council; British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council.

Background

Hybridization of heterologous (non-specific) nucleic acids onto arrays designed for model-organisms has been proposed as a viable genomic resource for estimating sequence variation and gene expression in non-model organisms. However, conventional methods of normalization that assume equivalent distributions (such as quantile normalization) are inappropriate when applied to non-specific (heterologous) hybridization. We propose an algorithm for normalizing and centering intensity data from heterologous hybridization that makes no prior assumptions of distribution, reduces the false appearance of homology, and provides a way for researchers to confirm whether heterologous hybridization is suitable.

Results

Data are normalized by adjusting for Gibbs free energy binding, and centered by adjusting for the median of a common set of control probes assumed to be equivalently dissimilar for all species. This procedure was compared to existing approaches and found to be as successful as Loess normalization at detecting sequence variations (deletions) and even more successful than quantile normalization at reducing the accumulation of false positive probe matches between two related nematode species, Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae. Despite the improvements, we still found that probe fluorescence intensity was too poorly correlated with sequence similarity to result in reliable detection of matching probe sequence.

Conclusions

Cross-species hybridizations can be a way to adapt genome-enabled tools for closely related non-model organisms, but data must be appropriately normalized and centered in a way that accommodates hybridization of nucleic acids with diverged sequence. For short, 25-mer probes, hybridization intensity alone may be insufficiently correlated with sequence similarity to allow reliable inference of homology at the probe level.

Background

Despite the recent publication of results from two randomized clinical trials, prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer remains a controversial issue. There is lack of agreement across studies that PSA screening significantly reduces prostate cancer mortality. In spite of these facts, the widespread use of PSA testing in the United States leads to overdetection and overtreatment of clinically indolent prostate cancer, and its associated harms of incontinence and impotence.

Discussion

Given the inconclusive results from clinical trials and incongruent PSA screening guidelines, the decision to screen for prostate cancer with PSA testing is an uncertain one for patients and health care providers. Screening guidelines from some health organizations recommend an informed decision making (IDM) or shared decision making (SDM) approach for deciding on PSA screening. These approaches aim to empower patients to choose among the available options by making them active participants in the decision making process. By increasing involvement of patients in the clinical decision-making process, IDM/SDM places more of the responsibility for a complex decision on the patient. Research suggests, however, that patients are not well-informed of the harms and benefits associated with prostate cancer screening and are also subject to an assortment of biases, emotion, fears, and irrational thought that interferes with making an informed decision. In response, the IDM/SDM approaches can be augmented with strategies from the philosophy of libertarian paternalism (LP) to improve decision making. LP uses the insights of behavioural economics to help people better make better choices. Some of the main strategies of LP applicable to PSA decision making are a default decision rule, framing of decision aids, and timing of the decision. In this paper, we propose that applying strategies from libertarian paternalism can help with PSA screening decision-making.

Summary

Our proposal to augment IDM and SDM approaches with libertarian paternalism strategies is intended to guide patients toward a better decision about testing while maintaining personal freedom of choice. While PSA screening remains controversial and evidence conflicting, a libertarian-paternalism influenced approach to decision making can help prevent the overdiagnosis and overtreatment of prostate cancer.

Summary

Background

Cytomegalovirus end-organ disease can be prevented by giving ganciclovir when viraemia is detected in allograft recipients. Values of viral load correlate with development of end-organ disease and are moderated by pre-existing natural immunity. Our aim was to determine whether vaccine-induced immunity could do likewise.

Methods

We undertook a phase-2 randomised placebo controlled trial in adults awaiting kidney or liver transplantation at the Royal Free Hospital, London, UK. Exclusion criteria were pregnancy, receipt of blood products (except albumin) in the previous 3 months, and simultaneous multiorgan transplantation. 70 patients seronegative and 70 seropositive for cytomegalovirus were randomly assigned from a scratch-off randomisation code in a 1:1 ratio to receive either cytomegalovirus glycoprotein-B vaccine with MF59 adjuvant or placebo, each given at baseline, 1 month and 6 months later. If a patient was transplanted, no further vaccinations were given and serial blood samples were tested for cytomegalovirus DNA by real-time quantitative PCR (rtqPCR). Any patient with one blood sample containing more than 3000 cytomegalovirus genomes per mL received ganciclovir until two consecutive undetectable cytomegalovirus DNA measurements. Safety and immunogenicity were coprimary endpoints and were assessed by intention to treat in patients who received at least one dose of vaccine or placebo. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00299260.

Findings

67 patients received vaccine and 73 placebo, all of whom were evaluable. Glycoprotein-B antibody titres were significantly increased in both seronegative (geometric mean titre 12 537 (95% CI 6593–23 840) versus 86 (63–118) in recipients of placebo recipients; p<0·0001) and seropositive (118 395; 64 503–217 272) versus 24 682 (17 909–34 017); p<0·0001) recipients of vaccine. In those who developed viraemia after transplantation, glycoprotein-B antibody titres correlated inversely with duration of viraemia (p=0·0022). In the seronegative patients with seropositive donors, the duration of viraemia (p=0·0480) and number of days of ganciclovir treatment (p=0·0287) were reduced in vaccine recipients.

Interpretation

Although cytomegalovirus disease occurs in the context of suppressed cell-mediated immunity post-transplantation, humoral immunity has a role in reduction of cytomegalovirus viraemia. Vaccines containing cytomegalovirus glycoprotein B merit further assessment in transplant recipients.

Funding

National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Grant R01AI051355 and Wellcome Trust, Grant 078332. Sponsor: University College London (UCL).

Many diagnostic tools and goodness-of-fit measures, such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian deviance information criterion (DIC), are available to evaluate the overall adequacy of linear regression models. In addition, visually assessing adequacy in models has become an essential part of any regression analysis. In this paper, we focus on a spatial consideration of the local DIC measure for model selection and goodness-of-fit evaluation. We use a partitioning of the DIC into the local DIC, leverage, and deviance residuals to assess local model fit and influence for both individual observations and groups of observations in a Bayesian framework. We use visualization of the local DIC and differences in local DIC between models to assist in model selection and to visualize the global and local impacts of adding covariates or model parameters. We demonstrate the utility of the local DIC in assessing model adequacy using HIV prevalence data from pregnant women in the Butare province of Rwanda during 1989-1993 using a range of linear model specifications, from global effects only to spatially varying coefficient models, and a set of covariates related to sexual behavior. Results of applying the diagnostic visualization approach include more refined model selection and greater understanding of the models as applied to the data.

The cougar (Puma concolor) is a large predatory feline found widely in the Americas that is susceptible to feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), a fast-evolving lentivirus found in wild feline species that is analogous to simian immunodeficiency viruses in wild primates and belongs to the same family of viruses as human immunodeficiency virus. FIV infection in cougars can lead to a weakened immune system that creates opportunities for other infecting agents. FIV prevalence and lineages have been studied previously in several areas in the western United States, but typically without spatially explicit statistical techniques. To describe the distribution of FIV in a sample of cougars located in the northern Rocky Mountain region of North America, we first used kernel density ratio estimation to map the log relative risk of FIV. The risk surface showed a significant cluster of FIV in northwestern Montana. We also used Bayesian cluster models for genetic data to investigate the spatial structure of the feline immunodeficiency virus with virus genetic sequence data. A result of the models was two spatially distinct FIV lineages that aligned considerably with an interstate highway in Montana. Our results suggest that the use of spatial information and models adds novel insight when investigating an infectious animal disease. The results also suggest that the influence of landscape features likely plays an important role in the spatiotemporal spread of an infectious disease within wildlife populations.

Background

Validated prediction scores are required to assess the risks of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Study Design

Prospective cohort study with validation in a separate cohort.

Setting & Participants

Cox regression was used to assess the relevance of baseline characteristics to risk of ESRD (mean follow-up, 4.1 years) and death (mean follow-up, 6.0 years) in 382 patients with stages 3-5 CKD not initially on dialysis therapy in the Chronic Renal Impairment in Birmingham (CRIB) Study. Resultant risk prediction equations were tested in a separate cohort of 213 patients with CKD (the East Kent cohort).

Factors

44 baseline characteristics (including 30 blood and urine assays).

Outcomes

ESRD and all-cause mortality.

Results

In the CRIB cohort, 190 patients reached ESRD (12.1%/y) and 150 died (6.5%/y). Each 30% lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was associated with a 3-fold higher ESRD rate and a 1.3-fold higher death rate. After adjustment for each other, only baseline creatinine level, serum phosphate level, urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, and female sex remained strongly (P < 0.01) predictive of ESRD. For death, age, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide, troponin T level, and cigarette smoking remained strongly predictive of risk. Using these factors to predict outcomes in the East Kent cohort yielded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ie, C statistic) of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.87-0.96) for ESRD and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.75-0.89) for death.

Limitations

Other important factors may have been missed because of limited study power.

Conclusions

Simple laboratory measures of kidney and cardiac function plus age, sex, and smoking history can be used to help identify patients with CKD at highest risk of ESRD and death. Larger cohort studies are required to further validate these results.

Background. A number of US observational studies reported an increased mortality risk with higher intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH), calcium and/or phosphate. The existence of such a link in a European haemodialysis population was explored as part of the Analysing Data, Recognising Excellence and Optimising Outcomes (ARO) Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Research Initiative.

Methods. The association between the markers of mineral and bone disease and clinical outcomes was examined in 7970 patients treated in European Fresenius Medical Care facilities over a median of 21 months. Baseline and time-dependent (TD) Cox regression were performed using Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) target ranges as reference categories, adjusting for demographics, medical history, dialysis parameters, inflammation, medications and laboratory parameters. Fractional polynomial (FP) models were also used.

Results. Hazard ratio (HR) estimates from baseline analysis for iPTH were U-shaped [>600 pg/mL, HR = 2.10, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.62–2.73; <75 pg/mL, HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.17–1.83]. TD analysis confirmed the results for iPTH. Baseline analysis showed that calcium >2.75 mmol/L increased risk of death (HR = 1.70, 95% CI 1.19–2.42). TD analysis showed that both low (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.04–1.37) and high calcium (HR = 1.74, 95% CI 1.30–2.34) increased risk of death. Baseline analysis for phosphate showed a U-shaped pattern (<1.13 mmol/L, HR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.01–1.37; >1.78 mmol/L, HR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.13–1.55). TD analysis confirmed the results for phosphate <1.13 mmol/L. HR estimates were higher in patients with diabetes versus those without diabetes for baseline analysis only (P-value = 0.014). FP analysis confirmed the results of baseline and TD analyses.

Conclusion. Patients with iPTH, calcium and phosphate levels within the KDOQI target ranges have the lowest risk of mortality compared with those outside the target ranges.