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1.  Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis 
Wormser, David | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Kaptoge, Stephen | Wood, Angela M | Gao, Pei | Sun, Qi | Walldius, Göran | Selmer, Randi | Verschuren, WM Monique | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Engström, Gunnar | Ridker, Paul M | Njølstad, Inger | Iso, Hiroyasu | Holme, Ingar | Giampaoli, Simona | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Gaziano, J Michael | Brunner, Eric | Kee, Frank | Tosetto, Alberto | Meisinger, Christa | Brenner, Hermann | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Whincup, Peter H | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Ian | Cremer, Peter | Hofman, Albert | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Clarke, Robert | de Boer, Ian H | Jukema, J Wouter | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Lawlor, Debbie A | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Casiglia, Edoardo | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Simons, Leon A | Nietert, Paul J | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Björkelund, Cecilia | Strandberg, Timo E | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Blazer, Dan G | Meade, Tom W | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Woodward, Mark | Nissinen, Aulikki | Kromhout, Daan | Jørgensen, Torben | Tilvis, Reijo S | Guralnik, Jack M | Rosengren, Annika | Taylor, James O | Kiechl, Stefan | Dagenais, Gilles R | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Wallace, Robert B | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Visser, Marjolein | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Kitamura, Akihiko | Sundström, Johan | Wennberg, Patrik | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Daimon, Makoto | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Cooper, Jackie A | Onat, Altan | Devereux, Richard | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Dankner, Rachel | Knuiman, Matthew W | Crespo, Carlos J | Gansevoort, Ron T | Goldbourt, Uri | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Shaw, Jonathan E | Mussolino, Michael | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Fletcher, Astrid | Kuller, Lewis H | Gillum, Richard F | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Assmann, Gerd | Wald, Nicholas | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Greenland, Philip | Trevisan, Maurizio | Ulmer, Hanno | Butterworth, Adam S | Folsom, Aaron R | Davey-Smith, George | Hu, Frank B | Danesh, John | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Charles E | Simpson, Lara M | Walldius, Göran | Jungner, Ingmar | Folsom, Aaron R | Demerath, Ellen W | Franceschini, Nora | Lutsey, Pamela L | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Pitsavos, Christos | Chrysohoou, Christina | Stefanadis, Christodoulos | Shaw, Jonathan E | Atkins, Robert | Zimmet, Paul Z | Barr, Elizabeth LM | Knuiman, Matthew W | Whincup, Peter H | Wannamethee, S Goya | Morris, Richard W | Willeit, Johann | Kiechl, Stefan | Weger, Siegfried | Oberhollenzer, Friedrich | Wald, Nicholas | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Yarnell, John WG | Casiglia, Edoardo | Tikhonoff, Valérie | Greenland, Philip | Shay, Christina M | Garside, Daniel B | Nietert, Paul J | Sutherland, Susan E | Bachman, David L | Keil, Julian E | de Boer, Ian H | Kizer, Jorge R | Psaty, Bruce M | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Jensen, Gorm B | Schnohr, Peter | Giampaoli, Simona | Palmieri, Luigi | Panico, Salvatore | Pilotto, Lorenza | Vanuzzo, Diego | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Simons, Leon A | Simons, Judith | McCallum, John | Friedlander, Yechiel | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Price, Jackie F | Lee, Amanda J | Taylor, James O | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Wallace, Robert B | Kohout, Frank J | Cornoni-Huntley, Joan C | Guralnik, Jack M | Blazer, Dan G | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Phillips, Caroline L | Guralnik, Jack M | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Rothenbacher, Dietrich | Wennberg, Patrik | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Nissinen, Aulikki | Donfrancesco, Chiara | Giampaoli, Simona | Woodward, Mark | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Vasan, Ramachandran S | Fox, Caroline S | Pencina, Michael J | Daimon, Makoto | Oizumi, Toshihide | Kayama, Takamasa | Kato, Takeo | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Møller, Lars | Jespersen, Jørgen | Dankner, Rachel | Chetrit, Angela | Lubin, Flora | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Welin, Lennart | Lappas, Georgios | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Lappas, Georgios | Bengtsson, Calle | Lissner, Lauren | Björkelund, Cecilia | Cremer, Peter | Nagel, Dorothea | Strandberg, Timo E | Salomaa, Veikko | Tilvis, Reijo S | Miettinen, Tatu A | Tilvis, Reijo S | Strandberg, Timo E | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Dekker, Jacqueline M | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Rimm, Eric B | Willett, Walter C | Iso, Hiroyasu | Kitamura, Akihiko | Yamagishi, Kazumasa | Noda, Hiroyuki | Goldbourt, Uri | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Kurl, Sudhir | Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka | Poppelaars, Jan L | Deeg, Dorly JH | Visser, Marjolein | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Hedblad, Bo | Nilsson, Peter | Engström, Gunnar | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | de Boer, Ian H | Shea, Steven J | Meisinger, Christa | Thorand, Barbara | Koenig, Wolfgang | Döring, Angela | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Fletcher, Astrid | Nitsch, Dorothea | Kuller, Lewis H | Grandits, Greg | Tverdal, Aage | Selmer, Randi | Nystad, Wenche | Mussolino, Michael | Gillum, Richard F | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Manson, JoAnn E | Rimm, Eric B | Hankinson, Susan E | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Cooper, Jackie A | Bauer, Kenneth A | Davidson, Karina W | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Shimbo, Daichi | Kitamura, Akihiko | Iso, Hiroyasu | Sato, Shinichi | Holme, Ingar | Selmer, Randi | Tverdal, Aage | Nystad, Wenche | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Miura, Katsuyuki | Sakurai, Masaru | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Jouven, Xavier | Bakker, Stephan JL | Gansevoort, Ron T | van der Harst, Pim | Hillege, Hans L | Crespo, Carlos J | Garcia-Palmieri, Mario R | Kee, Frank | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Ferrières, Jean | Schulte, Helmut | Assmann, Gerd | Jukema, J Wouter | de Craen, Anton JM | Sattar, Naveed | Stott, David J | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Després, Jean-Pierre | Dagenais, Gilles R | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Bergstrom, Jaclyn | Bettencourt, Richele R | Buisson, Catherine | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Trevisan, Maurizio | Hofman, Albert | Ikram, M Arfan | Tiemeier, Henning | Witteman, Jacqueline CM | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Tavendale, Roger | Lowe, Gordon DO | Woodward, Mark | Devereux, Richard | Yeh, Jeun-Liang | Ali, Tauqeer | Calhoun, Darren | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Davey-Smith, George | Onat, Altan | Can, Günay | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Sakurai, Masaru | Nakamura, Koshi | Morikawa, Yuko | Njølstad, Inger | Mathiesen, Ellisiv B | Løchen, Maja-Lisa | Wilsgaard, Tom | Sundström, Johan | Ingelsson, Erik | Michaëlsson, Karl | Cederholm, Tommy | Gaziano, J Michael | Buring, Julie | Ridker, Paul M | Gaziano, J Michael | Ridker, Paul M | Ulmer, Hanno | Diem, Günter | Concin, Hans | Rodeghiero, Francesco | Tosetto, Alberto | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Manson, JoAnn E | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimaki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M | Buring, Julie | Ford, Ian | Robertson, Michele | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Feskens, Edith | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Kromhout, Daan | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Franco, Oscar H | Gao, Pei | Gobin, Reeta | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Seshasai, Sreenivasa R Kondapally | Lewington, Sarah | Pennells, Lisa | Rapsomaniki, Eleni | Sarwar, Nadeem | Thompson, Alexander | Thompson, Simon G | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R | Wood, Angela M | Wormser, David | Zhao, Xiaohui | Danesh, John
Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.
Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual–participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.
Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5–1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96–0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93–0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03–1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90–0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12–1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80–0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.
Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
doi:10.1093/ije/dys086
PMCID: PMC3465767  PMID: 22825588
Height; cardiovascular disease; cancer; cause-specific mortality; epidemiological study; meta-analysis
2.  Emergency Medical Service Predictive Instrument Aided Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Coronary Syndromes and ST Elevation Myocardial Infarction in the IMMEDIATE Trial 
Background
Achallenge for emergency medical service (EMS) is accurate identification of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) and ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) for immediate treatment and transport. The electrocardiograph-based acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument (ACI-TIPI) and the thrombolytic predictive instrument (TPI) have been shown to improve diagnosis and treatment in emergency departments (EDs), but their use by paramedics in the community has been less studied.
Methods
Ambulances in study municipalities were outfitted with electrocardiographs with ACI-TIPI and TPI software. Using a before-after quasi-experimental design, in Phase 1, for seven months, paramedics were provided with the ACI-TIPI/TPI continuous 0–100% predictions automatically printed on electrocardiogram (ECG) text headers to supplement their identification of ACS; in Phase 2, for 11 months, paramedics were told to identify ACS based on an ACI-TIPI cutoff probability of ACS ≥ 75% and/or TPI detection of STEMI. In Phase 3, this cutoff approach was used in seven additional municipalities. Confirmed diagnoses of ACS, acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and STEMI were made by blinded physician review for 100% of patients.
Results
In Phase 1, paramedics identified 107 patients as having ACS; in Phase 2, 104. In Phase 1, 45.8% (49) of patients so-identified had ACS confirmed, which increased to 76.0% (79) in Phase 2 (p < 0.001). Of those with ACS, in Phase 1 59.2% (29) had AMI versus 84.8% (67) with AMI in Phase 2 (p <0.01), and, STEMI was confirmed, respectively, in 40.8% (20), versus 68.4% (54) (p <0.01). In Phase 3, of 226 patients identified by paramedics as having ACS, 74.3% (168) had ACS confirmed, of whom 81.0% (136) had AMI and 65.5% (110) had STEMI.
Conclusions
In a wide range of EMS systems, use of electrocardiographs with ACI-TIPI and TPI decision support using a 75% ACI-TIPI cutoff improves paramedic diagnostic performance for ACS, AMI, and STEMI.
doi:10.3109/10903127.2010.545478
PMCID: PMC4104416  PMID: 21366431
acute coronary syndromes; acute myocardial infarction; electrocardiology; emergency medical service; clinical decision support
3.  Nutritional Factors and Preservation of C-Peptide in Youth With Recently Diagnosed Type 1 Diabetes 
Diabetes Care  2013;36(7):1842-1850.
OBJECTIVE
To test the novel hypothesis that nutritional factors previously associated with type 1 diabetes etiology or with insulin secretion are prospectively associated with fasting C-peptide (FCP) concentration among youth recently diagnosed with type 1 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Included were 1,316 youth with autoantibody-positive type 1 diabetes who participated in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study (baseline disease duration, 9.9 months; SD, 6.3). Nutritional exposures included breastfeeding and age at introduction of complementary foods, baseline plasma long-chain omega-3 fatty acids including eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), vitamin D, vitamin E, and, from a baseline food frequency questionnaire, estimated intake of the branched-chain amino acid leucine and total carbohydrate. Multiple linear regression models were conducted to relate each nutritional factor to baseline FCP adjusted for demographics, disease-related factors, and other confounders. Prospective analyses included the subset of participants with preserved β-cell function at baseline (baseline FCP ≥0.23 ng/mL) with additional adjustment for baseline FCP and time (mean follow-up, 24.3 months; SD, 8.2; n = 656). FCP concentration was analyzed as log(FCP).
RESULTS
In adjusted prospective analyses, baseline EPA (P = 0.02), EPA plus DHA (P = 0.03), and leucine (P = 0.03) were each associated positively and significantly with FCP at follow-up. Vitamin D was unexpectedly inversely associated with FCP (P = 0.002).
CONCLUSIONS
Increased intake of branched-chain amino acids and long-chain omega-3 fatty acids may support preservation of β-cell function. This represents a new direction for research to improve prognosis for type 1 diabetes.
doi:10.2337/dc12-2084
PMCID: PMC3687285  PMID: 23801797
4.  “Causes” Of Pesticide Safety Behavior Change in Latino Farmworker Families 
Objective
To identify the source of behavior change resulting from a health education intervention focused on pesticide safety.
Methods
Data were from the La Familia Sana demonstration project, a promotora-delivered pesticide safety education intervention conducted with immigrant Latinos (N = 610).
Results
The La Familia Sana program produced changes in 3 sets of pesticide safety behaviors. Changes in the conceptual targets of the intervention and promotora attributes explained 0.45–6% and 0.5–3% of the changes in pesticide-related behavior, respectively.
Discussion
The conceptual targets of the La Familia Sana program explained the greatest amount of change in pesticide-related behavior. Promotora attributes also contributed to intervention success
doi:10.5993/AJHB.37.4.3
PMCID: PMC3997211  PMID: 23985226
pesticide safety; Latinos; Immigrants; lay health advisors; translational research
5.  Diabetes Self-Management Education Patterns in a US Population-based Cohort of Youth with Type 1 Diabetes 
The Diabetes educator  2013;40(1):29-39.
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to describe: 1) the receipt of diabetes self-management education (DSME) in a large, diverse cohort of US youth with type 1 diabetes (T1DM); 2) the segregation of self-reported DSME variables into domains; and 3) the demographic and clinical characteristics of youth who receive DSME.
Methods
Data are from the US population-based cohort, SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth. A cross-sectional analysis was employed using data from 1273 youth < 20 years of age at time of diagnosis of T1DM. Clusters of 19 self-reported DSME variables were derived using factor analysis and their associations with demographic and clinical characteristics were evaluated using polytomous logistic regression.
Results
Nearly all participants reported receiving DSME content consistent with ‘survival skills’ (e.g., target blood glucose and what to do for low or high blood glucose), yet gaps in continuing education were identified [e.g., fewer than half of participants reported receiving specific medical nutrition therapy (MNT) recommendations]. Five DSME clusters were explored: Receipt of Specific MNT Recommendations, Receipt of Diabetes Information Resources, Receipt of Clinic Visit Information, Receipt of Specific Diabetes Information, and Met with Educator or Nutritionist. Factor scores were significantly associated with demographic and clinical characteristics, including race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and diabetes self-management practices.
Conclusions
Health care providers should work together to address reported gaps in DSME in order to improve patient care.
doi:10.1177/0145721713512156
PMCID: PMC4076934  PMID: 24248833
6.  Standard forward-viewing colonoscopy versus full-spectrum endoscopy: an international, multicentre, randomised, tandem colonoscopy trial 
The lancet oncology  2014;15(3):353-360.
Summary
Background
Although colonoscopy is the accepted standard for detection of colorectal adenomas and cancers, many adenomas and some cancers are missed. To avoid interval colorectal cancer, the adenoma miss rate of colonoscopy needs to be reduced by improvement of colonoscopy technique and imaging capability. We aimed to compare the adenoma miss rates of full-spectrum endoscopy colonoscopy with those of standard forward-viewing colonoscopy.
Methods
We did an international, multicentre, randomised trial at three sites in Israel, one site in the Netherlands, and two sites in the USA between Feb 1, 2012, and March 31, 2013. Patients aged 18–70 years referred for colorectal cancer screening, polyp surveillance, or diagnostic assessment underwent same-day, back-to-back tandem colonoscopy with standard forward-viewing colonoscope and the full-spectrum endoscopy colonoscope. The patients were randomly assigned (1:1), via computer-generated randomisation with block size of 20, to which procedure was done first. The endoscopist was masked to group allocation until immediately before the start of colonoscopy examinations; patients were not masked. The primary endpoint was adenoma miss rates. We did per-protocol analyses. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01549535.
Findings
197 participants were enrolled. 185 participants were included in the per-protocol analyses: 88 (48%) were randomly assigned to receive standard forward-viewing colonoscopy first, and 97 (52%) to receive full-spectrum endoscopy colonoscopy first. By per-lesion analysis, the adenoma miss rate was significantly lower in patients in the full-spectrum endoscopy group than in those in the standard forward-viewing procedure group: five (7%) of 67 vs 20 (41%) of 49 adenomas were missed (p<0·0001). Standard forward-viewing colonoscopy missed 20 adenomas in 15 patients; of those, three (15%) were advanced adenomas. Full-spectrum endoscopy missed five adenomas in five patients in whom an adenoma had already been detected with first-pass standard forward-viewing colonoscopy; none of these missed adenomas were advanced. One patient was admitted to hospital for colitis detected at colonoscopy, whereas five minor adverse events were reported including vomiting, diarrhoea, cystitis, gastroenteritis, and bleeding.
Interpretation
Full-spectrum endoscopy represents a technology advancement for colonoscopy and could improve the efficacy of colorectal cancer screening and surveillance.
Funding
EndoChoice.
doi:10.1016/S1470-2045(14)70020-8
PMCID: PMC4062184  PMID: 24560453
7.  Early-Adulthood Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factor Profiles Among Individuals With and Without Diabetes in the Framingham Heart Study 
Diabetes Care  2013;36(6):1590-1596.
OBJECTIVE
Many studies of diabetes have examined risk factors at the time of diabetes diagnosis instead of considering the lifetime burden of adverse risk factor levels. We examined the 30-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor burden that participants have up to the time of diabetes diagnosis.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Among participants free of CVD, incident diabetes cases (fasting plasma glucose ≥126 mg/dL or treatment) occurring at examinations 2 through 8 (1979–2008) of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring cohort were age- and sex-matched 1:2 to controls. CVD risk factors (hypertension, high LDL cholesterol, low HDL cholesterol, high triglycerides, obesity) were measured at the time of diabetes diagnosis and at time points 10, 20, and 30 years prior. Conditional logistic regression was used to compare risk factor levels at each time point between diabetes cases and controls.
RESULTS
We identified 525 participants with new-onset diabetes who were matched to 1,049 controls (mean age, 60 years; 40% women). Compared with those without diabetes, individuals who eventually developed diabetes had higher levels of hypertension (odds ratio [OR], 2.2; P = 0.003), high LDL (OR, 1.5; P = 0.04), low HDL (OR, 2.1; P = 0.0001), high triglycerides (OR, 1.7; P = 0.04), and obesity (OR, 3.3; P < 0.0001) at time points 30 years before diabetes diagnosis. After further adjustment for BMI, the ORs for hypertension (OR, 1.9; P = 0.02) and low HDL (OR, 1.7; P = 0.01) remained statistically significant.
CONCLUSIONS
CVD risk factors are increased up to 30 years before diagnosis of diabetes. These findings highlight the importance of a life course approach to CVD risk factor identification among individuals at risk for diabetes.
doi:10.2337/dc12-1121
PMCID: PMC3661800  PMID: 23340887
8.  Study Design for the IMMEDIATE (Immediate Myocardial Metabolic Enhancement During Initial Assessment and Treatment in Emergency Care) Trial: A Double-blind Randomized Controlled Trial of Intravenous Glucose, Insulin, and Potassium (GIK) for Acute Coronary Syndromes in Emergency Medical Services 
American heart journal  2012;163(3):315-322.
Background
Experimental studies suggest that metabolic myocardial support by intravenous (IV) glucose, insulin, and potassium (GIK) reduces ischemia-induced arrhythmias, cardiac arrest, mortality, progression from unstable angina pectoris (UAP) to acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and MI size. However, trials of hospital administration of IV GIK to patients with ST elevation MI (STEMI) have generally not shown favorable effects, possibly due to the GIK intervention taking place many hours after ischemic symptom onset. A trial of GIK used in the very first hours of ischemia has been needed, consistent with the timing of benefit seen in experimental studies.
Objective
The Immediate Myocardial Metabolic Enhancement During Initial Assessment and Treatment in Emergency care (IMMEDIATE) Trial tested whether, if given very early, GIK could have the impact seen in experimental studies. Accordingly, distinct from prior trials, IMMEDIATE tested the impact of GIK 1) in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), rather than only AMI or STEMI, and 2) administered in prehospital emergency medical service (EMS) settings, rather than later, in hospitals, following emergency department evaluation.
Design
IMMEDIATE was an EMS-based randomized placebo-controlled clinical effectiveness trial conducted in 13 cities across the US which enrolled 911 participants. Eligible were patients age 30 or older for whom a paramedic performed a 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG)to evaluate chest pain or other symptoms suggestive of ACS for whom electrocardiograph-based ACI-TIPI (acute cardiac ischemia time-insensitive predictive instrument) indicated a > 75% probability of ACS, and/or the TPI (thrombolytic predictive instrument) indicated presence of a STEMI, or if local criteria for STEMI notification of receiving hospitals were met. Prehospital IV GIK or placebo was started immediately.
Pre-specified were the primary endpoint of progression of ACS to infarction, and as major secondary endpoints, the composite of cardiac arrest or in-hospital mortality; 30-day mortality; and the composite of cardiac arrest, 30-day mortality or hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Analyses were planned on an intent-to-treat basis, on a modified intent-to-treat group who were confirmed in emergency departments to have ACS, and for participants presenting with STEMI.
Conclusion
The IMMEDIATE Trial tested whether GIK, when administered as early as possible in the course of ACS by paramedics using ACI-TIPI and TPI decision support, would reduce progression to AMI, mortality, cardiac arrest, and HF. It also tested whether it would provide clinical and pathophysiological information on GIK’s biological mechanisms.
doi:10.1016/j.ahj.2012.02.002
PMCID: PMC4009621  PMID: 22424000
9.  Risk of type 2 diabetes and cumulative excess weight exposure in the framingham offspring study☆ 
Aim
Mid-life obesity is associated with T2D risk. However, less is known about the cumulative effect of obesity during adulthood.
Methods
Framingham Offspring Study participants who had an examination at 35±2 years and were initially free of T2D were included in this study (N=1026). A cumulative excess weight (CEW) score (year*kg/m2) was calculated until T2D diagnostic or the end of follow-up.
Results
Eighty-four individuals (8.2%) developed T2D over 20±6 years. Mean CEW scores were 118.0± 114.6 year*kg/m2 in individuals who developed T2D and 30.2±91.4 year*kg/m2 in those who did not develop T2D (P<0.01). T2D risk was doubled for each standard deviation increase in the CEW score (OR= 1.99 [1.64–2.40]; P<0.001). However, CEW score was only significantly associated with T2D incidence for participants with a baseline BMI <25 kg/m2 (OR =2.13 [1.36–3.36]; P <0.001).
Conclusions
Accumulating weight between the mid-thirties to the mid-fifties increases the risk of developing T2D. However, BMI in mid-thirties remains a stronger predictor of T2D risk.
doi:10.1016/j.jdiacomp.2012.11.009
PMCID: PMC3670768  PMID: 23312789
Adults; Aging; BMI; Diagnosis; Epidemiology
10.  Understanding Increments in Model Performance Metrics 
Lifetime data analysis  2012;19(2):10.1007/s10985-012-9238-0.
The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is the most commonly reported measure of discrimination for prediction models with binary outcomes. However, recently it has been criticized for its inability to increase when important risk factors are added to a baseline model with good discrimination. This has led to the claim that the reliance on the AUC as a measure of discrimination may miss important improvements in clinical performance of risk prediction rules derived from a baseline model. In this paper we investigate this claim by relating the AUC to measures of clinical performance based on sensitivity and specificity under the assumption of multivariate normality. The behavior of the AUC is contrasted with that of discrimination slope. We show that unless rules with very good specificity are desired, the change in the AUC does an adequate job as a predictor of the change in measures of clinical performance. However, stronger or more numerous predictors are needed to achieve the same increment in the AUC for baseline models with good versus poor discrimination. When excellent specificity is desired, our results suggest that the discrimination slope might be a better measure of model improvement than AUC. The theoretical results are illustrated using a Framingham Heart Study example of a model for predicting the 10-year incidence of atrial fibrillation.
doi:10.1007/s10985-012-9238-0
PMCID: PMC3656609  PMID: 23242535
risk prediction; discrimination; AUC; IDI; Youden index; relative utility
11.  Cardiovascular Risk Estimation in 2012: Lessons Learned and Applicability to the HIV Population 
The Journal of Infectious Diseases  2012;205(Suppl 3):S362-S367.
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment tools such as the Framingham Risk Functions, often called Framingham Risk Scores, are common in the evaluation of the CVD risk among individuals in the general population. These functions are multivariate risk algorithms that combine data on CVD risk factors, such as sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, smoking behavior, and diabetes status, to produce an estimate (or risk) of developing CVD or a component of it (such as coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure) over a fixed period (eg, the next 10 years). These estimates of CVD risk are often major inputs in recommending drug treatments, such as agents to reduce cholesterol level. The Framingham Risk Functions are valid in diverse populations, at times requiring a calibration adjustment for proper applicability. With the realization that individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection often have elevated CVD risk factors, the evaluation of CVD risk for these individuals becomes a serious concern. Researchers have recently developed new CVD risk functions specifically for HIV-infected patients and have also examined the extension of existing Framingham Risk Functions to the HIV-infected population. This article first reviews briefly the Framingham Study and risk functions, covering their objectives, their components, evaluation of their performance, and transportability and validity on non-Framingham populations. It then reviews the development of CVD risk functions for HIV-infected individuals and comments on the usefulness of extending the Framingham risk equation to the HIV-infected population and the need to develop more-specific risk prediction equations uniquely tailored to this population.
doi:10.1093/infdis/jis196
PMCID: PMC3349294  PMID: 22577209
12.  Variation in Susceptibility of Human Malignant Melanomas to Oncolytic Vesicular Stomatitis Virus 
Surgery  2012;153(3):333-343.
Background
Vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) is a novel, anti-cancer therapy that selectively targets cancer cells with defective antiviral responses; however, not all malignant cells are sensitive to the oncolytic effects of VSV. Herein, we explore the mechanistic determinants of mutant M protein VSV (M51R-VSV) susceptibility in malignant melanoma cells.
Methods
Cell viability after VSV infection was measured by the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-5-(3-carboxymethoxyphenyl)-2-(4-sulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium (MTS) viability assay in a panel of melanoma cell lines. VSV infectability, viral protein synthesis and viral progeny production were quantified by flow cytometry, 35S-methionine electrophoresis, and viral plaque assays, respectively. Interferon (IFN) responsiveness was determined using MTS assay after β-IFN pre-treatment. Xenografts were established in athymic nude mice and treated with intratumoral M51R-VSV.
Results
Cell viability after M51R-VSV infection at a multiplicity of infection (MOI) of 10 pfu/mL, 48 hours post-infection) ranged between 0±1 and 59±9% (mean ± standard deviation). Sensitive cell lines supported VSV infection, viral protein synthesis, and viral progeny production. In addition, when pre-treated with β-IFN, sensitive cells became resistant to M51R-VSV, suggesting that IFN-mediated antiviral signaling is defective in these cells. In contrast, resistant melanoma cells do not support VSV infection, viral protein synthesis, or viral replication, indicating that anti-viral defenses remain intact. In a murine xenograft model, intratumoral M51R-VSV treatment decreased tumor growth relative to controls after 26 days in SK-Mel 5 (−21±19% vs. 2100±770%, p<0.0001) and SK-Mel 3 (2000±810% vs 7000±3000%, p=0.008) established tumors.
Conclusions
M51R-VSV is a viable, anti-cancer therapy, but susceptibility varies among melanomas. Future work will exploit specific mechanisms of resistance to expand the therapeutic efficacy of M51R-VSV.
doi:10.1016/j.surg.2012.09.003
PMCID: PMC3561511  PMID: 23102637
13.  Cardiovascular Disease Risk Assessment: Insights from Framingham 
Global heart  2013;8(1):11-23.
SUMMARY
Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is among the leading causes of death and disability worldwide. Since its beginning, the Framingham study has been a leader in identifying CVD risk factors. Clinical trials have demonstrated that when the modifiable risk factors are treated and corrected, the chances of CVD occurring can be reduced. The Framingham study also recognized that CVD risk factors are multifactorial and interact over time to produce CVD. In response, Framingham investigators developed the Framingham Risk Functions (also called Framingham Risk Scores) to evaluate the chance or likelihood of developing CVD in individuals. These functions are multivariate functions (algorithms) that combine the information in CVD risk factors such as sex, age, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking behavior, and diabetes status to produce an estimate (or risk) of developing CVD or a component of CVD (such as coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral vascular disease, or heart failure) over a fixed time, for example, the next 10 years. These estimates of CVD risk are often major inputs in recommending drug treatments such as cholesterol-lowering drugs.
doi:10.1016/j.gheart.2013.01.001
PMCID: PMC3673738  PMID: 23750335
14.  Temporal Trends in Self-reported Functional Limitations and Physical Disability Among Community-dwelling Elders: The Framingham Heart Study 
American journal of public health  2008;98(7):1256-1262.
Objective
To determine change in the prevalence of functional limitations and physical disability in community-dwelling elders across three decades.
Methods
We studied original participants of the Framingham Study, aged 79 to 88 years, at exam 15 (1977–1979, 177 women, 103 men), exam 20 (1988–1990, 159 women, 98 men) and exam 25 (1997 to 1999, 174 women, 119 men). Self-reported 1) functional limitation defined using the Nagi scale and 2) physical disability defined using the Rosow-Breslau and Katz scales.
Results
Functional limitations declined across examinations from 74.6% to 60.5% to 37.9% (p< 0.001) in women and 54.2%, 37.8%, and 27.8% (p<0.001) in men. Physical disability declined from 74.5% to 48.5% to 34.6% (p< 0.001) in women and 42.3% to 33.3% to 22.8% (p=0.009) in men. Women had a greater decline in disability than men (p=0.03). In women, improvements in functional limitations (p=0.05) were greater from exam 20 to 25 whereas for physical disability (p=0.02) improvements were greater from exam 15 to 20. Improvements in function were constant across the three examinations in men.
Conclusions
Among community-dwelling elders the prevalence of functional limitations and physical disability declined significantly from the 1970s to the 1990s.
doi:10.2105/AJPH.2007.128132
PMCID: PMC2424084  PMID: 18511716
functional limitations; physical disability; trends; elders
15.  Feasibility of Using a Community-Supported Agriculture Program to Improve Fruit and Vegetable Inventories and Consumption in an Underresourced Urban Community 
Introduction
Direct-to-consumer marketing efforts, such as community-supported agriculture (CSA), have been proposed as a solution for disparities in fruit and vegetable consumption. Evaluations of such efforts have been limited. The objective of this study was to test the feasibility of a CSA intervention to increase household inventory of fruits and vegetables and fruit and vegetable consumption of residents of an underresourced community.
Methods
For this randomized, controlled feasibility study, we recruited 50 low-income women with children. Intervention (n = 25) participants were offered 5 educational sessions and a box of fresh produce for 16 weeks; control participants were not offered the sessions nor were they included in the produce delivery. We collected data on participants’ home inventory of fruits and vegetables and on their consumption of fruits and vegetables at baseline (May 2012) and postintervention (August and September 2012).
Results
Of 55 potential participants, 50 were enrolled and 44 were reached for follow-up. We observed a significant increase in the number of foods in the household inventory of fruits and vegetables in the intervention group compared with the control group. The intervention group reported greater increases in fruit and vegetable consumption; however, these did not reach significance. Intervention participants picked up produce 9.2 (standard deviation = 4.58) of 16 weeks; challenges included transportation and work schedules. Most participants (20 of 21) expressed interest in continued participation; all stated a willingness to pay $10 per week, and some were willing to pay as much as $25 per week.
Conclusion
CSA is a feasible approach for providing fresh fruits and vegetables to an underresourced community. Future studies should evaluate the impact of such a program in a larger sample and should take additional steps to facilitate participation.
doi:10.5888/pcd10.130053
PMCID: PMC3748277  PMID: 23948337
17.  Reduced Heart Rate Variability Among Youth With Type 1 Diabetes 
Diabetes Care  2012;36(1):157-162.
OBJECTIVE
This study compared heart rate variability (HRV) parameters in youth with and without type 1 diabetes and explored potential contributors of altered HRV.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
HRV parameters were measured among 354 youth with type 1 diabetes (mean age 18.8 years, diabetes duration 9.8 years, and mean A1C 8.9%) and 176 youth without diabetes (mean age 19.2 years) participating in the SEARCH CVD study. Multiple linear regression was used to assess the relationship between diabetes status and HRV parameters, adjusting for covariates.
RESULTS
Compared with control subjects, youth with type 1 diabetes had reduced overall HRV (10.09 ms lower SD of NN intervals [SDNN]) and markers of parasympathetic loss (13.5 ms reduced root mean square successive difference of NN intervals [RMSSD] and 5.2 normalized units (n.u.) reduced high frequency [HF] power) with sympathetic override (5.2 n.u. increased low frequency [LF] power), independent of demographic, anthropometric, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. Older age, female sex, higher LDL cholesterol and triglyceride levels, and presence of microalbuminuria were independently associated with lower HRV but did not account for the observed differences between youth with and without diabetes. Youth with type 1 diabetes and A1C levels ≥7.5% had significantly worse HRV parameters than control subjects; however, in youth with optimal glycemic control (A1C <7.5%), HRV parameters did not differ significantly from control subjects.
CONCLUSIONS
Youth with type 1 diabetes have signs of early cardiac autonomic neuropathy: reduced overall HRV and parasympathetic loss with sympathetic override. The main driver of these subclinical abnormalities appears to be hyperglycemia.
doi:10.2337/dc12-0463
PMCID: PMC3526238  PMID: 22961570
18.  Assessing Risk Prediction Models Using Individual Participant Data From Multiple Studies 
Pennells, Lisa | Kaptoge, Stephen | White, Ian R. | Thompson, Simon G. | Wood, Angela M. | Tipping, Robert W. | Folsom, Aaron R. | Couper, David J. | Ballantyne, Christie M. | Coresh, Josef | Goya Wannamethee, S. | Morris, Richard W. | Kiechl, Stefan | Willeit, Johann | Willeit, Peter | Schett, Georg | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A. | Yarnell, John W. | Gallacher, John | Cushman, Mary | Psaty, Bruce M. | Tracy, Russ | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Price, Jackie F. | Lee, Amanda J. | McLachlan, Stela | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J. | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Wennberg, Patrik | Salomaa, Veikko | Harald, Kennet | Jousilahti, Pekka | Vartiainen, Erkki | Woodward, Mark | D'Agostino, Ralph B. | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Dekker, Jacqueline M. | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen D. A. | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T. | Meade, Tom W. | Cooper, Jackie A. | Cushman, Mary | Folsom, Aaron R. | Psaty, Bruce M. | Shea, Steven | Döring, Angela | Kuller, Lewis H. | Grandits, Greg | Gillum, Richard F. | Mussolino, Michael | Rimm, Eric B. | Hankinson, Sue E. | Manson, JoAnn E. | Pai, Jennifer K. | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A. | Shimbo, Daichi | Bakker, Stephan J. L. | Gansevoort, Ron T. | Hillege, Hans L. | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Evans, Alun | Ferrières, Jean | Sattar, Naveed | Westendorp, Rudi G. | Buckley, Brendan M. | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Wingard, Deborah L. | Bettencourt, Richele | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Kavousi, Maryam | Witteman, Jacqueline C. | Hofman, Albert | Franco, Oscar H. | Howard, Barbara V. | Zhang, Ying | Best, Lyle | Umans, Jason G. | Onat, Altan | Sundström, Johan | Michael Gaziano, J. | Stampfer, Meir | Ridker, Paul M. | Michael Gaziano, J. | Ridker, Paul M. | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Collins, Rory | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimäki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M. | Buring, Julie | Cook, Nancy | Ford, Ian | Shepherd, James | Cobbe, Stuart M. | Robertson, Michele | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S. | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Gao, Pei | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Pennells, Lisa | Thompson, Simon G. | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R. | Wood, Angela M. | Wormser, David | Danesh, John
American Journal of Epidemiology  2013;179(5):621-632.
Individual participant time-to-event data from multiple prospective epidemiologic studies enable detailed investigation into the predictive ability of risk models. Here we address the challenges in appropriately combining such information across studies. Methods are exemplified by analyses of log C-reactive protein and conventional risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, a collation of individual data from multiple prospective studies with an average follow-up duration of 9.8 years (dates varied). We derive risk prediction models using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis stratified by study and obtain estimates of risk discrimination, Harrell's concordance index, and Royston's discrimination measure within each study; we then combine the estimates across studies using a weighted meta-analysis. Various weighting approaches are compared and lead us to recommend using the number of events in each study. We also discuss the calculation of measures of reclassification for multiple studies. We further show that comparison of differences in predictive ability across subgroups should be based only on within-study information and that combining measures of risk discrimination from case-control studies and prospective studies is problematic. The concordance index and discrimination measure gave qualitatively similar results throughout. While the concordance index was very heterogeneous between studies, principally because of differing age ranges, the increments in the concordance index from adding log C-reactive protein to conventional risk factors were more homogeneous.
doi:10.1093/aje/kwt298
PMCID: PMC3927974  PMID: 24366051
C index; coronary heart disease; D measure; individual participant data; inverse variance; meta-analysis; risk prediction; weighting
19.  Comparison of Two Waist Circumference Measurement Protocols: The SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study 
Pediatric obesity  2012;7(6):e81-e85.
We compared two protocols for measuring waist circumference (WC) in a sample of youth with diabetes.
Participants were enrolled in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth Study (SEARCH). WC was measured at least twice by the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) protocol and twice by the World Health Organization (WHO) protocol. Method-specific averages were used in these analyses.
Among 6248 participants, the mean NHANES WC (76.3 cm) was greater than the mean WHO WC (71.9 cm). Discrepancies between protocols were greater for females than males, among older participants, and in those with higher body mass index (BMI). In both sexes and four age strata, the WCs using either method were highly correlated with BMI z-score. The within-method differences between the first and second measurements were similar for the two methods.
These analyses do not provide evidence that one of these two methods is more reproducible or is a better indicator of obesity as defined by BMI z-scores.
doi:10.1111/j.2047-6310.2012.00088.x
PMCID: PMC3494800  PMID: 22991230
waist circumference measurement; method comparison; diabetes in youth
20.  Potential Impact of Adding Genetic Markers to Clinical Parameters in Predicting Prostate Biopsy Outcomes in Men Following an Initial Negative Biopsy: Findings from the REDUCE Trial 
European urology  2012;62(6):953-961.
Background
Several germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been consistently associated with prostate cancer (PCa) risk.
Objective
To determine whether there is an improvement in PCa risk prediction by adding these SNPs to existing predictors of PCa.
Design, setting, and participants
Subjects included men in the placebo arm of the randomized Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE) trial in whom germline DNA was available. All men had an initial negative prostate biopsy and underwent study-mandated biopsies at 2 yr and 4 yr. Predictive performance of baseline clinical parameters and/or a genetic score based on 33 established PCa risk-associated SNPs was evaluated.
Outcome measurements and statistical analysis
Area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were used to compare different models with different predictors. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess changes in risk prediction by adding genetic markers.
Results and limitations
Among 1654 men, genetic score was a significant predictor of positive biopsy, even after adjusting for known clinical variables and family history (p = 3.41 × 10−8). The AUC for the genetic score exceeded that of any other PCa predictor at 0.59. Adding the genetic score to the best clinical model improved the AUC from 0.62 to 0.66 (p < 0.001), reclassified PCa risk in 33% of men (NRI: 0.10; p = 0.002), resulted in higher net benefit from DCA, and decreased the number of biopsies needed to detect the same number of PCa instances. The benefit of adding the genetic score was greatest among men at intermediate risk (25th percentile to 75th percentile). Similar results were found for high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa. A major limitation of this study was its focus on white patients only.
Conclusions
Adding genetic markers to current clinical parameters may improve PCa risk prediction. The improvement is modest but may be helpful for better determining the need for repeat prostate biopsy. The clinical impact of these results requires further study.
doi:10.1016/j.eururo.2012.05.006
PMCID: PMC3568765  PMID: 22652152
Prostate cancer; Genetics; AUC; Detection rate; Reclassification; SNPs; Prospective study; Clinical trial
21.  Association of smoking cessation and weight change with cardiovascular disease among people with and without diabetes 
Importance
Smoking cessation reduces the risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but weight gain that follows quitting smoking may weaken the CVD benefit of quitting.
Objective
To test the hypothesis that weight gain following smoking cessation does not attenuate the benefits of smoking cessation among people with and without diabetes.
Design, Setting, and Participants
Prospective community-based cohort study using data from the Framingham Offspring Study collected from 1984 to 2011. At each 4-year exam, self-reported smoking status was assessed and categorized as smoker, recent quitter (≤ 4 years), long-term quitter (> 4 years), and non-smoker. Pooled Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the association between quitting smoking and 6-year CVD events and to test whether 4-year change in weight following smoking cessation modified the association between smoking cessation and CVD events.
Main outcome measure
Incidence over 6 years of total CVD events, comprising coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular events, peripheral artery disease, and congestive heart failure.
Results
After a mean follow-up of 25 years (SD, 9.6), 631 CVD events occurred among 3251 participants. Median 4-year weight gain was greater for recent quitters without diabetes (2.7 kg, Interquartile range [IQR] −0.5-6.4) and with diabetes (3.6 kg, IQR −1.4-8.2) than for long term quitters (0.9 kg, IQR −1.4-3.2 and 0.0 kg, IQR −3.2-3.2, respectively, p<0.001). Among people without diabetes, age and sex-adjusted incidence rate of CVD was 5.9/ 100 person-exams (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.9-7.1) in smokers, 3.2/ 100 person-exams (95% CI 2.1-4.5) in recent quitters, 3.1 /100 person-exams (95% CI 2.6-3.7) in long-term quitters, and 2.4 /100 person-exams (95% CI 2.0-3.0) in non-smokers. After adjustment for CVD risk factors, compared with smokers, recent quitters had a hazard ratio (HR) for CVD of 0.47 (95% CI, 0.23-0.94) and long-term quitters had an HR of 0.46 (95% CI, 0.34-0.63); these associations had only a minimal change after further adjustment for weight change. Among people with diabetes, there were similar point estimates that did not reach statistical significance.
Conclusions and Relevance
In this community based cohort, smoking cessation was associated with a lower risk of CVD events among participants without diabetes, and weight gain that occurred following smoking cessation did not modify this association. This supports a net cardiovascular benefit of smoking cessation despite subsequent weight gain.
doi:10.1001/jama.2013.1644
PMCID: PMC3791107  PMID: 23483176
23.  Cross-sectional association of dietary patterns with insulin resistance phenotypes among adults without diabetes in the Framingham Offspring Study 
The British journal of nutrition  2009;102(4):576-583.
Cluster analysis is a valuable tool for exploring the health consequences of consuming different dietary patterns. We used this approach to examine the cross-sectional relationship between dietary patterns and insulin resistance phenotypes, including waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), fasting insulin, 2-h post-challenge insulin, insulin sensitivity index (ISI0,120), HDL cholesterol, triacylglycerol and blood pressure, using data from the fifth examination cycle of the Framingham Offspring Study. Among 2,875 participants without diabetes, we identified four dietary patterns based on the predominant sources of energy: “Fruits, Reduced Fat Dairy and Whole Grains”, “Refined Grains and Sweets”, “Beer”, and “Soda”. After adjusting for multiple comparisons and potential confounders, compared with the “Fruits, Reduced Fat Dairy and Whole Grains” pattern, the “Refined Grains and Sweets” pattern had significantly higher mean waist circumference (92.4 versus 90.5 cm, P=0.008) and BMI (27.3 versus 26.6 kg/m2, P=0.02); the “Soda” pattern had significantly higher mean fasting insulin concentration (31.3 versus 28.0 μU/ml, P≤0.001); the “Beer” pattern had significantly higher mean HDL cholesterol concentration (1.46 versus 1.31 mmol/l, P<0.001). No associations were observed between dietary patterns and ISI0,120, triacylglycerol, and systolic or diastolic blood pressure. Our findings suggest that consumption of a diet rich in fruits, vegetables, whole grains and reduced fat dairy protects against insulin resistance phenotypes and displacing these healthy choices with refined grains, high fat dairy, sweet baked foods, candy and sugar sweetened soda promotes insulin resistant phenotypes.
doi:10.1017/S0007114509220836
PMCID: PMC3785063  PMID: 19216828
Dietary patterns; cluster analysis; insulin resistance phenotypes; Framingham Offspring Study
24.  Evaluation of Data Entry Errors and Data Changes to an Electronic Data Capture Clinical Trial Database 
Drug information journal  2011;45(4):421-430.
Monitoring of clinical trials includes several disciplines, stakeholders, and skill sets. The aim of the present study was to identify database changes and data entry errors to an electronic data capture (EDC) clinical trial database, and to access the impact of the changes. To accomblish the aim, Target e*CRF was used as the EDC tool for a multinational, dose-finding, multicenter, double-blind, randomized, parallel, placebo-controlled trial to investigate efficacy and safety of a new treatment in men with lower urinary tract symptoms associated with benign prostatic hyperplasia. The main errors observed were simple transcription errors from the paper source documents to the EDC database. This observation was to be expected, since every transaction has an inherant error rate. What and how to monitor must be assessed within the risk-based monitoring section of the comprehensive data monitoring plan. With the advent of direct data entry, and the elimination of the requirement to transcribe from a paper source record to an EDC system, error rates should go down dramatically. In addition, protocol violations and data outside the normal range can be identified at the time of data entry and not days, weeks, and months after the fact.
doi:10.1177/009286151104500404
PMCID: PMC3777611  PMID: 24058221
EDC; Data management; Risk-based monitoring
25.  Interpreting Incremental Value of Markers Added to Risk Prediction Models 
American Journal of Epidemiology  2012;176(6):473-481.
The discrimination of a risk prediction model measures that model's ability to distinguish between subjects with and without events. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) is a popular measure of discrimination. However, the AUC has recently been criticized for its insensitivity in model comparisons in which the baseline model has performed well. Thus, 2 other measures have been proposed to capture improvement in discrimination for nested models: the integrated discrimination improvement and the continuous net reclassification improvement. In the present study, the authors use mathematical relations and numerical simulations to quantify the improvement in discrimination offered by candidate markers of different strengths as measured by their effect sizes. They demonstrate that the increase in the AUC depends on the strength of the baseline model, which is true to a lesser degree for the integrated discrimination improvement. On the other hand, the continuous net reclassification improvement depends only on the effect size of the candidate variable and its correlation with other predictors. These measures are illustrated using the Framingham model for incident atrial fibrillation. The authors conclude that the increase in the AUC, integrated discrimination improvement, and net reclassification improvement offer complementary information and thus recommend reporting all 3 alongside measures characterizing the performance of the final model.
doi:10.1093/aje/kws207
PMCID: PMC3530349  PMID: 22875755
area under curve; biomarkers; discrimination; risk assessment; risk factors

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