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1.  Implications of within-farm transmission for network dynamics: Consequences for the spread of avian influenza 
Epidemics  2013;5(2):67-76.
Highlights
•Cross-scale dynamics were investigated for avian influenza in British poultry.•Transmission risk is dependent on the assumed within-flock transmission mode.•Transmission risk may not scale with transmissibility or flock size.•Transmission risk corresponds with between-farm impact for 28% of farms.•These results have implications for targeted disease control at the farm-level.
The importance of considering coupled interactions across multiple population scales has not previously been studied for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the British commercial poultry industry. By simulating the within-flock transmission of HPAI using a deterministic S-E-I-R model, and by incorporating an additional environmental class representing infectious faeces, we tracked the build-up of infectious faeces within a poultry house over time. A measure of the transmission risk (TR) was computed for each farm by linking the amount of infectious faeces present each day of an outbreak with data describing the daily on-farm visit schedules for a major British catching company. Larger flocks tended to have greater levels of these catching-team visits. However, where density-dependent contact was assumed, faster outbreak detection (according to an assumed mortality threshold) led to a decreased opportunity for catching-team visits to coincide with an outbreak. For this reason, maximum TR-levels were found for mid-range flock sizes (~25,000–35,000 birds). When assessing all factors simultaneously using multivariable linear regression on the simulated outputs, those related to the pattern of catching-team visits had the largest effect on TR, with the most important movement-related factor depending on the mode of transmission. Using social network analysis on a further database to inform a measure of between-farm connectivity, we identified a large fraction of farms (28%) that had both a high TR and a high potential impact at the between farm level. Our results have counter-intuitive implications for between-farm spread that could not be predicted based on flock size alone, and together with further knowledge of the relative importance of transmission risk and impact, could have implications for improved targeting of control measures.
doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2013.03.001
PMCID: PMC3694308  PMID: 23746799
Mathematical modelling; Social network data; Poultry
2.  An S-System Parameter Estimation Method (SPEM) for Biological Networks 
Journal of Computational Biology  2012;19(2):175-187.
Abstract
Advances in experimental biology, coupled with advances in computational power, bring new challenges to the interdisciplinary field of computational biology. One such broad challenge lies in the reverse engineering of gene networks, and goes from determining the structure of static networks, to reconstructing the dynamics of interactions from time series data. Here, we focus our attention on the latter area, and in particular, on parameterizing a dynamic network of oriented interactions between genes. By basing the parameterizing approach on a known power-law relationship model between connected genes (S-system), we are able to account for non-linearity in the network, without compromising the ability to analyze network characteristics. In this article, we introduce the S-System Parameter Estimation Method (SPEM). SPEM, a freely available R software package (http://www.picb.ac.cn/ClinicalGenomicNTW/temp3.html), takes gene expression data in time series and returns the network of interactions as a set of differential equations. The methods, which are presented and tested here, are shown to provide accurate results not only on synthetic data, but more importantly on real and therefore noisy by nature, biological data. In summary, SPEM shows high sensitivity and positive predicted values, as well as free availability and expansibility (because based on open source software). We expect these characteristics to make it a useful and broadly applicable software in the challenging reconstruction of dynamic gene networks.
doi:10.1089/cmb.2011.0269
PMCID: PMC3272242  PMID: 22300319
algorithms; biochemical networks; computational molecular biology; gene networks; graphs and networks; statistics
3.  From desk to bed: Computational simulations provide indication for rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials 
BMC Systems Biology  2013;7:10.
Background
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is among the most common human systemic autoimmune diseases, affecting approximately 1% of the population worldwide. To date, there is no cure for the disease and current treatments show undesirable side effects. As the disease affects a growing number of individuals, and during their working age, the gathering of all information able to improve therapies -by understanding their and the disease mechanisms of action- represents an important area of research, benefiting not only patients but also societies. In this direction, network analysis methods have been used in previous work to further our understanding of this complex disease, leading to the identification of CRKL as a potential drug target for treatment of RA. Here, we use computational methods to expand on this work, testing the hypothesis in silico.
Results
Analysis of the CRKL network -available at http://www.picb.ac.cn/ClinicalGenomicNTW/software.html- allows for investigation of the potential effect of perturbing genes of interest. Within the group of genes that are significantly affected by simulated perturbation of CRKL, we are lead to further investigate the importance of PXN. Our results allow us to (1) refine the hypothesis on CRKL as a novel drug target (2) indicate potential causes of side effects in on-going trials and (3) importantly, provide recommendations with impact on on-going clinical studies.
Conclusions
Based on a virtual network that collects and connects a large number of the molecules known to be involved in a disease, one can simulate the effects of controlling molecules, allowing for the observation of how this affects the rest of the network. This is important to mimic the effect of a drug, but also to be aware of -and possibly control- its side effects. Using this approach in RA research we have been able to contribute to the field by suggesting molecules to be targeted in new therapies and more importantly, to warrant efficacy, to hypothesise novel recommendations on existing drugs currently under test.
doi:10.1186/1752-0509-7-10
PMCID: PMC3653749  PMID: 23339423
Rheumatoid arthritis; Tyrosine kynase; Simulation modelling; BioLayout express
4.  The potential spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus via dynamic contacts between poultry premises in Great Britain 
Background
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have had devastating effects on poultry industries worldwide, and there is concern about the potential for HPAI outbreaks in the poultry industry in Great Britain (GB). Critical to the potential for HPAI to spread between poultry premises are the connections made between farms by movements related to human activity. Movement records of catching teams and slaughterhouse vehicles were obtained from a large catching company, and these data were used in a simulation model of HPAI spread between farms serviced by the catching company, and surrounding (geographic) areas. The spread of HPAI through real-time movements was modelled, with the addition of spread via company personnel and local transmission.
Results
The model predicted that although large outbreaks are rare, they may occur, with long distances between infected premises. Final outbreak size was most sensitive to the probability of spread via slaughterhouse-linked movements whereas the probability of onward spread beyond an index premises was most sensitive to the frequency of company personnel movements.
Conclusions
Results obtained from this study show that, whilst there is the possibility that HPAI virus will jump from one cluster of farms to another, movements made by catching teams connected fewer poultry premises in an outbreak situation than slaughterhouses and company personnel. The potential connection of a large number of infected farms, however, highlights the importance of retaining up-to-date data on poultry premises so that control measures can be effectively prioritised in an outbreak situation.
doi:10.1186/1746-6148-7-59
PMCID: PMC3224601  PMID: 21995783
5.  Correction: A Comprehensive Molecular Interaction Map for Rheumatoid Arthritis 
PLoS ONE  2010;5(4):10.1371/annotation/f67a90fb-3e4e-4484-bffe-fcfafbfe88c7.
doi:10.1371/annotation/f67a90fb-3e4e-4484-bffe-fcfafbfe88c7
PMCID: PMC2862747
6.  A Comprehensive Molecular Interaction Map for Rheumatoid Arthritis 
PLoS ONE  2010;5(4):e10137.
Background
Computational biology contributes to a variety of areas related to life sciences and, due to the growing impact of translational medicine - the scientific approach to medicine in tight relation with basic science -, it is becoming an important player in clinical-related areas. In this study, we use computation methods in order to improve our understanding of the complex interactions that occur between molecules related to Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA).
Methodology
Due to the complexity of the disease and the numerous molecular players involved, we devised a method to construct a systemic network of interactions of the processes ongoing in patients affected by RA. The network is based on high-throughput data, refined semi-automatically with carefully curated literature-based information. This global network has then been topologically analysed, as a whole and tissue-specifically, in order to translate the experimental molecular connections into topological motifs meaningful in the identification of tissue-specific markers and targets in the diagnosis, and possibly in the therapy, of RA.
Significance
We find that some nodes in the network that prove to be topologically important, in particular AKT2, IL6, MAPK1 and TP53, are also known to be associated with drugs used for the treatment of RA. Importantly, based on topological consideration, we are also able to suggest CRKL as a novel potentially relevant molecule for the diagnosis or treatment of RA. This type of finding proves the potential of in silico analyses able to produce highly refined hypotheses, based on vast experimental data, to be tested further and more efficiently. As research on RA is ongoing, the present map is in fieri, despite being -at the moment- a reflection of the state of the art. For this reason we make the network freely available in the standardised and easily exportable .xml CellDesigner format at ‘www.picb.ac.cn/ClinicalGenomicNTW/temp.html’ and ‘www.celldesigner.org’.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010137
PMCID: PMC2855702  PMID: 20419126
7.  Contact structures in the poultry industry in Great Britain: Exploring transmission routes for a potential avian influenza virus epidemic 
Background
The commercial poultry industry in United Kingdom (UK) is worth an estimated £3.4 billion at retail value, producing over 174 million birds for consumption per year. An epidemic of any poultry disease with high mortality or which is zoonotic, such as avian influenza virus (AIV), would result in the culling of significant numbers of birds, as seen in the Netherlands in 2003 and Italy in 2000. Such an epidemic would cost the UK government millions of pounds in compensation costs, with further economic losses through reduction of international and UK consumption of British poultry. In order to better inform policy advisers and makers on the potential for a large epidemic in GB, we investigate the role that interactions amongst premises within the British commercial poultry industry could play in promoting an AIV epidemic, given an introduction of the virus in a specific part of poultry industry in Great Britain (GB).
Results
Poultry premises using multiple slaughterhouses lead to a large number of premises being potentially connected, with the resultant potential for large and sometimes widespread epidemics. Catching companies can also potentially link a large proportion of the poultry population. Critical to this is the maximum distance traveled by catching companies between premises and whether or not between-species transmission could occur within individual premises. Premises closely linked by proximity may result in connections being formed between different species and or sectors within the industry.
Conclusion
Even quite well-contained epidemics have the potential for geographically widespread dissemination, potentially resulting in severe logistical problems for epidemic control, and with economic impact on a large part of the country. Premises sending birds to multiple slaughterhouses or housing multiple species may act as a bridge between otherwise separate sectors of the industry, resulting in the potential for large epidemics. Investment into further data collection and analyses on the importance of industry structure as a determinant for spread of AIV would enable us to use the results from this study to contribute to policy on disease control.
doi:10.1186/1746-6148-4-27
PMCID: PMC2526082  PMID: 18651959

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