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1.  Estimation and partitioning of polygenic variation captured by common SNPs for Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis and endometriosis 
Human Molecular Genetics  2012;22(4):832-841.
Common diseases such as endometriosis (ED), Alzheimer's disease (AD) and multiple sclerosis (MS) account for a significant proportion of the health care burden in many countries. Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for these diseases have identified a number of individual genetic variants contributing to the risk of those diseases. However, the effect size for most variants is small and collectively the known variants explain only a small proportion of the estimated heritability. We used a linear mixed model to fit all single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) simultaneously, and estimated genetic variances on the liability scale using SNPs from GWASs in unrelated individuals for these three diseases. For each of the three diseases, case and control samples were not all genotyped in the same laboratory. We demonstrate that a careful analysis can obtain robust estimates, but also that insufficient quality control (QC) of SNPs can lead to spurious results and that too stringent QC is likely to remove real genetic signals. Our estimates show that common SNPs on commercially available genotyping chips capture significant variation contributing to liability for all three diseases. The estimated proportion of total variation tagged by all SNPs was 0.26 (SE 0.04) for ED, 0.24 (SE 0.03) for AD and 0.30 (SE 0.03) for MS. Further, we partitioned the genetic variance explained into five categories by a minor allele frequency (MAF), by chromosomes and gene annotation. We provide strong evidence that a substantial proportion of variation in liability is explained by common SNPs, and thereby give insights into the genetic architecture of the diseases.
doi:10.1093/hmg/dds491
PMCID: PMC3554206  PMID: 23193196
2.  GWAS of butyrylcholinesterase activity identifies four novel loci, independent effects within BCHE and secondary associations with metabolic risk factors 
Human Molecular Genetics  2011;20(22):4504-4514.
Serum butyrylcholinesterase (BCHE) activity is associated with obesity, blood pressure and biomarkers of cardiovascular and diabetes risk. We have conducted a genome-wide association scan to discover genetic variants affecting BCHE activity, and to clarify whether the associations between BCHE activity and cardiometabolic risk factors are caused by variation in BCHE or whether BCHE variation is secondary to the metabolic abnormalities. We measured serum BCHE in adolescents and adults from three cohorts of Australian twin and family studies. The genotypes from ∼2.4 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were available in 8791 participants with BCHE measurements. We detected significant associations with BCHE activity at three independent groups of SNPs at the BCHE locus (P = 5.8 × 10−262, 7.8 × 10−47, 2.9 × 10−12) and at four other loci: RNPEP (P = 9.4 × 10−16), RAPH1-ABI2 (P = 4.1 × 10−18), UGT1A1 (P = 4.0 × 10−8) and an intergenic region on chromosome 8 (P = 1.4 × 10−8). These loci affecting BCHE activity were not associated with metabolic risk factors. On the other hand, SNPs in genes previously associated with metabolic risk had effects on BCHE activity more often than can be explained by chance. In particular, SNPs within FTO and GCKR were associated with BCHE activity, but their effects were partly mediated by body mass index and triglycerides, respectively. We conclude that variation in BCHE activity is due to multiple variants across the spectrum from uncommon/large effect to common/small effect, and partly results from (rather than causes) metabolic abnormalities.
doi:10.1093/hmg/ddr375
PMCID: PMC3196893  PMID: 21862451
4.  Estimating the proportion of variation in susceptibility to schizophrenia captured by common SNPs 
Nature Genetics  2012;44(3):247-250.
Schizophrenia is a complex disorder caused by both genetic and environmental factors. Using 9,087 cases, 12,171 controls and 915,354 imputed SNPs from the Psychiatric GWA Consortium for schizophrenia (PGC-SCZ) we estimate that 23% (s.e. 1%) of variation in liability to schizophrenia is captured by SNPs. We show that an important proportion of this variation must be due to common causal variants, that the variance explained by each chromosome is linearly related to its length (r = 0.89, p = 2.6 × 10−8), that the genetic basis of schizophrenia is the same in males and females, and that a disproportionate proportion of variation is attributable to a set of 2725 genes expressed in the central nervous system (CNS) (p = 7.6 ×10−8). These results are consistent with a polygenic genetic architecture and imply more individual SNP associations will be detected for this disease as sample size increases.
doi:10.1038/ng.1108
PMCID: PMC3327879  PMID: 22344220
heritability; missing heritability; genomic variance; SNPs; GWAS
5.  Association between ORMDL3, IL1RL1 and a deletion on chromosome 17q21 with asthma risk in Australia 
Genome-wide association studies followed by replication provide a powerful approach to map genetic risk factors for asthma. We sought to search for new variants associated with asthma and attempt to replicate the association with four loci reported previously (ORMDL3, PDE4D, DENND1B and IL1RL1). Genome-wide association analyses of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rare copy number variants (CNVs) and overall CNV burden were carried out in 986 asthma cases and 1846 asthma-free controls from Australia. The most-associated locus in the SNP analysis was ORMDL3 (rs6503525, P=4.8 × 10−7). Five other loci were associated with P<10−5, most notably the chemokine CXC motif ligand 14 (CXCL14) gene (rs31263, P=7.8 × 10−6). We found no evidence for association with the specific risk variants reported recently for PDE4D, DENND1B and ILR1L1. However, a variant in IL1RL1 that is in low linkage disequilibrium with that reported previously was associated with asthma risk after accounting for all variants tested (rs10197862, gene wide P=0.01). This association replicated convincingly in an independent cohort (P=2.4 × 10−4). A 300-kb deletion on chromosome 17q21 was associated with asthma risk, but this did not reach experiment-wide significance. Asthma cases and controls had comparable CNV rates, length and number of genes affected by deletions or duplications. In conclusion, we confirm the association between asthma risk and variants in ORMDL3 and identify a novel risk variant in IL1RL1. Follow-up of the 17q21 deletion in larger cohorts is warranted.
doi:10.1038/ejhg.2010.191
PMCID: PMC3060316  PMID: 21150878
whole-genome; gene; atopy; heterogeneity; structural; IKZF3
6.  Heritability and Genetic Correlations Explained by Common SNPs for Metabolic Syndrome Traits 
PLoS Genetics  2012;8(3):e1002637.
We used a bivariate (multivariate) linear mixed-effects model to estimate the narrow-sense heritability (h2) and heritability explained by the common SNPs (hg2) for several metabolic syndrome (MetS) traits and the genetic correlation between pairs of traits for the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) genome-wide association study (GWAS) population. MetS traits included body-mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting glucose (GLU), fasting insulin (INS), fasting trigylcerides (TG), and fasting high-density lipoprotein (HDL). We found the percentage of h2 accounted for by common SNPs to be 58% of h2 for height, 41% for BMI, 46% for WHR, 30% for GLU, 39% for INS, 34% for TG, 25% for HDL, and 80% for SBP. We confirmed prior reports for height and BMI using the ARIC population and independently in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) population. We demonstrated that the multivariate model supported large genetic correlations between BMI and WHR and between TG and HDL. We also showed that the genetic correlations between the MetS traits are directly proportional to the phenotypic correlations.
Author Summary
The narrow-sense heritability of a trait such as body-mass index is a measure of the variability of the trait between people that is accounted for by their additive genetic differences. Knowledge of these genetic differences provides insight into biological mechanisms and hence treatments for diseases. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) survey a large set of genetic markers common to the population. They have identified several single markers that are associated with traits and diseases. However, these markers do not seem to account for all of the known narrow-sense heritability. Here we used a recently developed model to quantify the genetic information contained in GWAS for single traits and shared between traits. We specifically investigated metabolic syndrome traits that are associated with type 2 diabetes and heart disease, and we found that for the majority of these traits much of the previously unaccounted for heritability is contained within common markers surveyed in GWAS. We also computed the genetic correlation between traits, which is a measure of the genetic components shared by traits. We found that the genetic correlation between these traits could be predicted from their phenotypic correlation.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1002637
PMCID: PMC3315484  PMID: 22479213
7.  Deleterious GRM1 Mutations in Schizophrenia 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(3):e32849.
We analysed a phenotypically well-characterised sample of 450 schziophrenia patients and 605 controls for rare non-synonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) in the GRM1 gene, their functional effects and family segregation. GRM1 encodes the metabotropic glutamate receptor 1 (mGluR1), whose documented role as a modulator of neuronal signalling and synaptic plasticity makes it a plausible schizophrenia candidate. In a recent study, this gene was shown to harbour a cluster of deleterious nsSNPs within a functionally important domain of the receptor, in patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Our Sanger sequencing of the GRM1 coding regions detected equal numbers of nsSNPs in cases and controls, however the two groups differed in terms of the potential effects of the variants on receptor function: 6/6 case-specific and only 1/6 control-specific nsSNPs were predicted to be deleterious. Our in-vitro experimental follow-up of the case-specific mutants showed that 4/6 led to significantly reduced inositol phosphate production, indicating impaired function of the major mGluR1signalling pathway; 1/6 had reduced cell membrane expression; inconclusive results were obtained in 1/6. Family segregation analysis indicated that these deleterious nsSNPs were inherited. Interestingly, four of the families were affected by multiple neuropsychiatric conditions, not limited to schizophrenia, and the mutations were detected in relatives with schizophrenia, depression and anxiety, drug and alcohol dependence, and epilepsy. Our findings suggest a possible mGluR1 contribution to diverse psychiatric conditions, supporting the modulatory role of the receptor in such conditions as proposed previously on the basis of in vitro experiments and animal studies.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0032849
PMCID: PMC3308973  PMID: 22448230
9.  Common SNPs explain a large proportion of heritability for human height 
Nature genetics  2010;42(7):565-569.
Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) discovered by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) account for only a small fraction of the genetic variation of complex traits in human populations. Where is the remaining heritability? We estimated the proportion of variance for human height explained by 294,831 SNPs genotyped on 3,925 unrelated individuals using a linear model analysis, and validated the estimation method by simulations based upon the observed genotype data. We show that 45% of variance can be explained by considering all SNPs simultaneously. Thus, most of the heritability is not missing but has not previously been detected because the individual effects are too small to pass stringent significance tests. We provide evidence that the remaining heritability is due to incomplete linkage disequilibrium (LD) between causal variants and genotyped SNPs, exacerbated by causal variants having lower minor allele frequency (MAF) than the SNPs explored to date.
doi:10.1038/ng.608
PMCID: PMC3232052  PMID: 20562875
10.  Large-Scale Gene-Centric Analysis Identifies Novel Variants for Coronary Artery Disease 
PLoS Genetics  2011;7(9):e1002260.
Coronary artery disease (CAD) has a significant genetic contribution that is incompletely characterized. To complement genome-wide association (GWA) studies, we conducted a large and systematic candidate gene study of CAD susceptibility, including analysis of many uncommon and functional variants. We examined 49,094 genetic variants in ∼2,100 genes of cardiovascular relevance, using a customised gene array in 15,596 CAD cases and 34,992 controls (11,202 cases and 30,733 controls of European descent; 4,394 cases and 4,259 controls of South Asian origin). We attempted to replicate putative novel associations in an additional 17,121 CAD cases and 40,473 controls. Potential mechanisms through which the novel variants could affect CAD risk were explored through association tests with vascular risk factors and gene expression. We confirmed associations of several previously known CAD susceptibility loci (eg, 9p21.3:p<10−33; LPA:p<10−19; 1p13.3:p<10−17) as well as three recently discovered loci (COL4A1/COL4A2, ZC3HC1, CYP17A1:p<5×10−7). However, we found essentially null results for most previously suggested CAD candidate genes. In our replication study of 24 promising common variants, we identified novel associations of variants in or near LIPA, IL5, TRIB1, and ABCG5/ABCG8, with per-allele odds ratios for CAD risk with each of the novel variants ranging from 1.06–1.09. Associations with variants at LIPA, TRIB1, and ABCG5/ABCG8 were supported by gene expression data or effects on lipid levels. Apart from the previously reported variants in LPA, none of the other ∼4,500 low frequency and functional variants showed a strong effect. Associations in South Asians did not differ appreciably from those in Europeans, except for 9p21.3 (per-allele odds ratio: 1.14 versus 1.27 respectively; P for heterogeneity = 0.003). This large-scale gene-centric analysis has identified several novel genes for CAD that relate to diverse biochemical and cellular functions and clarified the literature with regard to many previously suggested genes.
Author Summary
Coronary artery disease (CAD) has a strong genetic basis that remains poorly characterised. Using a custom-designed array, we tested the association with CAD of almost 50,000 common and low frequency variants in ∼2,000 genes of known or suspected cardiovascular relevance. We genotyped the array in 15,596 CAD cases and 34,992 controls (11,202 cases and 30,733 controls of European descent; 4,394 cases and 4,259 controls of South Asian origin) and attempted to replicate putative novel associations in an additional 17,121 CAD cases and 40,473 controls. We report the novel association of variants in or near four genes with CAD and in additional studies identify potential mechanisms by which some of these novel variants affect CAD risk. Interestingly, we found that these variants, as well as the majority of previously reported CAD variants, have similar associations in Europeans and South Asians. Contrary to prior expectations, many previously suggested candidate genes did not show evidence of any effect on CAD risk, and neither did we identify any novel low frequency alleles with strong effects amongst the genes tested. Discovery of novel genes associated with heart disease may help to further understand the aetiology of cardiovascular disease and identify new targets for therapeutic interventions.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1002260
PMCID: PMC3178591  PMID: 21966275
12.  Sporadic cases are the norm for complex disease 
European Journal of Human Genetics  2009;18(9):1039-1043.
The results of genome-wide association studies have revealed that most human complex diseases (for example, cancer, diabetes and psychiatric disorders) are affected by a large number of variants, each of which explains a small increase in disease risk, suggesting a pattern of polygenic inheritance. At the same time, it has been argued that most complex diseases are genetically heterogeneous because many sporadic cases are observed, as well as cases with a family history. In this study, under the assumption of polygenic inheritance, we derive the expected proportion of sporadic cases using analytical methods and simulation. We show how the proportion of sporadic cases depends on disease prevalence (K) and heritability on the underlying liability scale (hL2). We predict the underlying heritability and the proportion of sporadic cases for a range of human complex diseases, and show that this proportion is typically large. For a disease with hL2=63% and K=0.4%, such as schizophrenia, >83% of proband cases are predicted to be sporadic (no affected first-, second- and third-degree relatives) in typical families (on an average, two children per couple). For the majority of these diseases, a large proportion of sporadic cases is expected under the polygenic model, implying that the observed large proportion of sporadic cases is not informative to the causal mechanism of a complex genetic disease.
doi:10.1038/ejhg.2009.177
PMCID: PMC2987426  PMID: 19826454
sporadic case; polygenic inheritance; complex disease
13.  Quantification of Inbreeding Due to Distant Ancestors and Its Detection Using Dense Single Nucleotide Polymorphism Data 
Genetics  2011;189(1):237-249.
Inbreeding depression, which refers to reduced fitness among offspring of related parents, has traditionally been studied using pedigrees. In practice, pedigree information is difficult to obtain, potentially unreliable, and rarely assessed for inbreeding arising from common ancestors who lived more than a few generations ago. Recently, there has been excitement about using SNP data to estimate inbreeding (F) arising from distant common ancestors in apparently “outbred” populations. Statistical power to detect inbreeding depression using SNP data depends on the actual variation in inbreeding in a population, the accuracy of detecting that with marker data, the effect size, and the sample size. No one has yet investigated what variation in F is expected in SNP data as a function of population size, and it is unclear which estimate of F is optimal for detecting inbreeding depression. In the present study, we use theory, simulated genetic data, and real genetic data to find the optimal estimate of F, to quantify the likely variation in F in populations of various sizes, and to estimate the power to detect inbreeding depression. We find that F estimated from runs of homozygosity (Froh), which reflects shared ancestry of genetic haplotypes, retains variation in even large populations (e.g., SD = 0.5% when Ne = 10,000) and is likely to be the most powerful method of detecting inbreeding effects from among several alternative estimates of F. However, large samples (e.g., 12,000–65,000) will be required to detect inbreeding depression for likely effect sizes, and so studies using Froh to date have probably been underpowered.
doi:10.1534/genetics.111.130922
PMCID: PMC3176119  PMID: 21705750
14.  Common variants in TMPRSS6 are associated with iron status and erythrocyte volume 
Nature genetics  2009;41(11):1173-1175.
We report a genome-wide association study to iron status. We identify an association of SNPs in TPMRSS6 to serum iron (rs855791, combined P = 1.5×10−20), transferrin saturation (combined P = 2.2×10−23), and erythrocyte mean cell volume (MCV, combined P = 1.1×10−10). We also find suggestive evidence of association with blood haemoglobin levels (combined P = 5.3×10−7). These findings demonstrate the involvement of TMPRSS6 in control of iron homeostasis and in normal erythropoiesis.
doi:10.1038/ng.456
PMCID: PMC3135421  PMID: 19820699
15.  Genome-wide association study identifies a locus at 7p15.2 associated with endometriosis 
Nature genetics  2010;43(1):51-54.
Endometriosis is a common gynaecological disease associated with pelvic pain and sub-fertility. We conducted a genome-wide association (GWA) study in 3,194 surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 7,060 controls from Australia and the UK. Polygenic predictive modelling showed significantly increased genetic loading among 1,364 cases with moderate-severe endometriosis. The strongest association signal was on 7p15.2 (rs12700667) for ‘all’ endometriosis (P = 2.6 × 10−7, OR = 1.22 (1.13-1.32)) and for moderate-severe disease (P = 1.5 × 10−9 (OR = 1.38 (1.24-1.53)). We replicated rs12700667 in an independent US cohort of 2,392 self-reported surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 2,271 controls (P = 1.2 × 10−3, OR = 1.17 (1.06-1.28)), resulting in a genome-wide significant P-value of 1.4 × 10−9 (OR = 1.20 (1.13-1.27)) for ‘all’ endometriosis in our combined datasets of 5,586 cases and 9,331 controls. SNP rs12700667 is located in an inter-genic region upstream of plausible candidate genes NFE2L3 and HOXA10.
doi:10.1038/ng.731
PMCID: PMC3019124  PMID: 21151130
16.  Polygenic Modeling with Bayesian Sparse Linear Mixed Models 
PLoS Genetics  2013;9(2):e1003264.
Both linear mixed models (LMMs) and sparse regression models are widely used in genetics applications, including, recently, polygenic modeling in genome-wide association studies. These two approaches make very different assumptions, so are expected to perform well in different situations. However, in practice, for a given dataset one typically does not know which assumptions will be more accurate. Motivated by this, we consider a hybrid of the two, which we refer to as a “Bayesian sparse linear mixed model” (BSLMM) that includes both these models as special cases. We address several key computational and statistical issues that arise when applying BSLMM, including appropriate prior specification for the hyper-parameters and a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference. We apply BSLMM and compare it with other methods for two polygenic modeling applications: estimating the proportion of variance in phenotypes explained (PVE) by available genotypes, and phenotype (or breeding value) prediction. For PVE estimation, we demonstrate that BSLMM combines the advantages of both standard LMMs and sparse regression modeling. For phenotype prediction it considerably outperforms either of the other two methods, as well as several other large-scale regression methods previously suggested for this problem. Software implementing our method is freely available from http://stephenslab.uchicago.edu/software.html.
Author Summary
The goal of polygenic modeling is to better understand the relationship between genetic variation and variation in observed characteristics, including variation in quantitative traits (e.g. cholesterol level in humans, milk production in cattle) and disease susceptibility. Improvements in polygenic modeling will help improve our understanding of this relationship and could ultimately lead to, for example, changes in clinical practice in humans or better breeding/mating strategies in agricultural programs. Polygenic models present important challenges, both at the modeling/statistical level (what modeling assumptions produce the best results) and at the computational level (how should these models be effectively fit to data). We develop novel approaches to help tackle both these challenges, and we demonstrate the gains in accuracy that result in both simulated and real data examples.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1003264
PMCID: PMC3567190  PMID: 23408905
17.  Synthetic Associations Created by Rare Variants Do Not Explain Most GWAS Results 
PLoS Biology  2011;9(1):e1000579.
doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1000579
PMCID: PMC3022526  PMID: 21267061
18.  Legacy of mutiny on the Bounty: founder effect and admixture on Norfolk Island 
The population of Norfolk Island, located off the eastern coast of Australia, possesses an unusual and fascinating history. Most present-day islanders are related to a small number of the ‘Bounty' mutineer founders. These founders consisted of Caucasian males and Polynesian females and led to an admixed present-day population. By examining a single large pedigree of 5742 individuals, spanning >200 years, we analyzed the influence of admixture and founder effect on various cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related traits. On account of the relative isolation of the population, on average one-third of the genomes of present-day islanders (single large pedigree individuals) is derived from 17 initial founders. The proportion of Polynesian ancestry in the present-day individuals was found to significantly influence total triglycerides, body mass index, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. For various cholesterol traits, the influence of ancestry was less marked but overall the direction of effect for all CVD-related traits was consistent with Polynesian ancestry conferring greater CVD risk. Marker-derived homozygosity was computed and agreed with measures of inbreeding derived from pedigree information. Founder effect (inbreeding and marker-derived homozygosity) significantly influenced height. In conclusion, both founder effect and extreme admixture have substantially influenced the genetic architecture of a variety of CVD-related traits in this population.
doi:10.1038/ejhg.2009.111
PMCID: PMC2987173  PMID: 19584896
isolated population; extended pedigree; cardiovascular disease; inbreeding
19.  Systems genetics: the added value of gene expression 
HFSP Journal  2010;4(1):6-10.
Understanding causal relationships between genotypes and phenotypes is a long-standing aim in genetics. In addition to high-throughput technologies that allow the measurement of many DNA variants it is possible to measure gene expression in specific tissues using array technology. “Systems genetics” is an emerging discipline that combines dense data on genotypes, gene expression, and outcome phenotypes to answer fundamental questions about causal pathways from genotype to phenotype. A recent paper by Chen et al. [Mol. Syst. Biol. 5, 310 (2009)] addressed the question of whether relative levels of mRNA expression help to elucidate causal paths from genotype to phenotype, using drug resistance in yeast as a model. The authors show that data on genetic markers and on gene expression, measured in a drug-free environment, can be combined to predict the growth of a yeast strain in the presence of a drug. They argue that their prediction can be used to identify causal pathways and for a subset of the genes used in prediction, the authors demonstrate that these genes cause an effect on drug sensitivity by deleting the gene or overexpressing it or swapping alleles between strains of yeast. This approach can also be applied to other species, including humans, and may become a tool in the study of personalized medicine.
doi:10.2976/1.3292182
PMCID: PMC2880025  PMID: 20676303
20.  Geographical Genomics of Human Leukocyte Gene Expression Variation in Southern Morocco 
Nature genetics  2009;42(1):62-67.
Studies of the genetics of gene expression reveal expression SNPs that explain variation in transcript abundance. Here we address the robustness of eSNP associations to environmental geography and population structure in a comparison of 194 Arab and Amazigh individuals from a city and two villages in southern Morocco. Gene expression differed between pairs of locations for up to a third of all transcripts, with notable enrichment for ribosomal biosynthesis and oxidative phosphorylation. Robust associations were observed in the leukocyte samples with cis-eSNPs (P < 10−08) for 346 genes, and trans-eSNPs (P < 10−11) with 10 genes. All of these were consistent across the three sample locations and after controlling for ethnicity and relatedness. No evidence for large-effect trans-acting mediators of the pervasive environmental influence was found and instead genetic and environmental factors acted in a largely additive manner.
doi:10.1038/ng.495
PMCID: PMC2798927  PMID: 19966804
Peripheral blood; eSNP; GWAS; ethnicity; relatedness; environmental geography
21.  Using the realized relationship matrix to disentangle confounding factors for the estimation of genetic variance components of complex traits 
Background
In the analysis of complex traits, genetic effects can be confounded with non-genetic effects, especially when using full-sib families. Dominance and epistatic effects are typically confounded with additive genetic and non-genetic effects. This confounding may cause the estimated genetic variance components to be inaccurate and biased.
Methods
In this study, we constructed genetic covariance structures from whole-genome marker data, and thus used realized relationship matrices to estimate variance components in a heterogenous population of ~ 2200 mice for which four complex traits were investigated. These mice were genotyped for more than 10,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and the variances due to family, cage and genetic effects were estimated by models based on pedigree information only, aggregate SNP information, and model selection for specific SNP effects.
Results and conclusions
We show that the use of genome-wide SNP information can disentangle confounding factors to estimate genetic variances by separating genetic and non-genetic effects. The estimated variance components using realized relationship were more accurate and less biased, compared to those based on pedigree information only. Models that allow the selection of individual SNP in addition to fitting a relationship matrix are more efficient for traits with a significant dominance variance.
doi:10.1186/1297-9686-42-22
PMCID: PMC2903499  PMID: 20546624
22.  The Genetic Interpretation of Area under the ROC Curve in Genomic Profiling 
PLoS Genetics  2010;6(2):e1000864.
Genome-wide association studies in human populations have facilitated the creation of genomic profiles which combine the effects of many associated genetic variants to predict risk of disease. The area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve is a well established measure for determining the efficacy of tests in correctly classifying diseased and non-diseased individuals. We use quantitative genetics theory to provide insight into the genetic interpretation of the area under the ROC curve (AUC) when the test classifier is a predictor of genetic risk. Even when the proportion of genetic variance explained by the test is 100%, there is a maximum value for AUC that depends on the genetic epidemiology of the disease, i.e. either the sibling recurrence risk or heritability and disease prevalence. We derive an equation relating maximum AUC to heritability and disease prevalence. The expression can be reversed to calculate the proportion of genetic variance explained given AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability. We use published estimates of disease prevalence and sibling recurrence risk for 17 complex genetic diseases to calculate the proportion of genetic variance that a test must explain to achieve AUC = 0.75; this varied from 0.10 to 0.74. We provide a genetic interpretation of AUC for use with predictors of genetic risk based on genomic profiles. We provide a strategy to estimate proportion of genetic variance explained on the liability scale from estimates of AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability (or sibling recurrence risk) available as an online calculator.
Author Summary
Genome-wide association studies in human populations have facilitated the creation of genomic profiles that combine the effects of many associated genetic variants to predict risk of disease. However, genomic profiles are inherently constrained in their ability to classify diseased from non-diseased individuals dictated by the genetic epidemiology of the disease. In this paper, we use a genetic interpretation to provide insight into the constraints on genomic profiles for risk prediction. We provide a strategy to estimate proportion of genetic variance explained on the liability scale from estimates of AUC, disease prevalence, and heritability available as an online calculator.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1000864
PMCID: PMC2829056  PMID: 20195508
23.  Narrowing the Boundaries of the Genetic Architecture of Schizophrenia 
Schizophrenia Bulletin  2009;36(1):14-23.
Genetic architecture of a disease comprises the number, frequency, and effect sizes of genetic risk alleles and the way in which they combine together. Before the genomic revolution, the only clue to underlying genetic architecture of schizophrenia came from the recurrence risks to relatives and the segregation patterns within families. From these clues, very simple genetic architectures could be rejected, but many architectures were consistent with the observed family data. The new era of genome-wide association studies can provide further clues to the genetic architecture of schizophrenia. We explore models of genetic architecture by description rather than the mathematics that underpins them. We conclude that the new genome-wide data allow us to narrow the boundaries on the models of genetic architecture that are consistent with the observed data. A genetic architecture of many common variants of moderate (relative risk > approximately 1.2) can be excluded, yet there is evidence that current generation genome-wide chips do tag an important proportion of the genetic variation for schizophrenia and that the underlying causal variants will include common variants of small effect as well as rarer variants of larger effect. Together, these observations imply that the total number of genetic variants is very large—of the order of thousands. The first generation of studies have generated hypotheses that should be testable in the near future and will further narrow the boundaries on genetic architectures that are consistent with empirical data.
doi:10.1093/schbul/sbp137
PMCID: PMC2800151  PMID: 19996148
schizophrenia; complex genetic disease; genetic architecture; polygenic
24.  Identification of IL6R and chromosome 11q13.5 as risk loci for asthma 
Lancet  2011;378(9795):1006-1014.
Background
We aimed to identify novel genetic variants affecting asthma risk, since these might provide novel insights into molecular mechanisms underlying asthma.
Methods
We performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2,669 physician-diagnosed asthmatics and 4,528 controls from Australia. Seven loci were prioritised for replication after combining our results with those from the GABRIEL consortium (n=26,475), and these were tested in an additional 25,358 independent samples from four in-silico cohorts. Quantitative multi-SNP scores of genetic load were constructed on the basis of results from the GABRIEL study and tested for association with asthma in our Australian GWAS dataset.
Findings
Two loci were confirmed to associate with asthma risk in the replication cohorts and reached genome-wide significance in the combined analysis of all available studies (n=57,800): rs4129267 (OR=1.09, combined P=2.4×10−8) in the interleukin-6 receptor gene (IL6R) and rs7130588 (OR=1.09, P=1.8×10−8) on chromosome 11q13.5 near the leucine-rich repeat containing 32 gene (LRRC32, also known as GARP). The 11q13.5 locus was significantly associated with atopic status among asthmatics (OR = 1.33, P = 7×10−4), suggesting that it is a risk factor for allergic but not non-allergic asthma. Multi-SNP association results are consistent with a highly polygenic contribution to asthma risk, including loci with weak effects that may be shared with other immune-related diseases, such as NDFIP1, HLA-B, LPP and BACH2.
Interpretation
The IL6R association further supports the hypothesis that cytokine signalling dysregulation affects asthma risk, and raises the possibility that an IL6R antagonist (tocilizumab) may be effective to treat the disease, perhaps in a genotype-dependent manner. Results for the 11q13.5 locus suggest that it directly increases the risk of allergic sensitisation which, in turn, increases the risk of subsequent development of asthma. Larger or more functionally focused studies are needed to characterise the many loci with modest effects that remain to be identified for asthma.
Funding
A full list of funding sources appears at the end of the paper.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(11)60874-X
PMCID: PMC3517659  PMID: 21907864
25.  Detection of multiple quantitative trait loci and their pleiotropic effects in outbred pig populations 
Background
Simultaneous detection of multiple QTLs (quantitative trait loci) may allow more accurate estimation of genetic effects. We have analyzed outbred commercial pig populations with different single and multiple models to clarify their genetic properties and in addition, we have investigated pleiotropy among growth and obesity traits based on allelic correlation within a gamete.
Methods
Three closed populations, (A) 427 individuals from a Yorkshire and Large White synthetic breed, (B) 547 Large White individuals and (C) 531 Large White individuals, were analyzed using a variance component method with one-QTL and two-QTL models. Six markers on chromosome 4 and five to seven markers on chromosome 7 were used.
Results
Population A displayed a high test statistic for the fat trait when applying the two-QTL model with two positions on two chromosomes. The estimated heritabilities for polygenic effects and for the first and second QTL were 19%, 17% and 21%, respectively. The high correlation of the estimated allelic effect on the same gamete and QTL test statistics suggested that the two separate QTL which were detected on different chromosomes both have pleiotropic effects on the two fat traits. Analysis of population B using the one-QTL model for three fat traits found a similar peak position on chromosome 7. Allelic effects of three fat traits from the same gamete were highly correlated suggesting the presence of a pleiotropic QTL. In population C, three growth traits also displayed similar peak positions on chromosome 7 and allelic effects from the same gamete were correlated.
Conclusion
Detection of the second QTL in a model reduced the polygenic heritability and should improve accuracy of estimated heritabilities for both QTLs.
doi:10.1186/1297-9686-41-44
PMCID: PMC2762464  PMID: 19807906

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