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1.  Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis 
Wormser, David | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Kaptoge, Stephen | Wood, Angela M | Gao, Pei | Sun, Qi | Walldius, Göran | Selmer, Randi | Verschuren, WM Monique | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Engström, Gunnar | Ridker, Paul M | Njølstad, Inger | Iso, Hiroyasu | Holme, Ingar | Giampaoli, Simona | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Gaziano, J Michael | Brunner, Eric | Kee, Frank | Tosetto, Alberto | Meisinger, Christa | Brenner, Hermann | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Whincup, Peter H | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Ian | Cremer, Peter | Hofman, Albert | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Clarke, Robert | de Boer, Ian H | Jukema, J Wouter | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Lawlor, Debbie A | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Casiglia, Edoardo | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Simons, Leon A | Nietert, Paul J | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Björkelund, Cecilia | Strandberg, Timo E | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Blazer, Dan G | Meade, Tom W | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Woodward, Mark | Nissinen, Aulikki | Kromhout, Daan | Jørgensen, Torben | Tilvis, Reijo S | Guralnik, Jack M | Rosengren, Annika | Taylor, James O | Kiechl, Stefan | Dagenais, Gilles R | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Wallace, Robert B | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Visser, Marjolein | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Kitamura, Akihiko | Sundström, Johan | Wennberg, Patrik | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Daimon, Makoto | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Cooper, Jackie A | Onat, Altan | Devereux, Richard | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Dankner, Rachel | Knuiman, Matthew W | Crespo, Carlos J | Gansevoort, Ron T | Goldbourt, Uri | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Shaw, Jonathan E | Mussolino, Michael | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Fletcher, Astrid | Kuller, Lewis H | Gillum, Richard F | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Assmann, Gerd | Wald, Nicholas | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Greenland, Philip | Trevisan, Maurizio | Ulmer, Hanno | Butterworth, Adam S | Folsom, Aaron R | Davey-Smith, George | Hu, Frank B | Danesh, John | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Charles E | Simpson, Lara M | Walldius, Göran | Jungner, Ingmar | Folsom, Aaron R | Demerath, Ellen W | Franceschini, Nora | Lutsey, Pamela L | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Pitsavos, Christos | Chrysohoou, Christina | Stefanadis, Christodoulos | Shaw, Jonathan E | Atkins, Robert | Zimmet, Paul Z | Barr, Elizabeth LM | Knuiman, Matthew W | Whincup, Peter H | Wannamethee, S Goya | Morris, Richard W | Willeit, Johann | Kiechl, Stefan | Weger, Siegfried | Oberhollenzer, Friedrich | Wald, Nicholas | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Yarnell, John WG | Casiglia, Edoardo | Tikhonoff, Valérie | Greenland, Philip | Shay, Christina M | Garside, Daniel B | Nietert, Paul J | Sutherland, Susan E | Bachman, David L | Keil, Julian E | de Boer, Ian H | Kizer, Jorge R | Psaty, Bruce M | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Jensen, Gorm B | Schnohr, Peter | Giampaoli, Simona | Palmieri, Luigi | Panico, Salvatore | Pilotto, Lorenza | Vanuzzo, Diego | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Simons, Leon A | Simons, Judith | McCallum, John | Friedlander, Yechiel | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Price, Jackie F | Lee, Amanda J | Taylor, James O | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Wallace, Robert B | Kohout, Frank J | Cornoni-Huntley, Joan C | Guralnik, Jack M | Blazer, Dan G | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Phillips, Caroline L | Guralnik, Jack M | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Rothenbacher, Dietrich | Wennberg, Patrik | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Nissinen, Aulikki | Donfrancesco, Chiara | Giampaoli, Simona | Woodward, Mark | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Vasan, Ramachandran S | Fox, Caroline S | Pencina, Michael J | Daimon, Makoto | Oizumi, Toshihide | Kayama, Takamasa | Kato, Takeo | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Møller, Lars | Jespersen, Jørgen | Dankner, Rachel | Chetrit, Angela | Lubin, Flora | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Welin, Lennart | Lappas, Georgios | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Lappas, Georgios | Bengtsson, Calle | Lissner, Lauren | Björkelund, Cecilia | Cremer, Peter | Nagel, Dorothea | Strandberg, Timo E | Salomaa, Veikko | Tilvis, Reijo S | Miettinen, Tatu A | Tilvis, Reijo S | Strandberg, Timo E | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Dekker, Jacqueline M | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Rimm, Eric B | Willett, Walter C | Iso, Hiroyasu | Kitamura, Akihiko | Yamagishi, Kazumasa | Noda, Hiroyuki | Goldbourt, Uri | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Kurl, Sudhir | Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka | Poppelaars, Jan L | Deeg, Dorly JH | Visser, Marjolein | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Hedblad, Bo | Nilsson, Peter | Engström, Gunnar | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | de Boer, Ian H | Shea, Steven J | Meisinger, Christa | Thorand, Barbara | Koenig, Wolfgang | Döring, Angela | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Fletcher, Astrid | Nitsch, Dorothea | Kuller, Lewis H | Grandits, Greg | Tverdal, Aage | Selmer, Randi | Nystad, Wenche | Mussolino, Michael | Gillum, Richard F | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Manson, JoAnn E | Rimm, Eric B | Hankinson, Susan E | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Cooper, Jackie A | Bauer, Kenneth A | Davidson, Karina W | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Shimbo, Daichi | Kitamura, Akihiko | Iso, Hiroyasu | Sato, Shinichi | Holme, Ingar | Selmer, Randi | Tverdal, Aage | Nystad, Wenche | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Miura, Katsuyuki | Sakurai, Masaru | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Jouven, Xavier | Bakker, Stephan JL | Gansevoort, Ron T | van der Harst, Pim | Hillege, Hans L | Crespo, Carlos J | Garcia-Palmieri, Mario R | Kee, Frank | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Ferrières, Jean | Schulte, Helmut | Assmann, Gerd | Jukema, J Wouter | de Craen, Anton JM | Sattar, Naveed | Stott, David J | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Després, Jean-Pierre | Dagenais, Gilles R | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Bergstrom, Jaclyn | Bettencourt, Richele R | Buisson, Catherine | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Trevisan, Maurizio | Hofman, Albert | Ikram, M Arfan | Tiemeier, Henning | Witteman, Jacqueline CM | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Tavendale, Roger | Lowe, Gordon DO | Woodward, Mark | Devereux, Richard | Yeh, Jeun-Liang | Ali, Tauqeer | Calhoun, Darren | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Davey-Smith, George | Onat, Altan | Can, Günay | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Sakurai, Masaru | Nakamura, Koshi | Morikawa, Yuko | Njølstad, Inger | Mathiesen, Ellisiv B | Løchen, Maja-Lisa | Wilsgaard, Tom | Sundström, Johan | Ingelsson, Erik | Michaëlsson, Karl | Cederholm, Tommy | Gaziano, J Michael | Buring, Julie | Ridker, Paul M | Gaziano, J Michael | Ridker, Paul M | Ulmer, Hanno | Diem, Günter | Concin, Hans | Rodeghiero, Francesco | Tosetto, Alberto | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Manson, JoAnn E | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimaki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M | Buring, Julie | Ford, Ian | Robertson, Michele | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Feskens, Edith | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Kromhout, Daan | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Franco, Oscar H | Gao, Pei | Gobin, Reeta | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Seshasai, Sreenivasa R Kondapally | Lewington, Sarah | Pennells, Lisa | Rapsomaniki, Eleni | Sarwar, Nadeem | Thompson, Alexander | Thompson, Simon G | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R | Wood, Angela M | Wormser, David | Zhao, Xiaohui | Danesh, John
Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.
Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual–participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.
Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5–1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96–0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93–0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03–1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90–0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12–1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80–0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.
Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
doi:10.1093/ije/dys086
PMCID: PMC3465767  PMID: 22825588
Height; cardiovascular disease; cancer; cause-specific mortality; epidemiological study; meta-analysis
2.  Does Vitamin D Mediate the Protective Effects of Time Outdoors On Myopia? Findings From a Prospective Birth Cohort 
Purpose.
More time outdoors is associated with a lesser risk of myopia, but the underlying mechanism is unclear. We tested the hypothesis that 25-hydroxyvitamin D (vitamin D) mediates the protective effects of time outdoors against myopia.
Methods.
We analyzed data for children participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) population-based birth cohort: noncycloplegic autorefraction at age 7 to 15 years; maternal report of time outdoors at age 8 years and serum vitamin D2 and D3 at age 10 years. A survival analysis hazard ratio (HR) for incident myopia was calculated for children spending a high- versus low-time outdoors, before and after controlling for vitamin D level (N = 3677).
Results.
Total vitamin D and D3, but not D2, levels were higher in children who spent more time outdoors (mean [95% confidence interval (CI)] vitamin D in nmol/L: Total, 60.0 [59.4–60.6] vs. 56.9 [55.0–58.8], P = 0.001; D3, 55.4 [54.9–56.0] vs. 53.0 [51.3–54.9], P = 0.014; D2, 5.7 [5.5–5.8] vs. 5.4 [5.1–5.8], P = 0.23). In models including both time outdoors and sunlight-exposure–related vitamin D, there was no independent association between vitamin D and incident myopia (Total, HR = 0.83 [0.66–1.04], P = 0.11; D3, HR = 0.89 [0.72–1.10], P = 0.30), while time outdoors retained the same strong negative association with incident myopia as in unadjusted models (HR = 0.69 [0.55–0.86], P = 0.001).
Conclusions.
Total vitamin D and D3 were biomarkers for time spent outdoors, however there was no evidence they were independently associated with future myopia.
In a birth cohort with longitudinal refractive error covering ages 7 to 15 years, the evidence did not support the hypothesis that vitamin D mediated the protective effects of time spent outdoors against incident myopia. This suggests an alternative mechanism underlies time outdoors' protective effects.
doi:10.1167/iovs.14-15839
PMCID: PMC4280087  PMID: 25406278
myopia; refractive error; epidemiology; vitamin D; light levels
3.  The association of maternal diabetes in pregnancy with offspring adiposity into early adulthood: Sibling study in a prospective cohort of 280,866 men from 248,293 families 
Circulation  2011;123(3):258-265.
Background
Maternal diabetes in pregnancy results in greater offspring adiposity at birth. It is unclear whether it is associated with greater adiposity into adulthood, and if so whether this is via intrauterine mechanisms or shared familial characteristics.
Methods and Results
A record linkage prospective cohort study of 280,866 singleton-born Swedish men from 248,293 families was used to explore the intrauterine effect of maternal diabetes on offspring body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood. Maternal diabetes during pregnancy was associated with greater mean BMI at age 18 in their sons. The difference in BMI was similar within brothers and between non-siblings. BMI of men whose mothers had diabetes during their pregnancy was on average 0.94kg/m2 greater (95%CI: 0.35, 1.52) than in their brothers born before their mother was diagnosed with diabetes, after adjustment for birth year, maternal age, parity and education, birthweight, gestational age and age at assessment of BMI. Early-pregnancy BMI was positively associated with son’s BMI between non-siblings, but there was no association within brothers. Adjustment of the maternal diabetes-offspring BMI association for maternal BMI did not alter the association either within brothers or between non-siblings. Results were also robust to sensitivity analyses restricting the within sibling analyses to siblings born within 3 years of each other.
Conclusion
Maternal diabetes has long-term consequences for greater BMI in offspring and this association is likely to be via intrauterine mechanisms and is independent of maternal BMI in early pregnancy.
doi:10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.110.980169
PMCID: PMC4440894  PMID: 21220735
Pregnancy diabetes; developmental overnutrition; obesity; epidemiology
4.  A genome-wide association study of body mass index across early life and childhood 
Background: Several studies have investigated the effect of known adult body mass index (BMI) associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on BMI in childhood. There has been no genome-wide association study (GWAS) of BMI trajectories over childhood.
Methods: We conducted a GWAS meta-analysis of BMI trajectories from 1 to 17 years of age in 9377 children (77 967 measurements) from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study. Genome-wide significant loci were examined in a further 3918 individuals (48 530 measurements) from Northern Finland. Linear mixed effects models with smoothing splines were used in each cohort for longitudinal modelling of BMI.
Results: A novel SNP, downstream from the FAM120AOS gene on chromosome 9, was detected in the meta-analysis of ALSPAC and Raine. This association was driven by a difference in BMI at 8 years (T allele of rs944990 increased BMI; PSNP = 1.52 × 10−8), with a modest association with change in BMI over time (PWald(Change) = 0.006). Three known adult BMI-associated loci (FTO, MC4R and ADCY3) and one childhood obesity locus (OLFM4) reached genome-wide significance (PWald < 1.13 × 10−8) with BMI at 8 years and/or change over time.
Conclusions: This GWAS of BMI trajectories over childhood identified a novel locus that warrants further investigation. We also observed genome-wide significance with previously established obesity loci, making the novel observation that these loci affected both the level and the rate of change in BMI. We have demonstrated that the use of repeated measures data can increase power to allow detection of genetic loci with smaller sample sizes.
doi:10.1093/ije/dyv077
PMCID: PMC4469798  PMID: 25953783
Body mass index; genome-wide association study; trajectory; childhood; ALSPAC; Raine
5.  Linear spline multilevel models for summarising childhood growth trajectories: A guide to their application using examples from five birth cohorts 
Childhood growth is of interest in medical research concerned with determinants and consequences of variation from healthy growth and development. Linear spline multilevel modelling is a useful approach for deriving individual summary measures of growth, which overcomes several data issues (co-linearity of repeat measures, the requirement for all individuals to be measured at the same ages, and bias due to missing data). Here, we outline the application of this methodology to model individual trajectories of length/height and weight, drawing on examples from five cohorts from different generations and different geographical regions with varying levels of economic development. We describe the unique features of the data within each cohort that have implications for the application of linear spline multilevel models, e.g. differences in the density and inter-individual variation in measurement occasions, and multiple sources of measurement with varying measurement error. After providing example Stata syntax and a suggested workflow for the implementation of linear spline multilevel models, we conclude with a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the linear spline approach compared with other growth modelling methods such as fractional polynomials, more complex spline functions and other non-linear models.
doi:10.1177/0962280213503925
PMCID: PMC4074455  PMID: 24108269
child; growth; height; longitudinal; multilevel models; spline; weight; ALSPAC; Born in Bradford; Generation XXI; Pelotas; PROBIT
6.  External Validation and Calibration of IVFpredict: A National Prospective Cohort Study of 130,960 In Vitro Fertilisation Cycles 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(4):e0121357.
Background
Accurately predicting the probability of a live birth after in vitro fertilisation (IVF) is important for patients, healthcare providers and policy makers. Two prediction models (Templeton and IVFpredict) have been previously developed from UK data and are widely used internationally. The more recent of these, IVFpredict, was shown to have greater predictive power in the development dataset. The aim of this study was external validation of the two models and comparison of their predictive ability.
Methods and Findings
130,960 IVF cycles undertaken in the UK in 2008–2010 were used to validate and compare the Templeton and IVFpredict models. Discriminatory power was calculated using the area under the receiver-operator curve and calibration assessed using a calibration plot and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The scaled modified Brier score, with measures of reliability and resolution, were calculated to assess overall accuracy. Both models were compared after updating for current live birth rates to ensure that the average observed and predicted live birth rates were equal. The discriminative power of both methods was comparable: the area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.628 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.625–0.631) for IVFpredict and 0.616 (95% CI: 0.613–0.620) for the Templeton model. IVFpredict had markedly better calibration and higher diagnostic accuracy, with calibration plot intercept of 0.040 (95% CI: 0.017–0.063) and slope of 0.932 (95% CI: 0.839–1.025) compared with 0.080 (95% CI: 0.044–0.117) and 1.419 (95% CI: 1.149–1.690) for the Templeton model. Both models underestimated the live birth rate, but this was particularly marked in the Templeton model. Updating the models to reflect improvements in live birth rates since the models were developed enhanced their performance, but IVFpredict remained superior.
Conclusion
External validation in a large population cohort confirms IVFpredict has superior discrimination and calibration for informing patients, clinicians and healthcare policy makers of the probability of live birth following IVF.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0121357
PMCID: PMC4390202  PMID: 25853703
7.  Glycated Hemoglobin Measurement and Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease 
Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Gao, Pei | Khan, Hassan | Butterworth, Adam S. | Wormser, David | Kaptoge, Stephen | Kondapally Seshasai, Sreenivasa Rao | Thompson, Alex | Sarwar, Nadeem | Willeit, Peter | Ridker, Paul M | Barr, Elizabeth L.M. | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Psaty, Bruce M. | Brenner, Hermann | Balkau, Beverley | Dekker, Jacqueline M. | Lawlor, Debbie A. | Daimon, Makoto | Willeit, Johann | Njølstad, Inger | Nissinen, Aulikki | Brunner, Eric J. | Kuller, Lewis H. | Price, Jackie F. | Sundström, Johan | Knuiman, Matthew W. | Feskens, Edith J. M. | Verschuren, W. M. M. | Wald, Nicholas | Bakker, Stephan J. L. | Whincup, Peter H. | Ford, Ian | Goldbourt, Uri | Gómez-de-la-Cámara, Agustín | Gallacher, John | Simons, Leon A. | Rosengren, Annika | Sutherland, Susan E. | Björkelund, Cecilia | Blazer, Dan G. | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Onat, Altan | Marín Ibañez, Alejandro | Casiglia, Edoardo | Jukema, J. Wouter | Simpson, Lara M. | Giampaoli, Simona | Nordestgaard, Børge G. | Selmer, Randi | Wennberg, Patrik | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T. | Dankner, Rachel | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Kavousi, Maryam | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Evans, Denis | Wallace, Robert B. | Cushman, Mary | D’Agostino, Ralph B. | Umans, Jason G. | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Sato, Shinichi | Gillum, Richard F. | Folsom, Aaron R. | van der Schouw, Yvonne T. | Moons, Karel G. | Griffin, Simon J. | Sattar, Naveed | Wareham, Nicholas J. | Selvin, Elizabeth | Thompson, Simon G. | Danesh, John
JAMA  2014;311(12):1225-1233.
IMPORTANCE
The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain.
OBJECTIVE
To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294 998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES
Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5%to <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) risk.
RESULTS
During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20 840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13 237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (−0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.
doi:10.1001/jama.2014.1873
PMCID: PMC4386007  PMID: 24668104
8.  Parent-of-origin specific allelic associations among 106 genomic loci for age at menarche 
Perry, John RB | Day, Felix | Elks, Cathy E | Sulem, Patrick | Thompson, Deborah J | Ferreira, Teresa | He, Chunyan | Chasman, Daniel I | Esko, Tõnu | Thorleifsson, Gudmar | Albrecht, Eva | Ang, Wei Q | Corre, Tanguy | Cousminer, Diana L | Feenstra, Bjarke | Franceschini, Nora | Ganna, Andrea | Johnson, Andrew D | Kjellqvist, Sanela | Lunetta, Kathryn L | McMahon, George | Nolte, Ilja M | Paternoster, Lavinia | Porcu, Eleonora | Smith, Albert V | Stolk, Lisette | Teumer, Alexander | Tšernikova, Natalia | Tikkanen, Emmi | Ulivi, Sheila | Wagner, Erin K | Amin, Najaf | Bierut, Laura J | Byrne, Enda M | Hottenga, Jouke-Jan | Koller, Daniel L | Mangino, Massimo | Pers, Tune H | Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M | Zhao, Jing Hua | Andrulis, Irene L | Anton-Culver, Hoda | Atsma, Femke | Bandinelli, Stefania | Beckmann, Matthias W | Benitez, Javier | Blomqvist, Carl | Bojesen, Stig E | Bolla, Manjeet K | Bonanni, Bernardo | Brauch, Hiltrud | Brenner, Hermann | Buring, Julie E | Chang-Claude, Jenny | Chanock, Stephen | Chen, Jinhui | Chenevix-Trench, Georgia | Collée, J. Margriet | Couch, Fergus J | Couper, David | Coveillo, Andrea D | Cox, Angela | Czene, Kamila | D’adamo, Adamo Pio | Smith, George Davey | De Vivo, Immaculata | Demerath, Ellen W | Dennis, Joe | Devilee, Peter | Dieffenbach, Aida K | Dunning, Alison M | Eiriksdottir, Gudny | Eriksson, Johan G | Fasching, Peter A | Ferrucci, Luigi | Flesch-Janys, Dieter | Flyger, Henrik | Foroud, Tatiana | Franke, Lude | Garcia, Melissa E | García-Closas, Montserrat | Geller, Frank | de Geus, Eco EJ | Giles, Graham G | Gudbjartsson, Daniel F | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Guénel, Pascal | Guo, Suiqun | Hall, Per | Hamann, Ute | Haring, Robin | Hartman, Catharina A | Heath, Andrew C | Hofman, Albert | Hooning, Maartje J | Hopper, John L | Hu, Frank B | Hunter, David J | Karasik, David | Kiel, Douglas P | Knight, Julia A | Kosma, Veli-Matti | Kutalik, Zoltan | Lai, Sandra | Lambrechts, Diether | Lindblom, Annika | Mägi, Reedik | Magnusson, Patrik K | Mannermaa, Arto | Martin, Nicholas G | Masson, Gisli | McArdle, Patrick F | McArdle, Wendy L | Melbye, Mads | Michailidou, Kyriaki | Mihailov, Evelin | Milani, Lili | Milne, Roger L | Nevanlinna, Heli | Neven, Patrick | Nohr, Ellen A | Oldehinkel, Albertine J | Oostra, Ben A | Palotie, Aarno | Peacock, Munro | Pedersen, Nancy L | Peterlongo, Paolo | Peto, Julian | Pharoah, Paul DP | Postma, Dirkje S | Pouta, Anneli | Pylkäs, Katri | Radice, Paolo | Ring, Susan | Rivadeneira, Fernando | Robino, Antonietta | Rose, Lynda M | Rudolph, Anja | Salomaa, Veikko | Sanna, Serena | Schlessinger, David | Schmidt, Marjanka K | Southey, Mellissa C | Sovio, Ulla | Stampfer, Meir J | Stöckl, Doris | Storniolo, Anna M | Timpson, Nicholas J | Tyrer, Jonathan | Visser, Jenny A | Vollenweider, Peter | Völzke, Henry | Waeber, Gerard | Waldenberger, Melanie | Wallaschofski, Henri | Wang, Qin | Willemsen, Gonneke | Winqvist, Robert | Wolffenbuttel, Bruce HR | Wright, Margaret J | Boomsma, Dorret I | Econs, Michael J | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Loos, Ruth JF | McCarthy, Mark I | Montgomery, Grant W | Rice, John P | Streeten, Elizabeth A | Thorsteinsdottir, Unnur | van Duijn, Cornelia M | Alizadeh, Behrooz Z | Bergmann, Sven | Boerwinkle, Eric | Boyd, Heather A | Crisponi, Laura | Gasparini, Paolo | Gieger, Christian | Harris, Tamara B | Ingelsson, Erik | Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta | Kraft, Peter | Lawlor, Debbie | Metspalu, Andres | Pennell, Craig E | Ridker, Paul M | Snieder, Harold | Sørensen, Thorkild IA | Spector, Tim D | Strachan, David P | Uitterlinden, André G | Wareham, Nicholas J | Widen, Elisabeth | Zygmunt, Marek | Murray, Anna | Easton, Douglas F | Stefansson, Kari | Murabito, Joanne M | Ong, Ken K
Nature  2014;514(7520):92-97.
Age at menarche is a marker of timing of puberty in females. It varies widely between individuals, is a heritable trait and is associated with risks for obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer and all-cause mortality1. Studies of rare human disorders of puberty and animal models point to a complex hypothalamic-pituitary-hormonal regulation2,3, but the mechanisms that determine pubertal timing and underlie its links to disease risk remain unclear. Here, using genome-wide and custom-genotyping arrays in up to 182,416 women of European descent from 57 studies, we found robust evidence (P<5×10−8) for 123 signals at 106 genomic loci associated with age at menarche. Many loci were associated with other pubertal traits in both sexes, and there was substantial overlap with genes implicated in body mass index and various diseases, including rare disorders of puberty. Menarche signals were enriched in imprinted regions, with three loci (DLK1/WDR25, MKRN3/MAGEL2 and KCNK9) demonstrating parent-of-origin specific associations concordant with known parental expression patterns. Pathway analyses implicated nuclear hormone receptors, particularly retinoic acid and gamma-aminobutyric acid-B2 receptor signaling, among novel mechanisms that regulate pubertal timing in humans. Our findings suggest a genetic architecture involving at least hundreds of common variants in the coordinated timing of the pubertal transition.
doi:10.1038/nature13545
PMCID: PMC4185210  PMID: 25231870
9.  A life course approach to cardiovascular aging 
Future cardiology  2015;11(1):101-113.
A life course approach in epidemiology investigates the biological, behavioral and social pathways that link physical and social exposures and experiences during gestation, childhood, adolescence and adult life, and across generations, to later-life health and disease risk. We illustrate how a life course approach has been applied to cardiovascular disease, highlighting the evidence in support of the early origins of disease risk. We summarize how trajectories of cardiometabolic risk factors change over the life course and suggest that understanding underlying ‘normal’ or ‘healthy’ trajectories and the characteristics that drive deviations from such trajectories offer the potential for early prevention and for identifying means of preventing future disease.
doi:10.2217/fca.14.67
PMCID: PMC4374150  PMID: 25606706
adiposity; birth weight; blood pressure; cardiovascular disease; cohort studies; glucose; life course; lipids; longitudinal modeling; social inequalities
10.  Childhood Energy Intake Is Associated with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease in Adolescents123 
The Journal of Nutrition  2015;145(5):983-989.
Background: Greater adiposity is an important risk factor for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Thus, it is likely that dietary intake is involved in the development of the disease. Prospective studies assessing the relation between childhood dietary intake and risk of NAFLD are lacking.
Objective: This study was designed to explore associations between energy, carbohydrate, sugar, starch, protein, monounsaturated fat, polyunsaturated fat, saturated fat, and total fat intake by youth at ages 3, 7, and 13 y and subsequent (mean age: 17.8 y) ultrasound scan (USS)–measured liver fat and stiffness and serum alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyltransferase. We assessed whether observed associations were mediated through fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.
Methods: Participants were from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Trajectories of energy and macronutrient intake from ages 3–13 y were obtained with linear-spline multilevel models. Linear and logistic regression models examined whether energy intake and absolute and energy-adjusted macronutrient intake at ages 3, 7, and 13 y were associated with liver outcomes.
Results: Energy intake at all ages was positively associated with liver outcomes; for example, the odds of having a USS-measured liver fat per 100 kcal increase in energy intake at age 3 y were 1.79 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.79). Associations between absolute macronutrient intake and liver outcomes were inconsistent and attenuated to the null after adjustment for total energy intake. The majority of associations attenuated to the null after adjustment for fat mass at the time liver outcomes were assessed.
Conclusion: Higher childhood and early adolescent energy intake is associated with greater NAFLD risk, and the macronutrients from which energy intake is derived are less important. These associations appear to be mediated, at least in part, by fat mass at the time of outcome assessment.
doi:10.3945/jn.114.208397
PMCID: PMC4410498  PMID: 25788585
diet; energy intake; childhood; NAFLD; fatty liver
11.  The relationship between early life modifiable risk factors for childhood obesity, ethnicity and body mass index at age 3 years: findings from the Born in Bradford birth cohort study 
BMC obesity  2015;2:9.
Background
Many modifiable risk factors in early infancy have been shown to be associated with childhood overweight and obesity. These risk factors have not been studied within children of South Asian origin in the UK. The aims of this paper are to describe differences in the prevalence of modifiable risk factors for childhood obesity between children of White British and Pakistani origin and investigate the association between these risk factors and childhood BMI measured at age 3 years. We used data from a sub-study of the Born in Bradford birth cohort with detailed follow-up visits throughout early childhood. 987 participants with a BMI measurement at age 3 were included; 39% were White British, 48% were of Pakistani origin and 13% were of other ethnicities. Linear and Poisson regression models were used to assess the association between risk factors and two outcomes at age 3; BMI z-scores and child overweight.
Results
Compared to Pakistani mothers, White British mothers were more likely to smoke during pregnancy, have higher BMI, breastfeed for a shorter duration and wean earlier, while Pakistani mothers had higher rates of gestational diabetes and were less active. There was no strong evidence that the relationship between risk factors and BMI z-score differed by ethnicity. There were associations between BMI z-score and maternal smoking (mean difference in BMI z-score 0.33 (95% CI 0.13, 0.53)), maternal obesity (0.37 (0.19, 0.55)), indulgent feeding style (0.15 (−0.06, 0.36)), lower parental warmth scores (0.21 (0.05, 0.36)) and higher parental hostility scores (0.17 (0.01, 0.33)). Consistent associations between these risk factors and child overweight were found. Mean BMI and the relative risk of being overweight were lower in children of mothers with lower parental self-efficacy scores and who watched more hours of TV. Other risk factors (gestational diabetes, child diet, child sleep, child TV viewing and maternal physical activity) were not associated with BMI.
Conclusions
Whilst the prevalence of risk factors that have been associated with childhood greater BMI differ between White British and Pakistani the magnitude of their associations with BMI are similar in the two groups.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40608-015-0037-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
doi:10.1186/s40608-015-0037-5
PMCID: PMC4510905  PMID: 26217524
Body mass index; Overweight; Early childhood risk factors; Ethnicity; Born in Bradford
12.  HMG-coenzyme A reductase inhibition, type 2 diabetes, and bodyweight: evidence from genetic analysis and randomised trials 
Swerdlow, Daniel I | Preiss, David | Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B | Holmes, Michael V | Engmann, Jorgen E L | Shah, Tina | Sofat, Reecha | Stender, Stefan | Johnson, Paul C D | Scott, Robert A | Leusink, Maarten | Verweij, Niek | Sharp, Stephen J | Guo, Yiran | Giambartolomei, Claudia | Chung, Christina | Peasey, Anne | Amuzu, Antoinette | Li, KaWah | Palmen, Jutta | Howard, Philip | Cooper, Jackie A | Drenos, Fotios | Li, Yun R | Lowe, Gordon | Gallacher, John | Stewart, Marlene C W | Tzoulaki, Ioanna | Buxbaum, Sarah G | van der A, Daphne L | Forouhi, Nita G | Onland-Moret, N Charlotte | van der Schouw, Yvonne T | Schnabel, Renate B | Hubacek, Jaroslav A | Kubinova, Ruzena | Baceviciene, Migle | Tamosiunas, Abdonas | Pajak, Andrzej | Topor-Madry, Romanvan | Stepaniak, Urszula | Malyutina, Sofia | Baldassarre, Damiano | Sennblad, Bengt | Tremoli, Elena | de Faire, Ulf | Veglia, Fabrizio | Ford, Ian | Jukema, J Wouter | Westendorp, Rudi G J | de Borst, Gert Jan | de Jong, Pim A | Algra, Ale | Spiering, Wilko | der Zee, Anke H Maitland-van | Klungel, Olaf H | de Boer, Anthonius | Doevendans, Pieter A | Eaton, Charles B | Robinson, Jennifer G | Duggan, David | Kjekshus, John | Downs, John R | Gotto, Antonio M | Keech, Anthony C | Marchioli, Roberto | Tognoni, Gianni | Sever, Peter S | Poulter, Neil R | Waters, David D | Pedersen, Terje R | Amarenco, Pierre | Nakamura, Haruo | McMurray, John J V | Lewsey, James D | Chasman, Daniel I | Ridker, Paul M | Maggioni, Aldo P | Tavazzi, Luigi | Ray, Kausik K | Seshasai, Sreenivasa Rao Kondapally | Manson, JoAnn E | Price, Jackie F | Whincup, Peter H | Morris, Richard W | Lawlor, Debbie A | Smith, George Davey | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Schreiner, Pamela J | Fornage, Myriam | Siscovick, David S | Cushman, Mary | Kumari, Meena | Wareham, Nick J | Verschuren, W M Monique | Redline, Susan | Patel, Sanjay R | Whittaker, John C | Hamsten, Anders | Delaney, Joseph A | Dale, Caroline | Gaunt, Tom R | Wong, Andrew | Kuh, Diana | Hardy, Rebecca | Kathiresan, Sekar | Castillo, Berta A | van der Harst, Pim | Brunner, Eric J | Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne | Marmot, Michael G | Krauss, Ronald M | Tsai, Michael | Coresh, Josef | Hoogeveen, Ronald C | Psaty, Bruce M | Lange, Leslie A | Hakonarson, Hakon | Dudbridge, Frank | Humphries, Steve E | Talmud, Philippa J | Kivimäki, Mika | Timpson, Nicholas J | Langenberg, Claudia | Asselbergs, Folkert W | Voevoda, Mikhail | Bobak, Martin | Pikhart, Hynek | Wilson, James G | Reiner, Alex P | Keating, Brendan J | Hingorani, Aroon D | Sattar, Naveed
Lancet  2015;385(9965):351-361.
Summary
Background
Statins increase the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus. We aimed to assess whether this increase in risk is a consequence of inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR), the intended drug target.
Methods
We used single nucleotide polymorphisms in the HMGCR gene, rs17238484 (for the main analysis) and rs12916 (for a subsidiary analysis) as proxies for HMGCR inhibition by statins. We examined associations of these variants with plasma lipid, glucose, and insulin concentrations; bodyweight; waist circumference; and prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes. Study-specific effect estimates per copy of each LDL-lowering allele were pooled by meta-analysis. These findings were compared with a meta-analysis of new-onset type 2 diabetes and bodyweight change data from randomised trials of statin drugs. The effects of statins in each randomised trial were assessed using meta-analysis.
Findings
Data were available for up to 223 463 individuals from 43 genetic studies. Each additional rs17238484-G allele was associated with a mean 0·06 mmol/L (95% CI 0·05–0·07) lower LDL cholesterol and higher body weight (0·30 kg, 0·18–0·43), waist circumference (0·32 cm, 0·16–0·47), plasma insulin concentration (1·62%, 0·53–2·72), and plasma glucose concentration (0·23%, 0·02–0·44). The rs12916 SNP had similar effects on LDL cholesterol, bodyweight, and waist circumference. The rs17238484-G allele seemed to be associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] per allele 1·02, 95% CI 1·00–1·05); the rs12916-T allele association was consistent (1·06, 1·03–1·09). In 129 170 individuals in randomised trials, statins lowered LDL cholesterol by 0·92 mmol/L (95% CI 0·18–1·67) at 1-year of follow-up, increased bodyweight by 0·24 kg (95% CI 0·10–0·38 in all trials; 0·33 kg, 95% CI 0·24–0·42 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and −0·15 kg, 95% CI −0·39 to 0·08 in intensive-dose vs moderate-dose trials) at a mean of 4·2 years (range 1·9–6·7) of follow-up, and increased the odds of new-onset type 2 diabetes (OR 1·12, 95% CI 1·06–1·18 in all trials; 1·11, 95% CI 1·03–1·20 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and 1·12, 95% CI 1·04–1·22 in intensive-dose vs moderate dose trials).
Interpretation
The increased risk of type 2 diabetes noted with statins is at least partially explained by HMGCR inhibition.
Funding
The funding sources are cited at the end of the paper.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)61183-1
PMCID: PMC4322187  PMID: 25262344
13.  The association of birth order with later body mass index and blood pressure: a comparison between prospective cohort studies from the UK and Brazil 
Background
Previous studies have found greater adiposity and cardiovascular risk in first born children. The causality of this association is not clear. Examining the association in diverse populations may lead to improved insight.
Methods
We examine the association between birth order and body mass index (BMI), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP) in the 2004 Pelotas cohort from southern Brazil and the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) from Bristol, south west England, restricting analysis to families with two children in order to remove confounding by family size.
Results
No consistent differences in BMI, SBP or DBP were observed comparing first and second born children. Within the Pelotas 2004 cohort, first born females were thinner, with lower SBP and DBP; e.g. mean difference in SBP comparing first with second born was -0.979 (95% confidence interval -2.901 to 0.943). In ALSPAC, first born females had higher BMI, SBP and DBP. In both cohorts, associations tended to be in the opposite direction in males, although no statistical evidence for gender interactions was found.
Conclusions
The findings do not support an association between birth order and BMI or blood pressure. Differences to previous studies may be explained by differences in populations and/or confounding by family size in previous studies.
doi:10.1038/ijo.2013.189
PMCID: PMC4024316  PMID: 24097298
ALSPAC; birth order; blood pressure; body mass index; cardiovascular; obesity; Pelotas; siblings
14.  ASSOCIATIONS OF BLOOD PRESSURE CHANGE IN PREGNANCY WITH FETAL GROWTH AND GESTATIONAL AGE AT DELIVERY: FINDINGS FROM A PROSPECTIVE COHORT 
Hypertension  2014;64(1):36-44.
Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy are associated with intrauterine growth restriction and preterm birth. However, the associations of patterns of blood pressure change during pregnancy with these outcomes have not been studied in detail. We studied repeat antenatal blood pressure measurements of 9,697 women in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (median (interquartile range) 10 (9, 11) measurements per woman). Bivariate linear spline models were used to relate blood pressure changes to perinatal outcomes.
Higher systolic, but not diastolic, blood pressure at baseline (8 weeks gestation) and a greater increase in systolic and diastolic blood pressure between 18 and 36 weeks gestation were associated with lower offspring birthweight and being smaller for gestational age in confounder-adjusted models. For example, the mean difference (95% CI) in birthweight per 1 mmHg/week greater increase in systolic blood pressure between 18-30 weeks was −71g (−134, −14) and between 30-36 weeks was −175g (−208, −145). A smaller decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure prior to 18 weeks and a greater increase between 18 and 36 weeks was associated with a shorter gestation (percentage difference in gestational duration per 1 mmHg/week greater increase in systolic blood pressure between 18-30 weeks: −0.60% (−1.01, −0.18) and 30-36 weeks: −1.01% (−1.36, −0.74)). Associations remained strong when restricting to normotensive women. We conclude that greater increases in blood pressure, from the 18-week nadir, are related to reduced fetal growth and shorter gestation even in women whose blood pressure does not cross the threshold for hypertensive disorders of pregnancy.
doi:10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.113.02766
PMCID: PMC4150069  PMID: 24821945
ALSPAC; Birthweight; Blood pressure; Gestational age; Pregnancy
15.  Birthweight and risk markers for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease in childhood: the Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE) 
Diabetologia  2014;58:474-484.
Aims/hypothesis
Lower birthweight (a marker of fetal undernutrition) is associated with higher risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) and could explain ethnic differences in these diseases. We examined associations between birthweight and risk markers for diabetes and CVD in UK-resident white European, South Asian and black African-Caribbean children.
Methods
In a cross-sectional study of risk markers for diabetes and CVD in 9- to 10-year-old children of different ethnic origins, birthweight was obtained from health records and/or parental recall. Associations between birthweight and risk markers were estimated using multilevel linear regression to account for clustering in children from the same school.
Results
Key data were available for 3,744 (66%) singleton study participants. In analyses adjusted for age, sex and ethnicity, birthweight was inversely associated with serum urate and positively associated with systolic BP. After additional height adjustment, lower birthweight (per 100 g) was associated with higher serum urate (0.52%; 95% CI 0.38, 0.66), fasting serum insulin (0.41%; 95% CI 0.08, 0.74), HbA1c (0.04%; 95% CI 0.00, 0.08), plasma glucose (0.06%; 95% CI 0.02, 0.10) and serum triacylglycerol (0.30%; 95% CI 0.09, 0.51) but not with BP or blood cholesterol. Birthweight was lower among children of South Asian (231 g lower; 95% CI 183, 280) and black African-Caribbean origin (81 g lower; 95% CI 30, 132). However, adjustment for birthweight had no effect on ethnic differences in risk markers.
Conclusions/interpretation
Birthweight was inversely associated with urate and with insulin and glycaemia after adjustment for current height. Lower birthweight does not appear to explain emerging ethnic difference in risk markers for diabetes.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3474-7) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.
doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3474-7
PMCID: PMC4320299  PMID: 25520157
Birthweight; Cardiovascular disease; Childhood; Ethnicity; Type 2 diabetes
16.  ADH1B and ADH1C Genotype, Alcohol Consumption and Biomarkers of Liver Function: Findings from a Mendelian Randomization Study in 58,313 European Origin Danes 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(12):e114294.
Background
The effect of alcohol consumption on liver function is difficult to determine because of reporting bias and potential residual confounding. Our aim was to determine this effect using genetic variants to proxy for the unbiased effect of alcohol.
Methods
We used variants in ADH1B and ADH1C genes as instrumental variables (IV) to estimate the causal effect of long-term alcohol consumption on alanine aminotransferase (ALT), γ-glutamyl-transferase (γ-GT), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), bilirubin and prothrombin action. Analyses were undertaken on 58,313 Danes (mean age 56).
Results
In both confounder adjusted multivariable and genetic-IV analyses greater alcohol consumption, amongst those who drank any alcohol, was associated with higher ALT [mean difference per doubling of alcohol consumption: 3.4% (95% CI: 3.1, 3.7) from multivariable analyses and 3.7% (−4.5, 11.9) from genetic-IV analyses] and γ-GT [8.2% (7.8, 8.5) and 6.8% (−2.8, 16.5)]. The point estimates from the two methods were very similar and statistically the results from the two methods were consistent with each other for effects with ALT and γ-GT (both pdiff>0.3). Results from the multivariable analyses suggested a weak inverse association of alcohol with ALP [−1.5% (−1.7, −1.3)], which differed from the strong positive effect found in genetic-IV analyses [11.6% (6.8, 16.4)] (pdiff<0.0001). In both multivariable and genetic-IV analyses associations with bilirubin and protrombin action were weak and close to the null.
Conclusions
Our results suggest that greater consumption of alcohol is related to poorer liver function as indicated by higher ALT, γ-GT and ALP, but not to clotting or bilirubin.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0114294
PMCID: PMC4266606  PMID: 25503943
17.  Stratification by Smoking Status Reveals an Association of CHRNA5-A3-B4 Genotype with Body Mass Index in Never Smokers 
PLoS Genetics  2014;10(12):e1004799.
We previously used a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster associated with heaviness of smoking within smokers to confirm the causal effect of smoking in reducing body mass index (BMI) in a Mendelian randomisation analysis. While seeking to extend these findings in a larger sample we found that this SNP is associated with 0.74% lower body mass index (BMI) per minor allele in current smokers (95% CI -0.97 to -0.51, P = 2.00×10−10), but also unexpectedly found that it was associated with 0.35% higher BMI in never smokers (95% CI +0.18 to +0.52, P = 6.38×10−5). An interaction test confirmed that these estimates differed from each other (P = 4.95×10−13). This difference in effects suggests the variant influences BMI both via pathways unrelated to smoking, and via the weight-reducing effects of smoking. It would therefore be essentially undetectable in an unstratified genome-wide association study of BMI, given the opposite association with BMI in never and current smokers. This demonstrates that novel associations may be obscured by hidden population sub-structure. Stratification on well-characterized environmental factors known to impact on health outcomes may therefore reveal novel genetic associations.
Author Summary
We found that a single nucleotide polymorphism in the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster, which is known to influence smoking heaviness, is associated with lower body mass index (BMI) in current smokers, but higher BMI in never smokers. This difference in effects suggests that the variant influences BMI both via pathways other than smoking, and via the weight-reducing effects of smoking, in opposite directions. The overall effect on BMI would therefore be undetectable in an unstratified genome-wide association study, indicating that novel associations may be obscured by hidden population sub-structure.
doi:10.1371/journal.pgen.1004799
PMCID: PMC4256159  PMID: 25474695
18.  Grip Strength across the Life Course: Normative Data from Twelve British Studies 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(12):e113637.
Introduction
Epidemiological studies have shown that weaker grip strength in later life is associated with disability, morbidity, and mortality. Grip strength is a key component of the sarcopenia and frailty phenotypes and yet it is unclear how individual measurements should be interpreted. Our objective was to produce cross-sectional centile values for grip strength across the life course. A secondary objective was to examine the impact of different aspects of measurement protocol.
Methods
We combined 60,803 observations from 49,964 participants (26,687 female) of 12 general population studies in Great Britain. We produced centile curves for ages 4 to 90 and investigated the prevalence of weak grip, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean. We carried out a series of sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of dynamometer type and measurement position (seated or standing).
Results
Our results suggested three overall periods: an increase to peak in early adult life, maintenance through to midlife, and decline from midlife onwards. Males were on average stronger than females from adolescence onwards: males’ peak median grip was 51 kg between ages 29 and 39, compared to 31 kg in females between ages 26 and 42. Weak grip strength, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean, increased sharply with age, reaching a prevalence of 23% in males and 27% in females by age 80. Sensitivity analyses suggested our findings were robust to differences in dynamometer type and measurement position.
Conclusion
This is the first study to provide normative data for grip strength across the life course. These centile values have the potential to inform the clinical assessment of grip strength which is recognised as an important part of the identification of people with sarcopenia and frailty.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113637
PMCID: PMC4256164  PMID: 25474696
19.  Haptoglobin Duplicon, Hemoglobin, and Vitamin C: Analyses in the British Women's Heart and Health Study and Caerphilly Prospective Study 
Disease Markers  2014;2014:529456.
Background. Haptoglobin acts as an antioxidant by limiting peroxidative tissue damage by free hemoglobin. The haptoglobin gene allele Hp2 comprises a 1.7 kb partial duplication. Relative to allele Hp1, Hp2 carriers form protein multimers, suboptimal for hemoglobin scavenging. Objective. To examine the association of haptoglobin genotype with a range of phenotypes, with emphasis on vitamin C and hemoglobin levels. Methods. We applied a quantitative PCR assay for the duplication junction to two population cohorts including 2747 British women and 1198 British men. We examined the association of haptoglobin duplicon copy number with hemoglobin and vitamin C and used the copy number to complete a phenome scan. Results. Hemoglobin concentrations were greater in those with Hp2,2 genotype, in women only (Hp1,1 13.45 g/dL, Hp1,2 13.49 g/dL, Hp2,2 13.61 g/dL; P = 0.002), though statistically there was no evidence of a difference between the sexes (z value = 1.2, P = 0.24). Haptoglobin genotype was not associated with vitamin C or any other phenotype in either cohort. Conclusions. Our results do not support association of haptoglobin genotype with vitamin C or with other phenotypes measured in two population cohorts. The apparent association between haptoglobin genotype and hemoglobin in the women's cohort merits further investigation.
doi:10.1155/2014/529456
PMCID: PMC4265517  PMID: 25525287
20.  Variation in the SLC23A1 gene does not influence cardiometabolic outcomes to the extent expected given its association with l-ascorbic acid1234 
Background: Observational studies showed that circulating l-ascorbic acid (vitamin C) is inversely associated with cardiometabolic traits. However, these studies were susceptible to confounding and reverse causation.
Objectives: We assessed the relation between l-ascorbic acid and 10 cardiometabolic traits by using a single nucleotide polymorphism in the solute carrier family 23 member 1 (SLC23A1) gene (rs33972313) associated with circulating l-ascorbic acid concentrations. The observed association between rs33972313 and cardiometabolic outcomes was compared with that expected given the rs33972313-l-ascorbic acid and l-ascorbic acid–outcome associations.
Design: A meta-analysis was performed in the following 5 independent studies: the British Women's Heart and Health Study (n = 1833), the MIDSPAN study (n = 1138), the Ten Towns study (n = 1324), the British Regional Heart Study (n = 2521), and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (n = 3737).
Results: With the use of a meta-analysis of observational estimates, inverse associations were shown between l-ascorbic acid and systolic blood pressure, triglycerides, and the waist-hip ratio [the strongest of which was the waist-hip ratio (−0.13-SD change; 95% CI: −0.20-, −0.07-SD change; P = 0.0001) per SD increase in l-ascorbic acid], and a positive association was shown with high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. The variation at rs33972313 was associated with a 0.18-SD (95% CI: 0.10-, 0.25-SD; P = 3.34 × 10−6) increase in l-ascorbic acid per effect allele. There was no evidence of a relation between the variation at rs33972313 and any cardiometabolic outcome. Although observed estimates were not statistically different from expected associations between rs33972313 and cardiometabolic outcomes, estimates for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, glucose, and body mass index were in the opposite direction to those expected.
Conclusions: The nature of the genetic association exploited in this study led to limited statistical application, but despite this, when all cardiometabolic traits were assessed, there was no evidence of any trend supporting a protective role of l-ascorbic acid. In the context of existing work, these results add to the suggestion that observational relations between l-ascorbic acid and cardiometabolic health may be attributable to confounding and reverse causation.
doi:10.3945/ajcn.114.092981
PMCID: PMC4266888  PMID: 25527764
l-ascorbic acid; cardiometabolic traits; confounding; genetic variants; reverse causation
21.  Modelling Childhood Growth Using Fractional Polynomials and Linear Splines 
Annals of Nutrition & Metabolism  2014;65(3):129-138.
Background
There is increasing emphasis in medical research on modelling growth across the life course and identifying factors associated with growth. Here, we demonstrate multilevel models for childhood growth either as a smooth function (using fractional polynomials) or a set of connected linear phases (using linear splines).
Methods
We related parental social class to height from birth to 10 years of age in 5,588 girls from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Multilevel fractional polynomial modelling identified the best-fitting model as being of degree 2 with powers of the square root of age, and the square root of age multiplied by the log of age. The multilevel linear spline model identified knot points at 3, 12 and 36 months of age.
Results
Both the fractional polynomial and linear spline models show an initially fast rate of growth, which slowed over time. Both models also showed that there was a disparity in length between manual and non-manual social class infants at birth, which decreased in magnitude until approximately 1 year of age and then increased.
Conclusions
Multilevel fractional polynomials give a more realistic smooth function, and linear spline models are easily interpretable. Each can be used to summarise individual growth trajectories and their relationships with individual-level exposures.
doi:10.1159/000362695
PMCID: PMC4264511  PMID: 25413651
ALSPAC; Growth; Linear spline models; Longitudinal study; Multilevel models; Repeated measures
22.  The association of maternal prenatal psychosocial stress with vascular function in the child at age 10–11 years: findings from the Avon longitudinal study of parents and children 
Objective
To investigate whether (1) maternal psychosocial stress (depression/anxiety) during pregnancy is associated with offspring vascular function and (2) whether any association differs depending on the gestational timing of exposure to stress. We also investigated whether any association is likely to be due to intrauterine mechanisms by (3) comparing with the association of paternal stress with offspring vascular function and (4) examining whether any prenatal association is explained by maternal postnatal stress.
Methods and results
Associations were examined in a UK birth cohort, with offspring outcomes (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, SBP and DBP, endothelial function assessed by brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation (FMD); arterial stiffness assessed by carotid to radial pulse wave velocity (PWV), brachial artery distensibility (DC), and brachial artery diameter (BD) assessed at age 10–11 years (n = 4318). Maternal depressive symptoms and anxiety were assessed at 18 and 32 weeks gestation and 8 months postnatally. Paternal symptoms were assessed at week 19. With the exception of DBP and BD, there were no associations of maternal depressive symptoms with any of the vascular outcomes. Maternal depressive and anxiety symptoms were associated with lower offspring DBP and wider BD, though the latter attenuated to the null with adjustment for confounding factors. Paternal symptoms were not associated with offspring outcomes. Maternal postnatal depressive symptoms were associated with lower offspring SBP.
Conclusions
We found no evidence to support the hypothesis that maternal stress during pregnancy adversely affects offspring vascular function at age 10–12 years via intrauterine mechanisms.
doi:10.1177/2047487313486039
PMCID: PMC4230381  PMID: 23559536
Arterial stiffness; blood pressure; child; developmental origins of health and disease; fetal development; pregnancy; psychological; stress
23.  The emergence of proton nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics in the cardiovascular arena as viewed from a clinical perspective 
Atherosclerosis  2014;237(1):287-300.
The ability to phenotype metabolic profiles in serum has increased substantially in recent years with the advent of metabolomics. Metabolomics is the study of the metabolome, defined as those molecules with an atomic mass less than 1.5 kDa. There are two main metabolomics methods: mass spectrometry (MS) and proton nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) spectroscopy, each with its respective benefits and limitations. MS has greater sensitivity and so can detect many more metabolites. However, its cost (especially when heavy labelled internal standards are required for absolute quantitation) and quality control is sub-optimal for large cohorts. 1H NMR is less sensitive but sample preparation is generally faster and analysis times shorter, resulting in markedly lower analysis costs. 1H NMR is robust, reproducible and can provide absolute quantitation of many metabolites. Of particular relevance to cardio-metabolic disease is the ability of 1H NMR to provide detailed quantitative data on amino acids, fatty acids and other metabolites as well as lipoprotein subparticle concentrations and size. Early epidemiological studies suggest promise, however, this is an emerging field and more data is required before we can determine the clinical utility of these measures to improve disease prediction and treatment.
This review describes the theoretical basis of 1H NMR; compares MS and 1H NMR and provides a tabular overview of recent 1H NMR-based research findings in the atherosclerosis field, describing the design and scope of studies conducted to date. 1H NMR metabolomics-CVD related research is emerging, however further large, robustly conducted prospective, genetic and intervention studies are needed to advance research on CVD risk prediction and to identify causal pathways amenable to intervention.
Highlights
•1H NMR metabolomics is being increasingly applied to large cohort studies.•Studies have identified potentially novel lipoprotein and metabolite predictors for CVD.•Potential exists for the use of metabolomics in cardiovascular clinical practice.•Current findings are too preliminary to translate into clinical recommendations.•Further large scale studies are now needed to advance the field in a robust manner.
doi:10.1016/j.atherosclerosis.2014.09.024
PMCID: PMC4232363  PMID: 25299963
Nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR); Metabolomics; Cardiovascular disease (CVD); Lipoprotein; Mass spectrometry (MS); Biomarkers; Advanced lipoprotein testing (ALP)
24.  Pregnancy glycaemia and cord-blood levels of insulin and leptin in Pakistani and white British mother–offspring pairs: findings from a prospective pregnancy cohort 
Diabetologia  2014;57(12):2492-2500.
Aims/hypothesis
To determine the extent to which gestational fasting and postload levels of glucose explain differences in infant fat mass between UK-born Pakistani and white British infants.
Methods
Analyses were undertaken in a prospective pregnancy cohort study of 1,415 women and their singleton live-born infants (629 white British and 786 Pakistani). Infant fat mass was assessed by cord-blood leptin levels and fetal insulin secretion by cord-blood insulin levels. Maternal OGTTs were completed at 26–28 weeks of gestation.
Results
Pakistani women had higher fasting and postload glucose levels and greater incidence of gestational diabetes than white British women. Higher fasting and postload glucose levels were associated with higher cord-blood levels of insulin and leptin in all participants, irrespective of ethnicity. Cord-blood leptin levels were 16% (95% CI 6, 26) higher in Pakistani than in white British infants. After adjustment for fasting glucose levels, this difference attenuated to 7% (−3, 16), and with additional adjustment for cord-blood insulin levels it attenuated further to 5% (−4, 14). Path analyses supported the hypothesis that fasting glucose levels mediate the relationship of Pakistani ethnicity to greater fat mass at birth, as measured by cord-blood leptin levels; on average, 19% of this mediation involved fetal insulin secretion. Postload glucose levels did not act as an important mediator of ethnic differences in cord-blood leptin levels. Results were very similar when 130 women with gestational diabetes were removed.
Conclusions/interpretation
These novel findings suggest a role of maternal pregnancy glycaemia in mediating differences in fat mass between Pakistani and white British infants.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3386-6) contains peer-reviewed but unedited supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.
doi:10.1007/s00125-014-3386-6
PMCID: PMC4218974  PMID: 25273345
Birthweight; Cord-blood insulin; Cord-blood leptin; Epidemiology; Ethnicity; Gestational diabetes; Glucose
25.  Genome-wide association study identifies loci affecting blood copper, selenium and zinc 
Human Molecular Genetics  2013;22(19):3998-4006.
Genetic variation affecting absorption, distribution or excretion of essential trace elements may lead to health effects related to sub-clinical deficiency. We have tested for allelic effects of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on blood copper, selenium and zinc in a genome-wide association study using two adult cohorts from Australia and the UK. Participants were recruited in Australia from twins and their families and in the UK from pregnant women. We measured erythrocyte Cu, Se and Zn (Australian samples) or whole blood Se (UK samples) using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Genotyping was performed with Illumina chips and >2.5 m SNPs were imputed from HapMap data. Genome-wide significant associations were found for each element. For Cu, there were two loci on chromosome 1 (most significant SNPs rs1175550, P = 5.03 × 10−10, and rs2769264, P = 2.63 × 10−20); for Se, a locus on chromosome 5 was significant in both cohorts (combined P = 9.40 × 10−28 at rs921943); and for Zn three loci on chromosomes 8, 15 and X showed significant results (rs1532423, P = 6.40 × 10−12; rs2120019, P = 1.55 × 10−18; and rs4826508, P = 1.40 × 10−12, respectively). The Se locus covers three genes involved in metabolism of sulphur-containing amino acids and potentially of the analogous Se compounds; the chromosome 8 locus for Zn contains multiple genes for the Zn-containing enzyme carbonic anhydrase. Where potentially relevant genes were identified, they relate to metabolism of the element (Se) or to the presence at high concentration of a metal-containing protein (Cu).
doi:10.1093/hmg/ddt239
PMCID: PMC3766178  PMID: 23720494

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