A mendelian randomization study based on data from multiple cohorts conducted by Karani Santhanakrishnan Vimaleswaran and colleagues re-examines the causal nature of the relationship between vitamin D levels and obesity.

Background

Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis.

Methods and Findings

We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects.

Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10−27). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10−62) and 25(OH)D (−0.06% [95% CI −0.10 to −0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10−57 for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: −4.2 [95% CI −7.1 to −1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores).

Conclusions

On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Editors' Summary

Background

Obesity—having an unhealthy amount of body fat—is increasing worldwide. In the US, for example, a third of the adult population is now obese. Obesity is defined as having a body mass index (BMI, an indicator of body fat calculated by dividing a person's weight in kilograms by their height in meters squared) of more than 30.0 kg/m2. Although there is a genetic contribution to obesity, people generally become obese by consuming food and drink that contains more energy than they need for their daily activities. Thus, obesity can be prevented by having a healthy diet and exercising regularly. Compared to people with a healthy weight, obese individuals have an increased risk of developing diabetes, heart disease and stroke, and tend to die younger. They also have a higher risk of vitamin D deficiency, another increasingly common public health concern. Vitamin D, which is essential for healthy bones as well as other functions, is made in the skin after exposure to sunlight but can also be obtained through the diet and through supplements.

Why Was This Study Done?

Observational studies cannot prove that obesity causes vitamin D deficiency because obese individuals may share other characteristics that reduce their circulating 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D] levels (referred to as confounding). Moreover, observational studies cannot indicate whether the larger vitamin D storage capacity of obese individuals (vitamin D is stored in fatty tissues) lowers their 25(OH)D levels or whether 25(OH)D levels influence fat accumulation (reverse causation). If obesity causes vitamin D deficiency, monitoring and treating vitamin D deficiency might alleviate some of the adverse health effects of obesity. Conversely, if low vitamin D levels cause obesity, encouraging people to take vitamin D supplements might help to control the obesity epidemic. Here, the researchers use bi-directional “Mendelian randomization” to examine the direction and causality of the relationship between BMI and 25(OH)D. In Mendelian randomization, causality is inferred from associations between genetic variants that mimic the influence of a modifiable environmental exposure and the outcome of interest. Because gene variants do not change over time and are inherited randomly, they are not prone to confounding and are free from reverse causation. Thus, if a lower vitamin D status leads to obesity, genetic variants associated with lower 25(OH)D concentrations should be associated with higher BMI, and if obesity leads to a lower vitamin D status, then genetic variants associated with higher BMI should be associated with lower 25(OH)D concentrations.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

The researchers created a “BMI allele score” based on 12 BMI-related gene variants and two “25(OH)D allele scores,” which are based on gene variants that affect either 25(OH)D synthesis or breakdown. Using information on up to 42,024 participants from 21 studies, the researchers showed that the BMI allele score was associated with both BMI and with 25(OH)D levels among the study participants. Based on this information, they calculated that each 10% increase in BMI will lead to a 4.2% decrease in 25(OH)D concentrations. By contrast, although both 25(OH)D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D levels, neither score was associated with BMI. This lack of an association between 25(OH)D allele scores and obesity was confirmed using data from more than 100,000 individuals involved in 46 studies that has been collected by the GIANT (Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits) consortium.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These findings suggest that a higher BMI leads to a lower vitamin D status whereas any effects of low vitamin D status on BMI are likely to be small. That is, these findings provide evidence for obesity as a causal factor in the development of vitamin D deficiency but not for vitamin D deficiency as a causal factor in the development of obesity. These findings suggest that population-level interventions to reduce obesity should lead to a reduction in the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency and highlight the importance of monitoring and treating vitamin D deficiency as a means of alleviating the adverse influences of obesity on health.

Additional Information

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001383.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information on all aspects of overweight and obesity (in English and Spanish); a data brief provides information about the vitamin D status of the US population

The World Health Organization provides information on obesity (in several languages)

The UK National Health Service Choices website provides detailed information about obesity and a link to a personal story about losing weight; it also provides information about vitamin D

The International Obesity Taskforce provides information about the global obesity epidemic

The US Department of Agriculture's ChooseMyPlate.gov website provides a personal healthy eating plan; the Weight-control Information Network is an information service provided for the general public and health professionals by the US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (in English and Spanish)

The US Office of Dietary Supplements provides information about vitamin D (in English and Spanish)

MedlinePlus has links to further information about obesity and about vitamin D (in English and Spanish)

Wikipedia has a page on Mendelian randomization (note: Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)

Overview and details of the collaborative large-scale genetic association study (D-CarDia) provide information about vitamin D and the risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes and related traits

Protein glycosylation is a ubiquitous modification that affects the structure and function of proteins. Our recent genome wide association study identified transcription factor HNF1A as an important regulator of plasma protein glycosylation. To evaluate the potential impact of epigenetic regulation of HNF1A on protein glycosylation we analyzed CpG methylation in 810 individuals. The association between methylation of four CpG sites and the composition of plasma and IgG glycomes was analyzed. Several statistically significant associations were observed between HNF1A methylation and plasma glycans, while there were no significant associations with IgG glycans. The most consistent association with HNF1A methylation was observed with the increase in the proportion of highly branched glycans in the plasma N-glycome. The hypothesis that inactivation of HNF1A promotes branching of glycans was supported by the analysis of plasma N-glycomes in 61 patients with inactivating mutations in HNF1A, where the increase in plasma glycan branching was also observed. This study represents the first demonstration of epigenetic regulation of plasma glycome composition, suggesting a potential mechanism by which epigenetic deregulation of the glycome may contribute to disease development.

Glycosylation of immunoglobulin G (IgG) influences IgG effector function by modulating binding to Fc receptors. To identify genetic loci associated with IgG glycosylation, we quantitated N-linked IgG glycans using two approaches. After isolating IgG from human plasma, we performed 77 quantitative measurements of N-glycosylation using ultra-performance liquid chromatography (UPLC) in 2,247 individuals from four European discovery populations. In parallel, we measured IgG N-glycans using MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry (MS) in a replication cohort of 1,848 Europeans. Meta-analysis of genome-wide association study (GWAS) results identified 9 genome-wide significant loci (P<2.27×10−9) in the discovery analysis and two of the same loci (B4GALT1 and MGAT3) in the replication cohort. Four loci contained genes encoding glycosyltransferases (ST6GAL1, B4GALT1, FUT8, and MGAT3), while the remaining 5 contained genes that have not been previously implicated in protein glycosylation (IKZF1, IL6ST-ANKRD55, ABCF2-SMARCD3, SUV420H1, and SMARCB1-DERL3). However, most of them have been strongly associated with autoimmune and inflammatory conditions (e.g., systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis, ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, diabetes type 1, multiple sclerosis, Graves' disease, celiac disease, nodular sclerosis) and/or haematological cancers (acute lymphoblastic leukaemia, Hodgkin lymphoma, and multiple myeloma). Follow-up functional experiments in haplodeficient Ikzf1 knock-out mice showed the same general pattern of changes in IgG glycosylation as identified in the meta-analysis. As IKZF1 was associated with multiple IgG N-glycan traits, we explored biomarker potential of affected N-glycans in 101 cases with SLE and 183 matched controls and demonstrated substantial discriminative power in a ROC-curve analysis (area under the curve = 0.842). Our study shows that it is possible to identify new loci that control glycosylation of a single plasma protein using GWAS. The results may also provide an explanation for the reported pleiotropy and antagonistic effects of loci involved in autoimmune diseases and haematological cancer.

Author Summary

After analysing glycans attached to human immunoglobulin G in 4,095 individuals, we performed the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) of the glycome of an individual protein. Nine genetic loci were found to associate with glycans with genome-wide significance. Of these, four were enzymes that directly participate in IgG glycosylation, thus the observed associations were biologically founded. The remaining five genetic loci were not previously implicated in protein glycosylation, but the most of them have been reported to be relevant for autoimmune and inflammatory conditions and/or haematological cancers. A particularly interesting gene, IKZF1 was found to be associated with multiple IgG N-glycans. This gene has been implicated in numerous diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We analysed N-glycans in 101 cases with SLE and 183 matched controls and demonstrated their substantial biomarker potential. Our study shows that it is possible to identify new loci that control glycosylation of a single plasma protein using GWAS. Our results may also provide an explanation for opposite effects of some genes in autoimmune diseases and haematological cancer.

We have used targeted genomic sequencing of high-complexity DNA pools based on long-range PCR and deep DNA sequencing by the SOLiD technology. The method was used for sequencing of 286 kb from four chromosomal regions with quantitative trait loci (QTL) influencing blood plasma lipid and uric acid levels in DNA pools of 500 individuals from each of five European populations. The method shows very good precision in estimating allele frequencies as compared with individual genotyping of SNPs (r2=0.95, P<10−16). Validation shows that the method is able to identify novel SNPs and estimate their frequency in high-complexity DNA pools. In our five populations, 17% of all SNPs and 61% of structural variants are not available in the public databases. A large fraction of the novel variants show a limited geographic distribution, with 62% of the novel SNPs and 59% of novel structural variants being detected in only one of the populations. The large number of population-specific novel SNPs underscores the need for comprehensive sequencing of local populations in order to identify the causal variants of human traits.

Background

The burden of non–communicable diseases is growing, particularly in developing countries. The greatest economic burden is due to dementia, the prevalence of which is rising with increasing longevity. In Africa, where the rate of increase of elderly persons is the fastest in the world, dementia is normally dismissed as a part of normal ageing. The lack of awareness means that many patients are suffering undiagnosed. This review aims to assess the information on the prevalence of dementia in Africa in order to estimate the current burden.

Methods

A parallel search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health limited to post–1980 found only 10 relevant studies. Data on prevalence and risk factors were extracted and analysed. We modelled the available information and used the UN population figures for Africa to determine the age–specific and overall burden of dementia.

Results

The overall prevalence of dementia in adults older than 50 years in Africa was estimated to be about 2.4%, which translates to 2.76 million people living with a disease in 2010. About 2.10 millions of them live in Sub–Saharan Africa. Prevalence was the highest among females aged 80 and over (19.7%) and there was little variation between regions. Alzheimer disease was the most prevalent cause of dementia (57.1%) followed by vascular dementia (26.9%). The main risk factors were increasing age, female sex and cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions

Information on dementia prevalence in Africa is very limited. Further research will not only provide a more reliable estimate of prevalence, and consequently the burden of disease, but will also raise awareness of the problem. This is critical in promoting help–seeking behaviour and generating the political commitment to make dementia a public health priority in Africa.

Background

The aim of this study was to populate the Equitable Impact Sensitive Tool (EQUIST) framework with all necessary data and conduct the first implementation of EQUIST in studying cost–effectiveness of community case management of childhood pneumonia in 5 low– and middle–income countries with relation to equity impact.

Methods

Wealth quintile–specific data were gathered or modelled for all contributory determinants of the EQUIST framework, namely: under–five mortality rate, cost of intervention, intervention effectiveness, current coverage of intervention and relative disease distribution. These were then combined statistically to calculate the final outcome of the EQUIST model for community case management of childhood pneumonia: US$ per life saved, in several different approaches to scaling–up.

Results

The current ‘mainstream’ approach to scaling–up of interventions is never the most cost–effective. Community–case management appears to strongly support an ‘equity–promoting’ approach to scaling–up, displaying the highest levels of cost–effectiveness in interventions targeted at the poorest quintile of each study country, although absolute cost differences vary by context.

Conclusions

The relationship between cost–effectiveness and equity impact is complex, with many determinants to consider. One important way to increase intervention cost–effectiveness in poorer quintiles is to improve the efficiency and quality of delivery. More data are needed in all areas to increase the accuracy of EQUIST–based estimates.

Background

Nearly two–thirds of annual mortality worldwide is attributable to non–communicable diseases (NCDs), with 70% estimated to occur in low– and middle–income countries (LMIC). Colorectal cancer (CRC) accounts for over 600 000 deaths annually, but data concerning cancer rates in LMIC is very poor. This study analyses the data available to produce an estimate of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Sub–Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

Data for this analysis came from two main sources: a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health which found 15 published data sets, and an additional 42 unpublished data sets which were sourced from the IARC and individual cancer registries. Data for case rates by age and sex, as well as population denominators were extracted and analysed to produce an estimate of incidence.

Results

The crude incidence of CRC in SSA for both sexes was found to be 4.04 per 100 000 population (4.38 for men and 3.69 for women). Incidence increased with age with the highest rates in Southern Africa, particularly in South Africa. The rates of CRC in SSA were much lower than those reported for high–income countries.

Conclusion

Few health services in SSA are equipped to provide timely diagnosis and treatment of cancer in SSA. In addition, data collection systems are weak, meaning that the available statistics may underestimate the burden of disease. In order to improve health care services it is vital that accurate measurements of disease burden are available to policy makers.

Background

In Scotland colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer and a leading cause of cancer death. Epidemiological studies have reported conflicting associations between statins and CRC risk and there is one published report of the association between statins and CRC survival.

Methods

Analysis was carried out on 309 cases and 294 controls from the Scottish Study of Colorectal Cancer (SOCCS). Cox’s hazard and logistic regression models were applied to investigate the association between statin use and CRC risk and survival.

Results

In an adjusted logistic regression model, statins were found to show a statistically significant association for three of the four statin variables and were found to not show a statistically significant association with either all-cause or CRC-specific mortality (OR 0.49; 95%CI 0.49-1.36; p-value = 0.17 and OR 0.33; 95%CI 0.08-1.35; P-value = 0.12, respectively).

Conclusion

We did find a statistically significant association between statin intake and CRC risk but not statin intake and CRC-specific mortality. However, the study was insufficiently powered and larger scale studies may be advisable.

The limited proportion of complex trait variance identified in genome-wide association studies may reflect the limited power of single SNP analyses to detect either rare causative alleles or those of small effect. Motivated by studies that demonstrate that loci contributing to trait variation may contain a number of different alleles, we have developed an analytical approach termed Regional Genomic Relationship Mapping that, like linkage-based family methods, integrates variance contributed by founder gametes within a pedigree. This approach takes advantage of very distant (and unrecorded) relationships, and this greatly increases the power of the method, compared with traditional pedigree-based linkage analyses. By integrating variance contributed by founder gametes in the population, our approach provides an estimate of the Regional Heritability attributable to a small genomic region (e.g. 100 SNP window covering ca. 1 Mb of DNA in a 300000 SNP GWAS) and has the power to detect regions containing multiple alleles that individually contribute too little variance to be detectable by GWAS as well as regions with single common GWAS-detectable SNPs. We use genome-wide SNP array data to obtain both a genome-wide relationship matrix and regional relationship (“identity by state" or IBS) matrices for sequential regions across the genome. We then estimate a heritability for each region sequentially in our genome-wide scan. We demonstrate by simulation and with real data that, when compared to traditional (“individual SNP") GWAS, our method uncovers new loci that explain additional trait variation. We analysed data from three Southern European populations and from Orkney for exemplar traits – serum uric acid concentration and height. We show that regional heritability estimates are correlated with results from genome-wide association analysis but can capture more of the genetic variance segregating in the population and identify additional trait loci.

Numerous genetic loci influence systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in Europeans 1-3. We now report genome-wide association studies of pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). In discovery (N=74,064) and follow-up studies (N=48,607), we identified at genome-wide significance (P= 2.7×10-8 to P=2.3×10-13) four novel PP loci (at 4q12 near CHIC2/PDGFRAI, 7q22.3 near PIK3CG, 8q24.12 in NOV, 11q24.3 near ADAMTS-8), two novel MAP loci (3p21.31 in MAP4, 10q25.3 near ADRB1) and one locus associated with both traits (2q24.3 near FIGN) which has recently been associated with SBP in east Asians. For three of the novel PP signals, the estimated effect for SBP was opposite to that for DBP, in contrast to the majority of common SBP- and DBP-associated variants which show concordant effects on both traits. These findings indicate novel genetic mechanisms underlying blood pressure variation, including pathways that may differentially influence SBP and DBP.

To identify novel loci for age at natural menopause, we performed a meta-analysis of 22 genome-wide association studies in 38,968 women of European descent, with replication in up to 14,435 women. In addition to four known loci, we identified 13 new age at natural menopause loci (P < 5 × 10−8). The new loci included genes implicated in DNA repair (EXO1, HELQ, UIMC1, FAM175A, FANCI, TLK1, POLG, PRIM1) and immune function (IL11, NLRP11, BAT2). Gene-set enrichment pathway analyses using the full GWAS dataset identified exodeoxyribonuclease, NFκB signalling and mitochondrial dysfunction as biological processes related to timing of menopause.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) aim to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) associated with trait variation. However, due to the large number of tests, standard analysis techniques impose highly stringent significance thresholds, leaving potentially associated SNPs undetected, and much of the trait genetic variation unexplained. Pathway- and network-based methodologies applied to GWAS aim to detect associations missed by standard single-marker approaches. The complex and non-random architecture of the genome makes it a challenge to derive an appropriate testing framework for such methodologies. We developed a rapid and simple permutation approach that uses GWAS SNP association results to establish the significance of pathway associations while accounting for the linkage disequilibrium structure of SNPs and the clustering of functionally related elements in the genome. All SNPs used in the GWAS are placed in a “circular genome” according to their location. Then the complete set of SNP association P values are permuted by rotation with respect to the genomic locations of the SNPs. Once these “simulated” P values are assigned, the joint gene P values are calculated using Fisher’s combination test, and the association of pathways is tested using the hypergeometric test. The circular genomic permutation approach was applied to a human genome-wide association dataset. The data consists of 719 individuals from the ORCADES study genotyped for ∼300,000 SNPs and measured for 51 traits ranging from physical to biochemical measurements. KEGG pathways (n = 225) were used as the sets of pathways to be tested. Our results demonstrate that the circular genomic permutations provide robust association P values. The non-permuted hypergeometric analysis generates ∼1400 pathway-trait combination results with an association P value more significant than P ≤ 0.05, whereas applying circular genomic permutation reduces the number of significant results to a more credible 40% of that value. The circular permutation software (“genomicper”) is available as an R package at http://cran.r-project.org/.

We surveyed gene–gene interactions (epistasis) in human body mass index (BMI) in four European populations (n<1200) via exhaustive pair-wise genome scans where interactions were computed as F ratios by testing a linear regression model fitting two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with interactions against the one without. Before the association tests, BMI was corrected for sex and age, normalised and adjusted for relatedness. Neither single SNPs nor SNP interactions were genome-wide significant in either cohort based on the consensus threshold (P=5.0E−08) and a Bonferroni corrected threshold (P=1.1E−12), respectively. Next we compared sub genome-wide significant SNP interactions (P<5.0E−08) across cohorts to identify common epistatic signals, where SNPs were annotated to genes to test for gene ontology (GO) enrichment. Among the epistatic genes contributing to the commonly enriched GO terms, 19 were shared across study cohorts of which 15 are previously published genome-wide association loci, including CDH13 (cadherin 13) associated with height and SORCS2 (sortilin-related VPS10 domain containing receptor 2) associated with circulating insulin-like growth factor 1 and binding protein 3. Interactions between the 19 shared epistatic genes and those involving BMI candidate loci (P<5.0E−08) were tested across cohorts and found eight replicated at the SNP level (P<0.05) in at least one cohort, which were further tested and showed limited replication in a separate European population (n>5000). We conclude that genome-wide analysis of epistasis in multiple populations is an effective approach to provide new insights into the genetic regulation of BMI but requires additional efforts to confirm the findings.

The male-to-female sex ratio at birth is constant across world populations with an average of 1.06 (106 male to 100 female live births) for populations of European descent. The sex ratio is considered to be affected by numerous biological and environmental factors and to have a heritable component. The aim of this study was to investigate the presence of common allele modest effects at autosomal and chromosome X variants that could explain the observed sex ratio at birth. We conducted a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis across 51 studies, comprising overall 114 863 individuals (61 094 women and 53 769 men) of European ancestry and 2 623 828 common (minor allele frequency >0.05) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Allele frequencies were compared between men and women for directly-typed and imputed variants within each study. Forward-time simulations for unlinked, neutral, autosomal, common loci were performed under the demographic model for European populations with a fixed sex ratio and a random mating scheme to assess the probability of detecting significant allele frequency differences. We do not detect any genome-wide significant (P < 5 × 10−8) common SNP differences between men and women in this well-powered meta-analysis. The simulated data provided results entirely consistent with these findings. This large-scale investigation across ∼115 000 individuals shows no detectable contribution from common genetic variants to the observed skew in the sex ratio. The absence of sex-specific differences is useful in guiding genetic association study design, for example when using mixed controls for sex-biased traits.

We have previously identified several colorectal cancer (CRC)-associated polymorphisms using genome-wide association (GWA) analysis. We sought to fine-map the location of the functional variants for three of these regions at 8q23.3 (EIF3H), 16q22.1 (CDH1/CDH3) and 19q13.11 (RHPN2). We genotyped two case–control sets at high density in the selected regions and used existing data from four other case–control sets, comprising a total of 9328 CRC cases and 10 480 controls. To improve marker density, we imputed genotypes from the 1000 Genomes Project and Hapmap3 data sets. All three regions contained smaller areas in which a cluster of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed clearly stronger association signals than surrounding SNPs, allowing us to assign those areas as the most likely location of the disease-associated functional variant. Further fine-mapping within those areas was generally unhelpful in identifying the functional variation based on strengths of association. However, functional annotation suggested a relatively small number of functional SNPs, including some with potential regulatory function at 8q23.3 and 16q22.1 and a non-synonymous SNP in RPHN2. Interestingly, the expression quantitative trait locus browser showed a number of highly associated SNP alleles correlated with mRNA expression levels not of EIF3H and CDH1 or CDH3, but of UTP23 and ZFP90, respectively. In contrast, none of the top SNPs within these regions was associated with transcript levels at EIF3H, CDH1 or CDH3. Our post-GWA study highlights benefits of fine-mapping of common disease variants in combination with publicly available data sets. In addition, caution should be exercised when assigning functionality to candidate genes in regions discovered through GWA analysis.

Serum concentrations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides (TGs) and total cholesterol (TC) are important heritable risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Although genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of circulating lipid levels have identified numerous loci, a substantial portion of the heritability of these traits remains unexplained. Evidence of unexplained genetic variance can be detected by combining multiple independent markers into additive genetic risk scores. Such polygenic scores, constructed using results from the ENGAGE Consortium GWAS on serum lipids, were applied to predict lipid levels in an independent population-based study, the Rotterdam Study-II (RS-II). We additionally tested for evidence of a shared genetic basis for different lipid phenotypes. Finally, the polygenic score approach was used to identify an alternative genome-wide significance threshold before pathway analysis and those results were compared with those based on the classical genome-wide significance threshold. Our study provides evidence suggesting that many loci influencing circulating lipid levels remain undiscovered. Cross-prediction models suggested a small overlap between the polygenic backgrounds involved in determining LDL-C, HDL-C and TG levels. Pathway analysis utilizing the best polygenic score for TC uncovered extra information compared with using only genome-wide significant loci. These results suggest that the genetic architecture of circulating lipids involves a number of undiscovered variants with very small effects, and that increasing GWAS sample sizes will enable the identification of novel variants that regulate lipid levels.

Accurate knowledge of haplotypes, the combination of alleles co-residing on a single copy of a chromosome, enables powerful gene mapping and sequence imputation methods. Since humans are diploid, haplotypes must be derived from genotypes by a phasing process. In this study, we present a new computational model for haplotype phasing based on pairwise sharing of haplotypes inferred to be Identical-By-Descent (IBD). We apply the Bayesian network based model in a new phasing algorithm, called systematic long-range phasing (SLRP), that can capitalize on the close genetic relationships in isolated founder populations, and show with simulated and real genome-wide genotype data that SLRP substantially reduces the rate of phasing errors compared to previous phasing algorithms. Furthermore, the method accurately identifies regions of IBD, enabling linkage-like studies without pedigrees, and can be used to impute most genotypes with very low error rate.

Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with several common diseases, including cancer and is being investigated as a possible risk factor for these conditions. We reported the striking prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in Scotland. Previous epidemiological studies have reported an association between low dietary vitamin D and colorectal cancer (CRC). Using a case-control study design, we tested the association between plasma 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25-OHD) and CRC (2,001 cases, 2,237 controls). To determine whether plasma 25-OHD levels are causally linked to CRC risk, we applied the control function instrumental variable (IV) method of the Mendelian randomization (MR) approach using four single nucleotide polymorphisms (rs2282679, rs12785878, rs10741657, rs6013897) previously shown to be associated with plasma 25-OHD. Low plasma 25-OHD levels were associated with CRC risk in the crude model (odds ratio (OR): 0.76, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.71, 0.81, p: 1.4×10−14) and after adjusting for age, sex and other confounding factors. Using an allele score that combined all four SNPs as the IV, the estimated causal effect was OR 1.16 (95% CI 0.60, 2.23), whilst it was 0.94 (95% CI 0.46, 1.91) and 0.93 (0.53, 1.63) when using an upstream (rs12785878, rs10741657) and a downstream allele score (rs2282679, rs6013897), respectively. 25-OHD levels were inversely associated with CRC risk, in agreement with recent meta-analyses. The fact that this finding was not replicated when the MR approach was employed might be due to weak instruments, giving low power to demonstrate an effect (<0.35). The prevalence and degree of vitamin D deficiency amongst individuals living in northerly latitudes is of considerable importance because of its relationship to disease. To elucidate the effect of vitamin D on CRC cancer risk, additional large studies of vitamin D and CRC risk are required and/or the application of alternative methods that are less sensitive to weak instrument restrictions.

Introduction

Hyperuricemia is a strong risk factor for gout. The incidence of gout and hyperuricemia has increased recently, which is thought to be, in part, due to changes in diet and lifestyle. Objective of this study was to investigate the association between plasma urate concentration and: a) food items: dairy, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and purine-rich vegetables; b) related nutrients: lactose, calcium and fructose.

Methods

A total of 2,076 healthy participants (44% female) from a population-based case-control study in Scotland (1999–2006) were included in this study. Dietary data was collected using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Nutrient intake was calculated using FFQ and composition of foods information. Urate concentration was measured in plasma.

Results

Mean urate concentration was 283.8±72.1 mmol/dL (females: 260.1±68.9 mmol/dL and males: 302.3±69.2 mmol/dL). Using multivariate regression analysis we found that dairy, calcium and lactose intakes were inversely associated with urate (p = 0.008, p = 0.003, p = 0.0007, respectively). Overall SSB consumption was positively associated with urate (p = 0.008), however, energy-adjusted fructose intake was not associated with urate (p = 0.66). The intake of purine-rich vegetables was not associated to plasma urate (p = 0.38).

Conclusions

Our results suggest that limiting purine-rich vegetables intake for lowering plasma urate may be ineffectual, despite current recommendations. Although a positive association between plasma urate and SSB consumption was found, there was no association with fructose intake, suggesting that fructose is not the causal agent underlying the SSB-urate association. The abundant evidence supporting the inverse association between plasma urate concentration and dairy consumption should be reflected in dietary guidelines for hyperuricemic individuals and gout patients. Further research is needed to establish which nutrients and food products influence plasma urate concentration, to inform the development of evidence-based dietary guidelines.

Myopia is a complex genetic disorder and a common cause of visual impairment among working age adults. Genome-wide association studies have identified susceptibility loci on chromosomes 15q14 and 15q25 in Caucasian populations of European ancestry. Here, we present a confirmation and meta-analysis study in which we assessed whether these two loci are also associated with myopia in other populations. The study population comprised 31 cohorts from the Consortium of Refractive Error and Myopia (CREAM) representing 4 different continents with 55,177 individuals; 42,845 Caucasians and 12,332 Asians. We performed a meta-analysis of 14 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on 15q14 and 5 SNPs on 15q25 using linear regression analysis with spherical equivalent as a quantitative outcome, adjusted for age and sex. We calculated the odds ratio (OR) of myopia versus hyperopia for carriers of the top-SNP alleles using a fixed effects meta-analysis. At locus 15q14, all SNPs were significantly replicated, with the lowest P value 3.87 × 10−12 for SNP rs634990 in Caucasians, and 9.65 × 10−4 for rs8032019 in Asians. The overall meta-analysis provided P value 9.20 × 10−23 for the top SNP rs634990. The risk of myopia versus hyperopia was OR 1.88 (95 % CI 1.64, 2.16, P < 0.001) for homozygous carriers of the risk allele at the top SNP rs634990, and OR 1.33 (95 % CI 1.19, 1.49, P < 0.001) for heterozygous carriers. SNPs at locus 15q25 did not replicate significantly (P value 5.81 × 10−2 for top SNP rs939661). We conclude that common variants at chromosome 15q14 influence susceptibility for myopia in Caucasian and Asian populations world-wide.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00439-012-1176-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background

Between 1990 and 2006, China reduced its under-five mortality rate (U5MR) from 64.6 to 20.6 per 1000 live births and achieved the fourth United Nation’s Millennium Development Goal nine years ahead of target. This study explores the contribution of social, economic and political determinants, health system and policy determinants, and health programmes and interventions to this success.

Methods

For each of the years between 1990 and 2006, we obtained an estimate of U5MR for 30 Chinese provinces from the annual China Health Statistics Yearbook. For each year, we also obtained data describing the status of 8 social, 10 economic, 2 political, 9 health system and policy, and six health programmes and intervention indicators for each province. These government data are not of the same quality as some other health information sources in modern China, such as articles with primary research data available in Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) and Wan Fang databases, or Chinese Maternal and Child Mortality Surveillance system. Still, the comparison of relative changes in underlying indicators with the undisputed strong general trend of childhood mortality reduction over 17 years should still capture the main effects at the macro-level. We used multivariate random effect regression models to determine the effect of 35 indicators individually and 5 constructs defined by factor analysis (reflecting effects of social, economic, political, health systems and policy, and health programmes) on the reduction of U5MR in China.

Results

In the univariate regression applied with a one-year time lag, social determinants of health construct showed the strongest crude association with U5MR reduction (R2 = 0.74), followed by the constructs for health programmes and interventions (R2 = 0.65), economic (R2 = 0.47), political (R2 = 0.28) and health system and policy determinants (R2 = 0.26), respectively. Similarly, when multivariate regression was applied with a one-year time lag, the social determinants construct showed the strongest effect (beta = 11.79, P < 0.0001), followed by the construct for political factors (beta = 4.24, P < 0.0001) and health programmes and interventions (beta = −3.45, P < 0.0001). The 5 studied constructs accounted for about 80% of variability in U5MR reduction across provinces over the 17-year period.

Conclusion

Vertical intervention programs, health systems strengthening or economic growth alone may all fail to achieve the desired reduction in child mortality when improvement of the key social determinants of health is lagging behind. To accelerate progress toward MDG4, low- and middle-income countries should undertake appropriate efforts to promote maternal education, reduce fertility rates, integrate minority populations and improve access to clean water and safe sanitation. A cross-sectoral approach seems most likely to have the greatest impact on U5MR.

One of the common themes in contemporary global health is finding an optimal balance between investments in existing and emerging approaches to fight global health priorities. Existing interventions have been proven to be effective, but they usually have limitations. Emerging interventions could potentially bring greater gains at a lower cost, but health gains are usually uncertain and take much more time to achieve. There are no simple solutions on how to balance funding support to these two competing approaches, but some components of successful strategies are becoming increasingly apparent. Transparency over the expected return on investment, style of investment and time horizon can assist rational investment decisions.

Background

One of the most unexpected outcomes arising from the efforts towards maternal and child mortality reduction is that all too often the objective success has been coupled with increased inequity in the population. The aim of this study is to analyze the determinants of the complex interplay between cost-effectiveness and equity and suggest strategies that will promote an impact on mortality that reduce population child health inequities.

Methods

We developed a conceptual framework that exposes the nature of the links between the five key determinants that need to be taken into account when planning equitable impact. These determinants are: (i) efficiency of intervention scale-up (requires knowledge of differential increase in cost of intervention scale-up by equity strata in the population); (ii) effectiveness of intervention (requires understanding of differential effectiveness of interventions by equity strata in the population); (iii) the impact on mortality (requires knowledge of differential mortality levels by equity strata, and understanding the differences in cause composition of overall mortality in different equity strata); (iv) cost-effectiveness (compares the initial cost and the resulting impact on mortality); (v) equity structure of the population. The framework is presented visually as a four-quadrant graph.

Results

We use the proposed framework to demonstrate why the relationship between cost-effectiveness and equitable impact of an intervention cannot be intuitively predicted or easily planned. The relationships between the five determinants are complex, often nonlinear, context-specific and intervention-specific. We demonstrate that there will be instances when an equity-promoting approach, ie, trying to reach for the poorest and excluded in the population with health interventions, will also be the most cost-effective approach. However, there will be cases in which this will be entirely unfeasible, and where equity-neutral or even inequity-promoting approaches may be substantially more cost-effective. In those cases, investments into health system development among the poorest that would increase the quality and reduce the cost of intervention delivery would be required before intervention scale-up is planned.

Conclusions

The relationships between the most important determinants of cost-effectiveness and equitable impact of health interventions used to reduce maternal and child mortality are highly complex, and the effect on equity cannot be predicted intuitively, or by using simple linear models.

Common diseases such as type 2 diabetes are phenotypically heterogeneous. Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, but patients vary appreciably in body mass index. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m2) compared to obese cases (BMI≥30 Kg/m2). We performed two case-control genome-wide studies using two accepted cut-offs for defining individuals as overweight or obese. We used 2,112 lean type 2 diabetes cases (BMI<25 kg/m2) or 4,123 obese cases (BMI≥30 kg/m2), and 54,412 un-stratified controls. Replication was performed in 2,881 lean cases or 8,702 obese cases, and 18,957 un-stratified controls. To assess the effects of known signals, we tested the individual and combined effects of SNPs representing 36 type 2 diabetes loci. After combining data from discovery and replication datasets, we identified two signals not previously reported in Europeans. A variant (rs8090011) in the LAMA1 gene was associated with type 2 diabetes in lean cases (P = 8.4×10−9, OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.09–1.18]), and this association was stronger than that in obese cases (P = 0.04, OR = 1.03 [95% CI 1.00–1.06]). A variant in HMG20A—previously identified in South Asians but not Europeans—was associated with type 2 diabetes in obese cases (P = 1.3×10−8, OR = 1.11 [95% CI 1.07–1.15]), although this association was not significantly stronger than that in lean cases (P = 0.02, OR = 1.09 [95% CI 1.02–1.17]). For 36 known type 2 diabetes loci, 29 had a larger odds ratio in the lean compared to obese (binomial P = 0.0002). In the lean analysis, we observed a weighted per-risk allele OR = 1.13 [95% CI 1.10–1.17], P = 3.2×10−14. This was larger than the same model fitted in the obese analysis where the OR = 1.06 [95% CI 1.05–1.08], P = 2.2×10−16. This study provides evidence that stratification of type 2 diabetes cases by BMI may help identify additional risk variants and that lean cases may have a stronger genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes.

Author Summary

Individuals with Type 2 diabetes (T2D) can present with variable clinical characteristics. It is well known that obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes, yet patients can vary considerably—there are many lean diabetes patients and many overweight people without diabetes. We hypothesized that the genetic predisposition to the disease may be different in lean (BMI<25 Kg/m2) compared to obese cases (BMI≥30 Kg/m2). Specifically, as lean T2D patients had lower risk than obese patients, they must have been more genetically susceptible. Using genetic data from multiple genome-wide association studies, we tested genetic markers across the genome in 2,112 lean type 2 diabetes cases (BMI<25 kg/m2), 4,123 obese cases (BMI≥30 kg/m2), and 54,412 healthy controls. We confirmed our results in an additional 2,881 lean cases, 8,702 obese cases, and 18,957 healthy controls. Using these data we found differences in genetic enrichment between lean and obese cases, supporting our original hypothesis. We also searched for genetic variants that may be risk factors only in lean or obese patients and found two novel gene regions not previously reported in European individuals. These findings may influence future study design for type 2 diabetes and provide further insight into the biology of the disease.