Background

In 2005, it was estimated that hypertension affected 26.4% of the adult population worldwide. By 2025, it is predicted that it will affect about 60% of adults, a total of 1.56 billion. Both pre- and postnatal growth patterns have been associated with later blood pressure (BP), but in contrasting directions. These inconsistent associations of growth during different developmental periods merit elucidation. We tested a theoretical model treating birth weight as a marker of homeostatic metabolic capacity, and childhood height, lean mass and fat mass as independent indices of metabolic load. We predicted that decreased capacity and increased load would be independently associated with increased BP.

Methods and Findings

Data from the ALSPAC cohort on growth from birth to 7 years, and body composition by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and BP at 9 years, were analysed (n = 6579). Data were expressed as standard deviation scores (SDS) or standardised regression residuals (SRR). BP was independently and positively associated with each of height, lean mass and fat mass. In a joint model systolic BP was positively associated with conditional weight velocity [males 0.40 (95%CI: 0.37–0.44) & females 0.44 (95%CI: 0.40–0.47) SDS/SRR], but not birth weight [0.00 (95%CI: −0.03–0.04) & 0.03 (95%CI: −0.01–0.07) SDS/SDS]. Adjusting for height, lean mass and fat mass, the association of systolic BP and conditional weight velocity attenuated [0.00(95%CI: −0.09–0.08) & −0.06(95%CI: −0.14–0.03) SDS/SRR], whereas that with birth weight became negative [−0.10 (95%CI: −0.14–0.06) & −0.09 (95%CI: −0.13–0.05) SDS/SDS]. Similar results were obtained for diastolic BP and pulse pressure.

Conclusions

Consistent with our theoretical model, high metabolic load relative to metabolic capacity is associated with increased BP. Our data demonstrate the contribution of different growth and body composition components to BP variance, and clarify the developmental aetiology of hypertension.

An association of gestational weight gain (GWG) with offspring cognition has been postulated. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a United Kingdom prospective cohort (1990 through the present) with a median of 10 maternal weight measurements in pregnancy. These were used to allocate participants to 2009 Institute of Medicine weight-gain categories and in random effect linear spline models. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment score (age, 4 years; n = 5,832), standardized intelligence quotient assessed by Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (age, 8 years; n = 5,191), and school final-examination results (age, 16 years; n = 7,339). Offspring of women who gained less weight than recommended had a 0.075 standard deviation lower mean School Entry Assessment score (95% confidence interval: −0.127, −0.023) and were less likely to achieve adequate final-examination results (odds ratio = 0.88, 95% confidence interval: 0.78, 0.99) compared with offspring of women who gained as recommended. GWG in early pregnancy (defined as 0–18 weeks on the basis of a knot point at 18 weeks) and midpregnancy (defined as 18–28 weeks on the basis of knot points at 18 and 28 weeks) was positively associated with School Entry Assessment score and intelligence quotient. GWG in late pregnancy (defined as 28 weeks onward on the basis of a knot point at 28 weeks) was positively associated with offspring intelligence quotient and with increased odds of offspring achieving adequate final-examination results in mothers who were overweight prepregnancy. Findings support small positive associations between GWG and offspring cognitive development, which may have lasting effects on educational attainment up to age 16 years.

Highlights

► IL-18 is hypothesized to destabilise atherosclerotic plaques, leading to thrombotic events. ► We prospectively studied serum IL-18 and CHD or stroke onset in older men and women. ► IL-18 was positively associated with adverse lipid and inflammatory profile. ► Results did not suggest independent associations between IL-18 and CHD or stroke risk.

Aim

IL-18 is hypothesized to destabilise atherosclerotic plaques, leading to thrombotic events and epidemiologic studies suggest that IL-18 may increase risk of CHD or CVD.

We examined prospective associations between levels of serum IL-18 and new CHD and stroke events in older men and women from a general population.

Methods

A case-control study was nested within a prospective cohort of men and women aged 60–79 years recruited from general practices in 25 British towns in 1998–2000 and followed-up for 7.5 years for fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke. Baseline IL-18 was measured in stored serum samples of incident cases of MI (n = 364) or stroke (n = 300) and two controls per case.

Results

Geometric mean IL-18 levels were higher among the 364 MI cases than the 706 controls; 417.84 pg/mL (IQR 316.25, 537.44) compared to 386.90 pg/mL (IQR 296.54, 482.33), p(difference) = 0.002. IL-18 was positively associated with adverse lipid and inflammatory profiles. Men and women in the top third of baseline IL-18 levels had an age and sex-adjusted odds ratio (OR) for MI of 1.31 (95%CI 0.92, 1.85) compared with those in the lowest third; this attenuated to 1.05 (95%CI 0.72, 1.53) after additional adjustment for established vascular and inflammatory risk factors. Each doubling of IL-18 level was associated with an increased OR for MI 1.34 (95%CI 1.04, 1.72), which was attenuated on adjustment for established vascular and inflammatory risk factors; 1.09 (95%CI 0.83, 1.44).

Geometric mean IL-18 levels did not differ between stroke cases and controls. The OR for stroke associated with the highest compared to the lowest tertile of IL-18 was 1.24 (95%CI 0.84, 1.84). Results for MI and stroke did not differ by presence of pre-existing CVD, gender or age.

Conclusions

Circulating IL-18 levels were strongly associated with a range of established and novel risk factors but were not independently associated with risk of MI or stroke in our study.

Using cross-sectional surveys, Fahad Razak and colleagues investigate how the BMI (body mass index) distribution is changing for women in low- and middle-income countries.

Background

There are well-documented global increases in mean body mass index (BMI) and prevalence of overweight (BMI≥25.0 kg/m2) and obese (BMI≥30.0 kg/m2). Previous analyses, however, have failed to report whether this weight gain is shared equally across the population. We examined the change in BMI across all segments of the BMI distribution in a wide range of countries, and assessed whether the BMI distribution is changing between cross-sectional surveys conducted at different time points.

Methods and Findings

We used nationally representative surveys of women between 1991–2008, in 37 low- and middle-income countries from the Demographic Health Surveys ([DHS] n = 732,784). There were a total of 96 country-survey cycles, and the number of survey cycles per country varied between two (21/37) and five (1/37). Using multilevel regression models, between countries and within countries over survey cycles, the change in mean BMI was used to predict the standard deviation of BMI, the prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obese. Changes in median BMI were used to predict the 5th and 95th percentile of the BMI distribution. Quantile-quantile plots were used to examine the change in the BMI distribution between surveys conducted at different times within countries. At the population level, increasing mean BMI is related to increasing standard deviation of BMI, with the BMI at the 95th percentile rising at approximately 2.5 times the rate of the 5th percentile. Similarly, there is an approximately 60% excess increase in prevalence of overweight and 40% excess in obese, relative to the decline in prevalence of underweight. Quantile-quantile plots demonstrate a consistent pattern of unequal weight gain across percentiles of the BMI distribution as mean BMI increases, with increased weight gain at high percentiles of the BMI distribution and little change at low percentiles. Major limitations of these results are that repeated population surveys cannot examine weight gain within an individual over time, most of the countries only had data from two surveys and the study sample only contains women in low- and middle-income countries, potentially limiting generalizability of findings.

Conclusions

Mean changes in BMI, or in single parameters such as percent overweight, do not capture the divergence in the degree of weight gain occurring between BMI at low and high percentiles. Population weight gain is occurring disproportionately among groups with already high baseline BMI levels. Studies that characterize population change should examine patterns of change across the entire distribution and not just average trends or single parameters.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Editors' Summary

Background

The number of obese people (individuals who have an excessive amount of body fat) is rapidly increasing in many countries. Globally, there were about 200 million obese adults in 1995; by 2010, 475 million adults were obese and another billion were classified as overweight. Obesity is defined as having a body mass index (BMI, an indicator of body fat calculated by dividing a person's weight in kilograms by their height in meters squared) of more than 30.0 kg/m2. Compared to people with a healthy weight (a BMI between 18.5 and 24.9 kg/m2), obese individuals and overweight individuals (who have a BMI between 25.0 and 29.9 kg/m2) have an increased risk of developing diabetes, heart disease and stroke, and tend to die younger. At the same time in many developing countries substantial numbers of people are underweight (BMI <18.5 kg/m2) or have chronic energy deficiency (BMI <16.0 kg/m2) and are at risk of increased risk of dying due to infectious disease or respiratory problems.

Why Was This Study Done?

The global obesity epidemic is usually described in terms of increases in the average BMI or in the prevalence of obesity (the proportion of the population whose BMI is above 30.0 kg/m2). Such descriptions assume that the BMIs of fat and thin people are increasing at the same rate and that the shape of the population's BMI distribution curve remains constant. However, as average BMI and the prevalence of obesity can increase it is unclear how the prevalence of underweight changes. This is potentially important for the health of the population because underweight individuals, like obese individuals, tend to die younger than healthy weight individuals, particularly in low-income countries. In this study, the researchers use repeated cross-sectional survey data collected from low- and middle-income countries in the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to examine changes in BMI in women across the BMI distribution between 1991 and 2008. Repeated cross-sectional surveys collect data from a population at multiple time points from different individuals drawn from the same population, DHS are a data collection and surveillance project that help developing countries track health and population trends.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

The researchers used statistical models to analyze data from DHS surveys of more than 730,000 women living in 37 low- and middle-income countries (two to five surveys per country). Increasing average BMI was associated with an increase in the standard deviation of BMI (a measure of the dispersion of BMI in the population) both across and within countries over time. With increasing average BMI, the BMI at both the 5th and 95th percentile increased; 90% of the BMIs in a population lie between these percentiles so these BMI values indicate the spread of the BMI distribution. However, the BMI at the 95th percentile increased about 2.5 times faster than the BMI at the 5th percentile. Moreover, with increasing average BMI, the prevalence of overweight and obesity increased faster than the decline in the prevalence of underweight. Finally, quantile-quantile plots for each country (a graphical method that compares two distributions) revealed a consistent pattern of unequal weight gain across the BMI distribution as average BMI increased, with pronounced weight gains at the obese end of the distribution and little change at the underweight end.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These findings show that increases in average BMI are associated with an increased spread of BMI across and within populations. Consequently, changes in average BMI or single measurements such as the prevalence of overweight do not capture the divergence in the degree of weight gain occurring between that part of the population that has a low BMI and that part that has a high BMI. In other words, at least for the low- and middle-income countries included in this study, population weight gain is occurring disproportionately among groups with high baseline BMI levels. The researchers suggest, therefore, that the characterization of the BMI of populations over time should examine the patterns of change across the whole BMI distribution. Moreover, rather than a single broad population strategy for weight control, optimum health outcomes, they suggest, might be achieved by a strategy that includes targeted interventions to reduce weight in high BMI segments of the population and to increase weight in low BMI segments.

Additional Information

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001367.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information on all aspects of overweight and obesity (in English and Spanish)

The World Health Organization provides information on obesity (in several languages); Malri's story describes the health risks faced by an obese child

The UK National Health Service Choices website also provides detailed information about obesity and a link to a personal story about losing weight

The International Obesity Taskforce provides information about the global obesity epidemic

The US Department of Agriculture's ChooseMyPlate.gov website provides a personal healthy eating plan; the Weight-control Information Network is an information service provided for the general public and health professionals by the US National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (in English and Spanish)

MedlinePlus has links to further information about obesity (in English and Spanish)

OBJECTIVE

To assess associations of gestational diabetes, existing diabetes, and glycosuria with adiposity and cardiometabolic risk factors in offspring at adolescence.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Multivariable regression analyses were conducted in a prospective pregnancy cohort (n = 2,563–4,198 for different outcomes). Obstetric data were abstracted from clinical records. Offspring outcomes were assessed at mean age 15.5 years. Compared with those lost to follow-up, participants included in the analysis were of higher socioeconomic position. Outcomes included BMI, waist circumference, fat mass determined by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (sBP and dBP, respectively), fasting glucose, insulin, lipids, and C-reactive protein (CRP).

RESULTS

Maternal existing diabetes, gestational diabetes, and glycosuria were associated with higher offspring BMI and fat mass (z scores); however, this effect was attenuated in the confounder-adjusted model, and the CIs included the null value. Existing diabetes and gestational diabetes were associated with higher offspring fasting glucose levels (0.24 mmol/L [95% CI 0.03–0.45] and 0.20 mmol/L [0.02–0.39], respectively). Glycosuria was associated with higher fasting insulin (adjusted ratio of geometric means 1.12 [1.01–1.25]), but there were no clear associations of existing or gestational diabetes with offspring fasting insulin. There was little evidence of an association of maternal diabetes or glycosuria with offspring dBP, sBP, lipids, or CRP.

CONCLUSIONS

Maternal pregnancy glycosuria, gestational diabetes, and existing diabetes show some associations with higher offspring fasting glucose and insulin assessed in adolescence but are not clearly associated with a wider range of cardiometabolic risk factors.

Vitamin B-12 is essential for the development and maintenance of a healthy nervous system. Brain development occurs primarily in utero and early infancy, but the role of maternal vitamin B-12 status during pregnancy on offspring cognitive function is unclear. In this study we assessed the effect of vitamin B-12 status in well-nourished pregnant women on the cognitive ability of their offspring in a UK birth cohort (ALSPAC). We then examined the association of SNPs in maternal genes FUT2 (rs492602) and TCN2 (rs1801198, rs9606756) that are related to plasma vitamin B-12, with offspring IQ. Observationally, there was a positive association between maternal vitamin B-12 intake and child’s IQ that was markedly attenuated after adjustment for potential confounders (mean difference in offspring IQ score per doubling of maternal B-12 intake, before adjustment: 2.0 (95% CI 1.3, 2.8); after adjustment: 0.7 (95% CI −0.04, 1.4)). Maternal FUT2 was weakly associated with offspring IQ: mean difference in IQ per allele was 0.9 (95% CI 0.1, 1.6). The expected effect of maternal vitamin B-12 on offspring IQ, given the relationships between SNPs and vitamin B-12, and SNPs and IQ was consistent with the observational result. Our findings suggest that maternal vitamin B-12 may not have an important effect on offspring cognitive ability. However, further examination of this issue is warranted.

We compared patterns of blood pressure (BP) change between normotensive women, women who developed gestational hypertension or preeclampsia and women who had essential hypertension to examine how distinct these conditions are and whether rates of BP change may help to identify women at risk of hypertensive disorders. We used antenatal clinic BP measurements (median 14 per woman) of 13,016 women from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) who had a singleton or twin live birth surviving until at least 1 year. Linear spline models were used to describe changes in systolic and diastolic BP in different periods of pregnancy (8-18, 18-30, 30-36 and 36+ weeks gestation). Women who had essential hypertension, and those who developed gestational hypertension or preeclampsia had higher BP at 8 weeks gestation (baseline) compared with normotensive women. The decrease in BP until 18 weeks was smaller in gestational hypertensive compared with normotensive pregnancies. BP rose more rapidly from 18 weeks onwards in gestational hypertensive and preeclamptic pregnancies and from 30 weeks onwards in essential hypertensive compared with normotensive pregnancies. Women who developed preeclampsia had a more rapid increase in BP from 30 weeks onwards than those who developed gestational hypertension or had essential hypertension. Our findings indicate notable patterns of BP change that distinguish women with essential hypertension, gestational hypertension and preeclampsia from each other and from normotensive women, even from early pregnancy. These distinct patterns may be useful for identifying women at risk of developing a hypertensive disorder later in pregnancy.

Background

We aimed to examine the association of gestational weight gain (GWG) and pre-pregnancy weight with offspring adiposity and cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods and results

Data from 5,154 (for adiposity and blood pressure) and 3,457 (for blood assays) mother-offspring pairs from a UK prospective pregnancy cohort were used. Random effects multilevel models were used to assess incremental GWG (median and range of repeat weight measures per woman: 10 (1, 17)). Women who exceeded the 2009 Institute of Medicine recommended GWG were more likely to have offspring with greater body mass index, waist, fat mass, leptin, systolic blood pressure, CRP and IL-6 levels, and lower HDLc and Apolipoprotein A1 levels. Children of women who gained less than the recommended amounts had lower levels of adiposity, but other cardiovascular risk factor tended to be similar in this group to offspring of women gaining recommended amounts. When examined in more detail greater pre-pregnancy weight was associated with greater offspring adiposity and more adverse cardiovascular risk factors at age 9. GWG in early pregnancy (0 to 14 weeks) was positively associated with offspring adiposity across the entire distribution, but strengthened in women gaining more than 500g/week. By contrast, between 14 and 36 weeks GWG was only associated with offspring adiposity in women gaining at least 500g/week. GWG between 14-36 weeks was positively and linearly associated with adverse lipid and inflammatory profiles with these associations largely mediated by the associations with offspring adiposity.

Conclusions

Greater maternal pre-pregnancy weight and GWG up to 36 weeks gestation are associated with greater offspring adiposity and adverse cardiovascular risk factors. Before implementing any GWG recommendations, the balance of risks and benefits of attempts to control GWG for short- and long-term outcomes in mother and child should be ascertained.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is the world’s leading mortality risk factor. Childhood BP substantially predicts adult levels, and although both prenatal and postnatal growth influence it, their relative importance is debated. In a longitudinal study (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children) of 12 962 healthy children, we aimed to assess the relative contribution of different growth periods and of standardized measures of height versus weight-for-height (an adiposity marker) to BP at age 10 years. Conditional growth modeling was used in the 3230 boys and 3346 girls with BP measurements. Systolic BP was inversely associated with birth weight and weight-for-height but not length (−0.33, −0.27, and −0.12 mm Hg · SD−1; P=0.003, 0.035, and 0.35, respectively). In infancy, weight, weight-for-height, and height gains were all positively associated with systolic BP (0.90, 0.41, and 0.82 mm Hg · SD−1, respectively; all P<0.001). After infancy, all of the growth modalities were positively associated with systolic BP (weight, 1.91; weight-for-height, 1.56; height, 1.20 mm Hg · SD−1; all P<0.001). Similar but weaker associations were found with diastolic BP. Although BP at 10 years was associated with both prenatal and early postnatal growth, their influence was small compared with that of later growth. Because BP ranking relative to the population is substantially determined in the first decade of life, a focus on strategies to reduce the development of adiposity from infancy onward, rather than an emphasis on the nutrition and weight of mothers and infants, should bring greater reductions in population BP.

Background

In observational epidemiological studies type 2 diabetes (T2D) and both low and high plasma concentrations of fasting glucose have been found to be associated with lower cognitive performance. These associations could be explained by confounding.

Methods

In this study we looked at the association between genetic variants, known to be robustly associated with fasting glucose and T2D risk, in the mother and her offspring to determine whether there is likely to be a causal link between early life exposure to glucose and child’s intelligence quotient (IQ) scores in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) cohort. We generated a fasting glucose (FGGRS) and a T2D (T2DGRS) genetic risk score and used them in a Mendelian randomization approach.

Results

We found a strong correlation between the FGGRS and fasting glucose plasma measurements that were available for a subset of children, but no association of either the maternal or the offspring FGGRS with child’s IQ was observed. In contrast, the maternal T2DGRS was positively associated with offspring IQ.

Conclusions

Maternal and offspring genetic variants which are associated with glucose levels are not associated with offspring IQ, suggesting that there is unlikely to be a causal link between glucose exposure in utero and IQ in childhood. Further exploration in even larger cohorts is required to exclude the possibility that our null findings were due to a lack of statistical power.

Background

The nature and contribution of different pregnancy related complications to future cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its risk factors, as well as mechanisms underlying these associations remain unclear.

Methods and Results

We studied associations of pregnancy diabetes, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), preterm delivery and size for gestational age with calculated 10 year CVD risk (based on the Framingham score) and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors measured 18 years after pregnancy (mean age at outcome assessment: 48 years) in a prospective cohort of 3,416 women. Gestational diabetes (GDM) was positively associated with fasting glucose and insulin, even after adjusting for potential confounders whilst HDP were associated with BMI, waist circumference, blood pressure, lipids and insulin. Large for gestational age (LGA) was associated with greater waist circumference and glucose concentrations, whilst small for gestational age (SGA) and preterm delivery were associated with higher blood pressure. The association with the calculated 10 year CVD risk based on the Framingham prediction score was OR=1.31 (95%CI: 1.11, 1.53) for preeclampsia and 1.26 (0.95, 1.68) for GDM compared to women without preeclampsia and GDM respectively.

Conclusions

HDP and pregnancy diabetes are independently associated with an increased calculated 10 year CVD risk. Preeclampsia may be the better predictor of future CVD since it was associated with a wider range of cardiovascular risk factors. Our results suggest that pregnancy may be an important opportunity for early identification of women at increased risk of CVD later in life.

Maternal smoking during pregnancy is associated with low birth weight. Common variation at rs1051730 is robustly associated with smoking quantity and was recently shown to influence smoking cessation during pregnancy, but its influence on birth weight is not clear. We aimed to investigate the association between this variant and birth weight of term, singleton offspring in a well-powered meta-analysis. We stratified 26 241 European origin study participants by smoking status (women who smoked during pregnancy versus women who did not smoke during pregnancy) and, in each stratum, analysed the association between maternal rs1051730 genotype and offspring birth weight. There was evidence of interaction between genotype and smoking (P = 0.007). In women who smoked during pregnancy, each additional smoking-related T-allele was associated with a 20 g [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 4–36 g] lower birth weight (P = 0.014). However, in women who did not smoke during pregnancy, the effect size estimate was 5 g per T-allele (95% CI: −4 to 14 g; P = 0.268). To conclude, smoking status during pregnancy modifies the association between maternal rs1051730 genotype and offspring birth weight. This strengthens the evidence that smoking during pregnancy is causally related to lower offspring birth weight and suggests that population interventions that effectively reduce smoking in pregnant women would result in a reduced prevalence of low birth weight.

Introduction. Results from studies examining associations of maternal diabetes in pregnancy with offspring cognitive outcomes have been inconclusive. Methods. We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children, a UK prospective pregnancy cohort. Outcomes were School Entry Assessment (SEA) scores (age 4, N = 6, 032) and WISC-III IQ (age 8, N = 5, 282–5,307) and General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) results (age 16, N = 7, 615). Results. Existing diabetes, gestational diabetes, and, to a lesser extent, glycosuria were associated with lower offspring SEA scores (age 4), IQ (age 8), and GCSE results (age 16) even when adjusting for offspring sex, maternal age, prepregnancy BMI, smoking in pregnancy, parity, caesarean section, maternal education, and occupational social class. Offspring of mothers with existing diabetes had a threefold risk of achieving no GCSEs graded A*-C, whilst offspring of women with gestational diabetes had, on average, a five point lower IQ compared to offspring of women with no diabetes or glycosuria. Conclusions. Maternal diabetes in pregnancy is consistently associated with lower offspring cognition and educational attainment though confidence intervals were wide. The weaker associations with glycosuria suggest a dose-dependent adverse association with IQ.

Background

Iron deficiency is the most common micronutrient deficiency worldwide. Experimental animal studies suggest that mothers deficient in iron during pregnancy are more likely to have offspring who become obese with high blood pressure. C282Y mutation carriers are more likely to have higher iron stores.

Methods

We undertook an instrumental variable (IV) analysis, using maternal C282Y as an indicator for the mother’s iron status, to examine its association with offspring blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC), and body mass index (BMI), and compared the results to that of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. Offspring of a sub-cohort of mothers from the UK Women’s Cohort Study (UKWCS) were recruited in 2009–2010 (n = 348, mean age = 41 years). Their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured at their local general medical practice, and they were asked to self-measure their waist circumference. About half were offspring of C282Y carriers. Maternal ferritin was used as a biomarker of maternal iron status.

Results

Maternal C282Y was strongly associated with maternal ferritin (mean difference per allele = 84 g/L, 95% confidence interval: 31–137, P = 0.002). Using IV analyses, maternal ferritin was not linked to offspring’s BP, BMI, or WC. The first stage F-statistic for the strength of the instrument was 10 (Kleibergen–Paap rk LM P = 0.009). Maternal ferritin was linked to offspring diastolic BP, WC, and BMI in univariable, but not in multivariable OLS analysis. There was no difference between the OLS and the IV models coefficients for any of the outcomes considered.

Conclusion

We found no association between maternal iron status and adult offspring’s BP and adiposity using both multivariable OLS and IV modeling. To our knowledge, this is the first study examining this relationship. Further exploration in larger studies that have genetic variation assessed in both mother and offspring should be considered.

Objective

Non-clinical psychotic experiences are common and distressing. It has been hypothesized that early life vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for psychosis-related outcomes, but it is not known if circulating concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) during childhood are associated with psychosis-related outcomes or whether the two different forms of 25(OH)D, (25(OH)D3 and 25(OH)D2, have similar associations with psychosis-related outcomes.

Methods

We investigated the association between serum 25(OH)D3 and 25(OH)D2 concentrations and psychotic experiences in a prospective birth cohort study. Serum 25(OH)D3 and 25(OH)D2 concentrations were measured at mean age 9.8 years and psychotic experiences assessed at mean age 12.8 years by a psychologist (N = 3182).

Results

Higher 25(OH)D3 concentrations were associated with lower risk of definite psychotic experiences (adjusted odds ratio: OR (95% confidence interval: CI) 0.85 (0.75–0.95)). Higher concentrations of 25(OH)D2 were associated with higher risk of suspected and definite psychotic experiences (adjusted odds ratio: OR (95% confidence interval: CI) 1.26 (1.11, 1.43)). Higher 25(OD)D2 concentrations were also weakly associated with definite psychotic experiences (adjusted OR (95% CI) 1.17 (0.96, 1.43), though with wide confidence intervals including the null value.

Conclusions

Our findings of an inverse association of 25(OH)D3 with definite psychotic experiences is consistent with the hypothesis that vitamin D may protect against psychosis-related outcomes.

Background

Higher serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), an indicator of vitamin D synthesis and intake, have been associated with better mental health and cognitive function. Concentrations of 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (the active vitamin D3 metabolite) have been associated with openness and extrovert behaviour, but 25(OH)D concentrations have not been associated with behavioural problems in humans.

Methods

We investigated the prospective association between the different forms of 25(OH)D - 25(OH)D3 and 25(OH)D2– and childhood behavioural problems in Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Serum 25(OH)D3 and 25(OH)D2 concentrations were assessed at mean age 9.9 years. Incident behavioural problems were assessed with Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ; emotional symptoms, conduct problems, hyperactivity-inattention problems, peer relationship problems and pro-social behaviour subscales and total difficulties score) at mean age 11.7. Sample sizes varied between 2413-2666 depending on the outcome.

Results

Higher 25(OH)D3 concentrations were weakly associated with lower risk of prosocial problems (fully adjusted odds ratio: OR (95% confidence interval: CI) 0.85 (0.74, 0.98)). Serum 25(OH)D3 or 25(OH)D2 concentrations were not associated with other subscales of SDQ or total difficulties score after adjusting for concfounders and other measured analytes related to vitamin D.

Conclusions

Our findings do not support the hypothesis that 25-hydroxyvitamin D status in childhood has important influences on behavioural traits in humans.

Background

We investigated whether there are subgroups with different underlying (latent) trajectories of midlife systolic blood pressure (BP), diastolic BP and pulse pressure in a UK cohort.

Methods

Data are from 1840 men and 1819 women with BP measured at age 36, 43 and 53years. We used unconditional growth mixture models to test for the presence of latent trajectory classes. Extracted classes were described in terms of a number of known lifetime risk factors, and linked to the risk of undiagnosed angina (Rose questionnaire) at age 53 years.

Results

In both sexes for systolic BP, diastolic BP and pulse pressure, there was a large “normative” class (>90% of the sample) characterized by gentle annual increases (eg an increase in male systolic BP of 0.9mmHg/year [95% confidence interval = 0.9 to1.0]), with a smaller class for whom the rate of increase was high (e.g. an increase in male systolic BP of 3.1mmHg/year [2.8 to3.4]). In women there was an additional class for whom BP was high at age 36 and remained high. Persons in the “normative” classes were, on average, heavier at birth and taller at age 7 years, had a lower midlife body mass index, and were less likely to be on antihypertensive medication compared with those in other classes. Among those with no diagnosed cardiovascular disease, those in the classes with more strongly increasing systolic BP and pulse pressure were at greatest risk of angina.

Conclusion

Our study suggests that in midlife the majority of the population have a gentle underlying increase in BP, but that there also exists an important subgroup in whom BP increases much more markedly. These classes may be useful for identifying those most at risk of cardiovascular disease.

HP and HPR are related and contiguous genes in strong linkage disequilibrium (LD), encoding haptoglobin and haptoglobin-related protein. These bind and chaperone free Hb for recycling, protecting against oxidation. A copy number variation (CNV) within HP (Hp1/Hp2) results in different possible haptoglobin complexes which have differing properties. HPR rs2000999 (G/A), identified in meta-GWAS, influences total cholesterol (TC) and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C). We examined the relationship between HP CNV, HPR rs2000999, Hb, red cell count (RCC), LDL-C and TC in the British Women's Heart and Health Study (n = 2779 for samples having CNV, rs2000999, and phenotypes). Analysing single markers by linear regression, rs2000999 was associated with LDL-C (β = 0.040 mmol/L, p = 0.023), TC (β = − 0.040 mmol/L, p = 0.019), Hb (β = − 0.044 g/dL, p = 0.028) and borderline with RCC (β = − 0.032 × 1012/L, p = 0.066). Analysis of CNV by linear regression revealed an association with Hb (Hp1 vs Hp2, β = 0.057 g/dL, p = 0.004), RCC (β = 0.045 × 1012/L, p = 0.014), and showed a trend with LDL-C and TC. There were 3 principal haplotypes (Hp1-G 36%; Hp2-G 45%; Hp2-A 18%). Haplotype comparisons showed that LDL-C and TC associations were from rs2000999; Hb and RCC associations derived largely from the CNV. Distinct genotype–phenotype effects are evident at the genetic epidemiological level once LD has been analysed, perhaps reflecting HP–HPR functional biology and evolutionary history. The derived Hp2 allele of the HP gene has apparently been subject to malaria-driven positive selection. Haptoglobin-related protein binds Hb and apolipoprotein-L, i.e. linking HPR to the cholesterol system; and the HPR/apo-L complex is specifically trypanolytic. Our analysis illustrates the complex interplay between functions and haplotypes of adjacent genes, environmental context and natural selection, and offers insights into potential use of haptoglobin or haptoglobin-related protein as therapeutic agents.

Highlights

► HP CNV/HPR SNP haplotype analysis shows association of HP CNV with Hb levels/RCC. ► HP CNV/HPR SNP haplotype analysis shows association of HPR SNP with LDL-C/TC. ► The HP CNV/Hb-related association may be via Hp2 allele advantage in malaria zones. ► The HPR SNP/cholesterol association is likely via apolipoproteins in TLF-1 and -2. ► We infer that HP CNV duplication preceded HPR SNP mutation.

The Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) is a transgenerational prospective observational study investigating influences on health and development across the life course. It considers multiple genetic, epigenetic, biological, psychological, social and other environmental exposures in relation to a similarly diverse range of health, social and developmental outcomes. Recruitment sought to enrol pregnant women in the Bristol area of the UK during 1990–92; this was extended to include additional children eligible using the original enrolment definition up to the age of 18 years. The children from 14 541 pregnancies were recruited in 1990–92, increasing to 15 247 pregnancies by the age of 18 years. This cohort profile describes the index children of these pregnancies. Follow-up includes 59 questionnaires (4 weeks–18 years of age) and 9 clinical assessment visits (7–17 years of age). The resource comprises a wide range of phenotypic and environmental measures in addition to biological samples, genetic (DNA on 11 343 children, genome-wide data on 8365 children, complete genome sequencing on 2000 children) and epigenetic (methylation sampling on 1000 children) information and linkage to health and administrative records. Data access is described in this article and is currently set up as a supported access resource. To date, over 700 peer-reviewed articles have been published using ALSPAC data.

Summary The Avon Longitudinal Study of Children and Parents (ALSPAC) was established to understand how genetic and environmental characteristics influence health and development in parents and children. All pregnant women resident in a defined area in the South West of England, with an expected date of delivery between 1st April 1991 and 31st December 1992, were eligible and 13 761 women (contributing 13 867 pregnancies) were recruited. These women have been followed over the last 19–22 years and have completed up to 20 questionnaires, have had detailed data abstracted from their medical records and have information on any cancer diagnoses and deaths through record linkage. A follow-up assessment was completed 17–18 years postnatal at which anthropometry, blood pressure, fat, lean and bone mass and carotid intima media thickness were assessed, and a fasting blood sample taken. The second follow-up clinic, which additionally measures cognitive function, physical capability, physical activity (with accelerometer) and wrist bone architecture, is underway and two further assessments with similar measurements will take place over the next 5 years. There is a detailed biobank that includes DNA, with genome-wide data available on >10 000, stored serum and plasma taken repeatedly since pregnancy and other samples; a wide range of data on completed biospecimen assays are available. Details of how to access these data are provided in this cohort profile.

Background: Socio-economic differences in the prevalence of overweight/obesity may be one factor through which health inequalities arise and may vary by the population studied. Methods: Analysing a cohort of 13 889 children born in Belarus between June 1996 and December 1997, the authors investigated associations of parental educational attainment and highest household occupation with: (i) measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference and skinfold thicknesses at age 6.5 years and (ii) the parents’ reported BMI. Results: Overall, 10% of children, 37% of mothers and 53% of fathers were either overweight or obese. Children from non-manual households were 27% [95% confidence interval (CI): 10%, 47%] more likely to be overweight/obese (based on BMI) than those from manual households. They also had larger waist circumferences and higher percentage body fat (calculated from subscapular and triceps skinfolds). Similar associations for being overweight/obese were seen for fathers [odds ratio (OR), 1.10; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.18], but mothers from non-manual households were less likely to be overweight/obese: (OR, 0.84; 95% CI: 0.79, 0. 90). Associations of childhood and parental overweight/obesity with higher educational status of either parent were similar to those observed for non-manual households. Conclusion: We observed socio-economic differentials in overweight/obesity prevalence among children and their parents in Belarus. More affluent children and their fathers were more likely to be overweight/obese but the reverse was found for mothers.

Brachial circumference (BC), also known as upper arm or mid arm circumference, can be used as an indicator of muscle mass and fat tissue, which are distributed differently in men and women. Analysis of anthropometric measures of peripheral fat distribution such as BC could help in understanding the complex pathophysiology behind overweight and obesity. The purpose of this study is to identify genetic variants associated with BC through a large-scale genome-wide association scan (GWAS) meta-analysis. We used fixed-effects meta-analysis to synthesise summary results across 14 GWAS discovery and 4 replication cohorts comprising overall 22,376 individuals (12,031 women and 10,345 men) of European ancestry. Individual analyses were carried out for men, women, and combined across sexes using linear regression and an additive genetic model: adjusted for age and adjusted for age and BMI. We prioritised signals for follow-up in two-stages. We did not detect any signals reaching genome-wide significance. The FTO rs9939609 SNP showed nominal evidence for association (p<0.05) in the age-adjusted strata for men and across both sexes. In this first GWAS meta-analysis for BC to date, we have not identified any genome-wide significant signals and do not observe robust association of previously established obesity loci with BC. Large-scale collaborations will be necessary to achieve higher power to detect loci underlying BC.

Much has been written about the measurement of socio-economic position (SEP) in high-income countries (HIC). Less has been written for an epidemiology, health systems and public health audience about the measurement of SEP in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). The social stratification processes in many LMIC—and therefore the appropriate measurement tools—differ considerably from those in HIC. Many measures of SEP have been utilized in epidemiological studies; the aspects of SEP captured by these measures and the pathways through which they may affect health are likely to be slightly different but overlapping. No single measure of SEP will be ideal for all studies and contexts; the strengths and limitations of a given indicator are likely to vary according to the specific research question. Understanding the general properties of different indicators, however, is essential for all those involved in the design or interpretation of epidemiological studies. In this article, we describe the measures of SEP used in LMIC. We concentrate on measures of individual or household-level SEP rather than area-based or ecological measures such as gross domestic product. We describe each indicator in terms of its theoretical basis, interpretation, measurement, strengths and limitations. We also provide brief comparisons between LMIC and HIC for each measure.

OBJECTIVE

The causal nature of associations between circulating triglycerides, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes is unclear. We aimed to use Mendelian randomization to test the hypothesis that raised circulating triglyceride levels causally influence the risk of type 2 diabetes and raise normal fasting glucose levels and hepatic insulin resistance.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We tested 10 common genetic variants robustly associated with circulating triglyceride levels against the type 2 diabetes status in 5,637 case and 6,860 control subjects and four continuous outcomes (reflecting glycemia and hepatic insulin resistance) in 8,271 nondiabetic individuals from four studies.

RESULTS

Individuals carrying greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased circulating triglyceride levels (SD 0.59 [95% CI 0.52–0.65] difference between the 20% of individuals with the most alleles and the 20% with the fewest alleles). There was no evidence that the carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles were at increased risk of type 2 diabetes (per weighted allele odds ratio [OR] 0.99 [95% CI 0.97–1.01]; P = 0.26). In nondiabetic individuals, there was no evidence that carriers of greater numbers of triglyceride-raising alleles had increased fasting insulin levels (SD 0.00 per weighted allele [95% CI −0.01 to 0.02]; P = 0.72) or increased fasting glucose levels (0.00 [−0.01 to 0.01]; P = 0.88). Instrumental variable analyses confirmed that genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels were not associated with increased diabetes risk, fasting glucose, or fasting insulin and, for diabetes, showed a trend toward a protective association (OR per 1-SD increase in log10 triglycerides: 0.61 [95% CI 0.45–0.83]; P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Genetically raised circulating triglyceride levels do not increase the risk of type 2 diabetes or raise fasting glucose or fasting insulin levels in nondiabetic individuals. One explanation for our results is that raised circulating triglycerides are predominantly secondary to the diabetes disease process rather than causal.

Robert Clarke and colleagues conduct a meta-analysis of unpublished datasets to examine the causal relationship between elevation of homocysteine levels in the blood and the risk of coronary heart disease. Their data suggest that an increase in homocysteine levels is not likely to result in an increase in risk of coronary heart disease.

Background

Moderately elevated blood levels of homocysteine are weakly correlated with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, but causality remains uncertain. When folate levels are low, the TT genotype of the common C677T polymorphism (rs1801133) of the methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase gene (MTHFR) appreciably increases homocysteine levels, so “Mendelian randomization” studies using this variant as an instrumental variable could help test causality.

Methods and Findings

Nineteen unpublished datasets were obtained (total 48,175 CHD cases and 67,961 controls) in which multiple genetic variants had been measured, including MTHFR C677T. These datasets did not include measurements of blood homocysteine, but homocysteine levels would be expected to be about 20% higher with TT than with CC genotype in the populations studied. In meta-analyses of these unpublished datasets, the case-control CHD odds ratio (OR) and 95% CI comparing TT versus CC homozygotes was 1.02 (0.98–1.07; p = 0.28) overall, and 1.01 (0.95–1.07) in unsupplemented low-folate populations. By contrast, in a slightly updated meta-analysis of the 86 published studies (28,617 CHD cases and 41,857 controls), the OR was 1.15 (1.09–1.21), significantly discrepant (p = 0.001) with the OR in the unpublished datasets. Within the meta-analysis of published studies, the OR was 1.12 (1.04–1.21) in the 14 larger studies (those with variance of log OR<0.05; total 13,119 cases) and 1.18 (1.09–1.28) in the 72 smaller ones (total 15,498 cases).

Conclusions

The CI for the overall result from large unpublished datasets shows lifelong moderate homocysteine elevation has little or no effect on CHD. The discrepant overall result from previously published studies reflects publication bias or methodological problems.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Editors' Summary

Background

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death among adults in developed countries. With age, fatty deposits (atherosclerotic plaques) coat the walls of the coronary arteries, the blood vessels that supply the heart with oxygen and nutrients. The resultant restriction of the heart's blood supply causes shortness of breath, angina (chest pains that are usually relieved by rest), and sometimes fatal heart attacks. Many established risk factors for CHD, including smoking, physical inactivity, being overweight, and eating a fat-rich diet, can be modified by lifestyle changes. Another possible modifiable risk factor for CHD is a high blood level of the amino acid homocysteine. Methylene tetrahydofolate reductase, which is encoded by the MTHFR gene, uses folate to break down and remove homocysteine so fortification of cereals with folate can reduce population homocysteine blood levels. Pooled results from prospective observational studies that have looked for an association between homocysteine levels and later development of CHD suggest that the reduction in homocysteine levels that can be achieved by folate supplementation is associated with an 11% lower CHD risk.

Why Was This Study Done?

Prospective observational studies cannot prove that high homocysteine levels cause CHD because of confounding, the potential presence of other unknown shared characteristics that really cause CHD. However, an approach called “Mendelian randomization” can test whether high blood homocysteine causes CHD. A common genetic variant of the MTHFR gene—the C677T polymorphism—reduces MTHFR efficiency so TT homozygotes (individuals in whom both copies of the MTHFR gene have the nucleotide thymine at position 677; the human genome contains two copies of most genes) have 25% higher blood homocysteine levels than CC homozygotes. In meta-analyses (statistical pooling of the results of several studies) of published Mendelian randomized studies, TT homozygotes have a higher CHD risk than CC homozygotes. Because gene variants are inherited randomly, they are not subject to confounding, so this result suggests that high blood homocysteine causes CHD. But what if only Mendelian randomization studies that found an association have been published? Such publication bias would affect this aggregate result. Here, the researchers investigate the association of the MTHFR C677T polymorphism with CHD in unpublished datasets that have analyzed this polymorphism incidentally during other genetic studies.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

The researchers obtained 19 unpublished datasets that contained data on the MTHFR C677T polymorphism in thousands of people with and without CHD. Meta-analysis of these datasets indicates that the excess CHD risk in TT homozygotes compared to CC homozygotes was 2% (much lower than predicted from the prospective observational studies), a nonsignificant difference (that is, it could have occurred by chance). When the probable folate status of the study populations (based on when national folic acid fortification legislation came into effect) was taken into account, there was still no evidence that TT homozygotes had an excess CHD risk. By contrast, in an updated meta-analysis of 86 published studies of the association of the polymorphism with CHD, the excess CHD risk in TT homozygotes compared to CC homozygotes was 15%. Finally, in a meta-analysis of randomized trials on the use of vitamin B supplements for homocysteine reduction, folate supplementation had no significant effect on the 5-year incidence of CHD.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These analyses of unpublished datasets are consistent with lifelong moderate elevation of homocysteine levels having no significant effect on CHD risk. In other words, these findings indicate that circulating homocysteine levels within the normal range are not causally related to CHD risk. The meta-analysis of the randomized trials of folate supplementation also supports this conclusion. So why is there a discrepancy between these findings and those of meta-analyses of published Mendelian randomization studies? The discrepancy is too large to be dismissed as a chance finding, suggest the researchers, but could be the result of publication bias—some studies might have been prioritized for publication because of the positive nature of their results whereas the unpublished datasets used in this study would not have been affected by any failure to publish null results. Overall, these findings reveal a serious example of publication bias and argue against the use of folate supplements as a means of reducing CHD risk.

Additional Information

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001177.

The American Heart Association provides information about CHD and tips on keeping the heart healthy; it also provides information on homocysteine, folic acid, and CHD, general information on supplements and heart health, and personal stories about CHD

The UK National Health Service Choices website provides information about CHD, including personal stories about CHD

Information is available from the British Heart Foundation on heart disease and keeping the heart healthy

The US National Heart Lung and Blood Institute also provides information on CHD (in English and Spanish)

MedlinePlus provides links to many other sources of information on CHD (in English and Spanish)

Wikipedia has a page on Mendelian randomization (note: Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)