The goal of cardiovascular disease (CVD) research using linked bespoke studies and electronic health records (CALIBER) is to provide evidence to inform health care and public health policy for CVDs across different stages of translation, from discovery, through evaluation in trials to implementation, where linkages to electronic health records provide new scientific opportunities. The initial approach of the CALIBER programme is characterized as follows: (i) Linkages of multiple electronic heath record sources: examples include linkages between the longitudinal primary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, the national registry of acute coronary syndromes (Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project), hospitalization and procedure data from Hospital Episode Statistics and cause-specific mortality and social deprivation data from the Office of National Statistics. Current cohort analyses involve a million people in initially healthy populations and disease registries with ∼105 patients. (ii) Linkages of bespoke investigator-led cohort studies (e.g. UK Biobank) to registry data (e.g. Myocardial Ischaemia National Audit Project), providing new means of ascertaining, validating and phenotyping disease. (iii) A common data model in which routine electronic health record data are made research ready, and sharable, by defining and curating with meta-data >300 variables (categorical, continuous, event) on risk factors, CVDs and non-cardiovascular comorbidities. (iv) Transparency: all CALIBER studies have an analytic protocol registered in the public domain, and data are available (safe haven model) for use subject to approvals. For more information, e-mail s.denaxas@ucl.ac.uk

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is the most common cause of incurable visual impairment in high-income countries. Previous studies report inconsistent associations between AMD and apolipoprotein E (APOE), a lipid transport protein involved in low-density cholesterol modulation. Potential interaction between APOE and sex, and smoking status, has been reported. We present a pooled analysis (n=21,160) demonstrating associations between late AMD and APOε4 (OR=0.72 per haplotype; CI: 0.65–0.74; P=4.41×10−11) and APOε2 (OR=1.83 for homozygote carriers; CI: 1.04–3.23; P=0.04), following adjustment for age-group and sex within each study and smoking status. No evidence of interaction between APOE and sex or smoking was found. Ever smokers had significant increased risk relative to never smokers for both neovascular (OR=1.54; CI: 1.38–1.72; P=2.8×10−15) and atrophic (OR=1.38; CI: 1.18–1.61; P=3.37×10−5) AMD but not early AMD (OR=0.94; CI: 0.86–1.03; P=0.16), implicating smoking as a major contributing factor to disease progression from early signs to the visually disabling late forms. Extended haplotype analysis incorporating rs405509 did not identify additional risks beyondε2 and ε4 haplotypes. Our expanded analysis substantially improves our understanding of the association between the APOE locus and AMD. It further provides evidence supporting the role of cholesterol modulation, and low-density cholesterol specifically, in AMD disease etiology.

Raised blood pressure (BP) is the world’s leading mortality risk factor. Childhood BP substantially predicts adult levels, and although both prenatal and postnatal growth influence it, their relative importance is debated. In a longitudinal study (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children) of 12 962 healthy children, we aimed to assess the relative contribution of different growth periods and of standardized measures of height versus weight-for-height (an adiposity marker) to BP at age 10 years. Conditional growth modeling was used in the 3230 boys and 3346 girls with BP measurements. Systolic BP was inversely associated with birth weight and weight-for-height but not length (−0.33, −0.27, and −0.12 mm Hg · SD−1; P=0.003, 0.035, and 0.35, respectively). In infancy, weight, weight-for-height, and height gains were all positively associated with systolic BP (0.90, 0.41, and 0.82 mm Hg · SD−1, respectively; all P<0.001). After infancy, all of the growth modalities were positively associated with systolic BP (weight, 1.91; weight-for-height, 1.56; height, 1.20 mm Hg · SD−1; all P<0.001). Similar but weaker associations were found with diastolic BP. Although BP at 10 years was associated with both prenatal and early postnatal growth, their influence was small compared with that of later growth. Because BP ranking relative to the population is substantially determined in the first decade of life, a focus on strategies to reduce the development of adiposity from infancy onward, rather than an emphasis on the nutrition and weight of mothers and infants, should bring greater reductions in population BP.

Background

Mendelian randomization (MR) studies use genetic variants mimicking the influence of a modifiable exposure to assess and quantify a causal association with an outcome, with an aim to avoid problems with confounding and reverse causality affecting other types of observational studies.

Aim

We evaluated genetic markers that index differences in 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) as instruments for MR studies on vitamin D.

Methods and Findings

We used data from up-to 6,877 participants in the 1958 British birth cohort with information on genetic markers and 25(OH)D. As potential instruments, we selected 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) which are located in the vitamin D metabolism pathway or affect skin pigmentation/tanning, including 4 SNPs from genome-wide association (GWA) meta-analyses on 25(OH)D. We analyzed SNP associations with 25(OH)D and evaluated the use of allele scores dividing genes to those affecting 25(OH)D synthesis (DHCR7, CYP2R1) and metabolism (GC, CYP24A1, CYP27B1). In addition to the GWA SNPs, only two SNPs (CYP27B1, OCA2) showed evidence for association with 25(OH)D, with the OCA2 association abolished after lifestyle adjustment. Per allele differences varied between −0.02 and −0.08 nmol/L (P≤0.02 for all), with a 6.1 nmol/L and a 10.2 nmol/L difference in 25(OH)D between individuals with highest compared lowest number of risk alleles in synthesis and metabolism allele scores, respectively. Individual SNPs but not allele scores showed associations with lifestyle factors. An exception was geographical region which was associated with synthesis score. Illustrative power calculations (80% power, 5% alpha) suggest that approximately 80,000 participants are required to establish a causal effect of vitamin D on blood pressure using the synthesis allele score.

Conclusions

Combining SNPs into allele scores provides a more powerful instrument for MR analysis than a single SNP in isolation. Population stratification and the potential for pleiotropic effects need to be considered in MR studies on vitamin D.

OBJECTIVE

In the general, nondiabetic population, fasting glucose increases only slightly over time, whereas 2-h postload glucose shows a much steeper age-related rise. The reasons underlying these different age trajectories are unknown. We investigated whether common genetic variants associated with fasting and 2-h glucose contribute to age-related changes of these traits.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We studied 5,196 nondiabetic participants of the Whitehall II cohort (aged 40–78 years) attending up to four 5-yearly oral glucose tolerance tests. A genetic score was calculated separately for fasting and 2-h glucose, including 16 and 5 single nucleotide polymorphisms, respectively. Longitudinal modeling with age centered at 55 years was used to study the effects of each genotype and genetic score on fasting and 2-h glucose and their interactions with age, adjusting for sex and time-varying BMI.

RESULTS

The fasting glucose genetic score was significantly associated with fasting glucose with a 0.029 mmol/L (95% CI 0.023–0.034) difference (P = 2.76 × 10−21) per genetic score point, an association that remained constant over time (age interaction P = 0.17). Two-hour glucose levels differed by 0.076 mmol/L (0.047–0.105) per genetic score point (P = 3.1 × 10−7); notably, this effect became stronger with increasing age by 0.006 mmol/L (0.003–0.009) per genetic score point per year (age interaction P = 3.0 × 10−5), resulting in diverging age trajectories by genetic score.

CONCLUSIONS

Common genetic variants contribute to the age-related rise of 2-h glucose levels, whereas associations of variants for fasting glucose are constant over time, in line with stable age trajectories of fasting glucose.

Background

Two single-nucleotide polymorphisms, rs1051730 and rs16969968, located within the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor gene cluster on chromosome 15q25 locus, are associated with heaviness of smoking, risk for lung cancer, and other smoking-related health outcomes. Previous studies have typically relied on self-reported smoking behavior, which may not fully capture interindividual variation in tobacco exposure.

Methods

We investigated the association of rs1051730 and rs16969968 genotype (referred to as rs1051730–rs16969968, because these are in perfect linkage disequilibrium and interchangeable) with both self-reported daily cigarette consumption and biochemically measured plasma or serum cotinine levels among cigarette smokers. Summary estimates and descriptive statistical data for 12 364 subjects were obtained from six independent studies, and 2932 smokers were included in the analyses. Linear regression was used to calculate the per-allele association of rs1051730–rs16969968 genotype with cigarette consumption and cotinine levels in current smokers for each study. Meta-analysis of per-allele associations was conducted using a random effects method. The likely resulting association between genotype and lung cancer risk was assessed using published data on the association between cotinine levels and lung cancer risk. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

Pooled per-allele associations showed that current smokers with one or two copies of the rs1051730–rs16969968 risk allele had increased self-reported cigarette consumption (mean increase in unadjusted number of cigarettes per day per allele = 1.0 cigarette, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.57 to 1.43 cigarettes, P = 5.22 × 10−6) and cotinine levels (mean increase in unadjusted cotinine levels per allele = 138.72 nmol/L, 95% CI = 97.91 to 179.53 nmol/L, P = 2.71 × 10−11). The increase in cotinine levels indicated an increased risk of lung cancer with each additional copy of the rs1051730–rs16969968 risk allele (per-allele odds ratio = 1.31, 95% CI = 1.21 to 1.42).

Conclusions

Our data show a stronger association of rs1051730–rs16969968 genotype with objective measures of tobacco exposure compared with self-reported cigarette consumption. The association of these variants with lung cancer risk is likely to be mediated largely, if not wholly, via tobacco exposure.

Aims

To examine the associations of several markers of adiposity and a wide range of cardiovascular risk factors and biomarkers in pre-pubertal children.

Methods and results

Four measures of adiposity,body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-determined fat mass, and leptin concentration, were available in up to 7589 children aged 8.8–11.7 (9.9 mean) years from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Thirteen per cent of boys and 18.8% of girls were overweight, and 5.3% of boys and 5% of girls were obese. Body mass index was highly correlated with waist circumference (r = 0.91), DXA fat mass (r = 0.87), and leptin concentration (r = 0.75), and all had similar associations with cardiovascular risk factors. A 1 kg/m2 greater BMI was associated with 1.4mmHg (95% CI 1.25–1.44) higher systolic blood pressure (BP). In 5002 children, a 1 kg/m2 greater BMI was associated with a 0.05 mmol/L (95% CI 0.036–0.055) higher non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and 0.03 mmol/L (95% CI −0.034 to −0.025) lower HDL cholesterol. There were also graded associations with apolipoproteins A1 and B, interleukin-6, and C-reactive protein. Comparing children who were obese with those who were normal weight, the odds ratio for hypertension was 10.7 (95% CI 7.2–15.9) for boys and 13.5 (95% CI 9.4–19.5) for girls.

Conclusion

In pre-pubertal UK children, overweight/obesity is common and has broadly similar associations with BP, HDL cholesterol, and non-HDL cholesterol to those observed in adults. Future research should evaluate whether effective interventions to maintain healthy weight in childhood could have important benefits for adult cardiovascular risk.

Background

Evidence for the associations of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the F7 gene and factor VII (FVII) levels and with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is inconsistent. We examined whether F7 tagging SNPs and haplotypes were associated with FVII levels, coagulation activation markers (CAMs) and CHD risk in two cohorts of UK men.

Methods

Genotypes for eight SNPs and baseline levels of FVIIc, FVIIag, and CAMs (including FVIIa) were determined in 2773 healthy men from the Second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS-II). A second cohort, Whitehall II study (WH-II, n=4055), was used for replication analysis of FVIIc levels and CHD-risk.

Results

In NPHS-II the minor alleles of three SNPs (rs555212, rs762635, and rs510317; haplotype H2) were associated with higher levels of FVIIag, FVIIc, and FVIIa, while the minor allele for two SNPs (I/D323, and rs6046; haplotype H5) were associated with lower levels. Adjusted for classical risk factors, H2 carriers had a CHD Hazard Ratio of 1.34 (CI 95%: 1.12–1.59; independent of FVIIc), while H5 carriers had a CHD-risk of 1.29 (CI 95%: 1.01–1.56; not independent of FVIIc) and significantly lower CAMs. Effects of haplotypes on FVIIc levels were replicated in WH-II, as was association of H5 with higher CHD-risk (pooled-estimate OR 1.16 [1.00–1.36], P=0.05), but surprisingly, H2 exhibited a reduced risk for CHD.

Conclusion

tSNPs in the F7 gene strongly influence FVII levels. The haplotype associated with low FVIIc level, with particularly reduced functional activity, was consistently associated with increased risk for CHD, while the haplotype associated with high FVIIc level was not.

Background

Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype (ε2/ε3/ε4: rs429358 ε4 allele; rs7412 ε2 allele) is strongly associated with both lipid levels and Alzheimer's disease. Although there is also evidence of milder cognitive impairment in later life in carriers of the APOE ε4 allele, there have been few studies investigating the impact of APOE genotype on cognitive function in children.

Methods

We determined APOE genotype in 5995 children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and investigated associations between APOE genotype and plasma lipids (at age 9), IQ (at age 8), memory (at ages 8 and 10), and performance in school attainment tests (at ages 7, 11, and 14).

Results

Observed genotype group counts were consistent with Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium (χ2p value = .84). There were strong relationships between APOE genotype and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and triglycerides, which follow the same patterns as in adults. There was no strong evidence to suggest that APOE genotype was associated with IQ (all p values ≥ .46), memory function (p ≥ .35), or school attainment test results (p ≥ .28).

Conclusion

Although APOE genotype does have strong associations with lipid levels in childhood, there does not seem to be meaningful effects on cognitive performance, suggesting that any detrimental effects of the ε4 allele on cognitive function are not important until later life.

Aims

To assess the feasibility and reproducibility of non-invasive vascular assessment in a childhood population setting and identify the determinants of vascular phenotype in early life.

Methods and results

We studied 7557 children (age 9.8–12.3 years) participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Six research technicians underwent a 5-month training protocol to enable study of brachial artery endothelial function by flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) and arterial stiffness by carotid to radial pulse wave velocity (PWV) and brachial distensibility [distensibility coefficient (DC)]. Reproducibility studies were performed at the beginning, the middle, and the end of the study. A blinded repeat evaluation of a random selection of 3% of the cohort was also undertaken throughout the study. The effect of anthropometric and environmental factors on each measure was examined. Successful measures were obtained in 88, 95, and 87% of the studied children for FMD, PWV, and DC, respectively. The coefficients of variation between technicians for FMD, PWV, and DC were 10.5, 4.6, and 6.6% at the beginning of the study and reached 7.7, 4.1, and 10% at the end. Baseline vessel diameter and gender were important determinants of all the vascular measures, with a small effect of room and skin temperatures on FMD and PWV. Boys consistently had lower FMD and DC and higher PWV measures (P < 0.01 for all).

Conclusion

Reproducible, high-quality assessments of vascular structure and function in children can be made on a large scale in field studies by suitably trained non-specialist operators. This study provides an invaluable resource for assessing the impact of early influences, genetic, and environmental factors on arterial phenotype.

Anoop Shah and colleagues performed a retrospective cohort study and a systematic review, and show evidence that in people with stable coronary disease there were threshold hemoglobin values below which mortality increased in a graded, continuous fashion.

Background

Low haemoglobin concentration has been associated with adverse prognosis in patients with angina and myocardial infarction (MI), but the strength and shape of the association and the presence of any threshold has not been precisely evaluated.

Methods and findings

A retrospective cohort study was carried out using the UK General Practice Research Database. 20,131 people with a new diagnosis of stable angina and no previous acute coronary syndrome, and 14,171 people with first MI who survived for at least 7 days were followed up for a mean of 3.2 years. Using semi-parametric Cox regression and multiple adjustment, there was evidence of threshold haemoglobin values below which mortality increased in a graded continuous fashion. For men with MI, the threshold value was 13.5 g/dl (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.2–13.9); the 29.5% of patients with haemoglobin below this threshold had an associated hazard ratio for mortality of 2.00 (95% CI 1.76–2.29) compared to those with haemoglobin values in the lowest risk range. Women tended to have lower threshold haemoglobin values (e.g, for MI 12.8 g/dl; 95% CI 12.1–13.5) but the shape and strength of association did not differ between the genders, nor between patients with angina and MI. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis that identified ten previously published studies, reporting a total of only 1,127 endpoints, but none evaluated thresholds of risk.

Conclusions

There is an association between low haemoglobin concentration and increased mortality. A large proportion of patients with coronary disease have haemoglobin concentrations below the thresholds of risk defined here. Intervention trials would clarify whether increasing the haemoglobin concentration reduces mortality.

Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Editors' Summary

Background

Coronary artery disease is the main cause of death in high-income countries and the second most common cause of death in middle- and low-income countries, accounting for 16.3%, 13.9%, and 9.4% of all deaths, respectively, in 2004. Many risks factors, such as high blood pressure and high blood cholesterol level, are known to be associated with coronary artery disease, and prevention and treatment of such factors remains one of the key strategies in the management of coronary artery disease. Recent studies have suggested that low hemoglobin may be associated with mortality in patients with coronary artery disease. Therefore, using blood hemoglobin level as a prognostic biomarker for patients with stable coronary artery disease may be of potential benefit especially as measurement of hemoglobin is almost universal in such patients and there are available interventions that effectively increase hemoglobin concentration.

Why was This Study Done?

Much more needs to be understood about the relationship between low hemoglobin and coronary artery disease before hemoglobin levels can potentially be used as a clinical prognostic biomarker. Previous studies have been limited in their ability to describe the shape of this relationship—which means that it is uncertain whether there is a “best” hemoglobin threshold or a continuous graded relationship from “good” to “bad”—to assess gender differences, and to compare patients with angina or who have experienced previous myocardial infarction. In order to inform these knowledge gaps, the researchers conducted a retrospective analysis of patients from a prospective observational cohort as well as a systematic review and meta-analysis (statistical analysis) of previous studies.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

The researchers conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of previous studies and found ten relevant studies, but none evaluated thresholds of risk, only linear relationships.

The researchers carried out a new study using the UK's General Practice Research Database—a national research tool that uses anonymized electronic clinical records of a representative sample of the UK population, with details of consultations, diagnoses, referrals, prescriptions, and test results—as the basis for their analysis. They identified and collected information from two cohorts of patients: those with new onset stable angina and no previous acute coronary syndrome; and those with a first myocardial infarction (heart attack). For these patients, the researchers also looked at all values of routinely recorded blood parameters (including hemoglobin) and information on established cardiovascular risk factors, such as smoking. The researchers followed up patients using death of any cause as a primary endpoint and put this data into a statistical model to identify upper and lower thresholds of an optimal hemoglobin range beyond which mortality risk increased.

The researchers found that there was a threshold hemoglobin value below which mortality continuously increased in a graded manner. For men with myocardial infarction, the threshold value was 13.5 g/dl: 29.5% of patients had hemoglobin below this threshold and had a hazard ratio for mortality of 2.00 compared to those with hemoglobin values in the lowest risk range. Women had a lower threshold hemoglobin value than men: 12.8 g/dl for women with myocardial infarction, but the shape and strength of association did not differ between the genders, or between patients with angina and myocardial infarction.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These findings suggest that there are thresholds of hemoglobin that are associated with increased risk of mortality in patients with angina or myocardial infarction. A substantial proportion of patients (15%–30%) have a hemoglobin level that places them at markedly higher risk of death compared to patients with lowest risk hemoglobin levels and importantly, these thresholds are higher than clinicians might anticipate—and are remarkably similar to World Health Organization anemia thresholds of 12 g/dl for women and 13 g/dl for men. Despite the limitations of these observational findings, this study supports the rationale for conducting future randomized controlled trials to assess whether hemoglobin levels are causal and whether clinicians should intervene to increase hemoglobin levels, for example by oral iron supplementation.

Additional Information

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000439.

Wikipedia provides information about hemoglobin (note that Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)

The World Health Organization provides an overview of the global prevalence of coronary artery disease, a factsheet on the top ten causes of death, as well as information on anemia

Background Cigarette smoking is associated with lower body mass index (BMI), and a commonly cited reason for unwillingness to quit smoking is a concern about weight gain. Common variation in the CHRNA5-CHRNA3-CHRNB4 gene region (chromosome 15q25) is robustly associated with smoking quantity in smokers, but its association with BMI is unknown. We hypothesized that genotype would accurately reflect smoking exposure and that, if smoking were causally related to weight, it would be associated with BMI in smokers, but not in never smokers.

Methods We stratified nine European study samples by smoking status and, in each stratum, analysed the association between genotype of the 15q25 SNP, rs1051730, and BMI. We meta-analysed the results (n = 24 198) and then tested for a genotype × smoking status interaction.

Results There was no evidence of association between BMI and genotype in the never smokers {difference per T-allele: 0.05 kg/m2 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): −0.05 to 0.18]; P = 0.25}. However, in ever smokers, each additional smoking-related T-allele was associated with a 0.23 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.13–0.31) lower BMI (P = 8 × 10−6). The effect size was larger in current [0.33 kg/m2 lower BMI per T-allele (95% CI: 0.18–0.48); P = 6 × 10−5], than in former smokers [0.16 kg/m2 (95% CI: 0.03–0.29); P = 0.01]. There was strong evidence of genotype × smoking interaction (P = 0.0001).

Conclusions Smoking status modifies the association between the 15q25 variant and BMI, which strengthens evidence that smoking exposure is causally associated with reduced BMI. Smoking cessation initiatives might be more successful if they include support to maintain a healthy BMI.

Background:

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibitors raise HDL-cholesterol but torcetrapib, the first-in-class inhibitor tested in a large outcome trial caused unexpected blood pressure elevation and increased cardiovascular events. Whether the hypertensive effect resulted from CETP-inhibition or an off-target action of torcetrapib has been debated. We hypothesised that common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the CETP-gene could help distinguish mechanism-based from off-target actions of CETP-inhibitors to inform on the validity of CETP as a therapeutic target.

Methods and Results

We compared the effect of CETP SNPs and torcetrapib treatment on lipid fractions, blood pressure and electrolytes in up to 67,687 individuals from genetic studies and 17,911 from randomised trials. CETP SNPs and torcetrapib treatment reduced CETP activity and had directionally concordant effect on eight lipid and lipoprotein traits (total-, LDL- and HDL-cholesterol, HDL2, HDL3, apolipoproteins A-I, -B, and triglycerides), with the genetic effect on HDL-cholesterol (0.13 mmol/L; 95% CI: 0.11, 0.14) being consistent with that expected of a 10 mg dose of torcetrapib (0.13 mmol/L; 0.10, 0.15). In trials, 60mg torcetrapib elevated systolic and diastolic blood pressure by 4.47mmHg (4.10, 4.84) and 2.08mmHg (1.84, 2.31) respectively. However, the effect of CETP SNPs on systolic 0.16mmHg (−0.28, 0.60) and diastolic blood pressure −0.04mmHg (−0.36, 0.28) was null and significantly different from that expected of 10 mg torcetrapib.

Conclusions:

Discordance in the effects of CETP SNPs and torcetrapib treatment on blood pressure despite the concordant effects on lipids indicates the hypertensive action of torcetrapib is unlikely to be due to CETP-inhibition, or shared by chemically dissimilar CETP inhibitors. Genetic studies could find use in drug development programmes as a new source of randomised evidence for drug target validation in man.

Background

Nitric oxide (NO) synthesized by endothelial cells is known to be a potent vasodilator. It has been suggested that polymorphisms in endothelial nitric oxide synthase (eNOS) can affect the response of the vascular endothelium to increased oxidative stress. The objective of the present study was to determine the presence of G894T (rs1799983), intron-4 (27-bp TR) and -T786C (rs2070744) polymorphisms in the eNOS gene among the Colombian general population.

Results

Genotype and allele frequencies showed significant differences in their distribution. White, black and mixed populations were in HW equilibrium for the variants in 27-bp TR- and rs1799983, but the black population was in HW disequilibrium for rs2070744 (p < 0.001). Allele "T" of rs1799983 polymorphisms was more common in the white population (26,5%) than the others, while allele "C" of rs2070744 polymorphisms had a similar frequency in all populations, and the allele 4a from 27-bp TR was more frequent in the black population (26,2%) than the others. Similar differences were found when genotypes were analyzed.

Conclusion

The findings suggest that there is a substantial difference in the distribution of eNOS polymorphisms between different ethnic groups. These results could aid the understanding of inter-ethnic differences in NO bioavailability, cardiovascular risk, and response to drugs.

Background Non-uniform reporting of relevant relationships and metrics hampers critical appraisal of the clinical utility of C-reactive protein (CRP) measurement for prediction of later coronary events.

Methods We evaluated the predictive performance of CRP in the Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHS-II) and the Edinburgh Artery Study (EAS) comparing discrimination by area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration and reclassification. We set the findings in the context of a systematic review of published studies comparing different available and imputed measures of prediction. Risk estimates per-quantile of CRP were pooled using a random effects model to infer the shape of the CRP-coronary event relationship.

Results NPHS-II and EAS (3441 individuals, 309 coronary events): CRP alone provided modest discrimination for coronary heart disease (AUC 0.61 and 0.62 in NPHS-II and EAS, respectively) and only modest improvement in the discrimination of a Framingham-based risk score (FRS) (increment in AUC 0.04 and –0.01, respectively). Risk models based on FRS alone and FRS + CRP were both well calibrated and the net reclassification improvement (NRI) was 8.5% in NPHS-II and 8.8% in EAS with four risk categories, falling to 4.9% and 3.0% for 10-year coronary disease risk threshold of 15%. Systematic review (31 prospective studies 84 063 individuals, 11 252 coronary events): pooled inferred values for the AUC for CRP alone were 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), 0.59 (0.57, 0.61) and 0.57 (0.54, 0.61) for studies of <5, 5–10 and >10 years follow up, respectively. Evidence from 13 studies (7201 cases) indicated that CRP did not consistently improve performance of the Framingham risk score when assessed by discrimination, with AUC increments in the range 0–0.15. Evidence from six studies (2430 cases) showed that CRP provided statistically significant but quantitatively small improvement in calibration of models based on established risk factors in some but not all studies. The wide overlap of CRP values among people who later suffered events and those who did not appeared to be explained by the consistently log-normal distribution of CRP and a graded continuous increment in coronary risk across the whole range of values without a threshold, such that a large proportion of events occurred among the many individuals with near average levels of CRP.

Conclusions CRP does not perform better than the Framingham risk equation for discrimination. The improvement in risk stratification or reclassification from addition of CRP to models based on established risk factors is small and inconsistent. Guidance on the clinical use of CRP measurement in the prediction of coronary events may require updating in light of this large comparative analysis.

Objectives To assess the performance of a panel of common single nucleotide polymorphisms (genotypes) associated with type 2 diabetes in distinguishing incident cases of future type 2 diabetes (discrimination), and to examine the effect of adding genetic information to previously validated non-genetic (phenotype based) models developed to estimate the absolute risk of type 2 diabetes.

Design Workplace based prospective cohort study with three 5 yearly medical screenings.

Participants 5535 initially healthy people (mean age 49 years; 33% women), of whom 302 developed new onset type 2 diabetes over 10 years.

Outcome measures Non-genetic variables included in two established risk models—the Cambridge type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, drug treatment, family history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, smoking status) and the Framingham offspring study type 2 diabetes risk score (age, sex, parental history of type 2 diabetes, body mass index, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose)—and 20 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with susceptibility to type 2 diabetes. Cases of incident type 2 diabetes were defined on the basis of a standard oral glucose tolerance test, self report of a doctor’s diagnosis, or the use of anti-diabetic drugs.

Results A genetic score based on the number of risk alleles carried (range 0-40; area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.54, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.58) and a genetic risk function in which carriage of risk alleles was weighted according to the summary odds ratios of their effect from meta-analyses of genetic studies (area under receiver operating characteristics curve 0.55, 0.51 to 0.59) did not effectively discriminate cases of diabetes. The Cambridge risk score (area under curve 0.72, 0.69 to 0.76) and the Framingham offspring risk score (area under curve 0.78, 0.75 to 0.82) led to better discrimination of cases than did genotype based tests. Adding genetic information to phenotype based risk models did not improve discrimination and provided only a small improvement in model calibration and a modest net reclassification improvement of about 5% when added to the Cambridge risk score but not when added to the Framingham offspring risk score.

Conclusion The phenotype based risk models provided greater discrimination for type 2 diabetes than did models based on 20 common independently inherited diabetes risk alleles. The addition of genotypes to phenotype based risk models produced only minimal improvement in accuracy of risk estimation assessed by recalibration and, at best, a minor net reclassification improvement. The major translational application of the currently known common, small effect genetic variants influencing susceptibility to type 2 diabetes is likely to come from the insight they provide on causes of disease and potential therapeutic targets.

Background

Studies of the genetic basis of drug response could help clarify mechanisms of drug action/metabolism, and facilitate development of genotype-based predictive tests of efficacy or toxicity (pharmacogenetics).

Objectives

We conducted a systematic review and field synopsis of pharmacogenetic studies to quantify the scope and quality of available evidence in this field in order to inform future research.

Data Sources

Original research articles were identified in Medline, reference lists from 24 meta-analyses/systematic reviews/review articles and U.S. Food and Drug Administration website of approved pharmacogenetic tests.

Study Eligibility Criteria, Participants, and Intervention Criteria

We included any study in which either intended or adverse response to drug therapy was examined in relation to genetic variation in the germline or cancer cells in humans.

Study Appraisal and Synthesis Methods

Study characteristics and data reported in abstracts were recorded. We further analysed full text from a random 10% subset of articles spanning the different subclasses of study.

Results

From 102,264 Medline hits and 1,641 articles from other sources, we identified 1,668 primary research articles (1987 to 2007, inclusive). A high proportion of remaining articles were reviews/commentaries (ratio of reviews to primary research approximately 25∶1). The majority of studies (81.8%) were set in Europe and North America focussing on cancer, cardiovascular disease and neurology/psychiatry. There was predominantly a candidate gene approach using common alleles, which despite small sample sizes (median 93 [IQR 40–222]) with no trend to an increase over time, generated a high proportion (74.5%) of nominally significant (p<0.05) reported associations suggesting the possibility of significance-chasing bias. Despite 136 examples of gene/drug interventions being the subject of ≥4 studies, only 31 meta-analyses were identified. The majority (69.4%) of end-points were continuous and likely surrogate rather than hard (binary) clinical end-points.

Conclusions and Implications of Key Findings

The high expectation but limited translation of pharmacogenetic research thus far may be explained by the preponderance of reviews over primary research, small sample sizes, a mainly candidate gene approach, surrogate markers, an excess of nominally positive to truly positive associations and paucity of meta-analyses. Recommendations based on these findings should inform future study design to help realise the goal of personalised medicines.

Systematic Review Registration Number

Not Registered

Individuals at risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) show multiple correlations across blood biomarkers. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) indexing biomarker differences could help distinguish causal from confounded associations because of their random allocation prior to disease. We examined the association of 948 SNPs in 122 candidate genes with 12 CHD-associated phenotypes in 2775 middle aged men (a genic scan). Of these, 140 SNPs indexed differences in HDL- and LDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, factor VII, apolipoproteins AI and B, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, homocysteine or folate, some with large effect sizes and highly significant P-values (e.g. 2.15 standard deviations at P = 9.2 × 10−140 for F7 rs6046 and FVII levels). Top ranking SNPs were then tested for association with additional biomarkers correlated with the index phenotype (phenome scan). Several SNPs (e.g. in APOE, CETP, LPL, APOB and LDLR) influenced multiple phenotypes, while others (e.g. in F7, CRP and FBB) showed restricted association to the index marker. SNPs influencing six blood proteins were used to evaluate the nature of the associations between correlated blood proteins utilizing Mendelian randomization. Multiple SNPs were associated with CHD-related quantitative traits, with some associations restricted to a single marker and others exerting a wider genetic ‘footprint’. SNPs indexing biomarkers provide new tools for investigating biological relationships and causal links with disease. Broader and deeper integrated analyses, linking genomic with transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic analysis, as well as clinical events could, in principle, better delineate CHD causing pathways amenable to treatment.

Objective To quantify the risk of future cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and mortality after pre-eclampsia.

Design Systematic review and meta-analysis.

Data sources Embase and Medline without language restrictions, including papers published between 1960 and December 2006, and hand searching of reference lists of relevant articles and reviews for additional reports.

Review methods Prospective and retrospective cohort studies were included, providing a dataset of 3 488 160 women, with 198 252 affected by pre-eclampsia (exposure group) and 29 495 episodes of cardiovascular disease and cancer (study outcomes).

Results After pre-eclampsia women have an increased risk of vascular disease. The relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for hypertension were 3.70 (2.70 to 5.05) after 14.1 years weighted mean follow-up, for ischaemic heart disease 2.16 (1.86 to 2.52) after 11.7 years, for stroke 1.81 (1.45 to 2.27) after 10.4 years, and for venous thromboembolism 1.79 (1.37 to 2.33) after 4.7 years. No increase in risk of any cancer was found (0.96, 0.73 to 1.27), including breast cancer (1.04, 0.78 to 1.39) 17 years after pre-eclampsia. Overall mortality after pre-eclampsia was increased: 1.49 (1.05 to 2.14) after 14.5 years.

Conclusions A history of pre-eclampsia should be considered when evaluating risk of cardiovascular disease in women. This association might reflect a common cause for pre-eclampsia and cardiovascular disease, or an effect of pre-eclampsia on disease development, or both. No association was found between pre-eclampsia and future cancer.

Background

Ischaemic stroke in persons of European descent has a genetic basis, but whether the stroke-susceptibility alleles, the strength of any association, and the extent of their attributable risks are the same in persons of non-European descent remains unanswered. Whether ethnicity itself has a relevant or substantial contribution on those effect estimates is controversial. Comparative analyses between the ethnic groups may allow general conclusions to be drawn about polygenic disorders.

Methods and Findings

We performed a literature-based systematic review of genetic association studies in stroke in persons of non-European descent. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were determined for each gene–disease association using fixed and random effect models. We further performed a comparative genetic analysis across the different ethnic groups (including persons of European descent derived from our previous meta-analysis) to determine if genetic risks varied by ethnicity. Following a review of 500 manuscripts, eight candidate gene variants were analysed among 32,431 individuals (12,883 cases and 19,548 controls), comprising mainly Chinese, Japanese, and Korean individuals. Of the eight candidate genes studied, three were associated with ischaemic stroke: the angiotensin I converting enzyme (ACE) insertion/deletion (I/D) polymorphism with a mean OR of 1.90 (95% CI 1.23–2.93) in the Chinese and 1.74 (95% CI 0.88–3.42) in the Japanese; the summary OR for the C677T variant of 5,10-methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) was 1.18 (95% CI 0.90–1.56) in Chinese and 1.34 (95% CI 0.87–2.06) in Koreans; and the pooled OR for the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene was 2.18 (95% CI 1.52–3.13) in Chinese and 1.51 (95% CI 0.93–2.45) in Japanese. Comparing the commonly investigated stroke genes among the Asian groups against studies in persons of European descent, we found an absence of any substantial qualitative or quantitative interaction for ORs by ethnicity. However, the number of individuals recruited per study in the studies of persons of non-European descent was significantly smaller compared to studies of persons of European descent, despite a similar number of studies conducted per gene.

Conclusions

These data suggest that genetic associations studied to date for ischaemic stroke among persons of non-European descent are similar to those for persons of European descent. Claims of differences in genetic effects among different ethnic populations for complex disorders such as stroke may be overstated. However, due to the limited number of gene variants evaluated, the relatively smaller number of individuals included in the meta-analyses of persons of non-European descent in stroke, and the possibility of publication bias, the existence of allele variants with differential effects by ethnicity cannot be excluded.

This meta-analysis found that genetic associations so far studied for ischemic stroke among non-Europeans are similar to those found for persons of European descent.

Editors' Summary

Background.

A stroke occurs when the blood supply to part of the brain is interrupted, either because a blood vessel supplying the brain becomes blocked or because one ruptures. Strokes are a substantial cause of death and disability worldwide, with most of the burden affecting people living in developed countries. Most strokes fall into a category termed ischemic stroke. This type is caused by blockages in the blood vessels supplying the brain, which can happen when there is a buildup of fatty deposits or clots within the blood vessels. Many of the risk factors for this particular type of stroke are affected by an individual's behavior, including for example smoking, high blood pressure, diabetes, inactivity, and so on. In addition, variations in an individual's genetic makeup might affect his or her chance of having a stroke. Previous research studies have shown that variants in many different genes are likely to be involved in determining the overall risk of having a stroke, each variant contributing in a small way to the risk.

Why Was This Study Done?

The group performing this study had previously carried out a systematic review of existing research, looking specifically at the genetics of ischemic stroke among people of European origin (often called “Caucasians”). However, it was not obvious whether the genetic risk factors for stroke they found would be the same for people from a different ethnic background. Therefore the research group wanted to find out what the genetic risk factors were for stroke among people of non-European origin and to compare these findings with those of their previous systematic review. This research might help to find out whether the genetic risk factors for stroke were different in people from different parts of the world.

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

As a starting point, these researchers wanted to find all the different studies that had already been carried out examining the effect of genetic risk factors on stroke among people of non-European origin. To do this, searches were carried out of electronic databases using a particular set of terms. All resulting studies that involved genetic research in people of non-European origin and in which strokes were confirmed by brain scanning were then evaluated in more detail. The findings of different studies were combined if at least three studies were available for the same genetic variant. Eventually 60 studies were found that looked at the association between eight specific gene variants and stroke. The only data that could be included in a combined analysis came from Chinese, Japanese, and Korean populations. Three of the eight gene variants were associated with an increased risk of stroke. Those three gene variants were ACE I/D (a variant in the gene coding for angiotensin 1-converting enzyme, which is involved in controlling blood pressure); a variant in MTHFR (which codes for the enzyme methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase, and which converts certain amino acids within cells); and a variant in the gene APOE, which codes for a protein that plays a role in breaking down fats. The researchers then compared their findings from this study with the findings of a previous systematic review they had carried out among people of European origin. Overall, each gene studied seemed to have a similar effect in the different populations, with the exception of APOE, which seemed to be associated with stroke in the Asian studies but not in the studies from people of non-European origin. The researchers also found that generally the Asian studies suggested a slightly greater effect of each gene variant than the studies in people of non-European origin did.

What Do These Findings Mean?

These findings suggest that, with the possible exception of APOE, similar gene variants play a role in determining stroke risk in people of European origin and Asian populations. Although generally the studies examined here suggested a slightly greater effect of these gene variants in Asian populations, this is not necessarily a real finding. This greater effect may just be due to small-study bias. Small-study bias describes the observation that small research studies are more likely to produce a false positive result than are large research studies. Therefore, future studies that examine the genetic basis of stroke should recruit much larger numbers of participants from populations made up of people of non-European origin than has previously been the case.

Additional Information.

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0040131.

Health Encyclopedia entry on stroke from NHS Direct (UK National Health Service patient information)

Stroke Information page from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (provided by the US National Institutes of Health)

The Stroke Association, a UK charity funding this study

Information from the World Health Organization on the distribution and burden of stroke worldwide

The WHO has a world atlas of heart disease and stroke

Background

Inappropriate activation of the renin–angiotensin system may play a part in the development of preeclampsia. An insertion/deletion polymorphism within the angiotensin-I converting enzyme gene (ACE-I/D) has shown to be reliably associated with differences in angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) activity. However, previous studies of the ACE-I/D variant and preeclampsia have been individually underpowered to detect plausible genotypic risks.

Methods and Findings

A prospective case-control study was conducted in 1,711 unrelated young pregnant women (665 preeclamptic and 1,046 healthy pregnant controls) recruited from five Colombian cities. Maternal blood was obtained to genotype for the ACE-I/D polymorphism. Crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) using logistic regression models were obtained to evaluate the strength of the association between ACE-I/D variant and preeclampsia risk. A meta-analysis was then undertaken of all published studies to February 2006 evaluating the ACE-I/D variant in preeclampsia. An additive model (per-D-allele) revealed a null association between the ACE-I/D variant and preeclampsia risk (crude OR = 0.95 [95% CI, 0.81–1.10]) in the new case-control study. Similar results were obtained after adjusting for confounders (adjusted per-allele OR = 0.90 [95% CI, 0.77–1.06]) and using other genetic models of inheritance. A meta-analysis (2,596 cases and 3,828 controls from 22 studies) showed a per-allele OR of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.07–1.49). An analysis stratified by study size showed an attenuated OR toward the null as study size increased.

Conclusions

It is highly likely that the observed small nominal increase in risk of preeclampsia associated with the ACE D-allele is due to small-study bias, similar to that observed in cardiovascular disease. Reliable assessment of the origins of preeclampsia using a genetic approach may require the establishment of a collaborating consortium to generate a dataset of adequate size.

The observed small increase in risk of preeclampsia associated with theACE D-allele is likely to be due to small-study bias, a similar result to that observed in cardiovascular disease.

Editors' Summary

Background.

Preeclampsia is a common condition affecting pregnant women worldwide; it is defined as the presence of increased blood pressure, together with protein in the urine. Although in many women preeclampsia may never result in symptoms, other women may experience headaches, problems with their vision, swollen ankles and feet, and other problems. Sometimes, preeclampsia progresses to eclampsia, in which potentially life-threatening seizures result. The causes of preeclampsia are not well understood, but several factors are known to contribute to the risk. These factors include diabetes, high blood pressure prior to pregnancy, obesity, and first pregnancy. There is also the possibility that preeclampsia has, at least in part, a genetic basis; the condition is more likely among women whose relatives have also had it. However, no definite genetic cause has yet been confirmed.

Why Was This Study Done?

A common variant in one particular gene, ACE, which codes for the angiotensin-1 converting enzyme, has been linked with preeclampsia in a number of different studies. The protein encoded by ACE is involved in controlling blood pressure and the balance of fluid and salts in the blood. However, many of the studies supposedly linking ACE and preeclampsia were done on very few participants. Small studies are more likely to generate “false positive” findings. Therefore, a group of investigators from Colombia and the UK wanted to find out whether they could reproduce the supposed link between the ACE gene variant and preeclampsia in a large study, and also to see whether the previous studies could have been “false positives.”

What Did the Researchers Do and Find?

These investigators carried out a case-control study. This means that women with preeclampsia (“cases”) were recruited, and compared with women similar in all other respects but who did not have preeclampsia (“controls”). In total 1,711 pregnant women from five Colombian cities were studied, of whom 665 had preeclampsia and 1,046 did not. Blood was taken from each participant and used for DNA sequencing of the ACE gene. The investigators then did a statistical comparison to see whether there was any association between preeclampsia and possession of a particular variant of the ACE gene. The results showed that there was no such association. Then, the investigators did a literature search to find all previous studies that had examined a possible link between variants of the ACE gene and preeclampsia. They found 22 studies reporting data obtained from 6,424 women (these figures include the results from the investigators' own case-control study described here). The data from all of these studies were then put together into a combined analysis. This combined analysis did suggest a small increase in the risk of preeclampsia in women with one particular variant in the ACE gene. However, this result was more likely in studies with small numbers of participants. Furthermore, the earliest studies done were most likely to show an effect, with the supposed link disappearing as more and more data were collected.

What Do These Findings Mean?

The findings presented here suggest that “small study bias” may explain the discrepancy between the results of the case-control study and the combined analysis. That is, studies involving few participants are less reliable and more likely to produce false-positive results. Therefore, it is possible that the proposed link between ACE gene variants and preeclampsia is a spurious one. The investigators propose that in future, collaborative research networks will be needed to carry out rigorous research on the genetics of preeclampsia. Such initiatives will help to overcome the problem of bias that can arise from small studies.

Additional Information.

Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030520.

Information for patients from NHS Direct (UK National Health Service) about preeclampsia

Medical encyclopedia entry on preeclampsia from MedLine Plus, supplied by the US National Library of Medicine

Information from the World Health Organization and Pan American Health Organization on maternal health in the Americas

Background

Pre-eclampsia is thought to have an important genetic component. Recently, pre-eclampsia has been associated in some studies with carriage of a common eNOS gene Glu298Asp polymorphism, a variant that leads to the replacement of glutamic acid by aspartic acid at codon 298.

Method

Healthy women with singleton pregnancies were recruited from 7 district general hospitals in London, UK. Women at high risk of pre-eclampsia were screened by uterine artery Doppler velocimetry at 22–24 weeks of gestation and maternal blood was obtained to genotype the eNOS Glu298Asp polymorphism. Odds ratios (OR) and 95%CI, using logistic regression methods, were obtained to evaluate the association between the Glu298Asp polymorphism and pre-eclampsia. A meta-analysis was then undertaken of all published studies up to November 2005 examining the association of eNOS Glu298Asp genotype and pre-eclampsia.

Results

89 women with pre-eclampsia and 349 controls were included in the new study. The Glu298Asp polymorphism in a recessive model was not significantly associated with pre-eclampsia (adjusted-OR: 0.83 [95%CI: 0.30–2.25]; p = 0.7). In the meta-analysis, under a recessive genetic model (1129 cases & 2384 controls) women homozygous for the Asp298 allele were not at significantly increased risk of pre-eclampsia (OR: 1.28 [95%CI: 0.76–2.16]; p = 0.34). A dominant model (1334 cases & 2894 controls) was associated with no increase of risk of pre-eclampsia for women carriers of the Asp298 allele (OR: 1.12 [95%CI: 0.84–1.49]; p = 0.42).

Conclusion

From the data currently available, the eNOS Glu298Asp polymorphism is not associated with a significant increased risk of pre-eclampsia. However, published studies have been underpowered, much larger studies are needed to confirm or refute a realistic genotypic risk of disease, but which might contribute to many cases of pre-eclampsia in the population.