Background. Obesity is characterized by liver steatosis, chronic inflammation, and increased liver enzymes, that is, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT), markers for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and liver fat content. Increased platelet counts (PCs) are associated with inflammatory conditions and are a valuable biomarker of the degree of fibrosis in NAFLD. We investigated alterations in PC, GGT, and ALT after biliopancreatic diversion with duodenal switch (BPD-DS) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP). Methods. Ten morbidly obese patients (body mass index, BMI: 53.5 ± 3.8 kg/m2) who underwent BPD-DS were evaluated preoperatively (baseline) and 1 year (1st followup) and 3 years (2nd followup) after surgery and compared with 21 morbidly obese patients (BMI: 42.3 ± 5.2 kg/m2) who underwent RYGBP. Results. Over the 3 years of followup, changes in BPD-DS and RYGBP patients (BPD-DS/RYGBP) were as follows: BMI (−44%/−24%), GGT (−63%/−52%), and ALT (−48%/−62%). PC decreased (−21%) statistically significantly only in BPD-DS patients. Conclusions. Morbidly obese patients treated by RYGBP or BPD-DS show sustained reductions in BMI, ALT, and GGT. The decrease in PC and liver enzymes after BPD-DS may reflect a more pronounced decrease of liver-fat-content-related inflammation and, as a result, a lowered secondary thrombocytosis.

Background

Impaired glucose metabolism has been linked with increased cancer risk, but the association between serum glucose and cancer risk remains unclear. We used repeated measurements of glucose and fructosamine to get more insight into the association between the glucose metabolism and risk of cancer.

Methods

We selected 11,998 persons (>20 years old) with four prospectively collected serum glucose and fructosamine measurements from the Apolipoprotein Mortality Risk (AMORIS) study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess standardized log of overall mean glucose and fructosamine in relation to cancer risk. Similar analyses were performed for tertiles of glucose and fructosamine and for different types of cancer.

Results

A positive trend was observed between standardized log overall mean glucose and overall cancer risk (HR = 1.08; 95% CI: 1.02–1.14). Including standardized log fructosamine in the model resulted in a stronger association between glucose and cancer risk and aninverse association between fructosamine and cancer risk (HR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.08–1.26 and HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.82–0.96, respectively). Cancer risks were highest among those in the highest tertile of glucose and lowest tertile of fructosamine. Similar findings were observed for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancer while none observed for breast cancer.

Conclusion

The contrasting effect between glucose, fructosamine, and cancer risk suggests the existence of distinct groups among those with impaired glucose metabolism, resulting in different cancer risks based on individual metabolic profiles. Further studies are needed to clarify whether glucose is a proxy of other lifestyle-related or metabolic factors.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the association between different blood lipid measures and risk of fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted an observational study of patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Baseline LDL cholesterol, non-HDL cholesterol, ratio of non-HDL to HDL cholesterol (non-HDL:HDL), and ratio of triacylglycerol to HDL cholesterol (TG:HDL) was measured in 18,673 patients aged 30–70 years, followed for a mean of 4.8 years from 2003 to 2007.

RESULTS

Hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD per 1-SD increment in lipid measures were 1.23 with non-HDL:HDL, 1.20 with non-HDL cholesterol, 1.17 with LDL cholesterol, and 1.15 with TG:HDL (all P < 0.001 when adjusted for clinical characteristics and nonlipid risk factors). The best global model fit was found with non-HDL:HDL. When patients within the lowest tertile of a lipid measure were compared with those with all lipid measures within the highest tertile, the adjusted HR for CHD was 0.62 with non-HDL:HDL <3.5 mmol/L, 0.65 with non-HDL cholesterol <3.3 mmol/L, and 0.70 with LDL cholesterol <2.5 mmol/L (all P < 0.001). The lowest tertile of LDL and non-HDL cholesterol corresponded with treatment targets according to U.S. and European guidelines. HRs for CHD were 0.52, 0.62, and 0.66 with the lowest deciles of non-HDL:HDL, non-HDL cholesterol, and LDL cholesterol ≤1.8 mmol/L (all P < 0.001). Mean TG:HDL was considerably lower in patients within the lowest tertile of non-HDL:HDL, 0.82 ± 0.47, than in those within the lowest tertile of LDL cholesterol (<2.5 mmol/L), 1.49 ± 1.03.

CONCLUSIONS

Non-HDL:HDL had a stronger effect on CHD risk than LDL cholesterol, and low TG:HDL values were more often seen within the lowest non-HDL:HDL tertile than within the lowest LDL cholesterol tertile. LDL cholesterol was not the best predictor of CHD risk in type 2 diabetes.

Objective

To evaluate the effectiveness and safety of metformin use in clinical practice in a large sample of pharmacologically treated patients with type 2 diabetes and different levels of renal function.

Design

Observational study between July 2004 and December 2010, mean follow-up 3.9 years.

Setting

Hospital outpatient clinics and primary care in Sweden.

Participants

51 675 men and women with type 2 diabetes, registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register, and on continuous glucose-lowering treatment with oral hypoglycaemic agents (OHAs) or insulin.

Main outcome measures

Risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD), all-cause mortality and acidosis/serious infection, associated with each treatment regimens, were analysed in all patients and in subgroups with different estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) intervals. Covariance adjustment and propensity scores were used to adjust for several baseline risk factors and characteristics at Cox regression.

Results

Compared with metformin in monotherapy, HRs for fatal/non-fatal CVD and all-cause mortality with all other OHAs combined (approximately 80% sulphonylureas) in monotherapy were 1.02 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.12) and 1.13 (1.01 to 1.27), while 1.18 (1.07 to 1.29) and 1.34 (1.19 to 1.50) with insulin in monotherapy, adjusting using propensity scores. Metformin, compared with any other treatment, showed reduced risks of acidosis/serious infection (adjusted HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74 to 0.97) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77 to 0.99), in patients with eGFR 45–60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and no increased risks of all-cause mortality, acidosis/serious infection or CVD were found in patients with eGFR 30–45 ml/min/1.73 m2.

Conclusions

Metformin showed lower risk than insulin for CVD and all-cause mortality and slightly lower risk for all-cause mortality compared with other OHA, in these 51 675 patients followed for 4 years. Patients with renal impairment showed no increased risk of CVD, all-cause mortality or acidosis/serious infection. In clinical practice, the benefits of metformin use clearly outbalance the risk of severe side effects.

Article summary

Article focus

To evaluate the risks of CVD, acidosis/serious infection and mortality associated with metformin and other glucose-lowering treatments, in a cohort of 51 675 type 2 diabetes patients and in subgroups with different degrees of renal impairment.

Key messages

Metformin was associated with reduced risk of CVD, acidosis/serious infection and all-cause mortality compared with insulin and a reduced risk of all-cause mortality compared with other OHAs.

The effects were consistent in patients with renal impairment (eGFR 45–60 ml/min/1.73 m2), and there were no increased risk of acidosis/serious infection even in patients with low renal function (eGFR 30–45 ml/min/1.73 m2).

Strengths and limitations of this study

A large cohort with comprehensive data on patient characteristics was studied.

A composite end point including diagnosis of acidosis, shock, acute renal failure and serious infections was used to evaluate the occurrence of lactic acidosis.

Background

Diabetes is associated with increased cancer risk. The underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Hyperglycemia might be one risk factor. HbA1c is an indicator of the blood glucose level over the latest 1 to 3 months. This study aimed to investigate association between HbA1c level and cancer risks in patients with type 2 diabetes based on real life situations.

Methods

This is a cohort study on 25,476 patients with type 2 diabetes registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Register from 1997–1999 and followed until 2009. Follow-up for cancer was accomplished through register linkage. We calculated incidences of and hazard ratios (HR) for cancer in groups categorized by HbA1c ≤58 mmol/mol (7.5%) versus >58 mmol/mol, by quartiles of HbA1c, and by HbA1c continuously at Cox regression, with covariance adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, smoking and insulin treatment, or adjusting with a propensity score.

Results

Comparing HbA1c >58 mmol/mol with ≤58 mmol/mol, adjusted HR for all cancer was 1.02 [95% CI 0.95–1.10] using baseline HbA1c, and 1.04 [95% CI 0.97–1.12] using updated mean HbA1c, and HRs were all non-significant for specific cancers of gastrointestinal, kidney and urinary organs, respiratory organs, female genital organs, breast or prostate. Similarly, no increased risks of all cancer or the specific types of cancer were found with higher quartiles of baseline or updated mean HbA1c, compared to the lowest quartile. HR for all cancer was 1.01 [0.98–1.04] per 1%-unit increase in HbA1c used as a continuous variable, with non-significant HRs also for the specific types of cancer per unit increase in HbA1c.

Conclusions

In this study there were no associations between HbA1c and risks for all cancers or specific types of cancer in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Introduction.

Seasonal variations in hemoglobin-A1c have been reported in diabetic patients, but the underlying mechanisms have not been elucidated.

Aims.

To study if insulin sensitivity, insulin secretion, and fasting plasma glucose showed seasonal variations in a Swedish population-based cohort of elderly men.

Methods.

Altogether 1117 men were investigated with a euglycemic insulin clamp and measurements of fasting plasma glucose and insulin secretion after an oral glucose tolerance test. Values were analyzed in linear regression models with an indicator variable for winter/summer season and outdoor temperature as predictors.

Results.

During winter, insulin sensitivity (M/I, unit = 100 × mg × min-1 × kg-1/(mU × L-1)) was 11.0% lower (4.84 versus 5.44, P = 0.0003), incremental area under the insulin curve was 16.4% higher (1167 versus 1003 mU/L, P = 0.007). Fasting plasma glucose was, however, not statistically significantly different (5.80 versus 5.71 mmol/L, P = 0.28) compared to the summer season. There was an association between outdoor temperature and M/I (0.57 units increase (95% CI 0.29–0.82, P < 0.0001) per 10°C increase of outdoor temperature) independent of winter/summer season. Adjustment for life-style factors, type 2 diabetes, and medication did not alter these results.

Conclusions.

Insulin sensitivity showed seasonal variations with lower values during the winter and higher during the summer season. Inverse compensatory variations of insulin secretion resulted in only minor variations of fasting plasma glucose. Insulin sensitivity was associated with outdoor temperature. These phenomena should be further investigated in diabetic patients.

Background. Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) is an established method for treatment of obesity, a condition of chronic inflammation with liver steatosis, characterised by increased erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), white blood cell count (WBC), liver enzymes, and decreased magnesium (Mg). We investigated alterations, if any, in ESR, WBC, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT), and Mg after RYGBP. Methods. 21 morbidly obese nondiabetic patients who underwent RYGBP surgery were evaluated preoperatively (baseline), then 1 year (1st followup) and 3.5 years (2nd followup) after RYGBP and compared to an untreated control group. Results. Body mass index, ESR, WBC, ALT, and GGT were all significantly reduced at 1 year in the RYGBP group (30%, 35%, 20%, 45%, and 57%, resp.) while Mg increased by 6%, compared to control group (P = 0.001−0.009). Conclusions. Obese patients treated by RYGBP show sustained reductions in ESR, WBC, ALT, and GGT possibly due to reduced liver steatosis and increased Mg.

Background

Serum selenium level (s-Se) has been associated with prostate cancer (PrCa) risk. We investigated the relation between s-Se, smoking and non-screening detected PrCa and explored if polymorphisms in two DNA repair genes: OGG1 and MnSOD, influenced any effect of s-Se.

Methods

ULSAM, a population based Swedish male cohort (n = 2322) investigated at age 50 for s-Se and s-Se influencing factors: serum cholesterol, erythrocyte sedimentation rate and smoking habits. At age 71 a subcohort, (n = 1005) was genotyped for OGG1 and MnSOD polymorphisms.

Results

In a 34-year-follow-up, national registries identified 208 PrCa cases further confirmed in medical records. Participants with s-Se in the upper tertile had a non-significantly lower risk of PrCa. Smokers with s-Se in the two lower tertiles (≤80 μg/L) experienced a higher cumulative incidence of PrCa than smokers in the high selenium tertile (Hazard Ratio 2.39; 95% CI: 1.09-5.25). A high tertile selenium level in combination with non-wt rs125701 of the OGG1 gene in combination with smoking status or rs4880 related variation of MnSOD gene appeared to protect from PrCa.

Conclusions

S-Se levels and smoking habits influence long-term risk of PrCa. Smoking as a risk factor for PrCa in men with low s-Se is relevant to explore further. Exploratory analyses of variations in OGG1 and MnSOD genes indicate that hypotheses about patterns of exposure to selenium and smoking combined with data on genetic variation in genes involved in DNA repair can be valuable to pursue.

Background

Associations between Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) components and prostate cancer development have not been studied comprehensively; results have been divergent. Using the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment panel III (NCEP) and International Diabetes Federation (IDF) definitions of the MetS we investigated such associations taking competing risks of death into consideration.

Methods

In the prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) of 2322 Caucasian men with 34 years of follow-up baseline MetS-measurements at age 50 were used. Cumulative incidence of prostate cancer and death with/without the MetS were calculated. Competing risk of dying was taken into account by calculating the conditional probability of prostate cancer with/without the MetS.

Results

Two-hundred-and- thirty-seven prostate cancers were identified. Prostate cancer probability by age 80 with baseline MetS compared to without the MetS was non-significantly higher, 5.2 percent-units (CI -0.8%-11.3%, (NCEP), 2.7 percent-units (CI -2.7%-8.0%) (IDF), cumulative incidence proportions of death was significantly higher, 19.3 percent-units (CI 13.4%-25.3%) (NCEP), 15.3 percent-units (CI 9.5%-21.1%) (IDF) and conditional probability of prostate cancer considering death from other causes was significantly higher, 7.3 percent-units (CI 0.2%-14.5%) odds ratio(OR) of 1.64 (CI 1.03-2.23). (NCEP), and non-significantly higher 5.0 percent-units (CI -1.6%-11.6%) OR 1.43 (CI 0.89-1.90). (IDF).

Conclusions

The MetS by the NCEP definition is associated with prostate cancer taking the competing risk of early death from other causes into account.

Impact

The results further highlight the public health impact of the increasing prevalence of MetS, and the importance of considering competing risks when studying risk factors for cancer.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the association between A1C and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in an observational study of patients with type 1 diabetes followed for 5 years.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 7,454 patients were studied from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (aged 20–65 years, diabetes duration 1–35 years, followed from 2002 to 2007).

RESULTS

Hazard ratios (HRs) for fatal/nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) per 1% unit increase in baseline or updated mean A1C at Cox regression analysis were 1.31 and 1.34 and 1.26 and 1.32, respectively, for fatal/nonfatal CVD (all P < 0.001 after adjustment for age, sex, diabetes duration, blood pressure, total and LDL cholesterol, triglycerides, BMI, smoking, and history of CVD). HRs were only slightly lower for CHD (P = 0.002) and CVD (P = 0.002–0.007) after also adjusting for albuminuria. Adjusted 5-year event rates of CHD and CVD increased progressively with higher A1C, ranging from 5 to 12%, as well as when subgrouped by shorter (1–20 years) or longer (21–35 years) duration of diabetes. A group of 4,186 patients with A1C 5–7.9% (mean 7.2) at baseline showed risk reductions of 41% (95% confidence intervals: 15–60) (P = 0.005) for fatal/nonfatal CHD and 37% (12–55) (P = 0.008) for CVD, compared with 3,268 patients with A1C 8–11.9% (mean 9.0), fully adjusted also for albuminuria.

CONCLUSIONS

This observational study of patients in modern everyday clinical practice demonstrates progressively increasing risks for CHD and CVD with higher A1C, independently of traditional risk factors, with no J-shaped risk curves. A baseline mean A1C of 7.2% showed considerably reduced risks of CHD and CVD compared with A1C 9.0%, emphasizing A1C as a strong independent risk factor in type 1 diabetes.

OBJECTIVE

Recent genome-wide association studies have revealed loci associated with glucose and insulin-related traits. We aimed to characterize 19 such loci using detailed measures of insulin processing, secretion, and sensitivity to help elucidate their role in regulation of glucose control, insulin secretion and/or action.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We investigated associations of loci identified by the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium (MAGIC) with circulating proinsulin, measures of insulin secretion and sensitivity from oral glucose tolerance tests (OGTTs), euglycemic clamps, insulin suppression tests, or frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance tests in nondiabetic humans (n = 29,084).

RESULTS

The glucose-raising allele in MADD was associated with abnormal insulin processing (a dramatic effect on higher proinsulin levels, but no association with insulinogenic index) at extremely persuasive levels of statistical significance (P = 2.1 × 10−71). Defects in insulin processing and insulin secretion were seen in glucose-raising allele carriers at TCF7L2, SCL30A8, GIPR, and C2CD4B. Abnormalities in early insulin secretion were suggested in glucose-raising allele carriers at MTNR1B, GCK, FADS1, DGKB, and PROX1 (lower insulinogenic index; no association with proinsulin or insulin sensitivity). Two loci previously associated with fasting insulin (GCKR and IGF1) were associated with OGTT-derived insulin sensitivity indices in a consistent direction.

CONCLUSIONS

Genetic loci identified through their effect on hyperglycemia and/or hyperinsulinemia demonstrate considerable heterogeneity in associations with measures of insulin processing, secretion, and sensitivity. Our findings emphasize the importance of detailed physiological characterization of such loci for improved understanding of pathways associated with alterations in glucose homeostasis and eventually type 2 diabetes.

Both clinical and experimental studies suggest a close relation between an inflammatory state and insulin resistance. We investigated the association between cytokine-mediated inflammation (high sensitivity C reactive protein [hsCRP] and interleukin [IL] 6) and insulin sensitivity (insulin-mediated glucose disposal rate, assessed by the euglycemic insulin clamp) in a community-based cohort, with subgroup analyses of normal weight individuals without diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome (NCEP). hsCRP and IL-6 were inversely associated with insulin sensitivity (multivariable-adjusted regression coefficient for 1-SD increase of hsCRP -0.12 (-0.21-(-0.03), p=0.01) and of IL-6 -0.11 (-0.21-(-0.02), p=0.01) in models adjusting for age and components of the metabolic syndrome (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, antihypertensive drugs, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting plasma glucose, waist circumference). The multivariable-adjusted association between hsCRP, IL-6 and insulin sensitivity were of a similar magnitude in normal weight individuals without diabetes and without the metabolic syndrome. Our data show that cytokine -mediated subclinical inflammation is independently associated with decreased insulin sensitivity also in apparently metabolically healthy normal weight individuals, indicating that the interplay between inflammatory processes and insulin resistance is present already in the early stages of the development of glucometabolic disease.

Objective

To determine the effect of new, persistent or reverted ischaemic ECG abnormalities at ages 50 and 70 years on the risk of subsequent cardiovascular disease.

Design, setting and participants

A prospective community‐based observational cohort of 50‐year‐old men in Sweden, followed for 32 years. 2322 men of age 50 years participated in 1970–3, and 1221 subjects were re‐examined at the age of 70 years.

Main outcome measures

Myocardial infarction (MI), cardiovascular mortality and overall mortality.

Results

At 50 years of age, after adjusting for established conventional risk factors, T wave abnormalities, ST segment depression, major Q/QS pattern and ECG‐left ventricular hypertrophy were all found to be independent risk factors for the main outcome measures during the 32 years of follow‐up. When ECG variables were re‐measured at 70 years of age, they were still found to be independent risk factors for the mortality outcomes, but lost in significance for prediction of MI. Regarding mortality, it was twice as dangerous to have persistent T wave abnormalities (HR 4.63; 95% CI 2.18 to 9.83) or ST segment depression (HR 5.66; 95% CI 1.77 to 18.1), as with new T wave abnormalities (HR 2.20; 95% CI 1.48 to 3.29) or ST segment depression (HR 2.55; 95% CI 1.74 to 3.75), developing between ages 50 and 70 years. The addition of “ECG indicating ischaemia” significantly increased the predictive power of the Framingham score (p<0.001).

Conclusions

It is worthwhile to obtain serial ECGs for proper risk assessment, since persistent ST‐T abnormalities carried twice as high a risk for future mortality compared with new or reverted abnormalities.

Objectives

To explore whether the predictive power of mid‐life ECG abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future stroke change over a 30‐year follow‐up period, and whether a repeated examination improves their predictive power.

Design and setting

Longitudinal population‐based study.

Participants

2322 men aged 50 years, with a follow‐up period of 30 years. 1221 subjects were re‐examined at age 70 years

Main outcome measure

Risk for fatal and non‐fatal stroke during three decades of follow‐up. Investigations included resting ECG and traditional cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

When measured at age 50 years, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, together with ECG‐left ventricular hypertrophy, were of importance only during the first 20 years, but regained importance when re‐measured at age 70 years. Blood pressure was a significant predictor for stroke over all three decades of follow‐up. In elderly people only, there is evidence that apolipoprotein A1 may protect from future stroke.

Conclusion

Mid‐life values for blood pressure and ECG abnormalities retain their predictive value over long follow‐up periods even though they improved in predictive power when re‐measured in elderly people. Despite lower prevalence, ECG abnormalities had greater impact at age 50 years than at age 70 years. By contrast, apolipoprotein A1 was protective for future stroke only at age 70 years.

OBJECTIVE—We investigated stroke mortality in individuals in different categories of glycemia and compared hazard ratios (HRs) corresponding to a 1-SD increase in 2-h plasma glucose and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) criteria.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—We examined data from 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance tests taken from 13 European cohorts comprising 11,844 (55%) men and 9,862 (45%) women who were followed up for a median of 10.5 years. A multivariate adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate HRs for stroke mortality.

RESULTS—In men and women without a prior history of diabetes, multivariate adjusted HRs for stroke mortality corresponding to a 1-SD increase in FPG were 1.02 (95% CI 0.83–1.25) and 1.52 (1.22–1.88) and those in 2-h plasma glucose 1.21 (1.06–1.38) and 1.31 (1.06–1.61), respectively. Addition of 2-h plasma glucose to the model with FPG significantly improved prediction of stroke mortality in men (χ2 = 10.12; P = 0.001) but not in women (χ2 = 0.01; P = 0.94), whereas addition of FPG to 2-h plasma glucose improved stroke mortality in women (χ2 = 4.08; P = 0.04) but not in men (χ2 = 3.29; P = 0.07).

CONCLUSIONS—Diabetes defined by either FPG or 2-h plasma glucose increases the risk of stroke mortality. In individuals without a history of diabetes, elevated 2-h postchallenge glucose is a better predictor than elevated fasting glucose in men, whereas the latter is better than the former in women.

OBJECTIVE—Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with use of A1C and clinical characteristics.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18–70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up of 5.64 years.

RESULTS—This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the outcome (P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 ± 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk ≥10%.

CONCLUSIONS—This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.

Objective To examine how change in level of physical activity after middle age influences mortality and to compare it with the effect of smoking cessation.

Design Population based cohort study with follow-up over 35 years.

Setting Municipality of Uppsala, Sweden.

Participants 2205 men aged 50 in 1970-3 who were re-examined at ages 60, 70, 77, and 82 years.

Main outcome measure Total (all cause) mortality.

Results The absolute mortality rate was 27.1, 23.6, and 18.4 per 1000 person years in the groups with low, medium, and high physical activity, respectively. The relative rate reduction attributable to high physical activity was 32% for low and 22% for medium physical activity. Men who increased their physical activity level between the ages of 50 and 60 continued to have a higher mortality rate during the first five years of follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio 2.64, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 5.27, compared with unchanged high physical activity). After 10 years of follow-up their increased physical activity was associated with reduced mortality to the level of men with unchanged high physical activity (1.10, 0.87 to 1.38). The reduction in mortality associated with increased physical activity (0.51, 0.26 to 0.97, compared with unchanged low physical activity) was similar to that associated with smoking cessation (0.64, 0.53 to 0.78, compared with continued smoking).

Conclusions Increased physical activity in middle age is eventually followed by a reduction in mortality to the same level as seen among men with constantly high physical activity. This reduction is comparable with that associated with smoking cessation.

Background

In recent randomised prospective studies, lifestyle intervention induced a weight loss of approximately 5%.

Objective

To describe and evaluate a 2-year on-going group intervention program in clinical practice in terms of weight loss and changes in metabolic risk factors, i.e. sagital abdominal diameter (SAD), triglycerides, fasting blood glucose and blood pressure.

Design

The aim of the intervention program was to motivate lifestyle changes concerning food intake and physical activity. The emphasis was on lifestyle modification, followed up at regular visits during 2 years. Subjects evaluated were 100 women with mean BMI 37.6 kg/m2 and 26 men with mean BMI 36.5 kg/m2.

Results

One hundred of 151 enrolled women and 26 of 36 men completed the program. Mean weight decreased by 3.8 kg in women (from 103.5 to 99.7, p<0.001) and 4.4 kg in men (from 116.5 to 112.1, p<0.05), respectively. SAD decreased by 5% (p=0.001 in women, p=0.01 in men), and triglycerides by 16% in women (p=0.01) and 24% in men (p=0.001), however systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased slightly but significantly.

Conclusion

It is possible to perform a clinical lifestyle intervention program for outpatients on an ongoing basis with weight loss, lowered SAD and triglycerides, and a similar or lower dropout rate compared to clinical trials.

Objectives To find out if the presence of the metabolic syndrome increases the risk of subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality, taking into account established risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

Design Prospective cohort study.

Setting General population.

Participants A community based sample of 2322 men followed since 1970 for a maximum of 32.7 years, investigated at ages 50 and 70.

Main outcome measures The relations of the metabolic syndrome defined by the national cholesterol education programme (NCEP) of the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute or criteria of the World Health Organization (WHO) to subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality.

Results When adding the metabolic syndrome to models with established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and serum cholesterol) at age 50, presence of the metabolic syndrome as defined in the NCEP significantly predicted total and cardiovascular mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratios 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.58; and 1.59, 1.29 to 1.95, respectively). The metabolic syndrome added prognostic information to that of the established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (likelihood ratio tests, P < 0.0001 for both outcomes). Similar results were obtained in a subsample without diabetes or manifest cardiovascular disease.

Conclusions In a large, community based sample of middle aged men, the presence of the metabolic syndrome according to the definition of the NCEP gave long term prognostic information regarding total and cardiovascular mortality if the status of established risk factors for cardiovascular disease was known. If confirmed this may indicate clinical value in diagnosing the metabolic syndrome.

Objective

To investigate the impact of an increase in blood glucose on the risk of developing myocardial infarction, with particular emphasis on people taking antihypertensive drugs.

Design

Prospective population based cohort study.

Setting

Uppsala, Sweden.

Participants

1860 men who had participated in 1970-3 at age 50 in a health survey aimed at identifying risk factors for cardiovascular disease and were re-examined at age 60 and then followed for 17.4 years.

Main outcome measure

Myocardial infarction after age 60.

Results

The incidence of myocardial infarction was significantly higher in men treated for hypertension than in those without such treatment (23% v 13.5%, P<0.0001). Participants who developed myocardial infarction after the age of 60 (n=253) showed a significantly larger increase in blood glucose between age 50 and 60 than did those without myocardial infarction. In multivariate Cox proportional hazard models increase in blood glucose was an independent risk factor for myocardial infarction (P=0.0001) in men receiving antihypertensive treatment at age 60 (n=291, mainly β blockers and thiazide diuretics) but not in those without such treatment. The impact of increase in blood glucose declined after inclusion of serum proinsulin concentrations at baseline but was still significant. A significant interaction existed between proinsulin concentration (a marker of insulin resistance) at baseline and antihypertensive treatment on increase in blood glucose.

Conclusions

Increase in blood glucose between the ages of 50 and 60 and baseline proinsulin concentration were important risk factors for myocardial infarction in men receiving antihypertensive treatment, indicating that both an insulin resistant state and the metabolic impact of β blockers and diuretics increase the risk of myocardial infarction.

What is already known on this topicPatients with hypertension are resistant to insulin stimulated glucose uptake and are hyperinsulinaemic compared with normotensive controlsTreatment with β blockers and thiazide diuretics further increases insulin resistance, thereby increasing the risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus or impaired glucose toleranceThe influence of metabolic changes induced by antihypertensive treatment on the risk of myocardial infarction has been questionedWhat this study addsMen who received antihypertensive treatment showed a larger increase in blood glucose during a 10 year period than those without such treatmentIncrease in blood glucose during antihypertensive treatment was a significant, independent risk factor for myocardial infarction in men with an insulin resistant state at baseline