This paper reports on school and social functioning outcomes in a randomized depression prevention study that compared Interpersonal Psychotherapy-Adolescent Skills Training (IPT-AST) with usual school counseling (SC). Outcome analyses were performed utilizing hierarchical linear models and mixed model analysis of variance. IPT-AST adolescents had significantly greater improvements than SC adolescents in total social functioning and friend functioning during the intervention. IPT-AST adolescents also demonstrated improvements in school, dating, and family functioning and emotional engagement in school, although these improvements were not significantly greater than seen in SC adolescents. Finally, in the 18 months following the intervention, IPT-AST adolescents were less likely than SC adolescents to be asked to leave school for academic or behavioral reasons. These findings extend the potential range of impact of depression prevention programs such as IPT-AST and provide preliminary evidence of the benefits of these programs on school and social functioning.
Prevention; Depression; Adolescents; School mental health
The current study assessed efficacy of combined cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) and venlafaxine XR compared to venlafaxine XR alone in the treatment of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) within settings where medication is typically offered as the treatment for this disorder. Patients with DSM-IV–diagnosed GAD who were recently enrolled in a long-term venlafaxine XR study were randomly offered (n=77), or not offered (n=40), the option of adding 12 sessions of CBT. Of those offered CBT, 33% (n=26) accepted and attended at least one treatment session. There were no differences between the combined treatment group and the medication only group on primary or secondary efficacy measures in any of the sample comparisons. Many patients who present in medical/psychopharmacology settings seeking treatment for GAD decline the opportunity to receive adjunctive treatment. Of those that receive CBT, there appears to be no additional benefit of combined treatment compared to venlafaxine XR alone.
Generalized Anxiety Disorder; Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy; venlafaxine; combined treatment
We explored patient, therapist, and program variability in the alliance in relation to drug and alcohol use during treatment, and whether alliance mediates the relation of program characteristics to drug/alcohol use. Data (N=1613 patients) were drawn from a randomized clinical trial investigating the efficacy of an intervention that provided alliance and outcome feedback to 112 counselors across 20 community-based outpatient substance abuse treatment clinics in the northeast United States. Program characteristics were measured using the Organization Readiness for Change scale. Using multilevel modeling, we found that alliance was related to both drug and alcohol use during the past week at the patient and program levels of analysis, but not the counselor level. Several program characteristics were related to average drug and alcohol use. The alliance was not a mediator of these relationships. Program variability in the alliance is important to the alliance-outcome relationship in the treatment of substance abuse. Better outcomes can be achieved by improving both organizational functioning and the patient-counselor alliance.
Substance Abuse; Alliance; Program; Counselor
To examine the dependability of alliance scores at the patient and therapist level, to evaluate the potential causal direction of session-to-session changes in alliance and depressive symptoms, and to investigate the impact of aggregating the alliance over progressively more sessions on the size of the alliance-outcome relationship.
We used data from a study (N=45 patients; N=9 therapists) of psychotherapy for major depressive disorder in which the alliance was measured at every treatment session to calculate generalizability coefficients and to predict change in depressive symptoms from alliance scores. Two replication samples were also used.
At the therapist level, a large number of patients (about 60) per therapist is needed to provide a dependable therapist-level alliance score. At the patient level, generalizability coefficients revealed that a single assessment of the alliance is only marginally acceptable. Very good (> .90) dependability at the patient level is only achieved through aggregating four or more assessments of the alliance. Session-to-session change in the alliance predicted subsequent session-to-session changes in symptoms. Evidence for reverse causation was found in later-in-treatment sessions, suggesting that only aggregates of early treatment alliance scores should be used to predict outcome. Session 3 alliance scores explained 4.7% of outcome variance but the average of sessions 3 to 9 explaining 14.7% of outcome variance.
Adequately assessing the alliance using multiple patients per therapist and at least 4 treatment sessions is crucial to fully understanding the size of the alliance-outcome relationship.
alliance; outcome; generalizability theory; therapist
Videotaped group drug counseling sessions were rated for alliance, self-disclosure, positive and negative feedback, group cohesion, and degree of participation of each group member. Interrater reliability was good to excellent for most measures. However, generalizability coefficients based on statistical models that included terms for patient, counselor, session, group, and rater revealed that some measures had inadequate dependability at the patient level if only two raters and two sessions were used to create patient-level scores. In contrast, good generalizability coefficients based on two raters and two sessions were obtained for alliance, non-positive learning statements received from counselor, participation variables, and self-disclosures about the past. The implications of the findings for the design of process-outcome studies are discussed.
group psychotherapy; process research; alliance; substance abuse
Rationale: Acute lung injury (ALI) acts as a complex genetic trait, yet its genetic risk factors remain incompletely understood. Large-scale genotyping has not previously been reported for ALI.
Objectives: To identify ALI risk variants after major trauma using a large-scale candidate gene approach.
Methods: We performed a two-stage genetic association study. We derived findings in an African American cohort (n = 222) using a cardiopulmonary disease–centric 50K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. Genotype and haplotype distributions were compared between subjects with ALI and without ALI, with adjustment for clinical factors. Top performing SNPs (P < 10−4) were tested in a multicenter European American trauma-associated ALI case-control population (n = 600 ALI; n = 2,266 population-based control subjects) for replication. The ALI-associated genomic region was sequenced, analyzed for in silico prediction of function, and plasma was assayed by ELISA and immunoblot.
Measurements and Main Results: Five SNPs demonstrated a significant association with ALI after adjustment for covariates in Stage I. Two SNPs in ANGPT2 (rs1868554 and rs2442598) replicated their significant association with ALI in Stage II. rs1868554 was robust to multiple comparison correction: odds ratio 1.22 (1.06–1.40), P = 0.0047. Resequencing identified predicted novel splice sites in linkage disequilibrium with rs1868554, and immunoblots showed higher proportion of variant angiopoietin-2 (ANG2) isoform associated with rs1868554T (0.81 vs. 0.48; P = 0.038).
Conclusions: An ANGPT2 region is associated with both ALI and variation in plasma angiopoietin-2 isoforms. Characterization of the variant isoform and its genetic regulation may yield important insights about ALI pathogenesis and susceptibility.
acute lung injury; acute respiratory distress syndrome; functional genetic polymorphism; genetic association study
The goal of this investigation was to explore changes in psychotherapy utilization for patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) treated in community mental health agencies across two cohorts. We used a Medicaid claims database including approximately 300,000 public sector clients. Although the use of psychotherapy alone showed a small decrease, there was a large increase in the use of combined medication and psychotherapy as a treatment for MDD. Race was a significant predictor of both treatment type received and length of treatment. African American consumers were more likely to receive psychotherapy alone than combined treatment and attended significantly fewer psychotherapy sessions.
Depression; Psychotherapy; Racial disparities; Community mental health system
The association between cocaine use and depression has been frequently observed. However, less is known about the significance of depression in the treatment of cocaine use disorders. This study examined possible interrelations between drug use and depression severity among cocaine-dependent patients in psychosocial treatments for cocaine dependence.
Monthly assessed drug use and depression severity scores of N = 487 patients during 6-month psychosocial treatments for cocaine dependence were analyzed using hybrid latent growth models.
Results indicated a moderate but statistically significant (z = 3.13, p < .01) influence of depression severity on increased drug use in the upcoming month, whereas drug use did not affect future depression severity.
Findings suggest that depression symptoms are an important predictor of drug use outcomes during psychosocial treatments for cocaine dependence and, hence, underline the importance of adequately addressing depression symptoms to improve treatment outcomes.
Cocaine Dependence; Depression; Psychosocial Treatment; Interrelations; Hybrid Latent Growth Models
The study evaluated the efficacy of an indicated prevention program for adolescent depression.
Fifty-seven adolescents with elevated depression symptoms were randomized to receive Interpersonal Psychotherapy-Adolescent Skills Training (IPT-AST) or school counseling (SC). Hierarchical linear modeling examined differences in rates of change in depression symptoms and overall functioning and analysis of covariance examined mean differences between groups. Rates of depression diagnoses in the 18-month follow-up period were compared.
Adolescents in IPT-AST reported significantly greater rates of change in depression symptoms and overall functioning than SC adolescents from baseline to post-intervention. At post-intervention, IPT-AST adolescents reported significantly fewer depression symptoms and better overall functioning. During the follow-up phase, rates of change slowed for the IPT-AST adolescents, whereas the SC adolescents continued to show improvements. By 12-month follow-up, there were no significant mean differences in depression symptoms or overall functioning between the two groups. IPT-AST adolescents reported significantly fewer depression diagnoses in the first 6 months following the intervention but by 12-month follow-up the difference in rates of diagnoses was no longer significant.
IPT-AST leads to an immediate reduction in depression symptoms and improvement in overall functioning. However, the benefits of IPT-AST are not consistent beyond the 6-month follow-up, suggesting that the preventive effects of the program in its current format are limited. Future studies are needed to examine whether booster sessions lengthen the long-term effects of IPT-AST.
prevention; adolescents; depression
In this secondary data analytic study we examined whether the relationship between changes in coping and treatment outcome differed between women enrolled in either the Women's Recovery Group (N=29), a new manualized group treatment for women with substance use disorders, or Group Drug Counseling (N=7), an empirically supported mixed-gender group treatment. We examined subscales of the Ways of Coping questionnaire and found that while changes in coping did not differ significantly across treatment groups, the association of changes in coping with substance abuse outcome was related to treatment condition. Increases in problem focused coping were associated with decreased drinking days in WRG, but paradoxically with increased drinking days in GDC. For both groups, increases in wishful thinking were associated with increases in substance use, and increases in social support coping associated with decreases in use, but these associations were greater GDC. Our results highlight the importance of examining the impact of treatment modality on coping, as well as contextual factors that may help to explain the specific pattern of results.
coping behavior; human females; alcohol rehabilitation; drug rehabilitation; group psychotherapy; treatment outcomes
Recent clinical trials and case-reports indicate that baclofen, a GABAB agonist, may have efficacy for alcohol dependence. Baclofen has been shown to enhance abstinence, to reduce drinking quantity, to reduce craving, and to reduce anxiety in alcohol dependent individuals in two placebo-controlled trials in Italy. However, the clinical trial data with baclofen is limited. The purpose of the present study was to test the efficacy and tolerability of baclofen in alcohol dependence in the United States.
The study was a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study comparing 30 mg per day of baclofen to placebo over 12 weeks of treatment and utilizing eight sessions of BRENDA, a low-intensity psychosocial intervention. 121 subjects were screened to yield 80 randomized subjects (44 male) with randomization balanced for gender. Percent heavy drinking days was the primary outcome measure with other drinking outcomes, anxiety levels, and craving as secondary outcomes. Tolerability was examined.
76% of subjects completed the study. No difference by drug condition was seen in % heavy drinking days where on-average rates were 25.5% (± 23.6%) for placebo and 25.9% (± 23.2%) for baclofen during treatment (t(73)=0.59, p=0.56). Similarly, no differences were seen by drug condition in % days abstinent, time to first drink, or time to relapse to heavy drinking. Baclofen was associated with a significant reduction in state anxiety (F(1,73)=5.39, p=0.02). Baclofen was well tolerated with only two individuals stopping baclofen because of adverse events. There were no serious adverse events.
Baclofen, a GABAB agonist, represents a possible new pharmacotherapeutic approach to alcohol dependence. Despite encouraging preclinical data and prior positive clinical trials with baclofen in Italy, the current trial did not find evidence that baclofen is superior to placebo in the treatment of alcohol dependence. Additional clinical trial work is necessary to establish whether baclofen does or does not have therapeutic efficacy in alcohol dependence and, if it does, what factors are predictive of response.
baclofen; alcoholism; placebo-controlled trial
The Sweet Taste Test (STT) measures hedonic responses to sweet tastes and has been linked to both alcoholism and to a family history of alcoholism. However, STT response profiles in unipolar major depressive disorder (MDD), a disorder characterized by anhedonia, have been minimally investigated.
Twelve adults with and 15 adults without MDD participated in two identical STT assessments separated by approximately 12 weeks. Between assessments, MDD outpatients received Behavioral Activation Therapy for Depression, a psychotherapy modality designed to increase engagement with rewarding stimuli and reduce avoidance behaviors. Primary dependent measures included sensitivity to sucrose, hedonic response to sucrose, and designation as a Sweet Liker or Sweet Disliker.
75% of adults with MDD were treatment responders. There were no significant differences in STT response profiles between groups overall or at either timepoint. Furthermore, STT profiles of MDD participants did not differ after psychotherapy, relative to baseline.
Findings suggest that although anhedonia is a symptom of MDD, the disorder is not characterized by altered responses to sweet tastes. Implications and future directions are discussed.
Unipolar Depression; Anhedonia; Sweet Taste Test; Treatment
The purpose of the current investigation was to examine the interpersonal accuracy of interventions in cognitive and interpersonal therapy as a predictor of the outcome of treatment for patients with major depressive disorder.
The interpersonal accuracy of interventions was rated using transcripts of treatment sessions for 72 patients who were being treated with cognitive or interpersonal therapy for major depressive disorder through the NIMH Treatment of Depression Collaborative Research Program. Interpersonal accuracy of interventions was assessed by first identifying core conflictual relationship themes for each patient and then having judges rate therapist intervention statements for the extent to which each statement addressed each component of the patient-specific interpersonal theme.
Using early in treatment sessions, statistically significant interactions of interpersonal accuracy of interventions and treatment group in relation to outcome were evident. These findings included significant accuracy by treatment group interactions in the prediction of subsequent change of depressive symptoms and social adjustment from Week 4 to Week 16, with higher levels of interpersonal accuracy associated with relatively poorer outcomes for patients receiving cognitive therapy but relatively better outcomes for patients in interpersonal therapy.
The process of interpersonal and cognitive therapies may differ in important ways. Accurately addressing interpersonal themes may be particularly important to the process of interpersonal therapy, but not cognitive therapy.
interpersonal therapy; cognitive therapy; depression; therapeutic process; outcome
This study examined baseline self-efficacy as a moderator of outcomes comparing women receiving either the Women's Recovery Group (WRG), a new manualized group treatment for substance use disorders combining single-gender group composition and women-focused content, or Group Drug Counseling (GDC), an empirically supported mixed-gender group treatment.
To understand the relationship of baseline scores of abstinence self-efficacy measured by the Drug-Taking Confidence Questionnaire (DTCQ) to outcome, we included the interaction of group by phase by continuous DTCQ scores in the outcome analyses. Women were split into groups of high versus low abstinence self-efficacy based on the clinical cutoff score of 80 on DTCQ.
We found a significant 3-way interaction effect of treatment condition, time, and baseline DTCQ scores on drinking days and days of any substance use per month. Women in WRG had greater reduction in substance use from baseline to post-treatment than women in GDC, and women in WRG with low self-efficacy had the best outcomes overall.
The findings suggest that women with low self-efficacy may have enhanced treatment outcomes in a single-gender substance use treatment group.
Substance use disorders; Group therapy; Women; Self-efficacy; Recovery
Peroxiredoxin 6 (PRDX6) is involved in redox regulation of the cell and is thought to be protective against oxidant injury. Little is known about genetic variation within the PRDX6 gene and its association with acute lung injury (ALI). In this study we sequenced the PRDX6 gene to uncover common variants, and tested association with ALI following major trauma.
To examine the extent of variation in the PRDX6 gene, we performed direct sequencing of the 5' UTR, exons, introns and the 3' UTR in 25 African American cases and controls and 23 European American cases and controls (selected from a cohort study of major trauma), which uncovered 80 SNPs. In silico modeling was performed using Patrocles and Transcriptional Element Search System (TESS). Thirty seven novel and tagging SNPs were tested for association with ALI compared with ICU at-risk controls who did not develop ALI in a cohort study of 259 African American and 254 European American subjects that had been admitted to the ICU with major trauma.
Resequencing of critically ill subjects demonstrated 43 novel SNPs not previously reported. Coding regions demonstrated no detectable variation, indicating conservation of the protein. Block haplotype analyses reveal that recombination rates within the gene seem low in both Caucasians and African Americans. Several novel SNPs appeared to have the potential for functional consequence using in silico modeling. Chi2 analysis of ALI incidence and genotype showed no significant association between the SNPs in this study and ALI. Haplotype analysis did not reveal any association beyond single SNP analyses.
This study revealed novel SNPs within the PRDX6 gene and its 5' and 3' flanking regions via direct sequencing. There was no association found between these SNPs and ALI, possibly due to a low sample size, which was limited to detection of relative risks of 1.93 and above. Future studies may focus on the role of PRDX6 genetic variation in other diseases, where oxidative stress is suspected.
Peroxiredoxin; Acute Lung Injury; Oxidant Stress; Genetic Polymorphisms
We report here on the results of a randomized, controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of a semi-automated performance improvement system (“Patient Feedback”) that enables real-time monitoring of patient outcomes in outpatient substance abuse treatment clinics. The study involved 118 clinicians working at 20 community-based outpatient substance abuse treatment clinics in the northeast United States. Ten clinics received 12 weeks of the Patient Feedback performance improvement intervention and ten clinics received no intervention during the 12 weeks. Over 1500 patients provided anonymous ratings of therapeutic alliance, treatment satisfaction, and drug/alcohol use. There was no evidence of an intervention effect on the primary drug and alcohol use scales. There was also no evidence of an intervention effect on secondary measures of therapeutic alliance. Clinician-rated measures of organizational functioning and job satisfaction also showed no intervention effect. Possible insights from these findings, and alternative methods of utilizing feedback reports to enhance clinical outcomes are proposed.
performance improvement; substance abuse; feedback; alliance; treatment satisfaction
The NIDA Collaborative Cocaine Treatment Study yielded different efficacies for different psychosocial treatments for cocaine dependence. However, substantial heterogeneity of patient outcomes was evident. Longitudinal data analysis techniques can be helpful in examining differential effects of psychosocial interventions on specific subpopulations of patients.
Overall drug and cocaine use of 346 patients diagnosed with DSM-IV cocaine dependence and treated with one of four psychosocial interventions were assessed monthly during 6-month treatment. Growth mixture models were used to identify patient subgroups based on typical patterns of change in substance use during treatment and to evaluate differential treatment effects within these subgroups.
Three patient subgroups following different change patterns in cocaine and overall drug use were identified irrespective of the treatment type: (a) those with moderate baseline severity of drug use and very rapid reduction of drug use during treatment, (b) those with moderate baseline severity of drug use and moderate reduction of drug use during treatment, and (c) those with severe levels of baseline drug use with moderate reduction of drug use during treatment. Patient baseline characteristics enabled discrimination between these subgroups. Individual drug counseling was most efficacious among those patients with moderate baseline severity and moderate treatment response. There were no differential treatment effects in the two other patient subgroups.
The population of treatment-seeking cocaine dependent individuals is heterogeneous. Research on patient subgroups with different change patterns revealed its potential to enable classifications of patients that indicate which treatment is most effective for which type of patient.
Cocaine Dependence; Psychosocial Treatment; Differential Treatment Effects; Patterns of Change; Growth Mixture Modeling
Data from a community-based multicenter study of Motivational Enhancement Therapy (MET) and counseling as usual (CAU) for outpatient substance users were used to examine questions about the role of the alliance in MET and CAU. Most (94%) of the sample met diagnostic criteria for abuse or dependence (primarily alcohol and/or cocaine). Sixteen therapists for CAU and 14 for MET participated. No reliable differences in patient ratings (n = 319) on the Helping Alliance Questionnaire-II (HAq-II) were evident for MET compared to CAU, but significant differences between therapists were found within each condition in mean patient-rated HAq-II scores. Overall, average levels of alliance were high. The between-therapist component of the alliance, but not the within-therapist component, was significantly associated with self-reported days of primary substance use during the follow-up period from Weeks 4 to 16 (Cohen's d = 0 .39; n = 257). Therapists with either low or very high alliances had relatively poorer average outcomes (quadratic effect: d = 0.44). For therapists in both MET and CAU, increased use of MET fundamental techniques and MET advanced techniques during treatment sessions were associated with higher levels of alliance. Implications of the findings for conceptualization of the alliance and for training of therapists are discussed.
alliance; motivational enhancement; motivational interviewing; substance use
Integrated group therapy, a new treatment for patients with bipolar disorder and substance use disorder, has previously been found to be efficacious in reducing substance use, but its length (20 sessions) and need for highly trained therapists may limit its adoption in substance use disorder community treatment programs. This paper compares a briefer (12-session) version of integrated group therapy, led by substance use disorder counselors without previous cognitive-behavioral training or bipolar disorder experience, to group drug counseling.
Sixty-one patients with bipolar disorder and substance dependence, taking mood stabilizers, were randomized to 12 sessions of integrated group therapy (n=31) or group drug counseling (n=30).
Analyses of primary outcomes showed trends favoring integrated group therapy, with greater reduction in substance use during follow-up and a greater decline in risk of mood episodes during treatment. Secondary analyses favored integrated group therapy, with a significantly greater likelihood of achieving total abstinence, a significantly shorter time to the first abstinent month, and a significantly greater likelihood of achieving a “good clinical outcome” (a composite measure encompassing both substance use and mood simultaneously).
A shortened version of integrated group therapy can be delivered successfully by substance use disorder counselors, with better overall outcomes than those achieved with group drug counseling.
substance abuse; bipolar disorder; substance dependence; treatment; group therapy; behavioral therapy
Studies involving patients with personality disorders (PD) have not focused on improvement of core aspects of the PD. This paper examines changes in quality of object relations, interpersonal problems, psychological mindedness, and personality traits in a sample of 156 patients with DSM-IV PD diagnoses being randomized to either manualized or non manualized dynamic psychotherapy. Effect sizes adjusted for symptomatic change and reliable change indices were calculated. We found that both treatments were equally effective at reducing personality pathology. Only in neuroticism did the non manualized group do better during the follow-up period. The largest improvement was found in quality of object relations. For the remaining variables only small and clinically insignificant magnitudes of change were found.
This exploratory study examined psychiatric symptom severity as a moderator of outcomes among women receiving either the Women’s Recovery Group (WRG), a new manualized group treatment for substance use disorders combining single-gender group composition and women-focused content, or Group Drug Counseling (GDC), an empirically supported mixed-gender group treatment.
We used a mixed model analysis of variance.
We found a significant 3-way interaction effect of treatment condition, time, and baseline Brief Symptom Inventory scores as well as Beck Depression Inventory scores.
Single-gender group treatment may confer added benefit for women with substance abuse and high psychiatric symptom severity than mixed-gender treatment.
A recent randomized controlled trial found nearly equivalent response rates for antidepressant medications and cognitive therapy in a sample of moderate-to-severely depressed outpatients. In this article, we seek to identify the variables that were associated with response across both treatments as well as variables that predicted superior response in one treatment over the other. The sample consisted of 180 depressed outpatients: 60 of whom were randomly assigned to cognitive therapy; 120 were assigned to antidepressant medications. Treatment was provided for 16 weeks. Chronic depression, older age, and lower intelligence each predicted relatively poor response across both treatments. Three prescriptive variables were identified: marriage, unemployment, and having experienced a greater number of recent life events predicted superior response to cognitive therapy compared to antidepressant medications. Thus, six markers of treatment outcome were identified, each of which might be expected to carry considerable clinical utility. The three prognostic variables identify subgroups that might benefit from alternative treatment strategies; the three prescriptive variables identify groups who appear to respond particularly well to cognitive therapy.
Treatment of Depression; Cognitive Therapy; Antidepressant Medications; Moderators; Prediction of Outcome
To facilitate effectiveness testing and dissemination of treatments to community based setting, therapist training manuals that are more “community friendly” are needed. The aim of the current project was to create revised versions of individual drug counseling (IDC) and group drug counseling (GDC) treatment manuals for cocaine dependence and to conduct a preliminary study of their effectiveness. After changing the format and context of existing drug counseling manuals to have greater ease of use in the community, draft manuals were given to 23 community-based counselors for their feedback. Final versions were then used in a pilot randomized clinical trial involving 41 cocaine dependent patients who received 3 months of either IDC + GDC or GDC alone treatment. Counselors implemented the new treatment manuals with acceptable levels of adherence and competence. Outcome results indicated that substantial change in drug use was evident, but the amount of abstinence obtained was limited.
Cocaine dependence; drug counseling; randomized trial
We sought to develop a simple point score that would accurately capture the risk of hospital death for patients with acute lung injury (ALI).
This is a secondary analysis of data from two randomized trials. Baseline clinical variables collected within 24 hours of enrollment were modeled as predictors of hospital mortality using logistic regression and bootstrap resampling to arrive at a parsimonious model. We constructed a point score based on regression coefficients.
Medical centers participating in the Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome Clinical Trials network (ARDSnet).
Model development: 414 patients with non-traumatic ALI participating in the low tidal volume arm of the ARDSnet ARMA study. Model validation: 459 patients participating in the ARDSnet ALVEOLI study.
Measurements and Main Results
Variables comprising the prognostic model were: hematocrit <26% (1 point), bilirubin ≥ 2 mg/dl (1 point), fluid balance greater than 2.5 liters positive (1 point), and age (1 point for age 40–64, 2 points for age ≥ 65 years). Predicted mortality (95% confidence interval) for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4+ point totals was 8% (5–14%), 17% (12–23%), 31% (26–37%), 51% (43–58%), and 70% (58–80%), respectively. There was excellent agreement between predicted and observed mortality in the validation cohort. Observed mortality for 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4+ point totals in the validation cohort was 12%, 16%, 28%, 47%, and 67%, respectively. Compared to the APACHE III score, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the point score were greater in the development cohort (0.72 vs. 0.67, p=0.09) and lower in the validation cohort (0.68 vs. 0.75, p=0.03).
Mortality in ALI patients can be predicted using an index of four readily-available clinical variables with good calibration. This index may help inform prognostic discussions, but validation in non-clinical trial populations is necessary before widespread use.
Acute respiratory distress syndrome; acute lung injury; Respiratory Distress Syndrome; Adult; Human ARDS; Statistical Model; logistic models; mortality determinants; Mortality; In-Hospital; Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation; APACHE III; Bayesian Prediction; Prognosis
Aims: To investigate the relationship between the sweet liking/sweet disliking phenotype (a putative probe of brain opioid function), craving for alcohol and response to treatment with naltrexone in individuals with alcohol dependence. Methods: Forty individuals with alcohol dependence were enrolled in a 12-week open-label study of 50 mg of naltrexone with four sessions of motivational enhancement therapy. Prior to treatment, individuals completed a sweet preference test and the Penn Alcohol Craving Scale. Subjects were categorized as sweet liking (SL), n = 15, or sweet disliking (SDL), n = 25, via a standard sweet tasting paradigm. The sweet tasting results were blinded to the subjects and to treatment staff. SL status, pretreatment craving and their interaction were examined as predictors of frequency of abstinent days and heavy drinking days during treatment with naltrexone. Results: SL and SDL subjects achieved similar reductions in percent heavy drinking days with treatment. During treatment, SDL subjects had 48% abstinent days compared to 30% for SL subjects (P = 0.034). Pretreatment craving did not predict % heavy drinking days or % abstinent days. An interaction effect was found between the SL/SDL phenotype and pretreatment craving such that SL subjects with high craving demonstrated higher rates of percent abstinent days whereas SDL subjects with high craving demonstrated lower rates of percent abstinent days, P < 0.001. Conclusions: These findings indicate that the SL/SDL phenotype may predict variation in response to naltrexone and/or counseling treatment. Furthermore, the SL/SDL phenotype may interact with craving to provide a more robust prediction of outcome with naltrexone or counseling.