Although a highly heritable and disabling disease, bipolar disorder's (BD) genetic variants have been challenging to identify. We present new genotype data for 1,190 cases and 401 controls and perform a genome-wide association study including additional samples for a total of 2,191 cases and 1,434 controls. We do not detect genome-wide significant associations for individual loci; however, across all SNPs, we show an association between the power to detect effects calculated from a previous genome-wide association study and evidence for replication (P = 1.5×10−7). To demonstrate that this result is not likely to be a false positive, we analyze replication rates in a large meta-analysis of height and show that, in a large enough study, associations replicate as a function of power, approaching a linear relationship. Within BD, SNPs near exons exhibit a greater probability of replication, supporting an enrichment of reproducible associations near functional regions of genes. These results indicate that there is likely common genetic variation associated with BD near exons (±10 kb) that could be identified in larger studies and, further, provide a framework for assessing the potential for replication when combining results from multiple studies.
Bipolar disorder (BD) is a highly heritable disease that has been difficult to characterize genetically. We have genotyped 1,190 BD cases and 401 controls to find regions of the genome associated with BD. After combining these data with previously existing genotyped samples, we did not find any genome-wide significant associations. However, when we used an additional study to prioritize loci for replication and meta-analysis purposes, we found that we were more likely to see an association in our sample with variants for which we had the highest power. We quantified this effect using logistic regression and saw a strong association between power to detect an effect based on an initial study's results and replication P-value in a second study (P = 1.5×10−7), supporting the presence of shared genetic risk factors across the studies. Moreover, this association was stronger when we restricted analysis to SNPs near coding regions, and it was further enriched when SNPs had the same direction of effect in both studies. This result supports the presence of genetic factors underlying BD near exons whose collective effect results in a detectable signal and provides a framework for assessing the potential for replication when combining results from multiple studies.