Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change.
Objectives: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations.
Methods: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates.
Results: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population.
Conclusions: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed.
Citation: Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ. 2014. Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia. Environ Health Perspect 122:1285–1292; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307524
Human-induced climate change, with such rapid and continuing global-scale warming, is historically unprecedented and signifies that human pressures on Earth’s life-supporting natural systems now exceed the planet’s bio-geo-capacity. The risks from climate change to health and survival in populations are diverse, as are the social and political ramifications. Although attributing observed health changes in a population to the recent climatic change is difficult, a coherent pattern of climate- and weather-associated changes is now evident in many regions of the world. The risks impinge unevenly, especially on poorer and vulnerable regions, and are amplified by pre-existing high rates of climate-sensitive diseases and conditions. If, as now appears likely, the world warms by 3-5oC by 2100, the health consequences, directly and via massive social and economic disruption, will be severe. The health sector has an important message to convey, comparing the health risks and benefits of enlightened action to avert climate change and to achieve sustainable ways of living versus the self-interested or complacent inaction.
Climate Change; Sustainability; Population Health; Anthropocene
The observational evidence of the impacts of climate conditions on human health is accumulating. A variety of direct, indirect, and systemically mediated health effects have been identified. Excessive daily heat exposures create direct effects, such as heat stroke (and possibly death), reduce work productivity, and interfere with daily household activities. Extreme weather events, including storms, floods, and droughts, create direct injury risks and follow-on outbreaks of infectious diseases, lack of nutrition, and mental stress. Climate change will increase these direct health effects. Indirect effects include malnutrition and under-nutrition due to failing local agriculture, spread of vector-borne diseases and other infectious diseases, and mental health and other problems caused by forced migration from affected homes and workplaces. Examples of systemically mediated impacts on population health include famine, conflicts, and the consequences of large-scale adverse economic effects due to reduced human and environmental productivity. This article highlights links between climate change and non-communicable health problems, a major concern for global health beyond 2015.
Detailed regional analysis of climate conditions clearly shows increasing temperatures in many parts of the world. Climate modelling indicates that by the year 2100 the global average temperature may have increased by 3-4°C unless fundamental reductions in current global trends for greenhouse gas emissions are achieved. Given other unforeseeable environmental, social, demographic, and geopolitical changes that may occur in a plus-4-degree world, that scenario may comprise a largely uninhabitable world for millions of people and great social and military tensions.
It is imperative that we identify actions and strategies that are effective in reducing these increasingly likely threats to health and well-being. The fundamental preventive strategy is, of course, climate change mitigation by significantly reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, especially long-acting carbon dioxide (CO2), and by increasing the uptake of CO2 at the earth's surface. This involves urgent shifts in energy production from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources, energy conservation in building design and urban planning, and reduced waste of energy for transport, building heating/cooling, and agriculture. It would also involve shifts in agricultural production and food systems to reduce energy and water use particularly in meat production. There is also potential for prevention via mitigation, adaptation, or resilience building actions, but for the large populations in tropical countries, mitigation of climate change is required to achieve health protection solutions that will last.
climate change; health; well-being; adaptation; mitigation
Cities are rapidly increasing in importance as a major factor shaping the Earth system, and therefore, must take corresponding responsibility. With currently over half the world’s population, cities are supported by resources originating from primarily rural regions often located around the world far distant from the urban loci of use. The sustainability of a city can no longer be considered in isolation from the sustainability of human and natural resources it uses from proximal or distant regions, or the combined resource use and impacts of cities globally. The world’s multiple and complex environmental and social challenges require interconnected solutions and coordinated governance approaches to planetary stewardship. We suggest that a key component of planetary stewardship is a global system of cities that develop sustainable processes and policies in concert with its non-urban areas. The potential for cities to cooperate as a system and with rural connectivity could increase their capacity to effect change and foster stewardship at the planetary scale and also increase their resource security.
Urban; Rural; Resources; Sustainability; Planetary stewardship; Global; Governance
In 2008 the UNICEF/UNDP/World Bank/WHO Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR) commissioned ten think-tanks to work on disease-specific and thematic reference groups to identify top research priorities that would advance the research agenda on infectious diseases of poverty, thus contributing to improvements in human health. The first of the thematic reference group reports – on environment, agriculture and infectious diseases of poverty – was recently released. In this article we review, from an insider perspective, the strengths and weaknesses of this thematic reference group report and highlight key messages for policy-makers, funders and researchers.
Agriculture; Environment; Infectious disease; Research priorities; TDR
During every climatic era Life on Earth is constrained by a limited range of climatic conditions, outside which thriving and then surviving becomes difficult. This applies at both planetary and organism (species) levels. Further, many causal influences of climate change on human health entail changes—often disruptive, sometimes irreversible—in complex system functioning. Understanding the diverse health risks from climate change, and their influence pathways, presents a challenge to environmental health researchers whose prior work has been in a more definable, specific and quantitative milieu. Extension of the research agenda and conceptual framework to assess present and future health risks from climate change may be constrained by three factors: (i) lack of historically-informed understanding of population-health sensitivity to climatic changes; (ii) an instinctual ‘epidemiologising’ tendency to choose research topics amenable to conventional epidemiological analysis and risk estimation; and (iii) under-confidence in relation to interdisciplinary collaborative scenario-based modeling of future health risks. These constraints must be recognized and remedied. And environmental researchers must argue for heightened public attention to today’s macro-environmental threats to present and future population health—emphasising the ecological dimension of these determinants of long-term health that apply to whole populations and communities, not just to individuals and social groupings.
climate change; health; public health; research; history; modeling; policy; Goldilocks
Environmental and social changes associated with climate change are likely to have impacts on the well-being, health, and productivity of many working populations across the globe. The ramifications of climate change for working populations are not restricted to increases in heat exposure. Other significant risks to worker health (including physical hazards from extreme weather events, infectious diseases, under-nutrition, and mental stresses) may be amplified by future climate change, and these may have substantial impacts at all scales of economic activity. Some of these risks are difficult to quantify, but pose a substantial threat to the viability and sustainability of some working populations. These impacts may occur in both developed and developing countries, although the latter category is likely to bear the heaviest burden.
This paper explores some of the likely, non-heat-related health issues that climate change will have on working populations around the globe, now and in the future. These include exposures to various infectious diseases (vector-borne, zoonotic, and person-to-person), extreme weather events, stress and mental health issues, and malnutrition.
climate change; workers; vector-borne diseases; zoonoses; mental health; malnutrition; emergency workers; farmers
Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development.
To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales.
A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes.
A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change.
Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change.
climate change adaptation; global health; multi-sectoral; social networks; governance; social sciences; methods
A more rigorous and nuanced understanding of land-use change (LUC) as a driver of emerging infectious disease (EID) is required. Here we examine post hunter-gatherer LUC as a driver of infectious disease in one biogeographical region with a compressed and documented history—continental Australia. We do this by examining land-use and native vegetation change (LUCC) associations with infectious disease emergence identified through a systematic (1973–2010) and historical (1788–1973) review of infectious disease literature of humans and animals. We find that 22% (20) of the systematically reviewed EIDs are associated with LUCC, most frequently where natural landscapes have been removed or replaced with agriculture, plantations, livestock or urban development. Historical clustering of vector-borne, zoonotic and environmental disease emergence also follows major periods of extensive land clearing. These advanced stages of LUCC are accompanied by changes in the distribution and density of hosts and vectors, at varying scales and chronology. This review of infectious disease emergence in one continent provides valuable insight into the association between accelerated global LUC and concurrent accelerated infectious disease emergence.
emerging infectious disease; zoonoses; wildlife; livestock; vector; environment; land-use; Australia
Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move.
Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response.
Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change.
Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains.
Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.
climate change; displacement; health; migration; resettlement
Enhancing the adaptive capacity of individuals, communities, institutions and nations is pivotal to protecting and improving human health and well-being in the face of systemic social inequity plus dangerous climate change. However, research on the determinants of adaptive capacity in relation to health, particularly concerning the role of governance, is in its infancy. This paper highlights the intersections between global health, climate change and governance. It presents an overview of these key concerns, their relation to each other, and the potential that a greater understanding of governance may present opportunities to strengthen policy and action responses to the health effects of climate change. Important parallels between addressing health inequities and sustainable development practices in the face of global environmental change are also highlighted. We propose that governance can be investigated through two key lenses within the earth system governance theoretical framework; agency and architecture. These two governance concepts can be evaluated using methods of social network research and policy analysis using case studies and is the subject of further research.
global health; climate change; adaptive capacity; equity; governance; decision-making
Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century ad. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.
See research article http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7007/8/112
Climate change; Environmental health; Global environmental change; Research needs; Sustainability
Arbovirus diseases have emerged as a global public health concern. However, the impact of climatic, social, and environmental variability on the transmission of arbovirus diseases remains to be determined.
Our goal for this study was to provide an overview of research development and future research directions about the interrelationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and the transmission of Ross River virus (RRV), the most common and widespread arbovirus disease in Australia.
We conducted a systematic literature search on climatic, social, and environmental factors and RRV disease. Potentially relevant studies were identified from a series of electronic searches.
The body of evidence revealed that the transmission cycles of RRV disease appear to be sensitive to climate and tidal variability. Rainfall, temperature, and high tides were among major determinants of the transmission of RRV disease at the macro level. However, the nature and magnitude of the interrelationship between climate variability, mosquito density, and the transmission of RRV disease varied with geographic area and socioenvironmental condition. Projected anthropogenic global climatic change may result in an increase in RRV infections, and the key determinants of RRV transmission we have identified here may be useful in the development of an early warning system.
The analysis indicates that there is a complex relationship between climate variability, social and environmental factors, and RRV transmission. Different strategies may be needed for the control and prevention of RRV disease at different levels. These research findings could be used as an additional tool to support decision making in disease control/surveillance and risk management.
climate variability; early warning system; Ross River virus transmission; social and environmental factors
In this study we examined the impact of weather variability and tides on the transmission of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease and developed a weather-based forecasting model for BFV disease in the Gladstone region, Australia. We used seasonal autoregressive integrated moving-average (SARIMA) models to determine the contribution of weather variables to BFV transmission after the time-series data of response and explanatory variables were made stationary through seasonal differencing. We obtained data on the monthly counts of BFV cases, weather variables (e.g., mean minimum and maximum temperature, total rainfall, and mean relative humidity), high and low tides, and the population size in the Gladstone region between January 1992 and December 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model shows that the 5-month moving average of minimum temperature (β = 0.15, p-value < 0.001) was statistically significantly and positively associated with BFV disease, whereas high tide in the current month (β = −1.03, p-value = 0.04) was statistically significantly and inversely associated with it. However, no significant association was found for other variables. These results may be applied to forecast the occurrence of BFV disease and to use public health resources in BFV control and prevention.
Barmah Forest virus; control; forecasting; Gladstone region; risk factors; time series modeling
Several factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world's most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.
Methods and Findings
We have analysed monthly data for Thailand from 1983 to 1997 using wavelet approaches that can describe nonstationary phenomena and that also allow the quantification of nonstationary associations between time series. We report a strong association between monthly dengue incidence in Thailand and the dynamics of El Niño for the 2–3-y periodic mode. This association is nonstationary, seen only from 1986 to 1992, and appears to have a major influence on the synchrony of dengue epidemics in Thailand.
The underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.
In Thailand, dengue transmission patterns are complex, with El Nino showing an association with some epidemics only; other reasons will need to be found for the initiation of other outbreaks
Objective To examine the determinants of vulnerability to winter mortality in elderly British people.
Design Population based cohort study (119 389 person years of follow up).
Setting 106 general practices from the Medical Research Council trial of assessment and management of older people in Britain.
Participants People aged ≥ 75 years.
Main outcome measures Mortality (10 123 deaths) determined by follow up through the Office for National Statistics.
Results Month to month variation accounted for 17% of annual all cause mortality, but only 7.8% after adjustment for temperature. The overall winter:non-winter rate ratio was 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.26 to 1.36). There was little evidence that this ratio varied by geographical region, age, or any of the personal, socioeconomic, or clinical factors examined, with two exceptions: after adjustment for all major covariates the winter:non-winter ratio in women compared with men was 1.11 (1.00 to 1.23), and those with a self reported history of respiratory illness had a winter:non-winter ratio of 1.20 (1.08 to 1.34) times that of people without a history of respiratory illness. There was no evidence that socioeconomic deprivation or self reported financial worries were predictive of winter death.
Conclusion Except for female sex and pre-existing respiratory illness, there was little evidence for vulnerability to winter death associated with factors thought to lead to vulnerability. The lack of socioeconomic gradient suggests that policies aimed at relief of fuel poverty may need to be supplemented by additional measures to tackle the burden of excess winter deaths in elderly people.
The apparent immune-suppressive effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) has suggested that this environmental exposure may influence the development of immune-related disorders. Self-reported prevalence rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus, rheumatoid arthritis (RA), eczema/dermatitis, and asthma, from the 1995 Australian National Health Survey, were therefore examined by latitude and ambient level of UVR. A positive association of type 1 diabetes mellitus prevalence was found with both increasing southern latitude of residence (r = 0.77; p = 0.026) and decreasing regional annual ambient UVR (r= -0.80; p = 0.018); a 3-fold increase in prevalence from the northernmost region to the southernmost region was evident. In contrast, asthma correlated negatively with latitude (r = -0.72; p = 0.046), although the change in asthma prevalence from the north to the south of Australia was only 0.7-fold. For both RA and eczema/dermatitis, there were no statistically significant associations between latitude/UVR and disease prevalence. These ecologic data provide some support for a previously proposed beneficial effect of UVR on T-helper 1-mediated autoimmune disorders such as type 1 diabetes. The inverse association of type 1 diabetes prevalence with UVR is consistent with that previously reported for another autoimmune disease, multiple sclerosis, in Australia, and also with type 1 diabetes latitudinal gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. The finding also accords with photoimmunologic evidence of UVR-induced immunosuppression and may suggest a beneficial effect of UVR in reducing the incidence of such autoimmune conditions. In light of this study, analytic epidemiologic studies investigating risk of immune disorders in relation to personal UVR exposure in humans are required.
Objective: To investigate the reasons for the decline in deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease in Poland since 1991 after two decades of rising rates.
Design: Recent changes in mortality were measured as percentage deviations in 1994 from rates predicted by extrapolation of sex and age specific death rates for 1980-91 for diseases of the circulatory system and selected other categories. Available data on national and household food availability, alcohol consumption, cigarette smoking, socioeconomic indices, and medical services over time were reviewed.
Main outcome measures: Age specific and age standardised rates of death attributed to ischaemic heart disease and related causes.
Results: The change in trend in mortality attributed to diseases of the circulatory system was similar in men and women and most marked (>20%) in early middle age. For ages 45 to 64 the decrease was greatest for deaths attributed to ischaemic heart disease and atherosclerosis (around 25%) and less for stroke (<10%). For most of the potentially explanatory variables considered, there were no corresponding changes in trend. However, between 1986-90 and 1994 there was a marked switch from animal fats (estimated availability down 23%) to vegetable fats (up 48%) and increased imports of fruit.
Conclusion: Reporting biases are unlikely to have exaggerated the true fall in ischaemic heart disease; neither is it likely to be mainly due to changes in smoking, drinking, stress, or medical care. Changes in type of dietary fat and increased supplies of fresh fruit and vegetables seem to be the best candidates.
Key messages Among former socialist countries Poland has undergone unusually rapid social and economic changes since 1988-9, including aspects of diet Mortality from heart disease declined sharply during 1991-4 after long term increases; mortality from stroke declined less strongly This study investigated what has changed in Poland to reduce the risks of fatal events in people with established ischaemic heart disease Candidate dietary explanations were the substitution of unsaturated for saturated fats and increased consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables