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1.  A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 
Lim, Stephen S | Vos, Theo | Flaxman, Abraham D | Danaei, Goodarz | Shibuya, Kenji | Adair-Rohani, Heather | Amann, Markus | Anderson, H Ross | Andrews, Kathryn G | Aryee, Martin | Atkinson, Charles | Bacchus, Loraine J | Bahalim, Adil N | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Balmes, John | Barker-Collo, Suzanne | Baxter, Amanda | Bell, Michelle L | Blore, Jed D | Blyth, Fiona | Bonner, Carissa | Borges, Guilherme | Bourne, Rupert | Boussinesq, Michel | Brauer, Michael | Brooks, Peter | Bruce, Nigel G | Brunekreef, Bert | Bryan-Hancock, Claire | Bucello, Chiara | Buchbinder, Rachelle | Bull, Fiona | Burnett, Richard T | Byers, Tim E | Calabria, Bianca | Carapetis, Jonathan | Carnahan, Emily | Chafe, Zoe | Charlson, Fiona | Chen, Honglei | Chen, Jian Shen | Cheng, Andrew Tai-Ann | Child, Jennifer Christine | Cohen, Aaron | Colson, K Ellicott | Cowie, Benjamin C | Darby, Sarah | Darling, Susan | Davis, Adrian | Degenhardt, Louisa | Dentener, Frank | Des Jarlais, Don C | Devries, Karen | Dherani, Mukesh | Ding, Eric L | Dorsey, E Ray | Driscoll, Tim | Edmond, Karen | Ali, Suad Eltahir | Engell, Rebecca E | Erwin, Patricia J | Fahimi, Saman | Falder, Gail | Farzadfar, Farshad | Ferrari, Alize | Finucane, Mariel M | Flaxman, Seth | Fowkes, Francis Gerry R | Freedman, Greg | Freeman, Michael K | Gakidou, Emmanuela | Ghosh, Santu | Giovannucci, Edward | Gmel, Gerhard | Graham, Kathryn | Grainger, Rebecca | Grant, Bridget | Gunnell, David | Gutierrez, Hialy R | Hall, Wayne | Hoek, Hans W | Hogan, Anthony | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian | Hu, Howard | Hubbell, Bryan J | Hutchings, Sally J | Ibeanusi, Sydney E | Jacklyn, Gemma L | Jasrasaria, Rashmi | Jonas, Jost B | Kan, Haidong | Kanis, John A | Kassebaum, Nicholas | Kawakami, Norito | Khang, Young-Ho | Khatibzadeh, Shahab | Khoo, Jon-Paul | Kok, Cindy | Laden, Francine | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lan, Qing | Lathlean, Tim | Leasher, Janet L | Leigh, James | Li, Yang | Lin, John Kent | Lipshultz, Steven E | London, Stephanie | Lozano, Rafael | Lu, Yuan | Mak, Joelle | Malekzadeh, Reza | Mallinger, Leslie | Marcenes, Wagner | March, Lyn | Marks, Robin | Martin, Randall | McGale, Paul | McGrath, John | Mehta, Sumi | Mensah, George A | Merriman, Tony R | Micha, Renata | Michaud, Catherine | Mishra, Vinod | Hanafiah, Khayriyyah Mohd | Mokdad, Ali A | Morawska, Lidia | Mozaff arian, Dariush | Murphy, Tasha | Naghavi, Mohsen | Neal, Bruce | Nelson, Paul K | Nolla, Joan Miquel | Norman, Rosana | Olives, Casey | Omer, Saad B | Orchard, Jessica | Osborne, Richard | Ostro, Bart | Page, Andrew | Pandey, Kiran D | Parry, Charles D H | Passmore, Erin | Patra, Jayadeep | Pearce, Neil | Pelizzari, Pamela M | Petzold, Max | Phillips, Michael R | Pope, Dan | Pope III, C Arden | Powles, John | Rao, Mayuree | Razavi, Homie | Rehfuess, Eva A | Rehm, Jürgen T | Ritz, Beate | Rivara, Frederick P | Roberts, Thomas | Robinson, Carolyn | Rodriguez-Portales, Jose A | Romieu, Isabelle | Room, Robin | Rosenfeld, Lisa C | Roy, Ananya | Rushton, Lesley | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Sanchez-Riera, Lidia | Sanman, Ella | Sapkota, Amir | Seedat, Soraya | Shi, Peilin | Shield, Kevin | Shivakoti, Rupak | Singh, Gitanjali M | Sleet, David A | Smith, Emma | Smith, Kirk R | Stapelberg, Nicolas J C | Steenland, Kyle | Stöckl, Heidi | Stovner, Lars Jacob | Straif, Kurt | Straney, Lahn | Thurston, George D | Tran, Jimmy H | Van Dingenen, Rita | van Donkelaar, Aaron | Veerman, J Lennert | Vijayakumar, Lakshmi | Weintraub, Robert | Weissman, Myrna M | White, Richard A | Whiteford, Harvey | Wiersma, Steven T | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Hywel C | Williams, Warwick | Wilson, Nicholas | Woolf, Anthony D | Yip, Paul | Zielinski, Jan M | Lopez, Alan D | Murray, Christopher J L | Ezzati, Majid
Lancet  2012;380(9859):2224-2260.
Summary
Background
Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
Methods
We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.
Findings
In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2–7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5–7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0–5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8–9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6–8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4–6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2–10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water we and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4–1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.
Interpretation
Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(12)61766-8
PMCID: PMC4156511  PMID: 23245609
2.  The risk of perinatal hepatitis B virus transmission: hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) prevalence estimates for all world regions 
BMC Infectious Diseases  2012;12:131.
Background
HBeAg presence in childbearing-age women is a major determinant of perinatal hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission. The risk of developing chronic HBV infection and liver disease is highest at young age. Our aim was to assess perinatal HBV transmission risk by means of estimating age- and region-specific HBeAg prevalence.
Methods
Based on observed HBeAg seroprevalence data obtained from a systematic literature review, we modeled HBeAg prevalence using an empirical Bayesian hierarchical model. Age- and region-specific estimates were generated for 1990 and 2005.
Results
Globally, highest HBeAg prevalence of over 50 % was found in 0–9 years old girls. At reproductive age, HBeAg prevalence was 20-50 %. Prevalence was highest in young females in East Asia in 1990 (78 %), the infection was less common in Sub-Saharan and North Africa. Regional differences in prevalence were smaller in 2005. There was an overall decrease in HBeAg between 1990 and 2005, which was strongest among girls in Oceania (23.3 % decline), South and South-East Asia (14 % decline). However, in these regions, prevalence remained high at 67 % among young females in 2005. Smaller decreases were observed in women at reproductive age, at which 24-32 % of all HBsAg-positive women were HBeAg-positive in 2005, with lowest prevalence in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa and highest prevalence in Oceania and South-East Asia.
Conclusions
HBeAg estimates are crucial for understanding the epidemiology of HBV and for prioritizing implementation of WHO`s prevention recommendations for all infants to receive the first dose of hepatitis B vaccine within 24 hours of birth. Results will have importance as access to treatment for chronic HBV infection is expanded.
doi:10.1186/1471-2334-12-131
PMCID: PMC3478174  PMID: 22682147
Hepatitis B virus; Perinatal transmission; Hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg); Epidemiology; Prevalence; Systematic review
3.  Challenges to mapping the health risk of hepatitis A virus infection 
Background
World maps are among the most effective ways to convey public health messages such as recommended vaccinations, but creating a useful and valid map requires careful deliberation. The changing epidemiology of hepatitis A virus (HAV) in many world regions heightens the need for up-to-date risk maps. HAV infection is usually asymptomatic in children, so low-income areas with high incidence rates usually have a low burden of disease. In higher-income areas, many adults remain susceptible to the virus and, if infected, often experience severe disease.
Results
Several challenges associated with presenting hepatitis A risk using maps were identified, including the need to decide whether prior infection or continued susceptibility more aptly indicates risk, whether to display incidence or prevalence, how to distinguish between different levels of risk, how to display changes in risk over time, how to present complex information to target audiences, and how to handle missing or obsolete data.
Conclusion
For future maps to be comparable across place and time, we propose the use of the age at midpoint of population susceptibility as a standard indicator for the level of hepatitis A endemicity within a world region. We also call for the creation of an accessible active database for population-based age-specific HAV seroprevalence and incidence studies. Health risk maps for other conditions with rapidly changing epidemiology would benefit from similar strategies.
doi:10.1186/1476-072X-10-57
PMCID: PMC3210090  PMID: 22008459
hepatitis A; geographic information systems; health risk maps; risk mapping; vaccine recommendations; global health; travel health
4.  Administration of hepatitis B vaccine in winter as a significant predictor of the poor effectiveness of vaccination in rural Mongolia: evidence from a nationwide survey 
Background
Universal hepatitis B (HB) immunisation is the most effective means for prevention of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection worldwide. Maintaining the vaccine cold chain is an essential part of a successful immunisation programme. Our recent nationwide survey in Mongolia has observed significant urban–rural differences in the prevalence of HBV infection among vaccinated cohorts.
Objective
To examine whether the administration of HB vaccine in winter contributes to these residential discrepancies on the effectiveness of vaccination.
Design and setting
In 2004, a nationwide serosurvey was carried out covering both urban and rural areas of Mongolia. Sampling was multistage, with random probability from all public schools in the country.
Participants
A random sample of 1145 children (51.7% boys; aged 7–12 years), representative of Mongolian elementary school children.
Results
Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that total (past and current) HBV infection (OR 2.31, 95% CI 1.20 to 4.42; p = 0.012) was independently associated with the administration of all HB vaccines in winter. An increased OR for current HBV infection was also observed (OR 2.58, 95% CI 0.87 to 7.68; p = 0.089), but without significance. Interestingly, after stratifying by residence, the association between winter vaccination and total HBV infection was evident for rural (p = 0.008) but not for urban areas (p = 0.294). The frequency of vaccine‐induced immunity was significantly (p = 0.007) lower for those who received HB vaccine at birth during winter in rural areas.
Conclusion
Administration of HB vaccine during winter is an important predictor of the low effectiveness of vaccination in rural Mongolia. To improve the effectiveness of HB vaccination in remote areas, cold chain control should be addressed with particular attention to the winter season.
doi:10.1136/jech.2006.051375
PMCID: PMC2465751  PMID: 17568048
5.  Florida Epidemic Intelligence Service Program: The First Five Years, 2001–2006 
Public Health Reports  2008;123(Suppl 1):21-27.
SYNOPSIS
The Florida Epidemic Intelligence Service Program was created in 2001 to increase epidemiologic capacity within the state. Patterned after applied epidemiology training programs such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Epidemic Intelligence Service and the California Epidemiologic Investigation Service, the two-year postgraduate program is designed to train public leaders of the future. The long-term goal is to increase the capacity of the Florida Department of Health to respond to new challenges in disease control and prevention. Placement is with experienced epidemiologists in county health departments/consortia. Fellows participate in didactic and experiential components, and complete core activities for learning as evidence of competency. As evidenced by graduate employment, the program is successfully meeting its goal. As of 2006, three classes (n=18) have graduated. Among graduates, 83% are employed as epidemiologists, 67% in Florida. Training in local health departments and an emphasis on graduate retention may assist states in strengthening their epidemiologic capacity.
PMCID: PMC2233739  PMID: 18497015
6.  Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease Death, United States 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2005;11(9):1351-1354.
Reports of secondary bloodborne transmission of vCJD add to the uncertainty about the future of the vCJD outbreak.
The only variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) patient identified in the United States died in 2004, and the diagnosis was confirmed by analysis of autopsy tissue. The patient likely acquired the disease while growing up in Great Britain before immigrating to the United States in 1992. Additional vCJD patients continue to be identified outside the United Kingdom, including 2 more patients in Ireland, and 1 patient each in Japan, Portugal, Saudi Arabia, Spain, and the Netherlands. The reports of bloodborne transmission of vCJD in 2 patients, 1 of whom was heterozygous for methionine and valine at polymorphic codon 129, add to the uncertainty about the future of the vCJD outbreak.
doi:10.3201/eid1109.050371
PMCID: PMC3310634  PMID: 16229761
Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease; variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease; prion disease; transmissible spongiform encephalopathy; epidemiology; surveillance; public health; research
7.  Severe Histoplasmosis in Travelers to Nicaragua 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2003;9(10):1322-1325.
We investigated an outbreak of unexpectedly severe histoplasmosis among 14 healthy adventure travelers from the United States who visited a bat-infested cave in Nicaragua. Although histoplasmosis has rarely been reported to cause serious illness among travelers, this outbreak demonstrates that cases may be severe among travelers, even young, healthy persons.
doi:10.3201/eid0910.030049
PMCID: PMC3033095  PMID: 14609473
8.  Mass Vaccination Campaign Following Community Outbreak of Meningococcal Disease 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2002;8(12):1398-1403.
During December 12–29, 1998, seven patients ages 2–18 years were diagnosed with serogroup C meningococcal disease in two neighboring Florida towns with 33,000 residents. We evaluated a mass vaccination campaign implemented to control the outbreak. We maintained vaccination logs and recorded the resources used in the campaign that targeted 2- to 22-year-old residents of the two towns. A total of 13,148 persons received the vaccinations in 3 days. Vaccination coverage in the target population was estimated to be 86% to 99%. Five additional cases of serogroup C meningococcal disease occurred in the community during the year after the campaign began, four in patients who had not received the vaccine. The cost of control efforts was approximately $370,000. Although cases continued to occur, the vaccination campaign appeared to control the outbreak. Rapid implementation, a targeted approach, and high coverage were important to the campaign's success.
doi:10.3201/eid0812.010421
PMCID: PMC2738498  PMID: 12498654
meningococcal vaccine; meningococcal meningitis; serotype C; bioterrorism; disease outbreaks; epidemiology
9.  First Case of Bioterrorism-Related Inhalational Anthrax in the United States, Palm Beach County, Florida, 2001 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2002;8(10):1029-1034.
On October 4, 2001, we confirmed the first bioterrorism-related anthrax case identified in the United States in a resident of Palm Beach County, Florida. Epidemiologic investigation indicated that exposure occurred at the workplace through intentionally contaminated mail. One additional case of inhalational anthrax was identified from the index patient’s workplace. Among 1,076 nasal cultures performed to assess exposure, Bacillus anthracis was isolated from a co-worker later confirmed as being infected, as well as from an asymptomatic mail-handler in the same workplace. Environmental cultures for B. anthracis showed contamination at the workplace and six county postal facilities. Environmental and nasal swab cultures were useful epidemiologic tools that helped direct the investigation towards the infection source and transmission vehicle. We identified 1,114 persons at risk and offered antimicrobial prophylaxis.
doi:10.3201/eid0810.020354
PMCID: PMC2730309  PMID: 12396910
Anthrax; Bacillus anthracis; bioterrorism; nasal swab cultures; environmental cultures
10.  Investigation of Bioterrorism-Related Anthrax, United States, 2001: Epidemiologic Findings 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2002;8(10):1019-1028.
In October 2001, the first inhalational anthrax case in the United States since 1976 was identified in a media company worker in Florida. A national investigation was initiated to identify additional cases and determine possible exposures to Bacillus anthracis. Surveillance was enhanced through health-care facilities, laboratories, and other means to identify cases, which were defined as clinically compatible illness with laboratory-confirmed B. anthracis infection. From October 4 to November 20, 2001, 22 cases of anthrax (11 inhalational, 11 cutaneous) were identified; 5 of the inhalational cases were fatal. Twenty (91%) case-patients were either mail handlers or were exposed to worksites where contaminated mail was processed or received. B. anthracis isolates from four powder-containing envelopes, 17 specimens from patients, and 106 environmental samples were indistinguishable by molecular subtyping. Illness and death occurred not only at targeted worksites, but also along the path of mail and in other settings. Continued vigilance for cases is needed among health-care providers and members of the public health and law enforcement communities.
doi:10.3201/eid0810.020353
PMCID: PMC2730292  PMID: 12396909

Results 1-10 (10)