Stratification of individuals at risk for chronic kidney disease may allow optimization of preventive measures to reduce disease incidence and complications. We sought to develop a risk score that estimates an individual’s absolute risk of incident chronic kidney disease.
Framingham Heart Study participants free of baseline chronic kidney disease, who attended a baseline examination in 1995–1998 and follow-up in 2005–2008, were included in the analysis (n=2,490). Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73m2 using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation. Participants were assessed for the development of chronic kidney disease at 10 years follow-up. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify chronic kidney disease risk factors, and these were used to construct a risk score predicting 10-year chronic kidney disease risk. Performance characteristics were assessed using calibration and discrimination measures. The final model was externally validated in the bi-ethnic Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (n=1,777).
There were 1,171 men and 1,319 women at baseline, and the mean age was 57.1 years. At follow-up, 9.2% (n=229) had developed chronic kidney disease. Age, diabetes, hypertension, baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria were independently associated with incident chronic kidney disease (p<0.05), and these covariates were incorporated into a risk function (c-statistic 0.813). In external validation in the ARIC study, the c-statistic was 0.79 in whites (n=1,353) and 0.75 in blacks (n=424).
Risk stratification for chronic kidney disease is achievable using a risk score derived from clinical factors that are readily accessible in primary care. The utility of this score in identifying individuals in the community at high risk of chronic kidney disease warrants further investigation.
Increased acid excretion may promote renal injury. To evaluate this in African Americans with hypertensive nephrosclerosis, we studied the association between the net endogenous acid production and progression of kidney disease in 632 patients in the AASK trial. Protein and potassium intakes were estimated from 24-hour urea nitrogen and potassium excretion, and used to estimate net endogenous acid production, averaged over 2 years, approximating routine intake. The link between net endogenous acid production and the I125iothalamate glomerular filtration rate (iGFR) and time to end stage renal disease or doubling of serum creatinine was analyzed using mixed models and Cox proportional hazards regressions. The trend in higher net endogenous acid production was significantly associated with a faster decline in iGFR over a median of 3.2 years. After adjustment for age, body mass index, baseline iGFR, urine protein to creatinine ratio and randomized treatment group, the trend in higher net endogenous acid production remained significantly associated with a faster decline in iGFR at a rate 1.01 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year faster in the highest to the lowest quartile. However, in time to event analyses over a median of 7.7 years, the adjusted hazard ratio (1.10) for composite renal events per 25 mEq/day higher net endogenous acid production was not significant. Hence, our findings implicate endogenous acid production as a potential modifiable risk factor for progressive kidney disease.
Identification of persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are at highest risk to progress to end stage renal disease (ESRD) is necessary to reduce the burden of kidney failure. The relative utility of traditional markers of kidney function, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and serum creatinine, and emerging markers of kidney function, including cystatin C and beta-trace protein (BTP), to predict ESRD and mortality has yet to be established.
Randomized clinical trial followed by an observational cohort study.
Setting & Participants
865 African American individuals with hypertensive CKD enrolled in a clinical trial of two levels of blood pressure control and three different antihypertensive drugs as initial therapy and subsequently followed by an observational cohort study.
Quintile of measured GFR (mGFR) by iothalamate clearance, serum creatinine, serum creatinine-based estimated GFR (eGFRSCr), cystatin C, and BTP.
Outcomes and Measurements
Incidence of ESRD and mortality.
A total of 246 participants reached ESRD over a median follow-up of 102 months. The incidence rate of ESRD was higher with higher quintiles of each marker. The association between higher BTP and ESRD was stronger than those for the other markers, including mGFR. All the markers remained significantly associated with ESRD after adjustment for mGFR and relevant covariates (all p<0.05), with BTP retaining the strongest association (HR for highest versus lowest quintile, 5.7; 95% CI, 2.2-14.9). Associations with the combined endpoint of ESRD or mortality (n=390) were weaker, but remained significant for cystatin C (p=0.05) and BTP (p=0.004).
The ability of these markers to predict ESRD and mortality in other racial and ethnic groups and among individuals with CKD due to other causes is unknown.
Plasma BTP and cystatin C may be useful adjuncts to serum creatinine and mGFR in evaluating risk for progression of kidney disease.
End-stage renal disease; beta trace protein; cystatin C; serum creatinine; iothalamate glomerular filtration rate
Early detection of individuals at high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) may aid prevention. Urinary levels of trefoil factor 3 (TFF3) are associated with acute kidney injury in animal models, but the association of TFF3 levels with incident CKD in humans is unknown.
We conducted a case-control study nested within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and the ARIC Carotid MRI Study to determine whether urinary TFF3 levels predict incident CKD over 8.6 years of follow-up. A total of 143 participants with incident CKD (eGFR decreasing by ≥25% to <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) were matched on age, sex and race to 143 non-cases.
Higher TFF3 levels at baseline were strongly associated with Black race, diabetes (both p = 0.002), and antihypertensive medication use (p = 0.02). Compared to participants with TFF3 levels in the lowest quartile, the odds ratio (OR) of incident CKD was 1.84 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.80, 4.22) for individuals with TFF3 levels in the second quartile, 2.43 (95% CI: 1.06, 5.53) for the third quartile, and 2.77 (95% CI: 1.22, 6.28) for the fourth quartile (p trend = 0.02). Adjustment for covariates, including urinary albumin: creatinine ratio, did not markedly change the associations. Twofold higher TFF3 levels were strongly associated with incident CKD after adjustment for CKD risk factors (adjusted OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.64).
Higher urinary TFF3 levels may indicate ongoing repair of damage in the kidney. Additional studies are needed to confirm whether TFF3 can be useful as a marker of increased risk for CKD.
Kidney disease; Tubulointerstitual disease; Biomarkers
To testthe hypothesis that inflammation measured by white blood cell count (WBC) and C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated positively with incident heart failure (HF).
Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we conducted separate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses for WBC (measured 1987 to 1989) and CRP (measured 1996 to 1998) in relation to subsequent heart failure occurrence. A total of 14,485 and 9,978 individuals were included in the WBC and CRP analyses, respectively.
There were 1647 participants that developed HF during follow up after WBC assessment and 613 developed HF after CRP assessment. After adjustment for demographic variables and traditional HF risk factors, the hazard ratio (95% CI)for incident HF across quintiles of WBC was 1.0, 1.10 (0.9-1.34), 1.27(1.05-1.53), 1.44(1.19-1.74), and 1.62(1.34-1.96) (p trend <0.001); hazard ratio across quintiles of CRP was 1.0, 1.03 (0.68-1.55), 0.99 (0.66-1.51), 1.40 (0.94-2.09) and 1.70 (1.14-2.53) (p trend 0.002). Granulocytes appeared to drive the relation between WBCs and heart failure [hazard ratios across quintiles: 1.0, 0.93(0.76-1.15), 1.26 (1.04-1.53), 1.67(1.39-2.01) and 2.19 (1.83-2.61) (p trend <0.0001)], while lymphocytes or monocytes were not related.
Greater levels of WBC (especially granulocytes) and CRP are associated with increased risk of heart failure in middle-aged adults, independent of traditional risk factors.
Prospective Study; Risk Factors; Heart Failure; Inflammation; C-Reactive Protein; Leukocytes; Granulocytes
Cystatin C has been proposed as an alternative marker of kidney function among HIV-infected persons in whom serum creatinine is affected by extra-renal factors.
In this cross-sectional study, we compared estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) using serum creatinine versus cystatin C between 150 HIV-uninfected and 783 HIV-infected men. We evaluated the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD; eGFR<60 mL/min/1.73 m2) and examined the influence of extra-renal factors on GFR-estimates among HIV-infected men.
Estimated GFRSCR was similar by HIV serostatus, but eGFRCYSC was lower in HIV-infected men. A higher proportion of HIV-infected men were classified as having CKD when using eGFRCYSC versus eGFRSCR (7% vs. 5%, P<0.01). In HIV-infected individuals without CKD, eGFRSCR was higher than eGFRCYSC while it was lower than eGFRCYSC in persons with CKD. In HIV-infected men, older age, proteinuria, and prior clinical AIDS were inversely associated with both GFR-estimates. Higher serum albumin levels and ACE-inhibitor/ARB use were associated with lower eGFRSCR. HIV viral load, hepatitis C co-infection, and serum alkaline phosphatase were inversely associated with eGFRCYSC.
Among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected men of similar social risk behaviors, GFR estimates differed by biomarker and kidney function level. Estimated GFRCYSC classified a larger proportion of HIV-infected men with CKD compared to eGFRSCR. Differences between these GFR-estimating methods may be due to the effects of extra-renal factors on serum creatinine and cystatin C. Until GFR-estimating equations are validated among HIV-infected individuals, current GFR estimates based on these biomarkers should be interpreted with care in this patient population.
HIV; kidney disease; serum creatinine; cystatin C; glomerular filtration rate; Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with the incidence of cardiovascular disease. CKD may also increase the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), but existing studies have reported inconsistent results.
Methods and Results
We estimated cystatin C-based glomerular filtration rate (eGFRcys) and measured urinary albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) in 10,328 men and women free of AF from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study in 1996–98. Incidence of AF was ascertained through the end of 2007. During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, we identified 788 incident AF cases. Compared to individuals with eGFRcys ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2, multivariable hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of AF were 1.3 (1.1–1.6), 1.6 (1.3–2.1), and 3.2 (2.0–5.0) (p for trend <0.0001) in those with eGFRcys of 60–89, 30–59 and 15–29 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. Similarly, presence of macroalbuminuria (ACR ≥300 mg/g, HR 3.2, 95% CI 2.3–4.5) and microalbuminuria (ACR 30–299 mg/g, HR 2.0, 95% CI 1.6–2.4) were associated with higher AF risk compared to those with ACR <30 mg/g. Risk of AF was particularly elevated in those with both low eGFRcys and macroalbuminuria (HR 13.1, 95% CI 6.0–28.6, comparing individuals with ACR≥300 mg/g and eGFRcys 15–29 vs. ACR<30 mg/g and eGFRcys ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2).
In this large population-based study, reduced kidney function and presence of albuminuria were strongly associated with the incidence of AF independently of other risk factors.
Epidemiology; atrial fibrillation; kidney
The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation for estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFRCKD-EPI) improves GFR estimation compared with the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation (eGFRMDRD) but its association with mortality in a nationally representative population sample in the US has not been studied.
We examined the association between eGFR and mortality among 16,010 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III). Primary predictors were eGFRCKD-EPI and eGFRMDRD. Outcomes of interest were all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Improvement in risk categorization with eGFRCKD-EPI was evaluated using adjusted relative hazard (HR) and Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI).
Overall, 26.9% of the population was reclassified to higher eGFR categories and 2.2% to lower eGFR categories by eGFRCKD-EPI, reducing the proportion of prevalent CKD classified as stage 3–5 from 45.6% to 28.8%. There were 3,620 deaths (1,540 from CVD) during 215,082 person-years of follow-up (median, 14.3 years). Among those with eGFRMDRD 30–59 ml/min/1.73 m2, 19.4% were reclassified to eGFRCKD-EPI 60–89 ml/min/1.73 m2 and these individuals had a lower risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.34-0.84) and CVD mortality (adjusted HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96) compared with those not reclassified. Among those with eGFRMDRD >60 ml/min/1.73 m2, 0.5% were reclassified to lower eGFRCKD-EPI and these individuals had a higher risk of all-cause (adjusted HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.01-1.69) and CVD (adjusted HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01-1.99) mortality compared with those not reclassified. Risk prediction improved with eGFRCKD-EPI; NRI was 0.21 for all-cause mortality (p < 0.001) and 0.22 for CVD mortality (p < 0.001).
eGFRCKD-EPI categories improve mortality risk stratification of individuals in the US population. If eGFRCKD-EPI replaces eGFRMDRD in the US, it will likely improve risk stratification.
Glomerular filtration rate; Chronic kidney disease; Epidemiology; Outcomes
Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) is involved in the development and progression of kidney diseases including diabetic nephropathy and kidney fibrosis, but may also play a role in mesangial repair following injury. It is unknown whether, in the general population, urinary CTGF levels are associated with reduction of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to less than 60 ml/min/1.73m2 (ie, development of chronic kidney disease [CKD] stage 3).
Setting & Participants
100 cases of incident CKD stage 3 and 100 age-and sex-matched controls in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS); 141 cases and 135 age-, sexand race-matched controls in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Controls had eGFR ≥60 ml/min/1.73m2 at follow-up in both studies.
Urinary CTGF concentrations.
Incident CKD stage 3, defined as eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2.
Stored urine samples from Framingham Heart Study and ARIC were measured for CTGF. Covariates were obtained from Framingham Heart Study and ARIC participant examinations.
In Framingham Heart Study, the median baseline urinary CTGF concentration was lower among cases (1.35 ng/mL) than controls (2.35 ng/mL; paired t-test P<0.0001). The multivariable-adjusted OR for incident CKD stage 3 was 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.17–0.64; P<0.001) per 1-standard deviation increase in log urinary CTGF after adjustment for CKD risk factors, baseline eGFR and baseline log urinary albumin-creatinine ratio, with similar results among participants without diabetes (n=184). Results were not materially different when urinary CTGF was indexed to urinary creatinine (multivariable-adjusted OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.21–0.56; P<0.001). A similar, but non-significant, trend of risk of incident CKD stage 3 with lower baseline urinary CTGF concentration was observed in an independent case-control study conducted in the ARIC Study, with the strongest results observed among participants free of diabetes. This inverse relationship was robust in meta-analysis of both the overall and diabetes-free groups.
Observational study; causality cannot be inferred.
Lower urinary CTGF concentrations precede the onset of CKD stage 3 in the general population. Further work is required to fully characterize how CTGF influences risk of CKD.
Blood pressure (BP) guidelines that set target BP levels often rely on analyses of achieved BP from hypertension treatment trials. The objective of this paper was to compare the results of analyses of achieved BP to intention-to-treat analyses on renal disease progression. Participants (n=1,094) in the African-American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension Trial were randomized to either: (1) usual BP goal defined by a mean arterial pressure (MAP) goal of 102–107 mmHg or (2) lower BP goal defined by a MAP goal of ≤ 92 mmHg. Median follow-up was 3.7 years. Primary outcomes were rate of decline in measured glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and a composite of a decrease in GFR by > 50% or >25 ml/min/1.73m2, requirement for dialysis, transplantation, or death. Intention-to-treat analyses showed no evidence of a BP effect on either the rate of decline in GFR or the clinical composite outcome. In contrast, the achieved BP analyses showed that each 10 mm Hg increment in mean follow-up achieved MAP was associated with a 0.35 (95% CI 0.08 – 0.62, p = 0.01) ml/min/1.73m2 faster mean GFR decline and a 17% (95% CI 5% – 32%, p = 0.006) increased risk of the clinical composite outcome. Analyses based on achieved BP lead to markedly different inferences than traditional intention-to-treat analyses, due in part to confounding of achieved BP with co- morbidities, disease severity and adherence. Clinicians and policy makers should exercise caution when making treatment recommendations based on analyses relating outcomes to achieved BP.
blood pressure control; African Americans; hypertension treatment; renal disease
We evaluated whether cardiac troponin T (cTnT) measured with a new highly sensitive assay was associated with incident coronary heart disease (CHD), mortality, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF) in a general population of participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.
Methods and Results
Associations between increasing cTnT levels and CHD, mortality, and HF hospitalization were evaluated using Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for traditional CHD risk factors, kidney function, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), and N-terminal pro–B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in 9,698 participants aged 54–74 years who at baseline were free from CHD and stroke (and HF in the HF analysis). Measurable cTnT levels (≥0.003 μg/L) were detected in 66.5% of individuals. In fully adjusted models, compared with participants with undetectable levels, those with cTnT levels in the highest category (≥0.014 μg/L, 7.4% of the ARIC population) had significantly increased risk for CHD (hazard ratio [HR] 2.29, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.81–2.89), fatal CHD (HR 7.59, 95% CI 3.78–15.25), total mortality (HR 3.96, 95% CI 3.21–4.88), and HF (HR 5.95, 95% CI 4.47–7.92). Even minimally elevated cTnT (≥0.003 μg/L) was associated with increased risk for mortality and HF (p<0.05). Adding cTnT to traditional risk factors improved risk prediction parameters; the improvements were similar to those with NT-proBNP and better than that with the addition of hs-CRP.
cTnT detectable with a highly sensitive assay was associated with incident CHD, mortality, and HF in individuals from a general population without known CHD/stroke.
coronary disease; heart failure; risk factors; troponin
Glycated hemoglobin was recently recommended for use as a diagnostic test for diabetes. We examined the association between 2010 American Diabetes Association diagnostic cut points for glycated hemoglobin and microvascular outcomes (chronic kidney disease, end-stage renal disease [ESRD], and retinopathy) and formally tested for the presence of risk thresholds in the relationships of glycated hemoglobin with these outcomes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Prospective cohort and cross-sectional analyses of 11,357 participants (773 with a history of diagnosed diabetes) from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.
During a median of 14 years of follow-up of individuals without diagnosed diabetes at baseline, clinical categories of glycated hemoglobin were associated with risk of chronic kidney disease, with adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.12 (0.94–1.34) and 1.39 (1.04–1.85) for glycated hemoglobin 5.7–6.4% and ≥6.5%, respectively, as compared with <5.7% (P trend = 0.002). The corresponding HRs for ESRD were 1.51 (0.82–2.76) and 1.98 (0.83–4.73), respectively (P trend = 0.047). In the absence of diagnosed diabetes, glycated hemoglobin was cross sectionally associated with the presence of moderate/severe retinopathy, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.42 (0.69–2.92) and 2.91 (1.19–7.11) for glycated hemoglobin 5.7–<6.5% and ≥6.5%, respectively, compared with <5.7% (P trend = 0.011). Risk associations were stronger among individuals with a history of diabetes. We did not observe significant thresholds in the associations of glycated hemoglobin with kidney disease risk or retinopathy.
These data from a community-based, biracial population support the use of new 2010 American Diabetes Association glycated hemoglobin cut points for the diagnosis of diabetes.
In the early highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era, kidney dysfunction was strongly associated with death among HIV-infected individuals. We re-examined this association in the later HAART period to determine whether chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains a predictor of death after HAART-initiation.
To evaluate the effect of kidney function at the time of HAART initiation on time to all-cause mortality, we evaluated 1415 HIV-infected women initiating HAART in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study (WIHS). Multivariable proportional hazards models with survival times calculated from HAART initiation to death were constructed; participants were censored at the time of the last available visit or December 31, 2006.
CKD (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) at HAART initiation was associated with higher mortality risk adjusting for age, race, hepatitis C serostatus, AIDS history and CD4+ cell count (hazard ratio [HR]=2.23, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.45–3.43). Adjustment for hypertension and diabetes history attenuated this association (HR=1.89, CI: 0.94–3.80). Lower kidney function at HAART initiation was weakly associated with increased mortality risk in women with prior AIDS (HR=1.09, CI: 1.00–1.19, per 20% decrease in eGFR).
Kidney function at HAART initiation remains an independent predictor of death in HIV-infected individuals, especially in those with a history of AIDS. Our study emphasizes the necessity of monitoring kidney function in this population. Additional studies are needed to determine mechanisms underlying the increased mortality risk associated with CKD in HIV-infected persons.
kidney disease; mortality; HIV; WIHS; antiretroviral therapy
Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is associated with increased rates of cardiovascular disease and mortality, particularly among middle-aged persons. However, little is known about the association of OH with chronic kidney disease (CKD).
Methods and Results
Postural changes in blood pressure (BP) were estimated using the difference between the average of multiple supine and standing BP measurements. OH was defined as a decrease in systolic BP ≥ 20 mm Hg, or a decrease in diastolic BP ≥ 10 mm Hg upon standing. Incident CKD was defined as an increase in serum creatinine ≥ 0.4 mg/dL at the 3- or 9-year follow-up visits, or a hospitalization (discharge) or death due to CKD. Urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR, mg/g) was obtained at visit 4 and used to define albuminuria (ACR≥ 30 mg/g). The association between OH and incident CKD and between OH and categories of albuminuria were modeled using adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and logistic regression, respectively. Among 12,593 individuals, 1,019 developed CKD (3.9 cases/1,000 person-years) over a mean of 16 years. A significantly increased risk of CKD was observed among individuals with OH compared to those without OH after adjustment (hazard ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval, 1.36, 2.06). OH was associated with increased risk of albuminuria (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.21, 2.29).
These findings suggest that OH increases the risk of CKD in middle-aged persons.
Background. The incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is increased with severe kidney disease, but whether less-severe chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases the risk of VTE is less certain.
Methods. We studied this in a prospective cohort of 10 700 whites and African Americans, aged 53–75 years, attending Visit 4 (1996–98) of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values were estimated from prediction equations based on serum creatinine (eGFRcreat) or cystatin C (eGFRcys). Normal kidney function was defined as eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2, mildly decreased kidney function as eGFR between 60 and 89 ml/min/1.73 m2 and Stage 3 to 4 CKD as eGFR between 15 and 59 ml/min/1.73 m2. VTE occurrence (n = 228) was ascertained over a median of 8.3 years.
Results. For eGFRcys, the age-, race- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios of total VTE were 1.0, 1.40 and 1.94 (P trend = 0.003) for normal kidney function, mildly impaired kidney function and Stage 3 to 4 CKD, respectively. These respective hazard ratios were moderately attenuated to 1.0, 1.26 and 1.60 (P trend = 0.04) with adjustment for hormone replacement therapy, diabetes and body mass index. Associations between CKD based on eGFRcys and VTE were slightly stronger for idiopathic VTE than for secondary VTE. In contrast, CKD based on eGFRcreat was not associated with total VTE occurrence.
Conclusions. Stage 3 to 4 CKD, based on eGFRcys but not eGFRcreat, was associated with an approximately 1.6-fold increased risk of VTE.
chronic kidney disease; prospective study; pulmonary embolism; venous thromboembolism
Background. Anaemia worsens as kidney function declines. Both conditions are associated with increased mortality. Serum cystatin C is purportedly a more sensitive marker of kidney disease and a better predictor of mortality than serum creatinine. However, studies suggest that extrarenal factors also influence cystatin C levels.
Methods. We determined whether estimates of glomerular filtration rate [estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR)] based on serum cystatin C alone or in combination with serum creatinine were superior to those based on serum creatinine in recognizing impaired kidney function in the setting of anaemia in a sub-sample of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey of the USA consisting of 6734 participants, 20 years or older.
Results. The prevalence of moderate to severe kidney disease (eGFR 15–59 mL/min/1.73 m2) among anaemic persons was 15–16% when based on serum creatinine alone (eGFRSCR) or combined with cystatin C (eGFRSCR + CYSC); this estimate increased to nearly 25% when kidney function was estimated by cystatin C (eGFRCYSC). The adjusted odds ratios of kidney disease in anaemic versus non-anaemic persons were slightly higher with eGFRCYSC than eGFRSCR and eGFRSCR + CYSC in younger adults [odds ratio (OR) = 5.22, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.23, 12.17], women (OR = 5.34, 95% CI: 2.36, 12.06) and those with elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR = 7.36, 95% CI: 1.98–27.36).
Conclusions. Impaired kidney function was common in individuals with anaemia. Among anaemic individuals, the prevalence estimate for kidney disease was notably higher when kidney function was estimated by cystatin C alone compared with the estimations by serum creatinine alone or in combination with serum cystatin C. eGFRCYSC may be particularly helpful in identifying kidney disease in the setting of anaemia among younger persons, women and those with elevated CRP. Regardless of which renal biomarker is used, our study suggests that an evaluation for underlying kidney disease should be considered in the standard workup of anaemia.
anaemia; chronic kidney failure; creatinine; cystatin C; glomerular filtration rate
The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently published an equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the same variables (serum creatinine, age, gender and race) as the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD) equation. Although the CKD-EPI equation estimates GFR more precisely as compared with the MDRD equation, whether this equation improves risk prediction is unknown.
Prospective cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.
Setting & Participants
13,905 middle-aged participants without a history of cardiovascular disease with median follow-up of 16.9 years.
Outcomes & Measurements
We compared the association of eGFR in categories (≥120, 90–119, 60–89, 30–59, <30 ml/min/1.73m2) by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations with risk of incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD), all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke.
Median of eGFRCKD-EPI was higher than that of eGFRMDRD (97.6 vs. 88.8 ml/min/1.73m2, P<0.001). The CKD-EPI equation reclassified 44.9% (n=3,079) and 43.5% (n=151) of participants with eGFRMDRD 60–89 and 30–59, respectively, upward to a higher eGFR category but no one with eGFRMDRD 90–119 or <30, lowering the prevalence of CKD stage 3–5 from 2.7% to 1.6%. Participants with eGFRMDRD 30–59 who were reclassified upward had lower risk as compared to those who were not reclassified (ESRD incidence rate ratio, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.03–0.33], all-cause mortality, 0.30 [0.19–0.48], CHD, 0.36 [0.21–0.61], stroke, 0.50 [0.24–1.01]). Similar results were observed for participants with eGFRMDRD 60–89. More frequent reclassification of younger, female, and white participants explained some of these trends. Net reclassification improvement among participants with eGFR <120 was positive for all outcomes (P<0.001).
Limited number of cases with eGFR <60 and no measurement of albuminuria.
The CKD-EPI equation more appropriately categorized individuals with respect to long-term clinical risk as compared to the MDRD equation, suggesting improved clinical usefulness in this middle-aged population.
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has a heritable component and is an important global public health problem because of its high prevalence and morbidity.1 We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to identify susceptibility loci for glomerular filtration rate estimated by serum creatinine (eGFRcrea), cystatin C (eGFRcys), and CKD (eGFRcrea<60 ml/min/1.73m2) in European-ancestry participants of four populations-based cohorts (ARIC, CHS, FHS, RS; n=19,877, 2,388 CKD cases), and tested for external replication in 21,466 participants (1,932 CKD cases). Significant associations (p<5*10−8) were identified for SNPs with  CKD at the UMOD locus;  eGFRcrea at the UMOD, SHROOM3, and GATM/SPATA5L1 loci;  eGFRcys at the CST and STC1 loci. UMOD encodes the most common protein in human urine, Tamm-Horsfall protein,2 and rare mutations in UMOD cause Mendelian forms of kidney disease.3 Our findings provide new insights into CKD pathogenesis and underscore the importance of common genetic variants influencing renal function and disease.
chronic kidney disease; renal function; epidemiology; genetics; genome-wide association study; single nucleotide polymorphism
To describe the proportion of “JUPITER-eligible” individuals and clinical outcomes of individuals based on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) strata in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Questions remain after the JUPITER study including whether the observed cardiovascular disease (CVD) event rates would persist with time and how these event rates would compare with other populations (lower hs-CRP and/or higher LDL-C levels).
After stratification into 4 groups based on LDL-C and hs-CRP levels, with cutoffs at 130 mg/dL and 2.0 mg/L, respectively incident CVD events were examined (mean follow-up 6.9 years) and compared.
Of 8,907 age-eligible participants, 18.2% (n=1,621) were “JUPITER-eligible” (hs-CRP ≥2.0 mg/L, LDL-C <130 mg/dL) and had an absolute CVD risk of ~10.9% over a mean follow-up of 6.9 years (1.57% per year). If JUPITER hazard ratios were applied to this group, the number needed to treat to prevent one CVD event would be estimated at 38 over 5 years and 26 over 6.9 years.
ARIC participants with elevated hs-CRP and low LDL-C had a CVD event rate of 1.57% per year over 6.9 years similar to the CVD event rate noted in the JUPITER study placebo group (1.36% per year over 1.9 years). The association of hs-CRP ≥2.0 mg/L with increased CVD risk and mortality regardless of LDL-C provides us a simple method of using age and hs-CRP for identifying higher risk individuals.
hs-CRP; LDL-C; ARIC; lipids; cardiovascular disease
To measure carotid plaque components using MRI and estimate reliability in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.
Materials and Methods
Contrast-enhanced high-resolution (0.51 × 0.58 × 2 mm3) MRI images were acquired through internal (ICA) and common carotid arteries (CCA) of 2066 ARIC participants at four sites. Sixty-one exams were repeated and 164 pairs had repeated interpretations. Plaque component thicknesses, areas and volumes over eight slices (1.6-cm segment) were measured. Intraplaque hemorrhage was recorded. Reliability was evaluated by intraclass correlations and κ statistics.
There were 1769 successful MRI exams (mean age 71 years; 57% females; 81% white; 19% African-Americans). Repeat scan reliability was highest for CCA lumen area (0.94) and maximum wall thickness (0.89), ICA lumen area (0.89) and maximum wall thickness (0.77) and total wall volume (0.79), and lowest for small structures—core volume (0.30) and mean cap thickness (0.38). Overall reliability was primarily related to reader variability rather than scan acquisition. K’s for presence of core, calcification and hemorrhage were fair to good. White men had the thickest plaques (average maximum ICA wall thickness = 2.3 mm) and the most cores (34%).
The most important limiting factor for MRI measurements of plaque components is reader variability. Measurement error depends largely on the analyzed structure’s size.
atherosclerosis; epidemiology; magnetic resonance imaging; plaque; statistics
The role of inflammation in the causation of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is uncertain. In 10,505 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we assessed the association of the systemic inflammation marker, elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), with incidence of VTE (n=221) over a median of 8.3 years of follow-up. Adjusted for age, race, and sex, the hazard ratios of VTE across quintiles of CRP were 1.0, 1.61, 1.16, 1.56, and 2.31 (p for trend p<0.0007). For CRP above the upper 10 percentile (≥8.55 mg/L), compared with the lowest 90% of CRP values, the hazard ratio of VTE was 2.07 (95% CI 1.47, 2.94). Further adjustment for baseline hormone replacement therapy, diabetes, and body mass index attenuated the hazard ratios only slightly. For example, the adjusted hazard ratio of VTE was 1.76 (95% CI 1.23, 2.52) for CRP above versus below the 90th percentile. In conclusion, this prospective, population-based study suggests elevated CRP is independently associated with increased risk of VTE.
C-reactive protein; prospective study; pulmonary embolus; venous thrombosis
To test the hypothesis that A1C is associated with subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a population without evident diabetes, after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors and BMI.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
This was a cross-sectional study of 5,121 participants without clinically evident CVD or diabetes (fasting glucose ≥7.0 mmol/l or use of diabetes medication), aged 47–86 years, enrolled in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Measurements included carotid intimal-medial wall thickness (CIMT) and coronary artery calcification (CAC). Results were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, systolic blood pressure, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, antihypertensive medication use, lipid-lowering medication use, and BMI.
Compared with those in the lowest quartile for A1C ([mean ± SD] 5.0 ± 0.2%), participants in the highest quartile (6.0 ± 0.3%) had higher adjusted mean values for common CIMT (0.85 vs. 0.87 mm, P = 0.003) and internal CIMT (1.01 vs. 1.08 mm, P = 0.003). A1C quartile was not associated with prevalence of CAC in the entire cohort (P = 0.27); however, the association was statistically significant in women (adjusted prevalence of CAC in lowest and highest A1C quartiles 37.5 vs. 43.0%, P = 0.01). Among those with some CAC, higher A1C quartile tended to be associated with higher CAC score, but the results were not statistically significant (adjusted P = 0.11).
In this multiethnic cohort, there were small, positive associations between A1C, common CIMT, and internal CIMT in the absence of clinically evident diabetes. An association between higher A1C and CAC prevalence was evident only in women.
Background Accumulating evidence implicates insufficient oxidative capacity in the development of type 2 diabetes. This notion has not been well tested in large, population-based studies.
Methods To test this hypothesis, we assessed the cross-sectional association of plasma lactate, an indicator of the gap between oxidative capacity and energy expenditure, with type 2 diabetes in 1709 older adults not taking metformin, who were participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Carotid MRI Study.
Results The prevalence of type 2 diabetes rose across lactate quartiles (11, 14, 20 and 30%; P for trend <0.0001). Following adjustment for demographic factors, physical activity, body mass index and waist circumference, the relative odds of type 2 diabetes across lactate quartiles were 0.98 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59–1.64], 1.64 (95% CI 1.03–2.64) and 2.23 (95% CI 1.38–3.59), respectively. Furthermore, lactate was associated with higher fasting glucose among non-diabetic adults.
Conclusions Plasma lactate was strongly associated with type 2 diabetes in older adults. Plasma lactate deserves greater attention in studies of oxidative capacity and diabetes risk.
Diabetes mellitus; type 2; lactic acid; epidemiology; oxidative phosphorylation; glycolysis; insulin resistance
Deaths of participants and losses to follow-up pose challenges for defining outcomes in epidemiologic studies. The authors compared several definitions of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in terms of incidence, agreement, and risk factor associations. They used data from 14,873 participants in the community-based, multicenter, biracial Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (1987–1999). The estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was based on serum creatinine at baseline and the 3- and 9-year follow-up visits. Hospitalizations were ascertained continuously. The authors compared 4 definitions of incident CKD: 1) low eGFR (<60 mL/minute/1.73 m2); 2) low and declining (≥25%) eGFR; 3) an increase in serum creatinine (≥0.4 mg/dL) at 3- or 9-year follow-ups; and 4) CKD-related hospitalization or death. From these definitions, they identified 1,086, 677, 457, and 163 cases, respectively. There was relatively good agreement among definitions 1–3, but definition 4 identified mostly different cases. Risk factor associations were consistent across definitions for hypertension and lipids. Diabetes showed weaker associations with definition 1 (incidence rate ratio = 1.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.2, 1.7) than with definition 4 (incidence rate ratio = 6.3, confidence interval: 4.4, 8.9). Associations with gender differed in direction and magnitude across definitions. Case definition can impact relative risk estimates for CKD risk factors.
cohort studies; diagnostic techniques and procedures; incidence; kidney diseases
The minor T-allele of rs780094 in the glucokinase regulator gene (GCKR) associates with a number of metabolic traits including higher triglyceride levels and improved glycemic regulation in study populations of mostly European ancestry. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we sought to replicate these findings, examine them in a large population-based sample of African American study participants, and to investigate independent associations with other metabolic traits in order to determine if variation in GKCR contributes to their observed clustering. In addition, we examined the association of rs780094 with incident diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke over up mean follow-up times of 8, 15, and 15 years, respectively.
Research Design and Methods
Race-stratified analyses were conducted among 10,929 white and 3,960 black participants aged 45–64 at baseline assuming an additive genetic model and using linear and logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models.
Previous findings replicated among white participants in multivariable adjusted models: the T-allele of rs780094 was associated with lower fasting glucose (p = 10−7) and insulin levels (p = 10−6), lower insulin resistance (HOMA-IR, p = 10−9), less prevalent diabetes (p = 10−6), and higher CRP (p = 10−8), 2-h postprandial glucose (OGTT, p = 10−6), and triglyceride levels (p = 10−31). Moreover, the T-allele was independently associated with higher HDL cholesterol levels (p = 0.022), metabolic syndrome prevalence (p = 0.043), and lower beta-cell function measured as HOMA-B (p = 0.011). Among black participants, the T-allele was associated only with higher triglyceride levels (p = 0.004) and lower insulin levels (p = 0.002) and HOMA-IR (p = 0.013). Prospectively, the T-allele was associated with reduced incidence of diabetes (p = 10−4) among white participants, but not with incidence of CHD or stroke.
Our findings indicate rs780094 has independent associations with multiple metabolic traits as well as incident diabetes, but not incident CHD or stroke. The magnitude of association between the SNP and most traits was of lower magnitude among African American compared to white participants.