Using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) Christa Fischer-Walker and colleagues estimate that
scale-up of diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions over 5 years in 68 high
child mortality countries could avert nearly 5 million deaths.
Background
Diarrhea remains a leading cause of mortality among young children in low- and
middle-income countries. Although the evidence for individual diarrhea prevention
and treatment interventions is solid, the effect a comprehensive scale-up effort
would have on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated.
Methods and Findings
We use the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential
lives saved if two scale-up scenarios for key diarrhea interventions (oral
rehydration salts [ORS], zinc, antibiotics for dysentery, rotavirus
vaccine, vitamin A supplementation, basic water, sanitation, hygiene, and
breastfeeding) were implemented in the 68 high child mortality countries. We also
conduct a simple costing exercise to estimate cost per capita and total costs for
each scale-up scenario. Under the ambitious (feasible improvement in coverage of
all interventions) and universal (assumes near 100% coverage of all
interventions) scale-up scenarios, we demonstrate that diarrhea mortality can be
reduced by 78% and 92%, respectively. With universal coverage nearly
5 million diarrheal deaths could be averted during the 5-year scale-up period for
an additional cost of US$12.5 billion invested across 68 priority countries
for individual-level prevention and treatment interventions, and an additional
US$84.8 billion would be required for the addition of all water and
sanitation interventions.
Conclusion
Using currently available interventions, we demonstrate that with improved
coverage, diarrheal deaths can be drastically reduced. If delivery strategy
bottlenecks can be overcome and the international community can collectively
deliver on the key strategies outlined in these scenarios, we will be one step
closer to achieving success for the United Nations' Millennium Development
Goal 4 (MDG4) by 2015.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Diarrhea—passing three or more loose or liquid stools per day—kills
about 1.5 million young children every year, mainly in low- and middle-income
countries. It is the second leading cause of death in under-5-year olds and causes
nearly one in five child deaths. Diarrhea, which can lead to life-threatening
dehydration, is a common symptom of gastrointestinal infections. The viruses,
bacteria and parasites that cause diarrhea spread through contaminated food or
drinking water, and from person-to-person through poor hygiene and inadequate
sanitation (unsafe disposal of human excreta). Interventions that prevent diarrhea
include improvements in water supplies, sanitation and hygiene, the promotion of
breastfeeding, vitamin A supplementation, and vaccination against rotavirus (a
major cause of diarrhea). Treatments for diarrhea include oral rehydration salts
(ORS), which prevent and treat dehydration, and zinc supplementation, which
decreases the severity and duration of diarrhea, and antibiotics for
dysentery.
Why Was This Study Done?
Deaths from diarrhea in young children have declined markedly over the past 30
years. However, if diarrhea deaths are not reduced further, it is unlikely that
Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4; one of the goals agreed by world leaders
in 2000 to reduce poverty)—the reduction of child mortality by two-thirds of
the 1990 level by 2015—will be reached. In 2009, UNICEF and the World Health
Organization (WHO) proposed a new diarrhea reduction plan. Although the effect of
individual interventions in this plan is established, the likely effect of the
whole package on diarrhea mortality has not been estimated. Such information would
be useful for health policy planning. In this study, the researchers use the Lives
Saved Tool (LiST) to estimate the potential lives saved by
scale-up of diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions in 68 high child
mortality countries that together account for 95% of child deaths.
LiST is a child survival modeling tool that uses country-level
under-5 death rates and cause of death profiles to model the effects of changes in
health intervention package coverage on deaths among children.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers calculated 2010 (baseline) coverage values for seven prevention
interventions (breastfeeding, vitamin A supplementation, hand washing with soap,
improved sanitation, improved water source, better household water treatment, and
rotavirus vaccination) and for three treatment interventions (ORS, zinc
supplementation, and antibiotics for dysentery) from published data. They then
used LiST to estimate the effect on diarrhea deaths of scaling up
intervention coverage according to two scenarios. The “ambitious”
scenario assumed a feasible increase in the coverage of all interventions from the
baseline year to 2015 in 68 countries with high child mortality. The
“universal” scenario assumed an increase to near 100% coverage
for all the interventions. Diarrhea mortality was reduced by 78% and
92% by 2015 under the ambitious and universal scenarios, respectively. Over
the 5 years of the scale-up, the universal scenario averted nearly 5 million
deaths. The researchers also estimated that the additional costs in 2015 of
personal prevention and treatment interventions would be US$0.80 per capita
with universal coverage; the additional costs for these interventions and all
sanitation and water interventions would be US$3.24 per capita.
What Do These Findings Mean?
These findings suggest that, with currently available interventions, it should be
possible to reduce diarrhea deaths substantially at a reasonable cost. As with all
computer models, the accuracy of these findings depends on the data and
assumptions fed into the model, which does not, for example, account for the
difficulties that may be encountered in scaling up intervention coverage in hard
to reach populations. Similarly, the estimated costs associated with the two
scenarios do not include the resources required to strengthen health systems in
developing countries so that they are able to sustain high coverage levels of
diarrhea prevention and treatment interventions. Nevertheless, these findings
suggest that child mortality due to diarrhea could be significantly reduced by
2015 provided the international community acts collectively to deliver these
interventions. Most importantly, the potential 1.4 million lives saved in that
year would bring MDG4 a step closer simply by implementing existing low cost and
effective interventions.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000428.
The World Health Organization provides information on diarrhea (in several languages); its 2009 report with
UNICEF Diarrhea: why children are still dying and what can be done,
which includes the WHO/UNICEF treatment and prevention plan, can be
downloaded from the Internet
The children's charity UNICEF, which protects the rights of children
and young people around the world, provides information on water,
sanitation, and hygiene, and on diarrhea (in several languages)
The United Nations
Millennium Development Goals provides information on ongoing
world efforts to reduce child mortality
More details on LiST are available