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1.  Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis 
Wormser, David | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Kaptoge, Stephen | Wood, Angela M | Gao, Pei | Sun, Qi | Walldius, Göran | Selmer, Randi | Verschuren, WM Monique | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Engström, Gunnar | Ridker, Paul M | Njølstad, Inger | Iso, Hiroyasu | Holme, Ingar | Giampaoli, Simona | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Gaziano, J Michael | Brunner, Eric | Kee, Frank | Tosetto, Alberto | Meisinger, Christa | Brenner, Hermann | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Whincup, Peter H | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Ian | Cremer, Peter | Hofman, Albert | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Clarke, Robert | de Boer, Ian H | Jukema, J Wouter | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Lawlor, Debbie A | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Casiglia, Edoardo | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Simons, Leon A | Nietert, Paul J | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Björkelund, Cecilia | Strandberg, Timo E | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Blazer, Dan G | Meade, Tom W | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Woodward, Mark | Nissinen, Aulikki | Kromhout, Daan | Jørgensen, Torben | Tilvis, Reijo S | Guralnik, Jack M | Rosengren, Annika | Taylor, James O | Kiechl, Stefan | Dagenais, Gilles R | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Wallace, Robert B | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Visser, Marjolein | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Kitamura, Akihiko | Sundström, Johan | Wennberg, Patrik | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Daimon, Makoto | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Cooper, Jackie A | Onat, Altan | Devereux, Richard | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Dankner, Rachel | Knuiman, Matthew W | Crespo, Carlos J | Gansevoort, Ron T | Goldbourt, Uri | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Shaw, Jonathan E | Mussolino, Michael | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Fletcher, Astrid | Kuller, Lewis H | Gillum, Richard F | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Assmann, Gerd | Wald, Nicholas | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Greenland, Philip | Trevisan, Maurizio | Ulmer, Hanno | Butterworth, Adam S | Folsom, Aaron R | Davey-Smith, George | Hu, Frank B | Danesh, John | Tipping, Robert W | Ford, Charles E | Simpson, Lara M | Walldius, Göran | Jungner, Ingmar | Folsom, Aaron R | Demerath, Ellen W | Franceschini, Nora | Lutsey, Pamela L | Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B | Pitsavos, Christos | Chrysohoou, Christina | Stefanadis, Christodoulos | Shaw, Jonathan E | Atkins, Robert | Zimmet, Paul Z | Barr, Elizabeth LM | Knuiman, Matthew W | Whincup, Peter H | Wannamethee, S Goya | Morris, Richard W | Willeit, Johann | Kiechl, Stefan | Weger, Siegfried | Oberhollenzer, Friedrich | Wald, Nicholas | Ebrahim, Shah | Lawlor, Debbie A | Gallacher, John | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Yarnell, John WG | Casiglia, Edoardo | Tikhonoff, Valérie | Greenland, Philip | Shay, Christina M | Garside, Daniel B | Nietert, Paul J | Sutherland, Susan E | Bachman, David L | Keil, Julian E | de Boer, Ian H | Kizer, Jorge R | Psaty, Bruce M | Mukamal, Kenneth J | Nordestgaard, Børge G | Tybjærg-Hansen, Anne | Jensen, Gorm B | Schnohr, Peter | Giampaoli, Simona | Palmieri, Luigi | Panico, Salvatore | Pilotto, Lorenza | Vanuzzo, Diego | de la Cámara, Agustin Gómez | Simons, Leon A | Simons, Judith | McCallum, John | Friedlander, Yechiel | Gerry, F | Fowkes, R | Price, Jackie F | Lee, Amanda J | Taylor, James O | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Wallace, Robert B | Kohout, Frank J | Cornoni-Huntley, Joan C | Guralnik, Jack M | Blazer, Dan G | Guralnik, Jack M | Phillips, Caroline L | Phillips, Caroline L | Guralnik, Jack M | Khaw, Kay-Tee | Wareham, Nicholas J | Brenner, Hermann | Schöttker, Ben | Müller, Heiko | Rothenbacher, Dietrich | Wennberg, Patrik | Jansson, Jan-Håkan | Nissinen, Aulikki | Donfrancesco, Chiara | Giampaoli, Simona | Woodward, Mark | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | D'Agostino, Ralph B | Vasan, Ramachandran S | Fox, Caroline S | Pencina, Michael J | Daimon, Makoto | Oizumi, Toshihide | Kayama, Takamasa | Kato, Takeo | Bladbjerg, Else-Marie | Jørgensen, Torben | Møller, Lars | Jespersen, Jørgen | Dankner, Rachel | Chetrit, Angela | Lubin, Flora | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Welin, Lennart | Lappas, Georgios | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Welin, Lennart | Svärdsudd, Kurt | Eriksson, Henry | Lappas, Georgios | Bengtsson, Calle | Lissner, Lauren | Björkelund, Cecilia | Cremer, Peter | Nagel, Dorothea | Strandberg, Timo E | Salomaa, Veikko | Tilvis, Reijo S | Miettinen, Tatu A | Tilvis, Reijo S | Strandberg, Timo E | Kiyohara, Yutaka | Arima, Hisatomi | Doi, Yasufumi | Ninomiya, Toshiharu | Rodriguez, Beatriz | Dekker, Jacqueline M | Nijpels, Giel | Stehouwer, Coen DA | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Rimm, Eric B | Willett, Walter C | Iso, Hiroyasu | Kitamura, Akihiko | Yamagishi, Kazumasa | Noda, Hiroyuki | Goldbourt, Uri | Vartiainen, Erkki | Jousilahti, Pekka R | Harald, Kennet | Salomaa, Veikko | Kauhanen, Jussi | Salonen, Jukka T | Kurl, Sudhir | Tuomainen, Tomi-Pekka | Poppelaars, Jan L | Deeg, Dorly JH | Visser, Marjolein | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Hedblad, Bo | Nilsson, Peter | Engström, Gunnar | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | de Boer, Ian H | Shea, Steven J | Meisinger, Christa | Thorand, Barbara | Koenig, Wolfgang | Döring, Angela | Verschuren, WM Monique | Blokstra, Anneke | Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas | Wilhelmsen, Lars | Rosengren, Annika | Lappas, Georgios | Fletcher, Astrid | Nitsch, Dorothea | Kuller, Lewis H | Grandits, Greg | Tverdal, Aage | Selmer, Randi | Nystad, Wenche | Mussolino, Michael | Gillum, Richard F | Hu, Frank B | Sun, Qi | Manson, JoAnn E | Rimm, Eric B | Hankinson, Susan E | Meade, Tom W | De Stavola, Bianca Lucia | Cooper, Jackie A | Bauer, Kenneth A | Davidson, Karina W | Kirkland, Susan | Shaffer, Jonathan A | Shimbo, Daichi | Kitamura, Akihiko | Iso, Hiroyasu | Sato, Shinichi | Holme, Ingar | Selmer, Randi | Tverdal, Aage | Nystad, Wenche | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Miura, Katsuyuki | Sakurai, Masaru | Ducimetiere, Pierre | Jouven, Xavier | Bakker, Stephan JL | Gansevoort, Ron T | van der Harst, Pim | Hillege, Hans L | Crespo, Carlos J | Garcia-Palmieri, Mario R | Kee, Frank | Amouyel, Philippe | Arveiler, Dominique | Ferrières, Jean | Schulte, Helmut | Assmann, Gerd | Jukema, J Wouter | de Craen, Anton JM | Sattar, Naveed | Stott, David J | Cantin, Bernard | Lamarche, Benoît | Després, Jean-Pierre | Dagenais, Gilles R | Barrett-Connor, Elizabeth | Bergstrom, Jaclyn | Bettencourt, Richele R | Buisson, Catherine | Gudnason, Vilmundur | Aspelund, Thor | Sigurdsson, Gunnar | Thorsson, Bolli | Trevisan, Maurizio | Hofman, Albert | Ikram, M Arfan | Tiemeier, Henning | Witteman, Jacqueline CM | Tunstall-Pedoe, Hugh | Tavendale, Roger | Lowe, Gordon DO | Woodward, Mark | Devereux, Richard | Yeh, Jeun-Liang | Ali, Tauqeer | Calhoun, Darren | Ben-Shlomo, Yoav | Davey-Smith, George | Onat, Altan | Can, Günay | Nakagawa, Hidaeki | Sakurai, Masaru | Nakamura, Koshi | Morikawa, Yuko | Njølstad, Inger | Mathiesen, Ellisiv B | Løchen, Maja-Lisa | Wilsgaard, Tom | Sundström, Johan | Ingelsson, Erik | Michaëlsson, Karl | Cederholm, Tommy | Gaziano, J Michael | Buring, Julie | Ridker, Paul M | Gaziano, J Michael | Ridker, Paul M | Ulmer, Hanno | Diem, Günter | Concin, Hans | Rodeghiero, Francesco | Tosetto, Alberto | Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia | Manson, JoAnn E | Marmot, Michael | Clarke, Robert | Fletcher, Astrid | Brunner, Eric | Shipley, Martin | Kivimaki, Mika | Ridker, Paul M | Buring, Julie | Ford, Ian | Robertson, Michele | Ibañez, Alejandro Marín | Feskens, Edith | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Kromhout, Daan | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | Alexander, Myriam | Butterworth, Adam S | Angelantonio, Emanuele Di | Franco, Oscar H | Gao, Pei | Gobin, Reeta | Haycock, Philip | Kaptoge, Stephen | Seshasai, Sreenivasa R Kondapally | Lewington, Sarah | Pennells, Lisa | Rapsomaniki, Eleni | Sarwar, Nadeem | Thompson, Alexander | Thompson, Simon G | Walker, Matthew | Watson, Sarah | White, Ian R | Wood, Angela M | Wormser, David | Zhao, Xiaohui | Danesh, John
Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain.
Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual–participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies.
Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5–1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96–0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93–0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03–1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90–0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12–1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80–0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators.
Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
doi:10.1093/ije/dys086
PMCID: PMC3465767  PMID: 22825588
Height; cardiovascular disease; cancer; cause-specific mortality; epidemiological study; meta-analysis
2.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | Lotufo, Paulo A | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Maclachlan, Jennifer H | Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Masci, Joseph R | Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mayosi, Bongani M | Mazorodze, Tasara T | Mckay, Abigail Cecilia | Meaney, Peter A | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Melaku, Yohannes Adama | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | Montico, Marcella | Moore, Ami R | Mori, Rintaro | Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Murthy, Kinnari S | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Naldi, Luigi | Nangia, Vinay | Narayan, K M Venkat | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nowaseb, Vincent | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pervaiz, Aslam | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quezada, Amado D | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad Ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Razavi, Homie | Reilly, Robert Quentin | Remuzzi, Giuseppe | Richardus, Jan Hendrik | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sabin, Nsanzimana | Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Samonte, Genesis May J | Sawhney, Monika | Schneider, Ione J C | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Shivakoti, Rupak | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Simard, Edgar P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soneji, Samir | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Swaminathan, Soumya | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thomson, Alan J | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Traebert, Jefferson | Tran, Bach X | Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | Vasankari, Tommi J | Venketasubramanian, N | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vollset, Stein Emil | Waller, Stephen | Wallin, Mitchell T | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | White, Richard A | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Thomas Neil | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Vos, Theo
Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
Summary
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Findings
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Interpretation
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949
3.  PDGFRA amplification is common in pediatric and adult high-grade astrocytomas and identifies a poor prognostic group in IDH1 mutant glioblastoma 
High-grade astrocytomas (HGAs), corresponding to WHO grades III (AA) and IV (GBM), are biologically aggressive and their molecular classification is increasingly relevant to clinical management. PDGFRA amplification is common in HGAs, although its prognostic significance remains unclear. Using fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH), the most sensitive technique for detecting PDGFRA copy number gains, we determined PDGFRA amplification status in 123 pediatric and 263 adult HGAs. A range of PDGFRA FISH patterns were identified and cases were scored as non-amplified (normal and polysomy) or amplified (low-level and high-level). PDGFRA amplification was frequent in pediatric (29.3%) and adult (20.9%) tumors. Amplification was not prognostic in pediatric HGAs. In adult tumors diagnosed initially as GBM, the presence of combined PDGFRA amplification and IDH1R132H mutation was a significant independent prognostic factor (p=0.01). In HGAs, PDGFRA amplification is common and can manifest as high-level and focal or low-level amplifications. Our data indicate that the latter is more prevalent than previously reported with copy number averaging techniques. To our knowledge, this is the largest survey of PDGFRA status in adult and pediatric HGAs and suggests PDGFRA amplification increases with grade and is associated with a less favorable prognosis in IDH1 mutant de novo GBMs.
doi:10.1111/bpa.12043
PMCID: PMC3715570  PMID: 23438035
PDGFRA; astrocytoma; FISH; IDH1; isocitrate dehydrogenase 1; prognosis
4.  Xyolide, a bioactive nonenolide from an Amazonian endophytic fungus, Xylaria feejeensis 
Tetrahedron letters  2013;54(31):4058-4060.
Endophytes isolated from tropical plants represent a largely untapped reservoir of bioactive secondary metabolites. We screened a library of fungal endophyte extracts for inhibition of the plant pathogen, Pythium ultimum, and purified an active compound using bioassay-guided fractionation. A new nonenolide, (4S,7S,8S,9R)-4-O-succinyl-7,8-dihydroxy-9-heptyl-nonen-9-olide, was isolated and named xyolide. The structure was elucidated by a combination of 1D and 2D NMR methods and the absolute configuration was determined by exciton-coupled circular dichroism. The MIC of xyolide against P. ultimum was 425 µM.
doi:10.1016/j.tetlet.2013.05.093
PMCID: PMC3729479  PMID: 23913990
Natural product; Nonenolide; Fungal endophyte; Pythium ultimum
5.  Effects of leucine and its metabolite β-hydroxy-β-methylbutyrate on human skeletal muscle protein metabolism 
The Journal of Physiology  2013;591(Pt 11):2911-2923.
Maintenance of skeletal muscle mass is contingent upon the dynamic equilibrium (fasted losses–fed gains) in protein turnover. Of all nutrients, the single amino acid leucine (Leu) possesses the most marked anabolic characteristics in acting as a trigger element for the initiation of protein synthesis. While the mechanisms by which Leu is ‘sensed’ have been the subject of great scrutiny, as a branched-chain amino acid, Leu can be catabolized within muscle, thus posing the possibility that metabolites of Leu could be involved in mediating the anabolic effect(s) of Leu. Our objective was to measure muscle protein anabolism in response to Leu and its metabolite HMB. Using [1,2-13C2]Leu and [2H5]phenylalanine tracers, and GC-MS/GC-C-IRMS we studied the effect of HMB or Leu alone on MPS (by tracer incorporation into myofibrils), and for HMB we also measured muscle proteolysis (by arteriovenous (A–V) dilution). Orally consumed 3.42 g free-acid (FA-HMB) HMB (providing 2.42 g of pure HMB) exhibited rapid bioavailability in plasma and muscle and, similarly to 3.42 g Leu, stimulated muscle protein synthesis (MPS; HMB +70%vs. Leu +110%). While HMB and Leu both increased anabolic signalling (mechanistic target of rapamycin; mTOR), this was more pronounced with Leu (i.e. p70S6K1 signalling ≤90 min vs. ≤30 min for HMB). HMB consumption also attenuated muscle protein breakdown (MPB; −57%) in an insulin-independent manner. We conclude that exogenous HMB induces acute muscle anabolism (increased MPS and reduced MPB) albeit perhaps via distinct, and/or additional mechanism(s) to Leu.
doi:10.1113/jphysiol.2013.253203
PMCID: PMC3690694  PMID: 23551944
6.  Incomplete Reversibility of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate Decline Following Tenofovir Disoproxil Fumarate Exposure 
Jose, Sophie | Hamzah, Lisa | Campbell, Lucy J. | Hill, Teresa | Fisher, Martin | Leen, Clifford | Gilson, Richard | Walsh, John | Nelson, Mark | Hay, Phillip | Johnson, Margaret | Chadwick, David | Nitsch, Dorothea | Jones, Rachael | Sabin, Caroline A. | Post, Frank A. | Ainsworth, Jonathan | Anderson, Jane | Babiker, Abdel | Chadwick, David | Delpech, Valerie | Dunn, David | Fisher, Martin | Gazzard, Brian | Gilson, Richard | Gompels, Mark | Hay, Phillip | Hill, Teresa | Johnson, Margaret | Kegg, Stephen | Leen, Clifford | Nelson, Mark | Orkin, Chloe | Palfreeman, Adrian | Phillips, Andrew | Pillay, Deenan | Post, Frank | Sabin, Caroline | Sachikonye, Memory | Schwenk, Achim | Walsh, John | Hill, Teresa | Huntington, Susie | Josie, Sophie | Phillips, Andrew | Sabin, Caroline | Thornton, Alicia | Dunn, David | Glabay, Adam | Orkin, C. | Garrett, N. | Lynch, J. | Hand, J. | de Souza, C. | Fisher, M. | Perry, N. | Tilbury, S. | Churchill, D. | Gazzard, B. | Nelson, M. | Waxman, M. | Asboe, D. | Mandalia, S. | Delpech, V. | Anderson, J. | Munshi, S. | Korat, H. | Poulton, M. | Taylor, C. | Gleisner, Z. | Campbell, L. | Babiker, Abdel | Dunn, David | Glabay, Adam | Gilson, R. | Brima, N. | Williams, I. | Schwenk, A. | Ainsworth, J. | Wood, C. | Miller, S. | Johnson, M. | Youle, M. | Lampe, F. | Smith, C. | Grabowska, H. | Chaloner, C. | Puradiredja, D. | Walsh, J. | Weber, J. | Ramzan, F. | Mackie, N. | Winston, A. | Leen, C. | Wilson, A. | Gompels, M. | Allan, S. | Palfreeman, A. | Moore, A. | Chadwick, D. | Wakeman, K. | Kegg, Stephen | Main, Paul | Mitchell,  | Hunter,  | Sachikonye, Memory | Hay, Phillip | Dhillon, Mandip
The Journal of Infectious Diseases  2014;210(3):363-373.
Background. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) has been linked to renal impairment, but the extent to which this impairment is reversible is unclear. We aimed to investigate the reversibility of renal decline during TDF therapy.
Methods. Cox proportional hazards models assessed factors associated with discontinuing TDF in those with an exposure duration of >6 months. In those who discontinued TDF therapy, linear piecewise regression models estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slopes before initiation of, during, and after discontinuation of TDF therapy. Factors associated with not achieving eGFR recovery 6 months after discontinuing TDF were assessed using multivariable logistic regression.
Results. We observed declines in the eGFR during TDF exposure (mean slopes, −15.7 mL/minute/1.73 m2/year [95% confidence interval {CI}, −20.5 to −10.9] during the first 3 months and −3.1 mL/minute/1.73 m2/year [95% CI, −4.6 to −1.7] thereafter) and evidence of eGFR increases following discontinuation of TDF therapy (mean slopes, 12.5 mL/minute/1.73 m2/year [95% CI, 8.9–16.1] during the first 3 months and 0.8 mL/minute/1.73 m2/year [95% CI, .1–1.5] thereafter). Following TDF discontinuation, 38.6% of patients with a decline in the eGFR did not experience recovery. A higher eGFR at baseline, a lower eGFR after discontinuation of TDF therapy, and more-prolonged exposure to TDF were associated with an increased risk of incomplete recovery 6 months after discontinuation of TDF therapy.
Conclusions. This study shows that a decline in the eGFR during TDF therapy was not fully reversible in one third of patients and suggests that prolonged TDF exposure at a low eGFR should be avoided.
doi:10.1093/infdis/jiu107
PMCID: PMC4091582  PMID: 24585896
tenofovir; highly active antiretroviral therapy; eGFR; eGFR slopes; renal function; kidney
7.  Dietary and Flight Energetic Adaptations in a Salivary Gland Transcriptome of an Insectivorous Bat 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(1):e83512.
We hypothesized that evolution of salivary gland secretory proteome has been important in adaptation to insectivory, the most common dietary strategy among Chiroptera. A submandibular salivary gland (SMG) transcriptome was sequenced for the little brown bat, Myotis lucifugus. The likely secretory proteome of 23 genes included seven (RETNLB, PSAP, CLU, APOE, LCN2, C3, CEL) related to M. lucifugus insectivorous diet and metabolism. Six of the secretory proteins probably are endocrine, whereas one (CEL) most likely is exocrine. The encoded proteins are associated with lipid hydrolysis, regulation of lipid metabolism, lipid transport, and insulin resistance. They are capable of processing exogenous lipids for flight metabolism while foraging. Salivary carboxyl ester lipase (CEL) is thought to hydrolyze insect lipophorins, which probably are absorbed across the gastric mucosa during feeding. The other six proteins are predicted either to maintain these lipids at high blood concentrations or to facilitate transport and uptake by flight muscles. Expression of these seven genes and coordinated secretion from a single organ is novel to this insectivorous bat, and apparently has evolved through instances of gene duplication, gene recruitment, and nucleotide selection. Four of the recruited genes are single-copy in the Myotis genome, whereas three have undergone duplication(s) with two of these genes exhibiting evolutionary ‘bursts’ of duplication resulting in multiple paralogs. Evidence for episodic directional selection was found for six of seven genes, reinforcing the conclusion that the recruited genes have important roles in adaptation to insectivory and the metabolic demands of flight. Intragenic frequencies of mobile- element-like sequences differed from frequencies in the whole M. lucifugus genome. Differences among recruited genes imply separate evolutionary trajectories and that adaptation was not a single, coordinated event.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0083512
PMCID: PMC3891661  PMID: 24454705
8.  Using PhenX Measures to Identify Opportunities for Cross-Study Analysis 
Human mutation  2012;33(5):849-857.
The PhenX Toolkit provides researchers with recommended, well-established, low-burden measures suitable for human-subjects research. The database of Genotypes and Phenotypes (dbGaP) is the data repository for a variety of studies funded by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), including genome-wide association studies (GWAS). The dbGaP requires that investigators provide a data dictionary of study variables as part of the data submission process. Thus, dbGaP is a unique resource that can help investigators identify studies that share the same or similar variables. As a proof of concept, variables from 16 studies deposited in dbGaP were mapped to PhenX measures. Soon, investigators will be able to search dbGaP using PhenX variable identifiers and find comparable and related variables in these 16 studies. To enhance effective data exchange, PhenX measures, protocols, and variables were modeled in Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes (LOINC). PhenX domains and measures are also represented in the Cancer Data Standards Registry and Repository (caDSR). Associating PhenX measures with existing standards (LOINC and caDSR) and mapping to dbGaP study variables extends the utility of these measures by revealing new opportunities for cross-study analysis.
doi:10.1002/humu.22074
PMCID: PMC3780790  PMID: 22415805
Phenotype; environmental exposure; epidemiologic methods; GWAS
9.  An Elective Course on Postgraduate Residency Training 
Objective. To develop, implement, and assess the impact of an elective course for pharmacy students on postgraduate pharmacy residency training.
Design. An elective course on residency training was developed using short lectures, group discussions, and active-learning strategies, such as small-group exercises, mock match, and mock interview.
Assessment. Students were asked to self-assess their understanding and abilities related to residency training at the beginning and end of the semester based on course objectives. The median post-semester responses increased for all objectives compared to baseline (p<0.05).
Conclusion. A residency elective using a variety of teaching methods increased student knowledge and confidence in their skills regarding residency training.
doi:10.5688/ajpe769174
PMCID: PMC3508488  PMID: 23193338
active learning; elective; postgraduate education; residency; pharmacy curriculum
10.  Support and assessment for fall emergency referrals (SAFER 2) research protocol: cluster randomised trial of the clinical and cost effectiveness of new protocols for emergency ambulance paramedics to assess and refer to appropriate community-based care 
BMJ Open  2012;2(6):e002169.
Introduction
Emergency calls to ambulance services are frequent for older people who have fallen, but ambulance crews often leave patients at the scene without ongoing care. Evidence shows that when left at home with no further support older people often experience subsequent falls which result in injury and emergency-department attendances. SAFER 2 is an evaluation of a new clinical protocol which allows paramedics to assess and refer older people who have fallen, and do not need hospital care, to community-based falls services. In this protocol paper, we report methods and progress during trial implementation. SAFER 2 is recruiting patients through three ambulance services. A successful trial will provide robust evidence about the value of this new model of care, and enable ambulance services to use resources efficiently.
Design
Pragmatic cluster randomised trial.
Methods and analysis
We randomly allocated 25 participating ambulance stations (clusters) in three services to intervention or control group. Intervention paramedics received training and clinical protocols for assessing and referring older people who have fallen to community-based falls services when appropriate, while control paramedics deliver care as usual. Patients are eligible for the trial if they are aged 65 or over; resident in a participating falls service catchment area; and attended by a trial paramedic following an emergency call coded as a fall without priority symptoms. The principal outcome is the rate of further emergency contacts (or death), for any cause and for falls. Secondary outcomes include further falls, health-related quality of life, ‘fear of falling’, patient satisfaction reported by participants through postal questionnaires at 1 and 6 months, and quality and pathways of care at the index incident. We shall compare National Health Service (NHS) and patient/carer costs between intervention and control groups and estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the intervention and thus incremental cost per QALY. We shall estimate wider system effects on key-performance indicators. We shall interview 60 intervention patients, and conduct focus groups with contributing NHS staff to explore their experiences of the assessment and referral service. We shall analyse quantitative trial data by ‘treatment allocated’; and qualitative data using content analysis.
Ethics and dissemination
The Research Ethics Committee for Wales gave ethical approval and each participating centre gave NHS Research and Development approval. We shall disseminate study findings through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations.
Trial Registration: ISRCTN 60481756
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002169
PMCID: PMC3533098  PMID: 23148348
Accident & Emergency Medicine; Injury Prevention
11.  Benchtop Micromolding of Polystyrene by Soft Lithography 
Lab on a chip  2011;11(18):3089-3097.
Polystyrene (PS), a standard material for cell culture consumable labware, was molded into microstructures with high fidelity of replication by an elastomeric polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) mold. The process was a simple, benchtop method based on soft lithography using readily available materials. The key to successful replica molding by this simple procedure relies on the use of a solvent, for example, gamma-butyrolactone, which dissolves PS without swelling the PDMS mold. PS solution was added to the PDMS mold, and evaporation of solvent was accomplished by baking the mold on a hotplate. Microstructures with feature sizes as small as 3 µm and aspect ratios as large as 7 were readily molded. Prototypes of microfluidic chips made from PS were prepared by thermal bonding of a microchannel molded in PS with a flat PS substrate. The PS microfluidic chip displayed much lower adsorption and absorption of hydrophobic molecules (e.g. rhodamine B) compared to a comparable chip created from PDMS. The molded PS surface exhibited stable surface properties after plasma oxidation as assessed by contact angle measurement. The molded, oxidized PS surface remained an excellent surface for cell culture based on cell adhesion and proliferation. The micromolded PS possessed properties that were ideal for biological and bioanalytical needs, thus making it an alternative material to PDMS and suitable for building lab-on-a-chip devices by soft lithography methods.
doi:10.1039/c1lc20281b
PMCID: PMC3454527  PMID: 21811715
12.  Cell-Specific Delivery of Diverse Cargos by Bacteriophage MS2 Virus-Like Particles 
ACS nano  2011;5(7):5729-5745.
Virus-like particles (VLPs) of bacteriophage MS2 possess numerous features that make them well-suited for use in targeted delivery of therapeutic and imaging agents. MS2 VLPs can be rapidly produced in large quantities using in vivo or in vitro synthesis techniques. Their capsids can be modified in precise locations via genetic insertion or chemical conjugation, facilitating the multivalent display of targeting ligands. MS2 VLPs also self-assemble in the presence of nucleic acids to specifically encapsidate siRNA and RNA-modified cargos. Here we report the use of MS2 VLPs to selectively deliver nanoparticles, chemotherapeutic drugs, siRNA cocktails, and protein toxins to human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). MS2 VLPs modified with a peptide (SP94) that binds HCC exhibit a 104-fold higher avidity for HCC than for hepatocytes, endothelial cells, monocytes, or lymphocytes and can deliver high concentrations of encapsidated cargo to the cytosol of HCC cells. SP94-targeted VLPs loaded with doxorubicin, cisplatin, and 5-fluorouracil selectively kill the HCC cell line, Hep3B, at drug concentrations < 1 nM, while SP94-targeted VLPs that encapsidate a siRNA cocktail, which silences expression of cyclin family members, induce growth arrest and apoptosis of Hep3B at siRNA concentrations < 150 pM. Impressively, MS2 VLPs, when loaded with ricin toxin A-chain (RTA) and modified to co-display the SP94 targeting peptide and a histidine-rich fusogenic peptide (H5WYG) that promotes endosomal escape, kill nearly 100% of Hep3B cells (1 × 106 cells/mL population) at an RTA concentration of 100 fM without affecting the viability of control cells. Our results demonstrate that MS2 VLPs, due to their tolerance of multivalent peptide display and their ability to specifically encapsidate a variety of disparate cargos, induce selective cytotoxicity of cancer in vitro and represent a significant improvement in the characteristics of VLP-based delivery systems.
doi:10.1021/nn201397z
PMCID: PMC3144304  PMID: 21615170
virus-like particles; multivalent peptide display; targeted drug delivery; cancer; nanoparticle; nanocarrier
13.  Renal quality outcomes framework and eGFR: impact on secondary care 
BMC Proceedings  2012;6(Suppl 4):O44.
doi:10.1186/1753-6561-6-S4-O44
PMCID: PMC3426092
14.  The Targeted Delivery of Multicomponent Cargos to Cancer Cells via Nanoporous Particle-Supported Lipid Bilayers 
Nature Materials  2011;10(5):389-397.
Encapsulation of drugs within nanocarriers that selectively target malignant cells promises to mitigate side effects of conventional chemotherapy and to enable delivery of the unique drug combinations needed for personalized medicine. To realize this potential, however, targeted nanocarriers must simultaneously overcome multiple challenges, including specificity, stability, and a high capacity for disparate cargos. Here we report porous nanoparticle-supported lipid bilayers (protocells) that synergistically combine properties of liposomes and nanoporous particles. Protocells modified with a targeting peptide that binds to human hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) exhibit a 10,000-fold greater affinity for HCC than for hepatocytes, endothelial cells, and immune cells. Furthermore, protocells can be loaded with combinations of therapeutic (drugs, siRNA, and toxins) and diagnostic (quantum dots) agents and modified to promote endosomal escape and nuclear accumulation of selected cargos. The enormous capacity of the high-surface-area nanoporous core combined with the enhanced targeting efficacy enabled by the fluid supported lipid bilayer allow a single protocell loaded with a drug cocktail to kill a drug-resistant HCC cell, representing a 106-fold improvement over comparable liposomes.
doi:10.1038/nmat2992
PMCID: PMC3287066  PMID: 21499315
15.  The cost effectiveness of NHS physiotherapy support for occupational health (OH) services 
Background
Musculoskeletal pain is detrimental to quality of life (QOL) and disruptive to activities of daily living. It also places a major economic burden on healthcare systems and wider society. In 2006, the Welsh Assembly Government (WAG) established a three tiered self-referral Occupational Health Physiotherapy Pilot Project (OHPPP) comprising: 1.) telephone advice and triage, 2.) face-to-face physiotherapy assessment and treatment if required, and 3.) workplace assessment and a return-to-work facilitation package as appropriate. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of the pilot service.
Methods
A pragmatic cohort study was undertaken, with all OHPPP service users between September 2008 and February 2009 being invited to participate. Participants were assessed on clinical status, yellow flags, sickness absence and work performance at baseline, after treatment and at 3 month follow up. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated from both top-down and bottom-up perspectives and cost per Quality Adjusted Life Year (cost/QALY) was calculated. The cost-effectiveness analysis assessed the increase in service cost that would be necessary before the cost-effectiveness of the service was compromised.
Results
A total of 515 patients completed questionnaires at baseline. Of these, 486 were referred for face to face assessment with a physiotherapist and were included in the analysis for the current study. 264 (54.3%) and 199 (40.9%) were retained at end of treatment and 3 month follow up respectively. An improvement was observed at follow up in all the clinical outcomes assessed, as well as a reduction in healthcare resource usage and sickness absence, and improvement in self-reported work performance. Multivariate regression indicated that baseline and current physical health were associated with work-related outcomes at follow up. The costs of the service were £194-£360 per service user depending on the method used, and the health gains contributed to a cost/QALY of £1386-£7760, which would represent value for money according to current UK thresholds. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the service would remain cost effective until the service costs were increased to 160% per user.
Conclusions
This pragmatic evaluation of the OHPPP indicated that it was likely to be feasible in terms of service usage and could potentially be cost effective in terms of QALYs. Further, the study confirmed that improving physical health status for musculoskeletal pain patients is important in reducing problems with work capacity and related costs. This study suggests that this type of service could be potentially be useful in reducing the burden of pain and should be further investigated, ideally via randomised controlled trials assessing effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.
doi:10.1186/1471-2474-13-29
PMCID: PMC3382429  PMID: 22361319
Musculoskeletal conditions; Quality of life; Cost-effectiveness analysis; Physical therapy; Occupational health
16.  Support and Assessment for Fall Emergency Referrals (SAFER 1) trial protocol. Computerised on-scene decision support for emergency ambulance staff to assess and plan care for older people who have fallen: evaluation of costs and benefits using a pragmatic cluster randomised trial 
Background
Many emergency ambulance calls are for older people who have fallen. As half of them are left at home, a community-based response may often be more appropriate than hospital attendance. The SAFER 1 trial will assess the costs and benefits of a new healthcare technology - hand-held computers with computerised clinical decision support (CCDS) software - to help paramedics decide who needs hospital attendance, and who can be safely left at home with referral to community falls services.
Methods/Design
Pragmatic cluster randomised trial with a qualitative component. We shall allocate 72 paramedics ('clusters') at random between receiving the intervention and a control group delivering care as usual, of whom we expect 60 to complete the trial.
Patients are eligible if they are aged 65 or older, live in the study area but not in residential care, and are attended by a study paramedic following an emergency call for a fall. Seven to 10 days after the index fall we shall offer patients the opportunity to opt out of further follow up. Continuing participants will receive questionnaires after one and 6 months, and we shall monitor their routine clinical data for 6 months. We shall interview 20 of these patients in depth. We shall conduct focus groups or semi-structured interviews with paramedics and other stakeholders.
The primary outcome is the interval to the first subsequent reported fall (or death). We shall analyse this and other measures of outcome, process and cost by 'intention to treat'. We shall analyse qualitative data thematically.
Discussion
Since the SAFER 1 trial received funding in August 2006, implementation has come to terms with ambulance service reorganisation and a new national electronic patient record in England. In response to these hurdles the research team has adapted the research design, including aspects of the intervention, to meet the needs of the ambulance services.
In conclusion this complex emergency care trial will provide rigorous evidence on the clinical and cost effectiveness of CCDS for paramedics in the care of older people who have fallen.
Trial Registration
ISRCTN10538608
doi:10.1186/1471-227X-10-2
PMCID: PMC2824628  PMID: 20102616
17.  Truncating and missense BMPR2 mutations differentially affect the severity of heritable pulmonary arterial hypertension 
Respiratory Research  2009;10(1):87.
Background
Autosomal dominant inheritance of germline mutations in the bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2 (BMPR2) gene are a major risk factor for pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). While previous studies demonstrated a difference in severity between BMPR2 mutation carriers and noncarriers, it is likely disease severity is not equal among BMPR2 mutations. We hypothesized that patients with missense BMPR2 mutations have more severe disease than those with truncating mutations.
Methods
Testing for BMPR2 mutations was performed in 169 patients with PAH (125 with a family history of PAH and 44 with sporadic disease). Of the 106 patients with a detectable BMPR2 mutation, lymphocytes were available in 96 to functionally assess the nonsense-mediated decay pathway of RNA surveillance. Phenotypic characteristics were compared between BMPR2 mutation carriers and noncarriers, as well as between those carriers with a missense versus truncating mutation.
Results
While there was a statistically significant difference in age at diagnosis between carriers and noncarriers, subgroup analysis revealed this to be the case only for females. Among carriers, there was no difference in age at diagnosis, death, or survival according to exonic location of the BMPR2 mutation. However, patients with missense mutations had statistically significant younger ages at diagnosis and death, as well as shorter survival from diagnosis to death or lung transplantation than those with truncating mutations. Consistent with this data, the majority of missense mutations were penetrant prior to age 36 years, while the majority of truncating mutations were penetrant after age 36 years.
Conclusion
In this cohort, BMPR2 mutation carriers have more severe PAH disease than noncarriers, but this is only the case for females. Among carriers, patients with missense mutations that escape nonsense-mediated decay have more severe disease than those with truncating mutations. These findings suggest that treatment and prevention strategies directed specifically at BMPR2 pathway defects may need to vary according to the type of mutation.
doi:10.1186/1465-9921-10-87
PMCID: PMC2762975  PMID: 19785764
18.  Structure of the response regulator VicR DNA-binding domain 
The structure of the DNA-binding domain of the response regulator VicR from E. faecalis has been solved at 1.9 Å resolution. It is very similar to the related domains from PhoB and OmpR, but differs in two loops that may affect transcription activation or DNA–protein interactions.
The response regulator VicR from the Gram-positive bacterium Enterococcus faecalis forms part of the two-component signal transduction system of the YycFG subfamily. The structure of the DNA-binding domain of VicR, VicRc, has been solved and belongs to the winged helix–turn–helix family. It is very similar to the DNA-binding domains of Escherichia coli PhoB and OmpR, despite low sequence similarity, but differs in two important loops. The α-loop, which links the two helices of the helix–turn–helix motif, is similar to that of PhoB, where it has been implicated in contacting the σ subunit of RNA polymerase, but differs from that of OmpR. Conversely, the loop following the helix–turn–helix motif is similar to that of OmpR and differs from that of PhoB. YycF/VicR, PhoB and Bacillus subtilis PhoP regulators all recognize almost identical DNA sequences and although there is currently no experimental evidence linking this loop with the DNA, the structure is consistent with possible involvement in selective DNA recognition or binding.
doi:10.1107/S0907444906043435
PMCID: PMC2483477  PMID: 17242520
response regulator; DNA-binding domain; two-component system; winged helix–turn–helix
20.  Induction of monocyte expression of tumor necrosis factor alpha by the 30-kD alpha antigen of Mycobacterium tuberculosis and synergism with fibronectin. 
Journal of Clinical Investigation  1996;98(5):1261-1268.
Native 30-kD antigen, also known as alpha antigen, is a fibronectin-binding protein that is secreted by live Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This antigen may play an important biological role in the host-parasite interaction since it elicits delayed type hypersensitivity response and protective immunity in vivo and T lymphocyte blastogenesis and IFN-gamma production in vitro. In the present study, we show that, TNF-alpha protein is produced in monocyte culture supernatants in response to 30-kD antigen and the level is as high as that to purified protein derivative of M. tuberculosis. This stimulatory effect was not due to contamination with either bacterial lipopolysaccharide or mycobacterial lipoarabinomannan. The preincubation of monocytes with plasma fibronectin significantly enhanced the release of TNF-alpha into the culture supernatants in response to 30-kD antigen. This effect was blocked by polygonal antibody to plasma fibronectin. In contrast, the monocytic cell line U937 failed to release TNF-alpha protein in the culture supernatants in response to 30-kD antigen with or without preincubation with plasma fibronectin. To determine whether this observation was due to differential binding of the 30-kD to fibronectin on these cells, a cell based ELISA was used. Pretreatment of monocytes with fibronectin enhanced their binding of the 30-kD antigen. U937 cells bound the 30-kD antigen weakly with or without fibronectin pretreatment. These results indicate that 30-kD antigen which is a known secretary antigen of M. tuberculosis is a stimulus for human monocytes to express TNF-alpha and that stimulatory effect may be mediated through plasma fibronectin.
PMCID: PMC507549  PMID: 8787690
21.  REPOPULATION OF POSTMITOTIC NUCLEOLI BY PREFORMED RNA  
The Journal of Cell Biology  1973;58(1):54-63.
The reconstruction of the nucleolus after mitosis was analyzed by electron microscopy in cultured mammalian (L929) cells in which nucleolar RNA synthesis was inhibited for a 3 h period either after or before mitosis. When synchronized mitotic cells were plated into a concentration of actinomycin D sufficient to block nucleolar RNA synthesis preferentially, nucleoli were formed at telophase as usual. 3 h after mitosis, these nucleoli had fibrillar and particulate components and possessed the segregated appearance characteristic of nucleoli of actinomycin D-treated cells. Cells in which actinomycin D was present for the last 3 h preceding mitosis did not form nucleoli by 3 h after mitosis though small fibrillar prenucleolar bodies were detectable at this time. These bodies subsequently grew in size and eventually acquired a particulate component. It took about a full cell cycle before nucleoli of these cells were completely normal in appearance. Thus, nucleolar RNA synthesis after mitosis is not necessary for organization of nucleoli after mitosis. However, inhibition of nucleolar RNA synthesis before mitosis renders the cell incapable of forming nucleoli immediately after mitosis. If cells are permitted to resume RNA synthesis after mitosis, they eventually regain nucleoli of normal morphology.
PMCID: PMC2109037  PMID: 4726308
22.  Achievement Place: development of the elected manager system1 
A series of experiments was carried out to compare several administrative systems at Achievement Place, a family style behavior modification program for pre-delinquent boys. One aspect of the motivation system at Achievement Place was the token economy in which the youths could earn or lose points that could be exchanged for privileges. Several arrangements for assigning routine tasks and for providing token consequences for task performance were compared for their effectiveness in accomplishing the tasks and for their preference by the boys. The independent variables studied included: (1) individually assigned tasks versus group assigned tasks; (2) consequences for individual performance versus consequences for group performance; (3) a peer managership that could be earned by the highest bidder versus a peer managership that could be determined democratically by the peers. The results suggested that among those systems studied the system that best met the criteria of effectiveness and preference involved a democratically elected peer manager who had the authority both to give and to take away points for his peers' performances.
doi:10.1901/jaba.1973.6-541
PMCID: PMC1310873  PMID: 16795439
23.  DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF NUCLEOLI OF TWO ESTABLISHED CELL LINES 
The Journal of Cell Biology  1971;49(3):803-815.
Nucleoli of cultured cells of the established lines KB and L were found to possess a distinctive fine structural organization. The major portion of the nucleolar volume was composed of compact, particulate material. Spheroidal fibrillar zones about 0.4 µ in diameter occurred within the particulate mass. These fibrillar zones had a central light area and a denser rim. Toyocamycin treatment, which sharply inhibited the appearance of newly synthesized RNA in the cytoplasm, caused the gradual disappearance of the fibrillar material from nucleoli. Actinomycin D treatment, which inhibited virtually all RNA synthesis, caused varying types of segregation of nucleolar components. The morphology of nucleoli of KB and L cells and the reorganization of these nucleoli in response to drugs appear to be different from those of nucleoli of freshly initiated Chinese hamster and mouse cell lines.
PMCID: PMC2108493  PMID: 5104725
24.  NUCLEOLI OF DIPLOID CELL STRAINS  
The Journal of Cell Biology  1971;49(3):785-802.
Nucleoli of cultured Chinese hamster or mouse cells in early passages had a loosely reticular substructure. Within the reticulum small, irregularly shaped, light fibrillar zones occurred which were contiguous with denser fibrillar zones. These denser zones appeared to be connected in some places to the particulate material which composed the mass of the nucleolus. Generally, electron-transparent spaces separated the particulate zones from the fibrillar areas. Treatment with toyocamycin, an agent which is reported to cause a blockage in the processing of ribosomal RNA, greatly inhibited the accumulation of newly synthesized RNA in the cytoplasm, as monitored by radioautography. Toyocamycin treatment caused the gradual disappearance of the granules from the particulate region of the nucleoli, and resulted ultimately in the nucleoli appearing homogeneously fibrillar. Actinomycin D treatment, which inhibited virtually all RNA synthesis, caused a segregation, and finally a disaggregation, of nucleolar components.
PMCID: PMC2108481  PMID: 5104724
25.  Achievement Place: modification of the behaviors of pre-delinquent boys within a token economy123 
The “pre-delinquent” behaviors of six boys at Achievement Place, a community based family style behavior modification center for delinquents, were modified using token (points) reinforcement procedures. In Exp. I, point losses contingent on each minute late were effective in producing promptness at the evening meal. During the reversal phase, threats (which were not backed up with point losses) to reinstate the point consequences initially improved promptness but the last two of five threats were ineffective. In Exp. II, point consequences effectively maintained the boys' room-cleaning behavior and, during a fading condition where the percentage of days when the contingency occurred was decreased, the point consequences remained effective for over six months, even when they were delivered on only 8% of the days. Experiment III showed that the boys saved considerable amounts of money when point consequences were available for deposits but saved little money when no points were available. Also, when points were given only for deposits that occurred on specific days the boys deposited their money almost exclusively on those days. In Exp. IV, point consequences contingent on the number of correct answers on a news quiz produced the greatest increase in the percentage of boys who watched the news and, to a lesser extent, increased the percentage of correct answers for the boys who watched the news. The results indicate that “pre-delinquent” behaviors are amenable to modification procedures and that a token reinforcement system provides a practical means of modifying these behaviors.
doi:10.1901/jaba.1971.4-45
PMCID: PMC1310667  PMID: 16795279

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