Background
Epidemiologic studies of BMI in relation to mortality commonly exclude persons with health conditions and/or a history of smoking in order to prevent bias resulting from illness-related weight loss (“reverse causation”). Analysis of BMI from an earlier time period may minimize reverse causation without requiring exclusion of participants based on disease or smoking history.
Methods
We prospectively examined BMI based on technician measurements of weight and height from 10 years prior to start of follow-up in relation to subsequent mortality in a cohort of 50,186 women who were 40 to 93 years old at baseline in 1987–1989. Deaths were ascertained through the U.S. National Death Index. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratios of mortality, adjusted for age, education, race/ethnicity, income, menopausal hormone use, smoking, and physical activity.
Results
During 10 years of follow-up through 1997, 5,201 women died. Overall, we observed a J-shaped association between BMI and mortality, with increased risk for women who were underweight, overweight, or obese. The hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of mortality for BMI categories of <18.5, 18.5–20.9, 21.0–23.4 (reference), 23.5–24.9, 25.0–27.4, 27.5–29.9, 30.0–34.9, and 35.0+ kg/m2 were 1.43 (1.19, 1.72), 1.07 (0.98, 1.17), 1.0 (reference), 1.10 (1.00, 1.20), 1.20 (1.11, 1.31), 1.23 (1.11, 1.37), 1.60 (1.44, 1.77), and 1.92 (1.64, 2.24). There was little evidence that preexisting conditions (heart disease, diabetes, and/or cancer) or smoking history modified the past BMI and mortality relation (p=0.54 and 0.76).
Conclusions
In this large cohort of women, BMI based on technician measurements of weight and height from 10 years prior to baseline showed increased risk for mortality across the range of overweight and obesity, regardless of disease and smoking history. Observed associations between overweight, obesity, and mortality in healthy individuals may also apply to persons with a history of disease or smoking.