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1.  Don’t turn your back on the symptoms of psychosis: a proof-of-principle, quasi-experimental public health trial to reduce the duration of untreated psychosis in Birmingham, UK 
BMC Psychiatry  2013;13:67.
Background
Reducing the duration of untreated psychosis (DUP) is an aspiration of international guidelines for first episode psychosis; however, public health initiatives have met with mixed results. Systematic reviews suggest that greater focus on the sources of delay within care pathways, (which will vary between healthcare settings) is needed to achieve sustainable reductions in DUP (BJP 198: 256-263; 2011).
Methods/Design
A quasi-experimental trial, comparing a targeted intervention area with a ‘detection as usual’ area in the same city. A proof-of–principle trial, no a priori assumptions are made regarding effect size; key outcome will be an estimate of the potential effect size for a definitive trial. DUP and number of new cases will be collected over an 18-month period in target and control areas and compared; historical data on DUP collected in both areas over the previous three years, will serve as a benchmark. The intervention will focus on reducing two significant DUP component delays within the overall care pathway: delays within the mental health service and help-seeking delay.
Discussion
This pragmatic trial will be the first to target known delays within the care pathway for those with a first episode of psychosis. If successful, this will provide a generalizable methodology that can be implemented in a variety of healthcare contexts with differing sources of delay.
Trial registration
http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN45058713
doi:10.1186/1471-244X-13-67
PMCID: PMC3599688  PMID: 23432935
Public mental health campaign; First-episode psychosis; Early detection; Duration of untreated psychosis; Youth mental health
2.  A randomised controlled non-inferiority trial of primary care-based facilitated access to an alcohol reduction website (EFAR-FVG): the study protocol 
BMJ Open  2013;3(2):e002304.
Introduction
There is a strong body of evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of brief interventions by primary care professionals for risky drinkers. However, implementation levels remain low because of time constraints and other factors. Facilitated access to an alcohol reduction website offers primary care professionals a time-saving alternative to standard face-to-face intervention, but it is not known whether it is as effective.
Methods and analysis
A randomised controlled non-inferiority trial for risky drinkers comparing facilitated access to a dedicated website with standard face-to-face brief intervention to be conducted in primary care settings in the Region of Friuli Giulia Venezia, Italy. Adult patients will be given a leaflet inviting them to log on to a website to complete the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT-C) alcohol screening questionnaire. Screen positives will be requested to complete an online trial module including consent, baseline assessment and randomisation to either standard intervention by the practitioner or facilitated access to an alcohol reduction website. Follow-up assessment of risky drinking will be undertaken online at 1 month, 3 months and 1 year using the full AUDIT questionnaire. Proportions of risky drinkers in each group will be calculated and non-inferiority assessed against a specified margin of 10%. Assuming a reduction of 30% of risky drinkers receiving standard intervention, 1000 patients will be required to give 90% power to reject the null hypothesis.
Ethics and dissemination
The protocol was approved by the Isontina Independent Local Ethics Committee on 14 June 2012. The findings of the trial will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journals, national and international conference presentations and public events involving the local administrations of the towns where the trial participants are resident.
Registration details
Trial registration number NCT: 01638338.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002304
PMCID: PMC3586130  PMID: 23408073
Health Promotion
3.  Can we update the Summary Hospital Mortality Index (SHMI) to make a useful measure of the quality of hospital care? An observational study 
BMJ Open  2013;3(1):e002018.
Objective
To advance methods for the estimation of hospital performance based upon mortality ratios.
Design
Observational study estimating trust performance in a year derived according to comparative standards from a 3-year period, accounting for patient-level case-mix and overdispersion (unexplained variability).
Participants
23 363 630 admissions to the English National Health Service (NHS) by NHS Trust.
Main outcome measures
Number of SDs (QUality and Outcomes Research Unit Measure, QUORUM banding) and comparative odds of hospital mortality difference from mean performance by trust compared for 2010/2011, 2008/2009 and 2009/2010, accounting for patient-level case-mix.
Results
The model was highly predictive of mortality (C statistic=0.93), and well calibrated by risk stratum. There was substantial overdispersion. No trusts were more than 3 SDs above the mean, and only one trust was more than 2 SDs above the mean for 2010/2011.
Conclusions
QUORUM is highly predictive of patient mortality in hospital or up to 30 days after admission. However, like the Summary Hospital Mortality Indicator (SHMI), QUORUM is subjected to considerable remaining legitimate but unexplained variation. It is unlikely that measures like QUORUM and SHMI will be useful beyond identifying a very small number of trusts as potential outliers.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002018
PMCID: PMC3563139  PMID: 23370014
Public Health; Education & Training (See Medical Education & Training); Epidemiology
4.  Variation in Recorded Child Maltreatment Concerns in UK Primary Care Records: A Cohort Study Using The Health Improvement Network (THIN) Database 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(11):e49808.
Objectives
To determine variation over time and between practices in recording of concerns related to abuse and neglect (maltreatment) in children's primary care records.
Design
Retrospective cohort study using a United Kingdom representative primary care database.
Setting
448 General Practices.
Participants
In total 1,548, 972 children (<18 y) registered between 1995 and 2010.
Main Outcome Measures
Change in annual incidence of one or more maltreatment-related codes per child year of registration. Variation between general practices measured as the proportion of registered children with one or more maltreatment-related codes during 3 years (2008–2010).
Results
From 1995–2010, annual incidence rates of any coded maltreatment-related concerns rose by 10.8% each year (95% confidence interval 10.5, 11.2; adjusted for sex, age and deprivation). In 2010 the rate was 9.5 per 1000 child years (95%CI: 9.3, 9.8), equivalent to a prevalence of 0.8% of all registered children in 2010. Across all practices, the median prevalence of children with any maltreatment-related codes in three years (2008 to 2010) was 0.9% (range 0%–13.4%; 11 practices (2.5%) had zero children with relevant codes in the same period). Once we accounted for sex, age, and deprivation, the prevalence for each practice was within two standard errors of the grand mean.
Conclusions
General Practitioners (GPs) are far from disengaged from safeguarding children; they are consistently and increasingly recording maltreatment concerns. As these results are likely to underestimate the burden of maltreatment known to primary care, there is much scope for increasing recording in primary care records with implications for resources to respond to concerns about maltreatment. Interventions and policies should build on this evidence that the average GP in the UK is engaged in child safeguarding activity.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0049808
PMCID: PMC3509120  PMID: 23209604
5.  Cardiovascular Outcomes in the AFFIRM Trial: An Assessment of Individual Antiarrhythmic Drug Therapies compared to Rate Control Using Propensity Score Matched Analyses 
Objective
The impact of individual antiarrhythmic drugs (AADs) on mortality and hospitalization in atrial fibrillation (AF) was evaluated
Background
Cardiovascular (CV) outcomes in AF patients on pharmacologic rhythm control therapy have not been compared with rate control therapy based on AAD selection.
Methods
We compared CV outcomes in the AFFIRM trial in subgroups defined by the initial AAD selected with propensity score matched subgroups from the rate arm (Rate).
Results
729 amiodarone patients, 606 sotalol patients & 268 class 1C patients were matched. The composite outcome of mortality or CV hospitalizations (CVH) showed better outcomes with Rate compared to amiodarone (Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.18, 95% confidence intervals {CI}:1.03–1.36, p=0.02), sotalol (HR=1.32, CI: 1.13–1.54, p<0.001) and class 1C (HR=1.22, CI: 0.97–1.56, p=0.10). There was a non-significant increase in mortality with amiodarone (HR=1.20, CI: 0.94–1.53, p=0.15) with the risk of non-CV death, being significantly higher with amiodarone versus Rate. (HR=1.11, CI: 1.01–1.24, p=0.04). First CVH event rates at 3 years were 47% for amiodarone, 50% for sotalol and 44% for class 1C versus 40%, 40% and 36% respectively for Rate (amiodarone HR=1.20,CI:1.03–1.40,p=0.02, sotalol HR=1.364, CI:1.16–1.611, p<0.001, class 1C HR=1.24,CI:0.96–1.60,p=0.09). Time to CVH with intensive care unit stay (ICUH) or death was shorter with amiodarone (HR=1.22, CI: 1.02–1.46, p=0.03).
Conclusions
In AFFIRM, composite mortality and CVH outcomes differed for Rate and AADs due to differences in CVH; CVH event rates during follow-up were high for all cohorts, but they were higher for all groups on AADs.Death, ICUH and non-CV death were more frequent with amiodarone.
doi:10.1016/j.jacc.2011.07.036
PMCID: PMC3290399  PMID: 22032709
Atrial Fibrillation; Outcomes Research; Antiarrhythmic Drugs; Clinical Trials; Cardiovascular Outcomes; Cardiovascular Hospitalizations
6.  Trends in consultant clinical activity and the effect of the 2003 contract change: retrospective analysis of secondary data 
Objectives
To explore trends in the clinical activity of hospital specialists in English National Health Service (NHS) hospitals, and test the effect of contract reform.
Design
Retrospective secondary analysis of hospital episode statistics, describing trends and testing for a contract effect using multilevel interrupted time series analysis.
Setting
Ten surgical and medical specialties in English NHS hospitals from 1999 to 2009.
Participants
Hospital consultants on full time or maximum part-time English NHS hospitals.
Intervention
A new contract offered to NHS consultants in October 2003, with higher pay alongside job planning and appraisal.
Main outcome measures
Inpatient finished consultant episodes (FCEs) per consultant per month, with and without accounting for case-mix differences.
Results
In most specialties there was a statistically significant downward trend in FCEs per consultant per month. On average in the surgical specialties, FCEs reduced by 0.14 per month (95% CI −0.16 to −0.11) and in medicine there was a smaller reduction of 0.08 FCEs per month (95% CI −0.1 to −0.06). NHS patients symptoms have increased in severity over time, and the downward trend is reduced after case-mix-adjustment, and reversed in general and geriatric medicine. The effect of the contract on clinical activity was minimal. In five specialties there was no statistically significant effect, but in five specialties there was a statistically significant negative effect.
Conclusions
Consultant clinical activity, as measured by FCEs per month, has shown a general downward trend from 1999 to 2009. The consultant contract was not associated with an increase in consultant clinical activity rates.
doi:10.1258/jrsm.2012.120130
PMCID: PMC3526852  PMID: 23239240
7.  Designing an intervention to help people with colorectal adenomas reduce their intake of red and processed meat and increase their levels of physical activity: a qualitative study 
BMC Cancer  2012;12:255.
Background
Most cases of colorectal cancer (CRC) arise from adenomatous polyps and malignant potential is greatest in high risk adenomas. There is convincing observational evidence that red and processed meat increase the risk of CRC and that higher levels of physical activity reduce the risk. However, no definitive randomised trial has demonstrated the benefit of behaviour change on reducing polyp recurrence and no consistent advice is currently offered to minimise patient risk. This qualitative study aimed to assess patients’ preferences for dietary and physical activity interventions and ensure their appropriate and acceptable delivery to inform a feasibility trial.
Methods
Patients aged 60–74 included in the National Health Service Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NHSBCSP) were selected from a patient tracking database. After a positive faecal occult blood test (FOBt), all had been diagnosed with an intermediate or high risk adenoma (I/HRA) at colonoscopy between April 2008 and April 2010. Interested patients and their partners were invited to attend a focus group or interview in July 2010. A topic guide, informed by the objectives of the study, was used. A thematic analysis was conducted in which transcripts were examined to ensure that all occurrences of each theme had been accounted for and compared.
Results
Two main themes emerged from the focus groups: a) experiences of having polyps and b) changing behaviour. Participants had not associated polyp removal with colorectal cancer and most did not remember being given any information or advice relating to this at the time. Heterogeneity of existing diet and physical activity levels was noted. There was a lack of readiness to change behaviour in many people in the target population.
Conclusions
This study has confirmed and amplified recently published factors involved in developing interventions to change dietary and physical activity behaviour in this population. The need to tailor the intervention to individuals, the lack of knowledge about the aetiology of colon cancer and the lack of motivation to change behaviour are critical factors.
Trial registration
Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN03320951
doi:10.1186/1471-2407-12-255
PMCID: PMC3532076  PMID: 22708848
Adenomatous polyps; Feasibility studies; Prevention & control; Health behaviour; Attitude to health; Qualitative research; Colorectal neoplasms
8.  Population health status of South Asian and African-Caribbean communities in the United Kingdom 
Background
Population health status scores are routinely used to inform economic evaluation and evaluate the impact of disease and/or treatment on health. It is unclear whether the health status in black and minority ethnic groups are comparable to these population health status data. The aim of this study was to evaluate health-status in South Asian and African-Caribbean populations.
Methods
Cross-sectional study recruiting participants aged ≥ 45 years (September 2006 to July 2009) from 20 primary care centres in Birmingham, United Kingdom.10,902 eligible subjects were invited, 5,408 participated (49.6%). 5,354 participants had complete data (49.1%) (3442 South Asian and 1912 African-Caribbean). Health status was assessed by interview using the EuroQoL EQ-5D.
Results
The mean EQ-5D score in South Asian participants was 0.91 (standard deviation (SD) 0.18), median score 1 (interquartile range (IQR) 0.848 to 1) and in African-Caribbean participants the mean score was 0.92 (SD 0.18), median 1 (IQR 1 to 1). Compared with normative data from the UK general population, substantially fewer African-Caribbean and South Asian participants reported problems with mobility, usual activities, pain and anxiety when stratified by age resulting in higher average health status estimates than those from the UK population. Multivariable modelling showed that decreased health-related quality of life (HRQL) was associated with increased age, female gender and increased body mass index. A medical history of depression, stroke/transient ischemic attack, heart failure and arthritis were associated with substantial reductions in HRQL.
Conclusions
The reported HRQL of these minority ethnic groups was substantially higher than anticipated compared to UK normative data. Participants with chronic disease experienced significant reductions in HRQL and should be a target for health intervention.
doi:10.1186/1472-6963-12-101
PMCID: PMC3349523  PMID: 22533538
Health status; EQ-5D; South Asian; African-Caribbean
9.  Cost-effective undergraduate medical education? 
doi:10.1258/jrsm.2008.080353
PMCID: PMC2642867  PMID: 19208863
11.  Prevalence of Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation in Minority Ethnic Subjects: The Ethnic-Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study (E-ECHOES) 
PLoS ONE  2011;6(11):e26710.
Background
Limited data exists on the prevalence of heart failure amongst minority groups in the UK. To document the community prevalence and severity of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation, amongst the South Asian and Black African -Caribbean groups in the UK.
Methods and Results
We conducted a cross-sectional study recruiting from September 2006 to July 2009 from 20 primary care centres in Birmingham, UK. 10,902 eligible subjects invited, 5,408 participated (49.6%) and 5,354 had complete data (49.1%). Subjects had median age 58.2 years (interquartile range 51.0 to 70.0), and 2544 (47.5%) were male. Of these, 1933 (36.3%) had BMI>30 kg/m2, 1,563 (29.2%) had diabetes, 2676 (50.0%) had hypertension, 307 (5.7%) had a history of myocardial infarction, and 104 (1.9%) had history of arrhythmia. Overall, 59 (1.1%) had an Ejection Fraction<40%, and of these 40 (0.75%) were NYHA class ≥2; 51 subjects (0.95%) had atrial fibrillation. Of the remaining 19 patients with an EF<40%, only 4 patients were treated with furosemide. A further 54 subjects had heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.
Conclusions
This is the largest study of the prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, heart failure and atrial fibrillation in under-researched minority communities in the UK. The prevalence of heart failure in these minority communities appears comparable to that of the general population but less than anticipated given the high rates of cardiovascular disease in these groups. Heart failure continues to be a major cause of morbidity in all ethnic groups and preventive strategies need to be identified and implemented.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0026710
PMCID: PMC3217919  PMID: 22110591
12.  Physiotherapy rehabilitation for whiplash associated disorder II: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials 
BMJ Open  2011;1(2):e000265.
Objective
To evaluate effectiveness of physiotherapy management in patients experiencing whiplash associated disorder II, on clinically relevant outcomes in the short and longer term.
Design
Systematic review and meta-analysis. Two reviewers independently searched information sources, assessed studies for inclusion, evaluated risk of bias and extracted data. A third reviewer mediated disagreement. Assessment of risk of bias was tabulated across included trials. Quantitative synthesis was conducted on comparable outcomes across trials with similar interventions. Meta-analyses compared effect sizes, with random effects as primary analyses.
Data sources
Predefined terms were employed to search electronic databases. Additional studies were identified from key journals, reference lists, authors and experts.
Eligibility criteria for selecting studies
Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published in English before 31 December 2010 evaluating physiotherapy management of patients (>16 years), experiencing whiplash associated disorder II. Any physiotherapy intervention was included, when compared with other types of management, placebo/sham, or no intervention. Measurements reported on ≥1 outcome from the domains within the international classification of function, disability and health, were included.
Results
21 RCTs (2126 participants, 9 countries) were included. Interventions were categorised as active physiotherapy or a specific physiotherapy intervention. 20/21 trials were evaluated as high risk of bias and one as unclear. 1395 participants were incorporated in the meta-analyses on 12 trials. In evaluating short term outcome in the acute/sub-acute stage, there was some evidence that active physiotherapy intervention reduces pain and improves range of movement, and that a specific physiotherapy intervention may reduce pain. However, moderate/considerable heterogeneity suggested that treatments may differ in nature or effect in different trial patients. Differences between participants, interventions and trial designs limited potential meta-analyses.
Conclusions
Inconclusive evidence exists for the effectiveness of physiotherapy management for whiplash associated disorder II. There is potential benefit for improving range of movement and pain short term through active physiotherapy, and for improving pain through a specific physiotherapy intervention.
Article summary
Article focus
Physiotherapy intervention is recommended in whiplash associated disorder II, although the most beneficial intervention and the effectiveness of physiotherapy management are unclear.
Systematic reviews have not focused on whiplash associated disorder II, which represents approximately 93% of patients presenting for management post-whiplash injury.
The objective of this systematic review was to evaluate the effectiveness of physiotherapy management in patients experiencing whiplash associated disorder II, on clinically relevant outcomes in the short and longer term.
Key messages
This systematic review demonstrates inconclusive very low/low quality evidence for the effectiveness of physiotherapy management for whiplash associated disorder II.
There is potential benefit for improving pain and range of movement short term through active physiotherapy and for improving pain through specific physiotherapy interventions.
This potential benefit merits further consideration in a properly powered clinical trial with attention to ensure low risk of bias.
Strengths and limitations of this study
The strengths of this review are its focus to physiotherapy intervention and the most common whiplash associated disorder II classification requiring physiotherapy intervention.
A limitation is that differences between participants, interventions and trial designs limited potential meta-analyses.
Surprisingly, no chronic interventions were comparable for analysis, considering the high number of patients experiencing chronicity with whiplash associated disorder.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2011-000265
PMCID: PMC3221298  PMID: 22102642
13.  The Unmet Need for Interpreting Provision in UK Primary Care 
PLoS ONE  2011;6(6):e20837.
Background
With increasing globalisation, the challenges of providing accessible and safe healthcare to all are great. Studies show that there are substantial numbers of people who are not fluent in English to a level where they can make best use of health services. We examined how health professionals manage language barriers in a consultation.
Methods and Findings
This was a cross-sectional study in 41 UK general practices . Health professionals completed a proforma for a randomly allocated consultation session.
Seventy-seven (63%) practitioners responded, from 41(59%) practices. From 1008 consultations, 555 involved patients who did not have English as a first language; 710 took place in English; 222 were in other languages, the practitioner either communicating with the patient in their own language/using an alternative language. Seven consultations were in a mixture of English/patient's own language. Patients' first languages numbered 37 (apart from English), in contrast to health practitioners, who declared at least a basic level of proficiency in 22 languages other than English. The practitioner's reported proficiency in the language used was at a basic level in 24 consultations, whereas in 21, they reported having no proficiency at all. In 57 consultations, a relative/friend interpreted and in 6, a bilingual member of staff/community worker was used. Only in 6 cases was a professional interpreter booked. The main limitation was that only one random session was selected and assessment of patient/professional fluency in English was subjective.
Conclusions
It would appear that professional interpreters are under-used in relation to the need for them, with bilingual staff/family and friends being used commonly. In many cases where the patient spoke little/no English, the practitioner consulted in the patient's language but this approach was also used where reported practitioner proficiency was low. Further research in different setting is needed to substantiate these findings.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020837
PMCID: PMC3113854  PMID: 21695146
14.  Observational evidence for determining drug safety 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  2008;336(7645):627-628.
Is no substitute for evidence from randomised controlled trials
doi:10.1136/bmj.39491.493252.80
PMCID: PMC2270986  PMID: 18356209
15.  Protocol for Past BP: a randomised controlled trial of different blood pressure targets for people with a history of stroke of transient ischaemic attack (TIA) in primary care 
Background
Blood pressure (BP) lowering in people who have had a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) leads to reduced risk of further stroke. However, it is not clear what the target BP should be, since intensification of therapy may lead to additional adverse effects. PAST BP will determine whether more intensive BP targets can be achieved in a primary care setting, and whether more intensive therapy is associated with adverse effects on quality of life.
Methods/Design
This is a randomised controlled trial (RCT) in patients with a past history of stroke or TIA. Patients will be randomised to two groups and will either have their blood pressure (BP) lowered intensively to a target of 130 mmHg systolic, (or by 10 mmHg if the baseline systolic pressure is between 125 and 140 mmHg) compared to a standard group where the BP will be reduced to a target of 140 mmHg systolic. Patients will be managed by their practice at 1-3 month intervals depending on level of BP and followed-up by the research team at six monthly intervals for 12 months.
610 patients will be recruited from approximately 50 general practices. The following exclusion criteria will be applied: systolic BP <125 mmHg at baseline, 3 or more anti-hypertensive agents, orthostatic hypotension, diabetes mellitus with microalbuminuria or other condition requiring a lower treatment target or terminal illness.
The primary outcome will be change in systolic BP over twelve months. Secondary outcomes include quality of life, adverse events and cardiovascular events.
In-depth interviews with 30 patients and 20 health care practitioners will be undertaken to investigate patient and healthcare professionals understanding and views of BP management.
Discussion
The results of this trial will inform whether intensive blood pressure targets can be achieved in people who have had a stroke or TIA in primary care, and help determine whether or not further research is required before recommending such targets for this population.
Trial Registration
ISRCTN29062286
doi:10.1186/1471-2261-10-37
PMCID: PMC2923098  PMID: 20696047
16.  REDIRECT: cluster randomised controlled trial of GP training in first-episode psychosis 
The British Journal of General Practice  2009;59(563):e183-e190.
Background
Delays in accessing care for young people with a first episode of psychosis are significantly associated with poorer treatment response and higher relapse rates.
Aim
To assess the effect of an educational intervention for GPs on referral rates to early-intervention services and the duration of untreated psychosis for young people with first-episode psychosis.
Design of study
Stratified cluster randomised controlled trial, clustered at practice level.
Setting
Birmingham, England.
Method
Practices with access to the three early-intervention services in three inner-city primary care trusts in Birmingham were eligible for inclusion. Intervention practices received an educational intervention addressing GP knowledge, skills, and attitudes about first-episode psychosis. The primary outcome was the difference in the number of referrals to early-intervention services between practices. Secondary outcomes were duration of untreated psychosis, time to recovery, use of the Mental Health Act, and GP consultation rate during the developing illness.
Results
A total of 110 of 135 eligible practices (81%) were recruited; 179 young people were referred, 97 from intervention and 82 from control practices. The relative risk of referral was not significant: 1.20 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.74 to 1.95; P = 0.48). No effect was observed on secondary outcomes except for ‘delay in reaching early-intervention services’, which was statistically significantly shorter in patients registered in intervention practices (95% CI = 83.5 to 360.5; P = 0.002).
Conclusion
GP training on first-episode psychosis is insufficient to alter referral rates to early-intervention services or reduce the duration of untreated psychosis; however, there is a suggestion that training facilitates access to the new specialist teams for early psychosis.
doi:10.3399/bjgp09X420851
PMCID: PMC2688067  PMID: 19520016
education; primary health care; psychosis
17.  Composite and surrogate outcomes in randomised controlled trials 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  2007;334(7597):756-757.
Composite end points may mislead—and regulators allow it to happen
doi:10.1136/bmj.39176.461227.80
PMCID: PMC1852018  PMID: 17431231
18.  Baseline observations from the POSSIBLE EU® study: characteristics of postmenopausal women receiving bone loss medications 
Archives of Osteoporosis  2010;5(1-2):61-72.
Summary
Prospective Observational Scientific Study Investigating Bone Loss Experience in Europe (POSSIBLE EU®) is an ongoing longitudinal cohort study that utilises physician- and patient-reported measures to describe the characteristics and management of postmenopausal women on bone loss therapies. We report the study design and baseline characteristics of 3,402 women recruited from general practice across five European countries.
Purpose
The POSSIBLE EU® is a study describing the characteristics and management of postmenopausal women receiving bone loss medications.
Methods
Between 2005 and 2008, general practitioners enrolled postmenopausal women initiating, switching or continuing treatment with bone loss treatment in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK. Patients and physicians completed questionnaires at study entry and at 3-month intervals, for 1 year.
Results
Of 3,402 women enrolled (mean age 68.2 years [SD] 9.83), 96% were diagnosed with low bone mass; 55% of these using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Most women (92%) had comorbidities. Mean minimum T score (hip or spine) at diagnosis was −2.7 (SD 0.89; median −2.7 [interquartile range, −3.2, −2.2]) indicating low bone mineral density. Almost 40% of the women had prior fractures in adulthood, mostly non-vertebral, non-hip in nature, 30% of whom had at least two fractures and more than half experienced moderate/severe pain or fatigue. Bisphosphonates were the most common type of bone loss treatment prescribed in the 12 months preceding the study.
Conclusions
POSSIBLE EU® characterises postmenopausal women with low bone mass, exhibiting a high rate of prevalent fracture, substantial bone fragility and overall comorbidity burden. Clinical strategies for managing osteoporosis in this population varied across the five participating European countries, reflecting their different guidelines, regulations and standards of care.
doi:10.1007/s11657-010-0035-7
PMCID: PMC3010211  PMID: 21258637
Cohort studies; Osteoporosis; Postmenopausal osteoporosis; Prospective studies
19.  Examination performance of graduate entry medical students compared with mainstream students 
Summary
Objectives
To assess whether medical students on graduate entry/fast- track programmes perform as well as students on standard courses.
Design
Retrospective cohort study.
Setting
University of Birmingham Medical School.
Participants
Medical students on graduate entry/fast-track course and standard (5-year) course (‘mainstream’).
Main outcome measures
Examination marks from all assessments taken simultaneously by graduate entry course (GEC) and mainstream course students once the cohorts have combined: i.e. for the final three years of the programme. Honours awards for 2007 and 2008 graduates.
Results
In total 19,263 examination results were analysed from 1547 students. Of these 161 were GEC students and 1386 were mainstream medical students. On average mainstream students, male students, overseas students and students of South Asian ethnicity obtained lower examination marks than graduate entry students, female students, home or EU students and students of non-South Asian ethnicity, respectively. Graduate entry students were significantly more likely to achieve honours degrees than mainstream students.
Conclusion
On average the academic performance of Graduate Entry medical students at the University of Birmingham is better than mainstream medical students.
doi:10.1258/jrsm.2009.090121
PMCID: PMC2755335  PMID: 19797600
20.  Rationale and study design of a cross sectional study documenting the prevalence of Heart Failure amongst the minority ethnic communities in the UK: the E-ECHOES Study (Ethnic - Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study) 
Background
Heart failure is an important cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Studies to date have not established the prevalence heart failure amongst the minority ethnic community in the UK. T'he aim of the E-ECHOES (Ethnic - Echocardiographic Heart of England Screening Study)is to establish, for the first time, the community prevalence and severity of left ventricular systolic dysfunction (LVSD) and heart failure amongst the South Asian and Black African-Caribbean ethnic groups in the UK.
Methods/Design
This is a community based cross-sectional population survey of a sample of South Asian (i.e. those originating from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh) and Black African-Caribbean male and female subjects aged 45 years and over. Data collection undertaken using a standardised protocol comprising a questionnaire incorporating targeted clinical history taking, physical examination, and investigations with resting electrocardiography and echocardiography; and blood sampling with consent. This is the largest study on heart failure amongst these ethnic groups. Full data collection started in September 2006 and will be completed by August 2009.
Discussion
The E-ECHOES study will enable the planning and delivery of clinically and cost-effective treatment of this common and debilitating condition within these communities. In addition it will increase knowledge of the aetiology and management of heart failure within minority ethnic communities.
doi:10.1186/1471-2261-9-47
PMCID: PMC2765971  PMID: 19793391
21.  What factors predict differences in infant and perinatal mortality in primary care trusts in England? A prognostic model 
Objective To identify predictors of perinatal and infant mortality variations between primary care trusts (PCTs) and identify outlier trusts where outcomes were worse than expected.
Design Prognostic multivariable mixed models attempting to explain observed variability between PCTs in perinatal and infant mortality. We used these predictive models to identify PCTs with higher than expected rates of either outcome.
Setting All primary care trusts in England.
Population For each PCT, data on the number of infant and perinatal deaths, ethnicity, deprivation, maternal age, PCT spending on maternal services, and “Spearhead” status.
Main outcome measures Rates of perinatal and infant mortality across PCTs.
Results The final models for infant mortality and perinatal mortality included measures of deprivation, ethnicity, and maternal age. The final model for infant mortality explained 70% of the observed heterogeneity in outcome between PCTs. The final model for perinatal mortality explained 80.5% of the between-PCT heterogeneity. PCT spending on maternal services did not explain differences in observed events. Two PCTs had higher than expected rates of perinatal mortality.
Conclusions Social deprivation, ethnicity, and maternal age are important predictors of infant and perinatal mortality. Spearhead PCTs are performing in line with expectations given their levels of deprivation, ethnicity, and maternal age. Higher spending on maternity services using the current configuration of services may not reduce rates of infant and perinatal mortality.
doi:10.1136/bmj.b2892
PMCID: PMC2721034  PMID: 19654185
22.  Effect of the quality and outcomes framework on diabetes care in the United Kingdom: retrospective cohort study 
Objectives To examine the management of diabetes between 2001 and 2007 in the United Kingdom and to assess whether changes in the quality of care reflect existing temporal trends or are a direct result of the implementation of the quality and outcomes framework.
Design Retrospective cohort study.
Setting 147 general practices (annual list size over 1 million) across the UK.
Patients People with type 1 or type 2 diabetes.
Main outcome measures Annual prevalence of diabetes and attainment of process and clinical outcomes over the three years before and the three years after the introduction of the quality and outcomes framework.
Results Significant improvements in process and intermediate outcome measures were observed during the six year period, with consecutive annual improvements observed before the introduction of incentives. However, the current diagnostic case definition for the quality and outcomes framework does not capture up to two thirds of people with type 1 diabetes and a third of people with type 2 diabetes. After the introduction of the quality and outcomes framework, existing trends of improvement in glycaemic control, cholesterol levels, and blood pressure were attenuated, particularly in people with diabetes who did not meet the case definition of the quality and outcomes framework. The introduction of the quality and outcomes framework did not lead to improvement in the management of patients with type 1 diabetes, nor to a reduction in the number of patients with type 2 diabetes who had HbA1c levels greater than 10%. Introduction of the quality and outcomes framework may have increased the number of patients with type 2 diabetes with HbA1c levels of ≤7.5%; odds ratio 1.05 (95% confidence interval 1.01 to 1.09; P=0.02).
Conclusions The management of people with diabetes has improved since the late 1990s, but the impact of the quality and outcomes framework on care is not straightforward; upper thresholds may need to be removed or targets made more challenging if people are to benefit. Many patients in whom care may be suboptimal may not be captured in the quality and outcomes framework assessment.
doi:10.1136/bmj.b1870
PMCID: PMC2687510  PMID: 19474024
23.  Antenatal peer support workers and initiation of breast feeding: cluster randomised controlled trial 
Objective To assess the effectiveness of an antenatal service using community based breastfeeding peer support workers on initiation of breast feeding.
Design Cluster randomised controlled trial.
Setting Community antenatal clinics in one primary care trust in a multiethnic, deprived population.
Participants 66 antenatal clinics with 2511 pregnant women: 33 clinics including 1140 women were randomised to receive the peer support worker service and 33 clinics including 1371 women were randomised to receive standard care.
Intervention An antenatal peer support worker service planned to comprise a minimum of two contacts with women to provide advice, information, and support from approximately 24 weeks’ gestation within the antenatal clinic or at home. The trained peer support workers were of similar ethnic and sociodemographic backgrounds to their clinic population.
Main outcome measure Initiation of breast feeding obtained from computerised maternity records of the hospitals where women from the primary care trust delivered.
Results The sample was multiethnic, with only 9.4% of women being white British, and 70% were in the lowest 10th for deprivation. Most of the contacts with peer support workers took place in the antenatal clinics. Data on initiation of breast feeding were obtained for 2398 of 2511 (95.5%) women (1083/1140 intervention and 1315/1371 controls). The groups did not differ for initiation of breast feeding: 69.0% (747/1083) in the intervention group and 68.1% (896/1315) in the control groups; cluster adjusted odds ratio 1.11 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.43). Ethnicity, parity, and mode of delivery independently predicted initiation of breast feeding, but randomisation to the peer support worker service did not.
Conclusion A universal service for initiation of breast feeding using peer support workers provided within antenatal clinics serving a multiethnic, deprived population was ineffective in increasing initiation rates.
Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16126175.
doi:10.1136/bmj.b131
PMCID: PMC2636685  PMID: 19181730
24.  The effects of aetiology on outcome in patients treated with cardiac resynchronization therapy in the CARE-HF trial 
European Heart Journal  2009;30(7):782-788.
Aims
Cardiac dyssynchrony is common in patients with heart failure, whether or not they have ischaemic heart disease (IHD). The effect of the underlying cause of cardiac dysfunction on the response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) is unknown. This issue was addressed using data from the CARE-HF trial.
Methods and results
Patients (n = 813) were grouped by heart failure aetiology (IHD n = 339 vs. non-IHD n = 473), and the primary composite (all-cause mortality or unplanned hospitalization for a major cardiovascular event) and principal secondary (all-cause mortality) endpoints analysed. Heart failure severity and the degree of dyssynchrony were compared between the groups by analysing baseline clinical and echocardiographic variables. Patients with IHD were more likely to be in NYHA class IV (7.5 vs. 4.0%; P = 0.03) and to have higher NT-proBNP levels (2182 vs. 1725 pg/L), indicating more advanced heart failure. The degree of dyssynchrony was more pronounced in patients without IHD (assessed using mean QRS duration, interventricular mechanical delay, and aorta-pulmonary pre-ejection time). Left ventricular ejection fraction and left ventricular end-systolic volume improved to a lesser extent in the IHD group (4.53 vs. 8.50% and −35.68 vs. –58.52 cm3). Despite these differences, CRT improved all-cause mortality, NYHA class, and hospitalization rates to a similar extent in patients with or without IHD.
Conclusion
The benefits of CRT in patients with or without IHD were similar in relative terms in the CARE-HF study but as patients with IHD had a worse prognosis, the benefit in absolute terms may be greater.
doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehn577
PMCID: PMC2663726  PMID: 19168870
Dyssynchrony; Aetiology; Ischaemic; Resynchronization; CARE-HF
25.  Assessing the impact of a new delivery method of insulin on glycemic control using a novel trial design 
Objective
The purpose of the trial was to examine the impact of inhaled human insulin (INH) on patient or physician willingness to adopt insulin after oral diabetes agent failure.
Research design and methods
The EXPERIENCE trial was a one-year randomized controlled trial conducted at primary, secondary and tertiary care facilities in Europe and North America. The primary study endpoint was difference in glycated hemoglobin (A1c) between randomized groups at 26 weeks, and results from that phase have been reported previously. The present report concerns results from the second 26-week extension phase. We also consider the applicability of the design. The trial recruited 727 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus who, prior to randomization, were using two or more oral diabetes agents and whose A1c was ≥ 8.0%. Patients were randomized to two treatment settings: Group 1 (usual care with the option of INH) or Group 2 (usual care only). Usual care included adjusting oral therapy (optimizing current regimen or adding/deleting agents) and/or initiating subcutaneous (SC) insulin.
Results
At baseline, insulin was initiated by more (odds ratio [OR] 6.0;95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2 to 8.8; P < 0.0001) patients in Group 1 (86.2%; 76.7% INH plus 9.5% SC) than in Group 2 (50.7%; SC insulin only). The largest reduction from baseline in A1c was in Group 1 (−2.0 ± 1.2%) at Week 12 and in Group 2 (−1.8 ± 1.3%) at Week 26 (P = 0.003). At 52 weeks, 79.8% were on insulin in Group 1 (67.4% INH; 12.4% SC) vs 58.1% (SC only) in Group 2, and mean (SD) changes in A1c from baseline were −1.9% (1.2%) and −1.8% (1.3%) in Groups 1 and 2, respectively (P = 0.05). Hypoglycemic event rates per patient month were 0.3 and 0.1 in Groups 1 and 2, respectively (P < 0.0001).
Conclusion
The EXPERIENCE trial showed that novel delivery technology can accelerate the adoption of insulin although some attenuation of differences is observed over time. And further, that this was achieved in a population of patients who appeared more ready to move to insulin therapy than observed in standard clinical practice, and a group of physicians who appeared more ready to adopt INH than the majority of physicians.
PMCID: PMC3048012  PMID: 21437114
inhaled insulin; EXPERIENCE trial; diabetes; patient preference

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