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author:("bolle, P. Y.")
1.  Short- and Long-Term Effects of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination of Children on Penicillin Resistance 
Recent observations have shown that wide-scale vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines was associated with a reduction in invasive disease, supporting the expectation that vaccination could help reduce carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae and control the spread of resistant strains. However, it is too early to assess whether these effects can be sustained in the long term. Here, we used mathematical modeling to investigate time changes in pneumococcal colonization and resistance induced by conjugate vaccination in an environment where antibiotic exposure is high and resistance is widespread. According to model predictions, vaccination induced a decrease in carriage of vaccine-type pneumococci to very low levels, typically in 10 to 15 years under epidemiologically realistic conditions. Almost simultaneously, non-vaccine-type pneumococci spread in the community. Consequently, while there was a short-term decrease in the overall carriage rate, it was followed after a few years by a renewed, although limited, increase. Vaccination with a heptavalent vaccine did not affect the extent to which antibiotic resistance was selected: in all cases, the distribution of resistance levels peaked at high levels (MIC > 2 μg/ml) after 20 years. With a vaccine optimally designed to include all serotypes currently exhibiting decreased susceptibility to penicillin G, the selection of resistance was slowed down, although not prevented. These results suggest that because of serotype replacement, the effects of vaccination observed today may not be sustained in the long term. As a consequence, vaccination alone may not be successful in controlling selection for resistance in S. pneumoniae.
doi:10.1128/AAC.48.6.2206-2213.2004
PMCID: PMC415598  PMID: 15155223
2.  Bacterial Resistance to Penicillin G by Decreased Affinity of Penicillin-Binding Proteins: A Mathematical Model 
Emerging Infectious Diseases  2003;9(4):411-417.
Streptococcus pneumoniae and Neisseria meningitidis have very similar mechanisms of resistance to penicillin G. Although penicillin resistance is now common in S. pneumoniae, it is still rare in N. meningitidis. Using a mathematical model, we studied determinants of this difference and attempted to anticipate trends in meningococcal resistance to penicillin G. The model predicted that pneumococcal resistance in a population similar to that of France might emerge after 20 years of widespread use of β-lactam antibiotics; this period may vary from 10 to 30 years. The distribution of resistance levels became bimodal with time, a pattern that has been observed worldwide. The model suggests that simple differences in the natural history of colonization, interhuman contact, and exposure to β-lactam antibiotics explain major differences in the epidemiology of resistance of S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis.
doi:10.3201/eid0904.020213
PMCID: PMC2957969  PMID: 12702219
antibiotic resistance, mathematical models, Streptococcus pneumonia, Neisseria meningitidis; penicillin G, microbiology, epidemiology, selection, transmission, perspective
3.  Automatic coding of reasons for hospital referral from general medicine free-text reports. 
Although the coding of medical data is expected to benefit both patients and the health care system, its implementation as a manual process often represents a poorly attractive workload for the physician. For epidemiological purpose, we developed a simple automatic coding system based on string matching, which was designed to process free-text sentences stating reasons for hospital referral, as collected from general practitioners (GPs). This system relied on a look-up table, built up from 2590 reports giving a single reason for referral, which were coded manually according to the International Classification of Primary Care (ICPC). We tested the system by entering 797 new reasons for referral. The match rate was estimated at 77%, and the accuracy rate, at 80% at code level and 92% at chapter level. This simple system is now routinely used by a national epidemiological network of sentinel physicians.
PMCID: PMC2243796  PMID: 11079931

Results 1-3 (3)