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1.  Framingham cardiovascular disease risk scores and incident frailty: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 
Age (Dordrecht, Netherlands)  2014;36(4):9692.
Cross-sectional studies show that frailty is common in older people with cardiovascular disease. Whether older people at higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease are more likely to become frail is unclear. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the prospective relation between Framingham cardiovascular disease risk scores and incidence of physical frailty or pre-frailty, defined according to the Fried criteria, in 1726 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing who had no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Men and women with higher Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were more likely to become frail over the 4-year follow-up period. For a standard deviation higher score at baseline, the relative risk ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident frailty, adjusted for sex and baseline frailty status, was 2.76 (2.18, 3.49). There was a significant association between Framingham cardiovascular risk score and risk of pre-frailty: 1.69 (1.46, 1.95). After further adjustment for other potential confounding factors the relative risk ratios for frailty and pre-frailty were 2.15 (1.68, 2.75) and 1.50 (1.29, 1.74) respectively. The associations were unchanged after excluding incident cases of cardiovascular disease. Separate adjustment for each component of the risk score suggested that no single component was driving the associations between cardiovascular risk score and incident pre-frailty or frailty. Framingham cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for predicting the development of physical frailty in older people. We now need to understand the biological mechanisms whereby cardiovascular risk increases the risk of frailty.
doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9692-6
PMCID: PMC4129936  PMID: 25085033
frailty; cardiovascular risk; cohort; longitudinal study
2.  Global, regional, and national levels and causes of maternal mortality during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Kassebaum, Nicholas J | Bertozzi-Villa, Amelia | Coggeshall, Megan S | Shackelford, Katya A | Steiner, Caitlyn | Heuton, Kyle R | Gonzalez-Medina, Diego | Barber, Ryan | Huynh, Chantal | Dicker, Daniel | Templin, Tara | Wolock, Timothy M | Ozgoren, Ayse Abbasoglu | Abd-Allah, Foad | Abera, Semaw Ferede | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Achoki, Tom | Adelekan, Ademola | Ademi, Zanfina | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie E | Akena, Dickens | Alasfoor, Deena | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alla, François | Allen, Peter J | AlMazroa, Mohammad A | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzmán, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Antonio, Carl A T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asad, Majed Masoud | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Basu, Arindam | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bedi, Neeraj | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku J | Bhutta, Zulfiqar | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Breitborde, Nicholas | Cárdenas, Rosario | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Castro, Ruben Estanislao | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Cavlin, Alanur | Chang, Jung-Chen | Che, Xuan | Christophi, Costas A | Chugh, Sumeet S | Cirillo, Massimo | Colquhoun, Samantha M | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | da Costa Leite, Iuri | Dandona, Lalit | Dandona, Rakhi | Davis, Adrian | Dayama, Anand | Degenhardt, Louisa | De Leo, Diego | del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Dessalegn, Muluken | deVeber, Gabrielle A | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Dorrington, Rob E | Driscoll, Tim R | Ermakov, Sergei Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Felicio, Manuela Mendonca | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | de Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | França, Elisabeth B | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gambashidze, Ketevan | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Garcia, Ana C | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gibney, Katherine B | Giroud, Maurice | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Goginashvili, Ketevan | Gona, Philimon | González-Castell, Dinorah | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rahul | Gupta, Rajeev | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Heredia Pi, Ileana B | Hoek, Hans W | Hosgood, H Dean | Hoy, Damian G | Husseini, Abdullatif | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Inoue, Manami | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jahangir, Eiman | Jee, Sun Ha | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kabagambe, Edmond Kato | Kan, Haidong | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazanjan, Konstantin | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, Soewarta | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kumar, G Anil | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kwan, Gene | Lai, Taavi | Lalloo, Ratilal | Lam, Hilton | Lansingh, Van C | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Xiaohong | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | Liang, Juan | Liang, Xiaofeng | Lim, Stephen S | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | London, Stephanie J | Lotufo, Paulo A | Ma, Jixiang | Ma, Stefan | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Mainoo, Nana Kwaku | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | de la Cruz Monis, Jonathan | Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez | Moore, Ami R | Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar | Mori, Rintaro | Mueller, Ulrich O | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Nand, Devina | Nangia, Vinay | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark J | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Park, Jae-Hyun | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Poenaru, Dan | Polanczyk, Guilherme V | Polinder, Suzanne | Pope, Dan | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Refaat, Amany | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sánchez Pimienta, Tania Georgina | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Salomon, Joshua A | Sampson, Uchechukwu | Santos, Itamar S | Sawhney, Monika | Sayinzoga, Felix | Schneider, Ione J C | Schumacher, Austin | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Shakh-Nazarova, Marina | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sposato, Luciano A | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Sturua, Lela | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tan, Feng | Teixeira, Carolina Maria | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Tirschwell, David L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Tran, Bach X | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Undurraga, Eduardo A | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | van Gool, Coen H | Vasankari, Tommi J | Vavilala, Monica S | Venketasubramanian, N | Villalpando, Salvador | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vos, Theo | Waller, Stephen | Wang, Haidong | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | Wilkinson, James D | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Wordofa, Muluemebet Abera | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa Z | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El SayedZaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Naghavi, Mohsen | Murray, Christopher J L | Lozano, Rafael
Lancet  2014;384(9947):980-1004.
Summary
Background
The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.
Methods
We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990–2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.
Findings
292 982 (95% UI 261 017–327 792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376 034 (343 483–407 574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was −0·3% (−1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and −2·7% (−3·9 to −1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290–2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2–0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1–1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6–3·6) in Iceland.
Interpretation
Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60696-6
PMCID: PMC4255481  PMID: 24797575
3.  Grip Strength across the Life Course: Normative Data from Twelve British Studies 
PLoS ONE  2014;9(12):e113637.
Introduction
Epidemiological studies have shown that weaker grip strength in later life is associated with disability, morbidity, and mortality. Grip strength is a key component of the sarcopenia and frailty phenotypes and yet it is unclear how individual measurements should be interpreted. Our objective was to produce cross-sectional centile values for grip strength across the life course. A secondary objective was to examine the impact of different aspects of measurement protocol.
Methods
We combined 60,803 observations from 49,964 participants (26,687 female) of 12 general population studies in Great Britain. We produced centile curves for ages 4 to 90 and investigated the prevalence of weak grip, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean. We carried out a series of sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of dynamometer type and measurement position (seated or standing).
Results
Our results suggested three overall periods: an increase to peak in early adult life, maintenance through to midlife, and decline from midlife onwards. Males were on average stronger than females from adolescence onwards: males’ peak median grip was 51 kg between ages 29 and 39, compared to 31 kg in females between ages 26 and 42. Weak grip strength, defined as strength at least 2.5 SDs below the gender-specific peak mean, increased sharply with age, reaching a prevalence of 23% in males and 27% in females by age 80. Sensitivity analyses suggested our findings were robust to differences in dynamometer type and measurement position.
Conclusion
This is the first study to provide normative data for grip strength across the life course. These centile values have the potential to inform the clinical assessment of grip strength which is recognised as an important part of the identification of people with sarcopenia and frailty.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113637
PMCID: PMC4256164  PMID: 25474696
4.  Modifiable early-life risk factors for childhood adiposity and overweight: an analysis of their combined impact and potential for prevention1234 
Background: Early life may be a “critical period” when appetite and regulation of energy balance are programmed, with lifelong consequences for obesity risk. Insight into the potential impact of modifying early-life risk factors on later obesity can be gained by evaluating their combined effects.
Objective: The objective was to examine the relation between the number of early-life risk factors and obesity outcomes among children in a prospective birth cohort (Southampton Women's Survey).
Design: Five risk factors were defined: maternal obesity [prepregnant body mass index (BMI; in kg/m2) >30], excess gestational weight gain (Institute of Medicine, 2009), smoking during pregnancy, low maternal vitamin D status (<64 nmol/L), and short duration of breastfeeding (none or <1 mo). Obesity outcomes examined when the children were aged 4 and 6 y were BMI, dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry–assessed fat mass, overweight, or obesity (International Obesity Task Force). Data were available for 991 mother-child pairs, with children born between 1998 and 2003.
Results: Of the children, 148 (15%) had no early-life risk factors, 330 (33%) had 1, 296 (30%) had 2, 160 (16%) had 3, and 57 (6%) had 4 or 5. At both 4 and 6 y, there were positive graded associations between number of early-life risk factors and each obesity outcome (all P < 0.001). After taking account of confounders, the relative risk of being overweight or obese for children who had 4 or 5 risk factors was 3.99 (95% CI: 1.83, 8.67) at 4 y and 4.65 (95% CI: 2.29, 9.43) at 6 y compared with children who had none (both P < 0.001).
Conclusions: Having a greater number of early-life risk factors was associated with large differences in adiposity and risk of overweight and obesity in later childhood. These findings suggest that early intervention to change these modifiable risk factors could make a significant contribution to the prevention of childhood obesity.
doi:10.3945/ajcn.114.094268
PMCID: PMC4307207  PMID: 25646335
adiposity; childhood obesity; early life; obesity; lifecourse; prevention
5.  Inflammatory markers and incident frailty in men and women: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 
Age  2013;35(6):2493-2501.
Cross-sectional studies show that higher blood concentrations of inflammatory markers tend to be more common in frail older people, but longitudinal evidence that these inflammatory markers are risk factors for frailty is sparse and inconsistent. We investigated the prospective relation between baseline concentrations of the inflammatory markers C-reactive protein (CRP) and fibrinogen and risk of incident frailty in 2,146 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. The relationship between CRP and fibrinogen and risk of incident frailty differed significantly by sex (p for interaction terms <0.05). In age-adjusted logistic regression analyses, for a standard deviation (SD) increase in CRP or fibrinogen, odds ratios (95 % confidence intervals) for incident frailty in women were 1.69 (1.32, 2.17) and 1.39 (1.12, 1.72), respectively. Further adjustment for other potential confounding factors attenuated both these estimates. For an SD increase in CRP and fibrinogen, the fully-adjusted odds ratio (95 % confidence interval) for incident frailty in women was 1.27 (0.96, 1.69) and 1.31 (1.04, 1.67), respectively. Having a high concentration of both inflammatory markers was more strongly predictive of incident frailty than having a high concentration of either marker alone. In men, there were no significant associations between any of the inflammatory markers and risk of incident frailty. High concentrations of the inflammatory markers CRP and fibrinogen are more strongly predictive of incident frailty in women than in men. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying this sex difference.
doi:10.1007/s11357-013-9528-9
PMCID: PMC3751755  PMID: 23543263
Frailty; Inflammation; C-reactive protein; Fibrinogen; Longitudinal study
6.  Assessing diets of 3 year old children: evaluation of a food frequency questionnaire 
Public health nutrition  2013;17(5):1069-1077.
Objective
To evaluate the use of an administered 80-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) to assess nutrient intake and diet quality in 3 year old children.
Design
Frequency of consumption and portion size of the foods listed on the FFQ during the 3 months preceding the interview were reported by the child’s main caregiver; after the interview a 2-day prospective food diary (FD) was completed on behalf of the child. Nutrient intakes from FFQ and FD were estimated using UK food composition data. Diet quality was assessed from the FFQ and FD, according to the child’s scores for a principal component analysis-defined dietary pattern (‘prudent’ pattern), characterised by high consumption of fruit, vegetables, water and wholemeal cereals.
Subjects
892 children aged 3 years in the Southampton Women’s Survey
Setting
Southampton, UK
Results
Intakes of all nutrients assessed by FFQ were higher than FD estimates, but there was reasonable agreement in terms of ranking of children (range for Spearman rank correlations for energy-adjusted nutrient intakes, rs=0.41 to 0.59). Prudent diet scores estimated from the FFQ and FD were highly correlated (r=0.72). Some family and child characteristics appeared to influence the ability of the FFQ to rank children, most notably the number of child’s meals eaten away from home.
Conclusion
The FFQ provides useful information to allow ranking of children at this age with respect to nutrient intake and quality of diet, but may overestimate absolute intakes. Dietary studies of young children need to consider family and child characteristics that may impact on reporting error associated with an FFQ.
doi:10.1017/S136898001300102X
PMCID: PMC3743718  PMID: 23635946
dietary assessment; young children; food frequency questionnaire
7.  Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 
Murray, Christopher J L | Ortblad, Katrina F | Guinovart, Caterina | Lim, Stephen S | Wolock, Timothy M | Roberts, D Allen | Dansereau, Emily A | Graetz, Nicholas | Barber, Ryan M | Brown, Jonathan C | Wang, Haidong | Duber, Herbert C | Naghavi, Mohsen | Dicker, Daniel | Dandona, Lalit | Salomon, Joshua A | Heuton, Kyle R | Foreman, Kyle | Phillips, David E | Fleming, Thomas D | Flaxman, Abraham D | Phillips, Bryan K | Johnson, Elizabeth K | Coggeshall, Megan S | Abd-Allah, Foad | Ferede, Semaw | Abraham, Jerry P | Abubakar, Ibrahim | Abu-Raddad, Laith J | Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me | Achoki, Tom | Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi | Adou, Arsène Kouablan | Adsuar, José C | Agardh, Emilie Elisabet | Akena, Dickens | Al Kahbouri, Mazin J | Alasfoor, Deena | Albittar, Mohammed I | Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel | Alegretti, Miguel Angel | Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw | Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael | Alhabib, Samia | Ali, Raghib | Alla, Francois | Allen, Peter J | Alsharif, Ubai | Alvarez, Elena | Alvis-Guzman, Nelson | Amankwaa, Adansi A | Amare, Azmeraw T | Amini, Hassan | Ammar, Walid | Anderson, Benjamin O | Antonio, Carl Abelardo T | Anwari, Palwasha | Ärnlöv, Johan | Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic | Artaman, Ali | Asghar, Rana J | Assadi, Reza | Atkins, Lydia S | Badawi, Alaa | Balakrishnan, Kalpana | Banerjee, Amitava | Basu, Sanjay | Beardsley, Justin | Bekele, Tolesa | Bell, Michelle L | Bernabe, Eduardo | Beyene, Tariku Jibat | Bhala, Neeraj | Bhalla, Ashish | Bhutta, Zulfiqar A | Abdulhak, Aref Bin | Binagwaho, Agnes | Blore, Jed D | Basara, Berrak Bora | Bose, Dipan | Brainin, Michael | Breitborde, Nicholas | Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A | Catalá-López, Ferrán | Chadha, Vineet K | Chang, Jung-Chen | Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia | Chuang, Ting-Wu | Colomar, Mercedes | Cooper, Leslie Trumbull | Cooper, Cyrus | Courville, Karen J | Cowie, Benjamin C | Criqui, Michael H | Dandona, Rakhi | Dayama, Anand | De Leo, Diego | Degenhardt, Louisa | Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja | Deribe, Kebede | Jarlais, Don C Des | Dessalegn, Muluken | Dharmaratne, Samath D | Dilmen, Uğur | Ding, Eric L | Driscoll, Tim R | Durrani, Adnan M | Ellenbogen, Richard G | Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich | Esteghamati, Alireza | Faraon, Emerito Jose A | Farzadfar, Farshad | Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad | Fijabi, Daniel Obadare | Forouzanfar, Mohammad H | Paleo, Urbano Fra. | Gaffikin, Lynne | Gamkrelidze, Amiran | Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho | Geleijnse, Johanna M | Gessner, Bradford D | Gibney, Katherine B | Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed | Glaser, Elizabeth L | Gona, Philimon | Goto, Atsushi | Gouda, Hebe N | Gugnani, Harish Chander | Gupta, Rajeev | Gupta, Rahul | Hafezi-Nejad, Nima | Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi | Hammami, Mouhanad | Hankey, Graeme J | Harb, Hilda L | Haro, Josep Maria | Havmoeller, Rasmus | Hay, Simon I | Hedayati, Mohammad T | Pi, Ileana B Heredia | Hoek, Hans W | Hornberger, John C | Hosgood, H Dean | Hotez, Peter J | Hoy, Damian G | Huang, John J | Iburg, Kim M | Idrisov, Bulat T | Innos, Kaire | Jacobsen, Kathryn H | Jeemon, Panniyammakal | Jensen, Paul N | Jha, Vivekanand | Jiang, Guohong | Jonas, Jost B | Juel, Knud | Kan, Haidong | Kankindi, Ida | Karam, Nadim E | Karch, André | Karema, Corine Kakizi | Kaul, Anil | Kawakami, Norito | Kazi, Dhruv S | Kemp, Andrew H | Kengne, Andre Pascal | Keren, Andre | Kereselidze, Maia | Khader, Yousef Saleh | Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan | Khan, Ejaz Ahmed | Khang, Young-Ho | Khonelidze, Irma | Kinfu, Yohannes | Kinge, Jonas M | Knibbs, Luke | Kokubo, Yoshihiro | Kosen, S | Defo, Barthelemy Kuate | Kulkarni, Veena S | Kulkarni, Chanda | Kumar, Kaushalendra | Kumar, Ravi B | Kumar, G Anil | Kwan, Gene F | Lai, Taavi | Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana | Lam, Hilton | Lan, Qing | Lansingh, Van C | Larson, Heidi J | Larsson, Anders | Lee, Jong-Tae | Leigh, James | Leinsalu, Mall | Leung, Ricky | Li, Yichong | Li, Yongmei | De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira | Lin, Hsien-Ho | Lipshultz, Steven E | Liu, Shiwei | Liu, Yang | Lloyd, Belinda K | Lotufo, Paulo A | Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro | Maclachlan, Jennifer H | Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos | Majdan, Marek | Mapoma, Christopher Chabila | Marcenes, Wagner | Marzan, Melvin Barrientos | Masci, Joseph R | Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq | Mason-Jones, Amanda J | Mayosi, Bongani M | Mazorodze, Tasara T | Mckay, Abigail Cecilia | Meaney, Peter A | Mehndiratta, Man Mohan | Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola | Melaku, Yohannes Adama | Memish, Ziad A | Mendoza, Walter | Miller, Ted R | Mills, Edward J | Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin | Mokdad, Ali H | Mola, Glen Liddell | Monasta, Lorenzo | Montico, Marcella | Moore, Ami R | Mori, Rintaro | Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora | Mukaigawara, Mitsuru | Murthy, Kinnari S | Naheed, Aliya | Naidoo, Kovin S | Naldi, Luigi | Nangia, Vinay | Narayan, K M Venkat | Nash, Denis | Nejjari, Chakib | Nelson, Robert G | Neupane, Sudan Prasad | Newton, Charles R | Ng, Marie | Nisar, Muhammad Imran | Nolte, Sandra | Norheim, Ole F | Nowaseb, Vincent | Nyakarahuka, Luke | Oh, In-Hwan | Ohkubo, Takayoshi | Olusanya, Bolajoko O | Omer, Saad B | Opio, John Nelson | Orisakwe, Orish Ebere | Pandian, Jeyaraj D | Papachristou, Christina | Caicedo, Angel J Paternina | Patten, Scott B | Paul, Vinod K | Pavlin, Boris Igor | Pearce, Neil | Pereira, David M | Pervaiz, Aslam | Pesudovs, Konrad | Petzold, Max | Pourmalek, Farshad | Qato, Dima | Quezada, Amado D | Quistberg, D Alex | Rafay, Anwar | Rahimi, Kazem | Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa | Rahman, Sajjad Ur | Raju, Murugesan | Rana, Saleem M | Razavi, Homie | Reilly, Robert Quentin | Remuzzi, Giuseppe | Richardus, Jan Hendrik | Ronfani, Luca | Roy, Nobhojit | Sabin, Nsanzimana | Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya | Sahraian, Mohammad Ali | Samonte, Genesis May J | Sawhney, Monika | Schneider, Ione J C | Schwebel, David C | Seedat, Soraya | Sepanlou, Sadaf G | Servan-Mori, Edson E | Sheikhbahaei, Sara | Shibuya, Kenji | Shin, Hwashin Hyun | Shiue, Ivy | Shivakoti, Rupak | Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora | Silberberg, Donald H | Silva, Andrea P | Simard, Edgar P | Singh, Jasvinder A | Skirbekk, Vegard | Sliwa, Karen | Soneji, Samir | Soshnikov, Sergey S | Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T | Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi | Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos | Swaminathan, Soumya | Sykes, Bryan L | Tabb, Karen M | Talongwa, Roberto Tchio | Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah | Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman | Thomson, Alan J | Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L | Towbin, Jeffrey A | Traebert, Jefferson | Tran, Bach X | Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala | Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis | Uchendu, Uche S | Ukwaja, Kingsley N | Uzun, Selen Begüm | Vallely, Andrew J | Vasankari, Tommi J | Venketasubramanian, N | Violante, Francesco S | Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich | Vollset, Stein Emil | Waller, Stephen | Wallin, Mitchell T | Wang, Linhong | Wang, XiaoRong | Wang, Yanping | Weichenthal, Scott | Weiderpass, Elisabete | Weintraub, Robert G | Westerman, Ronny | White, Richard A | Wilkinson, James D | Williams, Thomas Neil | Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret | Wong, John Q | Xu, Gelin | Yang, Yang C | Yano, Yuichiro | Yentur, Gokalp Kadri | Yip, Paul | Yonemoto, Naohiro | Yoon, Seok-Jun | Younis, Mustafa | Yu, Chuanhua | Jin, Kim Yun | El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa | Zhao, Yong | Zheng, Yingfeng | Zhou, Maigeng | Zhu, Jun | Zou, Xiao Nong | Lopez, Alan D | Vos, Theo
Lancet  2014;384(9947):1005-1070.
Summary
Background
The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration.
Methods
To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets.
Findings
Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990.
Interpretation
Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS’s estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. The number of people living with HIV, tuberculosis, or malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action.
Funding
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
PMCID: PMC4202387  PMID: 25059949
8.  Dupuytren’s contracture and occupational exposure to hand-transmitted vibration 
Aims
The relation between Dupuytren’s contracture and occupational exposure to hand-transmitted vibration (HTV) has frequently been debated. We explored associations in a representative national sample of workers with well-characterised exposure to HTV.
Methods
We mailed a questionnaire to 21,201 subjects aged 16 – 64 years, selected at random from the age-sex registers of 34 general practices in Great Britain and to 993 subjects chosen randomly from military pay records, asking about occupational exposure to 39 sources of HTV and about fixed flexion contracture of the little or ring finger. Analysis was restricted to men at work in the previous week. Estimates were made of average daily vibration dose (A(8) r.m.s.) over that week. Associations with Dupuytren’s contracture were estimated by Poisson regression, both for lifetime exposure to HTV and for exposures in the past week >A(8) of 2.8 ms−2 r.m.s.. Estimates of relative risk (Prevalence Ratio (PR)) were adjusted for age, smoking status, social class and certain manual activities at work.
Results
In all 4,969 eligible male respondents supplied full information on the study variables. These included 72 men with Dupuytren’s contracture, 2,287 with occupational exposure to HTV, and 409 with A(8)>2.8 ms−2 in the past week. PRs for occupational exposure to HTV were elevated 1.5-fold. For men with an A(8)>2.8 ms−2 in the past week, the adjusted PR was 2.85 (95% confidence interval 1.37 to 5.97).
Conclusions
Our findings suggest that risk of Dupuytren’s contracture is more than doubled in men with high levels of weekly exposure to HTV.
doi:10.1136/oemed-2013-101981
PMCID: PMC3963601  PMID: 24449599
9.  Lower Maternal Body Condition During Pregnancy Affects Skeletal Muscle Structure and Glut-4 Protein Levels But Not Glucose Tolerance in Mature Adult Sheep 
Reproductive Sciences  2013;20(10):1144-1155.
Suboptimal maternal nutrition and body composition are implicated in metabolic disease risk in adult offspring. We hypothesized that modest disruption of glucose homeostasis previously observed in young adult sheep offspring from ewes of a lower body condition score (BCS) would deteriorate with age, due to changes in skeletal muscle structure and insulin signaling mechanisms. Ewes were fed to achieve a lower (LBCS, n = 10) or higher (HBCS, n = 14) BCS before and during pregnancy. Baseline plasma glucose, glucose tolerance and basal glucose uptake into isolated muscle strips were similar in male offspring at 210 ± 4 weeks. Vastus total myofiber density (HBCS, 343 ± 15; LBCS, 294 ± 14 fibers/mm2, P < .05) and fast myofiber density (HBCS, 226 ± 10; LBCS 194 ± 10 fibers/mm2, P < .05), capillary to myofiber ratio (HBCS, 1.5 ± 0.1; LBCS 1.2 ± 0.1 capillary:myofiber, P < .05) were lower in LBCS offspring. Vastus protein levels of Akt1 were lower (83% ± 7% of HBCS, P < .05), and total glucose transporter 4 was increased (157% ± 6% of HBCS, P < .001) in LBCS offspring, Despite the reduction in total myofiber density in LBCS offspring, glucose tolerance was normal in mature adult life. However, such adaptations may lead to complications in metabolic control in an overabundant postnatal nutrient environment.
doi:10.1177/1933719113477494
PMCID: PMC3766346  PMID: 23420826
glucose uptake; myofibers; type 2 diabetes; maternal body condition; skeletal muscle
10.  Processed meat consumption and lung function: modification by antioxidants and smoking 
The European respiratory journal  2013;43(4):972-982.
Unhealthy dietary patterns are associated with poorer lung function. It is not known whether this is due to low consumption of antioxidant-rich fruit and vegetables, or is a consequence of higher intakes of harmful dietary constituents such as processed meat.
We examined the individual and combined associations of processed meat, fruit and vegetable consumption and dietary total antioxidant capacity (TAC) with lung function among 1551 men and 1391 women in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, UK. Diet was assessed by food frequency questionnaire.
After controlling for confounders, processed meat consumption was negatively associated with forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC) and FEV1/FVC in men and women, while fruit and vegetable consumption and dietary TAC were positively associated with FEV1 and FVC, but not FEV1/FVC. In men the negative association between processed meat consumption and FEV1 was more marked in those who had low fruit and vegetable consumption (Pinteraction=0.035), and low dietary TAC (Pinteraction=0.025). The deficit in FEV1/FVC associated with processed meat consumption was larger in men who smoked (Pinteraction=0.022).
Higher processed meat consumption is associated with poorer lung function, especially in men who have lower fruit and vegetable consumption or dietary TAC, and among current smokers.
doi:10.1183/09031936.00109513
PMCID: PMC3956622  PMID: 24176995
Dietary balance; total antioxidant capacity; fruit and vegetables; processed meat; lung function
11.  Healthy Conversation Skills: increasing competence and confidence in front-line staff 
Public health nutrition  2012;17(3):700-707.
Objectives
1) To assess change in confidence in having conversations that support parents with healthy eating and physical activity post-training. 2) To assess change in staff competence in using ‘open discovery’ questions (those generally beginning with “how” and “what” that help individuals reflect and identify barriers and solutions) post-training. 3) To examine the relationship between confidence and competence post-training.
Design
A pre-post evaluation of ‘Healthy Conversation Skills’, a staff training intervention.
Setting
Sure Start Children’s Centres in Southampton, England.
Participants
A total of 145 staff working in Sure Start Children’s Centres completed the training, including playworkers (45%) and community development or family support workers (31%).
Results
We observed an increase in median confidence rating for having conversations about healthy eating and physical activity (both p<0.001), and in using ‘open discovery’ questions (p<0.001) after staff attended the ‘Healthy Conversation Skills’ training. We also found a positive relationship between use of ‘open discovery’ questions and confidence in having conversations about healthy eating post-training (r=0.21, p=0.01), but a non-significant trend was observed for having conversations about physical activity (r=0.15, p=0.06).
Conclusions
The ‘Healthy Conversation Skills’ training has proved effective at increasing the confidence of staff working at Sure Start Children’s Centres to have more productive conversations with parents about healthy eating. Wider implementation of these skills may be a useful public health nutrition capacity building strategy to help community workers support families with young children to eat more healthy foods.
doi:10.1017/S1368980012004089
PMCID: PMC3776723  PMID: 22989477
12.  Childhood bone mineral content is associated with methylation status of the RXRA promoter at birth 
Maternal vitamin D deficiency has been associated with reduced offspring bone mineral accrual. Retinoid-X Receptor-alpha (RXRA) is an essential cofactor in the action of 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D, and RXRA methylation in umbilical cord DNA has been associated with later offspring adiposity. We tested the hypothesis that RXRA methylation in umbilical cord DNA collected at birth is associated with offspring skeletal development, assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, in a population-based mother-offspring cohort (Southampton Women’s Survey). Relationships between maternal plasma 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations and cord RXRA methylation were also investigated. In 230 children aged 4 years, higher % methylation at 4 out of 6 RXRA CpG sites measured was correlated with lower offspring % bone mineral content (%BMC) (β=−0.02 to −0.04%/SD, p=0.002 to 0.043) and BMC corrected for body size (β=−2.1 to −3.4g/SD, p=0.002 to 0.047), with a further site associated with %BMC only. Similar relationships for %BMC were observed in a second independent cohort (n=64). Maternal free 25(OH)-vitamin D index was negatively associated with methylation at one of these RXRA CpG sites (β=−3.3 SD/unit, p=0.03). In addition to the mechanistic insights afforded by associations between maternal free 25(OH)-vitamin D index, RXRA methylation in umbilical cord DNA, and childhood BMC, such epigenetic marks in early life might represent novel biomarkers for adverse bone outcomes in the offspring.
doi:10.1002/jbmr.2056
PMCID: PMC3836689  PMID: 23907847
Epigenetic; methylation; umbilical cord; RXRA; vitamin D; DXA
13.  Grip strength and its determinants among older people in different healthcare settings 
Age and ageing  2013;43(2):241-246.
Background
Low muscle strength is central to geriatric syndromes including sarcopenia and frailty. It is well described in community dwelling older people but the epidemiology of grip strength of older people in rehabilitation or long term care has been little explored.
Objective
To describe grip strength of older people in rehabilitation and nursing home settings.
Design
Cross-sectional epidemiological study.
Setting
3 healthcare settings in one town.
Subjects
101 inpatients on a rehabilitation ward, 47 community rehabilitation referrals and 100 nursing home residents.
Methods
Grip strength, age, height, weight, body mass index, number of co-morbidities and medications, Barthel score, mini mental state examination (MMSE), nutritional status, and number of falls in the last year were recorded.
Results
Grip strength differed substantially between healthcare settings for both men and women (p<0.0001). Nursing home residents had the lowest age-adjusted mean grip strength and community rehabilitation referrals the highest. Broadly higher grip strength was associated in univariate analyses with younger age, greater height and weight, fewer comorbidities, higher Barthel score, higher MMSE score, better nutritional status and fewer falls. However after mutual adjustment for these factors, the difference in grip strength between settings remained significant. Barthel score was the characteristic most strongly associated with grip strength.
Conclusions
Older people in rehabilitation and care home settings had lower grip strength than reported for those living at home. Furthermore grip strength varied widely between healthcare settings independent of known major influences. Further research is required to ascertain whether grip strength may help identify people at risk of adverse health outcomes within these settings.
doi:10.1093/ageing/aft118
PMCID: PMC3918578  PMID: 23926093
grip strength; older; healthcare setting; rehabilitation; nursing home
14.  The dynamic relationship between cognitive function and walking speed: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 
Age (Dordrecht, Netherlands)  2014;36(4):9682.
Cross-sectional studies show that older people with better cognition tend to walk faster. Whether this association reflects an influence of fluid cognition upon walking speed, vice versa, a bidirectional relationship, or the effect of common causes is unclear. We used linear mixed effects models to examine the dynamic relationship between usual walking speed and fluid cognition, as measured by executive function, verbal memory and processing speed, in 2654 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. There was a bidirectional relation between walking speed and fluid cognition. After adjusting for age and sex, better performance on executive function, memory and processing speed was associated with less yearly decline in walking speed over the six-year follow-up period; faster walking speed was associated with less yearly decline in each cognitive domain; less yearly decline in each cognitive domain was associated with less yearly decline in walking speed. Effect sizes were small. After further adjustment for other covariates effect sizes were attenuated but most remained statistically significant. We found some evidence that walking speed and the fluid cognitive domains of executive function and processing speed may change in parallel with increasing age. Investigation of the association between walking speed and cognition earlier in life is needed to better understand the origins of this relation and inform the development and timing of interventions.
doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9682-8
PMCID: PMC4119879  PMID: 24997019
cohort studies; cognitive function; walking speed; ageing
15.  Body mass index is not a clinically meaningful predictor of patient reported outcomes of primary hip replacement surgery: prospective cohort study 
Objectives
To describe whether body mass index (BMI) is a clinically meaningful predictor of patient reported outcomes following primary total hip replacement (THR) surgery
Design
Combined data from prospective cohort studies. We obtained information from four cohorts of patients receiving primary THR for osteoarthritis: Exeter Primary Outcomes Study (n=1431); EUROHIP (n=1327); Elective Orthopaedic Centre (n=2832); and St. Helier (n=787). The exposure of interest was pre-operative BMI. Confounding variables included: age, sex, SF-36 mental health, comorbidities, fixed flexion, analgesic use, college education, OA in other joints, expectation of less pain, radiographic K&L grade, ASA grade, years of hip pain. The primary outcome was the Oxford Hip Score (OHS). Regression models describe the association of BMI on outcome adjusting for all confounders.
Results
For a 5-unit increase in BMI, the attained 12-month OHS decreases by 0.78 points 95%CI (0.27 to 1.28), p-value 0.001. Compared to people of normal BMI (20 to 25), those in the obese class II (BMI 35 to 40) would have a 12-month OHS that is 2.34 points lower. Although statistically significant this effect is small and not clinically meaningful in contrast to the substantial change in OHS seen across all BMI groupings. In obese class II patients achieved a 22.2 point change in OHS following surgery.
Conclusions
Patients achieved substantial change in OHS after THR across all BMI categories, which greatly outweighs the small difference in attained post-operative score. The findings suggest BMI should not present a barrier to access THR in terms of PROMs.
doi:10.1016/j.joca.2013.12.018
PMCID: PMC4147658  PMID: 24418679
Epidemiology; Osteoarthritis; Hip replacement; Patient reported outcome; body mass index; decision making
16.  Vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy: A systematic review 
1. ABSTRACT
Background
It is unclear whether the current evidence base allows definite conclusions to be made regarding the optimal maternal circulating concentration of 25(OH)-vitamin D during pregnancy, and how this might best be achieved. CRD42011001426.
Aim/ Research Questions
What are the clinical criteria for vitamin D deficiency in pregnant women?What adverse maternal and neonatal health outcomes are associated with low maternal circulating 25(OH)-vitamin D?Does maternal supplementation with vitamin D in pregnancy lead to an improvement in these outcomes (including assessment of compliance and effectiveness)?What is the optimal type (D2 or D3), dose, regimen and route for vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy?Is supplementation with vitamin D in pregnancy likely to be cost-effective?
Methods
We performed systematic review and where possible combined study results using meta-analysis to estimate the combined effect size.
Major electronic databases were searched up to June 2012 covering both published and grey literature. Bibliographies of selected papers were hand-searched for additional references. Relevant authors were contacted for any unpublished findings and additional data if necessary.
Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Subjects
Pregnant women or pregnant women and their offspring.
Exposure
Either assessment of vitamin D status (dietary intake, sunlight exposure, circulating 25(OH)-vitamin D concentration) or supplementation of participants with vitamin D or vitamin D containing food e.g. oily fish.
Outcomes
Offspring: Birth weight, birth length, head circumference, bone mass, anthropometry and body composition, risk of asthma and atopy, small for gestational dates, preterm birth, type 1 diabetes, low birth weight, serum calcium concentration, blood pressure and rickets. Mother: Preeclampsia, gestational diabetes, risk of caesarean section and bacterial vaginosis.
Results
76 studies were included. There was considerable heterogeneity between the studies and for most outcomes there was conflicting evidence.
The evidence base was insufficient to reliably answer question 1 in relation to biochemical or disease outcomes.
For questions 2 and 3, modest positive relationships were identified between maternal 25(OH)-vitamin D and 1) offspring birth weight in meta-analysis of 3 observational studies using log-transformed 25(OH)-vitamin D concentrations after adjustment for potential confounding factors (pooled regression coefficient 5.63g/10% change maternal 25(OH)D, 95% CI 1.11,10.16), but not in those 4 studies using natural units, or across intervention studies; 2) offspring cord blood or postnatal calcium concentrations in a meta-analysis of 6 intervention studies (all found to be at high risk of bias; mean difference 0.05mmol/l, 95% CI 0.02, 0.05); and 3) offspring bone mass in observational studies judged to be of good quality, but which did not permit meta-analysis.
The evidence base was insufficient to reliably answer questions 4 and 5.
Limitations
Study methodology varied widely in terms of study design, population used, vitamin D status assessment, exposure measured and outcome definition.
Conclusions
The evidence base is currently insufficient to support definite clinical recommendations regarding vitamin D supplementation in pregnancy. Although there is modest evidence to support a relationship between maternal 25(OH)-vitamin D status and offspring birth weight, bone mass and serum calcium concentrations, these findings were limited by their observational nature (birth weight, bone mass) or risk of bias and low quality (calcium concentrations). High quality randomised trials are now required.
doi:10.3310/hta18450
PMCID: PMC4124722  PMID: 25025896
17.  Framingham cardiovascular disease risk scores and incident frailty: the English longitudinal study of ageing 
Age  2014;36(4):9692.
Cross-sectional studies show that frailty is common in older people with cardiovascular disease. Whether older people at higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease are more likely to become frail is unclear. We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the prospective relation between Framingham cardiovascular disease risk scores and incidence of physical frailty or pre-frailty, defined according to the Fried criteria, in 1,726 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing who had no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. Men and women with higher Framingham cardiovascular risk scores were more likely to become frail over the 4-year follow-up period. For a standard deviation higher score at baseline, the relative risk ratio (95 % confidence interval) for incident frailty, adjusted for sex and baseline frailty status, was 2.76 (2.18, 3.49). There was a significant association between Framingham cardiovascular risk score and risk of pre-frailty: 1.69 (1.46, 1.95). After further adjustment for other potential confounding factors, the relative risk ratios for frailty and pre-frailty were 2.15 (1.68, 2.75) and 1.50 (1.29, 1.74), respectively. The associations were unchanged after excluding incident cases of cardiovascular disease. Separate adjustment for each component of the risk score suggested that no single component was driving the associations between cardiovascular risk score and incident pre-frailty or frailty. Framingham cardiovascular risk scores may be useful for predicting the development of physical frailty in older people. We now need to understand the biological mechanisms whereby cardiovascular risk increases the risk of frailty.
doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9692-6
PMCID: PMC4129936  PMID: 25085033
Frailty; Cardiovascular risk; Cohort; Longitudinal study
18.  Psychological wellbeing and incident frailty in men and women: The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 
Psychological medicine  2013;44(4):697-706.
Background
Observations that older people who enjoy life more tend to live longer suggest that psychological wellbeing may be a potential resource for healthier ageing. We investigated whether psychological wellbeing was associated with incidence of physical frailty.
Methods
We used multinomial logistic regression to examine the prospective relation between psychological wellbeing, assessed using the CASP-19 questionnaire that assesses perceptions of control, autonomy, self-realization and pleasure, and incidence of physical frailty or pre-frailty, defined according to the Fried criteria, in 2557 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.
Results
Men and women with higher levels of psychological wellbeing were less likely to become frail over the 4-year follow-up period. For a standard deviation higher score in psychological wellbeing at baseline, the relative risk ratio (95% confidence interval) for incident frailty, adjusted for age, sex and baseline frailty status, was 0.46 (0.40, 0.54). There was a significant association between psychological wellbeing and risk of pre-frailty: 0.69 (0.63, 0.77). Examination of scores for hedonic (pleasure) and eudaimonic (control, autonomy and self-realization) wellbeing showed that higher scores on both were associated with decreased risk. Associations were partially attenuated by further adjustment for other potential confounding factors but persisted. Incidence of pre-frailty or frailty was associated with a decline in wellbeing, suggesting that the relationship is bi-directional.
Conclusions
Maintaining a stronger sense of psychological wellbeing in later life may protect against the development of physical frailty. Future research needs to establish the mechanisms underlying these findings.
doi:10.1017/S0033291713001384
PMCID: PMC3818135  PMID: 23822897
19.  Physical capability and subsequent positive mental wellbeing in older people: findings from five HALCyon cohorts 
Age (Dordrecht, Netherlands)  2013;36(1):10.1007/s11357-013-9553-8.
Objective measures of physical capability are being used in a growing number of studies as biomarkers of healthy ageing. However, very little research has been done to assess the impact of physical capability on subsequent positive mental wellbeing, the maintenance of which is widely considered to be an essential component of healthy ageing. We aimed to test the associations of grip strength and walking, timed get up and go and chair rise speeds (assessed at ages 53 to 82 years) with positive mental wellbeing assessed using the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale (WEMWBS) five to ten years later. Data were drawn from five British cohorts participating in the HALCyon research collaboration. Data from each study were analysed separately and then combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Higher levels of physical capability were consistently associated with higher subsequent levels of wellbeing; for example, a 1SD increase in grip strength was associated with an age and sex-adjusted mean difference in WEMWBS score of 0.81 (0.25, 1.37), equivalent to 10% of a standard deviation (3 studies, N=3,096). When adjusted for body size, health status, living alone, socioeconomic position and neuroticism the associations remained albeit attenuated. The finding of these consistent modest associations across five studies, spanning early and later old age, highlights the importance of maintaining physical capability in later life and provides additional justification for using objective measures of physical capability as markers of healthy ageing.
doi:10.1007/s11357-013-9553-8
PMCID: PMC3818137  PMID: 23818103
physical capability; positive mental wellbeing; grip strength; walking speed; chair rise time
20.  Obesity, Healthcare Utilization and Health-Related Quality of Life after Fracture in Postmenopausal Women: Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW) 
Calcified tissue international  2014;94(2):223-231.
Fractures in obese postmenopausal women may be associated with higher morbidity than in non-obese women. We aimed to compare healthcare utilization, functional status, and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in obese, non-obese and underweight women with fractures. Information from GLOW, started in 2006, was collected at baseline and at 1, 2 and 3 years. In this subanalysis, self-reported incident clinical fractures, healthcare utilization, HRQL and functional status were recorded and examined. Women in GLOW (n = 60,393) were aged ≥55 years, from 723 physician practices at 17 sites in 10 countries. Complete data for fracture and body mass index were available for 90 underweight, 3,270 non-obese and 941 obese women with ≥1 incident clinical fracture during the 3-year follow-up. The median hospital length of stay, adjusted for age, comorbidities and fracture type, was significantly greater in obese than non-obese women (6 vs. 5 days, P = 0.017). Physical function and vitality score were significantly worse in obese than in non-obese women, both before and after fracture, but changes after fracture were similar across groups. Use of anti-osteoporosis medication was significantly lower in obese than in non-obese or underweight women. In conclusion, obese women with fracture undergo a longer period of hospitalization for treatment and have poorer functional status and HRQL than non-obese women. Whether these differences translate into higher economic costs and adverse effects on longer-term outcomes remains to be established.
doi:10.1007/s00223-013-9801-z
PMCID: PMC3917823  PMID: 24077896
Fractures; Healthcare utilization; Functional status; Quality of life; Obesity
21.  Associations between APOE and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol genotypes and cognitive and physical capability: the HALCyon programme 
Age  2014;36(4):9673.
The APOE ε2/3/4 genotype has been associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and Alzheimer disease. However, evidence for associations with measures of cognitive performance in adults without dementia has been mixed, as it is for physical performance. Associations may also be evident in other genotypes implicated in LDL-C levels. As part of the Healthy Ageing across the Life Course (HALCyon) collaborative research programme, genotypic information was obtained for APOE ε2/3/4, rs515135 (APOB), rs2228671 (LDLR) and rs629301 (SORT1) from eight cohorts of adults aged between 44 and 90 + years. We investigated associations with four measures of cognitive (word recall, phonemic fluency, semantic fluency and search speed) and physical capability (grip strength, get up and go/walk speed, timed chair rises and ability to balance) using meta-analyses. Overall, little evidence for associations between any of the genotypes and measures of cognitive capability was observed (e.g. pooled beta for APOE ε4 effect on semantic fluency z score = −0.02; 95 % CI = −0.05 to 0.02; p value = 0.3; n = 18,796). However, there was borderline evidence within studies that negative effects of APOE ε4 on nonverbal ability measures become more apparent with age. Few genotypic associations were observed with physical capability measures. The findings from our large investigation of middle-aged to older adults in the general population suggest that effects of APOE on cognitive capability are at most modest and are domain- and age-specific, while APOE has little influence on physical capability. In addition, other LDL-C-related genotypes have little impact on these traits.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9673-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9673-9
PMCID: PMC4150901  PMID: 25073452
Ageing; Apolipoprotein E; Cognition; Single nucleotide polymorphism
22.  The effect of a behaviour change intervention on the diets and physical activity levels of women attending Sure Start Children’s Centres: results from a complex public health intervention 
BMJ Open  2014;4(7):e005290.
Objectives
The UK government's response to the obesity epidemic calls for action in communities to improve people's health behaviour. This study evaluated the effects of a community intervention on dietary quality and levels of physical activity of women from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Design
Non-randomised controlled evaluation of a complex public health intervention.
Participants
527 women attending Sure Start Children's Centres (SSCC) in Southampton (intervention) and 495 women attending SSCCs in Gosport and Havant (control).
Intervention
Training SSCC staff in behaviour change skills that would empower women to change their health behaviours.
Outcomes
Main outcomes dietary quality and physical activity. Intermediate outcomes self-efficacy and sense of control.
Results
1-year post-training, intervention staff used skills to support behaviour change significantly more than control staff. There were statistically significant reductions of 0.1 SD in the dietary quality of all women between baseline and follow-up and reductions in self-efficacy and sense of control. The decline in self-efficacy and control was significantly smaller in women in the intervention group than in women in the control group (adjusted differences in self-efficacy and control, respectively, 0.26 (95% CI 0.001 to 0.50) and 0.35 (0.05 to 0.65)). A lower decline in control was associated with higher levels of exposure in women in the intervention group. There was a statistically significant improvement in physical activity in the intervention group, with 22.9% of women reporting the highest level of physical activity compared with 12.4% at baseline, and a smaller improvement in the control group. The difference in change in physical activity level between the groups was not statistically significant (adjusted difference 1.02 (0.74 to 1.41)).
Conclusions
While the intervention did not improve women's diets and physical activity levels, it had a protective effect on intermediate factors—control and self-efficacy—suggesting that a more prolonged exposure to the intervention might improve health behaviour. Further evaluation in a more controlled setting is justified.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005290
PMCID: PMC4120404  PMID: 25031194
complex public health intervention; behavour change; diet ; physical activity; self efficacy; sense of control
23.  The dynamic relationship between cognitive function and walking speed: the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 
Age  2014;36(4):9682.
Cross-sectional studies show that older people with better cognition tend to walk faster. Whether this association reflects an influence of fluid cognition upon walking speed, vice versa, a bidirectional relationship or the effect of common causes is unclear. We used linear mixed effects models to examine the dynamic relationship between usual walking speed and fluid cognition, as measured by executive function, verbal memory and processing speed, in 2,654 men and women aged 60 to over 90 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. There was a bidirectional relationship between walking speed and fluid cognition. After adjusting for age and sex, better performance on executive function, memory and processing speed was associated with less yearly decline in walking speed over the 6-year follow-up period; faster walking speed was associated with less yearly decline in each cognitive domain; and less yearly decline in each cognitive domain was associated with less yearly decline in walking speed. Effect sizes were small. After further adjustment for other covariates, effect sizes were attenuated but most remained statistically significant. We found some evidence that walking speed and the fluid cognitive domains of executive function and processing speed may change in parallel with increasing age. Investigation of the association between walking speed and cognition earlier in life is needed to better understand the origins of this relation and inform the development and timing of interventions.
doi:10.1007/s11357-014-9682-8
PMCID: PMC4119879  PMID: 24997019
Cohort studies; Cognitive function; Walking speed; Ageing
24.  Association of early childhood abdominal circumference and weight gain with blood pressure at 36 months of age: secondary analysis of data from a prospective cohort study 
BMJ Open  2014;4(7):e005412.
Objectives
To assess whether changes in measures of fat distribution and body size during early life are associated with blood pressure at 36 months of age.
Design
Analysis of data collected from a prospective cohort study.
Setting
Community-based investigation in Southampton, UK.
Participants
761 children with valid blood pressure measurements, born to women participating in the Southampton Women’s Survey.
Primary and secondary outcome measures
Anthropometric measurements were collected at 0, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months and conditional changes between the time points calculated. Blood pressure was measured at 36 months. Factors possibly influencing the blood pressure were assessed using linear regression. All independent variables of interest and confounding variables were included in stepwise multiple regression to identify the model that best predicted blood pressure at 36 months.
Results
Greater conditional gains in abdominal circumference (AC) between 0–6 and 24–36 months were associated with higher systolic and diastolic blood pressures at 36 months (p<0.001). Subscapular skinfold and height gains were weakly associated with higher blood pressures, while greater weight gains between 0–6, 12–24 and 24–36 months were more strongly associated, but the dominant influences were AC gains, particularly from 0–6 to 24–36 months. Thus one SD score increases in AC between 0–6 and 24–36 months were associated with 1.59 mm Hg (95% CI 0.97 to 2.21) and 1.84 mm Hg (1.24 to 2.46) higher systolic blood pressures, respectively, and 1.04 mm Hg (0.57 to 1.51) and 1.02 mm Hg (0.56, 1.48) higher diastolic pressures, respectively.
Conclusions
Conditional gains in abdominal circumference, particularly within 6 months of birth and in the year preceding measurement, were more positively associated with blood pressure at 36 months than gains in other anthropometric measures. Above-average AC gains in early childhood may contribute to adult hypertension and increased cardiovascular disease risk.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005412
PMCID: PMC4091398  PMID: 24993768
EPIDEMIOLOGY
25.  Fracture prevention in patients with cognitive impairment presenting with a hip fracture: secondary analysis of data from the HORIZON Recurrent Fracture Randomised Controlled Trial 
PURPOSE
Patients with cognitive impairment (CI) are at high risk of fracture but often denied osteoporosis therapy. We tested whether the effects of zoledronic acid (Zol) on re-fracture and mortality differed in patients presenting with a hip fracture by cognitive status.
METHODS
We used data from the HORIZON Recurrent Fracture Trial, of yearly intravenous 5mg Zol vs. placebo in patients presenting with a hip fracture. Primary outcome was new fracture and secondary outcome mortality.
Short Portable Mental Status Questionnaire (SPMSQ) with a cut-point of >2 was used to identify CI. Fine-Gray models for competing events were fitted to study the effect of Zol on re-fracture and Cox regression for death. A multiplicative term was introduced to study a potential interaction between treatment and cognitive status on outcomes.
RESULTS
1,966/2,127 (92.4%) patients had baseline SPMSQ measured. 350 (17.8%) had CI, balanced between treatment arms. In the placebo arm, there was similar fracture incidence between those with and without CI (15.4% vs. 12.3%, p=0.26). There was no significant interaction for the effect of CI on Zol and re-fracture (p=0.66)). CI was associated with higher 1-year mortality (12.6% vs. 4.3%, p<0.001) and the interaction was bordering significance (interaction p=0.066). Zol prolonged survival only in patients with normal cognitive status (HR 0.56 [95%CI 0.40-0.80]) and not in those with CI (HR 0.90 [95%CI 0.59-1.38]).
CONCLUSIONS
While these results require confirmation, the findings support the use of bisphosphonates in patients with both osteoporotic fracture and CI expected to live for more than 6 months.
doi:10.1007/s00198-013-2420-8
PMCID: PMC3867338  PMID: 23812596
Fractures, Bone; Mortality; Zoledronic Acid; Dementia; Epidemiology

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