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1.  Long term follow up of severely ill patients who underwent urgent cardiac transplantation. 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  1993;306(6870):98-101.
OBJECTIVE--To assess long term survival (> 5 years) and quality of life in severely ill patients referred for urgent cardiac transplantation. SETTING--Tertiary referral centres: before transplantation at the National Heart Hospital (late 1984 to end 1986); after transplantation at Harefield Hospital. SUBJECTS--Eighteen patients (15 men; three women) who had required intensive support in hospital before cardiac transplantation and were alive at short term follow up. INTERVENTIONS--Intravenous infusions of cardiac drugs (mean 2.2 infusions), intravenous diuretics (17 patients), and many other drugs before transplantation. Intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation (four patients), temporary pacing (two), and resuscitation from cardiac arrest (three). Patients had specialised nursing care on a medical intensive care unit in almost every case. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Long term survival in patients after urgent cardiac transplantation and perceived quality of life. RESULTS--Of 18 patients who were alive at short term follow up (mean (range) 19.4 (10-33) months), 14 were still alive in 1992 (69 (61-83) months). Ten still worked full time, and 11 reported no restrictions in their daily activities. Three of four patients who died in the intervening period survived > 5 years after transplantation. Overall, 17 of 18 patients survived at least 5 years. CONCLUSIONS--In severely ill patients who undergo urgent cardiac transplantation and survive in the short term, long term (5-7 year) survival and quality of life seem good.
PMCID: PMC1676690  PMID: 8435650
2.  High-risk surgery as an alternative to transplantation. 
Texas Heart Institute Journal  1994;21(4):302-304.
Between April 1992 and April 1994, 185 patients were waiting for a cardiac transplant at our institution. Transplantation was performed in 118 of these patients. Twenty-six patients (14%) died while awaiting a donor heart: 13 of these were in the intensive care unit on multiple inotropic medications, mechanical support, or both; another 13 were either in the hospital on a single inotropic medication or at home with or without inotropic support. The remaining 41 patients were still awaiting transplantation at the end of the study period. During the same interval, 20 comparably ill patients who were referred to our institution for transplantation were considered for high-risk conventional surgical procedures. These patients underwent clinical evaluation to determine whether they had viable muscle that was salvageable and electrophysiologic status that was alterable. On this basis, these 20 patients underwent a variety of combined high-risk procedures. Two patients died; the operative mortality was 5% and the cumulative mortality was 10%. We conclude that these initial results support our original impression that mortality rates are higher in patients waiting for cardiac donation than in patients undergoing high-risk surgical procedures. Therefore, we will continue to investigate high-risk conventional surgery as an alternative to cardiac transplantation.
PMCID: PMC325193  PMID: 7888806
3.  Cardiac transplantation in severely ill patients requiring intensive support in hospital 
Sixty four patients were referred for cardiac transplantation from a single cardiac team at this hospital between October 1984 and December 1986. Of these patients, 33 were referred for urgent transplantation, all of whom required intensive treatment in hospital with intravenous infusions of cardiac drugs, intra-aortic balloon counterpulsation, peritoneal dialysis, ventilation, or any combination of these to sustain life. Of these 33 patients, six died while awaiting transplantation, one was removed from the waiting list for a transplant, and 26 received cardiac transplants. There were five deaths within 24 hours of operation and one death 10 days after the operation. Twenty of those who had surgery had a successful outcome of transplantation, but there was one late death 10 weeks postoperatively and a further death 31 months after surgery. Eighteen patients were alive and well 10 to 33 months (mean 19·4 months) after transplantation, with an overall survival rate after surgery of 69%.
Provided that surgery can be performed before renal failure has progressed such that renal transplantation is necessary, the results are excellent (surgical survival 85·5%) and, we believe, justify the expenditure and staffing requirements necessary to treat these terminally ill patients.
Images
PMCID: PMC2545105  PMID: 3285954
4.  Intrahospital Transport of Children on Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Indications, Process, Interventions and Effectiveness 
Objective
Critically ill patients supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are transported within the hospital to the radiology suite, cardiac catheterization suite, operating room, and from one ICU to another. No studies to date have systematically evaluated intra-hospital transport (IHT) while on ECMO. This study aims to evaluate indications, process, interventions, and effectiveness of patients undergoing IHT.
Design
Retrospective cohort analysis.
Setting
Cardiac intensive care unit in a tertiary care children's hospital.
Patients
All patients requiring IHT while on ECMO between January 1996 and March 2007 were included and analyzed in detail.
Measurement and Main Results
A total of 57 IHTs for cardiac catheterization (CC) and head CT scans were analyzed. In 14/20 (70%) of CC patients, a management change occurred as a result of the diagnostic CC. In 10/17 (59%) bedside echo was of limited value in defining the critical problem. In the interventional group the majority of transports were for atrial septostomy. In the head CT group significant pathology was identified, which led to management change. No major complications occurred during these IHTs.
Conclusions
IHT while on ECMO is labor intensive and requiring extensive logistic support, it can be carried out safely in experienced hands and results in important therapeutic and diagnostic yields. To our knowledge this is the first study designed to evaluate safety and efficacy of IHT for patients receiving ECMO support.
doi:10.1097/PCC.0b013e3181b063b2
PMCID: PMC3039026  PMID: 19593245
Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; intra-hospital transport; cardiac catheterization; CT scan; children
5.  Extracorporeal Lung Support Technologies – Bridge to Recovery and Bridge to Lung Transplantation in Adult Patients 
Executive Summary
For cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and progressive chronic respiratory failure, the first choice or treatment is mechanical ventilation. For decades, this method has been used to support critically ill patients in respiratory failure. Despite its life-saving potential, however, several experimental and clinical studies have suggested that ventilator-induced lung injury can adversely affect the lungs and patient outcomes. Current opinion is that by reducing the pressure and volume of gas delivered to the lungs during mechanical ventilation, the stress applied to the lungs is eased, enabling them to rest and recover. In addition, mechanical ventilation may fail to provide adequate gas exchange, thus patients may suffer from severe hypoxia and hypercapnea. For these reasons, extracorporeal lung support technologies may play an important role in the clinical management of patients with lung failure, allowing not only the transfer of oxygen and carbon dioxide (CO2) but also buying the lungs the time needed to rest and heal.
Objective
The objective of this analysis was to assess the effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal lung support technologies in the improvement of pulmonary gas exchange and the survival of adult patients with acute pulmonary failure and those with end-stage chronic progressive lung disease as a bridge to lung transplantation (LTx). The application of these technologies in primary graft dysfunction (PGD) after LTx is beyond the scope of this review and is not discussed.
Clinical Applications of Extracorporeal Lung Support
Extracorporeal lung support technologies [i.e., Interventional Lung Assist (ILA) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)] have been advocated for use in the treatment of patients with respiratory failure. These techniques do not treat the underlying lung condition; rather, they improve gas exchange while enabling the implantation of a protective ventilation strategy to prevent further damage to the lung tissues imposed by the ventilator. As such, extracorporeal lung support technologies have been used in three major lung failure case types:
As a bridge to recovery in acute lung failure – for patients with injured or diseased lungs to give their lungs time to heal and regain normal physiologic function.
As a bridge to LTx – for patients with irreversible end stage lung disease requiring LTx.
As a bridge to recovery after LTx – used as lung support for patients with PGD or severe hypoxemia.
Ex-Vivo Lung Perfusion and Assessment
Recently, the evaluation and reconditioning of donor lungs ex-vivo has been introduced into clinical practice as a method of improving the rate of donor lung utilization. Generally, about 15% to 20% of donor lungs are suitable for LTx, but these figures may increase with the use of ex-vivo lung perfusion. The ex-vivo evaluation and reconditioning of donor lungs is currently performed at the Toronto General Hospital (TGH) and preliminary results have been encouraging (Personal communication, clinical expert, December 17, 2009). If its effectiveness is confirmed, the use of the technique could lead to further expansion of donor organ pools and improvements in post-LTx outcomes.
Extracorporeal Lung support Technologies
ECMO
The ECMO system consists of a centrifugal pump, a membrane oxygenator, inlet and outlet cannulas, and tubing. The exchange of oxygen and CO2 then takes place in the oxygenator, which delivers the reoxygenated blood back into one of the patient’s veins or arteries. Additional ports may be added for haemodialysis or ultrafiltration.
Two different techniques may be used to introduce ECMO: venoarterial and venovenous. In the venoarterial technique, cannulation is through either the femoral artery and the femoral vein, or through the carotid artery and the internal jugular vein. In the venovenous technique cannulation is through both femoral veins or a femoral vein and internal jugular vein; one cannula acts as inflow or arterial line, and the other as an outflow or venous line. Venovenous ECMO will not provide adequate support if a patient has pulmonary hypertension or right heart failure. Problems associated with cannulation during the procedure include bleeding around the cannulation site and limb ischemia distal to the cannulation site.
ILA
Interventional Lung Assist (ILA) is used to remove excess CO2 from the blood of patients in respiratory failure. The system is characterized by a novel, low-resistance gas exchange device with a diffusion membrane composed of polymethylpentene (PMP) fibres. These fibres are woven into a complex configuration that maximizes the exchange of oxygen and CO2 by simple diffusion. The system is also designed to operate without the help of an external pump, though one can be added if higher blood flow is required. The device is then applied across an arteriovenous shunt between the femoral artery and femoral vein. Depending on the size of the arterial cannula used and the mean systemic arterial pressure, a blood flow of up to 2.5 L/min can be achieved (up to 5.5 L/min with an external pump). The cannulation is performed after intravenous administration of heparin.
Recently, the first commercially available extracorporeal membrane ventilator (NovaLung GmbH, Hechingen, Germany) was approved for clinical use by Health Canada for patients in respiratory failure. The system has been used in more than 2,000 patients with various indications in Europe, and was used for the first time in North America at the Toronto General Hospital in 2006.
Evidence-Based Analysis
The research questions addressed in this report are:
Does ILA/ECMO facilitate gas exchange in the lungs of patients with severe respiratory failure?
Does ILA/ECMO improve the survival rate of patients with respiratory failure caused by a range of underlying conditions including patients awaiting LTx?
What are the possible serious adverse events associated with ILA/ECMO therapy?
To address these questions, a systematic literature search was performed on September 28, 2009 using OVID MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, the Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), the Cochrane Library, and the International Agency for Health Technology Assessment (INAHTA) for studies published from January 1, 2005 to September 28, 2008. Abstracts were reviewed by a single reviewer and, for those studies meeting the eligibility criteria, full-text articles were obtained. Reference lists were also examined for any additional relevant studies not identified through the search. Articles with an unknown eligibility were reviewed with a second clinical epidemiologist and then a group of epidemiologists until consensus was established.
Inclusion Criteria
Studies in which ILA/ECMO was used as a bridge to recovery or bridge to LTx
Studies containing information relevant to the effectiveness and safety of the procedure
Studies including at least five patients
Exclusion Criteria
Studies reporting the use of ILA/ECMO for inter-hospital transfers of critically ill patients
Studies reporting the use of ILA/ECMO in patients during or after LTx
Animal or laboratory studies
Case reports
Outcomes of Interest
Reduction in partial pressure of CO2
Correction of respiratory acidosis
Improvement in partial pressure of oxygen
Improvement in patient survival
Frequency and severity of adverse events
The search yielded 107 citations in Medline and 107 citations in EMBASE. After reviewing the information provided in the titles and abstracts, eight citations were found to meet the study inclusion criteria. One study was then excluded because of an overlap in the study population with a previous study. Reference checking did not produce any additional studies for inclusion. Seven case series studies, all conducted in Germany, were thus included in this review (see Table 1).
Also included is the recently published CESAR trial, a multicentre RCT in the UK in which ECMO was compared with conventional intensive care management. The results of the CESAR trial were published when this review was initiated. In the absence of any other recent RCT on ECMO, the results of this trial were considered for this assessment and no further searches were conducted. A literature search was then conducted for application of ECMO as bridge to LTx patients (January, 1, 2005 to current). A total of 127 citations on this topic were identified and reviewed but none were found to have examined the use of ECMO as bridge to LTx.
Quality of Evidence
To grade the quality of evidence, the grading system formulated by the GRADE working group and adopted by MAS was applied. The GRADE system classifies the quality of a body of evidence as high, moderate, low, or very low according to four key elements: study design, study quality, consistency across studies, and directness.
Results
Trials on ILA
Of the seven studies identified, six involved patients with ARDS caused by a range of underlying conditions; the seventh included only patients awaiting LTx. All studies reported the rate of gas exchange and respiratory mechanics before ILA and for up to 7 days of ILA therapy. Four studies reported the means and standard deviations of blood gas transfer and arterial blood pH, which were used for meta-analysis.
Fischer et al. reported their first experience on the use of ILA as a bridge to LTx. In their study, 12 patients at high urgency status for LTx, who also had severe ventilation refractory hypercapnea and respiratory acidosis, were connected to ILA prior to LTx. Seven patients had a systemic infection or sepsis prior to ILA insertion. Six hours after initiation of ILA, the partial pressure of CO2 in arterial blood significantly decreased (P < .05) and arterial blood pH significantly improved (P < .05) and remained stable for one week (last time point reported). The partial pressure of oxygen in arterial blood improved from 71 mmHg to 83 mmHg 6 hours after insertion of ILA. The ratio of PaO2/FiO2 improved from 135 at baseline to 168 at 24 hours after insertion of ILA but returned to baseline values in the following week.
Trials on ECMO
The UK-based CESAR trial was conducted to assess the effectiveness and cost of ECMO therapy for severe, acute respiratory failure. The trial protocol were published in 2006 and details of the methods used for the economic evaluation were published in 2008. The study itself was a pragmatic trial (similar to a UK trial of neonatal ECMO), in which best standard practice was compared with an ECMO protocol. The trial involved 180 patients with acute but potentially reversible respiratory failure, with each also having a Murray score of ≥ 3.0 or uncompensated hypercapnea at a pH of < 7.2. Enrolled patients were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive either conventional ventilation treatment or ECMO while on ventilator. Conventional management included intermittent positive pressure ventilation, high frequency oscillatory ventilation, or both. As a pragmatic trial, a specific management protocol was not followed; rather the treatment centres were advised to follow a low volume low pressure ventilation strategy. A tidal volume of 4 to 8 mL/kg body weight and a plateau pressure of < 30 cm H2O were recommended.
Conclusions
ILA
Bridge to recovery
No RCTs or observational studies compared ILA to other treatment modalities.
Case series have shown that ILA therapy results in significant CO2 removal from arterial blood and correction of respiratory acidosis, as well as an improvement in oxygen transfer.
ILA therapy enabled a lowering of respiratory settings to protect the lungs without causing a negative impact on arterial blood CO2 and arterial blood pH.
The impact of ILA on patient long-term survival cannot be determined through the studies reviewed.
In-hospital mortality across studies ranged from 20% to 65%.
Ischemic complications were the most frequent adverse events following ILA therapy.
Leg amputation is a rare but possible outcome of ILA therapy, having occurred in about 0.9% of patients in these case series. New techniques involving the insertion of additional cannula into the femoral artery to perfuse the leg may lower this rate.
Bridge to LTx
The results of one case series (n=12) showed that ILA effectively removes CO2 from arterial blood and corrects respiratory acidosis in patients with ventilation refractory hypercapnea awaiting a LTx
Eight of the 12 patients (67%) awaiting a LTx were successfully transplanted and one-year survival for those transplanted was 80%
Since all studies are case series, the grade of the evidence for these observations is classified as “LOW”.
ECMO
Bridge to recovery
Based on the results of a pragmatic trial and an intention to treat analysis, referral of patient to an ECMO based centre significantly improves patient survival without disability compared to conventional ventilation. The results of CESAR trial showed that:
For patients with information about disability, survival without severe disability was significantly higher in ECMO arm
Assuming that the three patients in the conventional ventilation arm who did not have information about severe disability were all disabled, the results were also significant.
Assuming that none of these patients were disabled, the results were at borderline significance
A greater, though not statistically significant, proportion of patients in ECMO arm survived.
The rate of serious adverse events was higher among patients in ECMO group
The grade of evidence for the above observations is classified as “HIGH”.
Bridge to LTx
No studies fitting the inclusion criteria were identified.
There is no accurate data on the use of ECMO in patients awaiting LTx.
Economic Analysis
The objective of the economic analysis was to determine the costs associated with extracorporeal lung support technologies for bridge to LTx in adults. A literature search was conducted for which the target population was adults eligible for extracorporeal lung support. The primary analytic perspective was that of the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care (MOHLTC). Articles published in English and fitting the following inclusion criteria were reviewed:
Full economic evaluations including cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA), cost-utility analyses (CUA), cost-benefit analyses (CBA);
Economic evaluations reporting incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) i.e. cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY), life years gained (LYG), or cost per event avoided; and
Studies in patients eligible for lung support technologies for to lung transplantation.
The search yielded no articles reporting comparative economic analyses.
Resource Use and Costs
Costs associated with both ILA and ECMO (outlined in Table ES-1) were obtained from the University Health Network (UHN) case costing initiative (personal communication, UHN, January 2010). Consultation with a clinical expert in the field was also conducted to verify resource utilization. The consultant was situated at the UHN in Toronto. The UHN has one ECMO machine, which cost approximately $100,000. The system is 18 years old and is used an average of 3 to 4 times a year with 35 procedures being performed over the last 9 years. The disposable cost per patient associated with ECMO is, on average, $2,200. There is a maintenance cost associated with the machine (not reported by the UHN), which is currently absorbed by the hospital’s biomedical engineering department.
The average capital cost of an ILA device is $7,100 per device, per patient, while the average cost of the reusable pump $65,000. The UHN has performed 16 of these procedures over the last 2.5 years. Similarly, there is a maintenance cost not that was reported by UHN but is absorbed by the hospital’s biomedical engineering department.
Resources Associated with Extracorporeal Lung Support Technologies
Hospital costs associated with ILA were based on the average cost incurred by the hospital for 11 cases performed in the FY 07/08 (personal communication, UHN, January 2010). The resources incurred with this hospital procedure included:
Device and disposables
OR transplant
Surgical ICU
Laboratory work
Medical imaging
Pharmacy
Clinical nutrition
Physiotherapy
Occupational therapy
Speech and language pathology
Social work
The average length of stay in hospital was 61 days for ILA (range: 5 to 164 days) and the average direct cost was $186,000 per case (range: $19,000 to $552,000). This procedure has a high staffing requirement to monitor patients in hospital, driving up the average cost per case.
PMCID: PMC3415698  PMID: 23074408
6.  An Early, Novel Illness Severity Score to Predict Outcome after Cardiac Arrest 
Resuscitation  2011;82(11):1399-1404.
Background
Illness severity scores are commonly employed in critically ill patients to predict outcome. To date, prior scores for post-cardiac arrest patients rely on some event-related data. We developed an early, novel post-arrest illness severity score to predict survival, good outcome and development of multiple organ failure (MOF) after cardiac arrest.
Methods
Retrospective review of data from adults treated after in-hospital or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in a single tertiary care facility between 1/1/2005 and 12/31/2009. In addition to clinical data, initial illness severity was measured using serial organ function assessment (SOFA) scores and full outline of unresponsiveness (FOUR) scores at hospital or intensive care unit arrival. Outcomes were hospital mortality, good outcome (discharge to home or rehabilitation) and development of multiple organ failure (MOF). Single-variable logistic regression followed by Chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) were used to determine predictors of outcome. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the independent association between predictors and each outcome. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used to evaluate goodness of fit. The n-fold method was used to cross-validate each CHAID analysis and the difference between the misclassification risk estimates were used to determine model fit.
Results
Complete data from 457/495 (92%) subjects identified distinct categories of illness severity using combined FOUR motor and brainstem subscales, and combined SOFA cardiovascular and respiratory subscales: I. Awake; II. Moderate coma without cardiorespiratory failure; III. Moderate coma with cardiorespiratory failure; and IV. Severe coma. Survival was independently associated with category (I: OR 58.65; 95% CI 27.78, 123.82; II: OR 14.60; 95% CI 7.34, 29.02; III: OR 10.58; 95% CI 4.86, 23.00). Category was also similarly associated with good outcome and development of MOF. The proportion of subjects in each category changed over time.
Conclusions
Initial illness severity explains much of the variation in cardiac arrest outcome. This model provides prognostic information at hospital arrival and may be used to stratify patients in future studies.
doi:10.1016/j.resuscitation.2011.06.024
PMCID: PMC3196030  PMID: 21756969
7.  Mechanical Circulatory Support for End-Stage Heart Failure in Repaired and Palliated Congenital Heart Disease 
Current Cardiology Reviews  2011;7(2):102-109.
Approximately one in one hundred children is born with congenital heart disease. Most can be managed with corrective or palliative surgery but a small group will develop severe heart failure, leaving cardiac transplantation as the ultimate treatment option. Unfortunately, due to the inadequate number of available donor organs, only a small number of patients can benefit from this therapy, and mortality remains high for pediatric patients awaiting heart transplantation, especially compared to adults. The purpose of this review is to describe the potential role of mechanical circulatory support in this context and to review current experience. For patients with congenital heart disease, ventricular assist devices are most commonly used as a bridge to cardiac transplantation, an application which has been shown to have several important advantages over medical therapy alone or support with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, including improved survival to transplant, less exposure to blood products with less immune sensitization, and improved organ function. While these devices may improve wait list mortality, the chronic shortage of donor organs for children is likely to remain a problem into the foreseeable future. Therefore, there is great interest in the development of mechanical ventricular assist devices as potential destination therapy for congenital heart disease patients with end-stage heart failure. This review first discusses the experience with the currently available ventricular assist devices in children with congenital heart disease, and then follows to discuss what devices are under development and may reach the bedside soon.
doi:10.2174/157340311797484222
PMCID: PMC3197085  PMID: 22548033
Mechanical circulatory support; Congenital heart disease; end-stage heart failure; pediatric heart transplantation; pediatrics; extracorporeal life support.
8.  Ischemic Necrosis of the Tongue in Patients With Cardiogenic Shock 
The Laryngoscope  2010;120(7):1345-1349.
Objectives/Hypothesis
Ischemic necrosis of the tongue is a rare entity generally associated with vasculitis. Critically ill patients with shock might experience hypoperfusion of head and neck end organs including the tongue.
Study Design
Retrospective analysis of hospital charts.
Methods
Case histories and photographs of five patients who developed ischemic tongue necrosis in the context of cardiogenic shock.
Results
Five critically ill patients in our institution’s cardiothoracic intensive care unit developed ischemic necrosis of the tongue. All five patients experienced protracted courses of profound cardiogenic shock requiring high-dose vasopressor support and urgent cardiac surgery. Three patients required intraaortic balloon pumps. All patients had concomitant signs of poor end organ perfusion, including lower extremity ischemia and renal and hepatic failure. Ultimately, four of five patients died, with one patient surviving after sloughing of the entire oral tongue.
Conclusions
Ischemic necrosis of the oral tongue is an uncommon but perhaps under-reported manifestation of end organ hypoperfusion in shock, likely signifying poor prognosis.
doi:10.1002/lary.20974
PMCID: PMC3001120  PMID: 20564667
Tongue; necrosis; gangrene; ischemic; shock
9.  Treatment of hypophosphatemia in the intensive care unit: a review 
Critical Care  2010;14(4):R147.
Introduction
Currently no evidence-based guideline exists for the approach to hypophosphatemia in critically ill patients.
Methods
We performed a narrative review of the medical literature to identify the incidence, symptoms, and treatment of hypophosphatemia in critically ill patients. Specifically, we searched for answers to the questions whether correction of hypophosphatemia is associated with improved outcome, and whether a certain treatment strategy is superior.
Results
Incidence: hypophosphatemia is frequently encountered in the intensive care unit; and critically ill patients are at increased risk for developing hypophosphatemia due to the presence of multiple causal factors. Symptoms: hypophosphatemia may lead to a multitude of symptoms, including cardiac and respiratory failure. Treatment: hypophosphatemia is generally corrected when it is symptomatic or severe. However, although multiple studies confirm the efficacy and safety of intravenous phosphate administration, it remains uncertain when and how to correct hypophosphatemia. Outcome: in some studies, hypophosphatemia was associated with higher mortality; a paucity of randomized controlled evidence exists for whether correction of hypophosphatemia improves the outcome in critically ill patients.
Conclusions
Additional studies addressing the current approach to hypophosphatemia in critically ill patients are required. Studies should focus on the association between hypophosphatemia and morbidity and/or mortality, as well as the effect of correction of this electrolyte disorder.
doi:10.1186/cc9215
PMCID: PMC2945130  PMID: 20682049
10.  Total Circulatory Support with an LVAD in an Adolescent with a Previous Fontan Procedure 
Texas Heart Institute Journal  2005;32(3):402-404.
We report the case of a 14-year-old boy who developed ischemic contracture of the heart after open heart surgery to correct complex congenital heart disease. Because he had no cardiac function, an extracorporeal, continuous-flow device was used to support him until he was transferred to our institution. Shortly after his arrival, an implantable, long-term left ventricular assist device was implanted. The univentricular pump provided total cardiac support for this critically ill patient. After normalization of end-organ function, the patient underwent successful orthotopic cardiac transplantation.
PMCID: PMC1336720  PMID: 16392230
Adolescent; cardiac surgical procedures; congenital heart defects; Fontan procedure; heart-assist devices; heart transplantation; myocardial ischemia; univentricular support
11.  Outcomes following liver transplantation in intensive care unit patients 
World Journal of Hepatology  2013;5(1):26-32.
AIM: To determine feasibility of liver transplantation in patients from the intensive care unit (ICU) by estimating graft and patient survival.
METHODS: This single center retrospective study included 39 patients who had their first liver transplant directly from the intensive care unit and 927 non-ICU patients who were transplanted from hospital ward or home between January 2005 and December 2010.
RESULTS: In comparison to non-ICU patients, ICU patients had a higher model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) at transplant (median: 37 vs 20, P < 0.001). Fourteen out of 39 patients (36%) required vasopressor support immediately prior to liver transplantation (LT) with 6 patients (15%) requiring both vasopressin and norepinephrine. Sixteen ICU patients (41%) were ventilator dependent immediately prior to LT with 9 patients undergoing percutaneous tracheostomy prior to transplantation. Twenty-five ICU patients (64%) required dialysis preoperatively. At 1, 3 and 5 years after LT, graft survival was 76%, 68% and 62% in ICU patients vs 90%, 81% and 75% in non-ICU patients. Patient survival at 1, 3 and 5 years after LT was 78%, 70% and 65% in ICU patients vs 94%, 85% and 79% in non-ICU patients. When formally comparing graft survival and patient survival between ICU and non-ICU patients using Cox proportional hazards regression models, both graft survival [relative risk (RR): 1.94, 95%CI: 1.09-3.48, P = 0.026] and patient survival (RR: 2.32, 95%CI: 1.26-4.27, P = 0.007) were lower in ICU patients vs non-ICU patients in single variable analysis. These findings were consistent in multivariable analysis. Although not statistically significant, graft survival was worse in both patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (RR: 3.29, P = 0.056) and patients who received donor after cardiac death (DCD) grafts (RR: 3.38, P = 0.060). These findings reached statistical significance when considering patient survival, which was worse for patients with cryptogenic cirrhosis (RR: 3.97, P = 0.031) and patients who were transplanted with DCD livers (RR: 4.19, P = 0.033). Graft survival and patient survival were not significantly worse for patients on mechanical ventilation (RR: 0.91, P = 0.88 in graft loss; RR: 0.69, P = 0.56 in death) or patients on vasopressors (RR: 1.06, P = 0.93 in graft loss; RR: 1.24, P = 0.74 in death) immediately prior to LT. Trends toward lower graft survival and patient survival were observed for patients on dialysis immediately before LT, however these findings did not approach statistical significance (RR: 1.70, P = 0.43 in graft loss; RR: 1.46, P = 0.58 in death).
CONCLUSION: Although ICU patients when compared to non-ICU patients have lower survivals, outcomes are still acceptable. Pre-transplant ventilation, hemodialysis, and vasopressors were not associated with adverse outcomes.
doi:10.4254/wjh.v5.i1.26
PMCID: PMC3562723  PMID: 23383363
Donor pool; Donor outcomes; Onor after cardiac death grafts; Liver graft survival; Patient survival
12.  Admission factors associated with hospital mortality in patients with haematological malignancy admitted to UK adult, general critical care units: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database 
Critical Care  2009;13(4):R137.
Introduction
Patients with haematological malignancy admitted to intensive care have a high mortality. Adverse prognostic factors include the number of organ failures, invasive mechanical ventilation and previous bone marrow transplantation. Severity-of-illness scores may underestimate the mortality of critically ill patients with haematological malignancy. This study investigates the relationship between admission characteristics and outcome in patients with haematological malignancies admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, and assesses the performance of three severity-of-illness scores in this population.
Methods
A secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database was conducted on admissions to 178 adult, general ICUs in England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1995 and 2007. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with hospital mortality. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and ICNARC score were evaluated for discrimination (the ability to distinguish survivors from nonsurvivors); and the APACHE II, SAPS II and ICNARC mortality probabilities were evaluated for calibration (the accuracy of the estimated probability of survival).
Results
There were 7,689 eligible admissions. ICU mortality was 43.1% (3,312 deaths) and acute hospital mortality was 59.2% (4,239 deaths). ICU and hospital mortality increased with the number of organ failures on admission. Admission factors associated with an increased risk of death were bone marrow transplant, Hodgkin's lymphoma, severe sepsis, age, length of hospital stay prior to intensive care admission, tachycardia, low systolic blood pressure, tachypnoea, low Glasgow Coma Score, sedation, PaO2:FiO2, acidaemia, alkalaemia, oliguria, hyponatraemia, hypernatraemia, low haematocrit, and uraemia. The ICNARC model had the best discrimination of the three scores analysed, as assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, but all scores were poorly calibrated. APACHE II had the highest accuracy at predicting hospital mortality, with a standardised mortality ratio of 1.01. SAPS II and the ICNARC score both underestimated hospital mortality.
Conclusions
Increased hospital mortality is associated with the length of hospital stay prior to ICU admission and with severe sepsis, suggesting that, if appropriate, such patients should be treated aggressively with early ICU admission. A low haematocrit was associated with higher mortality and this relationship requires further investigation. The severity-of-illness scores assessed in this study had reasonable discriminative power, but none showed good calibration.
doi:10.1186/cc8016
PMCID: PMC2750195  PMID: 19706163
13.  Movement of criticall ill patients within hospital. 
British Medical Journal  1975;2(5968):417-419.
Critically ill patients were observed during routine movement inside the hospital to and from the intensive therapy unit. One patient a month suffered major cardiorespiratory collapse or death as a direct result of movement. Renewed bleeding of a pelvic fracture, cardiac arrhythmia, cardiac embarrassment due to a haemothorax, and cardiovascular decompensation were seen. It was difficult to continue treatment during movement, especially maintaining an airway or providing adequate intermittent positive pressure ventilation. Seventy postoperative patients suffered few ill effects on being moved. Greater awareness of the dangers of moving critically ill patients within hospital is needed. Thorough preparation for the move and adequate maintenance of treatment during movement requires the skill of experienced medical staff.
PMCID: PMC1681804  PMID: 1092402
14.  Adequate Systemic Perfusion Maintained by a CentriMag during Acute Heart Failure 
Texas Heart Institute Journal  2008;35(3):334-339.
Mechanical circulatory support during severe acute heart failure presents options for myocardial recovery or cardiac replacement. Short-term circulatory support with the newest generation of magnetically levitated centrifugal-flow pumps affords several potential advantages. Herein, we present our experience with such a pump—the CentriMag® (Levitronix LLC; Waltham, Mass) centrifugal-flow ventricular assist device—in 4 critically ill patients who were in cardiogenic shock. From November 2007 through March 2008, 3 patients were supported after cardiac surgery, and 1 after chronic heart failure worsened. Two patients were bridged to heart transplantation, and 2 died during support. Perfusion during support was evaluated in terms of serum lactic acid levels and oxygenation values. In all of the patients, the CentriMag's pump flow was adequate, and continuous mechanical ventilation support was provided. Lactic acid levels substantially improved with CentriMag support and were maintained at near-normal levels throughout. At the same time, arterial pH, PO2, and carbon dioxide levels remained within acceptable ranges. No thromboembolic events or mechanical failures occurred. Our experience indicates that short-term use of the CentriMag ventricular assist device during acute heart failure can restore and adequately support circulation until recovery or until the application of definitive therapy.
PMCID: PMC2565526  PMID: 18941648
Acute disease; equipment design; heart diseases/therapy; heart failure/therapy; heart-assist devices/standards; lactates; magnetics/therapeutic use; multiple organ failure/therapy; point-of-care systems; recovery of function; shock, cardiogenic/mortality/therapy; treatment outcome
15.  Route of nutrition has no effect on the development of infectious complications. 
BACKGROUND: Infection is a serious complication of nutritional support, causing a high rate of mortality and morbidity. Critically ill patients having nutritional support are prone to infectious complications. Questions regarding the effects of the route of nutrition in infectious complications have been asked. We aimed to determine the relationship between the route of nutrition and the risk of developing infectious complications in severely ill patients on nutritional support in an intensive care unit. METHODS: A retrospective review was performed on the files of 144 severely ill patients who had either enteral or parenteral nutrition during follow-up in an intensive care unit. The primary diagnoses of patients were heterogenous. RESULTS: Sixty-eight (35.8%) of them acquired novel infections during the hospitalization period. Forty-nine and 19 of the 68 infected patients had enteral and parenteral nutrition support, respectively. Seventy-six (40%) of the patients were free of infection. Fifty-one of 76 infection-free patients had enteral nutrition support, and 25 of them had parenteral nutrition support. Pulmonary infections, urinary tract infections, catheter infections and septicemia were the most frequent types of infectious complications. There was no significant difference in the rate of infectious complications between enteral nutrition and parenteral nutrition groups (p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: We conclude that the route of the nutritional support in severely ill patients having nutritional support in an intensive care unit does not affect the rate of infectious complications. We think that comorbid medical conditions and the need of intensive care unit support are more important parameters that determine the risk of development of infectious complications.
PMCID: PMC2569691  PMID: 17225842
16.  Effective use of regional intensive therapy units. 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  1990;300(6717):79-81.
OBJECTIVE--To determine the effectiveness of regional intensive therapy units. DESIGN--Retrospective and prospective study of patients transferred to a regional intensive therapy unit over four years. SETTING--Glasgow regional intensive therapy unit. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Severity of illness was assessed at the time of referral to the unit with the acute physiological and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) scoring system. Mortality was calculated. RESULTS--A significant association was found between increasing duration of illness before transfer and mortality, which was independent of the severity of illness. Mortality also varied depending on the referring hospital. CONCLUSIONS--When transfer of critically ill patients is required this should be done as early as possible to make best use of the services available. The mortality of patients transferred after 10 days casts doubt on whether further aggressive intensive therapy is appropriate.
PMCID: PMC1661990  PMID: 2105778
17.  Heterotopic Heart Transplantation 
Texas Heart Institute Journal  1988;15(3):159-162.
From January 1986 to September 1987, we performed 27 orthotopic and 10 heterotopic cardiac transplantations at our institution. Of the 10 heterotopic transplantation recipients, 9 were men; ages ranged from 36 to 65 years; and indications for transplantation were ischemic cardiomyopathy in 8 patients and dilatative cardiomyopathy in 2 patients. Five of the 10 heterotopic transplantation recipients received donor hearts under emergency conditions, when no hearts of suitable size for orthotopic transplantation were available. In 3 of the 10 heterotopic procedures, we performed pure left ventricular (rather than biventricular) bypass in patients with chronic conditions requiring only aneurysmectomy, or aneurysmectomy in combination with an aortocoronary graft.
During postoperative hospitalization, the following complications occurred in the 10 heterotopic-transplantation recipients: 10 infectious episodes in 6 patients; 1 episode of severe graft rejection; and 1 episode of severe gastrointestinal bleeding. All these complications were overcome, and no patient in the heterotopic-transplantation group died. Fifteen months postoperatively, one male in the group lost his graft, but his own heart had by then recovered function, despite dilatative cardiomyopathy. More commonly, late investigation (6 months or longer after transplantation) has yielded ambiguous overall evaluations of pump performance of the recipients' native hearts, showing slight improvement in some instances and further deterioration in others. We conclude that heterotopic heart transplantation is a life-saving procedure in urgent cases when only small donor hearts are available, and that it offers a good chance of hemodynamic and functional improvement not only in emergency cases, but also in cases of chronic cardiomyopathy when there is salvageable myocardium. (Texas Heart Institute Journal 1988;15:159-162)
Images
PMCID: PMC324818  PMID: 15227245
Heart enlargement; heart failure, congestive; cardiomyopathy, hypertrophic; coronary disease; ischemic heart disease; tissue donors; organ procurement; heart donor, matching; graft rejection, cardiac; heart transplantation, heterotopic; heart transplantation, orthotopic
18.  Triple-Combination Antiviral Drug for Pandemic H1N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Critically Ill Patients on Mechanical Ventilation ▿ § 
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy  2011;55(12):5703-5709.
A recent in vitro study showed that the three compounds of antiviral drugs with different mechanisms of action (amantadine, ribavirin, and oseltamivir) could result in synergistic antiviral activity against influenza virus. However, no clinical studies have evaluated the efficacy and safety of combination antiviral therapy in patients with severe influenza illness. A total of 245 adult patients who were critically ill with confirmed pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 (pH1N1) virus infection and were admitted to one of the intensive care units of 28 hospitals in Korea were reviewed. Patients who required ventilator support and received either triple-combination antiviral drug (TCAD) therapy or oseltamivir monotherapy were analyzed. A total of 127 patients were included in our analysis. Among them, 24 patients received TCAD therapy, and 103 patients received oseltamivir monotherapy. The 14-day mortality was 17% in the TCAD group and 35% in the oseltamivir group (P = 0.08), and the 90-day mortality was 46% in the TCAD group and 59% in the oseltamivir group (P = 0.23). None of the toxicities attributable to antiviral drugs occurred in either group of our study, including hemolytic anemia and hepatic toxicities related to the use of ribavirin. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds ratio for the association of TCAD with 90-day mortality was 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.24 to 1.42; P = 0.24). Although this study was retrospective and did not provide virologic outcomes, our results suggest that the treatment outcome of the triple combination of amantadine, ribavirin, and oseltamivir was comparable to that of oseltamivir monotherapy.
doi:10.1128/AAC.05529-11
PMCID: PMC3232815  PMID: 21968371
19.  Containing Costs in the Treatment of Congenital Heart Disease 
Western Journal of Medicine  1984;141(1):123-126.
In the Congenital Heart Program at San Diego Children's Hospital, alterations in medical practice have reduced costs without impairing quality or access. Pediatric cardiac catheterization was done in 483 consecutive elective patients without overnight hospital stay. Hospital readmission was required in one patient for psoas tendinitis. Avoiding overnight hospital stay minimized attendant risks of hospital care, lessened psychosocial trauma and reduced the average hospital bill by $493 (29%). Hospital stay was also reduced for elective surgical correction of congenital heart disease on a case-by-case basis. Review of 151 consecutive cases (1978 through 1982) showed a decrease in both preoperative days in hospital and postoperative days in an intensive care unit. The duration of the postoperative stay was shortened from 6.8 days in 1978-1979 to 4.4 days in 1982 (P <.05). No increase in morbidity and no mortality resulted from the shortened perioperative hospital stay. Financial savings from this process averaged $991 per procedure.
Diagnostic tests were reassessed and many precatheterization laboratory tests were eliminated. Without change in new patients seen or surgical volume, the use of cardiac catheterization decreased from 241 procedures in 1981 to 161 in 1982 and the number of operations without catheterization increased (11 to 22, 1981 to 1982). No increase in surgical morbidity or mortality was found comparing those diagnosed only by echocardiography with those who had preoperative cardiac catheterization. The decrease of 80 catheterizations in one year resulted in a savings of $188,800.
True cost containment (reducing cost without reducing quality) can be accomplished in congenital heart programs. Similar cost containments in other disciplines may also be achieved.
Images
PMCID: PMC1021690  PMID: 6475038
20.  Limiting Severe Outcomes and Impact on Intensive Care Units of Moderate-Intermediate 2009 Pandemic Influenza: Role of Infectious Diseases Units 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(8):e42940.
Purpose
The rate of severe outcomes of patients with 2009 pandemic (A/H1N1) influenza (2009pI) hospitalized in non-intensive care units (ICUs) has not been defined thus far. This study aims to assess the efficacy of the management of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) of moderate intermediate severity in an infectious diseases unit (IDU) during the first wave of 2009pI and its influence on the burden of ICUs.
Methods
All patients hospitalized from October 27, 2009, to February 5, 2010, with ILI were included in this prospective observational study. The IDU was organized and the staff was trained to provide intermediate care; patients were transferred to the ICU only if they required invasive ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or advanced cardiovascular support. Demographic data, clinical presentation, coexisting medical conditions, and laboratory and radiological findings were recorded and analyzed, as well as treatment and outcome data.
Results
Overall, 108 patients (median age 36 years [IQR 27–54], 57.4% males) including 66.7% with ≥1 risk factor for severe influenza, 47.2% with confirmed 2009pI by RT-PCR and 63.9% with pneumonia, were enrolled in the study. All subjects received intravenous fluids and 83.3% were administered oseltamivir, 96.3% antibacterials, 19.4% oxygen therapy without ventilatory support, and 10.2% non-invasive ventilation. A total of 106 (98.1%) subjects were discharged after a 6-day median hospital stay [IQR 4–9]. Two patients (1.9%) were transferred to the ICU. There were no deaths.
Conclusions
These results suggest that the aggressive treatment of patients with moderate intermediate severity 2009 pandemic ILI in non-ICU wards may result in a low rate of severe outcomes and brief hospitalization. IDUs, if properly organized for intermediate care, may efficiently provide correct disease management, in addition to complying with infection control requirements, thus reducing the burden of the pandemic on ICUs. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the outcome of patients with moderate intermediate 2009pI in different non-ICU settings.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0042940
PMCID: PMC3419232  PMID: 22905188
21.  Hospital mortality is associated with ICU admission time 
Intensive Care Medicine  2010;36(10):1765-1771.
Introduction
Previous studies have shown that patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) after “office hours” are more likely to die. However these results have been challenged by numerous other studies. We therefore analysed this possible relationship between ICU admission time and in-hospital mortality in The Netherlands.
Methods
This article relates time of ICU admission to hospital mortality for all patients who were included in the Dutch national ICU registry (National Intensive Care Evaluation, NICE) from 2002 to 2008. We defined office hours as 08:00–22:00 hours during weekdays and 09:00–18:00 hours during weekend days. The weekend was defined as from Saturday 00:00 hours until Sunday 24:00 hours. We corrected hospital mortality for illness severity at admission using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, reason for admission, admission type, age and gender.
Results
A total of 149,894 patients were included in this analysis. The relative risk (RR) for mortality outside office hours was 1.059 (1.031–1.088). Mortality varied with time but was consistently higher than expected during “off hours” and lower during office hours. There was no significant difference in mortality between different weekdays of Monday to Thursday, but mortality increased slightly on Friday (RR 1.046; 1.001–1.092). During the weekend the RR was 1.103 (1.071–1.136) in comparison with the rest of the week.
Conclusions
Hospital mortality in The Netherlands appears to be increased outside office hours and during the weekends, even when corrected for illness severity at admission. However, incomplete adjustment for certain confounders might still play an important role. Further research is needed to fully explain this difference.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00134-010-1918-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
doi:10.1007/s00134-010-1918-1
PMCID: PMC2940016  PMID: 20549184
Hospital mortality; Admission time; ICU; Severity of illness; APACHE II
22.  Prediction of cardiac arrest in critically ill patients presenting to the emergency department using a machine learning score incorporating heart rate variability compared with the modified early warning score 
Critical Care  2012;16(3):R108.
Introduction
A key aim of triage is to identify those with high risk of cardiac arrest, as they require intensive monitoring, resuscitation facilities, and early intervention. We aim to validate a novel machine learning (ML) score incorporating heart rate variability (HRV) for triage of critically ill patients presenting to the emergency department by comparing the area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity with the modified early warning score (MEWS).
Methods
We conducted a prospective observational study of critically ill patients (Patient Acuity Category Scale 1 and 2) in an emergency department of a tertiary hospital. At presentation, HRV parameters generated from a 5-minute electrocardiogram recording are incorporated with age and vital signs to generate the ML score for each patient. The patients are then followed up for outcomes of cardiac arrest or death.
Results
From June 2006 to June 2008 we enrolled 925 patients. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for ML scores in predicting cardiac arrest within 72 hours is 0.781, compared with 0.680 for MEWS (difference in AUROC: 0.101, 95% confidence interval: 0.006 to 0.197). As for in-hospital death, the area under the curve for ML score is 0.741, compared with 0.693 for MEWS (difference in AUROC: 0.048, 95% confidence interval: -0.023 to 0.119). A cutoff ML score ≥ 60 predicted cardiac arrest with a sensitivity of 84.1%, specificity of 72.3% and negative predictive value of 98.8%. A cutoff MEWS ≥ 3 predicted cardiac arrest with a sensitivity of 74.4%, specificity of 54.2% and negative predictive value of 97.8%.
Conclusion
We found ML scores to be more accurate than the MEWS in predicting cardiac arrest within 72 hours. There is potential to develop bedside devices for risk stratification based on cardiac arrest prediction.
doi:10.1186/cc11396
PMCID: PMC3580666  PMID: 22715923
23.  Is cytomegalovirus reactivation increasing the mortality of patients with severe sepsis? 
Critical Care  2011;15(2):138.
Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is a ubiquitous virus present in approximately two-thirds of the healthy population. This virus rarely causes an active disease in healthy individuals, but it is among the most common opportunistic infections in immunocompromised patients such as solid organ transplant recipients, patients receiving chemotherapy for cancer or patients with human immunodeficiency virus. Critically ill patients who are immunocompetent before intensive care unit admission may also become more prone to develop active CMV infection if they have prolonged hospitalizations, high disease severity, and severe sepsis. The development of active CMV infection in these critically ill patients has been associated with a significantly higher risk of death in several previous studies. The present issue of Critical Care brings a new study by Heininger and colleagues in which the authors found that patients with severe sepsis who developed active CMV infection had significantly longer intensive care unit and hospital stays, prolonged mechanical ventilation, but no changes in mortality compared to patients without CMV infection. We discuss the possible reasons for their findings (for example, selection bias and low (20%) statistical power to detect mortality endpoints), and also perform an update of our previous meta-analysis with the addition of Heininger and colleagues' study to verify whether the higher mortality rate with CMV holds. Our updated meta-analysis with approximately 1,000 patients shows that active CMV infection continues to be associated with a significant 81% higher mortality rate than that in critically ill patients without active CMV infection.
doi:10.1186/cc10093
PMCID: PMC3219353  PMID: 21457496
24.  Current practice in transferring critically ill patients among hospitals in the west of Scotland. 
BMJ : British Medical Journal  1990;300(6717):85-87.
OBJECTIVE--To identify the requirements of an interhospital transfer service for critically ill patients. DESIGN--Retrospective survey of the current functions of a specialist interhospital transfer team from data collected at the time of transfer and from records of intensive care unit. SETTING--Mobile intensive care unit based at a tertiary referral centre, which serves the west of Scotland. PATIENTS--All critically ill patients (378) transferred between hospitals by the unit from 1986 to 1988. RESULTS--365 Patients were transferred by road and 13 by air. There was a wide variation in age (range 6 weeks to 87 years), diagnosis, reason for transfer, support required, and distance travelled. Most patients (232) were transferred for respiratory or cardiovascular support; 100 were trauma cases. 300 Patients (79%) were mechanically ventilated during transfer. No patient died in transit, although the eventual mortality was 28% (105 patients). Mortality was significantly higher in patients transferred from hospitals with intensive care units than from those without (38% (125 patients) v 23% (253); p less than 0.005). IMPLICATIONS--Safe interhospital transfer of critically ill patients is feasible; the high eventual mortality in some patient groups emphasises the need for accurate prediction of outcome if inappropriate transfer is to be avoided. The findings may help in organising secondary transfer services in future.
PMCID: PMC1661973  PMID: 2105781
25.  Estimating Long-Term Survival of Critically Ill Patients: The PREDICT Model 
PLoS ONE  2008;3(9):e3226.
Background
Long-term survival outcome of critically ill patients is important in assessing effectiveness of new treatments and making treatment decisions. We developed a prognostic model for estimation of long-term survival of critically ill patients.
Methodology and Principal Findings
This was a retrospective linked data cohort study involving 11,930 critically ill patients who survived more than 5 days in a university teaching hospital in Western Australia. Older age, male gender, co-morbidities, severe acute illness as measured by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II predicted mortality, and more days of vasopressor or inotropic support, mechanical ventilation, and hemofiltration within the first 5 days of intensive care unit admission were associated with a worse long-term survival up to 15 years after the onset of critical illness. Among these seven pre-selected predictors, age (explained 50% of the variability of the model, hazard ratio [HR] between 80 and 60 years old = 1.95) and co-morbidity (explained 27% of the variability, HR between Charlson co-morbidity index 5 and 0 = 2.15) were the most important determinants. A nomogram based on the pre-selected predictors is provided to allow estimation of the median survival time and also the 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year survival probabilities for a patient. The discrimination (adjusted c-index = 0.757, 95% confidence interval 0.745–0.769) and calibration of this prognostic model were acceptable.
Significance
Age, gender, co-morbidities, severity of acute illness, and the intensity and duration of intensive care therapy can be used to estimate long-term survival of critically ill patients. Age and co-morbidity are the most important determinants of long-term prognosis of critically ill patients.
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0003226
PMCID: PMC2528946  PMID: 18797505

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