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1.  Measuring the Performance of Vaccination Programs Using Cross-Sectional Surveys: A Likelihood Framework and Retrospective Analysis 
PLoS Medicine  2011;8(10):e1001110.
Justin Lessler and colleagues describe a method that estimates the fraction of a population accessible to vaccination activities, and they apply it to measles vaccination in three African countries: Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone.
Background
The performance of routine and supplemental immunization activities is usually measured by the administrative method: dividing the number of doses distributed by the size of the target population. This method leads to coverage estimates that are sometimes impossible (e.g., vaccination of 102% of the target population), and are generally inconsistent with the proportion found to be vaccinated in Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). We describe a method that estimates the fraction of the population accessible to vaccination activities, as well as within-campaign inefficiencies, thus providing a consistent estimate of vaccination coverage.
Methods and Findings
We developed a likelihood framework for estimating the effective coverage of vaccination programs using cross-sectional surveys of vaccine coverage combined with administrative data. We applied our method to measles vaccination in three African countries: Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone, using data from each country's most recent DHS survey and administrative coverage data reported to the World Health Organization. We estimate that 93% (95% CI: 91, 94) of the population in Ghana was ever covered by any measles vaccination activity, 77% (95% CI: 78, 81) in Madagascar, and 69% (95% CI: 67, 70) in Sierra Leone. “Within-activity” inefficiencies were estimated to be low in Ghana, and higher in Sierra Leone and Madagascar. Our model successfully fits age-specific vaccination coverage levels seen in DHS data, which differ markedly from those predicted by naïve extrapolation from country-reported and World Health Organization–adjusted vaccination coverage.
Conclusions
Combining administrative data with survey data substantially improves estimates of vaccination coverage. Estimates of the inefficiency of past vaccination activities and the proportion not covered by any activity allow us to more accurately predict the results of future activities and provide insight into the ways in which vaccination programs are failing to meet their goals.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Immunization (vaccination) is a proven, cost-effective tool for controlling life-threatening infectious diseases. It provides protection against infectious diseases by priming the human immune system to respond quickly and efficiently to bacteria, viruses, and other disease-causing organisms (pathogens). Whenever the human body is exposed to a pathogen, the immune system—a network of cells, tissues, and organs—mounts an attack against the foreign invader. Importantly, the immune system “learns” from the encounter, and the next time the body is exposed to the same pathogen, the immune system responds much faster to the threat. Immunization exposes the body to a very small amount of a pathogen, thereby safely providing protection against subsequent infection. More than two billion deaths are averted every year through routine childhood immunization and supplemental immunization activities (mass vaccination campaigns designed to increase vaccination coverage where immunization goals have not been reached by routine vaccination). Indeed, these two types of vaccination activities have eliminated smallpox from the world and are close to doing the same for several other infectious diseases.
Why Was This Study Done?
To reduce deaths from infectious diseases even further, it is important to know the proportion of the population reached by vaccination activities. At present, countries report vaccination coverage to the World Health Organization (WHO) that is calculated by dividing the number of vaccine doses delivered during the activity by the size of the target population. However, estimates arrived at through this “administrative method” do not account for vaccine doses that were not actually delivered, and can only reflect a single vaccination activity, which prevents us from identifying populations that may be systematically missed by all vaccination activities (for example, children living in remote areas, or children whose parents refuse vaccination). Moreover, estimates of coverage obtained by the administrative method rarely agree with estimates obtained through cross-sectional surveys such as Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), which are household surveys of family circumstances and health undertaken at a single time point. In this study, the researchers developed a method for measuring the performance of vaccination activities that estimates the fraction of the population accessible to these activities and within-activity inefficiencies. They then tested their method by applying it to measles vaccination in three African countries; before 1980, measles killed about 2.6 million children worldwide every year, but vaccination activities have reduced this death toll to about 164,000 per year.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers developed a set of formulae (a “likelihood framework”) to estimate the effective coverage of vaccination activities using data on vaccine coverage from cross-sectional surveys and administrative data. They then applied their method to measles vaccination in Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone using data obtained in each country's most recent DHS survey and administrative data reported to WHO. The researchers estimate that 93%, 77%, and 65% of the target populations in Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone, respectively, were ever covered by any vaccination activity, and that inefficiencies within vaccination activities were low for Ghana, but higher for Madagascar and Sierra Leone. Consequently, the researchers' estimates of vaccination activity coverage were substantially lower than the administrative estimates for Madagascar and Sierra Leone but only slightly lower than that for Ghana. Finally, the researchers' estimates of routine vaccination coverage were generally lower than WHO-adjusted estimates but broadly agreed with age-specific vaccination coverage levels from DHS surveys.
What Do These Findings Mean?
Although the accuracy of the estimates provided by this likelihood framework depends on the assumptions included in the framework and the quality of the data fed into it, these findings show that, by combining administrative data with survey data, estimates of vaccine coverage can be substantially improved. By providing estimates of both the inefficiency of past vaccination activities and the proportion of the target population inaccessible to any vaccination activity, this method should help public health experts predict the results of future activities and help them understand why some vaccination programs fail to meet their goals. Importantly, knowing both the size of the inaccessible population and the inefficiency level of past programs makes it possible to estimate the effect of providing additional doses of vaccine on vaccination coverage. Finally, the application of this new method might help individual countries understand how susceptibility to specific infectious diseases is building up in their population and enable them to avoid outbreaks similar to the measles outbreaks that have recently occurred in several African countries.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001080.
WHO provides information about immunization and details of its Expanded Program on Immunization and its Global Immunization Vision and Strategy; WHO Africa provides details about measles immunization in Africa; a photo story about mass measles vaccination in Côte d’Ivoire is available (some material in several languages)
The UK National Health Service Choices website provides information for members of the public about immunization
The Measles Initiative is a collaborative effort that aims to reduce global measles mortality through mass vaccination campaigns and by strengthening routine immunization; its website includes information on measles and measles vaccination, including photos and videos of vaccination activities
MedlinePlus provides links to additional resources about immunization and about measles (in English and Spanish)
The charity website Healthtalkonline has interviews with UK parents about their experience of immunizing their children
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001110
PMCID: PMC3201935  PMID: 22039353
2.  Efficacy of Neonatal HBV Vaccination on Liver Cancer and Other Liver Diseases over 30-Year Follow-up of the Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial 
PLoS Medicine  2014;11(12):e1001774.
In a 30-year follow-up of the Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study, Yawei Zhang and colleagues examine the effects of neonatal vaccination on liver diseases.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Background
Neonatal hepatitis B vaccination has been implemented worldwide to prevent hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. Its long-term protective efficacy on primary liver cancer (PLC) and other liver diseases has not been fully examined.
Methods and Findings
The Qidong Hepatitis B Intervention Study, a population-based, cluster randomized, controlled trial between 1985 and 1990 in Qidong, China, included 39,292 newborns who were randomly assigned to the vaccination group in which 38,366 participants completed the HBV vaccination series and 34,441 newborns who were randomly assigned to the control group in which the participants received neither a vaccine nor a placebo. However, 23,368 (67.8%) participants in the control group received catch-up vaccination at age 10–14 years. By December 2013, a total of 3,895 (10.2%) in the vaccination group and 3,898 (11.3%) in the control group were lost to follow-up. Information on PLC incidence and liver disease mortality were collected through linkage of all remaining cohort members to a well-established population-based tumor registry until December 31, 2013. Two cross-sectional surveys on HBV surface antigen (HBsAg) seroprevalence were conducted in 1996–2000 and 2008–2012. The participation rates of the two surveys were 57.5% (21,770) and 50.7% (17,204) in the vaccination group and 36.3% (12,184) and 58.6% (17,395) in the control group, respectively. Using intention-to-treat analysis, we found that the incidence rate of PLC and the mortality rates of severe end-stage liver diseases and infant fulminant hepatitis were significantly lower in the vaccination group than the control group with efficacies of 84% (95% CI 23%–97%), 70% (95% CI 15%–89%), and 69% (95% CI 34%–85%), respectively. The estimated efficacy of catch-up vaccination on HBsAg seroprevalence in early adulthood was 21% (95% CI 10%–30%), substantially weaker than that of the neonatal vaccination (72%, 95% CI 68%–75%). Receiving a booster at age 10–14 years decreased HBsAg seroprevalence if participants were born to HBsAg-positive mothers (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.68, 95% CI 0.47–0.97). Limitations to consider in interpreting the study results include the small number of individuals with PLC, participants lost to follow-up, and the large proportion of participants who did not provide serum samples at follow-up.
Conclusions
Neonatal HBV vaccination was found to significantly decrease HBsAg seroprevalence in childhood through young adulthood and subsequently reduce the risk of PLC and other liver diseases in young adults in rural China. The findings underscore the importance of neonatal HBV vaccination. Our results also suggest that an adolescence booster should be considered in individuals born to HBsAg-positive mothers and who have completed the HBV neonatal vaccination series.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Hepatitis B is a life-threatening liver infection caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV). HBV, which is transmitted through contact with the blood or other bodily fluids of an infected person, can cause both acute (short-term) and chronic (long-term) liver infections. Acute infections rarely cause any symptoms and more than 90% of adults who become infected with HBV (usually through sexual intercourse with an infected partner or through the use of contaminated needles) are virus-free within 6 months. However, in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia, and other regions where HBV infection is common, HBV is usually transmitted from mother to child at birth or between individuals during early childhood and, unfortunately, most infants who are infected with HBV during the first year of life and many children who are infected before the age of 6 years develop a chronic HBV infection. Such infections can cause liver cancer, liver cirrhosis (scarring of the liver), and other fatal liver diseases. In addition, HBV infection around the time of birth can cause infant fulminant hepatitis, a rare but frequently fatal condition.
Why Was This Study Done?
HBV infections kill about 780,000 people worldwide annually but can be prevented by neonatal vaccination—immunization against HBV at birth. A vaccine against HBV became available in 1982 and many countries now include HBV vaccination at birth followed by additional vaccine doses during early childhood in their national vaccination programs. But, although HBV vaccination has greatly reduced the rate of chronic HBV infection, the protective efficacy of neonatal HBV vaccination against liver diseases has not been fully examined. Here, the researchers investigate how well neonatal HBV vaccination protects against primary liver cancer and other liver diseases by undertaking a 30-year follow-up of the Qidong Hepatitis B intervention Study (QHBIS). This cluster randomized controlled trial of neonatal HBV vaccination was conducted between 1983 and 1990 in Qidong County, a rural area in China with a high incidence of HBV-related primary liver cancer and other liver diseases. A cluster randomized controlled trial compares outcomes in groups of people (towns in this study) chosen at random to receive an intervention or a control treatment (here, vaccination or no vaccination; this study design was ethically acceptable during the 1980s when HBV vaccination was unavailable in rural China but would be unethical nowadays).
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The QHBIS assigned nearly 80,000 newborns to receive either a full course of HBV vaccinations (the vaccination group) or no vaccination (the control group); two-thirds of the control group participants received a catch-up vaccination at age 10–14 years. The researchers obtained data on how many trial participants developed primary liver cancer or died from a liver disease during the follow-up period from a population-based tumor registry. They also obtained information on HBsAg seroprevalence—the presence of HBsAg (an HBV surface protein) in the blood of the participants, an indicator of current HBV infection—from surveys undertaken in1996–2000 and 2008–2012. The researchers estimate that the protective efficacy of vaccination was 84% for primary liver cancer (vaccination reduced the incidence of liver cancer by 84%), 70% for death from liver diseases, and 69% for the incidence of infant fulminant hepatitis. Overall, the efficacy of catch-up vaccination on HBsAg seroprevalence in early adulthood was weak compared with neonatal vaccination (21% versus 72%). Notably, receiving a booster vaccination at age 10–14 years decreased HBsAg seroprevalence among participants who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers.
What Do These Findings Mean?
The small number of cases of primary liver cancer and other liver diseases observed during the 30-year follow-up, the length of follow-up, and the availability of incomplete data on seroprevalence all limit the accuracy of these findings. Nevertheless, these findings indicate that neonatal HBV vaccination greatly reduced HBsAg seroprevalence (an indicator of current HBV infection) in childhood and young adulthood and subsequently reduced the risk of liver cancer and other liver diseases in young adults. These findings therefore support the importance of neonatal HBV vaccination. In addition, they suggest that booster vaccination during adolescence might consolidate the efficacy of neonatal vaccination among individuals who were born to HBsAg-positive mothers, a suggestion that needs to be confirmed in randomized controlled trials before booster vaccines are introduced into vaccination programs.
Additional Information
Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001774.
The World Health Organization provides a fact sheet about hepatitis B (available in several languages) and information about hepatitis B vaccination
The World Hepatitis Alliance (an international not-for-profit, non-governmental organization) provides information about viral hepatitis, including some personal stories about hepatitis B from Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Malawi
The UK National Health Service Choices website provides information about hepatitis B
The not-for-profit British Liver Trust provides information about hepatitis B, including Hepatitis B: PATH B, an interactive educational resource designed to improve the lives of people living with chronic hepatitis B
MedlinePlus provides links to other resources about hepatitis B (in English and Spanish)
Information about the Qidong Hepatitis B intervention Study is available
Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides links about hepatitis B prevention in Chinese
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001774
PMCID: PMC4280122  PMID: 25549238
3.  A Population-Based Evaluation of a Publicly Funded, School-Based HPV Vaccine Program in British Columbia, Canada: Parental Factors Associated with HPV Vaccine Receipt 
PLoS Medicine  2010;7(5):e1000270.
Analysis of a telephone survey by Gina Ogilvie and colleagues identifies the parental factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake in a school-based program in Canada.
Background
Information on factors that influence parental decisions for actual human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine receipt in publicly funded, school-based HPV vaccine programs for girls is limited. We report on the level of uptake of the first dose of the HPV vaccine, and determine parental factors associated with receipt of the HPV vaccine, in a publicly funded school-based HPV vaccine program in British Columbia, Canada.
Methods and Findings
All parents of girls enrolled in grade 6 during the academic year of September 2008–June 2009 in the province of British Columbia were eligible to participate. Eligible households identified through the provincial public health information system were randomly selected and those who consented completed a validated survey exploring factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to calculate adjusted odds ratios to identify the factors that were associated with parents' decision to vaccinate their daughter(s) against HPV. 2,025 parents agreed to complete the survey, and 65.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 63.1–67.1) of parents in the survey reported that their daughters received the first dose of the HPV vaccine. In the same school-based vaccine program, 88.4% (95% CI 87.1–89.7) consented to the hepatitis B vaccine, and 86.5% (95% CI 85.1–87.9) consented to the meningococcal C vaccine. The main reasons for having a daughter receive the HPV vaccine were the effectiveness of the vaccine (47.9%), advice from a physician (8.7%), and concerns about daughter's health (8.4%). The main reasons for not having a daughter receive the HPV vaccine were concerns about HPV vaccine safety (29.2%), preference to wait until the daughter is older (15.6%), and not enough information to make an informed decision (12.6%). In multivariate analysis, overall attitudes to vaccines, the impact of the HPV vaccine on sexual practices, and childhood vaccine history were predictive of parents having a daughter receive the HPV vaccine in a publicly funded school-based HPV vaccine program. By contrast, having a family with two parents, having three or more children, and having more education was associated with a decreased likelihood of having a daughter receive the HPV vaccine.
Conclusions
This study is, to our knowledge, one of the first population-based assessments of factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake in a publicly funded school-based program worldwide. Policy makers need to consider that even with the removal of financial and health care barriers, parents, who are key decision makers in the uptake of this vaccine, are still hesitant to have their daughters receive the HPV vaccine, and strategies to ensure optimal HPV vaccine uptake need to be employed.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
About 10% of cancers in women occur in the cervix, the structure that connects the womb to the vagina. Every year, globally, more than a quarter of a million women die because of cervical cancer, which only occurs after the cervix has been infected with a human papillomavirus (HPV) through sexual intercourse. There are many types of HPV, a virus that infects the skin and the mucosa (the moist membranes that line various parts of the body, including the cervix). Although most people become infected with HPV at some time in their life, most never know they are infected. However, some HPV types cause harmless warts on the skin or around the genital area and several—in particular, HPV 16 and HPV 18, so-called high-risk HPVs—can cause cervical cancer. HPV infections are usually cleared by the immune system, but about 10% of women infected with a high-risk HPV develop a long-term infection that puts them at risk of developing cervical cancer.
Why Was This Study Done?
Screening programs have greatly reduced cervical cancer deaths in developed countries in recent decades by detecting the cancer early when it can be treated; but it would be better to prevent cervical cancer ever developing. Because HPV is necessary for the development of cervical cancer, vaccination of girls against HPV infection before the onset of sexual activity might be one way to do this. Scientists recently developed a vaccine that prevents infection with HPV 16 and HPV 18 (and with two HPVs that cause genital warts) and that should, therefore, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer. Publicly funded HPV vaccination programs are now planned or underway in several countries; but before girls can receive the HPV vaccine, parental consent is usually needed, so it is important to know what influences parental decisions about HPV vaccination. In this study, the researchers undertake a telephone survey to determine the uptake of the HPV vaccine by 11-year-old girls (grade 6) in British Columbia, Canada, and to determine the parental factors associated with vaccine uptake; British Columbia started a voluntary school-based HPV vaccine program in September 2008.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
In early 2009, the researchers contacted randomly selected parents of girls enrolled in grade 6 during the 2008–2009 academic year and asked them to complete a telephone survey that explored factors associated with HPV vaccine uptake. 65.1% of the 2,025 parents who completed the survey had consented to their daughter receiving the first dose of HPV vaccine. By contrast, more than 85% of the parents had consented to hepatitis B and meningitis C vaccination of their daughters. Nearly half of the parents surveyed said their main reason for consenting to HPV vaccination was the effectiveness of the vaccine. Conversely, nearly a third of the parents said concern about the vaccine's safety was their main reason for not consenting to vaccination and one in eight said they had been given insufficient information to make an informed decision. In a statistical analysis of the survey data, the researchers found that a positive parental attitude towards vaccination, a parental belief that HPV vaccination had limited impact on sexual practices, and completed childhood vaccination increased the likelihood of a daughter receiving the HPV vaccine. Having a family with two parents or three or more children and having well-educated parents decreased the likelihood of a daughter receiving the vaccine.
What Do These Findings Mean?
These findings provide one of the first population-based assessments of the factors that affect HPV vaccine uptake in a setting where there are no financial or health care barriers to vaccination. By identifying the factors associated with parental reluctance to agree to HPV vaccination for their daughters, these findings should help public-health officials design strategies to ensure optimal HPV vaccine uptake, although further studies are needed to discover why, for example, parents with more education are less likely to agree to vaccination than parents with less education. Importantly, the findings of this study, which are likely to be generalizable to other high-income countries, indicate that there is a continued need to ensure that the public receives credible, clear information about both the benefits and long-term safety of HPV vaccination.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000270.
The US National Cancer Institute provides information about cervical cancer for patients and for health professionals, including information on HPV vaccines (in English and Spanish)
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also has information about cervical cancer and about HPV
The UK National Health Service Choices website has pages on cervical cancer and on HPV vaccination
More information about cervical cancer and HPV vaccination is available from the Macmillan cancer charity
ImmunizeBC provides general information about vaccination and information about HPV vaccination in British Columbia
MedlinePlus provides links to additional resources about cervical cancer (in English and Spanish)
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000270
PMCID: PMC2864299  PMID: 20454567
4.  Vaccination coverage and reasons for non-vaccination in a district of Istanbul 
BMC Public Health  2006;6:125.
Background
In order to control and eliminate the vaccine preventable diseases it is important to know the vaccination coverage and reasons for non-vaccination. The primary objective of this study was to determine the complete vaccination rate; the reasons for non-vaccination and the predictors that influence vaccination of children. The other objective was to determine coverage of measles vaccination of the Measles Immunization Days (MID) 2005 for children aged 9 month to 6 years in a region of Umraniye, Istanbul, Turkey.
Methods
A '30 × 7' cluster sampling design was used as the sampling method. Thirty streets were selected at random from study area. Survey data were collected by a questionnaire which was applied face to face to parents of 221 children. A Chi-square test and logistic regression was used for the statistical analyses. Content analysis method was used to evaluate the open-ended questions.
Results
The complete vaccination rate for study population was 84.5% and 3.2% of all children were totally non-vaccinated. The siblings of non-vaccinated children were also non-vaccinated. Reasons for non-vaccination were as follows: being in the village and couldn't reach to health care services; having no knowledge about vaccination; the father of child didn't allow vaccination; intercurrent illness of child during vaccination time; missed opportunities like not to shave off a vial for only one child. In logistic regression analysis, paternal and maternal levels of education and immigration time of both parents to Istanbul were found to influence whether children were completely vaccinated or non-vaccinated. Measles vaccination coverage during MID was 79.3%.
Conclusion
Efforts to increase vaccination coverage should take reasons for non-vaccination into account.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-6-125
PMCID: PMC1464125  PMID: 16677375
5.  Immunization coverage of 12–23 months old children and associated factors in Jigjiga District, Somali National Regional State, Ethiopia 
BMC Public Health  2014;14(1):865.
Background
Immunization coverage in Ethiopia is less than the herd immunity level desired to prevent the spread of eight target diseases targeted by the World Health Organization’s Expanded Program of Immunization. In particular, the Somali region of the country still has by far the lowest level of immunization coverage. The objective of this study was to measure the immunization coverage of 12–23 months old children and associated factors in the urban and rural areas of Jigjiga district.
Methods
A community based cross-sectional survey was conducted in 582 households with 12–23 months old children in two urban and four rural wards. The data were collected from mothers or caregivers through interviews based on pre-tested and structured questionnaires and from the review of vaccination cards. Data were processed using SPSS version 16. To identify factors associated with the immunization status of children, bivariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were worked out and the Hoshmer and Lemeshow’s goodness-of-fit was used to assess the fitness of multiple logistic regression model.
Results
Three–fourth (74.6%) of the children surveyed were ever vaccinated, whereas 36.6% were fully vaccinated. The immunization coverage rate from card assessment for Bacillus Calmette-Guérin was 41.8%, while for Oral Polio Vaccine Zero, Oral Polio Vaccine One /Pentavalent1, Oral Polio Vaccine Two /Pentavalent2, Oral Polio Vaccine Three /Pentavalent3, and measles were 10.4%, 41.1%, 33.9%, 27.5%, and 24.9%, respectively. Maternal literacy (AOR = 3.06, 95% CI = 1.64, 5.71), Tetanus Toxoid Vaccine (AOR = 2.43, 95% CI = 1.56, 3.77), place of delivery (AOR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.24, 3.28), place of residence (AOR = 2.04, 95% CI = 1.33, 3.13), and household visits by health workers (AOR = 1.92, 95% CI = 1.17, 3.16), were found to be factors significantly associated with full immunization in the multivariate logistic regression analysis.
Conclusions
The overall immunization coverage was found to be low. Hence, to increase the immunization coverage and reduce the incidences of missed opportunity, delivery in the health institution should be promoted, the outreach activities of the health institutions should be strengthened and greater utilization of health services by mothers should be encouraged.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-865
PMCID: PMC4158082  PMID: 25146502
Immunization coverage; Vaccination; Children; Ethiopia
6.  Determinants of vaccination coverage in rural Nigeria 
BMC Public Health  2008;8:381.
Background
Childhood immunization is a cost effective public health strategy. Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI) services have been provided in a rural Nigerian community (Sabongidda-Ora, Edo State) at no cost to the community since 1998 through a privately financed vaccination project (private public partnership). The objective of this survey was to assess vaccination coverage and its determinants in this rural community in Nigeria
Methods
A cross-sectional survey was conducted in September 2006, which included the use of interviewer-administered questionnaire to assess knowledge of mothers of children aged 12–23 months and vaccination coverage. Survey participants were selected following the World Health Organization's (WHO) immunization coverage cluster survey design. Vaccination coverage was assessed by vaccination card and maternal history. A child was said to be fully immunized if he or she had received all of the following vaccines: a dose of Bacille Calmette Guerin (BCG), three doses of oral polio (OPV), three doses of diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus (DPT), three doses of hepatitis B (HB) and one dose of measles by the time he or she was enrolled in the survey, i.e. between the ages of 12–23 months. Knowledge of the mothers was graded as satisfactory if mothers had at least a score of 3 out of a maximum of 5 points. Logistic regression was performed to identify determinants of full immunization status.
Results
Three hundred and thirty-nine mothers and 339 children (each mother had one eligible child) were included in the survey. Most of the mothers (99.1%) had very positive attitudes to immunization and > 55% were generally knowledgeable about symptoms of vaccine preventable diseases except for difficulty in breathing (as symptom of diphtheria). Two hundred and ninety-five mothers (87.0%) had a satisfactory level of knowledge. Vaccination coverage against all the seven childhood vaccine preventable diseases was 61.9% although it was significantly higher (p = 0.002) amongst those who had a vaccination card (131/188, 69.7%) than in those assessed by maternal history (79/151, 52.3%). Multiple logistic regression showed that mothers' knowledge of immunization (p = 0.006) and vaccination at a privately funded health facility (p < 0.001) were significantly correlated with the rate of full immunization.
Conclusion
Eight years after initiation of this privately financed vaccination project (private-public partnership), vaccination coverage in this rural community is at a level that provides high protection (81%) against DPT/OPV. Completeness of vaccination was significantly correlated with knowledge of mothers on immunization and adequate attention should be given to this if high coverage levels are to be sustained.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-381
PMCID: PMC2587468  PMID: 18986544
7.  Decline in Diarrhea Mortality and Admissions after Routine Childhood Rotavirus Immunization in Brazil: A Time-Series Analysis 
PLoS Medicine  2011;8(4):e1001024.
A time series analysis by Manish Patel and colleagues shows that the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in Brazil is associated with reduced diarrhea-related deaths and hospital admissions in children under 5 years of age.
Background
In 2006, Brazil began routine immunization of infants <15 wk of age with a single-strain rotavirus vaccine. We evaluated whether the rotavirus vaccination program was associated with declines in childhood diarrhea deaths and hospital admissions by monitoring disease trends before and after vaccine introduction in all five regions of Brazil with varying disease burden and distinct socioeconomic and health indicators.
Methods and Findings
National data were analyzed with an interrupted time-series analysis that used diarrhea-related mortality or hospitalization rates as the main outcomes. Monthly mortality and admission rates estimated for the years after rotavirus vaccination (2007–2009) were compared with expected rates calculated from pre-vaccine years (2002–2005), adjusting for secular and seasonal trends. During the three years following rotavirus vaccination in Brazil, rates for diarrhea-related mortality and admissions among children <5 y of age were 22% (95% confidence interval 6%–44%) and 17% (95% confidence interval 5%–27%) lower than expected, respectively. A cumulative total of ∼1,500 fewer diarrhea deaths and 130,000 fewer admissions were observed among children <5 y during the three years after rotavirus vaccination. The largest reductions in deaths (22%–28%) and admissions (21%–25%) were among children younger than 2 y, who had the highest rates of vaccination. In contrast, lower reductions in deaths (4%) and admissions (7%) were noted among children two years of age and older, who were not age-eligible for vaccination during the study period.
Conclusions
After the introduction of rotavirus vaccination for infants, significant declines for three full years were observed in under-5-y diarrhea-related mortality and hospital admissions for diarrhea in Brazil. The largest reductions in diarrhea-related mortality and hospital admissions for diarrhea were among children younger than 2 y, who were eligible for vaccination as infants, which suggests that the reduced diarrhea burden in this age group was associated with introduction of the rotavirus vaccine. These real-world data are consistent with evidence obtained from clinical trials and strengthen the evidence base for the introduction of rotavirus vaccination as an effective measure for controlling severe and fatal childhood diarrhea.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Diarrheal disease, usually caused by infectious agents, is the second major cause of death in children aged under five years. As highlighted in a recent PLoS Medicine series, access to clean water and improved sanitation is the key to the primary prevention of diarrheal illnesses. Yet despite the targets of Millennium Development Goal 7 to half the number of people without access to clean water or improved sanitation by 2015, over one billion people worldwide do not currently have access to clean water and over two billion do not currently have access to improved sanitation.
Since enteric viruses are primarily transmitted directly from one person to another, they cannot be controlled completely by improvements in sanitation. Therefore, although not replacing the urgent need to provide access to clean water and improved sanitation for all, vaccination programs that protect young children against some infections that cause diarrhea, such as rotavirus, which accounts for one-third of all child deaths caused by diarrhea, are a pragmatic way forward. As large clinical trials have shown the safety and efficacy of rotavirus vaccines in population settings, in July 2009, the World Health Organization recommended including rotavirus vaccines into every country's national immunization programs.
Why Was This Study Done?
Although the protective effect of rotavirus vaccines has been assessed in various high-, middle-, and low-income settings, for reasons that remain unclear, the efficacy of live, oral rotavirus vaccines appears to be dependent on geographical location and correlated to the socioeconomic status of the population. Because of these concerns, evaluating the health impact of large-scale rotavirus vaccine programs and ensuring their equity in a real-world setting (rather than in clinical trial conditions) is important.
Therefore, the researchers addressed this issue by conducting this study to evaluate the effect of rotavirus vaccination on mortality and hospital admissions for diarrhea due to all causes among young children in the five regions of Brazil. The researchers chose to do this study in Brazil because of the high incidence of diarrhea-related deaths and hospital admissions and because five years ago, in July 2006, the Brazilian Ministry of Health introduced the single-strain rotavirus vaccine simultaneously in all 27 states through its national immunization program—allowing for “before” and “after” intervention analysis.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers obtained data on diarrheal deaths and hospital admissions in children aged under five years for the period 2002–2005 and 2007–2009 and data on rotavirus vaccination rates. The researchers got the data on diarrhea deaths from the Brazilian Mortality Information System—the national database of information collected from death certificates that covers 90% of all deaths in Brazil. The data on hospital admissions came from the electronic Hospital Information System of Brazil's Unified Health System (Sistema Unico de Saúde, SUS)—the publicly funded health-care system that covers roughly 70% of the hospitalizations and includes information on all admissions (from public hospitals and some private hospitals) authorized for payment by the Unified Health System. The researchers got regional rotavirus vaccination coverage estimates for 2007–2009 from the information department of the Ministry of Health, and estimated coverage of the two doses of oral rotavirus vaccine by taking the annual number of second doses administered divided by the number of infants in the region.
In 2007, an estimated 80% of infants received two doses of rotavirus vaccine, and by 2009, this proportion rose to 84% of children younger than one year of age. The researchers found that in the three years following the introduction of rotavirus vaccination, diarrhea-related mortality rates and admissions among children aged under five years were respectively 22% and 17% lower than expected, with a cumulative total of 1,500 fewer diarrhea deaths and 130,000 fewer admissions. Furthermore, the largest reductions in deaths and admissions were among children who had the highest rates of vaccination (less than two years of age), and the lowest reductions were among children who were not eligible for vaccination during the study period (aged 2–4 years).
What Do These Findings Mean?
These findings suggest that the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in all areas of Brazil is associated with reduced diarrhea-related deaths and hospital admissions in children aged under five years. These real-world impact data are consistent with the clinical trials and strengthen the evidence base for rotavirus vaccination as an effective measure for controlling severe and fatal childhood diarrhea.
These findings have important global policy implications. In middle-income countries, such as Brazil, that are not eligible for financial support from donors, the potential reductions in admissions and other health-care costs will be important for cost-effectiveness considerations to justify the purchase of these still relatively expensive vaccines.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001024
PLoS Medicine has published a series on water and sanitation
More information is available from the World Health Organization on diarrheal illness in children
More information is available about rotavirus vaccines from the World Health Organization, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Rotavirus Vaccine Program
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001024
PMCID: PMC3079643  PMID: 21526228
8.  Childhood vaccination in informal urban settlements in Nairobi, Kenya: Who gets vaccinated? 
BMC Public Health  2011;11:6.
Background
Recent trends in global vaccination coverage have shown increases with most countries reaching 90% DTP3 coverage in 2008, although pockets of undervaccination continue to persist in parts of sub-Saharan Africa particularly in the urban slums. The objectives of this study were to determine the vaccination status of children aged between 12-23 months living in two slums of Nairobi and to identify the risk factors associated with incomplete vaccination.
Methods
The study was carried out as part of a longitudinal Maternal and Child Health study undertaken in Korogocho and Viwandani slums of Nairobi. These slums host the Nairobi Urban Health and Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS) run by the African Population and Health Research Centre (APHRC). All women from the NUHDSS area who gave birth since September 2006 were enrolled in the project and administered a questionnaire which asked about the vaccination history of their children. For the purpose of this study, we used data from 1848 children aged 12-23 months who were expected to have received all the WHO-recommended vaccinations. The vaccination details were collected during the first visit about four months after birth with follow-up visits repeated thereafter at four month intervals. Full vaccination was defined as receiving all the basic childhood vaccinations by the end of 24 months of life, whereas up-to-date (UTD) vaccination referred to receipt of BCG, OPV 1-3, DTP 1-3, and measles vaccinations within the first 12 months of life. All vaccination data were obtained from vaccination cards which were sighted during the household visit as well as by recall from mothers. Multivariate models were used to identify the risk factors associated with incomplete vaccination.
Results
Measles coverage was substantially lower than that for the other vaccines when determined using only vaccination cards or in addition to maternal recall. Up-to-date (UTD) coverage with all vaccinations at 12 months was 41.3% and 51.8% with and without the birth dose of OPV, respectively. Full vaccination coverage (57.5%) was higher than up-to-date coverage (51.8%) at 12 months overall, and in both slum settlements, using data from cards. Multivariate analysis showed that household assets and expenditure, ethnicity, place of delivery, mother's level of education, age and parity were all predictors of full vaccination among children living in the slums.
Conclusions
The findings show the extent to which children resident in slums are underserved with vaccination and indicate that service delivery of immunization services in the urban slums needs to be reassessed to ensure that all children are reached.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-6
PMCID: PMC3024932  PMID: 21205306
9.  Socioeconomic inequalities are still a barrier to full child vaccine coverage in the Brazilian Amazon: a cross-sectional study in Assis Brasil, Acre, Brazil 
Introduction
Vaccines are very important to reduce morbidity and mortality by preventable infectious diseases, especially during childhood. Optimal coverage is not always achieved, for several reasons. Here we assessed vaccine coverage for the first 12 months of age in children between 12 and 59 months old, residing in the urban area of a small Amazonian city, and factors associated with incomplete vaccination.
Methods
A census was performed in the urban area of Assis Brasil, in the Brazilian Amazon, in January 2010, with mothers of 282 children aged 12 to 59 months old, using structured interviews and data from vaccination cards. Mixed logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with incomplete vaccination schemes.
Results
Only 82.6% of all children had a completed the basic vaccine scheme for the first year of life. Vaccine coverage ranged from 52.7% coverage (oral rotavirus vaccine) to 99.7% coverage (for Bacille Calmette-Guérin). The major deficiencies occurred in doses administered after the first six months of life. Incomplete vaccination was associated with not having enough income to buy a house (aOR = 2.12, 95% CI 1.06-4.21), low maternal schooling (aOR = 2.60, 95% CI 1.28 – 5.29) , and time of residence of the child in the urban area of the city (aOR = 0.73, 95% CI 0.55 – 0.95).
Conclusions
This study showed that vaccine coverage in the first twelve months of life in Assis Brasil is similar to other areas in the Amazon and it is below the coverage postulated by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. Low vaccine coverage was associated with socioeconomic inequities that still prevail in the Brazilian Amazon. Short and long-term strategies must be taken to update child vaccines and increase vaccine coverage in the Amazon.
doi:10.1186/s12939-014-0118-y
PMCID: PMC4256802  PMID: 25428334
Vaccine; Coverage; Child; Amazon; Cobertura vacinal; Saúde da criança; Amazônia
10.  Why children are not vaccinated against measles: a cross-sectional study in two Nigerian States 
Archives of Public Health  2014;72(1):48.
Background
Childhood vaccination rates in Nigeria are among the lowest in the world and this affects morbidity and mortality rates. A 2011 mixed methods study in two states in Nigeria examined coverage of measles vaccination and reasons for not vaccinating children.
Methods
A household survey covered a stratified random cluster sample of 180 enumeration areas in Bauchi and Cross River States. Cluster-adjusted bivariate and then multivariate analysis examined associations between measles vaccination and potential determinants among children aged 12-23 months, including household socio-economic status, parental knowledge and attitudes about vaccination, and access to vaccination services. Focus groups of parents in the same sites subsequently discussed the survey findings and gave reasons for non-vaccination. A knowledge to action strategy shared findings with stakeholders, including state government, local governments and communities, to stimulate evidence-based actions to increase vaccination rates.
Results
Interviewers collected data on 2,836 children aged 12-23 months in Cross River and 2,421 children in Bauchi. Mothers reported 81.8% of children in Cross River and 42.0% in Bauchi had received measles vaccine. In both states, children were more likely to receive measles vaccine if their mothers thought immunisation worthwhile, if immunisation was discussed in the home, if their mothers had more education, and if they had a birth certificate. In Bauchi, maternal awareness about immunization, mothers’ involvement in deciding about immunization, and fathers’ education increased the chances of vaccination. In Cross River, children from communities with a government immunisation facility were more likely to have received measles vaccine. Focus groups revealed lack of knowledge and negative attitudes about vaccination, and complaints about having to pay for vaccination. Health planners in both states used the findings to support efforts to increase vaccination rates.
Conclusion
Measles vaccination remains sub-optimal, particularly in Bauchi. Efforts to counter negative perceptions about vaccination and to ensure vaccinations are actually provided free may help to increase vaccination rates. Parents need to be made aware that vaccination should be free, including for children without a birth certificate, and vaccination could be an opportunity for issuing birth certificates. The study provides pointers for state level planning to increase vaccination rates.
doi:10.1186/2049-3258-72-48
PMCID: PMC4322649  PMID: 25671115
Vaccination; Measles; Immunisation; Children; MDG4; Nigeria
11.  Effects of Community-Wide Vaccination with PCV-7 on Pneumococcal Nasopharyngeal Carriage in The Gambia: A Cluster-Randomized Trial 
PLoS Medicine  2011;8(10):e1001107.
In a cluster-randomized trial conducted in Gambian villages, Anna Roca and colleagues find that vaccination of children with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines reduced vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage even among nonvaccinated older children and adults.
Background
Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) of limited valency is justified in Africa by the high burden of pneumococcal disease. Long-term beneficial effects of PCVs may be countered by serotype replacement. We aimed to determine the impact of PCV-7 vaccination on pneumococcal carriage in rural Gambia.
Methods and Findings
A cluster-randomized (by village) trial of the impact of PCV-7 on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage was conducted in 21 Gambian villages between December 2003 to June 2008 (5,441 inhabitants in 2006). Analysis was complemented with data obtained before vaccination. Because efficacy of PCV-9 in young Gambian children had been shown, it was considered unethical not to give PCV-7 to young children in all of the study villages. PCV-7 was given to children below 30 mo of age and to those born during the trial in all study villages. Villages were randomized (older children and adults) to receive one dose of PCV-7 (11 vaccinated villages) or meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine (10 control villages). Cross-sectional surveys (CSSs) to collect nasopharyngeal swabs were conducted before vaccination (2,094 samples in the baseline CSS), and 4–6, 12, and 22 mo after vaccination (1,168, 1,210, and 446 samples in CSS-1, -2, and -3, respectively).
A time trend analysis showed a marked fall in the prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in all age groups following vaccination (from 23.7% and 26.8% in the baseline CSS to 7.1% and 8.5% in CSS-1, in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). The prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage was lower in vaccinated than in control villages among older children (5 y to <15 y of age) and adults (≥15 y of age) at CSS-2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.15 [95% CI 0.04–0.57] and OR = 0.32 [95% CI 0.10–0.98], respectively) and at CSS-3 (OR = 0.37 [95% CI 0.15–0.90] for older children, and 0% versus 7.6% for adults in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). Differences in the prevalence of non-vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage between vaccinated and control villages were small.
Conclusions
Vaccination of Gambian children reduced vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage across all age groups, indicating a “herd effect” in non-vaccinated older children and adults. No significant serotype replacement was detected.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
The prevention of pneumococcal disease, especially in children in developing countries, is a major international public health priority. Despite all the international attention on the UN's Millennium Development Goal 4—to reduce deaths in children under five years by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015—pneumonia, sepsis, and meningitis together compose more than 25% of the 10 million deaths occurring in children less than five years of age. Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading bacterial cause of these diseases, and the World Health Organization estimates that approximately 800,000 children die each year of invasive pneumococcal disease.
Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines are currently available and protect against the serotypes that most commonly cause invasive pneumococcal disease in young children in North America and Europe. Such vaccines have been highly successful in reducing the incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in both vaccinated children and in the non-vaccinated older population by reducing nasopharyngeal carriage (presence of pneumococcal bacteria in the back of the nose) in vaccinated infants, resulting in decreased transmission to contacts—the so-called herd effect. However, few countries with the highest burden of invasive pneumococcal disease, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, have introduced the vaccine into their national immunization programs.
Why Was This Study Done?
The features of pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage and invasive pneumococcal disease in sub-Saharan Africa are different than in other regions. Therefore, careful evaluation of the immune effects of vaccination requires long-term, longitudinal studies. As an alternative to such long-term observational studies, and to anticipate the potential long-term effects of the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in sub-Saharan Africa, the researchers conducted a cluster-randomized (by village) trial in The Gambia in which the whole populations of some villages were immunized with the vaccine PCV-7, and other villages received a control.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
With full consent from communities, the researchers randomized 21 similar villages in a rural region of western Gambia to receive pneumococcal conjugate vaccine or a control—meningococcal serogroup C conjugated vaccine, which is unlikely to affect pneumococcal carriage rates. For ethical reasons, the researchers only randomized residents aged over 30 months—all young infants received PCV-7, as a similar vaccine had already been shown to be effective in young infants. Before immunization began, the researchers took nasopharyngeal swabs from a random selection of village residents to determine the baseline pneumococcal carriage rates of both the serotypes of pneumococci covered by the vaccine (vaccine types, VTs) and the serotypes of pneumococci not covered in the vaccine (non-vaccine types, NVTs). The researchers then took nasopharyngeal swabs from a random sample of 1,200 of village residents in both groups of villages in cross-sectional surveys at 4–6, 12, and 22 months after vaccination. Villagers and laboratory staff were unaware of which vaccine was which (that is, they were blinded).
Before immunization, the overall prevalence of pneumococcal carriage in both groups was high, at 71.1%, and decreased with age. After vaccination, the overall prevalence of pneumococcal carriage in all three surveys was similar between vaccinated and control villages, showing a marked fall. However, the prevalence of carriage of VT pneumococci was significantly lower in vaccinated than in control villages in all surveys for all age groups. The prevalence of carriage of NVT pneumococci was similar in vaccinated and in control villages, except for a slightly higher prevalence of NVT pneumococci among vaccinated communities in adults at 4–6 months after vaccination. The researchers also found that the overall prevalence of pneumococcal carriage fell markedly after vaccination and reached minimum levels at 12 months in both study arms and in all age groups.
What Do These Findings Mean?
These findings show that vaccination of young Gambian children reduced carriage of VT pneumococci in vaccinated children but also in vaccinated and non-vaccinated older children and adults, revealing a potential herd effect from vaccination of young children. Furthermore, the immunological pressure induced by vaccinating whole communities did not lead to a community-wide increase in carriage of NVT pneumococci during a two-year period after vaccination. The researchers plan to conduct more long-term follow-up studies to determine nasopharyngeal carriage in these communities.
Additional Information
Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001107.
The World Health Organization has information about pneumococcus
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information about pneumococcal conjugate vaccination
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001107
PMCID: PMC3196470  PMID: 22028630
12.  Factors associated with complete immunization coverage in children aged 12–23 months in Ambo Woreda, Central Ethiopia 
BMC Public Health  2012;12:566.
Background
Vaccination is a proven tool in preventing and eradicating communicable diseases, but a considerable proportion of childhood morbidity and mortality in Ethiopia is due to vaccine preventable diseases. Immunization coverage in many parts of the country remains low despite the efforts to improve the services. In 2005, only 20% of the children were fully vaccinated and about 1 million children were unvaccinated in 2007. The objective of this study was to assess complete immunization coverage and its associated factors among children aged 12–23 months in Ambo woreda.
Methods
A cross-sectional community-based study was conducted in 8 rural and 2 urban kebeles during January- February, 2011. A modified WHO EPI cluster sampling method was used for sample selection. Data on 536 children aged 12–23 months from 536 representative households were collected using trained nurses. The data collectors assessed the vaccination status of the children based on vaccination cards or mother’s verbal reports using a pre-tested structured questionnaire through house-to-house visits. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess factors associated with immunization coverage.
Results
About 96% of the mothers heard about vaccination and vaccine preventable diseases and 79.5% knew the benefit of immunization. About 36% of children aged 12–23 months were fully vaccinated by card plus recall, but only 27.7% were fully vaccinated by card alone and 23.7% children were unvaccinated. Using multivariate logistic regression models, factors significantly associated with complete immunization were antenatal care follow-up (adjusted odds ratio(AOR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.2- 4.9), being born in the health facility (AOR = 2.1, 95% CI: 1.3-3.4), mothers’ knowledge about the age at which vaccination begins (AOR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9-4.6) and knowledge about the age at which vaccination completes (AOR = 4.3, 95% CI: 2.3-8), whereas area of residence and mother’s socio-demographic characteristics were not significantly associated with full immunization among children.
Conclusion
Complete immunization coverage among children aged 12–23 months remains low. Maternal health care utilization and knowledge of mothers about the age at which child begins and finishes vaccination are the main factors associated with complete immunization coverage. It is necessary that, local interventions should be strengthened to raising awareness of the community on the importance of immunization, antenatal care and institutional delivery.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-12-566
PMCID: PMC3508824  PMID: 22839418
Complete immunization; Immunization; Ambo
13.  Evaluation of immunization coverage within the Expanded Program on Immunization in Kita Circle, Mali: a cross-sectional survey 
Background
In 1986, the Government of Mali launched its Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) with the goal of vaccinating, within five years, 80% of all children under the age of five against six target diseases: diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, poliomyelitis, tuberculosis, and measles. The Demographic and Health Survey carried out in 2001 revealed that, in Kita Circle, in the Kayes region, only 13% of children aged 12 to 23 months had received all the EPI vaccinations. A priority program was implemented in 2003 by the Regional Health Department in Kayes to improve EPI immunization coverage in this area.
Methods
A cross-sectional survey using Henderson's method (following the method used by the Demographic and Health Surveys) was carried out in July 2006 to determine the level of vaccination coverage among children aged 12 to 23 months in Kita Circle, after implementation of the priority program. Both vaccination cards and mothers' declarations (in cases where the mother cannot make the declaration, it is made by the person responsible for the child) were used to determine coverage.
Results
According to the vaccination cards, 59.9% [CI 95% (54.7-64.8)] of the children were fully vaccinated, while according to the mothers' declarations the rate was 74.1% [CI 95% (69.3-78.4)]. The drop-out rate between DTCP1 and DTCP3 was 5.5%, according to the vaccination cards. The rate of immunization coverage was higher among children whose mothers had received the anti-tetanus vaccine [OR = 2.1, CI 95% (1.44-3.28)]. However, our study found no difference associated with parents' knowledge about EPI diseases, distance from the health centre, or socio-economic status. Lack of information was one reason given for children not being vaccinated against the six EPI diseases.
Conclusion
Three years after the implementation of the priority program (which included decentralization, the active search for missing children, and deployment of health personnel, material and financial resources), our evaluation of the vaccination coverage rates shows that there is improvement in the EPI immunization coverage rate in Kita Circle. The design of our study did not, however, enable us to determine the extent to which different aspects of the program contributed to this increase in coverage. Efforts should nevertheless be continued, in order to reach the goal of 80% immunization coverage.
Abstract in French
See the full article online for a translation of this abstract in French.
doi:10.1186/1472-698X-9-S1-S13
PMCID: PMC3226232  PMID: 19828057
14.  Removing the Age Restrictions for Rotavirus Vaccination: A Benefit-Risk Modeling Analysis 
PLoS Medicine  2012;9(10):e1001330.
A modeling analysis conducted by Manish Patel and colleagues predicts the possible number of rotavirus deaths prevented, and number of intussusception deaths caused, by use of an unrestricted rotavirus schedule in low- and middle-income countries.
Background
To minimize potential risk of intussusception, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended in 2009 that rotavirus immunization should be initiated by age 15 weeks and completed before 32 weeks. These restrictions could adversely impact vaccination coverage and thereby its health impact, particularly in developing countries where delays in vaccination often occur.
Methods and Findings
We conducted a modeling study to estimate the number of rotavirus deaths prevented and the number of intussusception deaths caused by vaccination when administered on the restricted schedule versus an unrestricted schedule whereby rotavirus vaccine would be administered with DTP vaccine up to age 3 years. Countries were grouped on the basis of child mortality rates, using WHO data. Inputs were estimates of WHO rotavirus mortality by week of age from a recent study, intussusception mortality based on a literature review, predicted vaccination rates by week of age from USAID Demographic and Health Surveys, the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), and WHO-UNICEF 2010 country-specific coverage estimates, and published estimates of vaccine efficacy and vaccine-associated intussusception risk. On the basis of the error estimates and distributions for model inputs, we conducted 2,000 simulations to obtain median estimates of deaths averted and caused as well as the uncertainty ranges, defined as the 5th–95th percentile, to provide an indication of the uncertainty in the estimates.
We estimated that in low and low-middle income countries a restricted schedule would prevent 155,800 rotavirus deaths (5th–95th centiles, 83,300–217,700) while causing potentially 253 intussusception deaths (76–689). In contrast, vaccination without age restrictions would prevent 203,000 rotavirus deaths (102,000–281,500) while potentially causing 547 intussusception deaths (237–1,160). Thus, removing the age restrictions would avert an additional 47,200 rotavirus deaths (18,700–63,700) and cause an additional 294 (161–471) intussusception deaths, for an incremental benefit-risk ratio of 154 deaths averted for every death caused by vaccine. These extra deaths prevented under an unrestricted schedule reflect vaccination of an additional 21%–25% children, beyond the 63%–73% of the children who would be vaccinated under the restricted schedule. Importantly, these estimates err on the side of safety in that they assume high vaccine-associated risk of intussusception and do not account for potential herd immunity or non-fatal outcomes.
Conclusions
Our analysis suggests that in low- and middle-income countries the additional lives saved by removing age restrictions for rotavirus vaccination would far outnumber the potential excess vaccine-associated intussusception deaths.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Rotavirus causes severe diarrhea and vomiting. It is responsible for a large number of hospitalizations among young children in developed countries (an estimated 60,000 hospitalizations per year in the US in 2005, for example). In poor countries, rotavirus is a major cause of death in children under five. In 1998, the first rotavirus vaccine, called RotaShield, was approved in the US by the Food and Drug Administration. Shortly after the vaccine became widely used, doctors noticed a small increase in a problem called intussusception among the vaccinated infants. Intussusception is a rare type of bowel obstruction that occurs when the bowel telescopes in on itself. Prompt treatment of intussusception normally leads to full recovery, but some children with the condition need surgery, and when the disease is left untreated it can be fatal. Because intussusception is a serious condition and because very few children die from rotavirus infection in the United States, the US authorities stopped recommending vaccination with RotaShield in 1999. The manufacturer withdrew the vaccine from the market shortly thereafter.
Since then, two new vaccines (named Rotarix and RotaTeq) have been developed. Before they were approved in the US and elsewhere, they were extensively tested for any adverse side effects, especially intussusception. No increase in the risk for intussusception was found in these studies, and both are now approved and recommended for vaccination of infants around the world.
Why Was This Study Done?
Since 2006, hundreds of thousands of infants have been vaccinated with Rotarix or RotaTeq, with safety being closely monitored. Some countries have reported a small increase in intussusception (one to four additional cases per 100,000 vaccinated infants, compared with one per 2,000 of cases that occur in unvaccinated children). This increase is much lower than the one seen previously with RotaShield. In response to these findings, authorities in the US and other developed countries as well as the World Health Organization declared that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the risks of the small number of additional intussusception cases in both developed and poor countries. However, because older infants have a higher risk of naturally occurring intussusception, they decided that the course of vaccination (three oral doses for Rotarix and two for RotaTeq) should be initiated before 15 weeks of age and completed before the age of 32 weeks. This is usually not a problem in countries with easy access to health facilities. However, in many poor countries where delays in infant vaccination are common, giving the vaccine only to very young children means that many others who could benefit from its protection will be excluded. In this study, the researchers examined the risks and benefits of rotavirus vaccination in poor countries where most of the rotavirus deaths occur. Specifically, they looked at the benefits and risks if the age restrictions were removed, with a particular emphasis on allowing infants to initiate rotavirus immunization even if they arrive after 15 weeks of age.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers used the most recent estimates for how well the vaccines protect children in Africa and Asia from becoming infected with rotavirus, how many deaths from rotavirus infection can be avoided by vaccination, how many additional cases of intussusception will likely occur in vaccinated children, and what proportion of children would be excluded from rotavirus vaccination because they are too old when they come to a health facility for their infant vaccination. They then estimated the number of rotavirus deaths prevented and the number of intussusception deaths caused by vaccination in two scenarios. The first one (the restricted scenario) corresponds to previous guidelines from WHO and others, in which rotavirus vaccination needs to be initiated before 15 weeks and the full series completed before 32 weeks. The second one (called the unrestricted scenario) allows rotavirus vaccination of children alongside current routinely administered vaccines up to three years of age, recognizing that most children receive their vaccination by 1 year of life.
The researchers estimated that removing the age restriction would prevent an additional 154 rotavirus deaths for each intussusception death caused by the vaccine. Under the unrestricted scenario, roughly a third more children would get vaccinated, which would prevent an additional approximately 47,000 death from rotavirus while causing approximately 300 additional intussusception deaths.
They also calculated some best- and worst-case scenarios. The worst-case scenario assumed a much higher risk of intussusception for children receiving their first dose after 15 weeks of life than what has been seen anywhere, and also that an additional 20% of children with intussusception would die from it than what was already assumed in their routine scenario (again, a higher number than seen in reality). In addition, it assumes a lower protection from rotavirus death for the vaccine than has been observed in children vaccinated so far. In this pessimistic case, the number of rotavirus deaths prevented was 24 for each intussusception death caused by the vaccine.
What Do These Findings Mean?
If one accepts that deaths caused by a vaccine are not fundamentally different from deaths caused by a failure to vaccinate, then these results show that the benefits of lifting the age restriction for rotavirus vaccine clearly outweigh the risks, at least when only examining mortality outcomes. The calculations are valid only for low-income countries in Africa and Asia where both vaccination delays and deaths from rotavirus are common. The risk-benefit ratio will be different elsewhere. There are also additional risks and benefits that are not included in the study's estimates. For example, early vaccination might be seen as less of an urgent priority when this vaccine can be had at a later date, leaving very young children more vulnerable. On the other hand, when many children in the community are vaccinated, even the unvaccinated children are less likely to get infected (what is known as “herd immunity”), something that has not been taken into account in the benefits here. The results of this study (and its limitations) were reviewed in April 2012 by WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts. The group then recommended that, while early vaccination is still strongly encouraged, the age restriction on rotavirus vaccination should be removed in countries where delays in vaccination and rotavirus mortality are common so that more vulnerable children can be vaccinated and deaths from rotavirus averted.
Additional Information
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001330.
The World Health Organization provides information on rotavirus
Wikipedia has information on rotavirus vaccine and intussusception (note that Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rotavirus vaccination page includes a link to frequently asked questions
PATH Rotavirus Vaccine Access and Delivery has timely, useful updates on status of rotavirus vaccines globally
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001330
PMCID: PMC3479108  PMID: 23109915
15.  Factors associated with underimmunization at 3 months of age in four medically underserved areas. 
Public Health Reports  2004;119(5):479-485.
OBJECTIVE: Risk factors for underimmunization at 3 months of age are not well described. This study examines coverage rates and factors associated with under-immunization at 3 months of age in four medically underserved areas. METHODS: During 1997-1998, cross-sectional household surveys using a two-stage cluster sample design were conducted in four federally designated Health Professional Shortage Areas. Respondents were parents or caregivers of children ages 12-35 months: 847 from northern Manhattan, 843 from Detroit, 771 from San Diego, and 1,091 from rural Colorado. A child was considered up-to-date (UTD) with vaccinations at 3 months of age if documentation of receipt of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, polio, haemophilus influenzae type B, and hepatitis B vaccines was obtained from a provider or a hand-held vaccination card, or both. RESULTS: Household response rates ranged from 79% to 88% across sites. Vaccination coverage levels at 3 months of age varied across sites: 82.4% in northern Manhattan, 70.5% in Detroit, 82.3% in San Diego, and 75.8% in rural Colorado. Among children who were not UTD, the majority (65.7% to 71.5% per site) had missed vaccines due to missed opportunities. Factors associated with not being UTD varied by site and included having public or no insurance, >/=2 children living in the household, and the adult respondent being unmarried. At all sites, vaccination coverage among WIC enrollees was higher than coverage among children eligible for but not enrolled in WIC, but the association between UTD status and WIC enrollment was statistically significant for only one site and marginally significant for two other sites. CONCLUSIONS: Missed opportunities were a significant barrier to vaccinations, even at this early age. Practice-based strategies to reduce missed opportunities and prenatal WIC enrollment should be focused especially toward those at highest risk of underimmunization.
doi:10.1016/j.phr.2004.07.005
PMCID: PMC1497657  PMID: 15313111
16.  Yellow Fever in Africa: Estimating the Burden of Disease and Impact of Mass Vaccination from Outbreak and Serological Data 
PLoS Medicine  2014;11(5):e1001638.
Neil Ferguson and colleagues estimate the disease burden of yellow fever in Africa, as well as the impact of mass vaccination campaigns.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Background
Yellow fever is a vector-borne disease affecting humans and non-human primates in tropical areas of Africa and South America. While eradication is not feasible due to the wildlife reservoir, large scale vaccination activities in Africa during the 1940s to 1960s reduced yellow fever incidence for several decades. However, after a period of low vaccination coverage, yellow fever has resurged in the continent. Since 2006 there has been substantial funding for large preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the most affected countries in Africa to curb the rising burden of disease and control future outbreaks. Contemporary estimates of the yellow fever disease burden are lacking, and the present study aimed to update the previous estimates on the basis of more recent yellow fever occurrence data and improved estimation methods.
Methods and Findings
Generalised linear regression models were fitted to a dataset of the locations of yellow fever outbreaks within the last 25 years to estimate the probability of outbreak reports across the endemic zone. Environmental variables and indicators for the surveillance quality in the affected countries were used as covariates. By comparing probabilities of outbreak reports estimated in the regression with the force of infection estimated for a limited set of locations for which serological surveys were available, the detection probability per case and the force of infection were estimated across the endemic zone.
The yellow fever burden in Africa was estimated for the year 2013 as 130,000 (95% CI 51,000–380,000) cases with fever and jaundice or haemorrhage including 78,000 (95% CI 19,000–180,000) deaths, taking into account the current level of vaccination coverage. The impact of the recent mass vaccination campaigns was assessed by evaluating the difference between the estimates obtained for the current vaccination coverage and for a hypothetical scenario excluding these vaccination campaigns. Vaccination campaigns were estimated to have reduced the number of cases and deaths by 27% (95% CI 22%–31%) across the region, achieving up to an 82% reduction in countries targeted by these campaigns. A limitation of our study is the high level of uncertainty in our estimates arising from the sparseness of data available from both surveillance and serological surveys.
Conclusions
With the estimation method presented here, spatial estimates of transmission intensity can be combined with vaccination coverage levels to evaluate the impact of past or proposed vaccination campaigns, thereby helping to allocate resources efficiently for yellow fever control. This method has been used by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance) to estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Yellow fever is a flavivirus infection that is transmitted to people and to non-human primates through the bites of infected mosquitoes. This serious viral disease affects people living in and visiting tropical regions of Africa and Central and South America. In rural areas next to forests, the virus typically causes sporadic cases or even small-scale epidemics (outbreaks) but, if it is introduced into urban areas, it can cause large explosive epidemics that are hard to control. Although many people who contract yellow fever do not develop any symptoms, some have mild flu-like symptoms, and others develop a high fever with jaundice (yellowing of the skin and eyes) or hemorrhaging (bleeding) from the mouth, nose, eyes, or stomach. Half of patients who develop these severe symptoms die. Because of this wide spectrum of symptoms, which overlap with those of other tropical diseases, it is hard to diagnose yellow fever from symptoms alone. However, serological tests that detect antibodies to the virus in the blood can help in diagnosis. There is no specific antiviral treatment for yellow fever but its symptoms can be treated.
Why Was This Study Done?
Eradication of yellow fever is not feasible because of the wildlife reservoir for the virus but there is a safe, affordable, and highly effective vaccine against the disease. Large-scale vaccination efforts during the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s reduced the yellow fever burden for several decades but, after a period of low vaccination coverage, the number of cases rebounded. In 2005, the Yellow Fever Initiative—a collaboration between the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children Fund supported by the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI Alliance)—was launched to create a vaccine stockpile for use in epidemics and to implement preventive mass vaccination campaigns in the 12 most affected countries in West Africa. Campaigns have now been implemented in all these countries except Nigeria. However, without an estimate of the current yellow fever burden, it is hard to determine the impact of these campaigns. Here, the researchers use recent yellow fever occurrence data, serological survey data, and improved estimation methods to update estimates of the yellow fever burden and to determine the impact of mass vaccination on this burden.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers developed a generalized linear statistical model and used data on the locations where yellow fever was reported between 1987 and 2011 in Africa, force of infection estimates for a limited set of locations where serological surveys were available (the force of infection is the rate at which susceptible individuals acquire a disease), data on vaccination coverage, and demographic and environmental data for their calculations. They estimate that about 130,000 yellow fever cases with fever and jaundice or hemorrhage occurred in Africa in 2013 and that about 78,000 people died from the disease. By evaluating the difference between this estimate, which takes into account the current vaccination coverage, and a hypothetical scenario that excluded the mass vaccination campaigns, the researchers estimate that these campaigns have reduced the burden of disease by 27% across Africa and by up to 82% in the countries targeted by the campaigns (an overall reduction of 57% in the 12 targeted countries).
What Do These Findings Mean?
These findings provide a contemporary estimate of the burden of yellow fever in Africa. This estimate is broadly similar to the historic estimate of 200,000 cases and 30,000 deaths annually, which was based on serological survey data obtained from children in Nigeria between 1945 and 1971. Notably, both disease burden estimates are several hundred-fold higher than the average number of yellow fever cases reported annually to WHO, which reflects the difficulties associated with the diagnosis of yellow fever. Importantly, these findings also provide an estimate of the impact of recent mass vaccination campaigns. All these findings have a high level of uncertainty, however, because of the lack of data from both surveillance and serological surveys. Other assumptions incorporated in the researchers' model may also affect the accuracy of these findings. Nevertheless, the framework for burden estimation developed here provides essential new information about the yellow fever burden and the impact of vaccination campaigns and should help the partners of the Yellow Fever Initiative estimate the potential impact of future vaccination campaigns and ensure the efficient allocation of resources for yellow fever control.
Additional Information
Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001638.
The World Health Organization provides detailed information about yellow fever (in several languages), including photo stories about vaccination campaigns in the Sudan and Mali; it also provides information about the Yellow Fever Initiative (in English and French)
The GAVI Alliance website includes detailed of its support for yellow fever vaccination
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides information about yellow fever for the public, travelers, and health care providers
The UK National Health Service Choices website also has information about yellow fever
Wikipedia has a page on yellow fever that includes information about the history of the disease (note that Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001638
PMCID: PMC4011853  PMID: 24800812
17.  Lot quality survey: an appealing method for rapid evaluation of vaccine coverage in developing countries – experience in Turkey 
BMC Public Health  2008;8:240.
Background
Vaccine-preventable diseases cause significant morbidity and mortality worldwide and in developing countries in particular. Information on coverage and reasons for non-vaccination is vital to enhance overall vaccination activities. Of the several survey techniques available for investigating vaccination coverage in a given setting, the Lot Quality Technique (LQT) remains appealing and could be used in developing countries by local health personnel of district or rural health authorities to evaluate their performance in vaccination and many other health-related programs. This study aimed to evaluate vaccination coverage using LQT in a selected semi-urban setting in Turkey.
Methods
A LQT-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Kecioren District on a representative sample of residents aged 12–23 months in order to evaluate coverage for routine childhood vaccines, to identify health units with coverage below 75%, and to investigate reasons for non-vaccination.
Results
Based on self-reports, coverage for BCG, diphtheria-pertussis-tetanus (DPT-3), oral polio-3, hepatitis-3, and measles vaccines ranged between 94–99%. Coverage for measles was below 75% in five lots. The relatively high educational and socioeconomic status of parents in the study group alone could not minimize the "considerable" risk of vaccine-preventable diseases in the District and dictates a continuity of efforts for improving vaccination rates, with special emphasis on measles. We believe that administrative methods should be backed up by household surveys to strengthen vaccination monitoring and that families should be trained and motivated to have their children fully vaccinated according to the recommended schedule and in a timely manner.
Conclusion
This study identified vaccine coverage for seven routine vaccines completed before the age of 24 months as well as the areas requiring special attention in vaccination services. The LQT, years after its introduction to health-related research, remains an appealing technique for rapid evaluation of the extent of a variety of local health concerns in developing countries, in rural areas in particular, and is very efficient in determining performance of individual subunits in a given service area. Training of local health personnel on use of the LQT could expedite response to local health problems and could even motivate them in conducting their own surveys tailored to their professional interests.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-8-240
PMCID: PMC2483711  PMID: 18631382
18.  Factors influencing childhood immunisation in an urban area of Brazil. 
STUDY OBJECTIVE--The aim was to examine the factors associated with incomplete vaccination in an urban area in Sao Paulo, Brazil; and to explore whether differences in vaccine coverage in the catchment area of health centres remain after the demographic constitution of the population in these areas is controlled for. DESIGN--The children were selected as controls for a case-control study. 455 children were selected at random (but age matched) from the health centre registries. Data was collected from the health centre records and from home interviews. SETTING--All children were registered in FAISA, a municipal health service comprising a large network of health centres and hospitals. FAISA's services are free at the point of delivery, and over 85% of the city's children are registered. PARTICIPANTS--Participants were selected to represent, except in their age distribution, all children registered in the municipal health service. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS--Information was collected on subjects' vaccine history, year of birth, sex, birth order and birth weight, and health centre of registration; their mothers' age, education, and marital status; and the family's income per capita and history of migration. Analysis was undertaken to identify risk factors for vaccination and whether the differential coverage in health centres' catchment areas remained after demographic characteristics of the population were controlled for. The high coverage for DPT and polio vaccines suggests that low overall coverage was not simply a result of mothers failing to bring children for vaccination. The variable that best predicted vaccine coverage was year of birth. Children born to immigrant mothers or into large families had lower vaccine uptake. The characteristics of children and their mothers did not account for the variation in vaccination coverage in catchment areas of different health centres. CONCLUSIONS--It is likely that in this area vaccination completeness was associated mainly with the health centre's ability to deliver vaccination to the target population.
PMCID: PMC1059599  PMID: 1431706
19.  Estimates of Pandemic Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe, 2009–2010: Results of Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe (I-MOVE) Multicentre Case-Control Study 
PLoS Medicine  2011;8(1):e1000388.
Results from a European multicentre case-control study reported by Marta Valenciano and colleagues suggest good protection by the pandemic monovalent H1N1 vaccine against pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine on H1N1.
Background
A multicentre case-control study based on sentinel practitioner surveillance networks from seven European countries was undertaken to estimate the effectiveness of 2009–2010 pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccines against medically attended influenza-like illness (ILI) laboratory-confirmed as pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1).
Methods and Findings
Sentinel practitioners swabbed ILI patients using systematic sampling. We included in the study patients meeting the European ILI case definition with onset of symptoms >14 days after the start of national pandemic vaccination campaigns. We compared pH1N1 cases to influenza laboratory-negative controls. A valid vaccination corresponded to >14 days between receiving a dose of vaccine and symptom onset. We estimated pooled vaccine effectiveness (VE) as 1 minus the odds ratio with the study site as a fixed effect. Using logistic regression, we adjusted VE for potential confounding factors (age group, sex, month of onset, chronic diseases and related hospitalizations, smoking history, seasonal influenza vaccinations, practitioner visits in previous year). We conducted a complete case analysis excluding individuals with missing values and a multiple multivariate imputation to estimate missing values. The multivariate imputation (n = 2902) adjusted pandemic VE (PIVE) estimates were 71.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 45.6–85.5) overall; 78.4% (95% CI 54.4–89.8) in patients <65 years; and 72.9% (95% CI 39.8–87.8) in individuals without chronic disease. The complete case (n = 1,502) adjusted PIVE were 66.0% (95% CI 23.9–84.8), 71.3% (95% CI 29.1–88.4), and 70.2% (95% CI 19.4–89.0), respectively. The adjusted PIVE was 66.0% (95% CI −69.9 to 93.2) if vaccinated 8–14 days before ILI onset. The adjusted 2009–2010 seasonal influenza VE was 9.9% (95% CI −65.2 to 50.9).
Conclusions
Our results suggest good protection of the pandemic monovalent vaccine against medically attended pH1N1 and no effect of the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine. However, the late availability of the pandemic vaccine and subsequent limited coverage with this vaccine hampered our ability to study vaccine benefits during the outbreak period. Future studies should include estimation of the effectiveness of the new trivalent vaccine in the upcoming 2010–2011 season, when vaccination will occur before the influenza season starts.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
Following the World Health Organization's declaration of pandemic phase six in June 2009, manufacturers developed vaccines against pandemic influenza A 2009 (pH1N1). On the basis of the scientific opinion of the European Medicines Agency, the European Commission initially granted marketing authorization to three pandemic vaccines for use in European countries. During the autumn of 2009, most European countries included the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine and the pandemic vaccine in their influenza vaccination programs.
The Influenza Monitoring Vaccine Effectiveness in Europe network (established to monitor seasonal and pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness) conducted seven case-control and three cohort studies in seven European countries in 2009–2010 to estimate the effectiveness of the pandemic and seasonal vaccines. Data from the seven pilot case-control studies were pooled to provide overall adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness.
Why Was This Study Done?
After seasonal and pandemic vaccines are made available to populations, it is necessary to estimate the effectiveness of the vaccines at the population level during every influenza season. Therefore, this study was conducted in European countries to estimate the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness and seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness against people presenting to their doctor with influenza-like illness who were confirmed (by laboratory tests) to be infected with pH1N1.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers conducted a multicenter case-control study on the basis of practitioner surveillance networks from seven countries—France, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Romania, Portugal, and Spain. Patients consulting a participating practitioner for influenza-like illness had a nasal or throat swab taken within 8 days of symptom onset. Cases were swabbed patients who tested positive for pH1N1. Patients presenting with influenza-like illness whose swab tested negative for any influenza virus were controls.
Individuals were considered vaccinated if they had received a dose of the vaccine more than 14 days before the date of onset of influenza-like illness and unvaccinated if they were not vaccinated at all, or if the vaccine was given less than 15 days before the onset of symptoms. The researchers analyzed pandemic influenza vaccination effectiveness in those vaccinated less than 8 days, those vaccinated between and including 8 and 14 days, and those vaccinated more than 14 days before onset of symptoms compared to those who had never been vaccinated.
The researchers used modeling (taking account of all potential confounding factors) to estimate adjusted vaccine effectiveness and stratified the adjusted pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness and the adjusted seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness in three age groups (<15, 15–64, and ≥65 years of age).
The adjusted results suggest that the 2009–2010 seasonal influenza vaccine did not protect against pH1N1 illness. However, one dose of the pandemic vaccines used in the participating countries conferred good protection (65.5%–100% according to various stratifications performed) against pH1N1 in people who attended their practitioner with influenza-like illness, especially in people aged <65 years and in those without any chronic disease. Furthermore, good pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness was observed as early as 8 days after vaccination.
What Do These Findings Mean?
The results of this study provide early estimates of the pandemic influenza vaccine effectiveness suggesting that the monovalent pandemic vaccines have been effective. The findings also give an indication of the vaccine effectiveness for the Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 strain included in the 2010–2011 seasonal vaccines, although specific vaccine effectiveness studies will have to be conducted to verify if similar good effectiveness are observed with 2010–2011 trivalent vaccines. However, the results of this study should be interpreted with caution because of limitations in the pandemic context (late timing of the studies, low incidence, low vaccine coverage leading to imprecise estimates) and potential biases due the study design, confounding factors, and missing values. The researchers recommend that in future season studies, the sample size per country should be enlarged in order to allow for precise pooled and stratified analyses.
Additional Information
Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1000388.
The World Health Organization has information on H1N1 vaccination
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provides a fact sheet on the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus
The US Department of Health and Human services has a comprehensive website on flu
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control provides information on 2009 H1N1 pandemic
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control presents a summary of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Europe and elsewhere
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000388
PMCID: PMC3019108  PMID: 21379316
20.  Ensemble Modeling of the Likely Public Health Impact of a Pre-Erythrocytic Malaria Vaccine 
PLoS Medicine  2012;9(1):e1001157.
Using an ensemble modeling approach, Thomas Smith and colleagues find that targeted mass vaccination with a pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S in low-transmission settings might have better health effects than vaccination through national EPI programs.
Background
The RTS,S malaria vaccine may soon be licensed. Models of impact of such vaccines have mainly considered deployment via the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in areas of stable endemic transmission of Plasmodium falciparum, and have been calibrated for such settings. Their applicability to low transmission settings is unclear. Evaluations of the efficiency of different deployment strategies in diverse settings should consider uncertainties in model structure.
Methods and Findings
An ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics, with differing assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and treatment access, was constructed. After fitting to an extensive library of field data, each model was used to predict the likely health benefits of RTS,S deployment, via EPI (with or without catch-up vaccinations), supplementary vaccination of school-age children, or mass vaccination every 5 y. Settings with seasonally varying transmission, with overall pre-intervention entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) of two, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum, were considered. Predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the simulated 14-y time horizon were dependent on duration of protection. Nevertheless, EPI strategies (with an initial catch-up phase) averted the most deaths per dose at the higher EIRs, although model uncertainty increased with EIR. At two infectious bites per person per annum, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose, even at modest coverage.
Conclusions
In higher transmission settings, EPI strategies will be most efficient, but vaccination additional to the EPI in targeted low transmission settings, even at modest coverage, might be more efficient than national-level vaccination of infants. The feasibility and economics of mass vaccination, and the circumstances under which vaccination will avert epidemics, remain unclear. The approach of using an ensemble of models provides more secure conclusions than a single-model approach, and suggests greater confidence in predictions of health effects for lower transmission settings than for higher ones.
Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary
Editors' Summary
Background
The World Health Organization estimates that there are over 200 million cases of malaria each year, and that more than three-quarters of a million people (mostly children living in sub-Saharan Africa) die as a result. Several Plasmodium parasites cause malaria, the most deadly being Plasmodium falciparum. Plasmodium parasites, which are transmitted to people through the bites of infected night-flying mosquitoes, cause recurring fever and can cause life-threatening organ damage. Malaria transmission can be prevented by using insecticides to control the mosquitoes that spread the parasite and by sleeping under insecticide-treated bed nets to avoid mosquito bites. Treatment with antimalarial drugs also reduces transmission. Together, these preventative measures have greatly reduced the global burden of malaria over recent years, but a malaria vaccine could be a valuable additional tool against the disease. At present there is no licensed malaria vaccine, but one promising vaccine—RTS,S—is currently undergoing phase III clinical trials (the last stage of testing before licensing) in infants and children in seven African countries.
Why Was This Study Done?
If the RTS,S vaccine fulfills its promise and is licensed, how should it be used to maximize its effect on the global malaria burden? Should it be given through the World Health Organization's Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), which aims to provide universal access to immunization against several infectious diseases during the first three months of life, for example, or through mass vaccination campaigns? Individual mathematical models have been used to investigate this type of question, but the predictions made by these models may be inaccurate because malaria immunity is poorly understood, because little is known about the levels of variability (heterogeneity) in host responses to malaria infection and in malaria transmission, and because it is unclear what the structure of models used to predict vaccine efficacy should be. In this study, the researchers use an “ensemble” approach to model the likely public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine. That is, they simultaneously consider the effect of the vaccine in multiple models of P. falciparum dynamics. Ensemble modeling is widely used in weather forecasting and has been used to investigate several other infectious diseases.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers constructed an ensemble of 14 individual-based stochastic simulation models of P. falciparum dynamics that included different assumptions about immune decay, transmission heterogeneity, and access to treatment. Such models simulate the passage of thousands of hypothetical individuals through different stages of malaria infection; movement between stages occurs stochastically (by chance) at a probability based on field data. Each model was used to predict the health benefits over 14 years of RTS,S deployment through EPI (with and without catch-up vaccination for infants who were not immunized during their first three months of life), through EPI and supplementary vaccination of school children, and through mass vaccination campaigns every five years at malaria transmission levels of 2, 11, and 20 infectious bites per person per annum (low, medium, and high entomological inoculation rates [EIRs], respectively). The predicted benefits of EPI vaccination programs over the 14-year period were modest and similar over a wide range of settings. However, EPI with an initial catch-up phase averted the most deaths per vaccine dose at higher EIRs. At the lowest EIR, mass vaccination strategies substantially reduced transmission, leading to much greater health effects per dose than other strategies, even at modest coverage.
What Do These Findings Mean?
The ensemble approach taken here suggests that targeted mass vaccination with RTS,S in low transmission settings may have greater health benefits than vaccination through national EPI programs. Importantly, this computer-intensive approach, which used computers made available over the internet by volunteers, provides more secure predictions than can be obtained using single models. In addition, it suggests that predictions made about the health effects of RTS,S vaccination for low transmission settings are more likely to be accurate than those made for higher transmission settings. However, this study only reports the first stages of using ensemble modeling to predict the health effects of RTS,S vaccination. Future studies will need to combine the outputs of multiple models with economic analyses to provide a rational basis for the design of vaccine-containing malaria control and elimination programs.
Additional Information
Please access these websites via the online version of this summary at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001157.
Information is available from the World Health Organization on malaria and on malaria immunization; the 2010 World Malaria Report provides details on the current global malaria situation; WHO also provides information on its Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI), and its Global Immunization Vision and Strategy (some information is available in several languages)
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention provide information on malaria (in English and Spanish), including a selection of personal stories about malaria
Information is available from the Roll Back Malaria Partnership on the global control of malaria and on malaria in Africa
The latest results from the phase III trial of RTS,S are available on the website of the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative, a global program of the international nonprofit organization PATH that aims to accelerate the development of malaria vaccines and ensure their availability and accessibility in the developing world
Wikipedia has a page on ensemble forecasting (note: Wikipedia is a free online encyclopedia that anyone can edit; available in several languages)
OpenMalaria is the open source simulator of malaria epidemiology and control used in this study; BOINC is the open source software for volunteer computing and grid computing that was used to run the simulations
MedlinePlus provides links to additional information on malaria and on immunization (in English and Spanish)
doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001157
PMCID: PMC3260300  PMID: 22272189
21.  Vaccination coverage and out-of-sequence vaccinations in rural Guinea-Bissau: an observational cohort study 
BMJ Open  2012;2(6):e001509.
Objective
The WHO aims for 90% coverage of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), which in Guinea-Bissau included BCG vaccine at birth, three doses of diphtheria−tetanus−pertussis vaccine (DTP) and oral polio vaccine (OPV) at 6, 10 and 14 weeks and measles vaccine (MV) at 9 months when this study was conducted. The WHO assesses coverage by 12 months of age. The sequence of vaccines may have an effect on child mortality, but is not considered in official statistics or assessments of programme performance. We assessed vaccination coverage and frequency of out-of-sequence vaccinations by 12 and 24 months of age.
Design
Observational cohort study.
Setting and participants
The Bandim Health Project's (BHP) rural Health and Demographic Surveillance site covers 258 randomly selected villages in all regions of Guinea-Bissau. Villages are visited biannually and vaccination cards inspected to ascertain vaccination status. Between 2003 and 2009 vaccination status by 12 months of age was assessed for 5806 children aged 12–23 months; vaccination status by 24 months of age was assessed for 3792 children aged 24–35 months.
Outcome measures
Coverage of EPI vaccinations and frequency of out-of-sequence vaccinations.
Results
Half of 12-month-old children and 65% of 24-month-old children had completed all EPI vaccinations. Many children received vaccines out of sequence: by 12 months of age 54% of BCG-vaccinated children had received DTP with or before BCG and 28% of measles-vaccinated children had received DTP with or after MV. By 24 months of age the proportion of out-of-sequence vaccinations was 58% and 35%, respectively, for BCG and MV.
Conclusions
In rural Guinea-Bissau vaccination coverage by 12 months of age was low, but continued to increase beyond 12 months of age. More than half of all children received vaccinations out of sequence. This highlights the need to improve vaccination services.
doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2012-001509
PMCID: PMC3532986  PMID: 23166127
22.  Immunization Status of Children Admitted to a Tertiary-care Hospital of North India: Reasons for Partial Immunization or Non-immunization 
Reasons for the low coverage of immunization vary from logistic ones to those dependent on human behaviour. The study was planned to find out: (a) the immunization status of children admitted to a paediatric ward of tertiary-care hospital in Delhi, India and (b) reasons for partial immunization and non-immunization. Parents of 325 consecutively-admitted children aged 12–60 months were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. A child who had missed any of the vaccines given under the national immunization programme till one year of age was classified as partially-immunized while those who had not received any vaccine up to 12 months of age or received only pulse polio vaccine were classified as non-immunized. Reasons for partial/non-immunization were recorded using open-ended questions. Of the 325 children (148 males, 177 females), 58 (17.84%) were completely immunized, 156 (48%) were partially immunized, and 111 (34.15%) were non-immunized. Mothers were the primary respondents in 84% of the cases. The immunization card was available with 31.3% of the patients. All 214 partially- or completely-immunized children received BCG, 207 received OPV/DPT1, 182 received OPV/DPT2, 180 received OPV/DPT3, and 115 received measles vaccines. Most (96%) received pulse polio immunization, including 98 of the 111 non-immunized children. The immunization status varied significantly (p<0.05) with sex, education of parents, urban/rural background, route and place of delivery. On logistic regression, place of delivery [odds ratio (OR): 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3–4.1], maternal education (OR=6.94, 95% CI 3.1–15.1), and religion (OR=1.75, 95% CI 1.2–3.1) were significant (p<0.05). The most common reasons for partial or non-immunization were: inadequate knowledge about immunization or subsequent dose (n=140, 52.4%); belief that vaccine has side-effects (n=77, 28.8%); lack of faith in immunization (n=58, 21.7%); or oral polio vaccine is the only vaccine required (n=56, 20.9%. Most (82.5%) children admitted to a tertiary-care hospital were partially immunized or non-immunized. The immunization status needs to be improved by education, increasing awareness, and counselling of parents and caregivers regarding immunizations and associated misconceptions as observed in the study.
PMCID: PMC2980896  PMID: 20635642
Child; Immunization; Vaccination; India
23.  Vaccination of children with a live-attenuated, intranasal influenza vaccine – analysis and evaluation through a Health Technology Assessment 
Background: Influenza is a worldwide prevalent infectious disease of the respiratory tract annually causing high morbidity and mortality in Germany. Influenza is preventable by vaccination and this vaccination is so far recommended by the The German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) as a standard vaccination for people from the age of 60 onwards. Up to date a parenterally administered trivalent inactivated vaccine (TIV) has been in use almost exclusively. Since 2011 however a live-attenuated vaccine (LAIV) has been approved additionally. Consecutively, since 2013 the STIKO recommends LAIV (besides TIV) for children from 2 to 17 years of age, within the scope of vaccination by specified indications. LAIV should be preferred administered in children from 2 to 6 of age. The objective of this Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is to address various research issues regarding the vaccination of children with LAIV. The analysis was performed from a medical, epidemiological and health economic perspective, as well as from an ethical, social and legal point of view.
Method: An extensive systematic database research was performed to obtain relevant information. In addition a supplementary research by hand was done. Identified literature was screened in two passes by two independent reviewers using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Included literature was evaluated in full-text using acknowledged standards. Studies were graded with the highest level of evidence (1++), if they met the criteria of European Medicines Agency (EMA)-Guidance: Points to consider on applications with 1. meta-analyses; 2. one pivotal study.
Results: For the medical section, the age of the study participants ranges from 6 months to 17 years. Regarding study efficacy, in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years, LAIV is superior to placebo as well as to a vac-cination with TIV (Relative Risk Reduction – RRR – of laboratory confirmed influenza infection approx. 80% and 50%, respectively). In children aged >7 to 17 years (= 18th year of their lives), LAIV is superior to a vaccination with TIV (RRR 32%). For this age group, no studies that compared LAIV with placebo were identified. It can be concluded that there is high evidence for superior efficacy of LAIV (compared to placebo or TIV) among children aged 6 months to ≤7 years. For children from >7 to 17 years, there is moderate evidence for superiority of LAIV for children with asthma, while direct evidence for children from the general population is lacking for this age group. Due to the efficacy of LAIV in children aged 6 months to ≤7 years (high evidence) and the efficacy of LAIV in children with asthma aged >7 to 17 years (moderate evidence), LAIV is also very likely to be efficacious among children in the general population aged >7 to 17 years (indirect evidence). In the included studies with children aged 2 to 17 years, LAIV was safe and well-tolerated; while in younger children LAIV may increase the risk of obstruction of the airways (e.g. wheezing).
In the majority of the evaluated epidemiological studies, LAIV proved to be effective in the prevention of influenza among children aged 2–17 years under everyday conditions (effectiveness). The trend appears to indicate that LAIV is more effective than TIV, although this can only be based on limited evidence for methodological reasons (observational studies). In addition to a direct protective effect for vaccinated children themselves, indirect protective ("herd protection") effects were reported among non-vaccinated elderly population groups, even at relatively low vaccination coverage of children. With regard to safety, LAIV generally can be considered equivalent to TIV. This also applies to the use among children with mild chronically obstructive conditions, from whom LAIV therefore does not have to be withheld. In all included epidemiological studies, there was some risk of bias identified, e.g. due to residual confounding or other methodology-related sources of error.
In the evaluated studies, both the vaccination of children with previous illnesses and the routine vaccination of (healthy) children frequently involve cost savings. This is especially the case if one includes indirect costs from a societal perspective. From a payer perspective, a routine vaccination of children is often regarded as a highly cost-effective intervention. However, not all of the studies arrive at consistent results. In isolated cases, relatively high levels of cost-effectiveness are reported that make it difficult to perform a conclusive assessment from an economic perspective. Based on the included studies, it is not possible to make a clear statement about the budget impact of using LAIV. None of the evaluated studies provides results for the context of the German healthcare setting.
The efficacy of the vaccine, physicians' recommendations, and a potential reduction in influenza symptoms appear to play a role in the vaccination decision taken by parents/custodians on behalf of their children. Major barriers to the utilization of influenza vaccination services are a low level of perception and an underestimation of the disease risk, reservations concerning the safety and efficacy of the vaccine, and potential side effects of the vaccine. For some of the parents surveyed, the question as to whether the vaccine is administered as an injection or nasal spray might also be important.
Conclusion: In children aged 2 to 17 years, the use of LAIV can lead to a reduction of the number of influenza cases and the associated burden of disease. In addition, indirect preventive effects may be expected, especially among elderly age groups. Currently there are no data available for the German healthcare setting. Long-term direct and indirect effectiveness and safety should be supported by surveillance programs with a broader use of LAIV.
Since there is no general model available for the German healthcare setting, statements concerning the cost-effectiveness can be made only with precaution. Beside this there is a need to conduct health eco-nomic studies to show the impact of influenza vaccination for children in Germany. Such studies should be based on a dynamic transmission model. Only these models are able to include the indirect protective effects of vaccination correctly.
With regard to ethical, social and legal aspects, physicians should discuss with parents the motivations for vaccinating their children and upcoming barriers in order to achieve broader vaccination coverage.
The present HTA provides an extensive basis for further scientific approaches and pending decisions relating to health policy.
doi:10.3205/hta000119
PMCID: PMC4219018  PMID: 25371764
Health Technology Assessment; HTA; LAIV; live attenuated vaccine; TIV; trivalent inactivated vaccine
24.  Equity and vaccine uptake: a cross-sectional study of measles vaccination in Lasbela District, Pakistan 
Background
Achieving equity means increased uptake of health services for those who need it most. But the poorest families continue to have the poorest service. In Pakistan, large numbers of children do not access vaccination against measles despite the national government's effort to achieve universal coverage.
Methods
A cross-sectional study of a random sample of 23 rural and 9 urban communities in the Lasbela district of south Pakistan, explored knowledge, attitudes and discussion around measles vaccination. Several socioeconomic variables allowed examination of the role of inequities in vaccination uptake; 2479 mothers provided information about 4007 children aged 10 to 59 months. A Mantel-Haenszel stratification analysis, with and without adjustment for clustering, clarified determinants of measles vaccination in urban and rural areas.
Results
A high proportion of mothers had appropriate knowledge of and positive attitudes to vaccination; many discussed vaccination, but only one half of children aged 10-59 months accessed vaccination. In urban areas, having an educated mother, discussing vaccinations, having correct knowledge about vaccinations, living in a community with a government vaccination facility within 5 km, and living in houses with better roofs were associated with vaccination uptake after adjusting for the effect of each of these variables and for clustering; maternal education was an equity factor even among those with good access. In rural areas, the combination of roof quality and access (vaccination post within 5 km) along with discussion about vaccines and knowledge about vaccines had an effect on uptake.
Conclusion
Stagnating rates of vaccination coverage may be related to increasing inequities. A hopeful finding is that discussion about vaccines and knowledge about vaccines had a positive effect that was independent of the negative effect of inequity - in both urban and rural areas. At least as a short term strategy, there seems to be reason to expect an intervention increasing knowledge and discussion about vaccination in this district might increase uptake.
doi:10.1186/1472-698X-9-S1-S7
PMCID: PMC3226239  PMID: 19828065
25.  Yellow fever vaccination coverage following massive emergency immunization campaigns in rural Uganda, May 2011: a community cluster survey 
BMC Public Health  2013;13:202.
Background
Following an outbreak of yellow fever in northern Uganda in December 2010, Ministry of Health conducted a massive emergency vaccination campaign in January 2011. The reported vaccination coverage in Pader District was 75.9%. Administrative coverage though timely, is affected by incorrect population estimates and over or under reporting of vaccination doses administered. This paper presents the validated yellow fever vaccination coverage following massive emergency immunization campaigns in Pader district.
Methods
A cross sectional cluster survey was carried out in May 2011 among communities in Pader district and 680 respondents were indentified using the modified World Health Organization (WHO) 40 × 17 cluster survey sampling methodology. Respondents were aged nine months and above. Interviewer administered questionnaires were used to collect data on demographic characteristics, vaccination status and reasons for none vaccination. Vaccination status was assessed using self reports and vaccination card evidence. Our main outcomes were measures of yellow fever vaccination coverage in each age-specific stratum, overall, and disaggregated by age and sex, adjusting for the clustered design and the size of the population in each stratum.
Results
Of the 680 survey respondents, 654 (96.1%, 95% CI 94.9 – 97.8) reported being vaccinated during the last campaign but only 353 (51.6%, 95% CI 47.2 – 56.1) had valid yellow fever vaccination cards. Of the 280 children below 5 years, 269 (96.1%, 95% CI 93.7 – 98.7) were vaccinated and nearly all males 299 (96.9%, 95% CI 94.3 – 99.5) were vaccinated. The main reasons for none vaccination were; having travelled out of Pader district during the campaign period (40.0%), lack of transport to immunization posts (28.0%) and, sickness at the time of vaccination (16.0%).
Conclusions
Our results show that actual yellow fever vaccination coverage was high and satisfactory in Pader district since it was above the desired minimum threshold coverage of 80% according to World Health Organization. Massive emergency vaccination done following an outbreak of Yellow fever achieved high population coverage in Pader district. Active surveillance is necessary for early detection of yellow fever cases.
doi:10.1186/1471-2458-13-202
PMCID: PMC3608017  PMID: 23497254
Yellow fever; Vaccination; Cluster survey; Evaluation; Pader

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