Related Articles

Background

Mortality is a widely used, but often criticised, quality indicator for hospitals. In many countries, mortality is calculated from in-hospital deaths, due to limited access to follow-up data on patients transferred between hospitals and on discharged patients. The objectives were to: i) summarize time, place and cause of death for first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture, ii) compare case-mix adjusted 30-day mortality measures based on in-hospital deaths and in-and-out-of hospital deaths, with and without patients transferred to other hospitals.

Methods

Norwegian hospital data within a 5-year period were merged with information from official registers. Mortality based on in-and-out-of-hospital deaths, weighted according to length of stay at each hospital for transferred patients (W30D), was compared to a) mortality based on in-and-out-of-hospital deaths excluding patients treated at two or more hospitals (S30D), and b) mortality based on in-hospital deaths (IH30D). Adjusted mortalities were estimated by logistic regression which, in addition to hospital, included age, sex and stage of disease. The hospitals were assigned outlier status according to the Z-values for hospitals in the models; low mortality: Z-values below the 5-percentile, high mortality: Z-values above the 95-percentile, medium mortality: remaining hospitals.

Results

The data included 48 048 AMI patients, 47 854 stroke patients and 40 142 hip fracture patients from 55, 59 and 58 hospitals, respectively. The overall relative frequencies of deaths within 30 days were 19.1% (AMI), 17.6% (stroke) and 7.8% (hip fracture). The cause of death diagnoses included the referral diagnosis for 73.8-89.6% of the deaths within 30 days. When comparing S30D versus W30D outlier status changed for 14.6% (AMI), 15.3% (stroke) and 36.2% (hip fracture) of the hospitals. For IH30D compared to W30D outlier status changed for 18.2% (AMI), 25.4% (stroke) and 27.6% (hip fracture) of the hospitals.

Conclusions

Mortality measures based on in-hospital deaths alone, or measures excluding admissions for transferred patients, can be misleading as indicators of hospital performance. We propose to attribute the outcome to all hospitals by fraction of time spent in each hospital for patients transferred between hospitals to reduce bias due to double counting or exclusion of hospital stays.

The Health Care Financing Administration of the Department of Health and Human Services has carried out for several years the systematic assessment of variations over time and among geographic locales in patterns of care and patterns of outcomes experienced by Medicare beneficiaries. This routine monitoring focuses principally on hospitalizations and their outcomes (death and readmission) and is based on the Medicare enrollment file and the claims file for inpatient care. The period 1985-88 has been marked by declining adjusted post-admission risks for mortality (down 4 percent) and readmission (down 6 percent) for Medicare beneficiaries. The downward trend in mortality risks is most evident following hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (down 8 percent) and stroke (down 12 percent). Hospital admission and population mortality rates, adjusted for differences in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the populations, vary substantially among areas as large as States and Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as do risk-adjusted post admission probabilities of death among those areas and among hospitals. Thus, if overall admission and mortality rates in the upper three quartiles of Metropolitan Statistical Areas were brought down to the average of the lowest quartile, there would be 20 percent fewer admissions and 12 percent fewer deaths within 180 days of admission for hospitalized patients. Although favorable trends in the effectiveness of the hospital care received by Medicare beneficiaries appear discernible, the existence of substantial variations suggests that further improvement may be possible.

BACKGROUND:

Recent clinical trials have demonstrated benefit with early revascularization following acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Trends in and the association between early revascularization after (ie, 30 days or fewer) AMI and early death were determined.

METHODS AND RESULTS:

The Statistics Canada Health Person-Oriented Information Database, consisting of hospital discharge records for seven provinces from the Canadian Institute for Health Information Hospital Morbidity Database, was used. If there was no AMI in the preceding year, the first AMI visit within a fiscal year for a patient 20 years of age or older was included. Times to death in hospital and to revascularization procedures were counted from the admission date of the first AMI visit. Mixed model regression analyses with random slopes were used to assess the relationship between early revascularization and mortality. The overall rate of revascularization within 30 days of AMI increased significantly from 12.5% in 1995 to 37.4% in 2003, while the 30-day mortality rate decreased significantly from 13.5% to 10.6%. There was a linearly decreasing relationship – higher regional use of revascularization was associated with lower mortality in both men and women.

CONCLUSIONS:

These population-based utilization and outcome findings are consistent with clinical trial evidence of improved 30-day in-hospital mortality with increased early revascularization after AMI.

Background

Rates of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases have been steadily declining over the past few decades. Whether such declines are occurring to a similar degree for common disorders such as acute myocardial infarction, heart failure and stroke is uncertain. We examined recent national trends in mortality and rates of hospital admission for these 3 conditions.

Methods

We analyzed mortality data from Statistic Canada’s Canadian Mortality Database and data on hospital admissions from the Canadian Institute for Health Information’s Hospital Morbidity Database for the period 1994–2004. We determined age- and sex-standardized rates of death and hospital admissions per 100 000 population aged 20 years and over as well as in-hospital case-fatality rates.

Results

The overall age- and sex-standardized rate of death from cardiovascular disease in Canada declined 30.0%, from 360.6 per 100 000 in 1994 to 252.5 per 100 000 in 2004. During the same period, the rate fell 38.1% for acute myocardial infarction, 23.5% for heart failure and 28.2% for stroke, with improvements observed across most age and sex groups. The age- and sex-standardized rate of hospital admissions decreased 27.6% for stroke and 27.2% for heart failure. The rate for acute myocardial infarction fell only 9.2%. In contrast, the relative decline in the inhospital case-fatality rate was greatest for acute myocardial infarction (33.1%; p < 0.001). Much smaller relative improvements in case-fatality rates were noted for heart failure (8.1%) and stroke (8.9%).

Interpretation

The rates of death and hospital admissions for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure and stroke in Canada changed at different rates over the 10-year study period. Awareness of these trends may guide future efforts for health promotion and health care planning and help to determine priorities for research and treatment.

Fewer than 25% of people diagnosed during life as being demented were found to have this diagnosis coded as the underlying cause of death. In a sample of deaths certified as due to dementia the majority were found to have occurred in long-stay institutions. This distorts the geographical pattern of mortality because the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) considers these institutions to be the patient's usual address six months after his admission. Analysis of all certified deaths from dementia during 1968-78 by place of residence shows that areas with a significantly high SMR usually contain a large psychiatric hospital. Changes in diagnostic fashion and in the procedure by which OPCS selects the underlying cause of death have also affected numbers of deaths coded as dementia. Death certificate data are unlikely to be useful in examining either geographical variation or time trends in rates of dementia.

Background

Hip fractures are a public health problem, leading to hospitalization, long-term rehabilitation, reduced quality of life, large healthcare expenses, and a high 1-year mortality. Especially older adults are at greater risk of fractures than the general population, due to the combination of an increased fall risk and osteoporosis. The aim of this study was to determine time trends in numbers and incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospitalizations and admission duration in the older Dutch population.

Methods and Findings

Secular trend analysis of all hospitalizations in the older Dutch population (≥65 years) from 1981 throughout 2008, using the National Hospital Discharge Registry. Numbers, age-specific and age-adjusted incidence rates (per 10,000 persons) of hospital admissions and hospital days due to a hip fracture were used as outcome measures in each year of the study. Between 1981 and 2008, the absolute number of hip fractures doubled in the older Dutch population. Incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospital admissions increased with age, and were higher in women than in men. The age-adjusted incidence rate increased from 52.0 to 67.6 per 10,000 older persons. However, since 1994 the incidence rate decreased (percentage annual change −0.5%, 95% CI: −0.7; −0.3), compared with the period 1981–1993 (percentage annual change 2.3%, 95% CI: 2.0; 2.7). The total number of hospital days was reduced by a fifth, due to a reduced admission duration in all age groups. A possible limitation was that data were obtained from a linked administrative database, which did not include information on medication use or co-morbidities.

Conclusions

A trend break in the incidence rates of hip fracture-related hospitalizations was observed in the Netherlands around 1994, possibly as a first result of efforts to prevent falls and fractures. However, the true cause of the observation is unknown.

OBJECTIVE—To examine the relation between trends over time in mortality and hospital morbidity caused by various cardiovascular diseases in the Netherlands.
DESIGN—Trend analysis by Poisson regression of national data on mortality and hospital admissions from 1975 to 1995.
SUBJECTS—The Dutch population.
RESULTS—All cardiovascular diseases combined were responsible for 39% of all deaths and 16% of all hospital admissions in 1995. From 1975 to 1995, age adjusted cardiovascular mortality declined by an annual change of −2.0% (95% confidence intervals (CI) −2.1% to −1.9%), while in the same period age adjusted discharge rates increased annually by 1.3% (95% CI 1.1% to 1.5%). Around 60% of the gain in life expectancy in this period was related to lower cardiovascular mortality. For mortality, major reductions were seen in coronary heart disease (annual change −2.9%) and in stroke (−2.1%), whereas the increase in hospital admissions was mainly caused by chronic manifestations of coronary heart disease (5.1%), heart failure (2.1%), and diseases of the arteries (1.8%). In recent years, the gap between men and women at risk of dying from coronary heart disease became smaller for those aged ⩽ 65 years.
CONCLUSIONS—Our findings of a decrease in cardiovascular mortality and an increase in admission rates for chronic conditions such as heart failure, chronic coronary syndromes, and diseases of the arteries, support the hypothesis that the longer survival of many patients with heart diseases is leading to a growing pool of patients at increased risk for subsequent cardiovascular complications in Western countries.


Keywords: epidemiology; time trends; mortality; hospital admissions; Netherlands

OBJECTIVE: To examine 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction as an outcome indicator, and explore the effects of adjusting for available prognostic factors such as age, sex, co-morbidity, deprivation, and deaths outside hospital. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: The Scottish Record Linkage System was analysed. This national data-base links inpatient data to death certificate information for a population of 5.1 million. SUBJECTS: All 40,371 admissions to hospital with a principal diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, plus all 18,452 deaths outside hospital with a principal cause of death registered as acute myocardial infarction (ICD9 code 410) during 1988-1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The outcome event was death from any cause, within hospital or elsewhere, within 30 days of admission. RESULTS: During 1988-1991, 30 day survival after acute myocardial infarction was 77% in 40,371 hospital admissions, but only 53% when 18,452 acute myocardial infarction deaths in the community were included (a population-based outcome indicator with many advantages). Using logistic regression at an individual patient level, the odds of dying within 30 days effectively doubled for each decade of age (odds ratio compared with patients aged under 55: 2.3 aged 55-64, 4.4 aged 65-74, 8.2 aged 75-84, 12.0 aged 85 plus); were marginally higher in females than in males (odds ratio 1.07); were almost doubled in patients with a history of previous infarction, coronary heart disease, or other heart disease, and were also significantly increased in patients with circulatory disease, respiratory disease, neoplasm, or diabetes. Socioeconomic deprivation had no significant effect. Marked variations in survival between different hospitals and health board areas persisted, even after adjusting for the above prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: One month survival after acute myocardial infarction could be a useful means of measuring outcome of hospital care. There was important geographical variation in one month survival. These differences could be accounted for by variations in referral, admission, diagnosis, definition, and coding. These variables merit further research and local clinical audit before one month survival after acute myocardial infarction can be reliably used for detecting differences in quality of care. In addition, it would be essential to take account of infarct severity.

Objective

To examine the source of observed lower risk-adjusted mortality for blacks than whites within the Veterans Affairs (VA) system by accounting for hospital site where treated, potential under-reporting of black deaths, discretion on hospital admission, quality improvement efforts, and interactions by age group.

Data Sources

Data are from the VA Patient Treatment File on 406,550 hospitalizations of veterans admitted with a principal diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, stroke, hip fracture, gastrointestinal bleeding, congestive heart failure, or pneumonia between 1996 and 2002. Information on deaths was obtained from the VA Beneficiary Identification Record Locator System and the National Death Index.

Study Design

This was a retrospective observational study of hospitalizations throughout the VA system nationally. The primary outcome studied was all-location mortality within 30 days of hospital admission. The key study variable was whether a patient was black or white.

Principal Findings

For each of the six study conditions, unadjusted 30-day mortality rates were significantly lower for blacks than for whites (p < 0.01). These results did not vary after adjusting for hospital site where treated, more complete ascertainment of deaths, and in comparing results for conditions for which hospital admission is discretionary versus nondiscretionary. There were also no significant changes in the degree of difference by race in mortality by race following quality improvement efforts within VA. Risk-adjusted mortality was consistently lower for blacks than for whites only within the population of veterans over age 65.

Conclusions

Black veterans have significantly lower 30-day mortality than white veterans for six common, high severity conditions, but this is generally limited to veterans over age 65. This differential by age suggests that it is unlikely that lower 30-day mortality rates among blacks within VA are driven by treatment differences by race.

Background

It’s unknown whether the prognostic value of admission heart rate (HR) was different in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with or without concomitant type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

Methods

Consecutive STEMI patients who presented within 12 hours of symptom onset were recruited from 274 hospitals in China. Participants were stratified into quartiles by admission HR. Baseline characteristics, current therapeutic recommenda- tions, laboratory biochemical tests, 30-day all-cause mortality and Cardiovascular Events (CVE, including all-cause death, reinfarction and stroke) were compared across admission HR quartiles.

Results

We evaluated 7294 STEMI patients, of these 820 (11.2%) had known T2DM. The admission HR quartile stratification was significantly associated with all-cause mortality and CVE regardless of T2DM status (P < 0.001 both for survival and CVE). After adjusted other risk factors, in patients without T2DM, comparing with HR <66 b.p.m., the increase of HR level was associated with worse prognosis (P < 0.05). In patients with T2DM, the hazard ratios for 30-day CVE were 1.75 (95%CI), 1.92 (95%CI), 3.00 (95%CI) in the HR of 66–76 b.p.m., 77–88 b.p.m., and >88 b.p.m., respectively. Results were similar for 30-day all-cause mortality, but the hazard ratios in Q2 (P = 0.139 and P =0.086 for survival and CVE, respectively) and Q3 groups were non-significant (P = 0.072 and P =0.033 for survival and CVE, respectively). There was a significant interaction effect of HR and T2DM on 30-day CVE mortality (P = 0.035), which was not found on all-cause mortality (P = 0.126).

Conclusion

Admission heart rate was an important risk factor of 30-day all-cause mortality and CVE in patients with STEMI with or without T2DM. However, the predictive effect was modified by T2DM.

Background: Population based mortality rates from liver cirrhosis, and alcohol consumption, have increased sharply in Britain in the past 35 years. Little is known about the long term trends over time in mortality rates after hospital admission for liver cirrhosis.

Aims: To analyse time trends in mortality in the year after admission for liver cirrhosis from 1968 to 1999.

Subjects: A total of 8192 people who were admitted to hospital in a defined population of Southern England.

Methods: Analysis of hospital discharge statistics linked to death certificate data. The main outcome measures were case fatality rates (CFRs) and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs).

Results: At 30 days after admission, CFR was 15.9% and the SMR was 93 (86 in men and 102 in women, compared with 1 in the general population). At one year, the overall CFR was 33.6% and SMR was 16.3. There was no improvement from 1968 to 1999 in mortality rates. SMRs were highest for alcoholic cirrhosis of the liver (27.4 at one year) but lower for biliary cirrhosis (11.4) and chronic hepatitis (10.0). Mortality from most of the main causes of death, including accidents and suicides, was increased.

Conclusions: The high mortality rates after hospital admission, and the fact that they have not fallen in the past 30 years, show that liver cirrhosis remains a disease with a very poor prognosis. Increased mortality from accidents, suicides, and mental disorders, particularly among those with alcoholic cirrhoses, indicates that prognosis is influenced by behavioural as well as by physical pathology.

Objectives To investigate time trends in mortality after admission to hospital for fractured neck of femur from 1968 to 1998, and to report on the effects of demographic factors on mortality.

Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for fractured neck of femur, incorporating linkage to death certificates.

Setting Four counties in southern England.

Subjects 32 590 people aged 65 years or over admitted to hospital with fractured neck of femur between 1968 and 1998.

Main outcome measures Case fatality rates at 30, 90, and 365 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.

Results Case fatality rates declined between the 1960s and the early 1980s, but there was no appreciable fall thereafter. They increased sharply with increasing age: for example, fatality rates at 30 days in 1984-98 increased from 4% in men aged 64-69 years to 31% in those aged ≥ 90. They were higher in men than women, and in social classes IV and V than in classes I and II. In the first month after fracture, standardised mortality ratios in women were 16 times higher, and those in men 12 times higher, than mortality in the same age group in the general population.

Conclusions The high mortality rates, and the fact that they have not fallen over the past 20 years, reinforce the need for measures to prevent osteoporosis and falls and their consequences in elderly people. Whether post-fracture mortality has fallen to an irreducible minimum, or whether further decline is possible, is unclear.

Background

Gallstones represent the most common cause of acute pancreatitis in Sweden. Epidemiological data concerning timing of cholecystectomy and sphincterotomy in patients with first attack of mild acute biliary pancreatitis (MABP) are scarce. Our aim was to analyse readmissions for biliary disease, cholecystectomy within one year, and mortality within 90 days of index admission for MABP.

Methods

Hospital discharge and death certificate data were linked for patients with first attack acute pancreatitis in Sweden 1988-2003. Mortality was calculated as case fatality rate (CFR) and standardized mortality ratio (SMR). MABP was defined as acute pancreatitis of biliary aetiology without mortality during an index stay of 10 days or shorter. Patients were analysed according to four different treatment policies: Cholecystectomy during index stay (group 1), no cholecystectomy during index stay but within 30 days of index admission (group 2), sphincterotomy but not cholecystectomy within 30 days of index admission (group 3), and neither cholecystectomy nor sphincterotomy within 30 days of index admission (group 4).

Results

Of 11636 patients with acute biliary pancreatitis, 8631 patients (74%) met the criteria for MABP. After exclusion of those with cholecystectomy or sphincterotomy during the year before index admission (N = 212), 8419 patients with MABP remained for analysis. Patients in group 1 and 2 were significantly younger than patients in group 3 and 4. Length of index stay differed significantly between the groups, from 4 (3-6) days, (representing median, 25 and 75 percentiles) in group 2 to 7 (5-8) days in groups 1. In group 1, 4.9% of patients were readmitted at least once for biliary disease within one year after index admission, compared to 100% in group 2, 62.5% in group 3, and 76.3% in group 4. One year after index admission, 30.8% of patients in group 3 and 47.7% of patients in group 4 had undergone cholecystectomy. SMR did not differ between the four groups.

Conclusion

Cholecystectomy during index stay slightly prolongs this stay, but drastically reduces readmissions for biliary indications.

All 662 patients admitted to the two coronary care units in Nottingham during 12 consecutive months were followed up prospectively for one year. At the time of discharge from hospital they were categorised according to set criteria into the following diagnostic groups: definite, probable, or possible myocardial infarction; ischaemia heart disease without infarction; chest pain ?cause; and other diagnoses. Eighty-nine patients (13% of admissions) were categorised as having chest pain ?cause. No deaths occurred among these patients during the observation period, although two were readmitted with myocardial infarction. Patients with chest pain ?cause had few problems during the year after admission, and at the end of that time 75% were in their original employment. Patients admitted with ischaemic heart disease had a similar death rate (between six weeks and one year after admission) to those with myocardial infarction, and only 36% were in their original employment one year after admission. Chest pain ?cause is a clinically useful diagnostic category to which patients may be allocated after only simple investigations.

Background and Objective

To compare levels of and trends in incidence and hospital mortality of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) based on routinely collected hospital morbidity data and on linked registers. Cases taken from routine hospital data are a mix of patients with recurrent and first events, and double counting occurs when cases are admitted for an event several times during 1 year. By linkage of registers, recurrent events and double counts can be excluded.

Study Design and Setting

In 1995 and 2000, 28,733 and 25,864 admissions for AMI were registered in the Dutch national hospital discharge register. Linkage with the population register yielded 21,565 patients with a first AMI in 1995 and 20,414 in 2000.

Results

In 1995 and 2000, the incidence based on the hospital register was higher than based on the linked registers in men (22% and 23% higher) and women (18% and 20% higher). In both years, hospital mortality based on the hospital register and on linked registers was similar. The decline in incidence between 1995 and 2000 was comparable whether based on standard hospital register data or linked data (18% and 20% in men, 15% and 17% in women). Similarly, the decline in hospital mortality was comparable using either approach (11% and 9% in both men and women).

Conclusion

Although the incidence based on routine hospital data overestimates the actual incidence of first AMI based on linked registers, hospital mortality and trends in incidence and hospital mortality are not changed by excluding recurrent events and double counts. Since trends in incidence and hospital mortality of AMI are often based on national routinely collected data, it is reassuring that our results indicate that findings from such studies are indeed valid and not biased because of recurrent events and double counts.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-007-9174-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background

Coronary heart disease is the leading cause of mortality in the world. One of the outcome indicators recently used to measure hospital performance is 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This indicator has proven to be a valid and reproducible indicator of the appropriateness and effectiveness of the diagnostic and therapeutic process for AMI patients after hospital admission. The aim of this study was to examine the determinants of inter-hospital variability on 30-day in-hospital mortality after AMI in Tuscany. This indicator is a proxy of 30-day mortality that includes only deaths occurred during the index or subsequent hospitalizations.

Methods

The study population was identified from hospital discharge records (HDRs) and included all patients with primary or secondary ICD-9-CM codes of AMI (ICD-9 codes 410.xx) that were discharged between January 1, 2009 and November 30, 2009 from any hospital in Tuscany. The outcome of interest was 30-day all-cause in-hospital mortality, defined as a death occurring for any reason in the hospital within 30 days of the admission date. Because of the hierarchical structure of the data, with patients clustered into hospitals, random-effects (multilevel) logistic regression models were used. The models included patient risk factors and random intercepts for each hospital.

Results

The study included 5,832 patients, 61.90% male, with a mean age of 72.38 years. During the study period, 7.99% of patients died within 30 days of admission. The 30-day in-hospital mortality rate was significantly higher among patients with ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) compared with those with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). The multilevel analysis which included only the hospital variance showed a significant inter-hospital variation in 30-day in-hospital mortality. When patient characteristics were added to the model, the hospital variance decreased. The multilevel analysis was then carried out separately in the two strata of patients with STEMI and NSTEMI. In the STEMI group, after adjusting for patient characteristics, some residual inter-hospital variation was found, and was related to the presence of a cardiac catheterisation laboratory.

Conclusion

We have shown that it is possible to use routinely collected administrative data to predict mortality risk and to highlight inter-hospital differences. The distinction between STEMI and NSTEMI proved to be useful to detect organisational characteristics, which affected only the STEMI subgroup.

OBJECTIVES

Early re-hospitalizations have been well characterized in many disease states, but not among patients with cirrhosis. The aims of this study were to identify the frequency, costs, predictors, and preventable causes of hospital re-admissions among patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

Rates of re-admission were calculated for 402 patients discharged after one of the following complications of cirrhosis: ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, renal failure, hepatic encephalopathy or variceal hemorrhage. Costs of re-admissions were calculated using the hospital accounting system. Predictors of time to first re-admission were determined using Cox regression, and predictors of hospitalization rate/person-years using negative binomial regression. The independent association between re-admission rate and mortality was determined using Cox regression. Admissions within 30 days of discharge were assessed by two reviewers to determine if preventable.

RESULTS

276 (69%) subjects had at least one non-elective re-admission, with a median time to first re-admission of 67 days. By one week after discharge 14% of subjects had been re-admitted, and 37% were re-admitted within one month. The mean costs for re-admissions within one week and between weeks 1–4 were $28,898 and %20,581, respectively. During a median follow-up of 203 days, the median number of re-admissions was 2 (range 0–40), with an overall rate of 3 hospitalizations/person-years. Patients with more frequent re-admissions had higher risk of subsequent mortality, despite adjustment for confounders including the Model for End-stage Liver Disease score. Predictors of time to first re-admission included MELD score, serum sodium, and number of medications on discharge; predictors of hospitalization rate included these variables as well as the number of cirrhosis complications and being on the transplant list at discharge. Among 165 re-admissions within 30 days, 22% were possibly preventable.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital re-admissions among patients with decompensated cirrhosis are common, costly, moderately predictable, in some cases possibly preventable, and independently associated with mortality. These findings support the development of disease management interventions to prevent re-hospitalization.

Factors influencing survival in a group of 318 cases of acute myocardial infarction were analyzed.

The mortality rate for the entire series was 41 per cent. Among the men it was 39.5 per cent; among women, 44.4 per cent. The mortality rate increased with the age of the patient. Twenty-six per cent of all deaths occurred within the first 24 hours, 44 per cent within 72 hours, and 71 per cent within the first week following hospital admission.

Increased mortality rate was associated with previous history of congestive failure, myocardial infarction, hypertension or cardiomegaly. As to circumstances immediately preceding an infarction, the only ones that seemed to be related to a high mortality rate were hemorrhage and the postoperative state. Not only the presence but the degree of shock, congestive failure, cyanosis and dyspnea adversely influenced chances for survival. Duration, location, radiation and number of attacks of pain did not appear to be associated with extraordinary mortality rates. Anterior was slightly more common than posterior infarctions, and the mortality rate was much higher. Thromboembolic complications and certain disorders of rhythm and of conduction definitely worsen prognosis.

Comparison of average mortality data as reported in different studies on acute myocardial infarction is improper and misleading because of the great differences between the kinds of patients included in various series reported upon. A standard method of grading the severity of acute myocardial infarction would help toward sounder comparisons.

Objectives To develop a transparent and reproducible measure for hospitals that can indicate when deaths in hospital or within 30 days of discharge are high relative to other hospitals, given the characteristics of the patients in that hospital, and to investigate those factors that have the greatest effect in changing the rank of a hospital, whether interactions exist between those factors, and the stability of the measure over time.

Design Retrospective cross sectional study of admissions to English hospitals.

Setting Hospital episode statistics for England from 1 April 2005 to 30 September 2010, with linked mortality data from the Office for National Statistics.

Participants 36.5 million completed hospital admissions in 146 general and 72 specialist trusts.

Main outcome measures Deaths within hospital or within 30 days of discharge from hospital.

Results The predictors that were used in the final model comprised admission diagnosis, age, sex, type of admission, and comorbidity. The percentage of people admitted who died in hospital or within 30 days of discharge was 4.2% for males and 4.5% for females. Emergency admissions comprised 75% of all admissions and 5.5% died, in contrast to 0.8% who died after an elective admission. The percentage who died with a Charlson comorbidity score of 0 was 2% in contrast with 15% who died with a score greater than 5. Given these variables, the relative standardised mortality rates of the hospitals were not noticeably changed by adjusting for the area level deprivation and number of previous emergency visits to hospital. There was little evidence that including interaction terms changed the relative values by any great amount. Using these predictors the summary hospital mortality index (SHMI) was derived. For 2007/8 the model had a C statistic of 0.911 and accounted for 81% of the variability of between hospital mortality. A random effects funnel plot was used to identify outlying hospitals. The outliers from the SHMI over the period 2005-10 have previously been identified using other mortality indicators.

Conclusion The SHMI is a relatively simple tool that can be used in conjunction with other information to identify hospitals that may need further investigation.

Purpose

Most chemotherapy (CT) administration occurs in routine care settings, yet little is known about treatment-related toxicity outside of clinical trials. To examine trends in toxicity, modify practice, and establish benchmarks for severe toxicity in a community cancer center we created a prospective registry of all treatment-related hospitalizations at the North Shore Medical Center Cancer Center, a community-based cancer facility in Peabody, MA.

Methods

Eligible population consisted of all adult cancer patients admitted to the hospital within 30 days of their last CT administration. Each admission was reviewed by a panel of hospital staff to determine whether admission was treatment-related. Information on admission was collected using a standard form.

Results

Between October 2001 and December 2003, there were 365 hospitalizations among patients receiving CT, 117 (32%) of which were deemed treatment-related. The median age of the cohort with treatment-related toxicity was 67 years, and 41% were male. Most frequent diagnoses were non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (23%) and colorectal cancer (21%), with 49% of the patients receiving treatment with palliative intent. The most common reasons for admission were gastrointestinal toxicity or infection. The mean length of stay was 7.1 days. Seven patients (6%) died during hospitalization. When the registry was reviewed to identify areas where care may be improved, several admissions for decadron-related hyperglycemia in nondiabetic patients with myeloma were noted. This led to introduction of glucose monitoring guidelines with no subsequent admissions for this toxicity since then.

Conclusions

About one third of hospital admissions in patients receiving CT are treatment-related and most occur in patients with advanced disease. Collection of data on toxicity in the routine care setting is feasible and may facilitate quality improvement.

Objectives To investigate trends in the incidence of acute pancreatitis resulting in admission to hospital, and mortality after admission, from 1963 to 1998.

Design Analysis of hospital inpatient statistics for acute pancreatitis, linked to data from death certificates.

Setting Southern England.

Subjects 5312 people admitted to hospital with acute pancreatitis.

Main outcome measures Incidence rates for admission to hospital, case fatality rates at 0-29 and 30-364 days after admission, and standardised mortality ratios at monthly intervals up to one year after admission.

Results The incidence of acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital increased from 1963-98: age standardised incidence rates were 4.9 per 100 000 population in 1963-74, 7.7 in 1975-86, and 9.8 in 1987-98. Age standardised case fatality rates within 30 days of admission were 14.2% in 1963-74, 7.6% in 1975-86, and 6.7% in 1987-98. From 1975-98, standardised mortality ratios at 30 days were 30 in men and 31 in women (compared with the general population of equivalent age in the same period = 1), and they remained significantly increased until month 5 for men and month 6 for women.

Conclusions Incidence rates for acute pancreatitis with admission to hospital rose in both men and women from 1963 to 1998, particularly among younger age groups. This probably reflects, at least in part, an increase in alcoholic pancreatitis. Mortality after admission has not declined since the 1970s. This presumably reflects the fact that no major innovations in the treatment of acute pancreatitis have been introduced. Pancreatitis remains a disease with a poor prognosis during the acute phase.

OBJECTIVE--To quantify the short term risk of postoperative mortality in ways which take account of deaths after discharge and the background risks of death in patients who come to operation. DESIGN--Analysis of linked abstracts of hospital admission records and death certificates for common operations. SETTING--Six health districts in the Oxford region. SUBJECTS--Records of 223,529 operations performed in 1980-6. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--In hospital fatality rates, case fatality rates, and standardised mortality ratios at selected time periods during the year after operation and the ratio of early (< 30 days) to late (90-364 days after operation) fatality rates. RESULTS--Fatality rates throughout the year after operations performed after emergency admissions were generally higher than those for similar operations performed after elective admissions and higher than expected from population rates. Examples were prostatectomy, hip arthroplasty, inguinal herniorrhaphy, and cholecystectomy. Common elective operations such as inguinal herniorrhaphy and cataract operations showed no early peak in mortality, but others did. These included transurethral prostatectomy (ratio of early to late mortality 2.0; 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.6), hysterectomy (3.2; 1.5 to 6.6), hip arthroplasty (3.8; 2.5 to 5.4), and cholecystectomy (6.9; 4.3 to 11.1). CONCLUSIONS--Temporal profiles of death rates in the year after operation show which operations have early peaks in mortality and which do not. Emergency and elective operations have very different profiles and should be analysed separately. For elective operations for conditions which pose no immediate threat to life the ratio of early to later fatality rates provides a measure of increase in mortality after operation while allowing for the background risk of death in the patient groups.

Background

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is a common disease requiring admission to hospital among elderly people and is associated with a high mortality rate. The objective of this study was to examine trends in CHF mortality and admissions to hospital in Montreal between 1990 and 1997 for individuals aged 65 years or more.

Methods

We obtained information about deaths from the Quebec Death Certificate Registry database and information about admissions to hospital from the Québec Med-Écho database. Patients with a primary diagnosis that was classified as ICD-9 code 428 were considered cases of CHF.

Results

Although age-adjusted rates of mortality from CHF did not change significantly between 1990 and 1997, the annual rate of admission to hospital for CHF increased from 92 per 10 000 population in 1990/91 to 124 per 10 000 population in 1997/98 (p < 0.01). Deaths due to CHF, expressed as a proportion of all cardiovascular deaths, increased among women from 5.6% in 1990 to 6.2% in 1997 (p = 0.01). The rate of readmission for all causes following a first admission for CHF during that year rose over the study period from 16.6% to 22.0% within one month (p < 0.001) and from 46.7% to 49.4% within 6 months (p = 0.03). Conversely, mean annual length of stay per admission decreased from 16.4 days in 1990/91 to 12.2 days in 1997/98.

Interpretation

The increase in rates of admission to hospital for CHF and the stable rates of CHF mortality suggest that the management of CHF and its antecedents has improved in recent years.

Background

For the further development of palliative care, it is relevant to gain insight into trends in non-acute mortality. The aim of this article is twofold: (a) to provide insight into ten-year trends in the characteristics of patients who died from cancer or other chronic diseases in the Netherlands; (b) to show how national death statistics, derived from physicians' death certificates, can be used in this type of investigations.

Methods

Secondary analysis of data from 1996 to 2006 on the "primary" or "underlying" cause of death from official death certificates filled out by physicians and additional data from 2003 to 2006 on the place of death from these certificates.

Results

Of the 135,000 people who died in the Netherlands in 2006, 77,000 (or 57%) died from a chronic disease. Cancer was the most frequent cause of death (40,000). Stroke accounted for 10,000 deaths, dementia for 8,000 deaths and COPD and heart failure each accounted for 6,000 deaths. Compared to 1996, the number of people who died from chronic diseases has risen by 6%.

Of all non-acute deaths, almost three quarters were at least 70 years old when they died. Almost one third of the people died at home (31%), 28% in a hospital, 25% in a nursing home and 16% somewhere else.

Conclusion

Further investments to facilitate dying at home are desirable. Death certificate data proved to be useful to describe and monitor trends in non-acute deaths. Advantages of the use of death certificate data concern the reliability of the data, the opportunities for selection on the basis of the ICD-10, and the availability and low cost price of the data.

Objectives

To examine hospital admissions for a range of diagnoses on days surrounding England's 1998 World Cup football matches.

Design

Analysis of hospital admissions obtained from English hospital episode statistics.

Setting

England.

Participants

Population aged 15-64 years.

Main outcome measures

Ratio of number of admissions for acute myocardial infarction, stroke, deliberate self harm, and road traffic injuries on the day of and five days after England's World Cup matches, compared with admissions at the same time in previous and following years and in the month preceding the tournament.

Results

Risk of admission for acute myocardial infarction increased by 25% on 30 June 1998 (the day England lost to Argentina in a penalty shoot-out) and the following two days. No excess admissions occurred for other diagnoses or on the days of the other England matches. The effect was the same when only the two days after the match were treated as the exposed condition. Individual analyses of the day of and the two days after the Argentina match showed 55 extra admissions for myocardial infarctions compared with the number expected.

Conclusion

The increase in admissions suggests that myocardial infarction can be triggered by emotional upset, such as watching your football team lose an important match.

What is already known on this topicPhysical and emotional triggers, such as environmental disasters and vigorous physical exercise, can precipitate acute myocardial infarctionAn increase in cardiovascular mortality among Dutch men was associated with the 1996 European championship match between the Netherlands and FranceWhat this study addsAdmissions for myocardial infarction increased on the day England was eliminated from the 1998 World Cup by Argentina in a penalty shoot-out and on the two subsequent daysNo effect was seen on admissions for other diagnoses or after other matchesThese data support the hypothesis that intense emotional reactions can trigger myocardial infarction