Throughout the last decade of the twentieth century, Lithuania had the highest suicide rates in Europe among both men and women aged 25–64 years. The rates increased from 1986 until 1995, but later there was a slight decrease. This paper describes the trends in suicide deaths in urban population in Lithuania by gender, dates and suicide method over the period 1984–2003.
Data from the regional mortality register were used to analyze suicide deaths among all men and women aged 25–64 years in Kaunas city, Lithuania over the period 1984–2003. Age-standardized death rates per 100,000 persons (using European standard population) were calculated by gender, suicide method and dates. A joinpoint regression method was used to estimate annual percentage changes (EPACs) and to detect points where the trends changed significantly.
The frequency of death by suicide among males was 48% higher in 1994–2003 than in 1984–1993. The corresponding increase among females was 28%. The most common methods of suicide among men were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (87.4% among all suicide deaths). The proportions of hanging, strangulation and suffocation in males increased by 6.9% – from 83.9% to 89.7% – compared to a 24.2% increase in deaths from handgun, rifle and shotgun firearm discharges and a 216.7% increase in deaths from poisoning with solvents, gases, pesticides and vapors. Among females, the most common methods of suicide were hanging, strangulation and suffocation (68.3% of all suicide deaths). The proportion of hanging deaths among females increased during the time period examined, whereas the proportion of poisonings with solid or liquid substances decreased.
Suicide rates increased significantly among urban men aged 25–64 years in Lithuania throughout the period 1984–2003, whereas among women an increasing but statistically insignificant trend was observed. There were changes in the suicide methods used by both men and women. Changes in the choice of method may have contributed to the changes in suicide rates.
Breast cancer incidence within an area is usually proportional to the area’s income level. High-income areas have shown the highest incidence rates and since 2003, negative trends. As for mortality, rates are often higher in low-income regions. The purpose of this study was to analyze trends in incidence and mortality in a capital city of a northeastern Brazilian state with an intermediate human development index.
Incidence data from the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Aracaju and mortality data from the Official State Database for the period 1996–2006 were used. Incidence and mortality crude and age-standardized rates were calculated. Time trends were obtained using the Joinpoint Regression Model.
For the period studied, invasive breast cancer age-standardized incidence rates increased annually with an annual percentage change (APC) of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.2-4.6). Significant increasing trends were observed in groups aged 45–54 years (APC: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.4 to 6.6), and 55–64 years (APC: 5.6, 95% CI: 1.8 to 9.6). Age-standardized mortality rates did not show an increasing trend (APC: 3.0, (95% CI: -2.8 to9.1), except for the group aged 55–64 years (APC: 11.3, 95% CI: 1.1 to 22.4).
In the study community, breast cancer showed increasing incidence among women in the peri- and postmenopausal periods. However, mortality did not present increasing overall trends, except for among the group aged 55–64 years. For better outcomes, screening policies should focus on the peri- and postmenopausal periods of women’s lives to diagnose disease.
Breast cancer; Incidence; Mortality; Cancer registry; Time trends
The aim of this study was to describe and to compare the cancer mortality rates in urban and rural residents in Lithuania.
Cancer mortality has been studied using the materials of the Lithuanian cancer registry. For the period 1993–2004 age-standardized urban and rural population mortality rates (World standard) were calculated for all malignant neoplasm's and for stomach, colorectal, lung, prostate, breast and cervical cancers. The annual percentage change (APC) was calculated using log-linear regression model, two-sided Mantel-Haenzel test was used to evaluate differences in cancer mortality among rural and urban populations.
For males in rural population cancer mortality was higher than in urban (212.2 and 197.0 cases per 100000) and for females cancer mortality was higher in urban population (103.5 and 94.2 cases per 100000, p < 0.05). During the study period the age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both sexes in urban residents. The decreasing mortality trend in urban population was contributed by decline of the rates of lung and stomach cancer in male and breast, stomach and colorectal cancer in female. Mortality rates in both urban and rural population were increasing for prostate and cervical cancers.
This study shows that large rural and urban inequalities in cancer mortality exist in Lithuania. The contrast between the health of residents in urban and rural areas invites researchers for research projects to develop, implement, and enhance cancer prevention and early detection intervention strategies for rural populations.
The aim of the present paper was to analyse cancer mortality in the Umbria region, from 1978 to 2004. Mortality trends depend on a number of factors including exposures, health system interventions, and possibly artefact (e.g. classification change, variations of data completeness). Descriptive data on mortality only allow for generation of hypotheses to explain observed trends. Some clues on the respective role of possible mortality determinants may be found comparing mortality with incidence and survival data.
Mortality data for the periods 1978–1993 and 1994–2004 were supplied by the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) and the Regional Causes of Death Registry (ReNCaM) respectively. Sex and site-specific mortality time trends were analysed by the "joinpoint regression" method.
For all sites combined, in both sexes, the standardised rate was first increasing before the end of the eighties and decreasing thereafter. Gastric cancer mortality showed a different trend by gender; that is the rate constantly decreased over the period among females while, for males, it was first increasing up to 1985 and decreasing thereafter. Liver cancer trend showed a pattern similar to gastric cancer. Large bowel cancer showed a gender specific trend, that is it was increasing among males and stable among females. Also lung cancer mortality varied by gender: it started to decline after 1989 among males but was steadily increasing over the study period among women. A decreasing trend for female breast cancer mortality began in 1994. Prostate cancer mortality trend is the only one showing two significant joinpoints: mortality decreased up to 1990, then it increased up to 1998 and, finally, was decreasing.
Overall cancer mortality was decreasing in both sexes in Umbria and this favourable trend will probably continue and further improve since population screening against breast, cervix, and large bowel cancers were recently introduced. Besides gastric cancer, tobacco-related cancers and prostate cancer mainly contributed to mortality reduction in males, whereas breast cancer mainly contributed to declining mortality in females.
To analyze melanoma incidence and mortality trends in Croatia 1988-2008, compare them with the trends in other populations, and identify possible changes in the trends.
Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry and the mortality data from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. United Nations population estimates were used for calculating the age-specific rates. Age-standardized rates were calculated by the direct standardization method, using the world standard population as a reference. To estimate incidence and mortality trends, we performed joinpoint regression analysis.
A significantly increasing incidence trend, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of 5.9% for men and 5.6% for women, was observed over the whole 21-year period and no additional joinpoints were identified. The overall incidence increase between the first and the last five-year period was 149% for men and 130% for women. Significant increase in the mortality trend was observed, with EAPC of 3.0% for men and 2.4% for women. No joinpoints were identified. The overall increase in mortality between the first and the last five-year period was 45% for men and 50% for women.
Melanoma rates in Croatia are steadily and markedly rising, with similar trends to those in the countries with lower/intermediate incidence. It is important to further investigate the more specific causes of the increasing trends, as well as to implement effective public policies targeting the melanoma burden.
To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes.
The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends.
Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%).
While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future.
The crude frequency of colorectal cancer (CRC) is second to breast cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). To assess the future burden of CRC in the country, we designed a model that takes into consideration the recent lifestyle pattern and the growth and aging of the population.
We compared CRC statistics for KSA (using data from the National Cancer Registry) with that from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) databases of the United States of America (USA). We used the Joinpoint regression program to identify changes in secular trends, while the GLOBOCAN 2002 software was used to project future incidence and mortality.
Between 1994 and 2003, age-standardized rates (ASRs) for CRC in KSA almost doubled, as compared to a nonsignificant decline in USA. Between 2001 and 2003, while the annual percent change (APC) of CRC incidence in the USA showed a nonsignificant decrease in females, APC in Saudi females showed a nonsignificant rise of six percent. On the other hand, the rising incidence among Saudi males, during the years 1999 to 2003, was significant, with an APC of 20.5%. The projection model suggested that the incidence of CRC in KSA could increase fourfold in both genders by the year 2030.
In KSA, the present and expected increase in CRC rates is alarming. Pragmatic recommendations to face that challenge are discussed. The present work could serve as a model to study other prevalent types of cancer, particularly in developing countries.
Colorectal cancer; developing country; incidence; Saudi Arabia
The textile industry is one of the largest employers in Lithuania. IARC monograph concludes that working in the textile manufacturing industry entails exposures that are possibly carcinogenic to humans. The purpose of this study was to investigate risk of lung cancer incidence in textile industry workers by the type of job and evaluate the relation between occupational textile dusts exposure and lung cancer risk in a cohort.
Altogether 14650 textile workers were included in this retrospective study and were followed from 1978 to 2002. Lung cancer risk was analyzed using the standardized incidence ratios (SIR) calculated by the person-years method. The expected number of cases was calculated by indirect methods using Lithuanian incidence rates.
During the period of 25 years 70 cancer cases for male and 15 for female were identified. The SIR for male was 0.94 (95% CI PI 0.73–1.19), for female 1.36 (95% CI 0.76–2.25). The lung cancer risk for male in the cotton textile production unit was significantly lower after 10 years of employment (SIR = 0.34; 95% CI 0.12–0.73). The lung cancer risk decreased with level of exposure to textile dust (p for trends was <0.05): the SIR for the low, medium, high and very high level of cumulative exposure were 1.91 (95% CI 0.92–3.51), 1.30 (95% CI 0.52–2.69), 0.77 (95% CI 0.21–1.96), and 0.24 (95% CI 0.03–0.86) respectively.
In our study the exposure to cotton textile dust at workplaces for male is associated with adverse lung cancer risk effects. High level of exposure to cotton dusts appears to be associated with a reduced risk of lung cancer in cotton textile workers.
To analyze and interpret incidence and mortality trends of breast and ovarian cancers and incidence trends of cervical and endometrial cancers in Croatia for the period 1988-2008.
Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. Trends of incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis.
Joinpoint analysis showed an increase in the incidence of breast cancer with estimated annual percent of change (EAPC) of 2.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.9 to 3.4). The mortality rate was stable, with the EAPC of 0.3% (95% CI, -0.6 to 0.0). Endometrial cancer showed an increasing incidence trend, with EAPC of 0.8% (95% CI, 0.2 to 1.4), while cervical cancer showed a decreasing incidence trend, with EAPC of -1.0 (95% CI, -1.6 to -0.4). Ovarian cancer incidence showed three trends, but the average annual percent change (AAPC) for the overall period was not significant, with a stable trend of 0.1%. Ovarian cancer mortality was increasing since 1992, with EAPC of 1.2% (95% CI, 0.4 to 1.9), while the trend for overall period was stable with AAPC 0.1%.
Incidence trends of breast, endometrial, and ovarian cancers in Croatia 1988-2008 are similar to the trends observed in most of the European countries, while the modest decline in cervical cancer incidence and lack of decline in breast cancer mortality suggest suboptimal cancer prevention and control.
To describe and interpret lung cancer incidence and mortality trends in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.
Incidence data on lung cancer for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry, while mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Population estimates for Croatia were obtained from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. We also calculated and analyzed age-standardized incidence and mortality rates. To describe time incidence and mortality trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis.
Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in men decreased significantly in all age groups younger than 70 years. Age-standardized incidence rates in men decreased significantly by -1.3% annually. Joinpoint analysis of mortality in men identified three trends, and average annual percent change (AAPC) decreased significantly by -1.1%. Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in women increased significantly in all age groups older than 40 years and decreased in younger women (30-39- years). Age-standardized incidence rates increased significantly by 1.7% annually. Joinpoint analysis of age-standardized mortality rates in women identified two trends, and AAPC increased significantly by 1.9%.
Despite the overall decreasing trend, Croatia is still among the European countries with the highest male lung cancer incidence and mortality. Although the incidence trend in women is increasing, their age standardized incidence rates are still 5-fold lower than in men. These trends follow the observed decrease and increase in the prevalence of male and female smokers, respectively. These findings indicate the need for further introduction of smoking prevention and cessation policies targeting younger population, particularly women.
The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year’s report includes trends in lung cancer incidence and death rates, tobacco use, and tobacco control by state of residence.
Information on invasive cancers was obtained from the NCI, CDC, and NAACCR and information on mortality from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics. Annual percentage changes in the age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 US population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1975–2005) trends and by least squares linear regression of short-term (1996–2005) trends. All statistical tests were two-sided.
Both incidence and death rates from all cancers combined decreased statistically significantly (P < .05) in men and women overall and in most racial and ethnic populations. These decreases were driven largely by declines in both incidence and death rates for the three most common cancers in men (lung, colorectum, and prostate) and for two of the three leading cancers in women (breast and colorectum), combined with a leveling off of lung cancer death rates in women. Although the national trend in female lung cancer death rates has stabilized since 2003, after increasing for several decades, there is prominent state and regional variation. Lung cancer incidence and/or death rates among women increased in 18 states, 16 of them in the South or Midwest, where, on average, the prevalence of smoking was higher and the annual percentage decrease in current smoking among adult women was lower than in the West and Northeast. California was the only state with decreasing lung cancer incidence and death rates in women.
Although the decrease in overall cancer incidence and death rates is encouraging, large state and regional differences in lung cancer trends among women underscore the need to maintain and strengthen many state tobacco control programs.
Standard descriptive methods for the analysis of cancer surveillance data include canonical plots based on the lexis diagram, directly age-standardized rates (ASR), estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and joinpoint regression. The age-period-cohort (APC) model has been used less often. Here, we argue that it merits much broader use. Firstly, we describe close connections between estimable functions of the model parameters and standard quantities such as the ASR, EAPC, and joinpoints. Estimable functions have the added value of being fully adjusted for period and cohort effects, and generally more precise. Secondly, the APC model provides the descriptive epidemiologist with powerful new tools, including rigorous statistical methods for comparative analyses and the ability to project the future burden of cancer. We illustrate these principles using invasive female breast cancer incidence in the United States, but these concepts apply equally well to other cancer sites for incidence or mortality.
Cancer Surveillance Research; age standardized rates (ASR); estimated annual percentage change (EAPC); joinpoint regression; Age-period-cohort (APC) model; APC estimable parameters; APC linear trends; APC deviations; APC drifts; APC fitted age at onset curve
To estimate the incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.
Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of deaths from gastric and colorectal cancers was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe changes in trends by sex.
Gastric cancer incidence rates declined steadily during the study period, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of -3.2% for men and -2.8% for women. Mortality rates in men decreased, with EAPC of -5.0% from 1988-1995 and -2.5% from 1995-2008. Mortality rates in women decreased, with EAPC of -3.2% throughout the study period. For colorectal cancer in men, joinpoint analysis revealed increasing trends of both incidence (EAPC 2.9%) and mortality (EAPC 2.1%).In women, the increase in incidence was not significant, but mortality in the last 15 years showed a significant increase of 1.1%.
The incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer in Croatia are similar to other European countries, while the still increasing colorectal cancer mortality calls for more efficient prevention and treatment.
Although prostate cancer-related incidence and mortality have declined recently, striking racial/ethnic differences persist in the United States. Visualizing and modelling temporal trends of prostate cancer late-stage incidence, and how they vary according to geographic locations and race, should help explaining such disparities. Joinpoint regression is increasingly used to identify the timing and extent of changes in time series of health outcomes. Yet, most analyses of temporal trends are aspatial and conducted at the national level or for a single cancer registry.
Time series (1981-2007) of annual proportions of prostate cancer late-stage cases were analyzed for non-Hispanic Whites and non-Hispanic Blacks in each county of Florida. Noise in the data was first filtered by binomial kriging and results were modelled using joinpoint regression. A similar analysis was also conducted at the state level and for groups of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties. Significant racial differences were detected using tests of parallelism and coincidence of time trends. A new disparity statistic was introduced to measure spatial and temporal changes in the frequency of racial disparities.
State-level percentage of late-stage diagnosis decreased 50% since 1981; a decline that accelerated in the 90's when Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) screening was introduced. Analysis at the metropolitan and non-metropolitan levels revealed that the frequency of late-stage diagnosis increased recently in urban areas, and this trend was significant for white males. The annual rate of decrease in late-stage diagnosis and the onset years for significant declines varied greatly among counties and racial groups. Most counties with non-significant average annual percent change (AAPC) were located in the Florida Panhandle for white males, whereas they clustered in South-eastern Florida for black males. The new disparity statistic indicated that the spatial extent of racial disparities reached a peak in 1990 because of an early decline in frequency of late-stage diagnosis observed for black males.
Analyzing temporal trends in cancer incidence and mortality rates outside a spatial framework is unsatisfactory, since it leads one to overlook significant geographical variation which can potentially generate new insights about the impact of various interventions. Differences observed among nested geographies in Florida show how the modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) also impacts the analysis of temporal changes.
A recent abstract presented in a breast cancer symposium attributed the sharp decrease in female breast cancer incidence rates from 2002 to 2003 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) cancer registries of the United States to the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy since July 2002. However, this hypothesis does not explain the decrease that began in 1999 in the age-standardized incidence rate of invasive breast cancer in the nine oldest SEER cancer registry areas, although the trend through 2003 was not statistically significant. In this paper, we examine temporal trends in invasive and in situ female breast cancer by age, stage, tumor size, and estrogen receptor/progestin receptor (ER/PR) status in the nine oldest SEER cancer registry areas and consider the implication of these trends in relation to risk factors and screening.
We performed a joinpoint regression analysis to fit a series of joined straight lines to the trends in age-adjusted rates and described the resultant trends (slope) by annual percentage change (two-sided, P < 0.05).
A plot of the age-specific rates of invasive breast cancer shows a decrease in all 5-year age groups from 45 years and above between 1999 and 2003 and sharp decreases largely confined to ER+ tumors in age groups from 50 to 69 years between 2002 and 2003. In joinpoint analyses by tumor size and stage, incidence rates decreased for small tumors (less than or equal to 2 cm) by 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.2% to 7.8%) per year from 2000 through 2003 and for localized disease by 3.1% (95% CI, 1.2% to 5.0%) per year from 1999 through 2003. No decrease in incidence was observed for larger tumors or advanced-stage disease during the corresponding periods. Rates for in situ disease were stable from 2000 through 2003 after increasing rapidly since 1981.
Two distinct patterns are observed in breast cancer trends. The downturn in incidence rates in all age groups above 45 years suggests a period effect that is consistent with saturation in screening mammography. The sharp decrease in incidence from 2002 to 2003 that occurred in women 50 to 69 years old who predominantly, but not exclusively, had ER+ tumors may reflect the early benefit of the reduced use of hormone replacement therapy.
To describe and interpret prostate cancer incidence and mortality trends in Croatia between 1988 and 2008.
Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of prostate cancer deaths was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. We also used population estimates for Croatia from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated by the direct standardization method. To describe time trends of incidence and mortality, joinpoint regression analysis was used.
Average age-standardized incidence rate between the first and last five-year period doubled, from 19.0/100 000 in 1988-1992 to 39.1 per 100 000 in 2004-2008. Age-standardized mortality rate increased by 6.9%, from 14.5 to 15.5 per 100 000. Joinpoint analysis of incidence identified two joinpoints. The increasing incidence trend started from 1997, with the estimated annual percent of change (EAPC) of 12.9% from 1997-2002 and of 4.1% from 2002-2008. Joinpoint analyses of mortality identified one joinpoint. Mortality trend first decreased, with EAPC of -3.0% from 1988-1995 to increase later with EAPC of 2.0% from 1995-2008.
The incidence of prostate cancer in Croatia has been on the increase since 1997. Trend in mortality is increasing, contrary to the trends in some higher-income countries. An improvement in the availability of different treatment modalities as well as establishing prostate cancer units could have a positive impact on prostate cancer mortality in Croatia.
A number of reports have indicated an increasing incidence of primary brain tumors over the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to describe incidence rate trends in a population-based series of newly diagnosed primary nonmalignant and malignant brain and other CNS tumors, contributing five additional years to previously published incidence trends. Data for the years 1985 through 1999 from six collaborating state cancer registries of the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States were used to determine incidence trends in the broad age groups 0–19, 20–64, and ⩾65 years, overall and for selected histologies. Multiplicative Poisson regression was used to express trends as average annual percent change (AAPC). Joinpoint regression was used to identify sharp changes in incidence occurring over this period. Overall, incidence increased modestly (AAPC, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8–1.4). When brain lymphomas were excluded, this increase remained statistically significant. A sharp change in incidence of brain lymphomas from increasing to decreasing over time was identified. Specific histologies that were increasing included anaplastic astrocytomas in individuals aged ⩾65 years, microscopically confirmed gliomas in both adult age groups, and microscopically confirmed glioma, not otherwise specified (NOS), in children. Increases that were not specific to any population subgroup were seen for oligodendrogliomas, ependymomas, meningiomas, and nerve sheath tumors. Decreases were noted for astrocytoma, NOS, nonmicroscopically confirmed gliomas, and pituitary tumors. Improvements in diagnosis and classification are likely reflected in the decreasing trends in unspecified glioma subgroups and the accompanying increasing trends in more specific glioma subgroups. However, increases in meningiomas and nerve sheath tumors deserve further attention.
brain tumors; epidemiology; incidence; trends
Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes.
Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9th and 10th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area.
Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s.
Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor.
No previous U.S. study has examined time trends in the incidence rate of liver cancer in the high-risk Asian/Pacific Islander population. We evaluated liver cancer incidence trends in Chinese, Filipino, Japanese, Korean, and Vietnamese males and females in the Greater San Francisco Bay Area of California between 1990 and 2004.
Populations at risk were estimated using the cohort component demographic method. Annual percentage changes (APCs) in age-adjusted incidence rates of primary liver cancer among Asians/Pacific Islanders in the Greater Bay Area Cancer Registry were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis.
The incidence rate of liver cancer between 1990 and 2004 did not change significantly in Asian/Pacific Islander males or females overall. However, the incidence rate declined, albeit statistically non-significantly, in Chinese males (APC =−1.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) =−3.4%, 0.3%], Japanese males (APC = −4.9%, 95% CI =−10.7%, 1.2%), and Japanese females (APC =−3.6%, 95% CI =−8.9%, 2.0%). Incidence rates remained consistently high for Vietnamese, Korean, and Filipino males and females. Trends in the incidence rate of hepatocellular carcinoma were comparable to those for liver cancer. While disparities in liver cancer incidence between Asians/Pacific Islanders and other racial/ethnic groups diminished between 1990–1994 and 2000–2004, those among Asian subgroups increased.
Liver cancer continues to affect Asian/Pacific Islander Americans disproportionately, with consistently high incidence rates in most subgroups. Culturally targeted prevention methods are needed to reduce the high rates of liver cancer in this growing population in the U.S.
Asian Americans; epidemiology; hepatocellular carcinoma; liver cancer; surveillance
To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality were projected for the year 2011.
Materials and Methods
The cancer incidence data from 1999-2008 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993-2009 were obtained from the Korea National Statistics Office. Cancer incident cases and rates in 2011 were projected from fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied for projection except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed.
A total of 216,809 new cancer cases and 71,036 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2011. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 437.9 and 420.5 and the age-standardized incidence rates are projected to be 336.5 and 279.7 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively.
Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as Korea becomes an aged society, the cancer burden will continue to increase.
Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Prediction; Korea; 2011
To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality rates were projected for the year 2012.
Materials and Methods
The cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2009 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and the cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2010 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2012 was projected by fitting a linear regression model on observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was applied, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend significantly changed.
A total of 234,727 new cancer cases and 73,313 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2012. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 465.6 and 459.7, and the age-standardized incidences to be 345.1 and 300.9 per 100,000 respectively for males and females.
Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as the Korean population ages, the cancer burden will continue to increase.
Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Prediction; Korea; 2012
To estimate the current cancer burden in Korea, cancer incidence and mortality rates were projected for the year 2013.
Materials and Methods
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2010 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2011 were obtained from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2013 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against observed years, then multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population. For cancer mortality, a similar procedure was used, except that a Joinpoint regression model was used to determine at which year the linear trend changed significantly.
In total, 247,732 new cancer cases and 74,179 cancer deaths are projected to occur in Korea in 2013. For all sites combined, the crude incidence rates are projected to be 489.8 and 492.2, and the age-standardized incidences to be 350.4 and 318.4 per 100,000 for males and females, respectively.
Cancer has become an important public health concern in Korea, and as the Korean population ages, the cancer burden will continue to increase.
Incidence; Mortality; Neoplasms; Forecasting; Korea; 2013
The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to provide updated information on cancer occurrence and trends in the United States. This year’s report highlights brain and other nervous system (ONS) tumors, including nonmalignant brain tumors, which became reportable on a national level in 2004.
Cancer incidence data were obtained from the National Cancer Institute, CDC, and NAACCR, and information on deaths was obtained from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics. The annual percentage changes in age-standardized incidence and death rates (2000 US population standard) for all cancers combined and for the top 15 cancers for men and for women were estimated by joinpoint analysis of long-term (1992–2007 for incidence; 1975–2007 for mortality) trends and short-term fixed interval (1998–2007) trends. Analyses of malignant neuroepithelial brain and ONS tumors were based on data from 1980–2007; data on nonmalignant tumors were available for 2004–2007. All statistical tests were two-sided.
Overall cancer incidence rates decreased by approximately 1% per year; the decrease was statistically significant (P < .05) in women, but not in men, because of a recent increase in prostate cancer incidence. The death rates continued to decrease for both sexes. Childhood cancer incidence rates continued to increase, whereas death rates continued to decrease. Lung cancer death rates decreased in women for the first time during 2003–2007, more than a decade after decreasing in men. During 2004–2007, more than 213 500 primary brain and ONS tumors were diagnosed, and 35.8% were malignant. From 1987–2007, the incidence of neuroepithelial malignant brain and ONS tumors decreased by 0.4% per year in men and women combined.
The decrease in cancer incidence and mortality reflects progress in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment. However, major challenges remain, including increasing incidence rates and continued low survival for some cancers. Malignant and nonmalignant brain tumors demonstrate differing patterns of occurrence by sex, age, and race, and exhibit considerable biologic diversity. Inclusion of nonmalignant brain tumors in cancer registries provides a fuller assessment of disease burden and medical resource needs associated with these unique tumors.
The increasing incidence of esophageal and proximal gastric (cardia) adenocarcinoma and the decreasing incidence of distal gastric (antropyloric) adenocarcinoma has been documented in several populations. The aim of the present study was to examine incidence trends of these neoplasms in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, over a 39-year period.
Analyses were based on data obtained from the Ontario Cancer Registry of Cancer Care Ontario. Number of cases and rates per 100,000, age-adjusted to the 1996 Canadian standard, were obtained for all esophageal and gastric carcinoma cases reported between 1964 and 2002. Rates were grouped into five-year periods to analyze trends over the 39-year period. Point and 95% CI estimates of average annual percentage change in incidence rates were calculated with a log-linear regression model.
The incidence of adenocarcinoma of the distal esophagus increased in men and women (average annual increase of 9.5% in men; 4.3% in women). The incidence of adenocarcinoma of the cardia increased in men and women (average annual increase of 7.3% in men; 5.8% in women). The incidence of antropyloric adenocarcinoma increased in men and women (average annual increase of 4.4% in men; 5.3% in women). The incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained stable.
There has been a significant increase in the incidence of adenocarcinoma around the gastroesophageal junction in men over the 39-year study period. The increase in incidence of distal gastric adenocarcinoma is unexpected and may relate to a reclassification phenomenon, immigration trends in Ontario and a rising incidence of diffuse/signet ring cell adenocarcinoma.
Adenocarcinoma; Epidemiology; Esophageal neoplasms; Gastric neoplasms
Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy worldwide with a high burden in West Africa. Male to female ratios show consistent bias toward males, the biological bases and variations of which are not well understood. We have used data from the Gambian National Cancer Registry to compare trends in incidence of HCC in both genders.
Methods and Findings
Two periods were compared, 1988–1997 (early) and 1998–2006 (recent). In addition, the regression program joinpoint was used to assess trends over 19 years. Differences with self-reported ethnicity were assessed for the recent period using population data from 2003 census. Male to female ratio showed a significant decrease between the two periods from 3.28∶1 (95% CI, [2.93–3.65]) to 2.2∶1 (95% CI, [1.99–2.43]). Although rates in males were relatively stable (38.36 and 32.84 for, respectively, early and recent periods), they increased from 11.71 to 14.9 in females with a significant Annual Percentage Change of 3.01 [0.3–5.8] over 19 years and an increase in number of cases of 80.28% (compared to 26% in males). Significant variations in HCC risk, but not in gender ratio were observed in relation with ethnicity.
This analysis of the only national, population-based cancer registry in West Africa shows a significant increase in HCC in females over recent years. This increase may be the consequence of major changes in lifestyle or viral risk factors, in particular obesity and hepatitis C, which have both been documented to increase in West Africa during recent years.