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1.  Syndrome of rapid onset end stage renal disease in incident Mayo Clinic chronic hemodialysis patient 
Indian Journal of Nephrology  2014;24(2):75-81.
Despite decades of research, a full understanding of chronic kidney disease (CKD)-end stage renal disease (ESRD) progression remains elusive. The common consensus is a predictable, linear, progressive and time-dependent decline of CKD to ESRD. Acute kidney injury (AKI) on CKD is usually assumed to be transient, with recovery as the expected outcome. AKI-ESRD association in current nephrology literature is blamed on the so-called “residual confounding.” We had previously described a relationship between AKI events and rapid onset yet irreversible ESRD happening in a continuum in a high-risk CKD cohort. However, the contribution of the syndrome of rapid onset-ESRD (SORO-ESRD) to incident United States ESRD population remained conjectural. In this retrospective analysis, we analyzed serum creatinine trajectories of the last 100 consecutive ESRD patients in 4 Mayo Clinic chronic hemodialysis units to determine the incidence of SORO-ESRD. Excluding 9 patients, 31 (34%) patients, including two renal transplant recipients, had SORO-ESRD: 18 males and 13 females age 72 (range 50-92) years. Precipitating AKI followed pneumonia (8), acutely decompensated heart failure (7), pyelonephritis (4), post-operative (5), sepsis (3), contrast-induced nephropathy (2), and others (2). Time to dialysis was shortest following surgical procedures. Concurrent renin angiotensin aldosterone system blockade was higher with SORO-ESRD - 23% versus 5%, P = 0.0113. In conclusion, SORO-ESRD is not uncommon among the incident general US ESRD population. The implications for ESRD care planning, AV-fistula-first programs, general CKD care and any associations with renal ageing/senescence warrant further study.
PMCID: PMC3968613  PMID: 24701038
Acute kidney injury; chronic kidney disease; end stage renal disease; renal replacement therapy
2.  Comparison of quality-of-care measures in U.S. patients with end-stage renal disease secondary to lupus nephritis vs. other causes 
BMC Nephrology  2015;16:39.
Patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) due to lupus nephritis (LN-ESRD) may be followed by multiple providers (nephrologists and rheumatologists) and have greater opportunities to receive recommended ESRD-related care. We aimed to examine whether LN-ESRD patients have better quality of ESRD care compared to other ESRD patients.
Among incident patients (7/05–9/11) with ESRD due to LN (n = 6,594) vs. other causes (n = 617,758), identified using a national surveillance cohort (United States Renal Data System), we determined the association between attributed cause of ESRD and quality-of-care measures (pre-ESRD nephrology care, placement on the deceased donor kidney transplant waitlist, and placement of permanent vascular access). Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs).
LN-ESRD patients were more likely than other ESRD patients to receive pre-ESRD care (71% vs. 66%; OR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.57-1.78) and be placed on the transplant waitlist in the first year (206 vs. 86 per 1000 patient-years; HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.34–1.52). However, only 24% had a permanent vascular access (fistula or graft) in place at dialysis start (vs. 36%; OR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.59–0.67).
LN-ESRD patients are more likely to receive pre-ESRD care and have better access to transplant, but are less likely to have a permanent vascular access for dialysis, than other ESRD patients. Further studies are warranted to examine barriers to permanent vascular access placement, as well as morbidity and mortality associated with temporary access, in patients with LN-ESRD.
PMCID: PMC4389993  PMID: 25884409
3.  Blood Pressure Indexes and End-Stage Renal Disease Risk in Adults With Chronic Kidney Disease 
American journal of hypertension  2012;25(7):789-796.
Few studies have compared different blood pressure (BP) indexes for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) risk among individuals with chronic kidney disease.
We examined the relationship between systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), pulse pressure (PP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) and ESRD risk among 2,772 participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration equation in the REasons for the Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study. BP was measured during a baseline study visit between January 2003 and October 2007 with ESRD incidence through August 2009 ascertained via linkage with the United States Renal Data System (n = 138 ESRD cases).
The mean age was 72.1(standard deviation: 8.7) years. After multivariable adjustment for socio-demographic and clinical risk factors including antihypertensive medication use, the hazard ratio (HR) for ESRD associated with one standard deviation higher SBP (18 mm Hg) was 1.67, (95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.43–1.96), DBP (11 mm Hg) was 1.38, (95% CI 1.16–1.63), PP (15 mm Hg) was 1.50, (95% CI 1.27–1.78) and MAP (11 mm Hg) was 1.54, (95% CI 1.32–1.79). Higher levels of SBP remained associated with an increased HR for ESRD after additional adjustment for DBP (1.65, 95% CI: 1.35–2.01), PP (1.73, 95% CI: 1.32–2.26), and MAP (1.61, 95% CI: 1.16–2.23). After adjustment for SBP, the other BP indexes were not significantly associated with incident ESRD.
These data suggest that of several blood pressure indexes including DBP, PP and MAP, SBP may have the strongest association with ESRD incidence among individuals with reduced eGFR.
PMCID: PMC3784349  PMID: 22573012
blood pressure; chronic kidney disease; end-stage renal disease; hypertension; pulse pressure; systolic blood pressure
4.  Extreme Levels of HbA1c Increase Incident ESRD Risk in Chinese Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: Competing Risk Analysis in National Cohort of Taiwan Diabetes Study 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(6):e0130828.
Whether HbA1c is a predictor of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in type 2 diabetes patients remains unclear. This study evaluated relationship between HbA1c and ESRD in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.
Patients aged ≥ 30 years who were free of ESRD (n = 51 681) were included from National Diabetes Care Management Program from 2002–2003. Extended Cox proportional hazard model with competing risk of death served to evaluate association between HbA1c level and ESRD.
A total of 2613 (5.06%) people developed ESRD during a follow-up period of 8.1 years. Overall incidence rate of ESRD was 6.26 per 1000 person-years. Patients with high levels of HbA1c had a high incidence rate of ESRD, from 4.29 for HbA1c of  6.0%–6.9% to 10.33 for HbA1c ≥ 10.0% per 1000 person-years. Patients with HbA1c < 6.0% particularly had a slightly higher ESRD incidence (4.34 per 1000 person-years) than those with HbA1c  of 6.0%–6.9%. A J-shaped relationship between HbA1c level and ESRD risk was observed. After adjustment, patients with HbA1c < 6.0% and ≥ 10.0% exhibited an increased risk of ESRD (HR: 1.99, 95% CI: 1.62–2.44; HR: 4.42, 95% CI: 3.80–5.14, respectively) compared with those with HbA1c of 6.0%–6.9%.
Diabetes care has focused on preventing hyperglycemia, but not hypoglycemia. Our study revealed that HbA1c level ≥ 7.0% was linked with increased ESRD risk in type 2 diabetes patients, and that HbA1c < 6.0% also had the potential to increase ESRD risk. Our study provides epidemiological evidence that appropriate glycemic control is essential for diabetes care to meet HbA1c targets and improve outcomes without increasing the risk to this population. Clinicians need to pay attention to HbA1c results on diabetic nephropathy.
PMCID: PMC4476774  PMID: 26098901
5.  Trends in Anemia Care in Older Patients Approaching End-Stage Renal Disease in the U.S. (1995–2010) 
JAMA internal medicine  2014;174(5):699-707.
Anemia is common in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease. While the treatment of anemia in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has attracted considerable attention, relatively little is known about patterns and trends in the anemia care received by patients before initiating maintenance dialysis or pre-emptive kidney transplantation.
To determine the trends in anemia treatment received by Medicare beneficiaries approaching ESRD.
Closed cohort study.
United States using national ESRD registry data (U.S. Renal Data System).
466,803 patients aged ≥67 years initiated maintenance dialysis or underwent pre-emptive kidney transplantation between 1995 and 2010. All eligible patients had uninterrupted Medicare (A+B) coverage for >2 years before ESRD.
Time, defined as calendar year of incident ESRD.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Use of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESA), intravenous iron supplements, and blood transfusions in the two years prior to ESRD; hemoglobin concentration at the time of ESRD. We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to estimate adjusted utilization prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
The proportion of incident ESRD patients receiving any ESA in the two years before increased from 3.2% in 1995 to a peak of 40.8% in 2007; thereafter, ESA use declined modestly to 35.0% in 2010 (compared with 1995: aPR=9.9; CI: 9.0–10.7). Among patients who received an ESA, median time from first recorded ESA use to ESRD increased from 120 days in 1995 to 337 days in 2010. Intravenous iron administration increased from 1.2% (1995) to 12.3% (2010; aPR=8.7; CI: 7.6–10.1). The proportion of patients receiving any blood transfusions increased monotonically from 20.6% (1995) to 40.3% (2010; aPR=1.88; CI: 1.82–1.95). Mean hemoglobin concentrations were 9.5 g/dL in 1995, increased to a peak of 10.3 g/dL in 2006, and then declined moderately to 9.9 g/dL in 2010.
Conclusions and Relevance
Between 1995 and 2010, older adults approaching ESRD were increasingly more likely to be treated with ESAs, to receive intravenous iron, but also more likely to be transfused.
PMCID: PMC4286316  PMID: 24589911
chronic kidney disease; end-stage renal disease; dialysis; erythropoietin; iron; blood transfusion
6.  Trends in the Incidence, Demographics and Outcomes of End-Stage Renal Disease Due to Lupus Nephritis in the U.S., 1995–2006 
Arthritis and rheumatism  2011;63(6):1681-1688.
It is unknown whether recent advances lupus nephritis (LN) treatment have led to changes in the incidence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) secondary to LN, or in the characteristics, therapies, and outcomes of patients with LN ESRD.
Patients with incident LN ESRD (1995–2006) were identified in the US Renal Datasystem. Trends in sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were assessed. We tested for temporal changes in standardized incidence rates (SIRs) for sociodemographic groups using Poisson regression. Changes in rates of waitlisting for kidney transplant, kidney transplantation, and all-cause mortality were examined using crude and adjusted time-to-event analyses.
12,344 incident cases of LN ESRD were identified. Mean age at ESRD onset was 41 years; 81.6% were female and 49.5% African American. SIRs for LN ESRD among those ages 5–39, African Americans, and in the US Southeast increased significantly from 1995–2006. Increases in body mass index and the prevalence of both diabetes and hypertension were detected. Mean serum hemoglobin at ESRD onset increased, while that of serum creatinine decreased over time. More patients used hemodialysis and fewer peritoneal dialysis. There was a slight increase in pre-emptive kidney transplantation at ESRD onset, but kidney transplantation rates within the first three years of ESRD declined. Mortality did not change over 12 years of study.
The characteristics of LN ESRD patients and their initial therapies have changed in recent years. While SIRs rose in younger patients, among African Americans and in the South, outcomes did not improve in over a decade of evaluation.
PMCID: PMC3106117  PMID: 21445962
incidence; dialysis; transplantation; survival; lupus; nephritis; end-stage renal disease; chronic kidney disease; systemic lupus erythematosus; African American; Hispanic; race; women
7.  Incident ESRD and Treatment-Resistant Hypertension: The Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study 
Studies suggest that treatment-resistant hypertension is common and increasing in prevalence among US adults. While hypertension is a risk factor for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), few data are available on the association between treatment-resistant hypertension and ESRD risk.
Study Design
Prospective cohort study.
Setting & Participants
We analyzed data from 9,974 Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Study participants treated for hypertension without ESRD at baseline.
Treatment-resistant hypertension was defined as uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) with concurrent use of 3 antihypertensive medication classes including a diuretic or use of ≥4 antihypertensive medication classes including a diuretic regardless of BP level.
Incident ESRD was identified by linkage of REGARDS Study participants with the US Renal Data System.
During a baseline in-home study visit, BP was measured twice and classes of antihypertensive medication being taken were determined by pill bottle inspection.
Over a median follow-up of 6.4 years, there were 152 incident cases of ESRD (110 ESRD cases among 2,147 with treatment-resistant hypertension and 42 ESRD cases among 7,827 without treatment-resistant hypertension). The incidence of ESRD per 1,000 person-years for hypertensive participants with and without treatment-resistant hypertension was 8.86 (95% CI, 7.35–10.68) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.65–1.19), respectively. After multivariable adjustment, the HR for ESRD comparing hypertensive participants with versus without treatment-resistant hypertension was 6.32 (95% CI, 4.30–9.30). Of the participants who developed incident ESRD during follow-up, 72% had treatment-resistant hypertension at baseline.
BP, eGFR, and albuminuria assessed at a single time point.
Individuals with treatment-resistant hypertension are at increased risk for ESRD. Appropriate clinical management strategies are needed to treat treatment-resistant hypertension in order to preserve kidney function in this high-risk group.
PMCID: PMC4141647  PMID: 24388119
treatment-resistant hypertension; uncontrolled blood pressure; hypertension; kidney disease; end-stage renal disease; renal failure; antihypertensive medication; kidney disease risk factor
8.  Comparison of Measured GFR, Serum Creatinine, Cystatin C, and Beta-Trace Protein to Predict ESRD in African Americans With Hypertensive CKD 
Identification of persons with chronic kidney disease (CKD) who are at highest risk to progress to end stage renal disease (ESRD) is necessary to reduce the burden of kidney failure. The relative utility of traditional markers of kidney function, including estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and serum creatinine, and emerging markers of kidney function, including cystatin C and beta-trace protein (BTP), to predict ESRD and mortality has yet to be established.
Study Design
Randomized clinical trial followed by an observational cohort study.
Setting & Participants
865 African American individuals with hypertensive CKD enrolled in a clinical trial of two levels of blood pressure control and three different antihypertensive drugs as initial therapy and subsequently followed by an observational cohort study.
Quintile of measured GFR (mGFR) by iothalamate clearance, serum creatinine, serum creatinine-based estimated GFR (eGFRSCr), cystatin C, and BTP.
Outcomes and Measurements
Incidence of ESRD and mortality.
A total of 246 participants reached ESRD over a median follow-up of 102 months. The incidence rate of ESRD was higher with higher quintiles of each marker. The association between higher BTP and ESRD was stronger than those for the other markers, including mGFR. All the markers remained significantly associated with ESRD after adjustment for mGFR and relevant covariates (all p<0.05), with BTP retaining the strongest association (HR for highest versus lowest quintile, 5.7; 95% CI, 2.2-14.9). Associations with the combined endpoint of ESRD or mortality (n=390) were weaker, but remained significant for cystatin C (p=0.05) and BTP (p=0.004).
The ability of these markers to predict ESRD and mortality in other racial and ethnic groups and among individuals with CKD due to other causes is unknown.
Plasma BTP and cystatin C may be useful adjuncts to serum creatinine and mGFR in evaluating risk for progression of kidney disease.
PMCID: PMC3221777  PMID: 21944667
End-stage renal disease; beta trace protein; cystatin C; serum creatinine; iothalamate glomerular filtration rate
9.  Risk of end-stage renal disease associated with gout: a nationwide population study 
We explored the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among gout patients in a representative cohort in Taiwan.
The primary database used was the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Subjects older than 20 years without ESRD, coronary heart disease, or stroke were included in the study. The case definition of gout in the present study was gout diagnosis and medical treatment for gout. An ESRD case was defined by the presence of chronic renal failure necessitating long-term renal replacement therapy. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the risk of ESRD among gout patients.
The analysis included data of 656,108 patients who were followed up for a mean of 8.0 years. Among them, 19,963 (3.0%) patients had gout. At the end of 2008, 2,377 individuals (gout, n = 276; non-gout, n = 2,101) had ESRD, and 861 individuals (gout, n = 77, 27.9%; non-gout, n = 521, 24.8%) died due to ESRD. The rates of incidence of ESRD were 1.73 and 0.41 cases per 1,000 patient-years in the gout and non-gout groups. After adjustment for age, sex, and history of diabetes mellitus and/or hypertension, gout was associated with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.57 for ESRD (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-1.79; P < 0.001). In patients with ESRD, the adjusted HR for death in patients with gout was 0.95 (0.74-1.23, P = 0.71), which was similar to the HR obtained in patients without gout.
Gout is associated with an increased hazard for development of ESRD.
PMCID: PMC3446457  PMID: 22513212
10.  Incidence, management, and outcomes of end-stage renal disease in the elderly 
Purpose of review
The elderly constitute a substantial and growing fraction of the end-stage renal disease (ESRD) population. We review recent studies on ESRD incidence, management, and outcomes in the elderly.
Recent findings
Rates of treated ESRD among the elderly (>80 years) have risen by more than 50% in the last decade. In studies with a large number of elderly patients, median survival after dialysis initiation is modest, and although a majority have reasonable life expectancy, a substantial minority of elderly patients experience very high early mortality rates after dialysis initiation. Quality of life results are mixed – compared with younger ESRD patients or non-ESRD elderly, mental well being is similar and physical well being is reduced in elderly patients with ESRD. In several studies, elderly patients with ESRD initiating peritoneal dialysis had higher mortality rates than elderly patients with ESRD initiating hemodialysis. Strategies such as nondialytic management of ESRD or dietary protein restriction and delayed dialysis initiation may be alternatives for elderly patients wishing to avoid dialysis initiation, but further studies are needed to determine the patients best suited for these approaches. Quality improvement initiatives in geriatric ESRD care have been successfully implemented in some centers and may ultimately improve care for elderly patients with ESRD.
These findings should help to clarify some of the risks and benefits of dialysis in the elderly and may be useful in dialysis decision-making and management.
PMCID: PMC2738843  PMID: 19374012
dialysis; elderly; end-stage renal disease
11.  Association of Family History of ESRD, Prevalent Albuminuria, and Reduced GFR With Incident ESRD 
The contribution of albuminuria to the increased risk of incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in individuals with a family history of ESRD has not been well studied.
Study Design
Prospective cohort study.
Study Setting & Participants
We analyzed data for family history of ESRD collected from 19,409 participants of the Renal REGARDS (Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke) cohort study.
Family history of ESRD was ascertained by asking “Has anyone in your immediate family ever been told that he or she had kidney failure? This would be someone who is on or had been on dialysis or someone who had a kidney transplant.”
Study Outcomes
Incidence rate for ESRD.
Morning urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Incident cases of ESRD were identified through the US Renal Data System.
A family history of ESRD was reported by 11.1% of participants. Mean eGFRs for those with and without a family history of ESRD were 87.5 ± 22.2 (SD) and 86.5 ± 19.3 mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively (P = 0.05) and the respective geometric mean ACRs were 12.2 and 9.7 mg/g (P < 0.001). ESRD incidence rates for those with and without a family history of ESRD were 244.3 and 106.1/100,000 person-years, respectively. After adjusting for age, sex, and race, the ESRD HR for those with versus those without a family history of ESRD was 2.13 (95% CI, 1.18-3.83). Adjustment for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status attenuated this association (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.00-3.28), and further adjustment for baseline eGFR and ACR completely attenuated the association between family history of ESRD and incident ESRD (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 0.69-1.80).
The report of a family history of ESRD was not validated.
Family history of ESRD is common in older Americans and the increased risk of ESRD associated with a family history reflects lower GFR, higher albuminuria, and comorbid conditions.
PMCID: PMC3725825  PMID: 22078058
Race; albuminuria; end-stage renal disease; chronic kidney disease
12.  Incidence and Predictors of End Stage Renal Disease among Low-Income Blacks and Whites 
PLoS ONE  2012;7(10):e48407.
We evaluated whether black race is associated with higher incidence of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) among a cohort of blacks and whites of similar, generally low socioeconomic status, and whether risk factor patterns differ among blacks and whites and explain the poorly understood racial disparity in ESRD. Incident diagnoses of ESRD among 79,943 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) were ascertained by linkage with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) from 2002 through 2009. Person-years of follow up were calculated from date of entry into the SCCS until date of ESRD diagnosis, date of death, or September 1, 2009, whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident ESRD among black and white participants in relation to baseline characteristics. After 329,003 person-years of follow-up, 687 incident cases of ESRD were identified in the cohort. The age-adjusted ESRD incidence rate was 273 (per 100,000) among blacks, 3.5-fold higher than the rate of 78 among whites. Risk factors for ESRD included male sex (HR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), low income (HR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8 for income below vs. above $15,000), smoking (HR = 1.2; 95% CI 1.02–1.4) and histories of diabetes (HRs increasing to 9.4 (95% CI 7.4–11.9) among those with ≥20 years diabetes duration) and hypertension (HR = 2.9; 95% CI 2.3–3.7). Patterns and magnitudes of association were virtually identical among blacks and whites. After adjustment for these risk factors, blacks continued to have a higher risk for ESRD (HR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.9–3.0) relative to whites. The black-white disparity in risk of ESRD was attenuated but not eliminated after control for known risk factors in a closely socioeconomically matched cohort. Further research characterizing biomedical factors, including CKD progression, in ESRD occurrence in these two racial groups is needed.
PMCID: PMC3480508  PMID: 23110237
13.  Impact of MELD-Based Allocation on End-Stage Renal Disease after Liver Transplantation 
The proportion of patients undergoing liver transplantation (LT) with concomitant renal dysfunction markedly increased after allocation by the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was introduced. We examined the incidence of subsequent post-LT end-stage renal disease (ESRD) before and after the policy was implemented. Data on all adult deceased-donor LT recipients between 4/27/95 and 12/31/08 (n=59,242) from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients were linked with Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ESRD data. Cox regression was used to (i) compare pre-MELD and MELD eras with respect to post-LT ESRD incidence (ii) determine the risk factors for post-LT ESRD (iii) quantify the association between ESRD incidence and mortality. Crude rates of post-LT ESRD were 12.8 and 14.5 per 1,000 patient-years in the pre-MELD and MELD eras, respectively. Covariate-adjusted post-LT ESRD risk was higher in the MELD era (hazard ratio [HR] =1.15; p=0.0049). African-American race, hepatitis C, pre-LT diabetes, higher creatinine, lower albumin, lower bilirubin and sodium>141 mMol/L at LT were also significant predictors of post-LT ESRD. Post-LT ESRD was associated with higher post-LT mortality (HR=3.32; p<0.0001). The risk of post-LT ESRD, a strong predictor of post-LT mortality, is 15% higher in the MELD era. This study identified potentially modifiable risk factors of post-LT ESRD. Early intervention and modification of these risk factors may reduce the burden of post-LT ESRD.
PMCID: PMC3203341  PMID: 21883908
End-stage renal disease; Liver transplant; Model for end-stage renal disease; Mortality; Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients
14.  Epidemiology of end-stage renal disease in the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council: a systematic review 
JRSM Short Reports  2012;3(6):38.
To describe the epidemiology of end stage renal disease (ESRD).
Mixed-methods systematic review.
The countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) which consist of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman.
Defined to have ESRD or patients on regular dialysis for a minimum dialysis period of at least three months. Since many outcomes were reviewed, studies that estimated the incidence and prevalence of ESRD as outcomes should not have defined the study population as ESRD population or patients on regular dialysis. Studies where the study population mainly comprised children or pregnant woman were excluded.
Main outcome measures
The trends of the incidence, prevalence, and mortality rate of ESRD; also, causes of mortality, primary causes and co-morbid conditions associated with ESRD.
44 studies included in this review show that the incidence of ESRD has increased while the prevalence and mortality rate of ESRD in the GCC has not been reported sufficiently. The leading primary causes of ESRD recorded in the countries of the GCC is diabetes with the most prevalent co-morbid conditions being Hypertension and Hepatitis C Virus infection; the most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease and sepsis.
This review highlights that the lack of national renal registries data is a critical issue in the countries of the GCC. The available data also do not provide an accurate and updated estimate for relevant outcomes. Additionally, considering the increasing burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD), these results stressed the needs and the importance of preventative strategies for leading causes of ESRD. Furthermore, more studies are needed to describe the epidemiology of ESRD and for assessing the overall quality of renal care.
PMCID: PMC3386663  PMID: 22768372
15.  Effects of Losartan-based therapy on the incidence of end-stage renal disease and associated costs in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis in the United Kingdom 
In the Reduction of Endpoints in Non-Insulin-Dependent Diabetes Mellitus with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) study, the primary composite end point was the 2-fold increase in baseline serum creatinine concentration, the development of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), or death. The effects of losartan used for the prevention or delay of progression of diabetic nephropathy to ESRD were compared with those of conventional anti-hypertensive treatment (control) (calcium channel blockers, diuretics, α-blockers, β-blockers, and centrally acting agents), but not angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin II antagonists (AIIAs), in 1513 adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM-2) and nephropathy. Both treatment groups received conventional antihypertensive therapy (calcium channel blockers, diuretics, α-blockers, β-blockers, and/or centrally acting agents). ACE inhibitors and AIIAs were not allowed during the study period. The relative risk (RR) for composite outcome was 25% less, and the RR for ESRD was 28% less, in the losartantreated group compared with the control group.
The aim of this retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis was to use data from the RENAAL study to determine the survival benefits and lifetime direct medical costs of a losartan-based regimen for the prevention of ESRD in patients with DM-2 and nephropathy in the setting of the UK National Health Service (NHS).
This analysis used life-years saved as the effectiveness measure. The effect of losartan-based treatment on ESRD risk was confined to the trial period (3.5 years). However, survival and the lifetime direct medical costs of managing ESRD were projected beyond the trial period to incorporate the full effects of ESRD on survival and resource use. The effect of altering key variables was examined using 1-way sensitivity analyses.
ESRD-related costs were significantly lower in patients receiving losartan-based treatment compared with those in the control group (savings per patient, 7390 [95% CI, 11,366-3414; P< 0.001] [1 = US −$1.75]). Incorporation of the cost of losartan into the assessment found reduced net costs (savings per patient, 6622 [95% CI, 10,591-2653; P= 0.001]). The projected mean number of life years saved due to ESRD risk reduction with losartan was 0.44 years (95% CI, 0.16–0.71; P = 0.002). Losartan treatment was found to save costs in all cases, even if the cost of renal replacement therapy for patients with ESRD was reduced by 50%.
In this retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis using data from the RENAAL study, losartan-based treatment for the prevention or delay of progression of diabetic nephropathy to ESRD in patients with DM-2 and nephropathy was found to be potentially cost saving compared with conventional anti-hypertensive therapy from the perspective of the UK NHS.
PMCID: PMC3965974  PMID: 24678070
losartan; economic analysis; diabetic nephropathy; end-stage renal disease; ESRD; cost
16.  Comparative effectiveness studies to improve clinical outcomes in end stage renal disease: the DEcIDE patient outcomes in end stage renal disease study 
BMC Nephrology  2012;13:167.
Evidence is lacking to inform providers’ and patients’ decisions about many common treatment strategies for patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD).
The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study is funded by the United States (US) Agency for Health Care Research and Quality to study the comparative effectiveness of: 1) antihypertensive therapies, 2) early versus later initiation of dialysis, and 3) intravenous iron therapies on clinical outcomes in patients with ESRD. Ongoing studies utilize four existing, nationally representative cohorts of patients with ESRD, including (1) the Choices for Healthy Outcomes in Caring for ESRD study (1041 incident dialysis patients recruited from October 1995 to June 1999 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2009), (2) the Dialysis Clinic Inc (45,124 incident dialysis patients initiating and receiving their care from 2003–2010 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), (3) the United States Renal Data System (333,308 incident dialysis patients from 2006–2009 with complete outcome ascertainment through 2010), and (4) the Cleveland Clinic Foundation Chronic Kidney Disease Registry (53,399 patients with chronic kidney disease with outcome ascertainment from 2005 through 2009). We ascertain patient reported outcomes (i.e., health-related quality of life), morbidity, and mortality using clinical and administrative data, and data obtained from national death indices. We use advanced statistical methods (e.g., propensity scoring and marginal structural modeling) to account for potential biases of our study designs. All data are de-identified for analyses. The conduct of studies and dissemination of findings are guided by input from Stakeholders in the ESRD community.
The DEcIDE Patient Outcomes in ESRD Study will provide needed evidence regarding the effectiveness of common treatments employed for dialysis patients. Carefully planned dissemination strategies to the ESRD community will enhance studies’ impact on clinical care and patients’ outcomes.
PMCID: PMC3554422  PMID: 23217181
17.  Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease after Cancer Nephrectomy in Taiwan: A Nationwide Population-Based Study 
PLoS ONE  2015;10(5):e0126965.
The conclusions of population-based studies examining the risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD) after nephrectomy among patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) remain inconclusive. In this study, we sought to examine whether patients with RCC undergoing radical nephrectomy (RN) have higher risk of ESRD compared to those undergoing partial nephrectomy (PN).
Nationwide population-based retrospective cohort of 7670 patients with RCC who underwent RN or PN between 2000 and 2011 as recorded in the Taiwan National Health Insurance in-patient claims data were analyzed. The primary outcome of interest was the occurrence of ESRD requiring regular renal hemodialysis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression model was performed to assess the risk.
The median follow-up for the post-propensity matched cohort (1212 PN and 2424 RN) was 48 months. Seventy patients (2.9%) developed ESRD among those who underwent RN, for an incidence rate of 6.9 cases per 1000 person-years. In contrast, only 23 patients (1.9%) developed ESRD among patients who underwent PN, for an incidence rate of 5.5 cases per 1000 person-years. Despite the higher incidence rate of ESRD among RN, the aIRR (RN/PN) was 1.26 (95% CI 0.78-2.01), which was not statistically significant.
This Taiwan nationwide population-based study suggests that patients with RCC undergoing RN do not have significantly higher risk of developing ESRD compared to those undergoing PN.
PMCID: PMC4439046  PMID: 25993556
18.  United States Renal Data System public health surveillance of chronic kidney disease and end-stage renal disease 
The United States Renal Data System (USRDS) began in 1989 through US Congressional authorization under National Institutes of Health competitive contracting. Its history includes five contract periods, two of 5 years, two of 7.5 years, and the fifth, awarded in February 2014, of 5 years. Over these 25 years, USRDS reporting transitioned from basic incidence and prevalence of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), modalities, and overall survival, as well as focused special studies on dialysis, in the first two contract periods to a comprehensive assessment of aspects of care that affect morbidity and mortality in the second two periods. Beginning in 1999, the Minneapolis Medical Research Foundation investigative team transformed the USRDS into a total care reporting system including disease severity, hospitalizations, pediatric populations, prescription drug use, and chronic kidney disease and the transition to ESRD. Areas of focus included issues related to death rates in the first 4 months of treatment, sudden cardiac death, ischemic and valvular heart disease, congestive heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and infectious complications (particularly related to dialysis catheters) in hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis patients; the burden of congestive heart failure and infectious complications in pediatric dialysis and transplant populations; and morbidity and access to care. The team documented a plateau and decline in incidence rates, a 28% decline in death rates since 2001, and changes under the 2011 Prospective Payment System with expanded bundled payments for each dialysis treatment. The team reported on Bayesian methods to calculate mortality ratios, which reduce the challenges of traditional methods, and introduced objectives under the Health People 2010 and 2020 national health care goals for kidney disease.
PMCID: PMC4455192  PMID: 26097778
end-stage renal disease; public health; surveillance; United States Renal Data System
19.  Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality 
JAMA  2014;311(24):2518-2531.
The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression endpoint, end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or doubling of serum creatinine (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of −57% or greater) is a late event, limiting feasibility of nephrology clinical trials.
To characterize the association of decline in eGFR with subsequent progression to ESRD, with implications for using lesser declines in eGFR as potential alternative endpoints for CKD progression. Since most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, we also investigated mortality risk.
Data Sources
Individual meta-analysis of up to 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts.
Study Selection
Cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine over 1-3 years and outcome data.
Data Extraction and Synthesis
Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random effects meta-analysis took place between July 2012 and September 2013 with baseline eGFRs during 1975-2012.
Main Outcomes and Measures
ESRD (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percent change in eGFR over 2 years adjusted for potential confounders and first eGFR.
The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of ESRD and mortality were exponentially higher with larger eGFR decline. Among participants with baseline eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI 22.3-46.3) and 5.4 (4.5-6.4) for −57% and −30% eGFR changes, respectively. However, changes of −30% or greater were much more common than changes of −57% (6.9% (6.4-7.4%) vs. 0.79% (0.52-1.06%) in the whole consortium). This association was strong and consistent across length of baseline (1 or 3 years), baseline eGFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD for eGFR changes of −57%, −40%, −30% and 0% were 99% (95-100%), 83% (71-93%), 64% (52-77%), vs. 18% (15-22%) respectively at baseline eGFR of 35 ml/min/1.73m2. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (71-82%), 60% (56-63%), 50% (47-52%), vs. 32% (31-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern.
Conclusions and Relevance
Declines in eGFR smaller than doubling of serum creatinine occur more commonly and are strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in eGFR, such as 30% reduction over 2 years, as an alternative endpoint for CKD progression.
PMCID: PMC4172342  PMID: 24892770
20.  Incidence of Treatment for End-Stage Renal Disease Among Individuals With Diabetes in the U.S. Continues to Decline 
Diabetes Care  2010;33(1):73-77.
We examined trends in incidence of treatment for diabetes-related end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in the U.S.
Using the U.S. Renal Data System, we obtained the number of individuals having diabetes listed as primary diagnosis who initiated ESRD treatment between 1990 and 2006. Incidence was calculated using the estimated U.S. population with diabetes from the National Health Interview Survey and then was age adjusted based on the 2000 U.S. standard population. Trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression.
The number of individuals who began diabetes-related ESRD treatment increased from 17,727 in 1990 to 48,215 in 2006. From 1990 to 1996, the age-adjusted diabetes-related ESRD incidence increased somewhat from 299.0 to 343.2 per 100,000 diabetic population (P = 0.45). However, from 1996 to 2006, the age-adjusted diabetes-related ESRD incidence decreased by 3.9% per year (P < 0.01) from 343.2 to 197.7 per 100,000 diabetic population. Among individuals with diabetes aged <45 years, diabetes-related ESRD incidence decreased by 4.3% per year (P < 0.01) from 1990 to 2006. Among older individuals, incidence increased during the 1990s but decreased in later years, by 3.9% per year (P < 0.01) among individuals aged 45–64, by 3.4% per year (P < 0.01) among individuals aged 65–74 years, and by 2.1% per year (P = 0.02) among individuals aged ≥75 years.
Diabetes-related ESRD incidence in the diabetic population has declined in all age-groups, probably because of a reduction in the prevalence of ESRD risk factors, improved treatment and care, and other factors.
PMCID: PMC2797989  PMID: 20040673
21.  Erythropoiesis-stimulating Agent Use among Patients with Lupus Nephritis Approaching End-stage Renal Disease 
Little is known about erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) utilization among lupus nephritis (LN) patients with incipient ESRD. We aimed to identify sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with ESA use among incident LN ESRD patients.
Among all individuals age ≥18 with incident ESRD from 1995-2008 in the U.S. Renal Data System (USRDS), we identified those with systemic lupus erythematosus (ICD-9 code 710.0) as the cause of ESRD. ESA use at ESRD onset was ascertained from the Medical Evidence Report. Year of onset, age, sex, race/ethnicity, medical insurance, employment status, residential region, clinical factors and comorbidities were considered potentially associated with ESA use in multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses.
We identified 12,533 individuals with incident LN ESRD (1% of entire population). Of those, 4,288 (34%) received an ESA preceding ESRD. In multivariable-adjusted models, ESA users had higher serum albumin and hemoglobin concentrations, were more likely to be women, and to live in the Northeast. Conversely, Medicaid beneficiaries, the uninsured, unemployed, African Americans, Hispanics, and those with IV drug use, congestive heart failure and obesity had lower ESA use.
Among all U.S. patients and those with LN who developed ESRD, approximately one third received ESAs. Patient sex, race, age, medical insurance, residential region and clinical factors were significantly associated with ESA therapy. While there are no guidelines for ESA use in LN patients approaching ESRD, there has been wide sociodemographic variation, raising questions about ESA prescription practices.
PMCID: PMC3963515  PMID: 24672742
Lupus nephritis; End-stage renal disease; Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents; Anemia; Disparity; Race; Ethnicity; Access to care; Sociodemographic
22.  Time to Renal Disease and End-Stage Renal Disease in PROFILE: A Multiethnic Lupus Cohort 
PLoS Medicine  2006;3(10):e396.
Renal involvement is a serious manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE); it may portend a poor prognosis as it may lead to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The purpose of this study was to determine the factors predicting the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD in a multi-ethnic SLE cohort (PROFILE).
Methods and Findings
PROFILE includes SLE patients from five different United States institutions. We examined at baseline the socioeconomic–demographic, clinical, and genetic variables associated with the development of renal involvement and its progression to ESRD by univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Analyses of onset of renal involvement included only patients with renal involvement after SLE diagnosis (n = 229). Analyses of ESRD included all patients, regardless of whether renal involvement occurred before, at, or after SLE diagnosis (34 of 438 patients). In addition, we performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis of the variables associated with the development of renal involvement at any time during the course of SLE.
In the time-dependent multivariable analysis, patients developing renal involvement were more likely to have more American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE, and to be younger, hypertensive, and of African-American or Hispanic (from Texas) ethnicity. Alternative regression models were consistent with these results. In addition to greater accrued disease damage (renal damage excluded), younger age, and Hispanic ethnicity (from Texas), homozygosity for the valine allele of FcγRIIIa (FCGR3A*GG) was a significant predictor of ESRD. Results from the multivariable logistic regression model that included all cases of renal involvement were consistent with those from the Cox model.
Fcγ receptor genotype is a risk factor for progression of renal disease to ESRD. Since the frequency distribution of FCGR3A alleles does not vary significantly among the ethnic groups studied, the additional factors underlying the ethnic disparities in renal disease progression remain to be elucidated.
Fcγ receptor genotype is a risk factor for progression of renal disease to ESRD but does not explain the ethnic disparities in renal disease progression.
Editors' Summary
Systemic lupus erythematosis (SLE, commonly known as “lupus”) is an illness of many manifestations that appear to result from the immune system attacking components of the body's own cells. One of the unfortunate effects of SLE is kidney damage, which can, in a minority of patients, progress to kidney failure (formally called “end-stage renal disease,” or ESRD). Compared to White Americans, other ethnic groups tend to develop renal complications of lupus more often and with worse outcomes.
Why Was This Study Done?
It is unclear why some people with lupus develop kidney problems. The purpose of this US-based study was to confirm the factors that increase the risk of kidney damage and kidney failure, particularly in racial and ethnic minority patients, and to determine which of these factors accelerate the pace of kidney disease. Knowing these risk factors could allow the development and targeting of interventions, such as screening tests and preventive treatments, to prevent long-term loss of kidney function in patients with lupus.
What Did the Researchers Do and Find?
The researchers measured a number of factors in a multi-ethnic group of 1,008 patients with lupus, almost half of whom had some degree of kidney involvement. They found that those who developed kidney damage after being diagnosed with lupus tended to be younger, to have had lupus for a longer time, and to have experienced more effects of lupus in general than those who did not have kidney involvement. Those who developed kidney problems were also more likely to have been unemployed, to have had fewer years of formal education, and to have had high blood pressure before developing kidney involvement. African-American and Texan Hispanic individuals with lupus were more likely to develop kidney involvement, and tended to develop it more rapidly, than White Americans or Puerto Rican Hispanic ethnicity. Actual kidney failure (ESRD requiring dialysis or kidney transplantation) was more likely to occur among Texan Hispanics with kidney involvement than in the other ethnic groups. Diabetes and high blood pressure were not found to predict ESRD, but people with a particular variant of a protein that helps antibodies bind to cells (know as Fc-gamma receptor IIIa, or FcγRIIIa) were found to be more likely to develop ESRD, and to develop it more quickly.
What Do These Findings Mean?
These results suggest that the emergence and progression of kidney disease in patients with lupus depends on medical, genetic, and socioeconomic factors. Because no single test or intervention can be expected to address all of these factors, those treating patients with lupus must remain aware of the complexity of their patients lives at a variety of levels. In particular, ethnic disparities in the risk of serious kidney disease remain to be addressed.
Additional Information.
Please access these Web sites via the online version of this summary at
MedlinePlus page on lupus
Lupus Foundation of America
American College of Rheumatology pages on lupus
Wikipedia entry on lupus (note: Wikipedia is a free Internet encyclopedia that anyone can edit)
PMCID: PMC1626549  PMID: 17076550
23.  Variation in Initial Kidney Replacement Therapy for End-Stage Renal Disease Due to Lupus Nephritis in the U.S. 
Arthritis care & research  2011;63(12):1642-1653.
Little is known about patterns of use of initial kidney replacement therapies among patients with LN end-stage renal disease (LN ESRD). We aimed to identify sociodemographic and clinical factors associated with variation in initial kidney replacement therapies among LN ESRD patients.
Patients with incident LN ESRD (1995–2006) were identified in the US Renal Data System. Age, sex, race, ethnicity, medical insurance, employment status, residential region, clinical factors and comorbidities were considered as potential predictors of ESRD treatment choice -- peritoneal dialysis (PD), hemodialysis (HD) or pre-emptive kidney transplantation -- in age-adjusted and multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analyses.
Of 11,317 individuals with incident LN ESRD, 82.0% initiated HD; 12.2% PD, and 2.8% underwent pre-emptive kidney transplantation. Receiving initial PD was significantly associated with earlier calendar year, female sex, higher albumin and hemoglobin, and lower serum creatinine levels. African Americans (vs. Whites), Medicaid beneficiaries and those with no health insurance (vs. private insurance), and those unemployed (vs. employed) had significantly reduced PD initiation. Comorbidities including congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease and inability to ambulate were also associated with decreased PD. Many sociodemographic and clinical factors favoring PD were associated with pre-emptive kidney transplant (vs. dialysis) as well.
Few patients with LN ESRD receive initial PD or pre-emptive kidney transplantation. Race, ethnicity, employment and medical insurance type are strongly associated with initial kidney replacement therapy choice. Future studies need to investigate the appropriateness of sociodemographic and clinical variation and the comparative effectiveness of kidney replacement therapies for LN ESRD.
PMCID: PMC3227771  PMID: 22058067
peritoneal dialysis; hemodialysis; kidney transplantation; survival; lupus; nephritis; end-stage renal disease; chronic kidney disease; systemic lupus erythematosus; African American; Hispanic; race; women
24.  Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease in Adults with Chronic Kidney Disease 
Circulation  2012;127(5):569-574.
Atrial fibrillation (AF) frequently occurs in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the long-term impact of development of AF on the risk of adverse renal outcomes in patients with CKD is unknown. In this study, we determined the association between incident AF and risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) among adults with CKD.
Methods and Results
We studied adults with CKD (defined as persistent glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 by the CKD-EPI equation) enrolled in Kaiser Permanente Northern California who were identified between 2002–2010 and who did not have prior ESRD or previously documented AF. Incident AF was identified using primary hospital discharge diagnoses and/or two or more outpatient visits for AF. Incident ESRD was ascertained from a comprehensive health plan registry for dialysis and renal transplant. Among 206,229 adults with CKD, 16,463 developed incident AF. During a mean follow-up of 5.1± 2.5 years, there were 345 cases of ESRD that occurred after development of incident AF (74 per 1000 person-years) compared with 6505 cases of ESRD during periods without AF (64 per 1000 person-years, P<0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, incident AF was associated with a 67% increase in rate of ESRD (hazard ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.46–1.91).
Incident AF is independently associated with increased risk of developing ESRD in adults with CKD. Further study is needed to identify potentially modifiable pathways through which AF leads to a higher risk of progression to ESRD.
PMCID: PMC3676734  PMID: 23275377
arrhythmia; fibrillation; kidney
25.  Risk of End-Stage Renal Disease Following Live Kidney Donation 
JAMA  2014;311(6):579-586.
Risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in kidney donors has been compared with risk faced by the general population, but the general population represents an unscreened, high-risk comparator. A comparison to similarly screened healthy nondonors would more properly estimate the sequelae of kidney donation.
To compare the risk of ESRD in kidney donors with that of a healthy cohort of nondonors who are at equally low risk of renal disease and free of contraindications to live donation and to stratify these comparisons by patient demographics.
Design, Settings, and Participants
A cohort of 96 217 kidney donors in the United States between April 1994 and November 2011 and a cohort of 20 024 participants of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) were linked to Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data to ascertain development of ESRD, which was defined as the initiation of maintenance dialysis, placement on the waiting list, or receipt of a living or deceased donor kidney transplant, whichever was identified first. Maximum follow-up was 15.0 years; median follow-up was 7.6 years (interquartile range [IQR], 3.9-11.5 years) for kidney donors and 15.0 years (IQR, 13.7-15.0 years) for matched healthy nondonors.
Main Outcomes and Measures
Cumulative incidence and lifetime risk of ESRD.
Among live donors, with median follow-up of 7.6 years (maximum, 15.0), ESRD developed in 99 individuals in a mean (SD) of 8.6 (3.6) years after donation. Among matched healthy nondonors, with median follow-up of 15.0 years (maximum, 15.0), ESRD developed in 36 nondonors in 10.7 (3.2) years, drawn from 17 ESRD events in the unmatched healthy nondonor pool of 9364. Estimated risk of ESRD at 15 years after donation was 30.8 per 10 000 (95% CI, 24.3-38.5) in kidney donors and 3.9 per 10 000 (95% CI, 0.8-8.9) in their matched healthy nondonor counterparts (P < .001). This difference was observed in both black and white individuals, with an estimated risk of 74.7 per 10 000 black donors (95% CI, 47.8-105.8) vs 23.9 per 10 000 black nondonors (95% CI, 1.6-62.4; P < .001) and an estimated risk of 22.7 per 10 000 white donors (95% CI, 15.6-30.1) vs 0.0 white nondonors (P < .001). Estimated lifetime risk of ESRD was 90 per 10 000 donors, 326 per 10 000 unscreened nondonors (general population), and 14 per 10 000 healthy nondonors.
Conclusions and Relevance
Compared with matched healthy nondonors, kidney donors had an increased risk of ESRD over a median of 7.6 years; however, the magnitude of the absolute risk increase was small. These findings may help inform discussions with persons considering live kidney donation.
PMCID: PMC4411956  PMID: 24519297

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