To test the validity of the Framingham, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk function in the prediction of risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in populations with normal glucose tolerance (NGT), intermediate hyperglycemia, and type 2 diabetes.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Calibration and discrimination of the three prediction models were tested using prospective data for 1,482 Caucasian men and women, 50–75 years of age, who participated in the Hoorn Study. All analyses were stratified by glucose status.
During 10 years of follow-up, a total of 197 CHD events, of which 43 were fatal, were observed in this population, with the highest percentage of first CHD events in the diabetic group. The Framingham and UKPDS prediction models overestimated the risk of first CHD event in all glucose tolerance groups. Overall, the prediction models had a low to moderate discriminatory capacity. The SCORE risk function was the best predictor of fatal CHD events in the group with NGT (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.79 [95% CI 0.70–0.87]), whereas the UKPDS performed better in the intermediate hyperglycemia group (0.84 [0.74–0.94]) in the estimation of fatal CHD risk. After exclusion of known diabetic patients, all prediction models had a higher discriminatory ability in the group with diabetes.
The use of the Framingham function for prediction of the first CHD event is likely to overestimate an individual's absolute CHD risk. In CHD prevention, application of the SCORE and UKPDS functions might be useful in the absence of a more valid tool.
To compare the predictability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.
Among 1,275 registered type 2 diabetes patients in the health center, 621 subjects with type 2 diabetes participated in the study. Well-trained examiners measured the carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), carotid plaque, and ankle brachial index (ABI). The subject's 10-year risk of coronary heart disease was calculated according to the FRS, UKPDS, and SCORE risk scores. These three risk scores were compared to the areas under the curve (AUC).
The odds ratios (ORs) of all risk scores increased as the quartiles increased for plaque, IMT, and ABI. For plaque and IMT, the UKPDS risk score provided the highest OR (95% confidence interval) at 3.82 (2.36, 6.17) and at 6.21 (3.37, 11.45). For ABI, the SCORE risk estimation provided the highest OR at 7.41 (3.20, 17.18). However, no significant difference was detected for plaque, IMT, or ABI (P = 0.839, 0.313, and 0.113, respectively) when the AUCs of the three risk scores were compared. When we graphed the Kernel density distribution of these three risk scores, UKPDS had a higher distribution than FRS and SCORE.
No significant difference was observed when comparing the predictability of the FRS, UKPDS risk engine, and SCORE risk estimation for carotid atherosclerosis and peripheral arterial disease in Korean type 2 diabetic patients.
Risk Assessment; Peripheral Arterial Disease; Carotid Artery Thrombosis; Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2
Coronary heart disease (CHD) is a major cause of mortality among people with diabetes. The objective of this study was to examine the trend in an estimated 10-year risk for developing CHD among adults with diagnosed diabetes in the U.S.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Data from 1,977 adults, aged 30–79 years, with diagnosed diabetes who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1999–2000 to 2007–2008 were used. Estimated risk was calculated using risk prediction algorithms from the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS), the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study, and the Framingham Heart Study.
Significant improvements in mean HbA1c concentrations, systolic blood pressure, and the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol occurred. No significant linear trend for current smoking status was observed. The estimated UKPDS 10-year risk for CHD was 21.1% in 1999–2000 and 16.4% in 2007–2008 (Plinear trend < 0.001). The risk decreased significantly among men, women, whites, African Americans, and Mexican Americans.
The estimated 10-year risk for CHD among adults with diabetes has improved significantly from 1999–2000 to 2007–2008. Sustained efforts in improving risk factors should further benefit the cardiovascular health of people with diabetes.
Patients with type 2 diabetes have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Few studies have evaluated the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk simultaneously using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine and non-invasive vascular tests in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.
Participants (n=380; aged 20 to 81 years) with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes were free of clinical evidence of CVD. The 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke risks were calculated for each patient using the UKPDS risk engine. Carotid intima media thickness (CIMT), flow mediated dilation (FMD), pulse wave velocity (PWV) and augmentation index (AI) were measured. The correlations between the UKPDS risk engine and the non-invasive vascular tests were assessed using partial correlation analysis, after adjusting for age, and multiple regression analysis.
The mean 10-year CHD and 10-year stroke risks were 14.92±11.53% and 4.03±3.95%, respectively. The 10-year CHD risk correlated with CIMT (P<0.001), FMD (P=0.017), and PWV (P=0.35) after adjusting for age. The 10-year stroke risk correlated only with the mean CIMT (P<0.001) after adjusting for age. FMD correlated with age (P<0.01) and systolic blood pressure (P=0.09). CIMT correlated with age (P<0.01), HbA1c (P=0.05), and gender (P<0.01).
The CVD risk is increased at the onset of type 2 diabetes. CIMT, FMD, and PWV along with the UKPDS risk engine should be considered to evaluate cardiovascular disease risk in patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes.
Atherosclerosis; Cardiovascular risk; Diabetes mellitus, type 2; United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine; Vascular function
Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent.
Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) for CHD and stroke, respectively.
Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062), heart failure (1408), stroke (1451), and mortality (3661). The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics) for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730), heart failure (0.753), stroke (0.688), and mortality (0.719). The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke.
Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading “Type 2 Diabetes” and entitled, “Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality.” This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician’s choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.
Type 2 diabetes mellitus; Prediction; Propensity; Coronary heart disease; Heart failure; Stroke; Mortality; Electronic health record; Hypoglycemic agents
Treatment guidelines recommend the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine for predicting cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes, although validation studies showed moderate performance. The methods used in these validation studies were diverse, however, and sometimes insufficient. Hence, we assessed the discrimination and calibration of the UKPDS risk engine to predict 4, 5, 6 and 8 year cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes.
The cohort included 1,622 patients with type 2 diabetes. During a mean follow-up of 8 years, patients were followed for incidence of CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Discrimination and calibration were assessed for 4, 5, 6 and 8 year risk. Discrimination was examined using the c-statistic and calibration by visually inspecting calibration plots and calculating the Hosmer–Lemeshow χ2 statistic.
The UKPDS risk engine showed moderate to poor discrimination for both CHD and CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 for both 5 year CHD and CVD risks), and an overestimation of the risk (224% and 112%). The calibration of the UKPDS risk engine was slightly better for patients with type 2 diabetes who had been diagnosed with diabetes more than 10 years ago compared with patients diagnosed more recently, particularly for 4 and 5 year predicted CVD and CHD risks. Discrimination for these periods was still moderate to poor.
We observed that the UKPDS risk engine overestimates CHD and CVD risk. The discriminative ability of this model is moderate, irrespective of various subgroup analyses. To enhance the prediction of CVD in patients with type 2 diabetes, this model should be updated.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-010-1960-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorised users.
Calibration; Cardiovascular disease; Coronary heart disease; Discrimination; Epidemiology; Multiple imputation; Prediction; Type 2 diabetes mellitus; Validation
Objective—To examine the validity of estimates of coronary heart disease (CHD) risk by the Framingham risk function, for European populations.
Design—Comparison of CHD risk estimates for individuals derived from the Framingham, prospective cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM), Dundee, and British regional heart (BRHS) risk functions.
Setting—Sheffield Hypertension Clinic.
Patients—206 consecutive hypertensive men aged 35-75 years without preexisting vascular disease.
Results—There was close agreement among the Framingham, PROCAM, and Dundee risk functions for average CHD risk. For individuals the best correlation was between Framingham and PROCAM, both of which use high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. When Framingham was used to target a CHD event rate > 3% per year, it identified men with mean CHD risk by PROCAM of 4.6% per year and all had CHD event risks > 1.5% per year. Men at lower risk by Framingham had a mean CHD risk by PROCAM of 1.5% per year, with 16% having a CHD event risk > 3.0% per year. BRHS risk function estimates of CHD risk were fourfold lower than those for the other three risk functions, but with moderate correlations, suggesting an important systematic error.
Conclusion—There is close agreement between the Framingham, PROCAM, and Dundee risk functions as regards average CHD risk, and moderate agreement for estimates within individuals. Taking PROCAM as the external standard, the Framingham function separates high and low CHD risk groups and is acceptably accurate for northern European populations, at least in men.
Keywords: ischaemic heart disease; prevention; risk factors
To develop a simple, patient self-report based coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score for adults without previously diagnosed CHD (Personal HEART score) we used the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study, a prospective cohort of individuals 45–64 at baseline, to develop a measure for 10-year risk for CHD (n=14,343). The variables evaluated for inclusion included age, history of diabetes mellitus, history of hypercholesterolemia, history of hypertension, family history of CHD, smoking, physical activity and body mass index (BMI). Ten-year risk for CHD events defined as a myocardial infarction, fatal CHD or cardiac procedure. The new measure was compared to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The Personal HEART score for men included age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, physical activity and family history. Among men, the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for predicting 10-year CHD for the Personal HEART score (0.65) was significantly different from the FRS (0.69) (p=.03) but not the European SCORE (0.62) (p=.12). The Personal HEART score for women included age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and BMI. The area under the curve for the Personal HEART score (0.79) for women was not significantly different from the FRS (0.81) (p=.42) and performed better than the European SCORE (0.69) (p=.01). In conclusion, the Personal HEART score identifies 10-year risk for CHD based on self-report data, is similar in predictive ability to the FRS and the European SCORE and has the potential for easy self-assessment.
Coronary Heart Disease; heart disease risk
The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Risk Engine (version 3) and the Framingham risk equations (2008) in estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence in three populations: 1) individuals with known diabetes; 2) individuals with nondiabetic hyperglycemia, defined as A1C ≥6.0%; and 3) individuals with normoglycemia defined as A1C <6.0%.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
This was a population-based prospective cohort (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer-Norfolk). Participants aged 40–79 years recruited from U.K. general practices attended a health examination (1993–1998) and were followed for CVD events/death until April 2007. CVD risk estimates were calculated for 10,137 individuals.
Over 10.1 years, there were 69 CVD events in the diabetes group (25.4%), 160 in the hyperglycemia group (17.7%), and 732 in the normoglycemia group (8.2%). Estimated CVD 10-year risk in the diabetes group was 33 and 37% using the UKPDS and Framingham equations, respectively. In the hyperglycemia group, estimated CVD risks were 31 and 22%, respectively, and for the normoglycemia group risks were 20 and 14%, respectively. There were no significant differences in the ability of the risk equations to discriminate between individuals at different risk of CVD events in each subgroup; both equations overestimated CVD risk. The Framingham equations performed better in the hyperglycemia and normoglycemia groups as they did not overestimate risk as much as the UKPDS Risk Engine, and they classified more participants correctly.
Both the UKPDS Risk Engine and Framingham risk equations were moderately effective at ranking individuals and are therefore suitable for resource prioritization. However, both overestimated true risk, which is important when one is using scores to communicate prognostic information to individuals.
The aim of this study was to evaluate a modified UKPDS risk engine in order to establish a risk prediction benchmark for the general diabetes population.
Data sources were summary demographic and risk factor data from the major type 2 diabetes mellitus outcomes studies, including ACCORD, ADVANCE, VADT, RECORD, PROactive, ADOPT, and BARI 2D. Patients in these studies spanned a wide spectrum of disease, from drug-naïve to insulin-dependent. Cardiovascular events/major adverse coronary events (CVE/MACE) were primary or safety end points. Overall observed rates for cardiovascular events/MACE were summarized, and the observed annualized event rates were calculated using linear approximation. Simulation studies were then conducted using original (cardiovascular history excluded) and modified (cardiovascular history included) United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) models; the predicted event rates were then compared with the observed event rates for all studies. The consistency of the predicted rates derived from each model was then evaluated using descriptive statistics and linear regression.
The original UKPDS model tended to overestimate event rates across studies. The ratio of predicted events versus observed MACE ranged from 0.9 to 2.0, with mean of 1.5 ± 0.4 and a coefficient of variation of 26% (R2 = 0.80). However, cardiovascular risk predictions were more precise using a modified UKPDS model; the ratio of predicted versus observed MACE events ranged from 1.8 to 2.4, with a mean of 2.1 ± 0.25 and a coefficient of variation of 13% (R2 = 0.94).
A modified UKPDS model which includes adjustments for prior cardiovascular history has the potential for use as a tool for benchmarking and may be useful for predicting cardiovascular rates in clinical studies. This modification could be further evaluated, recalibrated, and validated using patient-level information derived from prospective clinical studies to yield greater predictability.
type 2 diabetes mellitus; macrovascular disease; outcomes; United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study; modeling
Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is an integral part of atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD). CHD is the leading cause of death in industrialized nations and there is a constant effort to develop preventative strategies. The emphasis is on risk stratification and primary risk prevention in asymptomatic patients to decrease cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. The Framingham Risk Score predicts CHD events only moderately well where family history is not included as a risk factor. There has been an exploration for new tests for better risk stratification and risk factor modification. While the Framingham Risk Score, European Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project, and European Prospective Cardiovascular Munster study remain excellent tools for risk factor modification, the CAC score may have additional benefit in risk assessment. There have been several studies supporting the role of CAC score for prediction of myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. It has been shown to have great scope in risk stratification of asymptomatic patients in the emergency room. Additionally, it may help in assessment of progression or regression of coronary artery disease. Furthermore, the CAC score may help differentiate ischemic from nonischemic cardiomyopathy.
coronary calcium scoring; coronary artery disease; CAC; cardiomyopathy; angiography; chest pain; Framingham; risk stratification; risk factors
To develop a cardiovascular risk assessment tool that is feasible and easy to use in primary care (general practice (GP) model).
Prospective cohort study.
23 towns in the United Kingdom.
3582 women aged 60 to 79 years who were free of coronary heart disease (CHD) at entry into the British Women's Heart and Health Study.
Main outcome measures
Predictive performance of a GP model compared with the standard Framingham model for both CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD).
The Framingham tool predicted CHD events over 5 years accurately (predicted 5.7%, observed 5.5%) but overpredicted CVD events (predicted 10.5%, observed 6.8%). In higher‐risk groups, Framingham overpredicted both CHD and CVD events and was poorly calibrated for this cohort. Including C‐reactive protein and fibrinogen with standard Framingham risk factors did not improve discrimination of the model. The GP model, which used age, systolic blood pressure, smoking habit and self‐rated health (all of which can be easily obtained in one surgery visit) performed as well as the Framingham risk tool: area under the receiver operating curve discrimination statistic was 0.66 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62 to 0.70) for CHD and 0.67 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.71) for CVD compared with 0.65 (95% CI 0.61 to 0.68) and 0.66 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.69) for the corresponding Framingham models.
An alternative risk assessment based on only a simple routine examination and a small number of pertinent questions may be more useful in the primary care setting. This model appears to perform well but needs to be tested in different populations.
A clinical–genetic function (Cardio inCode®) was generated using genetic variants associated with coronary heart disease (CHD), but not with classical CHD risk factors, to achieve a more precise estimation of the CHD risk of individuals by incorporating genetics into risk equations [Framingham and REGICOR (Registre Gironí del Cor)].
The objective of this study was to conduct an economic analysis of the CHD risk assessment with Cardio inCode®, which incorporates the patient’s genetic risk into the functions of REGICOR and Framingham, compared with the standard method (using only the functions).
A Markov model was developed with seven states of health (low CHD risk, moderate CHD risk, high CHD risk, CHD event, recurrent CHD, chronic CHD, and death). The reclassification of CHD risk derived from genetic information and transition probabilities between states was obtained from a validation study conducted in cohorts of REGICOR (Spain) and Framingham (USA). It was assumed that patients classified as at moderate risk by the standard method were the best candidates to test the risk reclassification with Cardio inCode®. The utilities and costs (€; year 2011 values) of Markov states were obtained from the literature and Spanish sources. The analysis was performed from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System, for a life expectancy of 82 years in Spain. An annual discount rate of 3.5 % for costs and benefits was applied.
For a Cardio inCode® price of €400, the cost per QALY gained compared with the standard method [incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)] would be €12,969 and €21,385 in REGICOR and Framingham cohorts, respectively. The threshold price of Cardio inCode® to reach the ICER threshold generally accepted in Spain (€30,000/QALY) would range between €668 and €836. The greatest benefit occurred in the subgroup of patients with moderate–high risk, with a high-risk reclassification of 22.8 % and 12 % of patients and an ICER of €1,652/QALY and €5,884/QALY in the REGICOR and Framingham cohorts, respectively. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the stability of the study results.
Cardio inCode® is a cost-effective risk score option in CHD risk assessment compared with the standard method.
To develop tables that report the life expectancy associated with levels of major modifiable risk factors for patients with type 2 diabetes.
Methods and results
A set of tables reporting life-expectancy stratified by age–sex groups for combinations of modifiable risk was constructed based on predictions from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. This model is based on a system of parametric proportional hazards risk equations for estimating mortality and vascular complications of diabetes that have been estimated from 3642 patients from the UKPDS. The tables show substantial potential gains in life expectancy within every age group from modifying major risk factors. The estimated life expectancy of men at age of 55 years with type 2 diabetes, 5 years after diagnosis, varies between 13.2 years for a patient who smokes, has systolic blood pressure of 180 mmHg, a total:HDL cholesterol ratio of 8, and HbA1c of 10%, and 21.1 years for a non-smoker with SBP of 120 mmHg, total/HDL ratio of 4, and HbA1c of 6%.
Life expectancy tables provide a potentially useful tool of conveying prognostic information to people with type 2 diabetes and suggest substantial scope for increasing longevity by improving modifiable risk factors.
Risk factors; Cardiovascular disease; Type 2 diabetes; Life expectancy; Mathematical modelling and simulation; Education
Background Guidelines for coronary heart disease (CHD) prevention recommend using multifactorial risk prediction algorithms, particularly the Framingham risk score. We sought to examine whether adding information on job strain to the Framingham model improves its predictive power in a low-risk working population.
Methods Our analyses are based on data from the prospective Whitehall II cohort study, UK. Job strain among 5533 adults (mean age 48.9 years, 1666 women) was ascertained in Phases 1 (1985–88), 2 (1989–90) and 3 (1991–93). Variables comprising the Framingham score (blood lipids, blood pressure, diabetes and smoking) were measured at Phase 3. In men and women who were CHD free at baseline, CHD mortality and non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI) were ascertained from 5-yearly screenings and linkage to mortality and hospital records until Phase 7 (2002–04).
Results A total of 160 coronary deaths and non-fatal MIs occurred during the mean follow-up period of 11.3 years. The addition of indicators of job strain to the Framingham score increased the C-statistics from 0.725 [95% confidence intervals (95% CIs): 0.575–0.854] to only 0.726 (0.577–0.855), corresponding to a net reclassification improvement of 0.7% (95% CIs: −4.2 to 5.6%). The findings were similar after inclusion of definite angina in the CHD outcome (352 total cases) and when using alternative operational definitions for job strain.
Conclusion In this middle-aged low-risk working population, job strain was associated with an increased risk of CHD. However, when compared with the Framingham algorithm, adding job strain did not improve the model's predictive performance.
Coronary heart disease; prevention; primary prevention; public health; risk assessment; risk factors
To estimate baseline cardiovascular risk of 1,123 participants in the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics (DIAD) study and to assess cardiac event rates and the effect of screening on outcomes in these higher-risk participants.
RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS
Baseline cardiovascular risk was assessed using four established methods: Framingham score, UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) risk engine, criteria of the French-Speaking Association for the Study of Diabetes and Metabolic Diseases, and the presence or absence of metabolic syndrome. Cardiac events (cardiac death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) were assessed during the 4.8-year follow-up in participants with intermediate/high cardiovascular risk.
By various risk-stratification approaches, 53–75% of participants were defined as having intermediate or high cardiovascular risk. The prevalence of inducible ischemia on screening in these individuals ranged from 21 to 24%, similar to lower-risk participants (19–23%). Cardiac event rates were greater in intermediate-/high-risk versus low-risk groups, but this was only significant for the UKPDS risk engine (4.2 vs. 1.2%, P = 0.002). The annual cardiac event rate was <1% in all risk groups, except in the high-risk UKPDS group (∼2% per year). In intermediate-/high-risk participants randomized to screening versus no screening, 4.8-year cardiac event rates were similar (2.5–4.8% vs. 3.1–3.7%).
A substantial portion of the DIAD population was defined as having intermediate/high baseline cardiovascular risk. Nevertheless, their annual cardiac event rate was low and not altered by routine screening for inducible ischemia.
Recent studies show that retinal vascular signs such as quantitative retinal vascular caliber are associated with an increased risk of incident coronary heart disease (CHD), but whether these retinal vascular signs add to the prediction of CHD over and above traditional CHD risk factors has not been addressed. We investigated whether these signs add to the prediction of CHD over and above the Framingham risk score amongst people (n=9,155) without diabetes selected from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. Incident CHD was ascertained using standardized methods and retinal vascular caliber and other retinal signs were measured from retinal photographs. After a mean of 8.8 years of follow up, there were 700 incident CHD events. Women with wider retinal venular caliber (hazard ratio 1.27 per 1 standard deviation increase [95% confidence interval, 1.08, 1.50]) and narrower retinal arteriolar caliber (1.31 per 1 standard deviation decrease [1.10, 1.56]) had a higher risk of incident CHD after adjusting for the Framingham risk score variables. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve increased from 0.695 to 0.706 (1.7% increase) with the addition of retinal vascular caliber to the Framingham risk model. The risk prediction models with and without the retinal vascular caliber both fitted the data and were well calibrated for women. In men, retinal vascular caliber was not associated with CHD risk after adjustment. Other retinal vascular signs were not associated with 10-year incident CHD in men or women. In conclusion, although retinal vascular caliber independently predicts CHD risk in women, the incremental predictive ability over that of the Framingham model is modest, and unlikely to translate meaningfully into clinical practice.
Coronary disease; retinal vascular disease; retinal imaging; risk prediction
Background and Purpose
The Framingham coronary heart disease (CHD) risk score (FRS) estimates 10-year risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and CHD death. Since preventive approaches to CHD and stroke are similar, a composite outcome may be more appropriate. We compared 10-year risk of 1) MI or CHD death, and 2) stroke, MI, or CHD death, among individuals free of vascular disease.
The Northern Manhattan Study contains a prospective, population-based study of stroke- and CHD-free individuals ≥40 years of age, followed for a median of 10 years for vascular events. FRS was calculated for each individual, and for each category of predicted risk, Kaplan-Meier observed 10-year cumulative probabilities were calculated for 1) MI or CHD death and 2) stroke, MI, or CHD death. The cumulative probability of (1) was subtracted from (2), and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the difference were obtained with 1000 bootstrap samples. Using stratified analyses by race-ethnicity, we compared risk differences between race-ethnic groups.
Among 2613 participants (53% Hispanic, 25% non-Hispanic black and 20% non-Hispanic white), observed 10-year risk of MI or CHD death was 14.20%. With stroke in the outcome, observed risk was 21.98% (absolute risk difference 7.78%, 95% CI 5.86-9.75%). The absolute risk difference among blacks was significantly larger than among whites (p=0.01).
In this multi-ethnic urban population, adding stroke to the risk stratification outcome cluster resulted in a 55% relative increase in estimated risk, and crossing of the absolute risk threshold (>20% over 10 years) considered for preventive treatments such as statins.
Epidemiology; Stroke Management; Risk Factors
We assessed whether a novel programme to evaluate/communicate predicted coronary heart disease (CHD) risk could lower patients' predicted Framingham CHD risk vs. usual care.
The Risk Evaluation and Communication Health Outcomes and Utilization Trial was a prospective, controlled, cluster-randomised trial in nine European countries, among patients at moderate cardiovascular risk. Following baseline assessments, physicians in the intervention group calculated patients' predicted CHD risk and were instructed to advise patients according to a risk evaluation/communication programme. Usual care physicians did not calculate patients' risk and provided usual care only. The primary end-point was Framingham 10-year CHD risk at 6 months with intervention vs. usual care.
Of 1103 patients across 100 sites, 524 patients receiving intervention, and 461 receiving usual care, were analysed for efficacy. After 6 months, mean predicted risks were 12.5% with intervention, and 13.7% with usual care [odds ratio = 0.896; p = 0.001, adjusted for risk at baseline (17.2% intervention; 16.9% usual care) and other covariates]. The proportion of patients achieving both blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol targets was significantly higher with intervention (25.4%) than usual care (14.1%; p < 0.001), and 29.3% of smokers in the intervention group quit smoking vs. 21.4% of those receiving usual care (p = 0.04).
A physician-implemented CHD risk evaluation/communication programme improved patients' modifiable risk factor profile, and lowered predicted CHD risk compared with usual care. By combining this strategy with more intensive treatment to reduce residual modifiable risk, we believe that substantial improvements in cardiovascular disease prevention could be achieved in clinical practice.
The value of the Framingham equation in predicting cardiovascular risk in African Americans and patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is unclear. The purpose of the study was to evaluate whether the addition of CKD and race to the Framingham equation improves risk stratification in hypertensive patients.
Participants in the Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial (ALLHAT) were studied. Those randomized to doxazosin, age greater than 74 years, and those with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD) were excluded. Two risk stratification models were developed using Cox proportional hazards models in a two-thirds developmental sample. The first model included the traditional Framingham risk factors. The second model included the traditional risk factors plus CKD, defined by eGFR categories, and stratification by race (Black vs. Non-Black). The primary outcome was a composite of fatal CHD, nonfatal MI, coronary revascularization, and hospitalized angina.
There were a total of 19,811 eligible subjects. In the validation cohort, there was no difference in C-statistics between the Framingham equation and the ALLHAT model including CKD and race. This was consistent across subgroups by race and gender and among those with CKD. One exception was among Non-Black women where the C-statistic was higher for the Framingham equation (0.68 vs 0.65, P=0.02). Additionally, net reclassification improvement was not significant for any subgroup based on race and gender, ranging from −5.5% to 4.4%.
The addition of CKD status and stratification by race does not improve risk prediction in high-risk hypertensive patients.
coronary disease; chronic renal insufficiency; African Americans; risk assessment; Framingham
Little is understood about the role of parental emotional care in contributing to the risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). We evaluated associations between perceived quality of parental emotional care and calculated 10-year risk for CHD.
The study sample was composed of 267 participants from the New England Family Study. Quality of parental emotional care was measured using a validated short version of the Parental Bonding Instrument (PBI) as the average care scores for both parents (range: 0-12), with higher scores indicating greater care. Ten-year CHD risk was calculated using the validated Framingham Risk Algorithm that incorporates the following prevalent CHD risk factors: age, sex, diabetes, smoking, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and blood pressure. Multiple linear regression assessed associations of PBI with calculated CHD risk after adjusting for childhood socioeconomic status, depressive symptomatology, educational attainment and body mass index.
Among females, a one-unit increase in the parental emotional care score resulted in a 4.6% (p = .004) decrease in the 10-year CHD risk score, after adjusting for covariates. There was no association between parental emotional care score and calculated CHD risk score in males (p = .22).
Quality of parental emotional care was inversely associated with calculated 10-year CHD risk in females, and not males. While the gender differences need further investigation, and these findings require replication, these results suggest that the early childhood psychosocial environment may confer risk for CHD in adulthood.
coronary heart disease; early childhood environment; parental bonding instrument
According to Brazilian National Data Survey diabetes is the fifth cause for hospitalization and is one of the ten major causes of mortality in this country.
to stratify the estimated cardiovascular risk (eCVR) in a population of type 2 diabetics (T2DM) according to the Framingham prediction equations as well as to determine the association between eCVR with metabolic and clinical control of the disease.
From 2000 to 2001 a cross-sectional multicenter study was conducted in 13 public out-patients diabetes/endocrinology clinics from 8 Brazilian cities. The 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) was estimated by the prediction equations described by Wilson et al (Circulation 1998). LDL equations were preferably used; when patients missed LDL data we used total cholesterol equations instead.
Data from 1382 patients (59.0% female) were analyzed. Median and inter-quartile range (IQ) of age and duration of diabetes were 57.4 (51-65) and 8.8 (3-13) years, respectively without differences according to the gender. Forty-two percent of these patients were overweight and 35.4% were obese (the prevalence of higher BMI and obesity in this T2DM group was significantly higher in women than in men; p < 0.001). The overall estimated eCVR in T2DM patients was 21.4 (13.5-31.3). The eCVR was high (> 20%) in 738 (53.4%), intermediate in 202 (14.6%) and low in 442 (32%) patients. Men [25.1(15.4-37.3)] showed a higher eCVR than women [18.8 (12.4-27.9) p < 0.001]. The most common risk factor was high LDL-cholesterol (80.8%), most frequently found in women than in men (p = 0.01). The median of risk factors present was three (2-4) without gender differences. Overall we observed that 60 (4.3%) of our patients had none, 154(11.1%) one, 310 (22.4%) two, 385 (27.9%) three, 300 (21.7%) four, 149 (10.5%) five and six, (2%) six risk factors. A higher eCVR was noted in overweight or obese patients (p = 0.01 for both groups). No association was found between eCVR with age or a specific type of diabetes treatment. A correlation was found between eCVR and duration of diabetes (p < 0.001), BMI (p < 0.001), creatinine (p < 0.001) and triglycerides levels (p < 0.001) but it was not found with HbA1c, fasting blood glucose and post-prandial glucose. A higher eCVR was observed in patients with retinopathy (p < 0.001) and a tendency in patients with microalbuminuria (p = 0.06). Conclusion: our study showed that in this group of Brazilian T2DM the eCVR was correlated with the lipid profile and it was higher in patients with microvascular chronic complications. No correlation was found with glycemic control parameters. These data could explain the failure of intensive glycemic control programs aiming to reduce cardiovascular events observed in some studies.
The Framingham Global Cardiovascular Disease (FRS-CVD) risk assessment is a proposed alternative to assessing hard coronary heart disease (FRS-CHD) event risk. Beyond heart attack and death, FRS-CVD risk adds the endpoints of cerebrovascular disease, angina, heart failure and peripheral vascular disease.
We sought to estimate the population impact of using FRS-CVD instead of FRS-CHD risk prediction on U.S. adults.
We analyzed FRS-CHD and FRS-CVD risk in men age 45–74 and women age 55–74 without cardiovascular disease or diabetes, using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2005–2006. We stratified the population into 10-year risk categories: low: <6%, moderate ≥6- <10%, moderate high ≥10- <20% and high ≥20% by both risk models, assessing change in risk category distribution and achievement of lipid goals.
We analyzed 1,020 subjects who statistically represent about 50 million U.S. adults. Using FRS-CVD, 63% of men and 74% of women increase at least one risk category compared to FRS-CHD. Overall, the low risk population drops from 52% to 16% and the high-risk group increases from 4% to 20%. Of the subjects changing risk categories, 30% will now fail to meet their new corresponding lipid goals.
FRS-CVD endpoints are more comprehensive, yet the population implications of such a change may be profound. Utilizing a FRS-CVD risk model significantly increases the intermediate and high-risk groups, thus increasing the number of individuals eligible for novel risk assessment tools such as hs-CRP, coronary calcium scoring and more frequent use of pharmacotherapy.
NHANES; epidemiology; primary prevention; risk factors; risk models
We tested the ability of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and the online ATP III risk estimator to estimate risk and to predict 10-year and longer term coronary heart disease (CHD) death in younger adults (age 18–39 years). Although prediction with individual risk factors has been tested in individuals less than 30 years, current multivariate risk prediction strategies have not been applied to prediction of clinical CHD in this age range.
We included 10,551 male participants of the Chicago Heart Association Detection Project in Industry (CHA) who were ages 18 to 39 years and free of baseline CHD and diabetes at enrollment in 1967–1973. CHD risk was estimated using both FRS and ATP-III online risk estimator for each individual. Men were stratified into deciles according to the magnitude of predicted risk calculated from measured baseline risk factors (CHA-predicted risk). Observed CHD mortality rates for 10-, 20-, and 30-years of follow-up were compared with estimated risks. CHD death rates were low across 30-years of follow-up.
The Framingham Risk Score remained below 10% for all deciles of CHA-predicted risk in the 18 to 29 year old cohort. Framingham-predicted risk reached 12% only in the 30 to 39 year old cohort in the highest decile of CHA-predicted risk, despite substantial risk factor burden.
Neither method classified individuals under 30 years of age as high risk despite substantial risk factor burden. Future clinical guidelines should consider alternative strategies to estimate and communicate risk in populations below age 30.
OBJECTIVE—To compare the relative accuracy of cardiovascular disease risk prediction methods based on equations derived from the Framingham heart study.
DESIGN—Risk factor data were collected prospectively from subjects being evaluated by their primary care physicians for prevention of cardiovascular disease. Projected cardiovascular risks were calculated for each patient with the Framingham equations, and also estimated from the risk tables and charts based on the same equations.
SETTING—12 primary care practices (46 doctors) in Birmingham.
PATIENTS—691 subjects aged 30-70 years.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES—Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the Framingham based risk tables and charts for treatment thresholds based on projected cardiovascular disease or coronary heart disease risk.
RESULTS—59 subjects (8.5%) had projected 10 year coronary heart disease risks ⩾ 30%, and 291 (42.1%) had risks ⩾ 15%. At equivalent projected risk levels (10 year coronary heart disease ⩾ 30% and five year cardiovascular disease ⩾ 20%), the original Sheffield tables and those from New Zealand have the same sensitivities (40.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 26.6% to 57.8% v 41.2%, 95% CI 28.7% to 57.3%) and specificities (98.6%, 95% CI 97.2% to 99.3% v 99.7%, 95% CI 98.8% to 100%). Modifications to the Sheffield tables improve sensitivity (91.4%, 95% CI 81.3% to 96.9%) but reduce specificity (95.8%, 95% CI 93.9% to 97.3%). The revised joint British recommendations' charts have high specificity (98.7%, 95% CI 97.5% to 99.5%) and good sensitivity (84.7%, 95% CI 71.0% to 93.0%).
CONCLUSIONS—The revised joint British recommendations charts appear to have the best combination of sensitivity and specificity for use in primary care patients.
Keywords: Framingham study; cardiovascular risk assessment